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0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0x0bb406db231551ff3f6155ef2d3d5aebca867329f4b135497190b40faa69620b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bdd (Gwak Bo-seong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Event: league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-12 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 0.0 3. Que...
yes
0.898305
kor-poh-jeo-2025-11-22
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2025-11-22?
79,358,166
79,654,682
ed971f9aa6c3115411f9ed3e6ba58ef9b2115525
0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0xf719ec1efeaba6f3f115198384808dacb081565f1eee01e8978fb5d03f1158bc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-12 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO (BO3) | Event: cs2-vit-tyloo-2025-11-12 | Choice: tyloo | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | ...
yes
0.962264
bun-bay-fre-2025-11-22
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22?
79,384,232
79,384,232
37f45583aad5e2afeb9b156d727e6fb82ce09624
0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0xb6f996056b89da8cd9fa6f25fe18dac1d82441e2c6dfd3ac1467365ddc9d46bf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO (BO3) | Event: cs2-vit-tyloo-2025-11-12 | Choice: tyloo | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | Event: cs2-mglz-ts7-2025-11-13 | Choice: spirit | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Disney say "DraftKings" during ear...
yes
1
ere-gro-zwo-2025-11-23
Will FC Groningen vs. PEC Zwolle end in a draw?
79,423,391
79,423,391
64e3024ce4703f89f2d8d83aaa3006b2358c7e87
0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0xdfa04cfea1725323ed508741a625e2a91a6a8638ad068835aa7c0567a5d37855
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | Event: cs2-mglz-ts7-2025-11-13 | Choice: spirit | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Disney say "NFL...
yes
1
mls-fcc-mia-2025-11-23
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-23?
79,463,185
79,463,185
5a230ac5cf32580266e70fb56abceaaea9999cee
0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0x64a70da18020ab69abdae17c484cd9f657c99a6e89c1d48b47b8e5ba8fe09f89
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Disney say...
yes
0.000066
which-turkey-will-trump-pardon-874
Will Trump pardon both turkeys?
79,489,278
79,489,278
073de42d98128d42fa75ff077bf8c136f3ae6aff
0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0x3c5d338ceb18a3cf3138789fb6347074d3238064eaa8f84a3c3f1a4e4abf6715
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Disney say "Ac...
legacy
0
cs2-lgc-red9-2025-11-25
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs RED Canids (BO1)
79,489,449
79,492,989
e99400710d379f3a6fb3b0a3a6dfed2d158a8218
0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0xd7b863813307cdf90d910592ae9c8eadd9fa6a7c935dcd0d5b551dbb20b1cd40
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Disney say ...
yes
0.448596
which-turkey-will-trump-pardon-874
Will Trump pardon Waddle?
79,517,463
79,654,679
05e0f2d9011d096f388d0d3aa52a137435607175
0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0x0c9bb7540a0e854bc59e4480e0f586dc8d830e07bf0083358173df878e3eef5d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Counter-Strike:...
yes
0.908274
which-turkey-will-trump-pardon-874
Will Trump pardon Gobble?
79,517,463
79,654,680
79ad97bcf7e65d0b415f2a6a4ee233bd88d1048b
0x1f7d0c01c2e2503e1277adcbc99bc5f4a2125769
0x484e9b6c9fea36d5fee056399526e8b153b17850340e9095225c4dcb48460e51
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call? | Event: earnings-mentions-disney-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-pssnua-pain-2025-11-14 | Choice: pain | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - M...
yes
1
bra-bra-fec-2025-11-26
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-26?
