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0x55be1f65f46642cc38aeecffd428311503f0cd923be66cabd0f818428f2e1ee2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8PM ET
79,378,637
79,378,637
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0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
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train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9PM ET
79,379,237
79,383,137
3e3fc9f4eaf853d3fc8a9f974d65edaec466df17
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
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train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 10PM ET
79,381,037
79,384,637
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0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xd802ce0d6d5ec4c3eac97eab1689a889c016125bef57cbf7547efd8f9d28c762
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11PM ET
79,382,837
79,386,437
a7be90770ae4f7184fbb07bf1f322e2baf117f88
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1590541257a5af15d1ce8f282ac164c835d0c84eb12221ab29dc6e356cb69b90
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12AM ET
79,384,637
79,388,537
91efda21cfe214df48ebbc0d411b8ff7d309def4
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x540f400c165aa8716261b5c7048dfe707ebda21b9247d9a0b52a48ce10d6afb8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1AM ET
79,386,437
79,387,637
d3f78195ea4eaaff8dc716f9b67763f33f94a267
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x53e8999b71539a7fc8b80caca841f571d6551e7e88cfb205c202553006647303
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2AM ET
79,388,237
79,392,137
383b53f98f34393f78ab12ac12c46ccf15d52816
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x38c2e5bc34af6de0b294d046a9a3a97fb77c639f212fcb772883a7512f02e68f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 3AM ET
79,390,037
79,391,537
d67aec41e9453f30e6e31098aaa81da2b4a96829
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xbbc4b403f74d7b780ee9e587530bc598493ae04d7ec5fdd212cf026e19d9f9a2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4AM ET
79,391,837
79,395,737
2362d7409be7c113c8782e55f368b73a48a90a0a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x9c809348cbe48f91276b2213c3a7758773177fbcfd7d9a7504ccfd8d4a89ab92
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.12913779379088916 3. Question: Bitcoin U...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5AM ET
79,393,637
79,397,237
4fb163db478008249f4a0d2e2490fd9e1cad3f69
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x99ccdd72601053fed2dee6fb465bfa145becb91f385fd9a46e2d1692633c8344
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-21-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.12913779379088916 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin U...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 6AM ET
79,395,437
79,399,037
c12a7d006adb91d28371e83fab76cf6e13ef74cd
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xf960c6177b9e1b10fff70e9142a0ef757b03b5d8b6431b8b901ae5cee44e653d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7AM ET
79,397,537
79,401,137
42f341fa8ffaa6ff9660a5373f9a54215077bea0
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xc163360666b73d316b3c913cf915770f534f8ae8b9f50c660adb757e0c012773
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8AM ET
79,399,037
79,402,637
a276518a7f1402ef89fdbfa842c429b995cc8f07
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x453ab99f8d583653b92dc98497ca6aec577954adb0ade60a6335aa3ed343d928
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9AM ET
79,400,837
79,402,337
8200c007ff98bb1c35d2bafe231c3802c34673c4
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x6d7326ecd85e21ebbf51eb92fc1ee6609d6548ce1c1104fef6a99984603d6af6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET
79,403,237
79,406,837
55781b2d319cfbfd8e9cf4511e40e600069b61e1
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x3437815080ddad3472dba39f62e7109b0302af6ad0c599d2a0f686f4f902c55b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET
79,404,437
79,408,337
f9ff90ae0c6071a224a9d9ecb1148cea848fed23
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x78856c172c23aa1436538536c5cd28cc9d76c0f2d8c06f8e38ea257be33dfb69
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12PM ET
79,406,237
79,410,437
