sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dd4791734aaa6ae47d9416fb2c1732e134bcb6a2 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x880d6408ae69466b2eba21dc66af10e25644740c8b8ca815a8c7384ddb0bb042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 8? | Event: solana-price-on-august-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will New England vs. D.C. United end in a draw? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Wil... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on August 13? | 75,165,648 | 75,165,648 |
8770ca5bd22ee90aba702814c089c441bcf607b1 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x3d6259cf6de34a5499a169a033acd5c97dbb62267293d232c119fd6a7732abdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will New England vs. D.C. United end in a draw? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Atlanta United beat CF Montreal? | Event: mls-soccer-montreal-vs-atlanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will New England ... | no | 1 | uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575 | Will PSG win on 2025-08-13? | 75,173,844 | 75,173,844 |
5c6a41c03236a3f5add4fc1cbff748ee24747528 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x736de7d6e9162fa77ed9963e75ae57e8e27ba78c0ad08221dab71cf7ef675f90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Atlanta United beat CF Montreal? | Event: mls-soccer-montreal-vs-atlanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will New England beat D.C. United? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United beat New Engla... | yes | 1 | uefa-super-cup-final-psg-vs-tottenham-575 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-13? | 75,173,847 | 75,173,847 |
0caef26ed9e130db4797475dbe6135994bb9d176 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x0bfd30241a98afd4fcd17e110948fbcb30775094d785dc1dd49251e0a0d2b6ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will New England beat D.C. United? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United beat New England? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Philadelphia beat Toront... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? | 75,173,999 | 75,173,999 |
d2faccae6b1540dd32bc7605af0712b8264f8447 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x48fc2d5845a95f0c0b2f354cd9e11414a3f49cabd85e3b0aff5aad598cfc35bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United beat New England? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-dc-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Philadelphia beat Toronto? | Event: mls-soccer-philadelphia-vs-toronto | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 15? | 75,246,336 | 75,246,336 |
bf0dfa7f68dc621b6a0f10c4a5db5ccc10fb879c | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x18a06fbeaa67bf24d74bdcf87ca9b8c8004cc1bdf110aa004e1cc8d3f38786e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Philadelphia beat Toronto? | Event: mls-soccer-philadelphia-vs-toronto | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by decision? | Event: ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Portlan... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 15? | 75,246,455 | 75,246,455 |
5aea6070a5a6504fb966db093a02462b2eef0bab | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x3be6be83ab864926e62192a3a0cebd81eb9dbd35fc4380ec3f35867a84c9577d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by decision? | Event: ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Portland beat Dallas? | Event: mls-soccer-dallas-vs-portland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Houston Dynamo b... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on August 15? | 75,246,457 | 75,246,457 |
c0158b25512d14bc51d0c3c025d2c0e4899f9404 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x8c80f488ac849f72be0102142a526c421517664f10190d6d2dd640c3a5757896 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Portland beat Dallas? | Event: mls-soccer-dallas-vs-portland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Houston Dynamo beat Austin FC? | Event: mls-soccer-austin-vs-houston | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will LAFC beat Chicago? | Event: mls-soccer-chic... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 15? | 75,246,460 | 75,246,460 |
dbc7697cd2a92fd1aa62c68b06f8b5a0ac812bb7 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x187821ee7510047e274f623ed5663c43e1919cd35549fc16a1cd96a8ae7d162d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Houston Dynamo beat Austin FC? | Event: mls-soccer-austin-vs-houston | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will LAFC beat Chicago? | Event: mls-soccer-chicago-vs-lafc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Nashville beat St. Louis? | Event: mls-soccer-st-... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4000 and $4100 on August 15? | 75,246,471 | 75,246,471 |
d69332a0959eb0f9c5ed6a5fb26d6692446c4553 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x9e02f8c01559197bbce457be5386abc935bc3e92fea6aacb4eae6ce821b47b35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will LAFC beat Chicago? | Event: mls-soccer-chicago-vs-lafc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Nashville beat St. Louis? | Event: mls-soccer-st-louis-vs-nashville | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Vancouver beat San Jose | Event: mls-soccer-san-jo... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $200 on August 15? | 75,246,480 | 75,246,480 |
