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train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET
79,174,042
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0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
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train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET
79,175,842
79,179,497
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0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x369fcadc92bcd3d8f09e89c3091c6c6c03ab47e3a2547a00aeed52927d38cd10
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET
79,178,298
79,181,298
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0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xfc80fffc879f012fd70ed7507ea1648f9e6ad789e9a1b798cd5b2805f34e1cab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET
79,179,497
79,182,896
de17b6f7753dca879d8bf3288af9233c7d2b10ed
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x26fea62a4b80dcfc49e8f4119f79e15ad984a9a2e81da81704210f8bc28fbdaa
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET
79,181,598
79,182,900
9c660e5a5e38eb5986d37fb00d82bdf3248bb56d
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xbc237b4c5cafcaff610b5235e77444c3294d6794e94c5171a5a05ab77bd0dcac
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8AM ET
79,183,098
79,186,998
6cb290aa0b9c7fe39f4765232d8f4be46d74dc82
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x3438b1da60b9901a69834ccd87a21e31e7c36f092114cb0495a719ada555a128
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET
79,184,898
79,186,524
ea3492eea44ed2096af358cbfb11b5e2662c9e17
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x263fe20e03532419127a1d3aefddf0409adcee5dc6e24c43c14dffe9f889d10a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10AM ET
79,186,698
79,188,197
55451064321890dfeba52c52174ea76cc02c1222
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1af8d79861c1d8ce19fba102a419460dec9412ee4028b33c54fc4e209192f723
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11AM ET
79,188,797
79,189,997
d49d3ca796e7bd4202edf4ce049294145b9137c4
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x4704093c0cdb1cece1c7ed4a18ab588bf09db27e7c998f4fc8daf276b9e05772
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12PM ET
79,190,597
79,194,197
08d8ae1202115bb5a742fd0d39c1909373eadbab
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xaa16bd8253f3c2a23dc98c395414460ab5a0c35832b5715cc3daf3fa68131f0c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-16-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 1PM ET
79,192,697
79,196,097
344560028ecd299b5632085b2297ae961dad35d1
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x627678aeba9233d299dc62c9fe9693cb9e0e84f32be1e52f16f5ac4a5c82bd55
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 2PM ET
79,194,197
79,197,897
4da7fdb24f183422550ed9b537f03a3220b687df
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x5216410777efe926ce2996f74b73ed25eebb4ee726af155ede4aaf56a9a754c1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3PM ET
79,196,097
79,199,997
d24ec5ff472ed514a7bd503084509fdf60010058
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x96356bdff941cf2af997d7575cee414806522c546d100c0df98f51b9a0997476
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4PM ET
79,197,597
79,201,497
b941832cc5c70ac0d1bb78bf2a390d5c40b51a31
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x8c26345d6cd8d7c15b97a72284a7df115990cb0dd25023a036a66a92b8a12520
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5PM ET
79,199,397
79,200,597
d7bab4f1545f7b8992dbf4dd23122521614de26a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x97fdbdd6347dcf3cae180821865cac664207fe2c4e6a24dd6c357d00a50c1d51
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6PM ET
79,201,197
79,204,797
ae0b4b215d94c8c9508ae410c612c4a1d97b489b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xeb3452f0e0d5480d14bc1a98e02b1269ca3e6ace27ac57ab2c9f9a4d122035da
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7PM ET
79,202,997
79,206,597
921a008cf430aa91c344b7df30496dc1109d067c
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xd3f8b0d3ee08f992f52a54ca8cbb39d7ea7a58e2bb09fc217488b561479d49a3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8PM ET
79,204,797
79,208,397
5c7ae5b9f354ba2716573490bffeb2a30bb9134b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x6ec9be964f03fa1f131695ff1d5b0a4a572502cc7c2967004c449fe8df549997
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9PM ET
79,206,597
79,210,797
b398ff5a7cbe514e163c7fada5f3db1253642983
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x64c8268a5914a1adc670c9e985f44b227b3db338c3f05c723acef1f8ca6c5deb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10PM ET
79,208,397
79,213,497
16591d26ced4dde749059897703cb816118704f5
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x4948b460fe77933a24947b659ab619ad6d17d71bb743e32dd3b16a468c07fb6a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11PM ET
79,210,497
79,213,797
152d7641ecb8dd45fb4d7cb4cbc3e851544a1e28
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xaafb170cdaf6974335c8337a8a35815be238761656fba2ed6b05483f477cda92
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.06881575242659582 3. Question: Bitcoin U...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12AM ET
79,211,997
79,215,897
634d88a726594e34a409851e3be969ca5b3941e6
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xa248d08bae35635881b460c58905881ff31c77ebfbc7da9300c931289a1bcaca
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.06881575242659582 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up ...