6556a76d27ee09cf31a39f6846bac8ec1590fa1b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x4fcec9fb831c3fe1ff5e55f0a3ef89a107a3974689c1c5781e9834bb9216c3a2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1PM ET
79,408,037
79,409,537
e0f0f983a46646b86d38c0b4141a05904429d44a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0cef9945882f67e13b57a9eaa47da86e95b5dcc495ff8db6462f5a4850d4350f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2PM ET
79,409,837
79,411,337
4b3fab590149000e9b4293cede96f2b694fbb6ce
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xb67db5029a51570bcef9e1433b926fcf656389445eb93b22c8821ba44ea1d8e3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4PM ET
79,413,437
79,417,937
00f6f63ce3ec8a2826e677d82cd97a09e9eeebf4
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x8dee82793bac5c069996cda5ef2f77394a8065bcbe16614cb28df0aa96d3d3db
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5PM ET
79,415,537
79,419,137
09a53875465b71c439caf6bf8b6a2242969f94ac
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xdc1a86794775042ac0a2ac086fba83e5588e408f1df63545c838220c3414ad6c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 6PM ET
79,417,037
79,420,637
6a9df333682e060a69ee8744edacb72d191c583b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0b313c3101056c8e38c2df29573491caf5a66f8eb99f1c189a5bed1e14b54910
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7PM ET
79,418,837
79,422,437
745a2e9de99063ce253febf01e687aca76e99dcd
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x11e0b8fda28e71cc6a246faaaee92e84d71fe959914f406596fddc8f5b207f73
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8PM ET
79,420,637
79,424,537
15fea4df176776731c9564f245aa8026248dbc21
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x1c6ea997296298dda3f7fdb9cbe51d203f680ce0c868aec9d47e4b6dd4a7fc3d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.08882119907901968 3. Question: Bitcoin Up ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9PM ET
79,422,737
79,423,937
25d6fe19e792e1b5a8a07df50ac707cf59fc673e
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xf71bd16e4c2f2c454bfbf7ce0ef3acaa1ac8c8b363b9ca0f3c4008e1cd227d64
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.08882119907901968 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10PM ET
79,424,537
79,428,437
ba24b3c063553c4b136b6cdb07b8833928097bec
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xef894e14d0c8da11860f5193766e1bddf8d1e47c1ff646677a04cccc47bf692b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11PM ET
79,426,337
79,430,237
f114bed271e40dc61af461cb19856bb179fb4d8e
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x49cc0315fa8675027571544b45875c82756f23cd0ab2806932d7b7d2b6b22fe4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12AM ET
79,427,837
79,429,337
fe042c208a69aa84e1d631c41d46399b28e78364
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x95d74c97abd7d045c4abceb6b3889838d540dacd5f3367065b6dee368bcc9cce
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1AM ET
79,429,637
79,433,419
5c79c80eb5555f726ad6392ef308b85cdc4a529a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x94703f0097ea58d897df092bff18a93572d1e0fd4c5acba1c197deea975d74c1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET
79,431,437
79,435,219
ec51ca70da449136f0034601eec9b143eb28497f
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x09ba3c2e3e5abe94b4714ddfaef1028bf3c003389fb7afd39f86f1c04c82c7f0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET
79,433,419
79,437,318
07afa07a30aa0a3d9c5dbb59a1e4639305b1e273
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x58fa67d8f3e67c7dceb325d180151f31a1e1ae9badfe39742e01eba904fe596c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4AM ET
79,435,219
79,438,818
3486dcb31e2e9266570d10b4db2e51cbbf0d90f6
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xf3b19678e235c8705f9436be9b55452825c5394b2f04bef0d312e5bb1a6e2cbc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5AM ET
79,437,019
79,440,618
33623474beafd61181478fbadc04b93422f8bde0
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0e3f486246e4d11241ab11db588f26098303a70cd602aaf8def96c5323bffdd7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-22-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6AM ET
79,438,818
79,443,318
ed8f85acc98abf1855be8414c11185b2c9f57e77
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x12bfff3031e9ae3bbc233ebd625b9abbb98181b62a0ef65201583ba6a9c5da73
