sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6f3751ef9f748c0f3671aef14f80f8619a971ac7 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x6d69168fc7c0c3e94022bbd72d96d36628c16cb277a21ed8d41d155728b0a024 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-bodo-glimt-vs-porto | Will Bodo Glimt beat Porto? | 62,279,300 | 62,279,300 |
53975b1ad90c3b40fcdd8cb34ccfd7eeff70b496 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xd564df2eb04e0d3af1d529edad01075d77aad9cdad1846b8e7e8021fe98a671c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-nice-vs-real-sociedad | Will Nice beat Real Sociedad? | 62,279,300 | 62,279,300 |
473a4082d929f2521f7466a8d97b6844623611f5 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xd5d7c52666d3ee4f20cf8c11bd21a24af8b4e9ddf04423602e23ec395ae366c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Will Dynamo Kiev beat Lazio? | 62,279,300 | 62,279,300 |
07f8df81065d83c8a5303f5033b25bd016e909cd | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x013186af289a5d7f1c31803be7b901ce71b9d8d744b61dc36a2eebfe1a5f9cdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-union-saint-gilloise | Will the match between Fenerbahce vs. Union Saint-Gilloise end in a draw? | 62,347,796 | 62,347,796 |
03b4c6f11d1b74d4a23d3c20223e5434c041e01e | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x0bea485004e12b1e657038fd8f0244c444381687b12d76079c184122b8f52432 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Will Viktoria Plzen beat Frankfurt? | 62,347,796 | 62,347,796 |
0fc30986587dd1c49a79b2c98ad780096dafef02 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x5092ec21a07aeb50496875376374e333e291039cddebdb685b99dd088e47eba0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-roma-vs-athletic-bilbao | Will Roma beat Athletic Bilbao? | 62,347,796 | 62,347,796 |
be899822350d437f2da34fc2124737f1c20d6dcd | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x6ea7d8068480299ef8bf631ebd2046b3df62726ec5a8d66dec8fa4496290263c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-braga-vs-maccabi-tlv | Will Braga beat Maccabi TLV? | 62,347,796 | 62,347,796 |
46fc78fbc0a5f9cd4136a46753fd97e7fd2bacd8 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x91c73fbb610eff525ab760c3e1d4625d07fd3dcecfd03b1fcf75aa7dd1966c69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-malmo-vs-rangers | Will Malmo beat Rangers? | 62,347,796 | 62,347,796 |
11b287c502f0f142e16899a8440fcc8e0916d249 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xc20c8c1d510f9c4e5b2470c494bd96bb1afe7a92ae20afdd140d58df217e6c78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-union-saint-gilloise | Will Union Saint-Gilloise beat Fenerbahce? | 62,347,796 | 62,347,796 |
9327a9b91620229a1f8c3ea090409d83947608e4 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xfa47dd107e2882a2d0161424e1a56d883e66b7ff23da2d580c4c26421b9a8e69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-lyon-vs-olympiacos | Will Olympiacos beat Lyon? | 62,347,796 | 62,347,796 |
3df3e40ef8fdd5f4329f49ef07f8ff31d20727f4 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xb66c499a514f512bfc329141858fe2bd2ba607e340973112e45c8a8371cfcb14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat West Ham? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolverhampton beat Newcastle? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | epl-arsenal-vs-leicester-city | Will Arsenal vs. Leicester City end in a draw? | 62,418,176 | 62,418,176 |
7d6ae9733b7f29545a1f37c027c3d20c9fe5816e | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x6abba784a9e355262e117b09d5d2127f93bacfb0c45db3e7b142f67926044243 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat West Ham? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolverhampton beat Newcastle? | Event: epl-wolverhampton-vs-newcastle | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: epl-tottenham-v... | yes | 1 | epl-wolves-vs-liverpool | Will Wolves beat Liverpool? | 62,418,181 | 62,418,181 |
7fe11b99ef6371fd30ff90d03e96dac24efe0238 | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0xcf34a00834f97996828accbc165ea7e94bde2feab5ef883695b3faef8d460344 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolverhampton beat Newcastle? | Event: epl-wolverhampton-vs-newcastle | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: epl-tottenham-vs-arsenal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ac-milan-... | yes | 1 | bundesliga-bayern-munich-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Will Bayern Munich beat Bayer Leverkusen? | 62,418,181 | 62,418,181 |
