sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11845138d2f68d7621bbc9e94306fa56e4e897d9 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x0bb406db231551ff3f6155ef2d3d5aebca867329f4b135497190b40faa69620b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bdd (Gwak Bo-seong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Event: league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-12 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 0.0
3. Que... | yes | 0.898305 | kor-poh-jeo-2025-11-22 | Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,358,166 | 79,654,682 |
ed971f9aa6c3115411f9ed3e6ba58ef9b2115525 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xf719ec1efeaba6f3f115198384808dacb081565f1eee01e8978fb5d03f1158bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-12 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO (BO3) | Event: cs2-vit-tyloo-2025-11-12 | Choice: tyloo | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | ... | yes | 0.962264 | bun-bay-fre-2025-11-22 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22? | 79,384,232 | 79,384,232 |
37f45583aad5e2afeb9b156d727e6fb82ce09624 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xb6f996056b89da8cd9fa6f25fe18dac1d82441e2c6dfd3ac1467365ddc9d46bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO (BO3) | Event: cs2-vit-tyloo-2025-11-12 | Choice: tyloo | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | Event: cs2-mglz-ts7-2025-11-13 | Choice: spirit | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Disney say "DraftKings" during ear... | yes | 1 | ere-gro-zwo-2025-11-23 | Will FC Groningen vs. PEC Zwolle end in a draw? | 79,423,391 | 79,423,391 |
64e3024ce4703f89f2d8d83aaa3006b2358c7e87 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xdfa04cfea1725323ed508741a625e2a91a6a8638ad068835aa7c0567a5d37855 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | Event: cs2-mglz-ts7-2025-11-13 | Choice: spirit | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Disney say "NFL... | yes | 1 | mls-fcc-mia-2025-11-23 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-23? | 79,463,185 | 79,463,185 |
5a230ac5cf32580266e70fb56abceaaea9999cee | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x64a70da18020ab69abdae17c484cd9f657c99a6e89c1d48b47b8e5ba8fe09f89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Disney say... | yes | 0.000066 | which-turkey-will-trump-pardon-874 | Will Trump pardon both turkeys? | 79,489,278 | 79,489,278 |
073de42d98128d42fa75ff077bf8c136f3ae6aff | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x3c5d338ceb18a3cf3138789fb6347074d3238064eaa8f84a3c3f1a4e4abf6715 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Disney say "Ac... | legacy | 0 | cs2-lgc-red9-2025-11-25 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs RED Canids (BO1) | 79,489,449 | 79,492,989 |
e99400710d379f3a6fb3b0a3a6dfed2d158a8218 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0xd7b863813307cdf90d910592ae9c8eadd9fa6a7c935dcd0d5b551dbb20b1cd40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Disney say ... | yes | 0.448596 | which-turkey-will-trump-pardon-874 | Will Trump pardon Waddle? | 79,517,463 | 79,654,679 |
05e0f2d9011d096f388d0d3aa52a137435607175 | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x0c9bb7540a0e854bc59e4480e0f586dc8d830e07bf0083358173df878e3eef5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Counter-Strike:... | yes | 0.908274 | which-turkey-will-trump-pardon-874 | Will Trump pardon Gobble? | 79,517,463 | 79,654,680 |
79ad97bcf7e65d0b415f2a6a4ee233bd88d1048b | 0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769 | 0x484e9b6c9fea36d5fee056399526e8b153b17850340e9095225c4dcb48460e51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-pssnua-pain-2025-11-14 | Choice: pain | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - M... | yes | 1 | bra-bra-fec-2025-11-26 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,649,860 | 79,649,860 |
7efd422e41355e041b731bca3a19f9748df811c9 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x4bb13687c3c6258868b86001f18b3d57f44d9f990c765af0261c4eba2ff6d545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0.000016 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | 77,683,662 | 77,683,662 |
0411ecd379c3c27409fd021a24f91ab7730906df | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x4ea24118581a34be9ab9eacabfe699eda01b0aa23d5c34d9f811040df5ec1939 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence f... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | 77,698,422 | 79,426,873 |
b49a705f0aaa1ef08e4a246858e78ff0baa11615 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xa44866f27ba4852f8d01a05ca8103f3193c85028762fd0aeda173f7fb70a52ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Quest... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-16-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3PM ET | 77,769,029 | 77,769,029 |
6f3c101a93792fd897786eaf46da6eca7c9453cf | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xed136cb1b84dbf7f02ffeb961d8529ba9410eb4f0a0bf38de142e57ec1c5453b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-17-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 1AM ET | 77,787,507 | 77,787,507 |
2914a1cbed0a14f18ba9f77a9a38b2c78333c6c5 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xab407e60ffb3d9cd21ace5a344886c510d28ea99a800781edc8696dad203bb83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-17-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5AM ET | 77,795,198 | 77,795,198 |
0523326723244f626060576622c9940d119ab135 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x148bb96e69e8f592326d292cf01dd955723d463fc794c06d2c3fe0531d603536 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.0003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-17-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 9AM ET | 77,801,945 | 77,801,945 |