79,649,860
79,649,860
7efd422e41355e041b731bca3a19f9748df811c9
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x4bb13687c3c6258868b86001f18b3d57f44d9f990c765af0261c4eba2ff6d545
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
down
0.000016
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET
77,683,662
77,683,662
0411ecd379c3c27409fd021a24f91ab7730906df
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x4ea24118581a34be9ab9eacabfe699eda01b0aa23d5c34d9f811040df5ec1939
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 Target market: Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et Predict the user's choice and confidence f...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET
77,698,422
79,426,873
b49a705f0aaa1ef08e4a246858e78ff0baa11615
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xa44866f27ba4852f8d01a05ca8103f3193c85028762fd0aeda173f7fb70a52ac
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Quest...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-16-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3PM ET
77,769,029
77,769,029
6f3c101a93792fd897786eaf46da6eca7c9453cf
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xed136cb1b84dbf7f02ffeb961d8529ba9410eb4f0a0bf38de142e57ec1c5453b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-17-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 1AM ET
77,787,507
77,787,507
2914a1cbed0a14f18ba9f77a9a38b2c78333c6c5
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xab407e60ffb3d9cd21ace5a344886c510d28ea99a800781edc8696dad203bb83
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-17-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5AM ET
77,795,198
77,795,198
0523326723244f626060576622c9940d119ab135
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x148bb96e69e8f592326d292cf01dd955723d463fc794c06d2c3fe0531d603536
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0.0003
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-17-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 9AM ET
77,801,945
77,801,945
b23028a9d5f4d4b0300b4d255224361ecbb8629c
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x363749c3abe633aac04ae06e214e61be717a1c2aefbfd0dc5ce6f4788edb105d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0.0002
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET
78,100,797
78,100,797
cb46d9ae85c885c0f65234c1d3776bc58bd3ccbc
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x17c9ad005e723ff99f61cae9ab66bcbced2fc0e6f1c641eb85b575f6571593b1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1AM ET
78,132,379
79,426,908
94724eb7a85ec5212442389fae6086f2cd71e039
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x6e0c3669a432667125c40a1b26648da9e150b1cc626e02945040b79426540044
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0.000226
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET
78,134,405
78,134,405
65a04d3c94b72c3137d57de5ff5382eaea23d619
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x2eeea24389627fc6f5b48b30af5049a7c52645869b6ab436cebe69730ce1a88a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0.000114
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-1am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1AM ET
78,218,945
78,218,945
5b18d40e60d32a13d4e14b4f8aaad3838bf117be
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xe3bbd5fdb5be67890cda6796566f92d7f6cef2daf9b81431f9303a1f56042b48
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0.0006
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-2am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET
78,221,404
78,221,404
d753f7cec901901dbe3e2292ff5d4d9fee973415
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x79f765d65bb49cf28a12f0ab13aa68ac8f9181129dfe7f9750c386fcb4b5b82f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10AM ET
78,235,266
78,235,266
2420662d1d85bc7f2fa23ff691cfa002acea37f7
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x925e6cd081f00615237847af8fd6bf4de63701e504d19dbc12a472b680c07d8b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-28-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET
78,273,663
78,273,663
7d9df89585a0325e6e9516e01349de43fb92756f
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xe3c6c844606303454eb3185ab0bba4c18884d87c80bf6b6d8b422a3378c1dc64
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-28-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10AM ET
78,278,872
78,278,872
53b8c8a991b1e10f08a25a59a35ffaa5b858a125
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x6ea45c0b4ba9d03729f6ea5a4972f26e9070038ad00560ad6fc319ac3386db82
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-29-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4AM ET
78,310,856
78,310,856
c92c86400311c718f9705835946bdbea42d62969
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x138a7376a7ef0a990385e90e33a92f92b14fec3acebb8ec9a83b33056c6bc66f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-29-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET
78,320,106
78,339,120
7ed0c31d9d284e8a7231ca30fb20d13e9e72fcd6
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x4f6a630f5a00a9aff9ea0f03688e3ef56c2a8dc9c088814521f07d7d974e91cd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-29-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET
78,343,094
78,343,094
5ab66e2d3f3197e0b46401ca905e659be891ea04
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xaa6c3e0fb10be6cf138eeec65c55f12a1d851183af1cc110b24605c7490ef324
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-30-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10PM ET
78,387,091
78,395,410
f0d0602d07631773935caafd2cba7a0b3c75a731
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x71e137738fcacd52eedf05bc751012472376a450cd4cbade9e6714e65bf8de22
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-30-11pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11PM ET
78,389,215
79,426,901
f72887bc1c276cbb2de0de1fa5971f8b64125efb
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x259117d46908ec861a7534bfd0632e094b5612e85d0454d6ddaf0fb7068b01e3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0.0004
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3AM ET
78,395,840
78,395,840
70e1245b5dae15f057d5f766712741da90b3bacd
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x7c2518a777f81886315d778563bc6971357dd7c2675f675abeaac84ca7c77c89
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4AM ET
78,396,906
78,402,124
0275a8f8a8efc588fdeaa77683d087504fb543a7
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xb31352b7d2e30dd3700f4b89d3d72c461b438c9680444e35d4b69cc9e9049417
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10AM ET
78,408,190
78,413,051
77ef7dc715ecf9deba90f8ec214c00e3bd77fdc3
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0x20b1819fecd584f9c01b2843f0c86be651cbd3399fc72df5e0bd2e2ea18a4a39
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11AM ET
78,409,226
78,413,051
86fd73e230936e1528e3cc4a433784a808387e19
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xaa1864643823ebb5579b1d7c58b9453ee38c116a0c8b9c232014e5b13bbe3d5c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0.0002
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12PM ET
78,411,889
78,411,889
8ed592b38c3ea5a49207eade2af45560b4df4445
0x1f8942245c1675fc237ff59cd5ac2fe0b927739f
0xa0e73c3923227590b46c8d81f46df4b3d9ab37317af16a4dbf3310306940fc97
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-14-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5608003809095187e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin ...