61b13c22413497073ad76a4784ed4d0a2eae1a7d | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xccef99d65986918e0cc4bdf602d721d670fe2739b2511d3d2e4ed34056e9a824 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Nashville beat St. Louis? | Event: mls-soccer-st-louis-vs-nashville | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Vancouver beat San Jose | Event: mls-soccer-san-jose-vs-vancouver | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicag... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15? | 75,246,482 | 75,246,482 |
e899c7433dd6f9e69b19b4623a2296103966cff7 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xf4b3608e4c8066958a403212662dae7ea2852b46ff3e8fcc0326ed0402729df2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Vancouver beat San Jose | Event: mls-soccer-san-jose-vs-vancouver | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win the ... | no | 1 | epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | 75,254,719 | 75,254,719 |
ee155f5b060e721c4f403a3228cdc9d79072f670 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xae661d27429d47225960add4fa066e13e4311f0ee25ff30cfee1768b15b2bde4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? | Event: pga-tour-fedex-st-jude-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-august-15 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 15? | 75,278,613 | 75,278,613 |
487ba5a67fb7fd9426724f519c6d76261a6d48f8 | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0xd402db702b5277ec47c30f78cb3d77179f400a462b01bcfd833106fe6df6eba6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? | Event: pga-tour-fedex-st-jude-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? | Event: pga-tour-fedex-st-jude-championship-winner | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-new-2025-08-16 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-16? | 75,282,453 | 75,282,453 |
83fbd695b8444a2339c22b031a31c10e6684d59d | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x0390d7eaf5d45e512c215f1e817f5b4daffb3d6492831c32ee60917bd4096dfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? | Event: pga-tour-fedex-st-jude-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 11? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-new-2025-08-16 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-16? | 75,282,455 | 75,282,455 |
451c69bd1d7da474533f64b63a79a168ff9534de | 0x1ef2bb12987009895f3dc3ea963a4662b143ff33 | 0x4aa6ba20cdb4db38011d097ee7bad1abf5cae5efbc38c630b8d4a64d872af50f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 11? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 11? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | 75,286,632 | 75,286,632 |
498c46c95f1d197c652d5ed887f8e7a58bd1f4ce | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0x1e0d5ef8917622e0b223c3e3112525b7ef597d23b90f6f47a0bb6cf3beb3bd57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16?
Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | 70,568,180 | 70,568,180 |
3c28616949c44126f35867c2ff8b7b4b21d28995 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0x6d79243961a28e9f95fe526b54b9855f1548b18db32d0995d0b1869f91948b5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15?
Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...... | yes | 1 | ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | 70,568,180 | 70,568,180 |
416951a513741ee2d08b464f5621af81497dbd2f | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0x9ddc59cb0f740a4f3374719b949db7853c19606bfeec0ab9069d2952911db125 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15?
Event: ucl-dor-bar... | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | 70,568,180 | 70,568,180 |
d178aa4740f8e94970a98f61e277d567e0a09e97 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0xdbbd124da6523be3c2332ddc5e4c42f1d808adbeafc9a9e555cff71b2119e622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-ars-2025-04-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? | 70,568,180 | 70,568,180 |
7bde0a5f74fc4a5cc9bfe17096615098eb888de0 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0x7024f215f463a36c942f48f4afad9be6cbfabc0cab59ba98bcd870db2a537fd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-ast-2025-04-22 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-22? | 70,862,538 | 70,862,538 |
d10bd7062387f91256bd1e1a075946e0de2308fc | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0xd4127031712b6ea6b90b69ccd5ba1c4769e0fbd61ee6c0090405b17afe4e8bc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-not-2025-04-21 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-21? | 70,862,538 | 70,862,538 |
4bca40cff8a955242d36e7c6623ac4936e4c2f72 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0x526c89be8d73fedc10641226274d10a1e1e660e5939d97fb4c1df51000613d5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | uel-ath-mun-2025-05-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-01? | 71,057,491 | 71,057,491 |
