sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7ea88cf53656f761bac91b23643543980af1d9f1 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x75db10eab67d9092ed3ed6ca651b705a247d9c9264c98283b4028da3f8d85a7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Will Enea Bastianini win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | 74,202,824 | 74,202,824 |
799e80a4f01bee0cc900c4fd033dcdfce6dfb38f | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xeab01b8dc4b46e81a6c3aa0c85fb17f988cc0394eb59620a8acfbbbca70572ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Will Marco Bezzecchi win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | 74,202,824 | 74,202,824 |
2625ed9b07f8401ee07bd73bd7c294767d01a440 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x5b7dcf30a533d79e365d078950c7afcf7e2ab833e70691c3a9ec60a3f2269171 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | 74,509,783 | 74,509,783 |
380bd5c36f6374a6a72ae99ecc83ff850f549c57 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x399890015969b1084f6e4196416b8bc4d472f30cd65bb2e0c1a57d89d3efdddc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 0.999655 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | 74,778,078 | 74,778,078 |
3c5fe81d53cda66c3bfd613c18e6761ef5815db7 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xf571b299a3ca1d73dc5bdddfe934e88d93b824c71d6d54a3721ebaf6b2ab3c3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 75,905,890 | 75,905,890 |
f9e17ce8e65d5c0c18ae747d0b4786b86ed1c119 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x1b0d783db07c67fe09fd8be3a13dc792ead62792e5afea329f7f80d55fbda3a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,180,258 | 76,180,258 |
6995a03a7e1e7890de1844f7c5c116377b135290 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xa91292fec2a01bd433c6e93c6ccf64da1f519bc42204aca330add55181df6cfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? | 76,695,684 | 76,695,684 |
8b94dcea2ef2dab95de20c8ff7c30dbef36ad747 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xc5b18bf44a9c5ea37f8f649251ed97e68259841b2b08743e0f848de7b5b58578 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? | 76,695,684 | 76,695,684 |
7c144b03359603169ca9ae55cb71c9e349bb4b3f | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x5448903973c90c2e80f4b1e4b4150746d040976386b4a719f537a8dd6f64831d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,733,776 | 76,733,776 |
7ea986b46b0269c8037de6fb57ac60052e71d2c0 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x5683a82e53f53fb58c08f8b7bbb11edc4392d12b73eefc37a765918ad9ceb83e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,733,776 | 76,733,776 |
0058368ebf72e7e99c03a1d19a73ed07028bdc89 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x7cd6e58a5b6ddefc8f03b46fcf98deae92447c469a3a6d616d8b54a1ab9f2383 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will McLaren have the second-highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,733,776 | 76,733,776 |
ce2d9920b2db938fafd76ad976763d91a378e914 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xc8ad875ca1a7b346d246b8b225ffc25b3e84077b4609280dea52a9a543392aef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,733,776 | 76,733,776 |
976f5991603a8498324818d7a5c0abd7df57ed3e | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x575941b6ea9b88cd04fcc7125c42e844ecaa68d223064a1b55428689f702dd58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Carlos Sainz finish second at the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,734,717 | 76,734,717 |
59935c75a157754713dc35829cb2f20584170e21 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x7b93416a890c2ae3a6bb5cca0bfde2913401bd6a5d49d503df98542e8783bdac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,734,717 | 76,734,717 |
aca83e7302d6815faac1bc414f3f7a576b7c0bb8 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x37b7cba6b4adf7b98365962ae06d214e67561b9163e3c7754a4b5cc5780d6205 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton w... | yes | 1 | uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25? | 76,912,001 | 76,912,001 |
ddf06c0ee83bd78b364819aaa405385aba5f67da | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xf592fd01211568f21cdb9fb31bb8294de7f2d5d1b15c3233090a38b3eb40c6af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Johann Zarco wi... | no | 1 | uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Celta de Vigo end in a draw? | 76,912,001 | 76,912,001 |
118c8039429120a740c616420d2bb7dab39fddad | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xd6f1157d11136071b20710d14b61c9097e927e424653a41b730e4c2c5ba565e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Johann Zarco win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fabio Di Giannant... | yes | 1 | when-will-israel-first-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? | 77,156,343 | 77,156,343 |