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7AM ET
79,440,618
79,444,218
097ee7cf2f18dfff59a60fcc47aa7fcb12d4b204
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x3ff9ad8afa62e1d81b9dd99108c6cec67d9c22df38b0f8f87654784c1e83f812
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8AM ET
79,442,418
79,446,018
2757f63eaa481722c0e79f3a3b5cfd534ef199ce
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x4b1d8bb2fc93505ea0be95591838dfac7e7cbc12ebe38e6091731c4e3ddb8bf8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9AM ET
79,444,218
79,447,818
9238aa92de5c641f8bc6ba21c00e9ffba53a1f1b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xcbc75eaf3074c3ffb0209aee5cea534882373e4b257c43a6991ef177b3093265
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11AM ET
79,447,818
79,449,018
3a9d41053cd43389d3cf3f935da4232afdad298e
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x630e044350b9687c4d1d9a489668622721ddc4505d713a22270c476e8398a948
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12PM ET
79,449,918
79,451,094
5abb5e0adb629f2620c3b3bd52b2f283b308db08
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x935a795ff98a9687c52a593c12d6f1f587444b8e2e6a43abe09d3191a5c64e43
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1PM ET
79,451,418
79,455,318
522ed055761c91301d8a375816507a262c6143eb
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xdd3f3e676bfb3c3f391c65e3ca3479bf2f3be6cfa6a9c7c970b262390ac5b980
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2PM ET
79,453,518
79,456,987
7341065c42f887b31bbcbdfb574092729141c88a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x68b5a927a1a4d364cf63ce9008541c76ebea5cf2312f6a50cd090745efe10b7f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 3PM ET
79,455,318
79,459,087
51e7d7cc7aa6ddf48482c9e96b663ee82ed3d3ac
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xdd2b9d843ea0e319b5773fa209f96b33f492227ac8d64c8582d0c9e060101bdf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4PM ET
79,456,987
79,460,587
411382459fdc605ca86366403af11c1d4e24ae82
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x54fe5f6f92d3a8c6ef8e343d1423054812724af031a07ee65fcf1e94d797e1b9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5PM ET
79,458,787
79,462,088
bd663e826a8710e0c733dc04b405bcf565171205
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xbcf35e0f9afbba793ec40ff0f67bb063ebe150fa909351e9c3516a38176eb0e4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6PM ET
79,460,288
79,461,788
f22d0455e9820a1a9ff28cfc8750e0b52ca42699
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x538f308fec5aa5ba97b41ae9dd6a09dae4c43fe3f0a9a68c9bc78ca252d61e1b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7PM ET
79,462,088
79,466,287
dc7df3ce5f4a790bf36344f2f6b213f10f83e4c5
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xfc8b7e1d4c5f02dd1b4d3c319e27634033887418e09cbd49743e1fe86cc116f5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8PM ET
79,463,887
79,465,387
319c67a8749e5ed390771d20df36fba21baaa27c
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xd66e88510dc4b0818a6f563a6d8b6eb4b997852a774f65d7c2be978f8fdc4547
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9PM ET
79,465,687
79,469,588
45e53494fff4dfec1f6a57cc0e041cfee6160ee2
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xdeb66fa0de449cea1a13ed4e5ca6529560f591ec467001ee832328a31fdc85a0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10PM ET
79,467,787
79,471,687
34fa1fde1c7763055126d6a73bd153e59fd81213
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x64eea3aa2c7bdf1399a5a4fa44e75d53dba9fed44ec8e82baffc412853350081
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0.081232
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11PM ET
79,470,188
79,470,788
d819ae080a998b12fdbca7f6230550611f9b6182
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x10c9b4988ed50cb520746dbc49e75f685f1024251a03aa8cf5b009ca79c3e717
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12AM ET
79,471,388
79,475,287
4f2800efc42d20fa60b99e3d9fd8d4e15aa2848f
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xaf56446e676f1ff95fc61c118f59835a6080deb46941a1566823528850a3e1ab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2AM ET
79,474,687
79,478,287
fae7eb8b7cf4c07fe9f1d592923e6904d3fe45ea
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x2c8c59aabd0954ac001bb3bc6c7c3317681cdd03e4a7c8c63ae383950960bd93
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 3AM ET