29a784c16858aa4fe9c5e07aad747b6242f52d5d | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0x56e021a4dfc000c2958c9b898cccae49959cbf4a64f2eb5035d7cf0d8c85db5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-psg-2025-04-29 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-29? | 71,057,491 | 71,057,491 |
deba21b99042c360543a698ac78b5cc5bc0b9171 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0xebb1a8ccb537372d0a5c20988f81a283294e2bf6d3916d2cced959d586f60fe8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-bod-2025-05-01 | Will Tottenham vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw? | 71,057,491 | 71,057,491 |
f7764e0fd64cb9b235722c0e907498383e826ce2 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0xf2fbc85f36154ed621f978bf44c327dd44bb517f3d8acf376d32c9f024132cb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-int-2025-04-30 | Will Inter win on 2025-04-30? | 71,057,491 | 71,057,491 |
d613a2620575d1541aadbf0cc2e105b73747b724 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0x0524779b47629e5cb15572152e8c3d137d902a971baa3365f3dd8e11d9dd5f69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Will Ipswich win on 2025-05-03? | 71,547,811 | 71,547,811 |
4611971e43631b5efef1937360ae094e619225ce | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0x4c36046cf35b0e550f3afa1ad4a60789077f5c4c1ce9a528ba7768b9d6fb00db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-ful-2025-05-03 | Will Fulham win on 2025-05-03? | 71,547,811 | 71,547,811 |
10723ceb05eabe2bc300333cda853d9de0de48af | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0xb9b884ab2dc73235ae1defa3ed5271faa0e9ead9843c261e961b0543592b3eda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | uel-mun-ath-2025-05-08 | Will Manchester United vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | 71,547,811 | 71,547,811 |
f770290a4e71fcb4a859c3ea18ba6cf60ea2d0c8 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0xc0e885cb9eda565246a82090fa65afc77c868d98653f334250641241459f5ccd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | uel-bod-tot-2025-05-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08? | 71,547,811 | 71,547,811 |
b078803d2586a56b51c05cd7c5ebad9c3e09bf30 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0xc4d0cada597290b2759f0ef527562b9d61f009fbcc3b56fd21ff828d0d43423d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ars-2025-05-07 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07? | 71,547,811 | 71,547,811 |
37891a78d34e14bb98c43105a04f64577ab80f89 | 0x1f094d94479721a42ff46e565b412d97a8c5e57f | 0xffb8295483d1dfc5b9558e79fe7c83e96ebd850c3a5f2379b9c5876f5ec4dc01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-04-16? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? | 71,547,811 | 71,547,811 |
086fbac17a87566bdd691da3833d71624074b797 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xcd6f85edf1b600a7016b45c73ce6f31120be711bc32b1aa944edd7db0010b50f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy
Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | mcilroy | 0 | us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | 72,771,795 | 72,773,203 |
95d8b3b0de4c5d4e354b8e6bd3e0a4f75fd63d31 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x304c15e7f3e83402e60b783f155492f207ec76c92a24d963fe17fd49c23dd959 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open?
Event: us-open-third-round-leader
Predict the user's choice ... | no | 1 | us-open-third-round-leader | Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | 72,783,532 | 72,783,532 |
5c0dc0c7f93909e8ab78e97db439f9d885ea8016 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xeac6c89e1fbe19a0273cc3956143d39b2655403967968938bf879bafe7432b2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | yes | 1 | us-open-third-round-leader | Will J.J. Spaun be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | 72,784,127 | 72,784,127 |
29e684cc92edae4a902018ebed9190c438d5bdbc | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x655e5ca101c466b6293aa15e06173b78b293221803d56e35551f708cd82eb352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.000063 | will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | 72,788,479 | 72,788,479 |
83cceb6b625c11ca47917069ff575a3179a11522 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x39adf00f000bf978a7f9f6fadf67ceabceee776d237702287d371131bda6e24e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | israel-strike-on-iran-on | Israel strike on Iran on June 15? | 72,788,903 | 72,788,903 |
7dc0566559e655dcfdefc893821ae82d98cc750b | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x6964358a638f8db65b19aa710d942bb3a702438a58533470614a71ce096d2161 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | rountree jr. | 0.000049 | ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. | 72,789,006 | 72,866,202 |
3d9a46be78948a8d3dc7d27dd99036db0cb3180f | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x1f96ae92bb56176b892e06b24d7f6f54d1c54e82981d544523b7f86410fe0a59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.000005 | israel-strike-on-iran-on | Israel strike on Iran on June 16? | 72,802,691 | 72,802,886 |
75c46d803d4d588104b7b5237a9913ef0a9ec9ba | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x052d57cb01437fefba9bef4c0fd06c4cd97acd628d193697bbd11f6c8bd62d68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.199989 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-july-2025 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? | 72,812,125 | 72,812,125 |
