sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ae757e1ca5d9e490fb171140f81c0f96638a3628 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x767ff3caaea87512574cc6843a60615852470988cdf5f859f8f26a72d9300161 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-urawa-vs-monterrey | Will Monterrey beat Urawa? | 73,243,131 | 73,243,131 |
bb76b42bc2b30af6a4a7e3e3bd9a5f95a41989ae | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xccea5355e4461d2097feb33e593b576c8a61fa3d2c7f4264c6d0a3a290632aef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat RB Salzburg? | 73,285,812 | 73,285,812 |
9b93db833e22a800513479263618d3cfbed1b7c4 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xcf537d36b560667773f45d92c627c9cd0ff34e971d2ecdee4d27caa2a6c15c84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-90-min-result | Will Chelsea beat PSG? | 73,958,964 | 73,958,964 |
230ea6ab4509331ff8ae295513a91787acf827fa | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x95582a77d43bbc9f57ddbdf6e41611162442c67f9c36774eeceba90584bf5638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-90-min-result | Will PSG beat Chelsea? | 73,958,974 | 73,958,974 |
9abc95717d38ebb0df856e57e058fe13925da474 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xf4c11da7a7ea3841589d46e060486c37f7ffa920fc27048d0ca27cf11cbe9769 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-fc-cincinnati-vs-inter-miami | MLS: Will FC Cincinnati beat Inter Miami? | 74,082,003 | 74,082,003 |
c312bcdf8374d6224fc7cdb958499b954808107b | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xe0db0803f2f134a3e434c30987574f3e2862eee669e448267af494cc01e039dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-atlanta-united-vs-charlotte | MLS: Will Atlanta United vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw? | 74,189,475 | 74,189,475 |
f07c97327ebb313670c81aff6afbbcec45bd77f2 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x67fd113949971cb8c9fe960d266e1f5e1340519713140f6a43024136fc93fe19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-new-england-vs-orlando-city | MLS: Will Orlando City beat New England Revolution? | 74,189,509 | 74,189,509 |
9dfd31bec013a483fb89384c194916373649b3e0 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xc650d8077e17b85554ce731c33583b88e262d2fe12efdf6a7c085b152284b08a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-september-14-8pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,625 on September 14 at 8PM ET? | 76,477,973 | 76,477,973 |
6a56d804987b50b9883c1faef572b92afc5c7709 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x5a8b04e5977de8aec334889c5e69ac0d7994beb9dadb99d163ecc7e50a4fde25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | bun-b04-moe-2025-09-21 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-21? | 76,736,305 | 76,736,305 |
6297c22073377ee3b8e68e98797f10f9c4f98729 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x7a4adc930784ac8d76cc4cc84c898a9360851e75bf734bd80a31e428aae5fde7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-september-25-8pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,825 on September 25 at 8PM ET? | 76,921,044 | 76,921,044 |
049356ce3e6adc2c30f060f9947807bdb788464d | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x00738c4af393f92997d966fb3a228820450769cb9e486d4d71fcd6588b98e0c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | lib-sao-lqu-2025-09-25 | Will São Paulo FC vs. LDU de Quito end in a draw? | 76,921,292 | 76,921,292 |
d462ed18776542d416977c46cca32ffe6096eb61 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xb42c0af3ce2b3db4bab3d7419bf99a2f2706e41b2ce0c5c372adf896e4e8f50b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.68254 | lib-sao-lqu-2025-09-25 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-09-25? | 76,921,292 | 76,921,292 |
bbb8e3798aab066b80e037ec2ac29a642efba592 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xfb9f3c7cf4297da46ef14b1ee306ba96816ec13ad22f37b93b6c7eab972c8764 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | lib-sao-lqu-2025-09-25 | Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-09-25? | 76,921,292 | 76,921,292 |
ad429b663571f7a3557c26e3cf9a5915f59b5711 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xbc1fa675a2049c5397e5d51c8adcdf48b4e04f1bf3d90f23df40d560f315ef37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | mex-atl-nec-2025-09-27 | Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-09-27? | 77,004,207 | 77,004,207 |