79,477,087
79,480,395
d0bea9e8569e1f5f4f60aa9f4bc16a2a906adfed
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xcb18acfd79ad9a86c486de708903a6ec89eb9a9e05b1fefe9318d3e903b89993
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4AM ET
79,478,587
79,482,196
21f404723d502f7a371b7d026b5047cb0c636c99
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0fcbe098667559fcd2a7692dd25fbe9a7c55f7feff991dd40a8a1d17eaf86e9f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5AM ET
79,480,395
79,483,695
7ddfd4848e2094b34b2188d97fe0b0f23f416401
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xefdc37a32d50e39baab08aa2c998f2701316fa63f46dce361cdf9c1964ac0774
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 6AM ET
79,482,196
79,483,967
a63d173655a2b334af3413e0647692f5a2ca457d
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xc25f1e6495e456dbef3141c48dd5657b6c0da3040b5264f347a027476225a79c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-23-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 7AM ET
79,483,695
79,487,296
4077a98db900e398e759a77197e72903d409725f
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xfadeefda4423bc12c4be1dbb2f3d87720234a89dd3ffeeb23b6b83f3a46ad8b7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8AM ET
79,485,496
79,486,695
ec0a98e2c945d0afa375eb9aa9343d217670e29b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x93770e35f4c512a9983e38229f4a4c966d6d002b3c38eac6352ca62f639a4c9b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9AM ET
79,487,296
79,490,932
c5b1f8b085ca84492499c8a14274deb8c3a066fb
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x9bb15756ea776626e7424b1497d1f8ab7a47234fe39a073326cce08c6c3ed2ec
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10AM ET
79,489,095
79,493,032
59aa9a71da828079d8702029a5e4640f8a49d92f
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x56c816997a4a1cb3adc3a658d6cf8e2e2ea0ef00f3fb655c3b58ec98ad29e7ae
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11AM ET
79,490,932
79,495,132
5525e4dd20ce401b7ec887f3418be254f3dd0e7a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x9cc97a2ae854796b3bb04417b1497d65a572a8e9cc9083d92211a040b472c1cf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12PM ET
79,492,732
79,493,632
a303864b7dd3c3d611657d4a8e53c2897e10a0d2
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xeb839f1cd422b9bdbe6423f40e28522bea72ece7c0f961e8f462e01731ceae0c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 1PM ET
79,494,533
79,498,132
a74d15aab34199bdc6a0bfdf2eb3aaf0071cd617
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x378a3eb09ed15a80f2a708ea679708a620ad01cc19be91660061004ad31aeaea
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2PM ET
79,496,332
79,499,932
8fc8c5ab5eed48aac8ff88f034bef2f7a1776a5c
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xa64026f6eebac5532cf203c02c5b5f3b11da9fda2114be5294890509e68d95a2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 3PM ET
79,498,432
79,499,332
4a0bed006e34d10965c391f8dce560c0d158b200
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x688d96d384f6b31d50e3bf985c75d383a4082c6a4165da3c9d1da7a8fabbf585
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET
79,500,232
79,501,432
763a9181b46061bdf11e63b43b1bef0712323000
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x7ca19c7ec8cdc87b465b1c88416ce54a3dbed4b0a76ed8ada7f0ad8fe03e60fe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET
79,501,732
79,505,883
162bd185ef51454974bfb6a70d924b0e8660420b
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xfa9e42b62d177ec579e390ea314ff8607278907b8cb8b3672713ac141c9c2284
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 6PM ET
79,503,483
79,504,982
cc9c663c6b86f416c0bf2b0358121d30878d7f8d
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xbff422776abc7324de2b5cee8f4b35f1c74ada58f6e66d588bf4d46e73953f1b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 7PM ET
79,505,283
79,509,183
518fb2e2969008d9b11b23be410b51181179c95f
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x038b05283984eb3b791c2a016b9efacd6e444d52db5ec3d8b67cc3ade8d4b02c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8PM ET
79,507,383
79,508,283
613aaf522c6ba811d68b89c957af690bb32f7916
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xb44d685ece26dd138f6c468d28efb43f26ce8cf0027847389e295a7c20496ff4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9PM ET
79,509,183