up
0.665872
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2AM ET
79,215,597
79,216,798
1612150aa6b7fa68db33b7c9bdfb1f0084f381fa
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x7f4af3d947ceae638655022b0cbfd046766fa28040ce9d3a1a609f7c96506d65
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.10381489113591158 3. Question: Bitcoin U...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3AM ET
79,217,697
79,218,597
ea6684381a2a38ecc69d722e94f6f991087339e0
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0f1874c2723886a9402256baf22ecb36feb63e26e3d203f44d09700931974067
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.10381489113591158 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin U...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 5AM ET
79,221,376
79,224,676
5b0e0bd0aa717191ab19f70ca47926b1732707b7
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x2db5e4db30fbd4dee5da5e27ab5f2de2fcf5b8759887d893b79730ccbc2d44e8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6AM ET
79,222,876
79,224,302
292ef956bbb5d1e0a6dcaae98b86e78c715bfabc
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x8aa2807b3f52230f1e342acf0409de865ed851f8eff601c6ccecee58ef142107
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET
79,224,376
79,225,877
8780e505db4b3297528903dbaaae8f9ef7ba549f
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x90fcc3cdf6dafd11f0f8bfdf11c5236faa56edaadcce85b4dcb31965c4818d8d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 8AM ET
79,226,177
79,230,034
925519bd65192209b6888eac5499a53721573501
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0efb28d0d06ae9749f8ebe0637691303ef72c528e505d86cfd213b4cda9ac018
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.099748225396007 3. Question: Bitcoin U...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 9AM ET
79,228,222
79,231,822
0caae80a285f0f4fdfd23299cf60dbcd04033589
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xff4d20b83e8c57648439c10a1334ed52e49c95a7ab0920a5c835aa1dd5f2e772
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.099748225396007 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10AM ET
79,230,034
79,233,622
4476c9224472288004a5ec7040bc95fcce53627d
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xbfbdd3bcff584ea99b96ef69e43b596d35762ae53db07dd05f37f8e7f64aeffd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET
79,231,822
79,235,722
781635eb5828d25352e7c8ee396f4428da75839e
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xa7843c4f7d9a2ef8afb6108bc9fc88a19cad6198395f1d9d70461dec23916637
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12PM ET
79,233,622
79,237,222
2fba47c91f2d384ab95b9d92cda5aeb832cf2c8b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xd455a372abb6699e160adf87cf68cc4e6ce9c527e1069786dbed12b2a0081173
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 1PM ET
79,235,422
79,238,722
fca84e1a9641d99237cfdfc232cd45d2fef33074
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x03af10fbacc2dde5f458d907b99b4cc7fd5697ea6c3ec5e6c5dfbad0b2111ce3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2PM ET
79,237,222
79,240,822
caf0923d3b63505bf74aa05571b017e05ad56f61
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xa688d9f52374c38174b27890a31fbefb9fa3f3ee6b625829e379df960b876aba
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET
79,239,322
79,240,857
52b1a0ed344c80257b27c5ca0de83ea281b87303
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xcdd28cf46bb8848fa72e3fb9d8cded5b99bb7b342f293642d3bad0f61a8a66b0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
up
0.289943
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 4PM ET
79,240,822
79,242,363
bbe2c25fb21b9575f191734b252c59feb52d3d00
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x840b0d8309866b739f8afddf1d08a28fc14e7c8c8988aeb856120e4ea32ce66f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7PM ET
79,246,222
79,249,822
c7fa7594f2420b6e704a7cee532a2bef3f708b19
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xf5ccf068a4541dac66170212956262749511219ac49d789e1fad9ff77c9245be
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 8PM ET
79,248,022
79,248,922
1ddcd6ca69df3617689ac5ebdebc4d6a98b4808c
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xb4cccccbb1fc1b7e25cdba525a34a8526339be0f1f1043a53354361fc0d09fed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 9PM ET
79,249,822
79,253,722
1574a32de701a556358fa4963dc218005f08d6da
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xf82d2b8ed79e53dbff565bc883d4135477d4a6c6f8cce28069dc747a5e04cfe7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10PM ET
79,251,622
79,255,222
50f494214c860ee31ef4a129c975d5b4c798cad1
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xca2ec2787951bad51970f6b51ccdaaca81d2cec5aa03f51d615736a66d17dd75
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11PM ET
79,253,422
79,257,022
d2aaa988e202ce0b77c74eecf80ac858f0d3ca24
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xfa9c38573de9cf5ff3a02aa6840593cd5ece8e21e0a895aaba1e4d32cdcd84e2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12AM ET