bd707fdacc6d0698fb008fd43a1957108cbac686 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x08e9146bfbc1f4b9bc1f5adeddb2b90bdfb9bea653cbb1565ab65a89c7e9d91f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | mex-pac-asl-2025-09-27 | Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-09-27? | 77,004,224 | 77,004,224 |
d07e597b6e74c4e491b519b2bf78e10f94fc4239 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xc20fc6aa86e665263437aeaed39293534d7d31f42506799f1fc7e4527fe6fad4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.472212 | mex-pue-gua-2025-09-26 | Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-09-26? | 77,004,249 | 77,004,249 |
641185fb45bd0e35a437519f1c8afb478caac852 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xea9f7dfb799ab01927c9327decdea35ec79a3031380a73068909e9413b189f4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | mex-pue-gua-2025-09-26 | Will Club Puebla win on 2025-09-26? | 77,004,249 | 77,004,249 |
7dd6cfb6b537dcffd062fa42c4cc7202f3df95bf | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x73d2306dd8702884acbcad32b9a417193834edc69f5aa0f78cb25c8698bc02dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | arg-new-est-2025-09-30 | Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-09-30? | 77,125,367 | 77,125,367 |
30ab349512015eddc128583365dda2fa5b97576a | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xf0f10f53d9188442adab4165ed411b4c38394536808a8c042612b70ef26de560 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | mls-mia-chi-2025-09-30 | Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2025-09-30? | 77,126,510 | 77,126,510 |
dc1deaffad1b8986f14a05ebb577de41201bf92e | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xa74395511cd7794ce319d92b85b3aa3d1a233c3d74a2620e0d7585a16d9b1738 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | mls-mia-chi-2025-09-30 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-30? | 77,126,617 | 77,126,617 |
b0bb0a4885d29568f75e8e61380796fcac494623 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x426e36138b216dc6302e27165750e4ebab3fb638f3a0aec66f811616ee673073 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | tur-koc-eyu-2025-10-04 | Will Eyüpspor win on 2025-10-04? | 77,265,143 | 77,265,143 |
da99c4a6f962c2f7954b1a50f578d189433f5120 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x806c0b92414951ca2ed814848244c018cc49a5a934fe5b3725bcaaaa6f87fb55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | por-gil-ama-2025-10-04 | Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-10-04? | 77,265,170 | 77,265,170 |
c0b1d98697f748cd4a3e3de604a57fa816bfce21 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x7f5340769dfa1f75b58869fb62b10ef804159451014d3ccfac3de64259d7aaff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | sea-int-cre-2025-10-04 | Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-04? | 77,265,224 | 77,265,224 |
bf61b7cb5c6c21e757c03c199597e1a36dc9b1d4 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0xea46ef037ff0b1f7fac983ebaafe8ad2c31d1928a9d6ba176f5eba025cffaae6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | bun-ein-bay-2025-10-04 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-04? | 77,265,247 | 77,265,247 |
23c9d3d0590432ef508893c17f430ea8e0fe10fc | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x580bb89f2e06ee0b715b536b3f1f56adc87e95437f15b81fb07be3dde0c14b63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | por-gil-ama-2025-10-04 | Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-10-04? | 77,265,264 | 77,265,264 |
8d45769e5c7f06918f2110c556d45fc7216fe188 | 0x1e428a521e8c7ad9eb1547b48d29f0d76f07b020 | 0x4e1c130ea05c0beb25bc5f7e1ced0359651b9abeac000529709aa96e17d80435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-eve-tot-2025-10-26 | Will Everton win on 2025-10-26? | 78,230,182 | 78,230,182 |
898f062ddea5d49fcff77bffbe484ebd26b2cf99 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x9acf4f48c618ceca367f4a602e5be5762b3796ff38e572d2cfc1a8a0d83835c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C?
Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | 64,345,301 | 64,345,301 |
b39f0394f245469b94e235a32f8ec28d1a8a0c73 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xc7220901f4240c463dc30055759c5b986a47180cc8a1d2512f54606b7fe8fbca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C?
Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c
Predict the use... | yes | 1 | october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | 64,345,307 | 64,345,307 |
cf00f6e6fa8d4325b4238e9b03bb7d91fa42acf8 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x9207e7926afe58c5254583139f3af0dd8f9de4ac81bf9cba1678cd0742a5f258 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on May 14? | 71,528,247 | 71,528,247 |
b1b82a3971ef2ec2f8f461059b21b3a328535190 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xaef1c5acfbafe460761794351812b0582e1a5bfad43a213da0e5cf0e11715020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62–63°F on May 14? | 71,528,623 | 71,528,623 |
0c7063dd63a11ecb99ff22a1a083271afb0a819b | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x251366473678dedf5c41b3064517c3c0a18f7b36939c6cc39296ff847d3759ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66–67°F on May 14? | 71,552,092 | 71,552,092 |
221063399d6f5b8df9a16627956d56afe21a40e1 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x7f7081482972484a2131e081a27740b80e5275117a9e99c20e919f55207b8a81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 9–16? | 71,552,092 | 71,552,092 |
c7d95861df708e9be7f21be01ceef0a66edc8456 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x95ad0324cf6dc785adcd19e2808a6846e7b9ca8bf2ac552d3018e35a8710adfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on May 14? | 71,552,092 | 71,552,092 |
1eec8cc803973a8bb4b88d884d728066c7813117 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xc3023cf014c3d5a005f0a578e0aa255675de8d75f16bb71ce291e88487a1edf6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68–69°F on May 14? | 71,552,092 | 71,552,092 |
7677b99f9b5f71f697f7f2ff2e9a8ae055725382 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xebb52c87f788c8ccedbaffd37250c7382c3e5e7d52b4ee9979c3485262be6d3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70–71°F on May 14? | 71,552,092 | 71,552,092 |
f5c82411e702f708d56892b9067dc5acf08b7d78 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x1a79243a6c63d062adde66148d833cb773e9e8a66208b4d0f6837a7cf7e7b635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | 71,569,391 | 71,569,391 |
900860bf2b62dee4a031f27db42845449411b84d | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x7fcb2756e82d89e12c46ac49631d52052561b4eab112f1c45fe9133b78d83fff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | 71,569,391 | 71,569,391 |
6f443e30c12ea31768783c18896adfad409cef3c | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xaab25788b68541ba2d9641aae9f54dc16278de71bfe7176f7fab1d1a7e9717b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | 71,569,391 | 71,569,391 |
327ab4be40c15c27dc4854bf6f5c869f01ef2553 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xbef37b66d35fd122eff52dcf7ff9b5aa9aaa1d0600d9ce2ece8c81c4704b319a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | 71,569,391 | 71,569,391 |
d7fa08545ad46474aa51d85728d7cba4350fb0e8 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xbf42244e60c170a1b94ea131379f2efd522d000262c8bb74e2f122a70d6855f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | 71,569,391 | 71,569,391 |
56961f2244fe06b6eec8d33b1b090feb58e2e78d | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xf7134922c37c694e285c56ff6e02c7c8b0c6adbe7f89f512591e57d81e306f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or below on May 15? | 71,569,413 | 71,569,413 |
e914d7155ab53f0f1c619802ec5d01de426543c0 | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xc22aff0ee7777a2b315ae1ab38f7466f0373c4a959b101f72a6426f9c0b33c6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-15-5pm-et-785 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | 71,569,429 | 71,569,429 |
69553e36a15d36df0e242f62165327cd96c8e7bc | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0xff9f568990bdeaa5837754d362b8a85c09cb47bd6febe25871721963cea8a800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-23 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on May 23? | 71,716,446 | 71,726,196 |
a4f26b9fd7a00e44aafc444c18d4373984fedefb | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x05540d4272bd78c5f75e379be3be9697c4284383af506996883c0e1cd9dbd300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on May 19 at 5 PM ET? | 71,719,482 | 71,719,482 |
77215ecc04ae331fcd770db002c7477cd26eb6da | 0x1e72de480bd746da82e68f77b0677d1df644c16a | 0x0a82fa94fc953ed195a78f240005b3e48cdb2648f9d622608693c629ac1c1600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C? | Event: october-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? | 71,763,873 | 71,763,873 |
0cb345dbb4671e9148abd183a5dd28b2651ca9bf | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xc40cbb2d7f5d2c43c624bd5b1d0b18cd3d0682b3937363ec7c1ad1d13bee107e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.062008 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 77,755,431 | 77,761,493 |
8569aa21ea2b0ebea68475ccaa3d784b37bbbcf7 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