8487c3fbc8c90d543a1e3376f82642c5515c1afc | 0x0328c5fecd66fb52898079bd152e921f831dd834 | 0x034c9d5149eca9faec85f29b37571c88978f106815ea3fb29bc3df75fa71d0b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | Event: epl-tottenham-vs-arsenal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ac-milan-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Girona? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-giro... | yes | 1 | epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Will Manchester United beat Tottenham? | 62,478,337 | 62,478,337 |
d4c576b1231710019279e778ed9e60d4709a74c9 | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x04b075e2bad427e61826f2684cad33518d6ddb8df2bf544a4179af14359f6729 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | 77,580,711 | 77,580,711 |
ad932cb609b06a557e5c88ac0ef73a26b505028e | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x4306c8d7633f5248e30642f735ff5769ab54fa71960a19da73cb63ccd248f4d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10?
Event: solana-price-on-october-10
Predict the user's choice... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | 77,580,711 | 77,580,711 |
b41ead169142e81565d39683738cb6e7abc15a7a | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x45bd40871b9c76a2cf7f4d615ab3eaf173ba9a4dfd78655acc10068806eaf9fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Targe... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of XRP be less than $2.60 on October 10? | 77,580,711 | 77,580,711 |
d9e8297e63e33712012e2f75ac23330ceb910ced | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x747802e40431f93578bc1629b718af8944c92a3e490d997254fdf0081298c71e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on October 10? | 77,580,711 | 77,580,711 |
ce813f7b2cf17c4e1c97d9454db17843ab47ee6f | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x7f811b8754287e3b7046f39aaec8cab69cb726f46a8105ff08e156893907ce30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.10 and $3.20 on October 10? | 77,580,711 | 77,580,711 |
d67f64be2c5cf229b320120542703e75a67b155d | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x0d49b79e0874b9347098f5c25d6f23082991e3e19ba6c2edef745400caac2de1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-12 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.10 and $3.20 on October 12? | 77,663,493 | 77,663,493 |
0fd64953ecb9c9dc745740d2f7f300f9529d9ebc | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x571d94f605bc51383dff2a3992b085fc990e7bc883771505d880184185b9fd11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-12 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on October 12? | 77,663,493 | 77,663,493 |
aa7c98af076157636585fe9862bf82d7cfc30a4f | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x748db6823ece1587e97b1aca8951ae7ee7859faf57d63d4651716f8b9bfa7242 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-12 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.40 and $3.50 on October 12? | 77,663,493 | 77,663,493 |
879eec9931e9ac03a9abe093247259153ab3c285 | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x8ff84f2ced5ede2d9516789357bef6243ee3e5598b079d5356f731739ba76e43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-12 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.20 and $3.30 on October 12? | 77,663,493 | 77,663,493 |
b5a009a7eceec7fdf18ba97a07e6efeace4b1079 | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x5600854638425fae1a6fe4b1f1c3cb818d525e714dc291f629f42f925609f670 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-12 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on October 12? | 77,663,494 | 77,663,494 |
a665d566effacb36d61dc38a9f5e3414c6f5c924 | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x431cbbb464cf8cf77acaad7414e8f6a9f9d97c2ca3fa149f15f92cb8c01d9fcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $124,000 and $126,000 on October 14? | 77,747,715 | 77,747,715 |
fc40bfbedbcf325e7d49c310c7108751a613c8b7 | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x6224c75c961c327dd65f0d06af538e06d5b377cb58257b98be45ba977a600a29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 14? | 77,747,715 | 77,747,715 |
a84e8303ff7a4c9e1f2fb2e16ec4e62770454ddf | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0xb4004bdcb99df239c4958330e0108365a99270cbd648d1db879b28a781b52384 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 14? | 77,747,715 | 77,747,715 |
6e7335af5753d30a6445891a78bd0bed6fc8c2e3 | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0xc95d1ad7302182e61eced3582ed48cbd72ab60da2d1ba0b7c903395ec9fa44e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.20 and $3.30 on October 14? | 77,747,715 | 77,747,715 |
