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train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET | Ev...
up
0.26393
xrp-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et
XRP Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET
73,401,508
73,401,508
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0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
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train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0924961316439097 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 2...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET
73,401,511
73,405,374
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0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
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train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0924961316439097 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 2...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET
73,409,400
73,409,400
a1e02e155473000e51aa838fa2027a8ce3a3ff1f
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x1bc29a516109ba7f82feaf26edece4fed97e38e7d643bdae0e4f3ac6f2a81340
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5062127583845136 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 2...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et
XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET
73,409,407
73,410,500
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0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
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train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5062127583845136 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET
73,409,413
73,409,413
3e0074c69845b9f1552c0dba6fbe8f945b54dfb2
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x3279b31b8c5cf68ecea69041c9b6d58385ba8debb12468c159355f0f23c70937
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | E...
down
0.159162
xrp-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et
XRP Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET
73,409,418
73,409,418
ad2d0bc77b80cc14f3d867929c5f62b3c462e924
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7a67cbadfb1591849488e638895e5969564858cc274665b2e3b48a03f54017d8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.649312849909673 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29...
up
0.062757
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET
73,409,421
73,409,421
d3f3a854635c5eb1ad6e4e1dd657851e67d40e48
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x4a5e98ea8562885717c633637628f965bc236636b69c129f29185f8f741d817d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.649312849909673 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.34086097388849684 3. Question: XRP Up or Dow...
down
0.486339
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET
73,413,673
73,413,673
a800df9b5e9bc43cc7d999aa631f4ff4b7107028
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x0858929dd19ab22c51a233cfa8241e4441e10ef66808b1e84b822f2912d6e7e3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.34086097388849684 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5886586695747001 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down...
down
0.6
ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET
73,413,676
73,413,676
9d3eeeda6deb1e370d79022c345857dda2c7d332
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x5ce35610aaf45514d870bd86ebca565319fb1dccf5dfdeb445b31f34a9b8d42b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5886586695747001 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6769460744073496 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ...
down
0.591833
solana-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et
Solana Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET
73,413,679
73,413,679
aaa60140bad3621b99536125f013f3dd36d77811
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xb66b6120f1bd998e8d66be5c0d3af7f0db58175de92a29a50d14611fc5032dd4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6769460744073496 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.4450243107420448 3. Question: XRP Up or D...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et
XRP Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET
73,413,683
73,413,683
f195ddb39926979794ef30852b3e1f1864189816
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x839f3dcd97312524bfd015d56eac5071c27c7e3e791897d0dd564abf3f9477c4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.4450243107420448 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.7588259274357929 3. Question: Solana Up or Down -...
down
0.6
ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET
73,413,687
73,413,687
d2ba821db908192cc71eb4b4b98920857ff9af1f
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xc6b6ddb2e0e75df8251242eb15d0462c3ab1bf14b8b6c899a2e7ed03b3992cf0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.7588259274357929 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5372682523102054 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down -...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et
Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET
73,413,691
73,417,323
e6a2ab4cf89d9fe824a2d6664f423ba55bce3e92
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x555e1d51806b3ad8a466fc2ed7ecab94f190dc23728d45ee5b01c554f3880707
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5372682523102054 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June ...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et
XRP Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET
73,413,694
73,413,694
3cc0f5d2ad670ece2fde3a90d1fdedd60a277cfc
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x641b3d7b21bf67446d6186353a5a58f4f5cf8f5872998df9649e0d382a81ab30
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6973525219528437 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Ju...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET
73,413,697
73,413,697
dab3b96bc59e51b2c9bbc73f19e5703e7e7aa6d9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xed1b7a19043e4a2b75fdc46b3feefb3bf52cd86d7caf43a472d632d9e6af4afb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6973525219528437 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5621131549123878 3. Question: Bitcoin U...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET
73,413,703
73,418,739
a1467750ea849ab3ceea0d9a50cfc52c54a0368c
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xb4e505630694586191095859a3ea718ebb3fde4dfd66a296fba4d18209f37ef7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5621131549123878 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.07243688288742448 3. Question: XRP Up o...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et
XRP Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET
73,413,706
73,419,032
9c8d3c56b2c95c232e6a83806ae5c179a8b10239
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7d1065b412588a3d21573021c808e0760ad93c74d10fecb0535b610a349011f4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.07243688288742448 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET ...
down
0.341216
ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET
73,445,088
73,445,088
79a1a2499be0a8d6ed9ec1589c86671dc949fcd9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x3d5906ec43f2d16de47a515e8df4ce91053cf0da5a7f57e26aca72fb2bcab637
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-...