79,255,522
79,258,822
4ccaf854815e1e1223df659a8cfc190dabf89d2a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x16faf9de2f526322ddab62e5fdc6ebf20ae26d7343a6354d9ab8a279e3bce639
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1AM ET
79,257,022
79,260,622
53281f05a0822368f3a3002bcf147657b5c043e6
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x02f734e5b7b250aed25906fadc4d18ad0818126bd0ea8163b2a7fa865339de1a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2AM ET
79,258,822
79,262,422
5081148bd57ff8bb7db69058c43bb08ddcd9ca4b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x6a1dca02e5016aba7a5fca318adc4e85d6706d689e44255ac7edadef2859fbc8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET
79,260,622
79,264,997
22249ec942b063ac5aaf2ccd4bb5926a22214a1d
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0b09d5c1e8f012240fd6d2bbaf23a708f6edee830d7801243bdf71f2a3ac96a0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4AM ET
79,263,022
79,267,350
62aa52131a2b0137e101a304a700ab623fef3f55
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xe2e7ca1ea815074853b07fdc6e16e8e5c7f887842bf24ca8d49b85eb652ef600
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5AM ET
79,264,997
79,270,598
22fb11da399bf5daf43f962666a9f3bc0d0c1d18
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xaa38129438caaf5e8ee477e05a108d1be05352cd92cc2180d9b1066ce6d33792
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8AM ET
79,270,598
79,273,955
8db87b5de0819da13d53ce1cfb93d0a565ad61ff
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x760f08d44f85831467065434e40dbc55c95d77ebb057a082e208288cf2c2f4be
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10AM ET
79,274,555
79,276,655
96c9d24754227a62dceb7616d84b1756ededa005
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x4346210fe50033b2510b74836be4acaa8a17158c29f7058ce83bd8ce8ca6252d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12PM ET
79,276,655
79,280,256
b7cef1ed0739412d4d4a1b3661754a2c218013d9
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x5b3900279301b12b9b1742db203cd417d5b14876b90c5ce129ba25672e9e3fe2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2PM ET
79,280,555
79,284,155
3ca9874ebe0a5c62e7e5914619f8d11d07a48aff
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xcd8ae0947b44838e6030b65f14c4a099fc675354098a598897cce7d2c380aff2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.665871647158111 3. Question: Bitcoin Up ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3PM ET
79,282,356
79,285,955
b53cddc8cffc7b7526d148f5e4db1cafad27b54b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xa4be9729e36aec3f83d01b9801de11e33ba0d8a738404833b2736b9c8d738f2f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.665871647158111 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4PM ET
79,283,855
79,285,355
f68c947b19675e481cdda3ef813330aa9ef8f8ae
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x47941441c3cdaf4f2e75d858d629af724e38bf9b1089a2eb2b333f002886302e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5PM ET
79,285,955
79,287,156
3d8856839075216fa612750c6ccb9dbbd5caa811
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x2e056eab92389c5000507642877ffcd7ae287731028954d1d8ef072e78493b6f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0.883597
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6PM ET
79,287,455
79,287,455
3bd142d97d8d82cf2c595031b0dd8c0d9680b965
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1be61f5e18c07e29269aa285c8aca77b1a01cb43e9799089af0761894dd49634
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7PM ET
79,289,255
79,293,455
5552422969f444dcd0c943ac287b0e0c3ea2302a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1b107c23dcf7fd212d91c4004512c04ecd26a847d7bdf636174eae7f87fe4331
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9PM ET
79,293,155
79,296,755
1f26cabd435156708102e7ef8c7e0a4296b1c577
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xf9cefc9e7d645c5d9dbf3e3bf33ea6e759886ed3f59207b0a588a31d4b036922
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10PM ET
79,294,655
79,299,156
a12888ea9fdd58e9d49f23179c0000bcdd1944f8
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x42dc093dfcdd9ba2962baab1bb5de6c7209b14ed5d3d1f7d19dec12c14cbb489
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12AM ET
79,298,555
79,302,455
e1a74f3b506f026e2e6d811d383c258dfaa80ac1
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xbb6d43cc8de8b9e70053910bcb1828b2cd59ff0977a65f224b11e055e8087048
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1AM ET
79,300,355
79,303,655
0237334688f6104b2c3a4606b218f75c2c2f1e69
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x378e873200822e16c893bba19fd331d726eb97944b1a2d60183c7da6d34acfc7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
up
0.579547
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11PM ET
79,300,955
79,300,955
8a05efae48b7e36ff6220a26ab7d18d45a8466c5