22bf871b1a0c6396bbd0340b38d72dd6858895ee | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x8fe2c30f065ddede1431cf6840ebc4a1e747b3f3bfc7c79f963238408f44deac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.10 and $3.20 on October 14? | 77,747,716 | 77,747,716 |
60190a13b713f6dc64de7bc834ed5efbd3d7bcf9 | 0x032b6e76538c243acb9a4691cbb18a74c7556064 | 0x11fe030a82c0e90575b79a48dc30b37170ccabbaf86514f6a11fedf698cc9c6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 10? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 10? | Event: solana-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 17? | 77,878,993 | 77,878,993 |
2d18cffe7e2e8ca19ec29403dde7224e6a0c95bd | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x0040d53c15888638cbca0aa48be7dee84a17a3aeee73a8c0f4afc35ab18384f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?
Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.171654 | will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | 30,374,588 | 31,695,155 |
1f2a7af850940c8e08d2d6c03413b7657e152708 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x56f97fe01ad5ef05158fe92c2497a729f5e1f1b8d34381c142699e1b6a6d5e5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
Target market:
Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August?
Event: wil... | no | 1 | will-boris-johnson-remain-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-through-august | Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | 30,420,080 | 32,638,758 |
175b42a13314044581872743e32c05a6046bfcdd | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xcd24abeb6b4c6636e979f83ed402c7d3ad50243da8476b89bc77d71d6c77024b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | yes | 0.999313 | 2022-wimbledon | 2022 Wimbledon Championships: Will Novak Djokovic win Men's Singles? | 30,453,561 | 30,575,994 |
2d9cbe7e56b392c26cb68bcb3b3a31e33628d419 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xfa13ad21220a4ba1f1dcd3f3dfd3be41f2cb07209fa64c03405f6b1d685338ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 1 | will-celsius-announce-bankruptcy-by-july-13-2022 | Will Celsius announce bankruptcy by July 13? | 30,715,148 | 30,715,148 |
51df64a8f4c11b0f2dfe9489ff86a22c1f5bb8d7 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xfadb7a7d78152eed30b09c5e1696044cef5ae9dcc2b5a1430a261a0d765f1e27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | who-will-replace-boris-johnson | Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Conservative Party Leader? | 31,234,316 | 39,037,700 |
9261da921feee17a057a292a6a5b36a56a585b14 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xb9ba5452e141e2ca056cc1e909d704273eba37dcde4eb70ae86f20a902eb3bef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | fed-interest-rates-september-2022 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 75 bps after their September meeting? | 31,768,113 | 39,037,643 |
8bdf7d166a008c0842eddb0b1e782948c37e6553 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xc9ee924d7020612267b79023b1e051f4ef01455758b8d2dd21d06417c4d90c34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | spacex-starship-launch-2022 | Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by December 31, 2022? | 32,388,061 | 37,632,887 |
8b9f6a3f9904e72669cf67a62f6ffae539284dba | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xb84d2baafce432260abc27dc328df095c1dcbf95de5f5ef726fcb7fa254d0e4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | will-hikaru-nakamura-win-the-2022-saint-louis-rapid-blitz | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2022 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz? | 32,461,931 | 32,461,931 |
04f7dbc3108df280930be6373b3fc628b4f33fdd | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x2421a9206bb8fadc06ba8ab0b6a91e0eefd3418fd6d1ab44661c5714c95ca11b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | yes | 1 | will-sarah-palin-win-in-the-alaskan-special-election-for-the-us-house | Will Sarah Palin win Alaska's special election for the U.S. House? | 32,638,758 | 32,638,758 |
bff570b8adf5047955f1638efcfe2b6d78405553 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x513fd1306900bc297ec36645e1552922eeea85955fb9b41563059a1217fd9d82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | democrat | 0 | 2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-dem-or-rep-win-this-state | Senate: Will a Democrat (Barnes) or Republican (Johnson) win in Wisconsin? | 33,179,669 | 34,638,374 |