up
0.612247
ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-6am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 6AM ET
73,445,113
73,445,113
4f49ddada22cc5d72d9f47d92314b88cfdd9ba88
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x8ea83503595b149e00b8d50aca265943901624a30a5e48a8edf74a3b231a7cae
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.4780959913061273 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ...
up
0.834807
solana-up-or-down-july-1-6am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 1, 6AM ET
73,445,135
73,445,135
3971c053a363cf83360b4ef37c689b1f3c9f7a45
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xf65a71e4aab28e1d4bb0abcb2cdf7cdfbebabbe42310596018658d76bbb9c414
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.4780959913061273 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29...
down
0.024129
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7AM ET
73,445,160
73,445,160
369296e0bb111f702332d035ad7f097f956157af
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x0cb5a8984c516fc6427cf8d531e7d52f5c065979adf20acfe95645f8f2f56b05
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET | Even...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET
73,447,880
73,447,880
84e8f60af6899049102092e77e70895e051baabb
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x24bde705a112fa58aff670d90ddad9c8f4a9b7585b4a84c041aa25f6a18e6830
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1503985641133928 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 3...
down
0.065896
xrp-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et
XRP Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET
73,447,903
73,447,903
0bd9e9982052b7565a6a16985c3c4edc59f31d7c
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x3629dccd1218e0f5e9e620a24cfc4a5e61e229499e19a0db1f1f52e8a001df69
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1503985641133928 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.4717770125773698 3. Question: Solana Up...
down
0.017695
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET
73,447,926
73,447,926
1ca47d7414491fb1b168fe077b306ffb1e38e836
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x26ee87432d45f7f100715b5518baf9675f80cfe6109d8b838b3f6f865094a951
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.4717770125773698 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.7535061764403528 3. Question: Solana Up o...
up
0.298246
xrp-up-or-down-july-1-10am-et
XRP Up or Down - July 1, 10AM ET
73,449,443
73,449,443
2a6a69058839b67341490f3f409df2895bf192f0
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x0248fc3c9ba657201e19f9e22a648ef8c4b25b362bf709af40d3e2e7e535cd73
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.7535061764403528 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.9042357751337137 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - ...
down
0.811925
ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET
73,450,608
73,451,536
5d34d2f468343923a69a9baa59bbd92667a05418
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xd912b699a54cfcddc836ad29d25620845f6a641a4e5e3b17aff63504f583cc8b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.9042357751337137 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2117822520507084 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June...
up
0.260196
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET
73,450,631
73,450,941
2205644ba17a48bc3f5f2607b5d4ec0e6457bf46
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xc057ec3dbdcdfaff0736d4d0c704815e34366256a05c7d13e484754597430d70
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2117822520507084 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 5AM E...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET
73,452,132
73,452,132
f0a38c200c0e32e1797e6bb21288ca365654db3b
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xdbd91ac5bfba721fff70c8256640a51b659db5f0e57597b5732c7c2c1adc1952
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.31444579235986814 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30,...
up
1
solana-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET
73,452,138
73,452,138
774901d1bc3dbc7e8b58c46f4c84dc323668fa0f
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x456dd25835f5c1129db568465d6a4e60581d1158a16e25cdd22a120675e36a1d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.31444579235986814 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.26392961876832843 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ...
down
0.662045
xrp-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET
73,453,287
73,453,287
311e4b430494931f5f03c2a6955adc6dc52ce2f5
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xb90fe106842762facfac69e5515aeb9e4020ac0cfa087aefbfab25282161c49e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.26392961876832843 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-1pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 1PM ET
73,453,633
73,453,633
9e757798ef160a7c1ac25aab415ca0635b80c6a9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xa5fb44e8ae0ca15336c2e141e9ce1f0f16e9caac4efdb1ba1b88e3594f985731
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Even...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3PM ET
73,501,248
73,501,248
4c21eba27f45364c5c83d305b1e741f525705765
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x568dd5bd1688566506d1b7e91355505d57f51380c8d3dc45157435b1bdbb1394
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: ...
up
0.56521
ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET
73,501,252
73,501,252
4a20ff5f23524e9be2c4cb5d76a41ab4b0cd099b
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x9f9b3a466d856d96bfd8770bb555fe754c45d46757773cb9ec62a20ec2f0f740
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-u...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET
73,501,255
73,504,638
91c335fa1cee16446af009c40f196e46ce29fff6
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x0fb35f7c40dab7d02721d983d7c2adfdb0cc1d78617030c30d6449e1003ffe8b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1591618368256799 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9A...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET
73,501,258
73,504,650
2b2ebdf72231153c6f84edf3964d6c360b2ac1d9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x525e771244a7409a7bcb618f1fa384357bea74c4a89d892514f6a6f3d8aa5c63
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1591618368256799 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.06275727079909145 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -...