Target market:
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election
Predict the user's choice and co... | yes | 0.010702 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 77,770,502 | 78,550,508 |
f6e433d4c6a6aab50cb058718daf4d56131579a5 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xc586d15be76278848a26c761c2fcf70f8cebca71815cfab83e656ff5c6ec13a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | no | 0.000134 | presidential-election-winner-2028 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 77,830,481 | 77,830,481 |
9f35fe9f1356a1edaec5bcc0b2347575a16e3850 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xfd6176f8c9a59105f80e060a77c4099881c5f2d9e0ceab88e55cf978462fab7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | no | 0.000013 | presidential-election-winner-2028 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 77,830,481 | 77,830,481 |
3afde751c77854d749cd600809ff340df3dcfed3 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x2053d8515f1b8cbeea4ccdb56e60e89c2617e43a8660d95166b8e71d27865277 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | no | 0.000002 | presidential-election-winner-2028 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 77,830,481 | 77,855,327 |
ddb051dc13fd20e6ccc32269adb1c7e4ff181a4a | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xf5571f4dc93715d0f543ef27c5529196f9872677cff6893b6644b95c54f8f7a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7AM ET | 79,051,539 | 79,055,571 |
49afda2363cb54047ff70a6f049d21a81d97ebc8 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xbcc6b3367bba90dd1bfaa3e0bd0010bd746fa444b079ca7bcae221187b86ce6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8AM ET | 79,053,771 | 79,057,071 |
9f7d3d6fdcfc7bbeaf406375447261624c140316 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x4af5ad62b9b5bb081dc1b817850a81f9c267656d195ca846e8b9c419a033fef4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9AM ET | 79,055,571 | 79,058,850 |
73efcb0d02ce00e584076d4d7e290f4ae6a04365 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x0d9887bc654465817368f4895b68ca3f93c37c4ee9ce60d7df4b0a8a10fa73a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10AM ET | 79,057,071 | 79,060,950 |
b3a174239aefbc9b218ed06ec71256c9f077808e | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x3c5c56e5fbd03a794e9775a1aaaa4e0ca461276efa011e93d43fec50806b4cb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12PM ET | 79,060,649 | 79,064,549 |
219ba98d1b46b503faa3c4cc87330ede381af2e5 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xee5477d3ff2ce88487ea51359bdbf83dd3557b5ca0e3b382f2c1dbc08449f314 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2PM ET | 79,064,549 | 79,065,908 |
5e2448f6b7ab19758268f1eff4803305b7ddc081 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x47d2ec4e5baba2a9a89a3baabea02229f6a408b2f482a7a452d07d001c4466d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3PM ET | 79,066,345 | 79,067,320 |
1f96bf64f176a7209154db52ae9586022ec51935 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xe186e0b53bd8697248ddaccd9657290613e2de0c5c80860d2ff73bee2ef6bc93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4PM ET | 79,068,220 | 79,072,335 |
0f82a0f884df5c1b2c65212d2b011c9bbad8fca4 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xc6a4435c939c45a1b0d87cb6eab27903c26a70e3cd3d06158fb2d1c5b1d416bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5PM ET | 79,069,635 | 79,071,136 |
a474bf17e17f4e6fc6d9dc3ce4578cf3f314bd3a | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x54a2360e85847b3b0fdf0c18e2505396b1805156bb0baedbeef40980ff3dbe58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | up | 0.220726 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6PM ET | 79,071,735 | 79,072,936 |
8cb2cba3b34cc5abb4bf00f3307b73f94313268c | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xaf2262a5db0543d2fab7a0271d0ae1cacf95fb4d95de816df85fae1ea64eb621 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7PM ET | 79,073,235 | 79,077,735 |
dafb1ef70910a4b08bfdb5083cd8c6b20c8c3af8 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x99a2865871a039db15daa448bfb0a66ffc4cc3296183f89bf61a86e2599e1140 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9PM ET | 79,076,835 | 79,081,035 |
f3ca9f77099a2ccb3a27361b2ed216f5e71a4718 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xebda143e93418567e99224c7d21a4bcc36ad21285dc0c0e93de2f86b948bf949 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10PM ET | 79,079,234 | 79,082,835 |
9964b97d54a9d551e9f5ec165db97c8fb13a7ace | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xe228980a4fe0b4ed5d1a72c8484154e04848be569e4102dc0a0701a43326ddb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11PM ET | 79,080,434 | 79,084,335 |
38440104671135a0cec41b135ab53f8b54d5474d | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xe108b1696abe26823d02a0802ec86478ef6d9e3655ae6764f777eac524d3690e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1AM ET | 79,084,034 | 79,088,142 |