48bac9f7ab00414bcb5086c3004d855c4288dec8 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x85693b2b6c22934b60508d5fbe98d78cb4e16c0404273cafe163ef1e4e4cd93f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Johann Zarco win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fabio Di Giannantonio win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Marc Marquez ... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? | 77,277,666 | 77,277,666 |
a20ee223d019142e8558f47ba8fc307f5fa4066f | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x37b72e0808ae2e9b52e1658470c5c71967be2d3579ee18fbe518b12acbf1ce16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fabio Di Giannantonio win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Franco Morbi... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Liam Lawson finish second at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,897 | 77,303,897 |
3be221d074dc0115bc31ae0ae2e0e66272029491 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x5ab9536970bef4411cc2d6f122d3b31ce76f306cc7f67dca24febebd51768545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Franco Morbidelli win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Marco Bezzecchi ... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Franco Colapinto finish third at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,897 | 77,303,897 |
3632be15c328ecc4213f8b04b51b473c467dd886 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x9bcd5e9c66236f9cf84fd325ce9c34885ea0144ebdf343f9f1fb40da7de93e77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Franco Morbidelli win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marco Bezzecchi win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Maverick Vinal... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Isack Hadjar finish second at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,897 | 77,303,897 |
c11c56952c27dbe65454154ad5b17edd5d5ee2b8 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xb0261330f0fd2dec21bb79728b5d3d2b32bbb54aa91e8edd1ff04a17bf99cdb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marco Bezzecchi win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Maverick Vinales win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jorge Martin wi... | yes | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Lando Norris finish third at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,897 | 77,303,897 |
69060cce59807ac9f662242a8fde40f526f7b103 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xdaf85a69b1fbfa4b0634be99fa4d906ab03556bcc6f8b0f4bdc569b81fa39b5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Maverick Vinales win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jorge Martin win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alex Marquez win t... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Fernando Alonso finish second at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,897 | 77,303,897 |
39fdcf9006a4f5fccc2d5302dc5b2928df18d115 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xf36dddb5a4845f8131ff06b9ed55686ef5c5f6da93d3b328dbc81163cd4aa3c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jorge Martin win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alex Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joan Mir win the 2025 ... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish third at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,897 | 77,303,897 |
9d843426d03217d9233d051283b0d6e016590695 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x769c37e59558fe064f55f62e7a7d68e5857da3f4f9aa804628795a97cd4a35db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alex Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joan Mir win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Johann Zarco win the 2025 ... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Fernando Alonso finish third at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,898 | 77,303,898 |
5dc966533e00afbfd77c40486c00431634e1c6f2 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xa5ce263727d8d5133968ecf1bfa46be02f5eb4dcd39e7283a579b13faf043d3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joan Mir win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Johann Zarco win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fabio Quartararo win the 2... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Oliver Bearman finish third at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,898 | 77,303,898 |
eca0622c5d99d25264093657f9e108bfebf86d2d | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xeb428a1cd7fe5cee81d1a4e180fa2761d5af75802afb28a032e203948b9e9e01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Johann Zarco win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fabio Quartararo win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Francesco Bagnaia ... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Carlos Sainz finish third at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,898 | 77,303,898 |