up
0.367281
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET
73,501,261
73,501,261
2ee9d08b2440298663172659942db10f2e6d9ed2
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xb6f21e0bbf4898591dfde40f597d37e2e9595f32905df8f266532e040b58fbe8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.06275727079909145 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.48633879781420764 3. Question: Ethereum ...
down
0.963405
solana-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET
73,501,264
73,501,264
7920d36ea5e8524521d60f60f8747de35f590925
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xaf5fab9893871835926265ba51d0671d81636843df54d10f544222b777f95147
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.48633879781420764 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6 3. Question: Solana Up or Down -...
down
0.149796
ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET
73,501,552
73,502,129
74cb66f4befc38316d5987e59715b108967aff0e
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xcf2545a86f175bef16f03e5ee6d2b06e8d25bb3f04a5f902e1bcae0933983296
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5918328062928867 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June ...
down
0.298255
xrp-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET
73,501,555
73,501,555
923923c29fb172eb09c5cb353d2381009c5fcaf2
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xbbea703f55dfff8668efb4a209d62e79fa15c1c1dc375fd3e5932ea8685472d9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5918328062928867 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1...
up
0.31224
ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET
73,504,110
73,504,110
0897a832b299471907f4979694c145ba4cc825f9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x38289ca2e6d462de007697bd467642dc6d4e8e7fe5668899a59c0845d2be0845
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Even...
up
0.381473
solana-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET
73,504,116
73,504,116
eac8d09cde83f09d4aa227f67c780dddf329415d
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xac8f412e7b977ff2925988913c0e255d3029ab73e579ab7cdc52af953ed04355
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | E...
up
0.553586
xrp-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET
73,504,145
73,504,145
119b4d2b1d473faf6603e0186731bd75a53d887c
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7636f44068c8974d52182cda7f13f7cc8a2343bccb62c0e6346b61db993eba2c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: ...
up
0.504465
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET
73,504,147
73,504,147
f1b43297d201f80d77142190303e7830786b09be
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x75990c6955ab9a8d5fb5c58efaec534d5ceefc5c3ee49ff7d6a3c122c2450afe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event...
down
0.900605
solana-up-or-down-july-2-11pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 11PM ET
73,513,428
73,513,428
7e7e7dec3c8484302f416655a85e34ab47142ea9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x26ce684abbc6d229c373c50358194b63e5e51eb69eacb830423c6e33e5aa77fe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Ev...
down
0.128278
xrp-up-or-down-july-2-11pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 2, 11PM ET
73,513,431
73,513,431
e93e7fb832554d126c4d0dcb3869df12fde5bfe8
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7a4de74357e8ee78d54997727183082bb7ea3b81707a2e8f2ef304255ba918ea
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | Event: e...
down
0.920353
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-12am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12AM ET
73,513,435
73,513,435
a9442a947a3c3f9ec08c8a6c90b2379ffb7c4528
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xf1288a179642b32a9d58c19daa3ce17293acdb1d24fadf3ded43784cc10fbc37
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.3412159835017486 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 6AM ...
up
0.741411
solana-up-or-down-july-3-2am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 2AM ET
73,518,200
73,518,200
25aa7155fd506d49aebb9c5211903f7e1aef2ffa
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x33d1a5a70711aff124af4401df188d92400330dbed0afed3baf1b69b1011dfb5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.3412159835017486 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6122467405046614 3. Question: Solana Up or ...
down
0.50602
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET
73,518,203
73,518,773
19c2053020991c3484a35a5274b8ff1d055882f5
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xd443956a43fb134b8cd5fc64b67561863eb0c8d7ec1ce0e4cc64549273a45333
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6122467405046614 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-1-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.8348065328103963 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ...
up
0.949358
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET
73,518,205
73,518,205
2f532df24f7afe220b56dddb3f0a18e726c262c8
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x8001902c695bfbdc731e796a917837e0660bd00e4560e8234bf409de1aea0131
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-1-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.8348065328103963 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.024129059175300744 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do...
down
0.026072
solana-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET
73,519,031
73,519,031
8b9b12194700a88f4aa07487ba61523a17d14fb9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x340beaf65d0de2112b19a030e1fa3836013b25abd75ba0e735efa6697744e7a3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.024129059175300744 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 9...
up
0.604978
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-4am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 4AM ET
73,520,432
73,520,691
aeeb66fb80dec523c662b90bfd3bc456b7824056
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7f4ee9656aceb978b4f013e7442de6939fc4d6599bf6042361c876140754e451
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.06589574965794236 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET...