b23028a9d5f4d4b0300b4d255224361ecbb8629c | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x363749c3abe633aac04ae06e214e61be717a1c2aefbfd0dc5ce6f4788edb105d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.0002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | 78,100,797 | 78,100,797 |
cb46d9ae85c885c0f65234c1d3776bc58bd3ccbc | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x17c9ad005e723ff99f61cae9ab66bcbced2fc0e6f1c641eb85b575f6571593b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1AM ET | 78,132,379 | 79,426,908 |
94724eb7a85ec5212442389fae6086f2cd71e039 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x6e0c3669a432667125c40a1b26648da9e150b1cc626e02945040b79426540044 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.000226 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | 78,134,405 | 78,134,405 |
65a04d3c94b72c3137d57de5ff5382eaea23d619 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x2eeea24389627fc6f5b48b30af5049a7c52645869b6ab436cebe69730ce1a88a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.000114 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1AM ET | 78,218,945 | 78,218,945 |
5b18d40e60d32a13d4e14b4f8aaad3838bf117be | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xe3bbd5fdb5be67890cda6796566f92d7f6cef2daf9b81431f9303a1f56042b48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.0006 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET | 78,221,404 | 78,221,404 |
d753f7cec901901dbe3e2292ff5d4d9fee973415 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x79f765d65bb49cf28a12f0ab13aa68ac8f9181129dfe7f9750c386fcb4b5b82f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10AM ET | 78,235,266 | 78,235,266 |
2420662d1d85bc7f2fa23ff691cfa002acea37f7 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x925e6cd081f00615237847af8fd6bf4de63701e504d19dbc12a472b680c07d8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-28-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET | 78,273,663 | 78,273,663 |
7d9df89585a0325e6e9516e01349de43fb92756f | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xe3c6c844606303454eb3185ab0bba4c18884d87c80bf6b6d8b422a3378c1dc64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-28-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10AM ET | 78,278,872 | 78,278,872 |
53b8c8a991b1e10f08a25a59a35ffaa5b858a125 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x6ea45c0b4ba9d03729f6ea5a4972f26e9070038ad00560ad6fc319ac3386db82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-29-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4AM ET | 78,310,856 | 78,310,856 |
c92c86400311c718f9705835946bdbea42d62969 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x138a7376a7ef0a990385e90e33a92f92b14fec3acebb8ec9a83b33056c6bc66f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-29-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET | 78,320,106 | 78,339,120 |
7ed0c31d9d284e8a7231ca30fb20d13e9e72fcd6 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x4f6a630f5a00a9aff9ea0f03688e3ef56c2a8dc9c088814521f07d7d974e91cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-29-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET | 78,343,094 | 78,343,094 |
5ab66e2d3f3197e0b46401ca905e659be891ea04 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xaa6c3e0fb10be6cf138eeec65c55f12a1d851183af1cc110b24605c7490ef324 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-30-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10PM ET | 78,387,091 | 78,395,410 |
f0d0602d07631773935caafd2cba7a0b3c75a731 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x71e137738fcacd52eedf05bc751012472376a450cd4cbade9e6714e65bf8de22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-30-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11PM ET | 78,389,215 | 79,426,901 |
f72887bc1c276cbb2de0de1fa5971f8b64125efb | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x259117d46908ec861a7534bfd0632e094b5612e85d0454d6ddaf0fb7068b01e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.0004 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3AM ET | 78,395,840 | 78,395,840 |
70e1245b5dae15f057d5f766712741da90b3bacd | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x7c2518a777f81886315d778563bc6971357dd7c2675f675abeaac84ca7c77c89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET | 78,396,906 | 78,402,124 |
0275a8f8a8efc588fdeaa77683d087504fb543a7 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xb31352b7d2e30dd3700f4b89d3d72c461b438c9680444e35d4b69cc9e9049417 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10AM ET | 78,408,190 | 78,413,051 |
77ef7dc715ecf9deba90f8ec214c00e3bd77fdc3 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0x20b1819fecd584f9c01b2843f0c86be651cbd3399fc72df5e0bd2e2ea18a4a39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11AM ET | 78,409,226 | 78,413,051 |
86fd73e230936e1528e3cc4a433784a808387e19 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xaa1864643823ebb5579b1d7c58b9453ee38c116a0c8b9c232014e5b13bbe3d5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.0002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12PM ET | 78,411,889 | 78,411,889 |
8ed592b38c3ea5a49207eade2af45560b4df4445 | 0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f | 0xa0e73c3923227590b46c8d81f46df4b3d9ab37317af16a4dbf3310306940fc97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.0003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1PM ET | 78,413,414 | 78,413,414 |
f1cc95e6c900a367c42f67944147b03ebd79121f | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x1c36d1ddb38291252a0109ac487f6b841b67e40458a0072549b29a14783faae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12?
Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | 77,625,776 | 77,625,776 |
805c6969a548b01f49cc2b46f71a70f8c929633f | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x75c1ffa92c0bf7eb88b2a459a6e7946120678f38e998be04e93958bb3eb66cdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13?
Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "co... | yes | 1 | fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | 77,637,350 | 77,637,350 |
236b2ad6f6188fe10b638dc023dc6e85b6dd1c0f | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0xbb56299d0ebe4ce4516b0d1b1c4691726c13fc528cf32b6fb73e50f33701aa50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14?
Event: fif-kor1-pa... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | 77,677,603 | 77,677,603 |
e42e28579f2c137847e69535e08d5ecb965d1ef6 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x2e416061b83fde7122371690dd509d21eb8122946083dfec75c60632e622c672 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | caf-rsa-rwa-2025-10-14 | Will South Africa win on 2025-10-14? | 77,689,379 | 77,689,379 |
7ece932353c6ba45bbdba581d3bdde197370667c | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x3bd5e87d85dbcd5413b9806d18c145c301391cb13401d7b27d6a59bb52b75770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | efa-har7-gai-2025-10-14 | Will Gainsborough Trinity FC win on 2025-10-14? | 77,708,420 | 77,708,420 |
83c35ad0d5b5b11464cb41fd2b8e6a418456df68 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x55065ab2c09360e89a43e6494f0fff733220a6644595d348d813e5748539da5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | fif-usa-aus-2025-10-14 | Will United States win on 2025-10-14? | 77,708,420 | 77,708,420 |
ffff352addc845757bcead62a3c1d652cb5ccfbd | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x7d13eb44f68d602b6814a5b7f749846cf9ad7b4631812a2c34ea36a0cdb2401b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-int-2025-10-15 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-15? | 77,755,393 | 77,755,393 |
f457d747d460eccae00b83ebe61eab4f779afd66 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0xc2376d3f4d84ee4694fb2b3330a3033fb5e834cfa5bba7ab605a90ba0f1c6a22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-15? | 77,755,393 | 77,755,393 |
111550deb1a49cf22321125e4441011f61ed478e | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0xa1b8b63216293f86e7d5477cc38183c8896f34bf3589dc28375dac4b9aaa1c61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-16? | 77,813,098 | 77,813,098 |
b40674e343ade22ed9520712fce001e31b90aaf6 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x31be41e9675539280bb9c2a1e8b7f99cd75120e3c3c6c85dd156f0b6c59392bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | arg-rac-ald-2025-10-17 | Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-17? | 77,842,003 | 77,842,003 |
9b9dfb41a7c5080eb0d68f71095467d220a7d2b1 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x27fa002bf1e91268fa0b4232b3d35892f15f7b6c26af17749a10ec3a8c218b53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 77,928,125 | 77,928,125 |
b449bc691b50faa8cec28470471ed71a6f8bfe82 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0xd705cb52a282c6c81f15d6c9eb8ab6132262e068a4d0bc33c051884bc08b7485 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | arg-rie-iac-2025-10-20 | Will CD Riestra win on 2025-10-20? | 77,956,331 | 77,956,331 |
86730d4a9989a2e47e659f8395f69eadd24e7ee8 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x63959ed1363cb2394dbe2758e4f1c4d3bb99444647c3477bc257e3b8ac08eed8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | arg-ind-pla-2025-10-24 | Will CA Independiente win on 2025-10-24? | 78,156,667 | 78,156,667 |
76b71a2b030bec64c19bc8eac0834ec52055d5bb | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x473b561753e5a80e8d3c6de1d093da4640305b76d9d11486c13b7830a84d7c9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? | 78,205,652 | 78,205,652 |
1c55ebdbd909dc73df0bb27eab621e5301a9de96 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x162d9ebfb3a8e4925785a98c488a168787e68cf45455600e187149bb01629fe5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | bra-flu-csc-2025-10-29 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,372,889 | 78,372,889 |
2bf4d713b1725b69c0c9e435f2b18be1b44d957f | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x5584b886e7d53a631796e189f68605df4d68798b10ce2320e9a3b79a0c2a182b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | fl1-nan-asm-2025-10-29 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,372,889 | 78,372,889 |
62d5ddf0e6cb777a7e9e2f7578317458dd9a8b80 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x7f239d8c0ed1f6298e49fff041993eed1a07499d7a630ca38f2085996a8e5f6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | arg-new-uni-2025-10-31 | Will CA Unión win on 2025-10-31? | 78,457,824 | 78,457,824 |