41f7d7a30bc7f1f5c1ae4039deaa158e9c77f557 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xecea8b4b5d6d513fe1db1a338c4f3c55d9707fdf5ad286858592a7de1c4d8926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fabio Quartararo win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Francesco Bagnaia win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Marc Márquez ... | yes | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Max Verstappen finish second at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,898 | 77,303,898 |
8619d59458a8ddcfcc9500615f3f733bb8c4db13 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0xef9ede28725a8d45aba6fdfddaf27d7c560e0a595ddaa03c1ec87d886f43d86b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Francesco Bagnaia win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marc Márquez win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Enea Bastianini ... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Franco Colapinto finish second at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,898 | 77,303,898 |
165b057dab2b4951a6cc718f92fdf8ad75913317 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x3352392c155db5c33c28d92a55598c3369cbdc1f63c44f161b7621095b3039b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marc Márquez win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Enea Bastianini win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Marco Bezzecchi wi... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Lance Stroll finish second at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,899 | 77,303,899 |
687a402f0b78b52055c8b7269ff858e7d2789ba7 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x7537bfdb178a2eea06c4a99dd2868a37eafd20d5b88b7594bc3d09a53540858b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Enea Bastianini win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marco Bezzecchi win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George Russell w... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Nico Hulkenberg finish third at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,899 | 77,303,899 |
1476e2dbdb0710aa725d8e2bbc9faa80e72ff584 | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x91e3c5917ec6b2315517dcc33954798eb9b1f008375f6f24096aeaed5dc6c0a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marco Bezzecchi win the 2025 MotoGP Czechia? | Event: motogp-czechia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Charles Lecler... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Nico Hulkenberg finish second at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,303,899 | 77,303,899 |
fd58d5aec36bf47064c80545ee913168e71bc59b | 0x1ecad2f212a52f111be4106340eea448634a3a06 | 0x18301f0d08dfa4b905f741cfb46e6f4ba358ef8f6bed390c4df98e16001d3236 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996545074858335
3. Questio... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? | 77,406,291 | 77,406,291 |
05cf245d0cdaf0041282f0efd148a8854ab1e71e | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x0b7d7e34de7f7ebabc78f7d97728239d0287c52bb065e3ea5f67a1788721ce5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?
Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | 74,683,705 | 74,683,705 |
3465c61909d9f8bf0792b70db17a58c248547cb6 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x399890015969b1084f6e4196416b8bc4d472f30cd65bb2e0c1a57d89d3efdddc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence... | yes | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | 74,761,785 | 74,761,785 |
db124b4abf84d6b09c827d2568c1db3f0ea7d51f | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x7a194195cb6a0b3899c81b292a0c2a378d9bdbd29dec7ad6d15d96b5696bcf95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Ques... | yes | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-5th-test-match | Will England vs. India end in a draw? | 74,791,731 | 74,791,731 |
c94ae850b6ce71587c141fc3fd33c68324df35d5 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xc94e1ba0f22578e7c54a85f2c5884d23b2bed990af5cc4243aad27e0ff5f3676 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | 74,800,591 | 74,800,591 |
db3532aab8e30f47c98e5dcab7c646b71afb088d | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x36a2472d0fc63d85acd6b2282f042ebf7dbc7c93d6ad69f9926620d72b9343f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 4? | 74,800,592 | 74,800,592 |
082c6560603ac6b64d242ef15d3ccf8889a5c75f | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x3ad5ad45d7b5e2039c93ab0155293b4d42dfaeacabd97efbcb562f519e18e842 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 4? | 74,800,595 | 74,800,595 |
