sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
508229358658041fda790a6deeeecd01359e6719 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x01ef26bf9a5179ae2528a41ade585df98b12ceda486a6d7ef0a86697d3082a81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | czech-republic-parliamentary-election-winner | Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | 77,298,651 | 77,298,651 |
ff61f4018f448759da50a66f449628afba920ecd | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xaee675c6cfbd16d5aba3f75a681dfb799365eb6fada3b234227f6ad5af1ad305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-sales-121 | Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000? | 77,527,735 | 77,527,735 |
928b36f70aeaf58bac094ebb99bc6f4b743094fe | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xae085b766d2dd95ed43b5f509ce51ae4eb66534ddb32c8bdbea1d5f474eba70f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will HEROIC win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,900 on October 16? | 77,770,583 | 77,770,583 |
e83a48d0c1915f3610fc7401aa7978b3391cf4c1 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xca983fda2cb7d2c4b9292546f135ac6ec32ca1ac91552857125aa717a2e7b131 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will HEROIC win The International 2025 Tournament? | Event: dota-2-the-international-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $250 on September 13? | Event: solana-price-on-september-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Adolescen... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October 16? | 77,770,605 | 77,770,605 |
b9e50f44e8c7a525f6d5e36ad84692083989d956 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x61fb5087f246e2a12112449480330b6aa11065e68cc4d006c173ad4936a9184a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $250 on September 13? | Event: solana-price-on-september-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Adolescence win the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series? | Event: emmys-limited-or-anthology-series | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112,000 on October 16? | 77,770,613 | 77,770,613 |
a65433ca7b3d7cb4e8cff2c4e91bfbdf1833e86a | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x8f63ba8f83d778f16c7041bea4a668adbbba17201d6902edf743452307127d47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Adolescence win the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series? | Event: emmys-limited-or-anthology-series | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $15m? | Event: the-long-walk-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | the-life-of-a-showgirl-second-week-album-sales | Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 450k and 500k | 77,827,529 | 77,827,529 |
10a0503244d2559de9210ea1fcc7108e01ca4877 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x9e8b37359155ce4d314de89e1de4f26d11947fe4487a6909e9f79fd163aced62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $15m? | Event: the-long-walk-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $260 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | the-life-of-a-showgirl-second-week-album-sales | Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be under 300k? | 77,827,537 | 77,827,537 |
62192971a7e2e242a1c4490d69039b002af10634 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x3f7630c68063db84df5871acdf4fef1566fd9d39afb1097f3d71c82f93984632 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be greater than $260 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 21? | 78,000,996 | 78,000,996 |
b0457f8833695080ee167fb8c0c03e7cf746607b | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x19466e5aad04412e7fb1e0c74b7e0bb81df31f2adca6f28d6ce73c906643809c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 20? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-20 | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 1 | giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Knicks? | 78,051,365 | 78,051,365 |
856d1be86ade66f2648294f5f178cc44dd5ef07d | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xd199a44dccea654029bd86ef7ca473da9e1c7bb0d798681a7ec81597f6a1df31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 20? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-20 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | irish-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%? | 78,194,155 | 78,194,155 |
d56785906199e9f22711df8378205d22ddc87172 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x272337bd05190b2ce1d36083ef1f278d3fabec5fe7b5c7c14b2783b77a2f8358 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | irish-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Heather Humphreys win by 15–20%? | 78,194,185 | 78,194,185 |
e825555b2277e3ef495e663b7a4764f7ae71e047 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x234c745474a30bee05c6809d8703a97f546e03b458de6721d9c88d3f5db0d529 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | Event: f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's animal charity video get between 18–21 million views on day 1? | 78,208,495 | 78,208,495 |
d3c325fe22c2fada84bc0b23cca8e4026b9e9b41 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x8f02403be7cb23d83c4ca2a1a5ba134141343406fa3bffcd6b1fe825e46323bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? | Event: a-big-bold-beautiful-journey-opening-w... | no | 1 | regretting-you-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Regretting You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | 78,252,998 | 78,252,998 |
4497efb5d138c4361a480d9c19480d7eb74782fe | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x959bd65f16ddee92fe9082132c3d91e5204172066e274bb99b6b763c7a0704de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? | Event: a-big-bold-beautiful-journey-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on September 22? | Event: bitcoin-pri... | no | 1 | how-many-dissent-at-the-next-fed-meeting-337 | Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision? | 78,338,369 | 78,338,369 |