5b79e9ba7730a1eb1bc9e338525e141a94f9964b | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x67b5bc7eac103e8b49a6eb70eb2f9564abeddff6ab15adf614a9461c1d661188 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | patriots | 1 | nfl-week-7 | NFL Monday: Bears vs. Patriots | 34,791,038 | 34,791,038 |
be0b02f47980f255d25603e7032c2628635b03ef | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xb7f8f6cd9fe1f55135abb1fed78297cb19ccfb2a4f5f1e796605e5efd5137ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 1 | will-liz-truss-remain-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-through-2022 | Will Liz Truss remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through 2022? | 34,906,404 | 34,906,404 |
4cdf830cc5699e6f4bcc5fa961c674f960d7fff7 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x13b7464439a66d27413a9fa6387dc6f3ba6a69a06ed7237086be004305079494 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 1 | will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-lower-48-us-states-in-october | Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states in October? | 35,067,874 | 35,067,874 |
8521bb1d191a3c0a98805d1514a8173be949be9d | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xd85f1b6d62793f09de5af96ea2680dd765798cf6f0b6e3e13270237c0bdfa04d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | balance-of-power-2022-us-midterms | Republican House and Republican Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms? | 35,378,953 | 39,037,634 |
344f80b79dbed47de323caf261b16264a85237f8 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xe0658c4beed2102c181b3987edff5edd578ad2952a6eb5fa8018925e5d7a48fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | democratic | 0 | which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election | Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | 35,380,109 | 35,640,075 |
68b6137d59d244b578216feb3cc2fbb0a88e4004 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x4a16d1ba77d5fca8022ebd3f5d22486ca03f17fd0039664c56e21de973375156 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | democrat | 0 | 2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-dem-or-rep-win-this-state | Senate: Will a Democrat (Masto) or Republican (Laxalt) win in Nevada? | 35,380,702 | 35,640,075 |
bd5fcb42bf4b1b42cbf9a4168495a8b9b7fb1d86 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xc27fc10fe7d24c1fb22607a15b90f26c116dd08a2e96ef7becdad894cfd9ee89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022 | Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022? | 35,774,178 | 37,632,887 |
77d7d071dc4f82bea9298cca9f67a55d17ea6481 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x612bd06b847f6eb7d02b84fb61bdcf8ebb85d282833a754ef151609c27b39ba3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | world-cup-matches | World Cup: Friday - Will Netherlands beat Ecuador? | 36,056,683 | 36,100,018 |
c3638eb594cb547717d5d5395de6c0e9ed45e6de | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x9e134e2fd684f1994f9114789bdf97d0fd22c4695cb3cea6cf2f16e5be811b8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | yes | 1 | world-cup-2022-group-stage | Will Spain qualify from Group E? | 36,100,347 | 36,100,347 |
77f4d61dc23412c406e8d6b6bfd0cd66323040b1 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x30772707330ef2b7cd59b74b61fd76765b407ec8891279199ff597a500527736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | world-cup-2022-group-stage | Will Ghana qualify from Group H? | 36,174,161 | 39,037,643 |
be4a9acc708b4b4fbcd7a5ba8bdfb6d3f3ed5ed7 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x93be4ea8a93f56dc8fcb16a2dc12cff8d8439051dea1d1b5a1120031ad067719 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | world-cup-matches | World Cup: Saturday - Will Netherlands beat USA? | 36,349,326 | 39,037,652 |
93f41e860a0c180b97201f1966ac802a9f33b31c | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xdb8de0428bf3c7726baea7de0dd5a44aaa06ab524130f121069873dca57bac17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | world-cup-matches | World Cup: Sunday - Will England beat Senegal? | 36,425,157 | 36,425,157 |
c472ae5f09dee24efb1a9173b0a3b16fe939fc19 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x9bfe8d0b3c7f0fe0a7008edc237d15c951c49722ed60e9d8158a86d53781e944 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | which-country-will-win-the-2022-world-cup | Will Brazil win the 2022 World Cup? | 36,466,732 | 36,466,732 |
09dfacd92cb0769f28d47ec7c748b191c2fd813e | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x3990f55503d1f1b9c94153327210b8b8eec101006c47a0c1f754af80d813f128 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | which-country-will-win-the-2022-world-cup | Will Argentina win the 2022 World Cup? | 36,715,011 | 36,715,011 |