b70d0f5f59c001bbc0f349d4dbeb1b95b95951e0 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xdec1c7924f2a1b01fc52bf42fd8bfe5169fd57428caeb5bd4c9af33ab3084259 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? | 74,800,597 | 74,800,597 |
d4c2d45cc808ec5673e4e86d722d02dc5ed92be4 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xd603839797523e750bb8a451e4291f4131ebf7e8b08d141e1f2198d1d8dc606e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 4? | 74,800,599 | 74,800,599 |
3f3bab9c8732908011a1abd64b9dfdad5aa3248d | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xb8f1ad1f28984ae57915604d50a4ba0033f3354b4a27a5975d6cae4ec155b35a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on August 4? | 74,800,602 | 74,800,602 |
cffac0f242e04c4c59f4703ea344955d94fa96e9 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x10bde7a33c8f7d44a7791ee00d7d1245abcf290267d2dc098248281776168e37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8? | 74,827,571 | 74,827,571 |
c20c2bc3cbc5f64983bf78332eaa40d3827e248d | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xfd761f0fdd328238f094422bbbcf136e658345f0dc72d7c28339a320911b42d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8? | 74,838,213 | 74,838,213 |
584eff12eb3b57d48a97218c90b8532215643dda | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x2cb56612440ebf1efb71b8c0649e4a275e17171fcf350c1ebf6cf865b85823a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 6? | 74,881,952 | 74,881,952 |
88bddffb256b3d32650c6d66607ce114e7e73f18 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x1eb0fc1b5cdcf72064b4e051f3245af2c6392dfd9eca7846a2e7d0020d92917d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 6? | 74,881,954 | 74,881,954 |
9f813f5ed987f87fa68e800831c21e20706dced1 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xcac8df60d563ca244ca8a6faebeec5005f197cfb94f89ae037c4276f73475a2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | no | 0.254902 | ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 6? | 74,881,956 | 74,881,973 |
ad7e42dcc31fbee387b5ddb1c415ab10de92b0c5 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xcb2485d7b635a4c7bce9e7b7772f3efac41b73d12342056e0ccdb71262aefc7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 6? | 74,881,959 | 74,881,959 |
ece5661bc98958a211168e3824d7a82e68e844b3 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x6056d51a3da3b54f413abfdcb0d5b18ad31f127a95834e05d9a8c67b529bc81c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on August 6? | 74,881,961 | 74,881,961 |
12e57cd9c53b300c5ec2de4a0a7116bc6f513879 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x75135c6585147d042507a1c9fd61d2c7d20fd4938be49e0e32d9c20ac2264b4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on August 6? | 74,881,964 | 74,881,964 |
cd8b0fc69c6e0a7600340442c4997e10400b64f0 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x3e70f09d306ccf422e29a3ad9438d31047cdc0b05e1571d5958de33fd176301f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 6? | 74,881,966 | 74,881,966 |
335fd66e76633f1cfb7d15642d848e1daea64013 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xe0e925945a0410c065ccaa6e9c51ce27df8b8d4c16bb26d2c795cf3223dc9d0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on August 6? | 74,881,968 | 74,881,968 |
fbb7c6adc7c5178ef15107378d63dde20ebb5990 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xa5559e75a99f7642fc36aeaa73668b9428cfc7e0d6a58c9f9bc6700aa3221d71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Solana be less than $170 on August 6? | 74,881,970 | 74,881,970 |
0a5c0cc3b22192768e4d7bb0702ef06b8cf9f38c | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x9e28c942275f156413ad67b91ff7df600cb68002826a4e0bc2555bab207ce326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 6? | 74,881,975 | 74,881,975 |
1712a747d5e9ef1e6e1532dd6cc2d6fd09928368 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x0cc092e50890eb9d56dd16aafea69acf7910b68a8917f6e34a5366e3ce030b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | 74,881,978 | 74,881,978 |
33613bb852776673ceae03b66bed458392634cb1 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x5a4ce099238e47565ce3bedf173d16a72b92ef8c1afd7c7a011c9f911a10bc54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 6? | 74,881,980 | 74,881,980 |
c61ed676c443366347960e1a165c6b8e0ac324bf | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xe1d9237ede08fdf828d1e2c324a5bc7e76ff9b8877cc3009d822477345cbe7b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | 74,898,272 | 74,898,272 |
d3442de3f386505f8acd2c1682753fec345e88fd | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x4d121d77b4ae8aeb79e6fc5cb3db430bff3fff282b8a6b1dc12a91d44f24fbc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? | 74,962,261 | 74,962,261 |