ed6e0789587f962dc0b6a232c6212a9de754a113 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xaf4be0ad6a4cf20f67e3aecd63cc921c6d8c9005b1eae5548ec3ede6a8973cf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on September 22? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-23 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | cdr-yun-ray-2025-10-29 | Will CD Yuncos win on 2025-10-29? | 78,358,943 | 78,358,943 |
f6611bfec6cfc770e583e4eca695d2a014feab34 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xcd5a56cb0940dae49bf0f34e8c66aad1d63d49a47e11ea9e65db09b58920504a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 24? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-24 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-october-2025 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting? | 78,371,752 | 78,371,752 |
c88022b1b39f539787669abebbf0cbd86ff9e98f | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x413583d98f7f58d9567ac5c7563dde70adccf24891a56667668151eccc1f182c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 24? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 24? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-24 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on November 1? | 78,461,534 | 78,461,534 |
c4adf1babad5d5b3cf716b0b9dcbad463aedad25 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xa89a2fc48810aef79fc922eec78b17eef435587564a979ca0ef6ae654cd60dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 24? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dalitso Kabame win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | Event: malawi-presidential-election-981 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on November 2? | 78,521,703 | 78,521,703 |
c617c2331d93be62e506661c213f66d863f4ddef | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x07a043d28a85eed71a04c19b7de180ed609afe91fb671c9ab435fb5d3e497d54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dalitso Kabame win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | Event: malawi-presidential-election-981 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108,000 on September 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 3? | 78,547,756 | 78,547,756 |
7387fe866a8928d2594adcf79fc8bd078d566019 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x83e670fd628dc76016696a01fd235ccca81b5796d0fb073a8d2672a56504419e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108,000 on September 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | number-of-cuomo-x-mamdani-debates-before-election | Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate three times before election? | 78,573,416 | 78,573,416 |
d34d567ac966571e5cf3c84b48f437a68967ac96 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xa970d28871c3da73050bf9361ba052b06cf420d5c64e9c7e918c4344c0cf43f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26? | Event: bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-4 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on November 4? | 78,597,156 | 78,597,156 |
2bbec0eaf1b94c6b4f818a9facf993b573aa34c6 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x57f908ebcb5988fbdd6dba8c672e53b98f54364018c47b3479db6af8f60c7ce0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26? | Event: bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | minneapolis-mayoral-election-665 | Will DeWayne Davis win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? | 78,639,124 | 78,639,124 |
44355f6947aac6079fe363d2c41ebd9f835fab24 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x03bfc56a309969c605bfacc5ee27105779b02b4054258c7aaab93677f400a199 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $190 on September 26? | Event: solana-price-on-september-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bank-of-england-decision-in-november | Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2025 meeting? | 78,677,100 | 78,677,100 |
bd6d407c13dd321aba0a2027c923fa553edd3e72 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x4e4aae0f5363d43d1c7e7741b038750faf91a9f4516b5709e5de0afaaa20d09d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $190 on September 26? | Event: solana-price-on-september-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,000 on September 26? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-6 | Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 6? | 78,678,210 | 78,678,210 |
42763b4870c69c2117758d7585a0801112db9125 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xb1f270a41ce97e654964db17d444f862900b60e3c9eace8b85d16dbaf62ede47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,000 on September 26? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-7 | Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? | 78,732,364 | 78,732,364 |
5c780744aaa72a8c907f3f3c1ba4f90dcb5bd03e | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xb473af0d2e2f35e40062992713b5ca7d6c6bca18056d48a9399b6cd1d1553f69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Our Party win th... | no | 1 | 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-7 | Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? | 78,732,372 | 78,732,372 |
2411344d2c41727c3c4a56242dd44b817309bb07 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x7281ba38aa8bc6c3acd7b0564281206930be85fdb14737b7232ac1de8264de75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Our Party win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Event: moldova-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of ... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-7 | Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? | 78,732,380 | 78,732,380 |
51edd7df07fb7e5897a0b22936d415280def516a | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x9a3fccf3300a8c7a8d30d40f343742ef9f2a8a1a5066c00492af3e5c1f9ee68a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Our Party win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Event: moldova-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-1 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will turnout be less than 66% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025? | 78,732,388 | 78,732,388 |