79,512,783
67f789cafeb86b634e695842657110f842e4eeac
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x633ea13e77286c94a3f64e1d866a46c8c30ca6e6d18756faa217627e8e18d72d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10PM ET
79,510,983
79,514,883
400e1dfd0fb0c2e8c61c6173ed422e84ccc09d1a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x35b13f6934f1e121a0a5df6d77f95e5815a7c811b7dbe70f4086777c38dae804
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11PM ET
79,512,783
79,516,683
a854578768ce73207fb6ff4545d1b5adc56e211a
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xcd5db6ea6183b338a949fbbeadb72500b748fb47ea3109a432cb37f5cc3d9f8a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 12AM ET
79,514,883
79,515,483
43ece53ae6c56ff5d9b8d4021854664e46c9442f
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x6d5b7e6d566cee55a2765903b304c7882d08abc45d3c3e9599fcbdae6bfdba02
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1AM ET
79,516,383
79,516,983
783538d67adea19c98235ec3139b8e6b70fc95b2
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x463e93fb29b52564df05dca47a58dd1ac6e711e7414db79b9709d10372714998
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 4AM ET
79,521,667
79,522,567
7b68e58c20a023dcba98a4a50c3456d531e2340f
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x56a2a26aeb4bfb47eaa99f6150ddf1c5b0109b44db7273a16f3734da3b809433
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 5AM ET
79,523,767
79,527,067
15758cd006173c2ff0e6dd1d7780115799d91030
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0eb99e63d340d57863d72759bb4e2eda24422261ca1be1f87901350ad29a4fbb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 6AM ET
79,525,267
79,528,567
4afd8b51c031bc81f11bd69c45718899ddc3a37e
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0xd9e7766049f00beadfadeda68f95cab653cfac2379e50eff912864d09a779690
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.08123201019777791 3. Question: Bitco...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 7AM ET
79,527,067
79,530,367
a21a95a4697c8f033b912082faf2c9d86501cfb9
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x19654fd6ae86a7db5c0804181d6cb5d3201c1a4c92b040eeb6007e753bed2f32
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.08123201019777791 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitco...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 8AM ET
79,528,867
79,532,461
f6d9090c9f1c8c684eb1b2a64d2338e3acd745d1
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x0f4459b4d611e214608a10cca4b81938430757e8f088b5f160fc088d46f9befd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9AM ET
79,530,529
79,534,262
580ca3f9d6b69dddbb5487474986b0eac05e25f1
0x1e75baf375ac3a352f7e7f4f18b16fa454bf305e
0x4861851580be269c5f37790743458a6fe4d7fcf21ec090e528a7fd3b47fff54a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 10AM ET
79,533,061
79,535,732
519120efd3d163c621323635ef3fb62d6a5210bb
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0xaf5f56d8c8e3e684b13a26e1c13a94888f8a7b2addcf82204261585847d225d5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
no
1
bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30?
75,852,737
75,852,737
7ff4235bc45796263eb3bcfb07770751ea654f9a
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x30ca14f40b41fc20c5547be06e8493c09e32e9c88ecafd78c799d85b8a705a4f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice...
no
1
lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30?
75,854,306
75,854,306
c2658f910a7d5bdb8bbe1c1457f1faf1f92aa9f5
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x2df29117ae772ffb73c5947dab90f9ed3ffeea19af6e8a54695c200b3b165e9c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? Event: sea-par...
no
1
sea-par-ata-2025-08-30
Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30?
75,858,156
75,858,156
8a411bf0113ef3624572fd6691f22ebd1b81b9cc
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x5bad7cd6ebb56d86f4961f5cf46ea846376ea43164af0540883234ecdf10a443
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
no
1
fl1-nan-aja-2025-08-30
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-08-30?
75,858,156
75,858,156
38b272e3e23eb08f6ecd609379367630f4f98ec0
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x67f41028da3003cd0e3e227b84ec4de0699bf38dbc9075b7069805c709970ef2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
no
1
sea-bol-com-2025-08-30
Will Como win on 2025-08-30?