0b648e05393f263b786cee760f69befb17006659 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xc94d93a9adf89a2fe3e7ae6ddd2b36d00ee5ce6a099fc5a8c777af19ca54b7d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.000017 | israel-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by-next-friday | Israel announces end of military operations against Iran by Friday? | 72,812,418 | 72,845,766 |
eb572d1b66917032bb6714d311c595540db5702a | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xfdfc57cfbf0631eb2fc4f6b50d484ac1f0ccac9a9f04cfea2ae75cde9be45bd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.000008 | minnesota-suspect-vance-boelter-still-on-the-run-tuesday | Minnesota suspect Boelter still on the run Tuesday? | 72,822,610 | 72,822,698 |
10ce50c9c4a7a2e29ba73d4172dc81bc093666d0 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x29cba9b8ebe06da94eb6b7ed7342e9aa69de897f7175352901fc513b4cd0962f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | minnesota-shooting-suspect-vance-boelter-captured-by-sunday | Minnesota shooting suspect Vance Boelter captured by Sunday? | 72,823,085 | 72,826,518 |
88be5d0170274362f49c5f62ec7698b6740a2d59 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x05985398cca2660ab3f8b0cb8b4ee89e70be66aac03fc1af6a64fa28d654eb78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | kuniev | 0.001598 | ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Kuniev | 72,823,979 | 72,823,979 |
d295d423aea18940ce3beaa0437c86948845cc63 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x6dcb9711a01ad19fc4bddbd2f47795a6a4f8fc14738799ebc0e0a4600e6f9f81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | israel-strike-on-iran-on | Israel strike on Iran on June 17? | 72,824,927 | 72,829,106 |
276b48d4175ce6e44cc5d7b6e080ba550d72de17 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xaca5a7083e08239ec7784abfad5a3f1d9d3f8af5b3f5a77e1730381449d4ab11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-canadian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points-371 | Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? | 72,826,378 | 72,826,378 |
083d7997b789a2bc800f6365f0d7fe3ea7b943ff | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x2f2569f8447222c1c49fba5959c1145d4dedbd2b558d605169e3a9ededab7b28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | f1-canadian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points-371 | Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? | 72,826,517 | 72,826,517 |
72177c3a452f58242c8a50386a49f5cd19cc8c54 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x7b58cbd9c5d270a5803d61be85dc6980bb5d096f9552ba4b433b84b904bce091 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | down | 0.000007 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-16 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? | 72,827,882 | 72,827,882 |
529c177e0f9b89411e57f65ef8a5cbb6a32108a9 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xff978244225c5ae27bd68ae7f03a40bea88581f5f119fcbce5eed17ee858908b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | us-china-tariff-agreement-before-90-day-deadline | US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? | 72,857,275 | 72,857,275 |
54bda7f76ae1a728131883efaeddd0583902fd39 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x10a994d424b033f4dbf9883d396b9c19ddf12f3bd08b2137e18ae9392e47e71b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | thunder | 0.000006 | nba-ind-okc-2025-06-16 | Pacers vs. Thunder | 72,863,705 | 72,863,705 |
80bd54e78576f1141b7bd4b4faa0b86b66fdade6 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xd57fd62d7fb9aade102013b0d7e03f188f5679c1fd4aed2dc31f3a25e0962fcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | bonnie-blue-unbanned-on-onlyfans-in-june | Bonnie Blue unbanned on OnlyFans in June? | 72,865,513 | 72,865,513 |
4ee86b71bcc98828427991eb6bb5f32dc1579021 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x3781472356e548fd9d7760119b34f93089b732774619046ac1fb98fd58c44757 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.549377 | iran-x-israel-conflict-ends-before-july | Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? | 72,868,604 | 72,870,367 |
ab39007603e4a69dc335977919f1fc895db338a5 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0 | us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | US military action against Iran before July? | 72,894,157 | 73,003,001 |
05a35e56d83310041c16a9684567ae09134ac816 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x4165ce9bc7b8d4ece3ddad8786c7ab6aec3bc66401e90a4cf3e58da732b7c7fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | oilers | 0.000003 | nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-17 | Oilers vs. Panthers | 72,900,019 | 72,903,059 |
b032bf845560d223d36279f2a88951cd700a73f2 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x6d01320df2c73a9a44408e376ed20f1aaed4698fdd287dcca265b369477ca9d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.000013 | will-trump-talk-to-putin-before-july | Trump x Putin talk before July? | 72,923,206 | 72,948,917 |