dc73f7956dbd44e217b320169ef520a4a1c443e6 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xdabac7cb4b59aba8aa99fa3e1c42122ba27284c2a995a0111df28259b2d08beb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 12AM ET | 79,085,772 | 79,092,244 |
1a6cda2e3e25cf43e06cad4019f3e4ff1bc8f40b | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x34c830fce250362506c65b6197b034b70f91d23cfd0fb9d2fdfcf47974d15b0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | up | 0.262396 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 5AM ET | 79,092,244 | 79,092,844 |
484d7be97e288e96862dc6de2d4411727dbc1f8b | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x4be28e6c5d74fcc6600910ee0141dab0897a1d70badbc3589cc569d32cace521 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6AM ET | 79,093,144 | 79,097,044 |
12c4bb697a4cad10ab41b76fb298591ea65814b5 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x2f7c70aad7577407115b66ca79e3b319782acf6f4043cbdfb2e5bcf491d68a74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8AM ET | 79,097,044 | 79,100,643 |
98116fd4afb49305ba9181825a8b0c850acb8023 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x3d1e9efa138ce6c7b7a7c2840b8e640eeb32e19f07ce26f988e1475dca5f7d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9AM ET | 79,098,844 | 79,102,143 |
6302a864182f9f123dfc1f20114a5d62553a1513 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x39b5758a739b3e97824e65c74e8fe5de102a8158a7c6a2ce177e251d3c598064 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 12PM ET | 79,104,451 | 79,107,750 |
787d3b1a70e2af01c2e751d1b4d056419286e9bc | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x7a879d48366ef720d8ec13be0fcd04f082ef31154d9eda00e36b744b70d58b8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1PM ET | 79,105,650 | 79,109,850 |
1977830255f9ce4ae72d9c277782532bd5ff0d48 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x1e98bb8ab579a7866d89bad3f19ed8b954fdd2f8da9088e08d4df2fa177526e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 2PM ET | 79,107,450 | 79,111,050 |
27c41cec892377807015706014a2799d5c9bab32 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x53515ea01f38411b6b7a10f8d61e38c30ddcddf14c439c4f341e1ff83a71ad85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 3PM ET | 79,109,250 | 79,113,450 |
e7762d49aa85db68d4e8f59c9bba7a22e59f2038 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x81a4416e7e5820fd2bea431f00defa6652299b5b7cdc075a1b64be2e240b6d24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 4PM ET | 79,111,050 | 79,115,550 |
365afd37de654e4654e871a4f53b03dcd8d12805 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xcd1f16a7caa7cbd4b4a00442f45b3d584db3003513450bd16b7355235574f56e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06200808799273406
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 5PM ET | 79,113,151 | 79,116,750 |
7b69c63002bd3ac87a8a37cd0c91551d0599e1d0 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x4586e6a8cd2b6cf07d418c85f34173829f2b58e46da2d8c01a740e91edb4be3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01070203464652236
2. Question: Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00013442... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6PM ET | 79,114,650 | 79,118,250 |
5f402f062c079a4eb5ce17db4daee0f8959bd20c | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x6b7df31fc88d1b8722dd99d146489147e02215db1fe7ca64c38205d45264d13b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0001344245944272432
2. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 7PM ET | 79,116,450 | 79,117,949 |
b4aed8f6af93f1e072a77fc1b2ae66ba954c8b75 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xf11ffa5e0c07b1ea51f22833650b3527444ef9956c91c3789bfdf878140cde59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.261665917808052e-05
2. Question: Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8PM ET | 79,118,250 | 79,124,551 |
ce9ecdcd6fcf54266fae0194c1558afff18d3e3d | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x4cf79d682b5ee2f44346d375cda963f8e96c3546576baa9e63d7bfbaf610026c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2028 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.217504917317154e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9PM ET | 79,120,050 | 79,123,950 |
f0d6a62bcf972008463e730c3afa0aea133deec3 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x124e1fed1b565bce67b181d4f8b130fc36198e2a8dd19749003aaa264e70ec93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 11PM ET | 79,123,651 | 79,127,550 |
51863079da3f43ef89cf523fe74019459530d49b | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x1a7999c71f8b875bdc903734a2107fbcf8d7dfdcbc9d3c51731a8c1460e11898 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 12AM ET | 79,125,450 | 79,129,351 |
ae578126ef5064f07653be328e0ac1ce5cce9fba | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x3b5e5484fd4ab230a18cd42bdab433e53c1a1bb1106339fc5be35585f5bfb152 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | 79,130,850 | 79,132,549 |