down
0.0003
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1PM ET
78,413,414
78,413,414
f1cc95e6c900a367c42f67944147b03ebd79121f
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x1c36d1ddb38291252a0109ac487f6b841b67e40458a0072549b29a14783faae9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12?
77,625,776
77,625,776
805c6969a548b01f49cc2b46f71a70f8c929633f
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x75c1ffa92c0bf7eb88b2a459a6e7946120678f38e998be04e93958bb3eb66cdb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "co...
yes
1
fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13
Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13?
77,637,350
77,637,350
236b2ad6f6188fe10b638dc023dc6e85b6dd1c0f
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0xbb56299d0ebe4ce4516b0d1b1c4691726c13fc528cf32b6fb73e50f33701aa50
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? Event: fif-kor1-pa...
yes
1
fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14?
77,677,603
77,677,603
e42e28579f2c137847e69535e08d5ecb965d1ef6
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x2e416061b83fde7122371690dd509d21eb8122946083dfec75c60632e622c672
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
caf-rsa-rwa-2025-10-14
Will South Africa win on 2025-10-14?
77,689,379
77,689,379
7ece932353c6ba45bbdba581d3bdde197370667c
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x3bd5e87d85dbcd5413b9806d18c145c301391cb13401d7b27d6a59bb52b75770
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
efa-har7-gai-2025-10-14
Will Gainsborough Trinity FC win on 2025-10-14?
77,708,420
77,708,420
83c35ad0d5b5b11464cb41fd2b8e6a418456df68
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x55065ab2c09360e89a43e6494f0fff733220a6644595d348d813e5748539da5e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
fif-usa-aus-2025-10-14
Will United States win on 2025-10-14?
77,708,420
77,708,420
ffff352addc845757bcead62a3c1d652cb5ccfbd
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x7d13eb44f68d602b6814a5b7f749846cf9ad7b4631812a2c34ea36a0cdb2401b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
bra-mir-int-2025-10-15
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-15?
77,755,393
77,755,393
f457d747d460eccae00b83ebe61eab4f779afd66
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0xc2376d3f4d84ee4694fb2b3330a3033fb5e834cfa5bba7ab605a90ba0f1c6a22
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-15?
77,755,393
77,755,393
111550deb1a49cf22321125e4441011f61ed478e
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0xa1b8b63216293f86e7d5477cc38183c8896f34bf3589dc28375dac4b9aaa1c61
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-16?
77,813,098
77,813,098
b40674e343ade22ed9520712fce001e31b90aaf6
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x31be41e9675539280bb9c2a1e8b7f99cd75120e3c3c6c85dd156f0b6c59392bf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
arg-rac-ald-2025-10-17
Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-17?
77,842,003
77,842,003
9b9dfb41a7c5080eb0d68f71095467d220a7d2b1
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x27fa002bf1e91268fa0b4232b3d35892f15f7b6c26af17749a10ec3a8c218b53
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
bolivia-presidential-election
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
77,928,125
77,928,125
b449bc691b50faa8cec28470471ed71a6f8bfe82
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0xd705cb52a282c6c81f15d6c9eb8ab6132262e068a4d0bc33c051884bc08b7485
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
arg-rie-iac-2025-10-20
Will CD Riestra win on 2025-10-20?
77,956,331
77,956,331
86730d4a9989a2e47e659f8395f69eadd24e7ee8
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x63959ed1363cb2394dbe2758e4f1c4d3bb99444647c3477bc257e3b8ac08eed8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
arg-ind-pla-2025-10-24
Will CA Independiente win on 2025-10-24?
78,156,667
78,156,667
76b71a2b030bec64c19bc8eac0834ec52055d5bb
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x473b561753e5a80e8d3c6de1d093da4640305b76d9d11486c13b7830a84d7c9d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26?