7e125b789c74f04a1f9ed19abdae454d73e814a2 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xb2f2bdc4427cfe0b7ae878355610478ad2384e387705e42cf8c8f596193488c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.000004 | us-military-action-against-iran-by-friday | US military action against Iran by Friday? | 72,930,908 | 72,969,662 |
082dc6c46d987086e6203bf245a8a1262b9dce2d | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xffdd774123c13df21ce755bfd4f65bde47a74f1377ea73c8b130d84c59831173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | 72,937,559 | 72,937,559 |
e25d7de705c7cbabeccc81e240ce5fe69d39a0b0 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xfadacc133ce62a342f5237b69c9fa861d11cf90633bf047384c4729635c440ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | trump-x-khamenei-talk-before-july | Trump x Khamenei talk before July? | 72,943,313 | 72,943,313 |
adc5856f8a9917235e2354bda18ff1bae58747a7 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x4872f46049e63f6b62294dd5e51f8be6351c8b0758a3641085bba1519a578898 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | us-military-action-against-iran-by-thursday | US military action against Iran by Thursday? | 72,944,621 | 72,949,712 |
3adcf9b3bba3ddc2c7e52cc2807eec1ede5f181c | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x23d41e767eec3aa1d88bae98d173cf6db58c7a4925822ce0c9be8ea8b87da611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | giants | 0.000012 | mlb-cle-sf-2025-06-18 | Guardians vs. Giants | 72,946,289 | 72,946,289 |
3a274ad0e57c8975b6d29feaf4a61108042df2d8 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x63a164a52b22a57374eb3f9f38ad65ab5c7302e46ef4ffa6d450cd60767cbbdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2025 | U.S. fertility rate up in Q1 2025? | 72,947,786 | 72,950,181 |
9185a60f64bb2f4ef7ade4f28f8d9f20c0534005 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xe8e45500a70994cfba780d673681edd0b5ba68e5896aca1ca3f8cb1a466cb4e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.00012 | pga-tour-travelers-championship-winner | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2025 Travelers Championship? | 72,967,618 | 72,967,618 |
2ced284818722eb2c4f19cb280aec0487156c17f | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xed03f3ce62f25fc0115da507a2d2c4abf3445d1c7225fefa8b47da0f87206848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. Open: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy | Event: us-open-scottie-scheffler-vs-rory-mcilroy | Choice: mcilroy | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | pacers | 0 | nba-okc-ind-2025-06-19 | Thunder vs. Pacers | 72,981,669 | 72,981,669 |
0a71713f04fccd8ef73997fc686b488a8591e81c | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x1a3c2f2e593bfd2b1828b733c28277fd74e336599be6f3ecc1b94dc2488b265c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will J.J. Spaun be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | dodgers | 0 | mlb-sd-lad-2025-06-19 | Padres vs. Dodgers | 72,988,890 | 72,988,890 |
8ac62e63da17ad0a0bbe855ca43c76b1dd7d0a55 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x2bf52074c1f81b4a2940af847e3abb3e0a3d1c05adcace151b07b627e4803b40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will J.J. Spaun be the third round leader at the 2025 U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-third-round-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Event: will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.328599462939991e-05
3. Questi... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20? | 73,012,689 | 73,012,689 |
3592320f87e1e6f537dcdbff5179fe5477eed012 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x8309342a85299593b182d0e73d6e889cbcfeb21b153c98b248967555088b9d5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Event: will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.328599462939991e-05
2. Question: Israel strike on Iran on June 15? | Event: israel-strike-on-iran-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Roun... | yes | 1 | pga-tour-travelers-championship-winner | Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2025 Travelers Championship? | 73,107,954 | 73,107,954 |
53193e483c86bd857e7c7b0f2536bd78f4e33c62 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xceafa0f7cd36d04fb732c52dfaafef68b8454bd9425e1a74261d50397fccf99b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strike on Iran on June 15? | Event: israel-strike-on-iran-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. | Event: ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | Choice: rountree jr. | Confidence: 4.862298429713221e-05
3. Question: Israel strike on Iran on ... | yes | 1 | pga-tour-travelers-championship-winner | Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2025 Travelers Championship? | 73,107,955 | 73,107,955 |
af6870e8f43143de7b893fc70bdb7367d2809a33 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xa1bf592d5ba4d413a469cef7d4cf6bfbb0ec1a890d816a08c015c883ae369e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. | Event: ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | Choice: rountree jr. | Confidence: 4.862298429713221e-05
2. Question: Israel strike on Iran on June 16? | Event: israel-strike-on-iran-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.436948202980535e-06