down
0.63004
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-5am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 5AM ET
73,522,360
73,522,360
0e32da4674833ddbabe38a27964b041e4430a693
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xe24c88aba85961f537f092e034da3b1e2ab1157ec1c1297937f6ee8fa8b8843e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.06589574965794236 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.01769479799547652 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July...
up
0.777671
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET
73,522,654
73,524,065
6d7c0c29bf58ec3fa7ae3fa32dab80eb11f2b2a8
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x07f5cbe7c568921f6d0d9702e9122733d1d82be5680bff2f900f14a6a3084a72
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.01769479799547652 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-1-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2982456373953331 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - ...
up
0.708526
solana-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET
73,523,199
73,523,199
7ea7512c39b167b3c344b3f91dca30ab64545629
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x571d10a3ae0402e393981a2d1e6ce6c6b1b9bfcaad61f578583ee05b9ce15da0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-1-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2982456373953331 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.8119245266511422 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET
73,523,201
73,523,777
65222b3102b457a4c6b54a0d303fdc680e2e3bb3
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7c721ac4379c3eb0c8d038debf7d69cf46d5baee80b703b281589759d031679d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.8119245266511422 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2601964374895955 3. Question: Bitcoin Up ...
up
0.759794
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET
73,523,780
73,524,068
aa33f0a9babce2723e2b39a784cea7d198ef40f5
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xc932e8f34b2102247dcd92c60c65a31de1c688a2b70e4261ca5781ae5ca8ef4b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2601964374895955 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, ...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7AM ET
73,524,643
73,529,536
1aecf4506bb3cda04af8ef3bcf807e6b7fec1aa7
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x81763cba7f5da48655eec45e656b1d0e3390a01234a9e5a93f49c36eb7997f2a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-u...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET
73,526,646
73,531,232
1aea6f6beb2cdf8fe0161cfb6bc855d57adb3a17
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x8c8c67443f5d64c4536a3a7208480dc2d8d367d30e123273346463c116db85d0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6620450606585788 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 1PM ET | E...
up
0.553789
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET
73,526,653
73,527,232
ca9cc99503c6e14f5402eb4bd5afbb98cd695b09
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xc9c2e49888c52e7f7703a793b2ce4127dfd913a7b6b9d39485a59a1595a9ef7a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6620450606585788 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3PM E...
up
0.041022
solana-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET
73,526,935
73,526,935
5506419e1ceb990211cc32dfe97510c54b7eba79
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x11c57e42a48b54b44df189353266d7661130a4128a59672b459210bdc3220861
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Even...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET
73,526,941
73,531,228
720d82d566beba199d9d6f4842cbf1e89ac38121
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xdbf6d7c98d7b5aa4f409e5bb3b82726e0c8316601d8636065a59c6fa00999e8f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5652100859959736 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 4P...
down
0.507006
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET
73,527,522
73,528,983
1b1c2e144cd7a286efef227c6ec324ece977211e
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x05b99038588db3b8c80dba72398785e2d5ebd70d6142b604d9c904d0aaa87e27
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5652100859959736 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET ...
down
0.592548
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET
73,527,524
73,528,400
18c4022f65d4355f456a92c294e37872591434a3
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x8b5214187de06b79f0a5af96188f638972e4986de219db7f4910a8c2e57cb403
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET
73,527,810
73,528,688
39cf24ada535b510ca3080e834d5804d894e76dc
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xd14cda7a7853ee64e3facaf753879727bf6f1bbce79118e4b67247bb17b6de18
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3672810518495454 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET | Eve...
down
0.674589
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET
73,527,812
73,528,691
2538dee5a39586c06428fe5dbcc8bfd5d7c2ef40
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xa430a0fa927f02881525019f66c4e527d53a9dc15502af9dca4f691aed3a9c8a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-4pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3672810518495454 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.963405379537398 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down ...
up
0.35766
solana-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET
73,529,272
73,530,139
0bb63601a6b7bb4057447aba3ba98ec50ab32bd3
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xba57f2105e2b348be06a2b43cc39f3c681434d5ec18c6eb7e5881324ac7787ee
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.963405379537398 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1497955546948891 3. Question: XRP Up or Down -...
up
0.441839
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET
73,529,274
73,530,145
8270d0a3ffb92ae24aa89983c55325d27f20d8e7
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xbbabffce4e0557e1b6bed35d3884386118e0933b151092122db7d3f1eb47bbdf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1497955546948891 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.29825455472034657 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down ...