919dcbd76ca0041f88e36baa816c1153bd2d490f | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x185ead9822ce7a1b2dfd2c4102d601ed38b7d97ef465193a625f3a7ef000e499 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | bra-cru-vit-2025-11-01 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,468,649 | 78,468,649 |
5e76d88867f805c8ab9293a99dda88c281f4aec3 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x028b4e739e10901bb3b4f0eb07683c4511b38cd20c42a66648c6756438874718 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | fl1-aja-olm-2025-11-01 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-01? | 78,490,324 | 78,490,324 |
bc8cc6c7c1257d1c29159725c1ce15b3038b00fb | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 78,490,324 | 78,490,324 |
a623da6a135e4683d0b3c9991ff440cc57384433 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x3e51773c78b59cd5fda8ac0ff497ff00d12c88a35af811f2aa71fe8569d16014 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | arg-vel-tal-2025-11-01 | Will CA Talleres win on 2025-11-01? | 78,490,324 | 78,490,324 |
651b8edd82b108d06408f30db9060368ed1c7221 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x7313ef7f8ee13603355872b5e985d614c5aa0c2a00d201aeb24a121bb35b7d7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-val-2025-11-01 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01? | 78,490,324 | 78,490,324 |
2cdd5e8d8caa0b4eeab5040269096f915d28e3ca | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0xc32b7f21c709209e9b2f57045ab374cd1e58540ceafeb652bf2fe433d626b1e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | bra-fla-rec-2025-11-01 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? | 78,490,324 | 78,490,324 |
792873a36cb2dd044d9e7eb1c62fecccf46a2fbc | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x30e2c42bd88554e87be74d98c951ca10a21344c067e35cc0a0e3a1cd78a5a528 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | ere-utr-nec-2025-11-02 | Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,854 | 78,506,854 |
a4e542cfa908678f1f1228b68cb681703a7acb7d | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0xde6fcefd9a8cad8fd99ed020b38d51e84d6523147fcbeaf59b1490bacfa98fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,854 | 78,506,854 |
c71ce673c5f711f205d04689064b3d4ce06375c6 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x0c310c0dd164e77c068f2a5ea99b48b2cf7570aea31965ce0bad2029efea1457 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? | 78,508,714 | 78,508,714 |
e6f150f1b18b3b35be02ad0e23685c69913b262f | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x617458741c0a2f568b12b3d72a98d96827ed4330773bac45fc891aa9886c597d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | 78,535,412 | 78,535,412 |
efe46a5ef545893a12f48da4e132aa69a2ca371e | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x75b00641afb54f05220333423d6f70be3fee7b73e27bc078492ebdb8bc792fdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | bra-juv-pal-2025-11-02 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-02? | 78,535,412 | 78,535,412 |
8fbd600a8abc46c382a4b4891ef5a947339f4370 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0x8eef15dd7b486efb49ba10a8448428be920a3d72b9bcaaeb58d7dce871b69fed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | por-por-scb-2025-11-02 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-02? | 78,535,412 | 78,535,412 |
9b70853c57a0591d6117df9c975a8ba512413296 | 0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206 | 0xd37e698858516255b142ad26500ce73497f9db41f223c5a2e756be36412ba570 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-rom-2025-11-02 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-02? | 78,535,412 | 78,535,412 |
f57f69ead10cf25fc2e3ef315597ec2817361653 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x80b5a3354c824ce18c9731fb3999aa4ddc48d2bc7fc0afa2da253e8c8939015c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | 74,227,811 | 74,227,811 |
4a95a454d1ad19eea7814434b16841f13a24dedb | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xf95d35ff9011dc99d4578c8dc6db5d0931e79c811d9d888b34310b53726de996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | 74,227,811 | 74,227,811 |
e9013d15b0bac84e5c7eed35707860a37035a84b | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x12a2c0a9d95656b6e90ed196054a340e87a29dc64ecffcbb8ff78114607a7cbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET | 74,228,851 | 74,229,610 |
03797d3c61577c9bf2f4fd2623820b86fb9a0391 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x599aa88f8de1d0c5154a1366ba344bc184e8bfde4ba2aaa4a92f2ca1bbc665c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8AM ET | 74,229,610 | 74,232,139 |