3. Question: Israel... | yes | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the 2025 Austrian Grand Prix? | 73,380,477 | 73,380,477 |
7f2dea155bb74e5c7399811b79854c9d44a9aaa6 | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xe5a28f65b1bce59346b567907974eb46549a997464168b3b27cc2bbcf4d4e2d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strike on Iran on June 16? | Event: israel-strike-on-iran-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.436948202980535e-06
2. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-july-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1999885694366801
3. Question: Israel announc... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-june | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 73,424,229 | 73,424,229 |
24768bb60c7cd1d56673668dd447566c14d391eb | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0x7533173253d5573ca8132c9f595e5387476185c6690e1e12fab00784a2717ea5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-july-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1999885694366801
2. Question: Israel announces end of military operations against Iran by Friday? | Event: israel-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by-next-fri... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? | 73,573,961 | 73,573,961 |
ad300753b57481803ad1068d03e8ae572e89399c | 0x1f1f4b7d82a68ac3141db0f549e348fd486594aa | 0xc4b6bc6f5280a5249e48d33bd7e47d8eeca47e83383a625591c9ff68363837bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel announces end of military operations against Iran by Friday? | Event: israel-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.6517166230618498e-05
2. Question: Minnesota suspect Boelter still on the run Tuesday? | Event: minnesota-suspect-va... | yes | 1 | chess-superunited-rapid-blitz-croatia-winner | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament? | 73,660,854 | 73,660,854 |
296805327c64acd5b0c5bdacd15a78b54d3e6220 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xce5e01da0079e481b0f5a0047fa1209e9335a258ca3b1db42a65db8526f893dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?
Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | 76,314,279 | 76,314,279 |
eb45ceb22f8e1980105a21ff9831206c591f62d1 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x1330e06b7185a6c467efcb679c91ee0270b2386fd1eb17a326acc732e80ce20b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12?
Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12
Predict... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | 76,380,253 | 76,380,253 |
4bb285e6c999e23dedb9f9d1be078b6cc1e0f275 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xba48f726e6e71deb10c8b06d966f109429ca1442c411f0bf0bb6de20b3d9ae21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | dota-2-the-international-2025 | Will HEROIC win The International 2025 Tournament? | 76,418,367 | 76,418,367 |
7dfe8c60c185701ca1d2e9e5f147747da960973e | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x246616c3d94ab9782206a8f24fc541c4d099de4692abd76d3792fe9623bfb7ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-13 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $250 on September 13? | 76,418,378 | 76,418,378 |
9513930e8ad152c91e03213ca95b7dc5f8a06dd3 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x9b56d4f760b8a8c17fc296bc327828760cff854100324e8040f62ddefb6ae9ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | emmys-limited-or-anthology-series | Will Adolescence win the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series? | 76,480,634 | 76,480,634 |
b7b82247f5d10a8e420c1ae82f172949f2939e8e | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x32c88b53df02fd95f698534432cdf5f35d182b78fc75a2d7209e4d3e85b988a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | the-long-walk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "The Long Walk" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $15m? | 76,505,623 | 76,505,623 |
beecf1b08b8a0de4ca905f2830e49909e5aed9b7 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xe4aabcf01a580700b2256a2b7e53b8581233f0f0198cc4095435fabc0455f277 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $260 on September 15? | 76,505,654 | 76,505,654 |
75f719a146205992878591516d2972bdbb0cbae3 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x5061402084fecfab2f36f27f38dd4767f446be1c6fe961575ba808cf8a1c4a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 20? | 76,708,628 | 76,708,628 |
470b9bef34651b59c96b3d7f0f68eeb7c0d1e04d | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x7648ff4fb79f5b87496b7a5cf1c68c91ee9504e6d021aaffa4923136afefbcc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-20 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 20? | 76,708,640 | 76,708,640 |
7751a6373b9d9433556fad05a5c534d00d37e147 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xd330b9252b5967abdf36b7e8ffd390c1982f82083d20f25ac69b78cf6cda40f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 20? | 76,708,653 | 76,708,653 |
a3904ab784fa0457a5f70b3a34a05091a098db3b | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x7b93416a890c2ae3a6bb5cca0bfde2913401bd6a5d49d503df98542e8783bdac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,752,738 | 76,752,738 |