db199a0c8e31c2a1e8927a3dbabe18a6bda57171 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x79aa5cacbccb613e2a320bf941d7d07233f40297ba1f0b6f4fdb941b3cc52336 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 1? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 8? | 78,778,369 | 78,778,369 |
250459d99184aedb8594c69f8f61dd8cdc614819 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x240a60702586bd89eb085d21d961fa84f309ea7a43d37c020c8192175978f5ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Event: czech-republic-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 9? | 78,797,173 | 78,797,173 |
5ced16a8b61bfe1d60bfb410a5091dd8ab99f619 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xb3a8f291d30dd089bf4d5f69cdafe467acdd880bf31fe6e709e9f027599a3298 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Event: czech-republic-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000? | Event: the-life-of-a-showgirl-first... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on November 9? | 78,840,997 | 78,840,997 |
63e28675722da025d3f261a34605554d378ac808 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x66fdc627e0a62730b51b45c6ecba1478a00e3568ad12ffc22f24ed64fa049bef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000? | Event: the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-sales-121 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,900 on October 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-16 | Cho... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on November 10? | 78,856,578 | 78,856,578 |
d096c2c18cdbe61c089e6648a3b7f0455b3166da | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x9f7f4ff81bec536273a0093ae263ae9d76c4a6b8a7890f72935d8a8b18d7c3aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,900 on October 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | 78,908,301 | 78,908,301 |
9714f6a659556a6bc002a61fa060855d825b921b | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xae87f4516fcbc52353b0eb75836ef1bfc89086cae7c05dbd18d5a43f964845ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112,000 on October 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 12? | 78,953,826 | 78,953,826 |
419e753e6689cb18aa07770e5236b60a68723f82 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x3f2602a2eec4d5e2bbc3a5f2f615a224f3dc1eb364b8156158cca6d6bddfa05f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112,000 on October 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 450k and 500k | Event: the-life-of-a-showgirl-second-week-album-sales | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | october-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in October 2025 (LS)? | 79,176,562 | 79,176,562 |
256403d25b7aa57113681ec8f4b1ebbc5d71888f | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xc8ab107ae4bb695cff076b984dcd6e9d3f6fb1863e2e64ed4a2174ab9a4b0abc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 450k and 500k | Event: the-life-of-a-showgirl-second-week-album-sales | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be under 300k? | Event: the-life-of-a-showgirl-second-week-a... | no | 1 | 2025-october-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record | Will October 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record? | 79,176,576 | 79,176,576 |
7195c03ba2b319c183e80464e5946ddf3fbfb4d7 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x5fbaf1198b84b7df5da9dea2a00f252d1bdde854b99718805ff9946b043f8366 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be under 300k? | Event: the-life-of-a-showgirl-second-week-album-sales | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-21 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | october-2025-temperature-increase-c-577 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in October 2025? | 79,176,583 | 79,176,583 |
b1c03120e491ad745c33f70b873b46b011b535cb | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x13966ecb563e89686e10fb48b12526ddf663632bbeff1ec3fc70549e6d37a790 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Knicks? | Event: giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 18? | 79,187,515 | 79,187,515 |
255550fe30a0de7edd16ac5b379947e0267e0fb2 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xfed976a8465df16ff0aeb9dbf2638eaee9de4f082b2b861cbb023814eaf138fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Knicks? | Event: giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%? | Event: irish-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Heather Humphr... | yes | 1 | uef-bel-lie-2025-11-18 | Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? | 79,209,209 | 79,209,209 |
e5e15b51fad07760c9697ffac3fde1cc3a55bca5 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x3659d4cfaa51a72158b8ba7a998982ec1b7dc1eb6c47e77a4eeba5f338bf931f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%? | Event: irish-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Heather Humphreys win by 15–20%? | Event: irish-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's anima... | no | 1 | uef-bel-lie-2025-11-18 | Will Belgium vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? | 79,209,216 | 79,209,216 |
2885094a496fb80d76f707f315e75d0f09450e02 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x77a475ba632ec177d4caeaa8d21fac4e55b6816f7b8bf258a640d9774a894a80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Heather Humphreys win by 15–20%? | Event: irish-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's animal charity video get between 18–21 million views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 19? | 79,222,615 | 79,222,615 |
585db0ab0ef2b124a4f44006d39384d2e33c1026 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x2fad253f1e9b0b7d4b64740cbab640a46ee0fe8a131fef2cf0736e274cbbc9ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight?
Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | 79,017,216 | 79,017,216 |
9dd22823e9658bbb0a93b8b461c2e1609d432859 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x2fd0c0a6ab43aea7cb0b433c9555d5515d8c5ecfb825a11c3b47ef91b92694e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-... | no | 0.000066 | will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-2027 | Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | 79,017,217 | 79,017,217 |
fde2f85dc40b0ba256d873b909a1f92df6dd5f21 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x846cccde5f26e055308ccfa41709e42ce79f5b352a3a60ea2a80f5f01280e163 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Will Trump say “G20” this week? (November 10 - 16) | 79,017,217 | 79,038,977 |
b6da4bb45773075fb7228ddb589047283e7e9e7c | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0xe4ed0a273b8c354452410e7b50fe9e08f7aa6d23619756ade7f076baf552dc9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0.000899 | 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-14 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | 79,017,219 | 79,017,219 |
eabbc367e47b2131d90bfa5d3d4597e26660ef86 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0xfca5de74c560e47da28e57bad7b5d72b5a969e95337e9f4adaef8e60a46ef333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | over | 0.297209 | nfl-was-mia-2025-11-16 | Dolphins Team Total: O/U 23.5 | 79,017,219 | 79,017,219 |
d8b3a54594ae4411494355bb13ac15e15193df3b | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x6659399bafe039dbca929b92e7cafd06046fe202f2041dc02488349db80d96a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | down | 0 | aapl-up-or-down-on-november-17-2025 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 17? | 79,049,988 | 79,055,314 |
930e3245bdeb54dd4c2858ee742af89fbae01764 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x766e0dae76c4c67969a1634fb9deefcaab494577d821f911cffef00870ac47c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 1 | major-us-bank-bailout-before-2027 | Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? | 79,055,314 | 79,055,314 |
ce16c5da98c7b65fa7364014713d558e462a7642 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x1311c8dbbc5809f82dc46af627c40692b27b1f608a26f35e6d385861b884497b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | yes | 0.00065 | what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event-354 | Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
da322964b03230b77de5d15ca15c653919c4af29 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x5c85fa5b98acd921613f262b0c168c0c38fdf3740d71a105c7178c5522c2eb36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0.002805 | ere-az-exc-2025-12-14 | Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-12-14? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
120a1063aca6bb68f90b5b92b096ffde8fd86111 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x76bfd5baa39c8614f07acfaa8755d5646c6fe9e25bda47f83df077a0f767ce82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-in-november | Will Trump say "Candy from a baby" in November? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
82091a027606e098c0c83745731dee3a10584aed | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x8598be66243f179531744b403d1dc07f7646f74ecc85ac352128ccb2b2be232e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | yes | 0.000969 | any-dcm-acquired-in-2025 | Any DCM acquired in 2025? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
2473a2e4aa17ef0d464a0f878806f362d896cb63 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x972827b5a8aa3dc290e131fb8510ecd0ec26496c39347276515190e8a65f8d43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0.000556 | harmonix-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
23b5e1eea38edb6fa1243eab692fef668b2f8093 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0xcaa28c9165619af556375a9b9a8c6387c05595e5d1bdf50ae6649d88ec7073f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0 | paul-vs-joshua-of-rounds | Will the fight end in Round 1? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
dea4d722f3c0cabb5d0a8cb789faa88e165ccd36 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x46cd3fec7f0d679b777af96953af00d933befcedd1103cc6dff9209a43166a97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | suns | 0.005781 | nba-phx-okc-2025-11-28 | Suns vs. Thunder | 79,406,592 | 79,406,592 |
d3eb228c9223661def8e5ad907de829744640f78 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0xf0aa26f04c3531f407c1e2bf6790a9e7d5e63885d14f0c262b5dd7556d9baeac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0 | how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026 | Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? | 79,431,363 | 79,431,363 |
deb50c5e3fdc630860223667a3b42a9c704c291c | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x1e4108df7616c998a17721c3331e6a58faa68814cab6a9a42026e2f76d913775 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0.235294 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27? | 79,431,365 | 79,431,365 |