75,858,156
75,858,156
04cd0f27ee181804b2d20d71ef99705a9a32eb9f
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0xe4b7840f9beb46006c20cba1bf160a567b1fc8fbac289ae84bc12868e7cf03e1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
no
1
epl-lee-new-2025-08-30
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30?
75,858,156
75,858,156
5b1719d539a243778d57415ab2a36ee14e569ae2
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x15f419c545adbc47390c75514bde2a241ab6a9e47881b7ce3d2bc70a8f8d8de2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
yes
1
lal-rea-mal-2025-08-30
Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-30?
75,866,495
75,866,495
7fa9810f3e15a798636a57703570a2760fb128a7
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x425d988ea7563e8485191578305794e1b447d611e79e3850bc87f1614f0ff9bc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
no
1
lal-rea-mal-2025-08-30
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-30?
75,866,495
75,866,495
98663bbb2da8bbd19a3951f1c8bb5e768035fe8e
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x65a80f34bb76ae5fc056f0aea39308a67459d3ec7810fb35acef64b8c82ad889
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
yes
1
f1-dutch-grand-prix-pole-winner
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?
75,866,495
75,866,495
ab9eb8d6fcc7dfe20766265693d757ca418acbaf
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x80d99f10ede87ac15704498c79ce407f4bf1a4a7b38a055cae1063ca32fa6935
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
no
1
sea-nap-cag-2025-08-30
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-30?
75,866,495
75,866,495
1e78b9ab60fc2e5adf7ce0d1b4ed43fd21a99f72
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x9211b726b8a2e62b23ba2bade2eeecfc8e914913b498d78d05a63370785513b9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
yes
1
sea-nap-cag-2025-08-30
Will Cagliari win on 2025-08-30?
75,866,495
75,866,495
8a2bfe78db47d602a420cf92c9849d17b0963d74
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0xd89b745f4cebe8c80cebb895d5116191e34c742175b38ccbfcd0286b493f6a94
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
yes
1
fl1-tou-psg-2025-08-30
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-30?
75,866,495
75,866,495
c710c7e3e01467a1b6bf99c3dacbea158cad4798
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0xe168faadfaab707aa088d9e502d258f6d4627635e73e912afdf50975491f6770
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
yes
1
epl-lee-new-2025-08-30
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-30?
75,866,495
75,866,495
971617f63d521d58ebd7e5c042d6537f7957da9d
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x20fe9ece8cc7516b4a53f8390e72997a3ccd5024c99a240b42d40e8587c8cdbe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
yes
1
f1-dutch-grand-prix-pole-winner
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?
75,866,498
75,866,498
429d4350488d6ced23a1e4a8d909637169c4ea60
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x25dfc326e09a76f9c7ce37f745de71eb1ad7085b53f296732f6233a4b98d0624
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
no
1
f1-dutch-grand-prix-pole-winner
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?
75,866,498
75,866,498
8fe67b09edbe4cd65a0730f539e40942fafb7a21
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x5cd2324cacd8dbc63fbcb116d4ff219f2d06b251b6a92b93f09fedaaa5052683
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
yes
1
f1-dutch-grand-prix-pole-winner
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?
75,866,498
75,866,498
d1cc794d46fa3a484c899767673fa04c67bd8f13
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x70dadf6794eecf06f3d7c3b49f2c9a9efa9e329579777dfb1f14e69c1fcd962b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
no
1
fl1-tou-psg-2025-08-30
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-30?
75,866,498
75,866,498
a55ca9585c9c5177f0b0e9db40b4212018350dcc
0x1e86f548d8bb9a9d106583621e45eafb5b4f93c2
0x8f8541dc03b55e22c255b5a03cf471cdc2a6eb22e0588693fc605f64ddbdedb4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | Event: lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | Event: sea-par-ata-2025-0...
yes
1
bun-aug-bay-2025-08-30
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-08-30?
75,866,498
75,866,498