78,205,652
78,205,652
1c55ebdbd909dc73df0bb27eab621e5301a9de96
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x162d9ebfb3a8e4925785a98c488a168787e68cf45455600e187149bb01629fe5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
bra-flu-csc-2025-10-29
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-29?
78,372,889
78,372,889
2bf4d713b1725b69c0c9e435f2b18be1b44d957f
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x5584b886e7d53a631796e189f68605df4d68798b10ce2320e9a3b79a0c2a182b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
fl1-nan-asm-2025-10-29
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-29?
78,372,889
78,372,889
62d5ddf0e6cb777a7e9e2f7578317458dd9a8b80
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x7f239d8c0ed1f6298e49fff041993eed1a07499d7a630ca38f2085996a8e5f6e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
arg-new-uni-2025-10-31
Will CA Unión win on 2025-10-31?
78,457,824
78,457,824
919dcbd76ca0041f88e36baa816c1153bd2d490f
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x185ead9822ce7a1b2dfd2c4102d601ed38b7d97ef465193a625f3a7ef000e499
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
bra-cru-vit-2025-11-01
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-01?
78,468,649
78,468,649
5e76d88867f805c8ab9293a99dda88c281f4aec3
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x028b4e739e10901bb3b4f0eb07683c4511b38cd20c42a66648c6756438874718
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
fl1-aja-olm-2025-11-01
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-01?
78,490,324
78,490,324
bc8cc6c7c1257d1c29159725c1ce15b3038b00fb
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01?
78,490,324
78,490,324
a623da6a135e4683d0b3c9991ff440cc57384433
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x3e51773c78b59cd5fda8ac0ff497ff00d12c88a35af811f2aa71fe8569d16014
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
arg-vel-tal-2025-11-01
Will CA Talleres win on 2025-11-01?
78,490,324
78,490,324
651b8edd82b108d06408f30db9060368ed1c7221
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x7313ef7f8ee13603355872b5e985d614c5aa0c2a00d201aeb24a121bb35b7d7b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
lal-rea-val-2025-11-01
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01?
78,490,324
78,490,324
2cdd5e8d8caa0b4eeab5040269096f915d28e3ca
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0xc32b7f21c709209e9b2f57045ab374cd1e58540ceafeb652bf2fe433d626b1e4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
bra-fla-rec-2025-11-01
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01?
78,490,324
78,490,324
792873a36cb2dd044d9e7eb1c62fecccf46a2fbc
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x30e2c42bd88554e87be74d98c951ca10a21344c067e35cc0a0e3a1cd78a5a528
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
ere-utr-nec-2025-11-02
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-02?
78,506,854
78,506,854
a4e542cfa908678f1f1228b68cb681703a7acb7d
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0xde6fcefd9a8cad8fd99ed020b38d51e84d6523147fcbeaf59b1490bacfa98fb3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02?
78,506,854
78,506,854
c71ce673c5f711f205d04689064b3d4ce06375c6
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x0c310c0dd164e77c068f2a5ea99b48b2cf7570aea31965ce0bad2029efea1457
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?
78,508,714
78,508,714
e6f150f1b18b3b35be02ad0e23685c69913b262f
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x617458741c0a2f568b12b3d72a98d96827ed4330773bac45fc891aa9886c597d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02?
78,535,412
78,535,412
efe46a5ef545893a12f48da4e132aa69a2ca371e
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x75b00641afb54f05220333423d6f70be3fee7b73e27bc078492ebdb8bc792fdd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
bra-juv-pal-2025-11-02
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-02?
78,535,412
78,535,412
8fbd600a8abc46c382a4b4891ef5a947339f4370
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0x8eef15dd7b486efb49ba10a8448428be920a3d72b9bcaaeb58d7dce871b69fed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
por-por-scb-2025-11-02
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-02?
78,535,412
78,535,412
9b70853c57a0591d6117df9c975a8ba512413296
0x1fb4ee7aebcf2bfdc0f99774f6a64977e4f05206
0xd37e698858516255b142ad26500ce73497f9db41f223c5a2e756be36412ba570
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | Event: arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-1...
yes
1
sea-mil-rom-2025-11-02
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-02?