be6658adb4045c2a1613f7152a3fe2c60bfd47b0 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0xcaf7d1bdc9973a33a9b100ef99c2dd3d76aaa329c001ad5dddc3e5a64ec55561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | yes | 0.003117 | israel-strike-on-the-west-bank-by-december-31 | Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31? | 79,511,310 | 79,511,310 |
7d7b45630d6cbcd07c55fd08643e744faaa84a03 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x2073b88319d37d5499b7fe72262ae0b361a1f27865655a30e374f5805ba570f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0.290126 | what-price-will-ethena-hit-before-2027 | Will Ethena reach $1.20 by December 31, 2026? | 79,535,165 | 79,535,165 |
a925e2b18a50396f457d1d2bbaadc0635d32ffa2 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0xf19f260a82471a34a7ef2c829d90f57c28cbf88f0b28c743dff0586f68479102 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0.000238 | houthi-strike-on-israel-by-december-31 | Houthi strike on Israel by December 31? | 79,619,382 | 79,619,382 |
dfd136f342074c1f5cf42fed3c43ffe0226c0f42 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x4c3dcf02d9c59d91b45c6d1d2005b5727587aa8071c02271f89fef4b3bfb38ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | yes | 0.149102 | min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers? | 79,619,382 | 79,662,772 |
bbd16d6ef8ba7bd048f041910dc3457e3ae9172e | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0xb3aef9ca78c0b9f9965e7149d22f2725b45e597faa16f2893809ba15e073e778 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | down | 0 | frontline-fro-up-or-down-after-earnings | Frontline (FRO) Up or Down After Earnings? | 79,619,382 | 79,814,429 |
74484e06eedbf4a550ffc919a532f0c1a22aecb4 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x0de3a60b294307931108e7aad59660e65e91c1ec57f2388278fd05a37f2bb333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0 | turnout-in-2025-honduran-general-election | Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 65% and 70%? | 79,739,323 | 79,739,323 |
06102869b1d701cd36b9d3d56abe950552affcd4 | 0x1f4dc4a5082fdbc571549042702f9aa1e9f2bd49 | 0x233dd7c95c99738901453ce0625808e7994e5d6fb2de24eb580b71d543ce4b1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Longest Shutdown" during Signing tonight? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Event: will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-20... | no | 0 | what-will-bryan-johnson-say-while-tripping-balls | Will Bryan Johnson say "Erection" while tripping balls? | 79,739,323 | 79,739,323 |
7b77c46d2c7f1e02c9ce882f8335af396eb74668 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x39cb917bd8d757008b9ab7b70817775c4ad221ea0e5f28871bbfb8e19a723b01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5?
Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ...... | no | 0.333333 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | 78,626,183 | 79,654,680 |
33fe91a8d2085b52247eaf36db62bfbdffc8bbfe | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x424ad05605dbefc23d117cabd21e0435942f7cc3c5317551f0452d8b97b69d75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
Target market:
Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call?
Event: earnin... | no | 0 | earnings-mentions-celsius-2025-11-05 | Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | 78,661,364 | 78,661,364 |
fae48d24f0fcc93da84a638b18c85bf933f99256 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x9932075b7e1a0decb386abc1cd096e9174cd06c2608cc2de2c9115532d378f37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 0 | earnings-mentions-celsius-2025-11-05 | Will Celsius say "Tariff" during earnings call? | 78,664,329 | 78,664,329 |
a76b6116aebdd9be066e19a0a8ec2f8375e02ddc | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x53da87ecb79fccc6596999fa3c306cb86e0739c8179f09976b1ecdd48ffbd6b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-hungary-pm-events-on-november-7 | Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during Hungary PM events on November 7? | 78,678,577 | 79,654,679 |
bd0dd2ef894f2e8a67ff7dfc2b2947cd8d1e1f27 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xa52d97334cb189b3517bf4e2d34bcbe66f52617f601f15280c6963d4d337542e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | mouz | 0 | cs2-vit-mouz-2025-11-08 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) | 78,745,281 | 78,749,713 |
67a0a3f5fe6506dcd6be4ed7ba790b152f288dd0 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xad5c73f6267445bd9c0eba9e52914ff10b776fa93c22511d38200dea7bb6c962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | furia | 0 | cs2-fal2-furia-2025-11-08 | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner | 78,749,901 | 78,782,459 |
0d263f1de7825851ed6925002fb6892ec9ebba14 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xb0642a3b9a098ab8ace8070399075dc4e4b1ad1c3376224b4f818fc25a375c0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 1 | league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Will Bdd (Gwak Bo-seong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | 78,831,670 | 78,831,670 |
7e49b9ca73c1f800bc33396fc4a11189ab0ffc9e | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x5a209242a7a39beb5ed06e6fb85a40e6b2b1a91c89ada9d38ef1b4834f0f6bc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | furia | 0 | cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-12 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | 78,917,241 | 78,925,606 |