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x98cfa06390f038596167d576035d4637333bf1a292f814268f4a71388aeac1bc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2AM ET
79,302,156
79,305,767
7966a42d9a6bbc8729e304dec2801e248263b8ce
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1021396856abe06b11c047dfd4126d1ba8df407a8ff3d3412fb2d027ba08f25f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3AM ET
79,303,655
79,307,548
43a4330ac776ac3380ce683ab32187d97830f32e
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x2126f84ba8f2f6a0a84dbedc24d7cef86f1a74a3187a13145dc9e6a0d3915fe2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4AM ET
79,305,767
79,306,967
d11f8d947f725f6dd7a8ab99aac1c44c9617948b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1c12c011fd646f29deada488f5bb7372fd2a63f0e2ff8f119f22c0c54d9b077c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2899429840453101 3. Question: Bitcoin Up o...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5AM ET
79,307,548
79,311,148
540ad0980de117e27b2df3280e46795e0b80aadb
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x960dc393c975012c5ed955c62453d6cd909230f845669a50ea1082d8a08cf359
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2899429840453101 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up o...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6AM ET
79,309,047
79,312,647
9306d4b9c21120ae6ccd71d8446784164dcb7b3c
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x58838a198518aa725cb802d17d916490f429a1e420f81e29e793b304c7a3cfd9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7AM ET
79,310,847
79,314,748
cdfc94d50f63865a4097601ab72f931d641a8e50
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x2654373ae5ab86bc59e17c5b0f3324689522b9b119c0738b9a5370b8d6c311fe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8AM ET
79,312,647
79,316,547
81f85609e103ee6aca6a0b168f69bad3164f8600
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x6c29a2488769bf01675a2a5988f45c3943949f814c9403b24e4d11706cc0cac4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9AM ET
79,314,748
79,318,347
7ea83d92d5d8d8d03eb8a005f91d96e3a6d933b5
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xb8d81dc6ee00437936876b4c40a76e4bfa7dce459aa4a868a55dccde37fd8082
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10AM ET
79,316,247
79,320,205
139180bdf7432a3340c09de5ff976fbb7f599093
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x5e4d141ae11cd480dbb8b10f39cace35afd16af4546a3ef1259bda0bbdddeb8f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-19-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11AM ET
79,318,048
79,322,005
18f95927e0c403afc6ee37e5ee27c622b559fe96
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x5ff1b41b07b8ed73c0e61141c00ea2a3b53813318672623cfbdf5f15a3424fc8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12PM ET
79,320,205
79,324,105
67ad412389e81eed666dd96faca33a7a355b9f67
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0651b71cd32772fc552e350598c192c68918ada2b1cec7905a6e84b278f167a1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1PM ET
79,321,705
79,325,305
ff9d990eb66b92e00c2b8088eef2259029c4fd56
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x995b5cc83a3985289ce42edfaefbde7a048f69128e7ceaf10393000845ae8b6e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET
79,323,805
79,327,405
06ad67804ce12ad9890b982f3fbbac27d6fa31ec
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xdc5b6922c1dccb77b3389f57d5592258ddfd2a4f88a353361de77a42b34a5e97
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3PM ET
79,325,605
79,329,205
c3f813118f601b34f52f463c19ad9bb38b837cf8
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xe17040433c16011c66144182f91e2c3e7bf7106338aecd08466cc52f2bbf3036
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4PM ET
79,327,105
79,331,305
3ce18f77391d949e6be5f38f5f1d800e5395207c
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x272e8c51654b52047f054b77c127f277fb41fdea0082e615113900cc4586aab6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5PM ET
79,328,905
79,332,805
cf10095d34f6255cfc7bad64ef01c4d8650feadc
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x7ea34ba4b0b1112c567a780c401bd6b3b007dd1bc5ecf4440f75e93f033ed812
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6PM ET
79,330,705
79,331,905
5a2b93cbf2a1c37d8b6078d80d9ad5ed6bc583b1
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x6bb802ff99793d21358e0bb75e93e6dc532af186039c09e7594b6a51eb855a97
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7PM ET
79,332,805
79,336,105
82d2095b02db991712251215bcf9adfaec5f46b7
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1db69a089bf6cadae40853b7d90d081c76b7b1ec9eff1547843064d94b817ba1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8PM ET
79,334,305
79,335,505
f8195dff5ecf152cd5da528aa3766a86c94e76e5
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xfcb241d450cf6c44138ad029f49df776f67dbca9f9a2e9e19f529cee5b8b4be1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
up
0.129138