06e53d4b876eb52bf7060b99b2a8fc6493653344 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x34e3ecdd6ee91688b348660ded7ad0300c1a5b29eb8da2e3ad367f9e2b978e87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | patriots | 1 | nfl-thursday-bills-vs-patriots | NFL Thursday: Bills vs. Patriots | 39,037,643 | 39,037,643 |
4c9148736dc79eaa441df621232bd0365b101920 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x72074e3d16a787b756309f02ea6c3352e9880653f4acc07ee045c3faeba67821 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | democrat | 1 | 2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-dem-or-rep-win-this-state | Senate: Will a Democrat (Warnock) or Republican (Walker) win in Georgia? | 39,037,663 | 39,037,663 |
d7b8965499527c9a77631a24f0934e034617143b | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x73eb7c2b396f90ad1371823afff3561bfa9d6b108fef320a7e39aa4c2ba6fa8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 1 | world-cup-2022-group-stage | Will Costa Rica qualify from Group E? | 39,037,663 | 39,037,663 |
7f743435041aa862d70e0398fa8127fd45031854 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xbe841053fcf927ab94e5932a8f33b0a24f64ace70d953b24009984efcd61d238 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 0 | when-will-the-next-speaker-be-elected-by | Will the next speaker be elected by Oct 15? | 48,599,474 | 48,599,474 |
f63b1aac37f5317db17b3713eb8fa117149a546a | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x664886144f47a74f32ec1e030345d25b3865ecd0c39427dac77490e2cbe196c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | yes | 1 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,397,265 | 52,397,265 |
9f12900865f2e20aae5426145db71e287926a182 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x079fd5cd4c762657700526c9c8066445c71be8277ff4978662905dcb3b9fda58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | no | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | 53,434,411 | 53,434,411 |
20f336e3448aa5a5fc03a702a2c1084f35f48e30 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x4774bdc661b14290b537019240c9d1c3b859126fe4e159636b8f461e0dcf78e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15? | Event: will-the-us-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17165358781981832
2. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-joh... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | 54,221,274 | 54,221,274 |
ef8160549e7472f93aa8b621a8f118ab340bf8b2 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xe6137f8637c8a9595dfec6e1f0133d3ab941846d7e80d3d33e5387f57bb5a37c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | Event: will-boris-johnson-remain-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-through-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2022 Wimbledon Championships: Will Novak Djokovic win Men's Singles? | Event: 2022-... | yes | 1 | south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | 54,221,274 | 54,221,274 |
67c7129bae9999dfe3f755fbe1be9ed2f0d23054 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x3c89bca9ceb8cc7011b5e908d73a8fd477e8adcb16089d7de5c8d3809a28a2cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2022 Wimbledon Championships: Will Novak Djokovic win Men's Singles? | Event: 2022-wimbledon | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9993126171175652
2. Question: Will Celsius announce bankruptcy by July 13? | Event: will-celsius-announce-bankruptcy-by-july-13-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Will Virginia be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | 54,358,529 | 54,358,529 |
37cdcc6917d2f742597bd2f6645c09883b1e7e19 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x0ff615bc149399562ff6f02a80180b5d2fa58a4b6c681af549e60b57549bbe78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celsius announce bankruptcy by July 13? | Event: will-celsius-announce-bankruptcy-by-july-13-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Conservative Party Leader? | Event: who-will-replace-boris-johnson | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | super-tuesday-state-with-highest-trump-margin-of-victory | Will Tennessee have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries? | 54,547,886 | 54,547,886 |
74165c2550b282731de1228e362fdd38f2085f06 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x33ad8fe940ad79febf41181020a5bbfee9ffb632b28f6412035798fb4fe00198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Conservative Party Leader? | Event: who-will-replace-boris-johnson | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 75 bps after their September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | 54,547,886 | 54,547,886 |