21f6f47a0835187988d05ddc35ca680f35cba794 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xc7ce31e75f5de1d32611a5f68f996f139288be40d2d79261aaf94f98753730c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | tyloo | 0 | cs2-vit-tyloo-2025-11-12 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO (BO3) | 78,922,703 | 78,922,703 |
bba9db79e0569c158cbdecb45daf9d08018fb236 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xfded3c7c6665359b39727e62f7832d4d1a84c1e77fac382f89be9e771f826846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | spirit | 0 | cs2-mglz-ts7-2025-11-13 | Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | 78,950,531 | 78,957,249 |
cccc6c3d3481802b2e9de39409d95057db789a61 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xe900fe1119a6c2f29086d52a802acf08ba2207692f3c8964933c1237e551af31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 0 | earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call? | 78,951,823 | 78,990,727 |
9f0e11755621893151bb37de6781473ec0f89572 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x92b05539a9d198afada5c423fdbfa389adeba02f9b3984f47e69686d83b72647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 0 | earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call? | 78,965,820 | 78,965,820 |
d2cbe17ecd0d0e8c0880a86b062dfb69f11ed079 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x39de236af227996487240cb6697db1b01366e8beded84e1fd44123a5f8ddc66e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 0 | earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call? | 78,965,939 | 79,654,683 |
12f3ba8ac5454b0d5fc60bb8ca35ae8493fcb7f3 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x87eef00dcf570d722ec98e2090bd961acc18d660bdb4d8c7ac955ffd4c863c51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 0 | earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call? | 78,966,104 | 78,966,104 |
8481b9e0a42b5987d44533cc7a8c32b116bce5fe | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xc36836ab9c053efffb3f7d761e5760998953455dd15910c1274943f0b204ab3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call? | 78,990,730 | 78,990,730 |
a6c7c0d3505b960ef6fd0f7b0add6bca151faec5 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x273132da32a509c459409384c71ddd9aca760b3fddfae62e65f80d51237622ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | pain | 0 | cs2-pssnua-pain-2025-11-14 | Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs paiN (BO3) | 79,003,198 | 79,015,227 |
2770895b6399b7ca2396dd31153e26b88f771d54 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xbc1e90d261a0460b27120b43644e1b815d0eb25c75e4f01c28db51411c841b1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | furia | 0 | cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 2 Winner | 79,047,622 | 79,067,056 |
0614885db9acd0a16016916732fd376187a3cb6a | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x52e8dfa4cf4675f2cd8c3486343242b9c475991abe5d31b494d509ca10383328 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | uef-mon-hrv-2025-11-17 | Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? | 79,169,381 | 79,169,381 |
12c3eb094ad7d2836938a945d837de6420d8e30a | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x8e02e71440f009e122cec76592300a1e41f44c1fa5f63a10ac2de919bebb8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | 79,169,381 | 79,169,381 |
7ef79273d5b0b481a671a62a88c3e1f790ddb1ac | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x304d0f86c4a1e68bf0ce78e71b96a848fe809d5d23bd5075a5eaf655f5a06cd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 1 | fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Will Ghana win on 2025-11-18? | 79,195,607 | 79,195,607 |
0231dde9eca6a932a9a13489b6a301633531ae63 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x8749e1752abfa8b2fb45be57183b6efc55d90698458972bf39be3fc5eccec857 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | 79,195,607 | 79,195,607 |
99da2dd529001a9197dc8b38b7c126f5e31cada0 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xbfe0d463593afb0feb746fd93a3b96b2f5b24fe5a3dffa564d46aa6cb2560c07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 1 | fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Will Korea Republic vs. Ghana end in a draw? | 79,195,607 | 79,195,607 |
7d62ebaf6252c6cd927e6ce3540a76f686c56bc6 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x49b43c4b8cbd1b8dafa720483decc97c963fab465e0db99f3c3147b973ee0949 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 1 | fif-bur-ben-2025-11-18 | Will Burkina Faso vs. Benin end in a draw? | 79,198,415 | 79,198,415 |
a25d8d7b29ddfc9d78e476e84331338d5fbc2f96 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xc3fb9582db6ace161e76e6a3c333f4d97c5e161e5aec3cc02cb63b09e70d0366 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | fif-bur-ben-2025-11-18 | Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-11-18? | 79,198,415 | 79,198,415 |