7c95aa5fd10a269171e93d94bf54b4be2569b233 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xe28c57ff05b2026aed199bb70b6704bcdd8f4c744e94a8a68f454d4902290e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 8? | 74,962,263 | 74,962,263 |
ca962308a118cfffc26c9c67ed2f86aed9b7995f | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x84c3a2d8c4e22c369203f7ad7df5901b91fa9c2cf6f3e0c2fb230874287134dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 8? | 74,962,266 | 74,962,266 |
f23471f81b2d011de747160022f41072ef222090 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xec800c832bcd12abfae95bcf68d67ad1d693b0a846061d0362a74710fb5bdfd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | no | 0.07438 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 8? | 74,962,289 | 74,962,291 |
11d232c0dd3312a1d8f10f3c923b88fd8c9c9f09 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xf7bc852a3b1fdade2a2b8d797c48ed8edd76698ade435b7212808a95a26be085 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 8? | 74,962,294 | 74,962,294 |
865f69f5c98d55f0ec3bf86f8267e23c49c7e576 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xedbc5baa64621230ac5cdc411dc2034d9db2394192f7a665344585b956c8e8d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 8? | 74,962,318 | 74,962,318 |
8e86fe8131713cbb65b0d77bebf503cec7001778 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x97adfc1eeb69cc54fe605c91c71c2cb95f54008e1edbff28c2c47b99ba7d4518 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Event: chess-esports-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will En... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 8? | 74,962,320 | 74,962,320 |
08e443e8e6c14842ba747b441bb02b90d024978b | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xe9507317b14deb28ffdd94627e14cf94282e9ee6be2d1581f2f62f2148fbb9d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England vs. India end in a draw? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-5th-test-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on August 8? | 74,962,322 | 74,962,322 |
8e1c6db24a775146685b6ed574203556e936f92b | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xa181d37c7a981cf3cadb63038ffd1a8fb47a8999f94a535013380f38147f9227 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England vs. India end in a draw? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-5th-test-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethe... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on August 8? | 74,962,346 | 74,962,346 |
4f2a82d57e46613b8a26b391b2c6717f82a30e38 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xcb6447291334f3f791fe73172b0168671a74ae2b9e8ccc4434c9d60776d33f4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on August 8? | 74,962,349 | 74,962,349 |
a8007b58df0f9650c0f56b657db98035dc211e1e | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x7f24c7e2fd29f1f5dba691dac58f5c4d448e4a6705a65d69b4fe750e2bb0f20f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 8? | 74,962,379 | 74,962,379 |
a703a95768b72c8426aaf69f0a506e8c0201b33b | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x4c235a6f52d3b81535b48d3e4a5d8e69fc4a450c44a698c7478857107ec479d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the p... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3400 and $3500 on August 8? | 74,962,381 | 74,962,381 |
f51694a1551fcd43ea9effd6986750c3a0c33a81 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xffbe54b928afdb9deb9175a0821b3bb6671310ab1251db55ef3689d519192065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 4? | Event: solana-price-on-august-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 8? | 74,962,384 | 74,962,384 |
fc516fda1036915940dfb678b9a42dde9fb8f7bb | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x5d8122caa103a5f79d207a5401fbd1a70885ce04f4067e2963f29e8e5f22f94b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 4? | Event: solana-price-on-august-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on August 4? | Event: solana-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 8? | 74,962,400 | 74,962,400 |
d9e32951770b6726e8c591a7369ac54f91c6caa6 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xad4c53a914aa52a06164b570354c0def853d1aea46d3ce5d6a291d7de3d6d199 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on August 4? | Event: solana-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 t... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | MLS: Will New England vs. D.C. United end in a draw? | 75,019,144 | 75,019,144 |
7fdbb8a6e1fdc33bd619eeeaf251879bf0f64312 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x425531b6f5fadc683533524ea6658a9af611a976e65b7f7efced1ee1bdcfc76c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereu... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-montreal-vs-atlanta | MLS: Will Atlanta United beat CF Montreal? | 75,019,146 | 75,019,146 |