4f79fc85cded203fa12e9e7de554a81cad07a178 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x4f0cad7e5504080b120caed8b52c8f5ba113f68fd5c27b060f126b5f0ee73500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 75 bps after their September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by December 31, 2022? | Event: spacex-starship-launch-2022 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | 54,547,886 | 54,547,886 |
7311699e721c5d12324846de4bc405bdb44af84f | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x7557c61521f4837dfc35e4f28e633d1b44246795097345dca3a39a48740181cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by December 31, 2022? | Event: spacex-starship-launch-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2022 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz? | Event: will-hikaru-nakamura-win-the-2022-saint-louis-rapid-blitz | Choice... | yes | 1 | super-tuesday-state-with-highest-trump-margin-of-victory | Will Alaska have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries? | 54,547,886 | 54,547,886 |
4c7179fa2fb986d7a5e1599a94d5fc0751c5e06e | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x8cc1eabe78fd1bb60fc7b324f25b67351145be8b6413595592afdde15aa6ae35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2022 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz? | Event: will-hikaru-nakamura-win-the-2022-saint-louis-rapid-blitz | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Sarah Palin win Alaska's special election for the U.S. House? | Event: will-sarah-palin-win-in-the-alaskan-special-e... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain more than 353k jobs in February? | 54,547,886 | 54,547,886 |
63e723efeb18f31aea53e6f2ee45ecadae92f7e1 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xb0ced8080b1831d2eecf7bc4c175275a1c7c4c5a415d77c7b9613e4b76564401 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sarah Palin win Alaska's special election for the U.S. House? | Event: will-sarah-palin-win-in-the-alaskan-special-election-for-the-us-house | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Senate: Will a Democrat (Barnes) or Republican (Johnson) win in Wisconsin? | Event: 2022-us-senate-ele... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | 54,547,886 | 54,547,886 |
8ac64d7bd702d918a78270595877a435361afab5 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xd449a3ec46769ad33bd1154d97dc7d6bba2709e36189da608510de01e68a0a3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Senate: Will a Democrat (Barnes) or Republican (Johnson) win in Wisconsin? | Event: 2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-dem-or-rep-win-this-state | Choice: democrat | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: NFL Monday: Bears vs. Patriots | Event: nfl-week-7 | Choice: patriots | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 0.995868 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? | 54,547,886 | 54,547,886 |
6554dbf1c11e5d641b704ad7afbcd69dbb261abd | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xe08a8b0342600067f62c58d1fde4fd794c1b5c7cbd2fada16f16ddb1ba6efa6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Monday: Bears vs. Patriots | Event: nfl-week-7 | Choice: patriots | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liz Truss remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through 2022? | Event: will-liz-truss-remain-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-through-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Will Colorado be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | 54,547,886 | 54,547,886 |
c8c1cb0a2ab09a65a7a9c01599d66a7d51e1c84a | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x70ee5e1d18a794f36d3c50b7215bd203e00f702d71fa0f0014466f98afe35a09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liz Truss remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through 2022? | Event: will-liz-truss-remain-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-through-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states in October? | Event: will-a-hurrican... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its 2024 March meeting? | 54,930,816 | 54,930,816 |