62f483848c19ced853f72ca504569f8234fb7c59 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xf0cd6e35fadda562de1b655ab85c11f972662dcd1c76472c8adeeddd3fb3e837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 1 | fif-les-mal1-2025-11-18 | Will Lesotho vs. Malawi end in a draw? | 79,198,415 | 79,198,415 |
139cd086bf4acbbde264ddec5cf428b6124eb93c | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xf6a660b4aa1e2bcdd81979820ae93c28750a5044b7f0cf4f8ccdeccd7b27898f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 0.4 | fif-bur-ben-2025-11-18 | Will Benin win on 2025-11-18? | 79,198,415 | 79,654,682 |
e295c13179a71748e008961cbdc7c14bb26ccc19 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x07cc9dcaf33c29e1ac2a76d5a6c30e2367b1923b88fa6a4ad5b8931d28a6132c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | uef-aut-bih-2025-11-18 | Will Austria vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | 79,204,789 | 79,204,789 |
8435ebc2d6115b43b59f049bce70d6d4f28de2da | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x7d2797ab5e71f21c67a73ccd6dc18be3f299025ce737232a2c15ea6a9888234d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-tur-2025-11-18 | Will Spain vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | 79,204,789 | 79,204,789 |
720e877e1f7d468057a119e320521ebb11d9fec7 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x393cf1cd26cf37075c7d8c20385533b5ba8414aafa832d965a1ce757e45052ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | cof-gua-sur-2025-11-18 | Will Guatemala win on 2025-11-18? | 79,221,651 | 79,221,651 |
dc9c6c0557115d39f0ebf455a94d8b89c6a9ca16 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xabf346cab4ceffea2c57a49a30b50cb6e4f8a23f2610d70a8ddb9a8a2bb7ea5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | yes | 1 | cof-jam-kor-2025-11-18 | Will Jamaica vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | 79,221,651 | 79,221,651 |
7fc93bf2a9f092eeac8e6e0533b632e2e0867174 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xbcafc293a06ec6ea75c5b4df81fd133c0729bd7778982b7f3c37e36c24dffdce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5? | Event: what-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions... | no | 1 | bra-san-mir-2025-11-19 | Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-19? | 79,272,042 | 79,272,042 |
2e40ba5e3f9c3adf478a5190650b2486b6f3c882 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xe5de7cfcb4e4c77c546e657142e8c071d047fabaa09b8fe60c6dcae33d2d330d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-celsius-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Celsius say "Tariff" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-celsius-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "... | yes | 1 | bra-gre-vas-2025-11-19 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-11-19? | 79,272,042 | 79,272,042 |
d363e356aeb3aa1ee999e740e6ee45ceb254ef7a | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xf42f4f5155c78082d986146903a66db2082639ad32789c4356fb13bc58727eb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celsius say "Tariff" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-celsius-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during Hungary PM events on November 7? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-hungary-pm-events-on-november-7 | Choi... | yes | 0.910152 | bra-pal-vit-2025-11-19 | Will SE Palmeiras vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? | 79,272,042 | 79,654,684 |
10e3a72312f3a8c050d35378141f9a01dafff6ed | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x2cfc5cf417e4130361a9c6346fa473e51c92a29193cba4ffc9115271cf2cc7f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during Hungary PM events on November 7? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-hungary-pm-events-on-november-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) | Event: cs2-vit-mouz-2025-11-08 | Choice: mouz | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | kor-poh-jeo-2025-11-22 | Will Pohang Steelers FC vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC end in a draw? | 79,358,166 | 79,358,166 |
ccd0e70d64f36dff610c13bf2799746dfd3581a8 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x7396aaa618bfbe1d535a9283e64a6d6a0a999d8d4787959a36b25a22a566685d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) | Event: cs2-vit-mouz-2025-11-08 | Choice: mouz | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner | Event: cs2-fal2-furia-2025-11-08 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bdd (Gwak Bo-seong) be named MVP in... | yes | 1 | kor-gwa-uls-2025-11-22 | Will Gwangju FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,358,166 | 79,358,166 |
d3af8f3e14b5d94790b907e90b1595dbbe8a1ab5 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x3d9a4091c28fec165a212ade75d36ebacad52989b547159a351014891a523487 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner | Event: cs2-fal2-furia-2025-11-08 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bdd (Gwak Bo-seong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Event: league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 0.509235 | kor-gwa-uls-2025-11-22 | Will Gwangju FC vs. Ulsan HD FC end in a draw? | 79,358,166 | 79,654,679 |
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