be73b3b533129ec10f193e22dff4e77bbb7f739c | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x3e47f0431468b1c8375c64abad3dd5739da033591c54e0336f88829db3c5cc93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET | 74,232,436 | 74,232,914 |
5e6a86a25d121912ee8bf3fa6e2bad9d4a4d71ae | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x91ddf86e42f0350e688228a132647f6a804aa7147e52155b094989f62376fc7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11AM ET | 74,237,917 | 74,238,843 |
ab3a656b28e0a21ae2a436bcd10746d246876000 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x470933e0490c4e686da7ca9f9987aedb1983a545cd35032cced65e618d6d4e32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 3PM ET | 74,242,912 | 74,244,953 |
618f9d69f8c3fbb2667b3aa6e5539d6bcdd24beb | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xf26cb01558fc8cc24df101fc070f784ed84ffee695ca4e0a818c6e4633c7b37f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5PM ET | 74,247,894 | 74,248,085 |
246ef1928c7f07d2a121daeb96c0f49215bc8e7b | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x7d44fe3d3c604607a1154046d8603536453021966f1592fe88744ecbd1845e57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9PM ET | 74,251,853 | 74,252,466 |
52c3c19dc7fa819c25a3f70a4fd462f9fd6e65cb | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x73a6552945e96e4e38ab41528c89cd3bf5def3eb40837d547fb62db913d978a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8PM ET | 74,251,853 | 74,257,765 |
71eb614acf654eb11891b02e116d7cf52e354ffa | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xa9df8cb57998f678946e75aceb5bb88b6eeb7e6e0f57e6f5833648449548c02b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-7pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7PM ET | 74,251,853 | 74,686,839 |
a9b18d53790cb4cc1d0be959f236f805a11a0ea1 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x0ae3b615abcc56272372a1c27b649ea5aaeec07d2758c305d0f3dfaee9d7feee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11PM ET | 74,257,805 | 74,257,805 |
e6901c0f9da37fa994083920ac8c5244628d0dae | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x7f3a55aed1c28c3c8c9ce01b9783ab75caa960cfd763779440b667919462ae6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-22-12am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 12AM ET | 74,257,805 | 74,257,805 |
55ee4dc0d479c6b6c78572630df214f85a1fe64c | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xc2123a914a3647ec40184b2f2d93905317cb76736672402328b42e6b6dad2064 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-22-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 2AM ET | 74,260,979 | 74,261,442 |
fde69217f53ecef91f25f15beb5b501d900de3ff | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x30887cb283419aa5966b37106f820c41a45bc8c35fa69fc48667ba0b064104dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-22-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 3AM ET | 74,262,898 | 74,262,898 |
e4f29666bc586b493d15368fe60b8fd5924e62c0 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xe920024eb6639e92bacf4cc24f874c5439da76a1e285c98729c3819e034fd357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-28-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET | 74,518,069 | 74,524,754 |
18fef7f24e3bfacc028f2a7ac21e4e83b71a1c6a | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xb6bbdf3fbbac8ffebc7faf65ccf4a8ca19a3e3b1b8b920374e46c2206a180c7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-28-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET | 74,525,077 | 74,686,842 |
6b2302a0f10b0852c353431cea3d02157f592231 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x10dab0822b295f5d6bd8b464e382496abb92e526a39d98c876e1815e224791e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-28-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET | 74,526,810 | 74,526,810 |
dc9b551b89d4a136ae1acc071a8286c69db809a2 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x9f21a865ff03186d1a683b75adfc7d7b71876f7879e459df2b132493b275dd35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-july-30 | Ethereum Up or Down on July 30? | 74,585,825 | 74,585,825 |
682605aecb786a5524276257c71e27c805113a1a | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xe1889397e656f61fac235d0a6c355f738514ee3399629d2aeefff3e74e4b50ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 8AM ET | 74,667,965 | 74,667,965 |
a9d92338e487c017efb1a2674402fedaad8af5aa | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x2da4e4b9a91c3ade045aa811d1e412e01555a9e70b0d015c1361cb6a1eb3f27a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-1-9pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,691,168 |