cdc81f698e2c6902c11e4e9f9ef20c52e9806298 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0x789f7487df2ef41e24d5eef3104cb5fdaa47561efaf2773ad155087170c89582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states in October? | Event: will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-lower-48-us-states-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Republican House and Republican Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms? | Event: balance-of-power-2022-us-mi... | yes | 1 | reddit-ipo-valuation-first-day-of-trading | No Reddit IPO in 2024 | 54,930,816 | 54,930,816 |
daabe4603f89ca4680918ca0554b37ece7ad879f | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xa7df289d626b5acfd8334a75990f91c9a0763d2d14c2d192e9f7d6467c873614 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Republican House and Republican Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms? | Event: balance-of-power-2022-us-midterms | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Event: which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election | C... | yes | 1 | reddit-ipo-valuation-first-day-of-trading | Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation? | 54,930,816 | 54,930,816 |
1d86168fba91e48a6f71e61d7b0ca57d7a96e429 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xd4a957e7b51fc2e74c4f1909583972011772eda01aada975251aeaffbbc73f56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? | Event: which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election | Choice: democratic | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Senate: Will a Democrat (Masto) or Republican (Laxalt) win in Nevada? | Event: 2022-us-senate-elections... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after its March 2024 meeting? | 54,930,816 | 54,930,816 |
5708daceb49ca909d1ec61cf61791588886fada9 | 0x0364e487ccd5a61d3c83848a420846848ae08061 | 0xdf3b361f2617570e0abc10ece5e350a979c5e1e58ad5a2b5147e023ade4d9311 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Senate: Will a Democrat (Masto) or Republican (Laxalt) win in Nevada? | Event: 2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-dem-or-rep-win-this-state | Choice: democrat | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022? | Event: will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | Will the Fed raise interest rates by 25+ bps after its 2024 March meeting? | 54,930,816 | 54,930,816 |
e3da6e80c679fb6dd7a63275609e9c52f5cf1501 | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x888bdbc131c68d6a4e5e07b9286207367221bdbbf946e9d9ed1016ed3ec14414 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3?
Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | 78,578,633 | 78,578,633 |
6e93cda4a424b4f2837f8fddc35d7fc80f225674 | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0xfbfe58a3d81a8e182a76652267604f3ba2dcc3c0e0aa0a1fc88c89a9fa212178 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3?
Event: xrp-price-on-november-3
Predict the user's choice and c... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-3 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | 78,578,633 | 78,578,633 |
402949027e823ecc9b534961769e8353507fa2d0 | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x06cc70f589f779598d0bf9cad0a17ed5f726dddeb8ff554f41d5356a06f94fac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target mark... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-7 | Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on November 7? | 78,891,212 | 78,891,212 |
9523552fdc6b427f4b8fdc69229fd8f0e018bec2 | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x474532d777ef1a89f190aa888834649108e027c2a882dd2d809f3517289b7f0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-7 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 7? | 78,891,212 | 78,891,212 |
fc00a35c576a92580dea6a173fd3d422f0e43d1b | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x77befc673ad5ace4722196459099f1ce6e6bea4eb15d94265c7492a22ea55d58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-7 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 7? | 78,891,212 | 78,891,212 |
4a15626c13a23a9d9fbc830b8c12813967c911f8 | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x947e9986973231103cc2ba739c451aa6427afb33851fa535cfbecae7f1c7d369 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 12? | 79,069,471 | 79,069,471 |
8a959aa4c54a428b9b222ff9cc899ed18f7ad1cd | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0xf07cb303587725390ee0c84e07540311b5b52cdedffbc485304ac96876f1a80e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112,000 on November 12? | 79,069,471 | 79,069,471 |
a2742366606b1e8ed7efb9295fd00301f720d34d | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x3266194410ebce476301dc96bcb85e97efc44860838db0ec41a17ce8d7f7b776 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-16 | Will the price of XRP be less than $1.90 on November 16? | 79,159,425 | 79,159,425 |