78,535,412
78,535,412
f57f69ead10cf25fc2e3ef315597ec2817361653
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x80b5a3354c824ce18c9731fb3999aa4ddc48d2bc7fc0afa2da253e8c8939015c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET
74,227,811
74,227,811
4a95a454d1ad19eea7814434b16841f13a24dedb
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xf95d35ff9011dc99d4578c8dc6db5d0931e79c811d9d888b34310b53726de996
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output ...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET
74,227,811
74,227,811
e9013d15b0bac84e5c7eed35707860a37035a84b
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x12a2c0a9d95656b6e90ed196054a340e87a29dc64ecffcbb8ff78114607a7cbd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Ju...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-7am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET
74,228,851
74,229,610
03797d3c61577c9bf2f4fd2623820b86fb9a0391
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x599aa88f8de1d0c5154a1366ba344bc184e8bfde4ba2aaa4a92f2ca1bbc665c6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8AM ET
74,229,610
74,232,139
be73b3b533129ec10f193e22dff4e77bbb7f739c
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x3e47f0431468b1c8375c64abad3dd5739da033591c54e0336f88829db3c5cc93
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-9am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET
74,232,436
74,232,914
5e6a86a25d121912ee8bf3fa6e2bad9d4a4d71ae
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x91ddf86e42f0350e688228a132647f6a804aa7147e52155b094989f62376fc7d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-11am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11AM ET
74,237,917
74,238,843
ab3a656b28e0a21ae2a436bcd10746d246876000
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x470933e0490c4e686da7ca9f9987aedb1983a545cd35032cced65e618d6d4e32
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-3pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 3PM ET
74,242,912
74,244,953
618f9d69f8c3fbb2667b3aa6e5539d6bcdd24beb
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xf26cb01558fc8cc24df101fc070f784ed84ffee695ca4e0a818c6e4633c7b37f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5PM ET
74,247,894
74,248,085
246ef1928c7f07d2a121daeb96c0f49215bc8e7b
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x7d44fe3d3c604607a1154046d8603536453021966f1592fe88744ecbd1845e57
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-9pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9PM ET
74,251,853
74,252,466
52c3c19dc7fa819c25a3f70a4fd462f9fd6e65cb
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x73a6552945e96e4e38ab41528c89cd3bf5def3eb40837d547fb62db913d978a0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8PM ET
74,251,853
74,257,765
71eb614acf654eb11891b02e116d7cf52e354ffa
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xa9df8cb57998f678946e75aceb5bb88b6eeb7e6e0f57e6f5833648449548c02b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-7pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7PM ET
74,251,853
74,686,839
a9b18d53790cb4cc1d0be959f236f805a11a0ea1
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x0ae3b615abcc56272372a1c27b649ea5aaeec07d2758c305d0f3dfaee9d7feee
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-11pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11PM ET
74,257,805
74,257,805
e6901c0f9da37fa994083920ac8c5244628d0dae
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x7f3a55aed1c28c3c8c9ce01b9783ab75caa960cfd763779440b667919462ae6e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-22-12am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 12AM ET
74,257,805
74,257,805
55ee4dc0d479c6b6c78572630df214f85a1fe64c
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xc2123a914a3647ec40184b2f2d93905317cb76736672402328b42e6b6dad2064
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-22-2am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 2AM ET
74,260,979
74,261,442
fde69217f53ecef91f25f15beb5b501d900de3ff
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x30887cb283419aa5966b37106f820c41a45bc8c35fa69fc48667ba0b064104dc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-22-3am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 3AM ET
74,262,898
74,262,898
e4f29666bc586b493d15368fe60b8fd5924e62c0
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xe920024eb6639e92bacf4cc24f874c5439da76a1e285c98729c3819e034fd357
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-28-11am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET
74,518,069
74,524,754
18fef7f24e3bfacc028f2a7ac21e4e83b71a1c6a
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xb6bbdf3fbbac8ffebc7faf65ccf4a8ca19a3e3b1b8b920374e46c2206a180c7c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-28-3pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET
74,525,077
74,686,842
6b2302a0f10b0852c353431cea3d02157f592231
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x10dab0822b295f5d6bd8b464e382496abb92e526a39d98c876e1815e224791e0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-28-4pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET
74,526,810
74,526,810
dc9b551b89d4a136ae1acc071a8286c69db809a2
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x9f21a865ff03186d1a683b75adfc7d7b71876f7879e459df2b132493b275dd35
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-on-july-30
Ethereum Up or Down on July 30?