112cf8ddd3ea8204c63a96135066b683e3a5d7ab | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x34573b54208a979c179ce3e2fdbdb273d3fb84ea7e28026c6fa97fbfab975ea2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | 79,132,650 | 79,136,251 |
db7c36217c0cff346455a281c37835bc38d4c9be | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x35113bbb2109918c7f17ddbbcd8522a742600967ad763e0e43a2ccf5488039b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5AM ET | 79,134,451 | 79,137,840 |
fd7a1a2d6137483743ba8d0890d1a22f05f81b48 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x114bfbb63439a9bfa6488ca1ea17e4d76f67f96be16d6479f475844adeb9ab8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6AM ET | 79,136,251 | 79,140,450 |
4aee8941ae48bfdd3885cb1640ebba7d6713bf12 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x3712e8c21cc53ca3faa4b604ec0e9252298c496c3448b5ec99bb33fb4f8d6c88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 7AM ET | 79,138,050 | 79,141,650 |
8e9f8281b6fa2fd2e60498c7fc97b88b85ee1d09 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xf73f920b5dbad747d0517723e83970799cffbf45a45fe4235569c5f162253f0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8AM ET | 79,140,150 | 79,143,751 |
0d9de505a86d9ca8b6e086c0743c9e2f03dcb664 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x40835091e68783791ea3958e0b2fc798bdf0df59d44312419e6f04488f7683ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.22072645564069626
3. Question: Bitcoin Up ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9AM ET | 79,141,650 | 79,145,250 |
fa5a715d8c0a0fddef80060e9c545d2b5b991968 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x983cbb27789f47bf1f0fb559cc897d8496b1e3c7cd1f2beadb892b91f221609e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.22072645564069626
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10AM ET | 79,143,751 | 79,147,350 |
212d84ef5ec08ed5fd3a6d38cf9642adb3e0a1cd | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x4881c08e8dbf854059baa64d337d71427b4a6b9c7e6865e0d3b3c3798049bdbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11AM ET | 79,145,550 | 79,149,449 |
32a7c47c3df691fda92258df94eecd5f6f84cc3b | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xf4eb7c00574baa8d0a30544a065f24216ff7ea26ffb1a8ba4f752cdd79e15533 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 12PM ET | 79,147,051 | 79,151,249 |
41880ffa8705d27b6c513b0d33198d7035bb7185 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x8b02458ae19406901e9020ff743a3ad0bc7b29a02ed7113d8898b92e75d785c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.068816 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 1PM ET | 79,148,850 | 79,152,767 |
809dac0a435eeff61990fa918cfc8b1aaecf975a | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x87bce867654b382c3337163e8d1f792d7200e796049107699aa9e1795479bae0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-15-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3PM ET | 79,152,767 | 79,154,107 |
1217b151050deb60fcaf9eec4d4bcaca20a8030c | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x2dc475291d5c02fe9b24526d30fe9a40bfd996adbd60b0c11ef70632ebb2baf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | down | 0.103815 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4PM ET | 79,154,250 | 79,158,112 |
f2b81e737a9562453686d352bd7daab52db5456e | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x79a97567ed1c5baa0dd370e6fcad71dc87fc6f43d97dcf1f37451f2864d4e73d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2623960684851766
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8PM ET | 79,162,012 | 79,165,612 |
d143d30ae86887c49fd46205fd3d37c6d96b2bee | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x01d4aa11d2ec2b6af808a4a4386079b60e85f2143f9110b4eb101e86e465cd64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2623960684851766
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up o... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9PM ET | 79,163,212 | 79,167,412 |
607a36159a126733527d320a8688f5c6a4d18db8 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0x82e8f478b6471bd836db7074c1d50e0678c82f9eb1cdae4986f8119b7e53df06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10PM ET | 79,165,912 | 79,169,212 |
e326f85e85bbc4db2269eb755dd68ab9e4686311 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xb35a204c4f44b19e456d9ee761c0e6d38b90ee9b63cc835908481aad2f1a1c62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11PM ET | 79,167,412 | 79,170,712 |
cadcd841ce2e932b1df734c01e3993e44b1ecca6 | 0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e | 0xa268c18b1a52621ac90dab8c94f25a97bf1316e1784be15f66d2d89c2660615f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | up | 0.099748 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12AM ET | 79,169,512 | 79,170,112 |
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