d4244d6ec01993f49f61ac81463d665a21c4721f | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xc5354a47d7a7a0535322f4efc5283287e116aba049974ffab9f086c9d3e977c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pr... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | MLS: Will New England beat D.C. United? | 75,019,257 | 75,019,257 |
185cf61a06a77a18c335fcba37d2c5aef122cacf | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xfae3292bc6f2a4959648d057d4ef6329a19bd1768bd1a87c64a34fa08b6230df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | MLS: Will D.C. United beat New England? | 75,019,259 | 75,019,259 |
5c8676e782aa7eeb5372a9f2bcc2f4dd09fcb220 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xec4deb941113dc11028a15c429873a808cc84404f678a7497f83e8648c37b914 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2549019607843137
3. Que... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-philadelphia-vs-toronto | MLS: Will Philadelphia beat Toronto? | 75,019,313 | 75,019,313 |
af6e825fcffb5d71e1bd38f1eefe56f5d97c0535 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x6467aa6cb8f949b92eb892377f9128c714df352ff369dc3ee753e3af3343959b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2549019607843137
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by decision? | 75,020,527 | 75,020,527 |
8def5318eea4aa5eb5e2ae3fe7b202aac8e99529 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xe03cc53221ca864b1faa99841edcca5f1258b9a95a9e9b02b81379c10f128138 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the p... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-dallas-vs-portland | MLS: Will Portland beat Dallas? | 75,020,923 | 75,020,923 |
7b4d7ac8d0d06dc6d8d02de09a97f46b461f4294 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x612696aa1f4f87edd714c5e3294a96326176a757d42895b37a3ab71f1da88f88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-austin-vs-houston | MLS: Will Houston Dynamo beat Austin FC? | 75,021,063 | 75,021,063 |
06fd151e500b1aa1c96e35525cc33ad454603815 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x849ca51aa8162698cf0bcf9a0dfad455371f00582997a6c7b926147ae1f349ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 6? | Event: solana-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-chicago-vs-lafc | MLS: Will LAFC beat Chicago? | 75,021,066 | 75,021,066 |
7682c1f80e58937900d03301299f12b3161f4820 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xecb4deb4af29600ea3f32cc219371276a3b3a1ba5c21b7b068b4a1f7f0140160 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 6? | Event: solana-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the p... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-st-louis-vs-nashville | MLS: Will Nashville beat St. Louis? | 75,021,261 | 75,021,261 |
d5e40b22f89390b1281ca12458ea0cbd92cb4a0b | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x395a6cd37ae1328c374095f0e670bada0b6fb09b67258f66a0b2ddd94dc6887e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $170 on August 6? | Event: solana-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of ... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-san-jose-vs-vancouver | MLS: Will Vancouver beat San Jose | 75,024,480 | 75,024,480 |
1f393ee3da98ab6483a6a832a78802e1865056a5 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x02e6675e869cace122a15e5840f1f271fb5ce8d14296edf8c8f8594d5eaee7e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $170 on August 6? | Event: solana-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 6? | Event: solana-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of... | yes | 1 | liv-golf-chicago-winner | Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | 75,048,847 | 75,048,847 |
47d9238225af89112a8a6480eb4e6ca0b20d64c2 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x01347cc520df1a70fd7a5e6caf7fd522e6a5d5aad88720d6c054ae2c9b2885a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 6? | Event: solana-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | yes | 1 | pga-tour-fedex-st-jude-championship-winner | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? | 75,053,251 | 75,053,251 |
af6adc31781b3c07e17dcaf18727b8decdf5fbe9 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xb49386feb88534d954e4482c5c938411a65ea0547bf943a4ef6f33fb887c66f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | pga-tour-fedex-st-jude-championship-winner | Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? | 75,053,844 | 75,053,844 |
787016611844ad2e1d75e60e41a259b389f57354 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x4acfb9cc0387b26853edfad34e760c1250b3fe76b18925d7143821bbfbf0f166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 11? | 75,084,219 | 75,084,219 |