122aad46260054ade62d4c3c77d726ecf21e1a38 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x5bd1e35d03be9682923637e51a8b8c13e161723d014d49911425a04daf63864f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,691,168 |
3b6ad93787ebb7aa5e2e87274dfdd6734cdd274f | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x5ee11d365b900eec93bf5d8f15b5bec49bf913a80669317b96a34356fea1a6f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-1-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,691,168 |
61f46aa461356a6a23cd1d403bf4ad84b12d763e | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x69974b540f91f2ad04c47a0240464cc3ba4ca78cad354c84f592644e2a046122 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,691,168 |
37c2cc6cd7e7ac69ca5f7bac18dea9a236b8aed0 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xb6a0cc258464f80061788f56a054eace3f658314660ae92d9d75f0706777cd26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-1-10pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 1, 10PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,691,168 |
7346ce3463778d8fa545524c64d4225389b07805 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x379ad6f102455d65a62e185309a6bab7aeee34de0a61109c04ab5fdbc1b2de37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-1-10pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 1, 10PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,697,814 |
9ac96084b6f942752b02a1a9eb54995fa56b4e30 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xc11d821ea8cfce755cefed2ce9444b14dfb4153b776c0ffcc2a62491a36dd593 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-1-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,697,814 |
0c3c740f9b5b0d93e35ce1254fe619b5862486ec | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x55ba00bc77284ff6367501e010350377e261293ec64e6c4118c3c5623c9acc84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-1-9pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,700,567 |
704a7ec2d9d5588d05647883ebd4c960104d416f | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xf82d2915c153dcef2313f2a268778368b72768aae28ea4c4118d53d172c24e5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 10PM ET | 74,691,168 | 74,700,567 |
87dd4ae2f471754523efedf05bd8379b9146a6e1 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x8f8754d6b703d3a1a6f51ff29aa5de8fc834808f5cd485719c17ea1a0bd03aee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-2-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 3AM ET | 74,698,946 | 74,753,445 |
94bbecae9a6330a9d063d83fa94633192d8ec819 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xc045a80b42a392ad081eb30b74c1e98d25e9adf0e632bcde0a729d861b055aa0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-2-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 3AM ET | 74,698,946 | 74,753,445 |
334bc9d223d2767d905b0159cfde356be13bb611 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x4752e58e3ad6ee067147a7ac412e79013a2152f0f347b29e802cb547356124e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8AM ET... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-2-3am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 2, 3AM ET | 74,700,266 | 74,700,266 |
48ba78cc24620ba5ff1c95338fe43f2ba321c27e | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xa23f9e5c1d4cf427b6fe336ef5031994c59406c1aafa6e9adcb008a03d346e3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-2-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - August 2, 3AM ET | 74,700,266 | 74,700,266 |
efc7de3d60ad8e9b5c4d90d33f3ac361cb06c291 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xb8b99e130b0dddc96a125b9d2243acc5aac76de03c144e0ea5e6094d12ffc407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11AM E... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-2-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 6PM ET | 74,727,196 | 74,727,196 |
66d6a87ef647cf5697816c754a333c428ab1d478 | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0xa498bf6629b63272186ea9d41c0156a4cd0ea00f1142614b09e85b7aa9000540 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 3PM ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-2-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 2, 8PM ET | 74,727,986 | 74,728,607 |
86b4bdd31f730dd249a68af80aea6339485cdc0e | 0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc | 0x6c05dcb68227012324388653797c7e0d71c5cdd9747994855abf9aa5944eadc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5PM ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-2-8pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 2, 8PM ET | 74,728,007 | 74,736,802 |
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