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10PM ET
79,338,205
79,339,405
ffa612cf4397d2a195458c9cbbffb87a2c8741d2
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x30dbea8709d21b5e3ff4ded15bd896997ee7fd009ee7c87b271a581086f9ccb7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1AM ET
79,343,305
79,347,205
29c5043c84490b42b546192d017f8ad9aa55a178
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x41de32a5cd264d184cfe81c2a79530fe40845f66343e2d387ac560591a81b6e7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2AM ET
79,345,105
79,346,605
996d3f432f2737fac7fdc4cacd36e63436189337
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x51b2c5cdcb764e497bba630214444fd3efacce353a3102b7d735bac6645300d3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.8835969503863726 3. Question: Bitcoin Up...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3AM ET
79,347,205
79,350,411
81096dfb4bfa3ecca4b144ad6db5b1993385c65d
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1d3f6b78ede38c89d87d41a17462a2bf320e165604f1850a73f5e86939f03a3f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.8835969503863726 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4AM ET
79,348,705
79,352,538
9b7afd9a01f8ecccf00e41915f4b65e16121cf53
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0e03c97cf210812f9fca38e5150b8fc4fbf8df382ff1d10aa3a0cefcd430f351
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5AM ET
79,351,040
79,351,938
691a5469b301d879cddb14d9b6efcbf1d7a2ada1
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xb5d7c2cb6e533dd50854a5827ebe1c4949b59280ae9e3f771b734ca58bce8528
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6AM ET
79,352,538
79,353,737
543eca2c4ac0f682b80e31f1c3b88a673da1c52a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1e9c2f208a5535f743c27b6f99d4cc0af016956707cbfe8d8d40f95f3929aa21
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 7AM ET
79,354,337
79,357,937
d5f21a0cd1d4b6cb83109a82b19646189b9c62c7
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x5601d7163d1160f11677c7a0effed7fb05a3da222b9f0fbdf479cd20521a0365
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8AM ET
79,356,137
79,360,037
bfa2fcd79e6e9c7925560d2b5fab4500a26446f4
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xc5f9e2952ce5817fca1862fe25e278d7b7d1592564dd3328dc9338140768f574
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5795467677002436 3. Question: Bitcoin Up...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9AM ET
79,357,637
79,361,537
fcf26b91004c0b2bcc856d1657b8911e4ea5ff88
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x3cba6771ba7e705c18e83a0c187e2ec67d3d67f7a7e55f23f2d02b43dd27be04
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5795467677002436 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 10AM ET
79,360,037
79,360,637
176074a8bb49e8ea6476110536d65ca638cad843
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xd5e4d6e6723cf8fb09286a833a1e834249e85217132a6082aeec95f997661711
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11AM ET
79,361,537
79,362,437
52b4dffb13f51db3a46274c398d34c9fe02dbe2c
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x3987c37d30565bf7b05d9e570c5a2532c2e8d577b03753da105d486dfd1b1c1d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12PM ET
79,363,337
79,366,937
85e4e5ddaaea8a3a08aeec5d10bb69612e7ac4ec
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x3c1e50c25756c1fdf40cdef3797c405989fcc5adaa383a09924a9f8bc1ddbb4b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1PM ET
79,365,137
79,368,737
d5a1543632804daa50c2ef735f75b40695684ebc
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xfb329b7006de9580301a9f9c05bf42071cc89477e15a3c09e2a76ff6457a25d5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2PM ET
79,366,637
79,370,537
56ce4354810a6b8f995eaf19aa87caa9fa63849d
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x5f7dbb71107ba145f0ecfec925dcc0cd2c889be37805448826b4afac344d17fc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
up
0.088821
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3PM ET
79,368,437
79,372,037
e65bb3087a5ffc9ea49f5084c6426f886ee656cd
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0dee6eeef5595c7290a1d76b44f065a33c113c16c4e9193d8843199eb708db8a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4PM ET
79,370,237
79,374,437
45f2c924ca3d098e3c2b56c18e719660379c46d8
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0d348a6143837c1b6965c86219b299c9f561e72477be608b61b9db1803d8f2ee
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5PM ET
79,372,037
79,372,938
8d1e93f824d04e1b2f900ad8d78656b43990e4f2
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xfcd16f9582ec506dbfa0a64ed1048adb1715a680460ecd920ad1cb271256a718
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6PM ET
79,373,837
79,378,037
dde06eec1c16e6e9e28e55b689ed39697c4e01f5
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1b4700d0bf8dd04482bafe36b99d753e7b82fde8eb37fb0fa80fc9dc42f073ff
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 7PM ET
79,375,637
79,379,838