8ed5601bbaff8fef561439e12cf1321c29043067 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x366da14d7e766c08973cfe567dd3d69bf342f8afe628f563c28d7674c72ddd84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 21? | 76,752,759 | 76,752,759 |
ec1ac69b8fc9253362ed66080413ff7bb7b1ed8e | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xe05b642d2bbb406bb966b67222363f3388089abdde487ae7fe37bb7219bf370b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | a-big-bold-beautiful-journey-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? | 76,794,080 | 76,794,080 |
b17d98f53e33a5a2a65321131a76b9b1df68df0d | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xc3fde7bf9b50c4aa663b74b46f9b31467b624dc6ec9bb524bf6204c0da4a7ac3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on September 22? | 76,794,093 | 76,794,093 |
670b9b13e5068fe660ce620a1b9fad388e145c99 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x38d6dd8d5e910b16cade775e3497d114a836f118ad05efd3e633808c70e134a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 23? | 76,831,392 | 76,831,392 |
05791dbe9c042f4d59afe4180acadf2c7e6da403 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x68cca7da6aef756407d6a05b6c52d79ba4047857ad7358712102746727f02d4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 24? | 76,856,107 | 76,856,107 |
51fc8827c4420a6fc9acda47d14aed424d1bb5a5 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xe01ebf90d82d6966ad5567fd62ad4bd1c08531b393129800552dc99b00f3132d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 24? | 76,856,119 | 76,856,119 |
c1258d1418432564f4146f27f1b92d7dcfd032af | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x32355e57dde322f7e5a338d09f20e726eeefa720da9a3f9b7f3b9014d6ecc1a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Dalitso Kabame win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 76,875,420 | 76,875,420 |
69baeb86ffddbbd870aab3dbc44e9b1eab47ae82 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xf19cfffdd3921926978bd1c757449121eb982435560d120bfef41bff8a7fe7d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108,000 on September 25? | 76,903,855 | 76,903,855 |
3a7291cbde60add9ee5e2e235bb9a3363ceb9a60 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x2c35c9f68455f324ab36a1fa72711ba7614519bc87df2e65d10500f1b41bbb71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 25? | 76,903,886 | 76,903,886 |
a4dc98566dd532fb2a66106f06c5fab0ddde93b3 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x31b44a061c2e7506f3bfd82803e85128f73001500619517636a7082f4b4ea75b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26? | 76,944,103 | 76,944,103 |
3fe100d3604b1fc0068d775011c84beee6d90ad7 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xdf86e2f1d35b0552e5c93ee0ab0bff9d538c8855abe2ce14a930bde08ab67fc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,944,114 | 76,944,114 |
47ce02d335f56f42cc4001de78a69b55969f0bcc | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x0dd695e861ad8a1ab930ed2bc65faf736e8764401b9cbd740460ccbb59ef5197 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-26 | Will the price of Solana be less than $190 on September 26? | 76,944,126 | 76,944,126 |
b00cb1804f3a0bdca5a801d8fcdba938ab531fc6 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xea5ae2db3b8423aa30697560d644ec9c3ef869eb88781501bb378d8fa392e14c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-26 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,000 on September 26? | 76,944,137 | 76,944,137 |
387f2f53eca6e4f52fe8a2cbddf935af68d71865 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x12da60c6d4ba4f00954916093d26d2c1619e0abb5444092de99d49a3aa3a7dc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on September 27? | 76,988,594 | 76,988,594 |
778bdfb7f8638d57b41e58fba644a53bdbb8efaf | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xd72f36a2f87174d10b2751d6d94ac62f84edcdc65bbe7f3fba31d01c70ec3d1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | golf-ryder-cup-winner | Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? | 77,049,695 | 77,049,695 |
be750a84996257d51f5f8bdf551f4dda1d38d0f6 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x7ecdd73e50efb9e58ba3f5ba70216aa9a0c660aced5403325f162c034f7724d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | moldova-parliamentary-election | Will Our Party win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | 77,050,415 | 77,050,415 |
f24fb17b005eea08edaed0f807da8a87e76c31b1 | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0x19397f41fc5181e7bdbb57bf7d14d3105b2dd8c0e4988e41dc62606b5a368a77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 1? | 77,241,564 | 77,241,564 |
db8d693077fe956f3fb3ff8aab05590d5ad8071a | 0x1f38a71ab316f33f5ad3279beb9bacdc313bae68 | 0xcdd861d5e01b22c8bd72b5dacc6398099edb51f0fad9e96cafe6c06b817a9c5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? | Event: which-party-wins-4th-most-seats-in-norway-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 12? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-12 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-4 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 4? | 77,267,860 | 77,267,860 |
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