74,585,825
74,585,825
682605aecb786a5524276257c71e27c805113a1a
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xe1889397e656f61fac235d0a6c355f738514ee3399629d2aeefff3e74e4b50ce
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-8am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 8AM ET
74,667,965
74,667,965
a9d92338e487c017efb1a2674402fedaad8af5aa
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x2da4e4b9a91c3ade045aa811d1e412e01555a9e70b0d015c1361cb6a1eb3f27a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-august-1-9pm-et
XRP Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET
74,691,168
74,691,168
122aad46260054ade62d4c3c77d726ecf21e1a38
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x5bd1e35d03be9682923637e51a8b8c13e161723d014d49911425a04daf63864f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-9pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET
74,691,168
74,691,168
3b6ad93787ebb7aa5e2e87274dfdd6734cdd274f
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x5ee11d365b900eec93bf5d8f15b5bec49bf913a80669317b96a34356fea1a6f2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-august-1-8pm-et
XRP Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET
74,691,168
74,691,168
61f46aa461356a6a23cd1d403bf4ad84b12d763e
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x69974b540f91f2ad04c47a0240464cc3ba4ca78cad354c84f592644e2a046122
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-8pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET
74,691,168
74,691,168
37c2cc6cd7e7ac69ca5f7bac18dea9a236b8aed0
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xb6a0cc258464f80061788f56a054eace3f658314660ae92d9d75f0706777cd26
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-august-1-10pm-et
Solana Up or Down - August 1, 10PM ET
74,691,168
74,691,168
7346ce3463778d8fa545524c64d4225389b07805
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x379ad6f102455d65a62e185309a6bab7aeee34de0a61109c04ab5fdbc1b2de37
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-august-1-10pm-et
XRP Up or Down - August 1, 10PM ET
74,691,168
74,697,814
9ac96084b6f942752b02a1a9eb54995fa56b4e30
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xc11d821ea8cfce755cefed2ce9444b14dfb4153b776c0ffcc2a62491a36dd593
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-august-1-10pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10PM ET
74,691,168
74,697,814
0c3c740f9b5b0d93e35ce1254fe619b5862486ec
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x55ba00bc77284ff6367501e010350377e261293ec64e6c4118c3c5623c9acc84
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-august-1-9pm-et
Solana Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET
74,691,168
74,700,567
704a7ec2d9d5588d05647883ebd4c960104d416f
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xf82d2915c153dcef2313f2a268778368b72768aae28ea4c4118d53d172c24e5f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-10pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 10PM ET
74,691,168
74,700,567
87dd4ae2f471754523efedf05bd8379b9146a6e1
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x8f8754d6b703d3a1a6f51ff29aa5de8fc834808f5cd485719c17ea1a0bd03aee
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-august-2-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 3AM ET
74,698,946
74,753,445
94bbecae9a6330a9d063d83fa94633192d8ec819
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xc045a80b42a392ad081eb30b74c1e98d25e9adf0e632bcde0a729d861b055aa0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-august-2-3am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 3AM ET
74,698,946
74,753,445
334bc9d223d2767d905b0159cfde356be13bb611
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x4752e58e3ad6ee067147a7ac412e79013a2152f0f347b29e802cb547356124e9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8AM ET...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-august-2-3am-et
Solana Up or Down - August 2, 3AM ET
74,700,266
74,700,266
48ba78cc24620ba5ff1c95338fe43f2ba321c27e
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xa23f9e5c1d4cf427b6fe336ef5031994c59406c1aafa6e9adcb008a03d346e3a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-august-2-3am-et
XRP Up or Down - August 2, 3AM ET
74,700,266
74,700,266
efc7de3d60ad8e9b5c4d90d33f3ac361cb06c291
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xb8b99e130b0dddc96a125b9d2243acc5aac76de03c144e0ea5e6094d12ffc407
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11AM E...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-august-2-6pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 6PM ET
74,727,196
74,727,196
66d6a87ef647cf5697816c754a333c428ab1d478
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0xa498bf6629b63272186ea9d41c0156a4cd0ea00f1142614b09e85b7aa9000540
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 3PM ...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-august-2-8pm-et
XRP Up or Down - August 2, 8PM ET
74,727,986
74,728,607
86b4bdd31f730dd249a68af80aea6339485cdc0e
0x1fc35691b5b97e88cd8453965f8d6096a8c26cfc
0x6c05dcb68227012324388653797c7e0d71c5cdd9747994855abf9aa5944eadc3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-21-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5PM ...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-august-2-8pm-et
Solana Up or Down - August 2, 8PM ET
74,728,007
74,736,802