6a39e61066a4e826b94670bcf63ad987ca52f4c1 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x07056fd616e68b00121c8a143d91b51fcb13cfaa360d56c905f1f0183f76c422 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 11? | 75,084,221 | 75,084,221 |
008e01573190baa429669eb3d9a890654879323a | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x11ea4f16f32753485997db27b4d8fbf31b637d00b1ffc5a31c92b50b7aa5eede | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on August 11? | 75,084,224 | 75,084,224 |
73a166bb372b5ea3e585525d7736547a42b099af | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x91f8e94555989bd89d94fc49ed758db12082a8aa4bb047ac588bbaec02f71b61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 11? | 75,084,252 | 75,084,252 |
765006cbbbfc5c3cd6c4720edfc2ce6925023e55 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x1fc82d1ab4f55b33148fff1ee058f2e971b2e71893f6dbed46d225b8188f8fb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0743801652892562
3... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 11? | 75,084,275 | 75,084,275 |
c345d21906c5474613963f42e73d20ac5b1dd0c3 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x3836eb3a678b5314492e89424f6b8e6987b1e01bcba7f9ad9d52d72fab4ee9af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0743801652892562
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 11? | 75,084,282 | 75,084,282 |
75d517c1c438cafbfc461bea06e291f383e6187c | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x9c31408d1d0543f55b8fefa7e2c87d1561246e2ed1413efa31cbe83491874022 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 11? | 75,084,285 | 75,084,285 |
c62fdedd2066edfc4dc1b66abd20625e0ef5dda9 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x8f1b9ca5b3467388cd5e4ecc74e26467ae00281893c91d1ea7c8b4106cdbad80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on August 11? | 75,084,305 | 75,084,305 |
3f1ee7bbb303bef498b77488a53a015eacd7260d | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xafbd236a95daa3a0fd8fbc8a92781726bb3abb4c572c2aa0e3cce9a0bacac1b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on August 8? | Event: solana-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the p... | yes | 1 | july-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July? | 75,118,912 | 75,118,912 |
fea4884ff5854a66ef1f9874f7d218d39e7ead8e | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xc462c9f3092ca958620b2404a1dee04081901d93fd72392b69afaf550e7fdc41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on August 8? | Event: solana-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on August 8? | Event: solana-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pric... | yes | 1 | july-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July? | 75,118,969 | 75,118,969 |
284f22c18cd222293b21636d1388e8929cbe2982 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x8f77c988f0d59c586025889f673665be989e11a428a11f3e53299651c3d2c0bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on August 8? | Event: solana-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on August 8? | Event: solana-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pric... | yes | 1 | july-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July? | 75,118,991 | 75,118,991 |
1d3214c7fbd94e8ab6cb69aee552038c7466f12d | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x78a786481cd44a7d153f762d071eba841d199097f2ec0771ba5032d3935448f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on August 8? | Event: solana-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | july-inflation-annual-462 | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July? | 75,118,993 | 75,118,993 |
c606482d4c3b02414c2c7992c6a78d7d0fdfa65b | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xd93e6262870a072863bd0ca93f45aee8827e7efcae41f8b5d110316f7f73404b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3400 and $3500 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | pafos-vs-dynamo-kyiv | Will Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-08-12? | 75,129,906 | 75,129,906 |
e5fbd020564090a9630795726afbc5db4e631e54 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x503c37470f69273bcaa8c52bc932812e0d0dcd271191fc4badadb4596566f66f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3400 and $3500 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | club-brugge-vs-rb-salzburg | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-08-12? | 75,130,583 | 75,130,583 |
141bc2a140b4100a14ce38bdf21cbc3422a6f9d8 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x3ed8956843603efc05b7f2a0fb661cfc4725ca2c6dbc47193c0934544247027e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 8? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 8? | Event: solana-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-13 | Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 13? | 75,165,645 | 75,165,645 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.