19b322d499a0a6511d8f01c37731b2bf23f82ab8 | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x88a384a44e8ada9659dca70a431c6cc77bc9ab6fc76de93ab732bad5ad519467 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-16 | Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on November 16? | 79,159,425 | 79,159,425 |
ff256685faea14ac51e93c7623050c36031f0c91 | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x911b12990cdc48627be45d004c965359964b523c9b6e8b93d3cd29f681088e0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on November 16? | 79,159,425 | 79,159,425 |
951cfb852f8b9879b1937932c910818b3920f2b5 | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0xbe117d4574ef2cb15c9ed1d8988c8e22c4d51337d227c006aa1a86c5de6d92bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 16? | 79,159,425 | 79,159,425 |
b42b094ab55f06ff1dacfc5ec8893b87a8301f2f | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x506fa02fe29fd886c9ea6b22a20c4fd2d36d1a7e43602f47749c08cb89fa5482 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-19 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.80 on November 19? | 79,266,458 | 79,266,458 |
7d50056b35f25d2280e0b5a32762f1e24ed2049d | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x7e890114ac73f8bf84ab56e54a78c1697fdd0d4d56b01df9cd05d9bbc8333ee1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? | 79,266,458 | 79,266,458 |
6d905599fe336898d18da52338ad1315d2db71ea | 0x03747e677eeac6c1a071e07021acbb3cb6e5ab64 | 0x96244662f46777f639fc105d60f514bba681f019e41e1540d6831c7d28ebbe14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 3? | Event: xrp-price-on-november-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-19 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,800 on November 19? | 79,266,458 | 79,266,458 |
80698115501b7c84bd5cd2a986c5e6f04e8ac3ed | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x99414571aca688955888051e6b05abd2d13299ab882b4195615de5f8486238ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | 74,320,594 | 74,320,594 |
b1f81fc0b077417fda20a4debe12ce20e951e830 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x7f134c347ed53b7f36ac5de14ede2724a0eb47b9c1ba721d57d9ac52a615132c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output s... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | 74,364,994 | 74,364,994 |
16fcb575058c04bdcb3b8c10ca5d6c3edcf70c1d | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x6bb6dbeee73acdf1f45ee29e34e89fbe14422a2fe185f39f8895bf636e8e15f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or mor... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25? | 74,403,774 | 74,403,774 |
04d848e3d9d11f3229fb1a036aa4a58d858a49e8 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x66312ddecbf8921888c4e1c4c41c0a6b23aeb2b9dd3d48deb995cbac268f0135 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25? | 74,500,412 | 74,500,412 |
bffe30d1f707f11fd47152f323226af9ecc9c6df | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0xcf76624fbb649080513c10b37368d1eda84ba2271af8d0427101c758db6181c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1? | 74,581,766 | 74,581,766 |
c8bf8f16eb5c62fdfe5e7dad58add50b25e652bf | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x209e314b65b2a5869d819318c0ca2c4263e9c386c2f1e5061404143d43328029 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1? | 74,659,330 | 74,659,330 |
296849b9a2286b46bf2592695153fb1506178fd0 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x66012fd2dcf38e1fa0253c2e114d9db941732661a0879c3a32b25bf80a322229 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-25-august-1 | Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? | 74,659,330 | 74,659,330 |
50df35fe7dbca4097009d74b9e4ba506865bc738 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x558bbb9554b28c3145d57abfd78840ef4dd534af1221caa59b7cd0a97bb639f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8? | 74,925,414 | 74,925,414 |
c3f45df4d68811a66ff11783867ae87aba5626c8 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x3fdcc8acb8def23b90c917ec7bf5f0c7eaca5f805171c874a69248fd5a7f8c4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8? | 74,938,058 | 74,938,058 |
f34e365f1641b3a590d29ed8d486633c0ec1d30f | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x8a5ea53e9be5337fc80c804af2fb51523504bf53e4fc328c09ee35ff934cdc55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? | 74,938,058 | 74,938,058 |
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