up
0.76807
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET
73,530,142
73,530,142
a9329673998c705ec6b0fa103b24f66639621ea9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xb6622a78ffb8604b3b5a5ca17049f2dd0e0730bb47b0b85a9704452957adb541
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.29825455472034657 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3122403323316155 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Ju...
up
0.827868
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET
73,530,148
73,530,437
29ea6551873e3fc5ba479e076ad9b236676b1e3c
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x59e3e3bcaa86cb9466c94599bce156513aa2d984b5075e568b02676f2307d456
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3122403323316155 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3814733988353881 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Ju...
up
0.552653
solana-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET
73,531,008
73,533,274
0392b9f84a9fd838445cb29423bebe1874c85563
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x833b65efc861a4cb8f912329d5499ce7d4330752c5135c29df7abc3f94a87978
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3814733988353881 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.553585894498056 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6...
up
0.153951
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET
73,531,011
73,533,272
46c5a0c7cce00570a2624a273dbb4afb4db4ea4d
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xb1f7a011bd08f9d8e54bb4e74b0cb472d0c55b6d28f9df9f40532b7af4d7679c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.553585894498056 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5044646788655408 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, ...
up
0.203001
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET
73,531,016
73,533,276
7c50ca103d180845ae407a5b1d56d37820cbf560
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x42a21b2cda9c78f4ba7b1fd09ab0d1deb64729dabf89ad92c9ddd2e5d10452bf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5044646788655408 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 11PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-2-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.9006051983150073 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - ...
up
0.1383
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET
73,531,019
73,533,278
76db21fe5073f9f05d87063dcda4bfd27a68aefd
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x6df24aa2e287e2e2de8cc11b67088bcbe113876a7aafdc7f24e59f2592d18797
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 2, 11PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-2-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.9006051983150073 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-2-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.12827783275112098 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -...
down
0.025367
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET
73,533,280
73,533,280
b39bf1fefc1df5b67fa79716572f87b8438d99b3
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x93faba56178a457a22fadb74851d56b922b4e0c31eba18c948291c9d14d7ed5a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 2, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-2-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.12827783275112098 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.9203528756250365 3. Question: Solana Up or Down ...
down
0.413957
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET
73,533,283
73,536,395
fe5c4fbc449fa13c1fb5a7e8f26f95d25eed9477
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xbe1b379777f0ebf5e5f9fca422ea5ff8b4ca7da997f8bcb8e6bfe3a393ba1ab2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.9203528756250365 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.741410666011305 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Dow...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET
73,533,285
73,536,389
3690696b43b6a47eae862ea378fa78856af30016
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x76814a4ebe83c5039a4a85efc93555a6261e9f1967509dd25d0aed712a4ccb4a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.741410666011305 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5060202528637642 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down...
down
0.690877
solana-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET
73,536,392
73,536,392
31db918ee8a2427d5a422dc4e088d3ecf229d292
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x1ce69a670dcae7ff294810504426febbc1a8dc1587a06387867c24fecb7f25e2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5060202528637642 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.9493579415857087 3. Question: Solana Up or Do...
down
0.280621
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET
73,536,398
73,536,398
a65a8d2651145c225e8da126d50b92c847b1e7ef
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xf45d18291e59c9fcd45fd797ae7363d5093d4a619e45469a7b7eec87c869928a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.9493579415857087 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.02607249236006344 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Dow...
down
0.330591
solana-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET
73,536,400
73,536,400
1b3509ae86fba2cf2ed887cbe9df320be775a30e
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xbbe6e393c46c7ae70da52f30b69b8cb2312f72caddea30d262c459517b16f507
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.02607249236006344 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6049783672108395 3. Question: Ethereum Up or D...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET
73,536,403
73,536,403
b26a4c47a33c4a955a00a83c7d550a730e955ec9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x1247bdcac2d11501265f94e5d413015f1e621cdd879cd7d29de26b7d79020b3c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6049783672108395 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6300396393435889 3. Question: Ethereum Up o...
down
0.404767
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET
73,536,405
73,536,405
e8911304326a12bdbc9f30a532a83b22d8705983
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x03248ec7384228e5118e103c243816dfdf3f6306efb081402f5a706df3264ed8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6300396393435889 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.7776707303516508 3. Question: Solana Up or ...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET
73,536,407
73,539,832
2fcc2f6c7b3d733cfd605d35dab6b6ded59a0e7b
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xcbd146685aedf1fa201925845cdae6ec9c5e703bb4e892879e54bebb195e6c53
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.7776707303516508 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.7085260340276499 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Ju...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET
73,536,409
73,539,830
112e6b6725052c73b9b59b3eb200f758adbe28db
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x9b027d1ee3093550ce0e5ad219a520fbb8323c3f4551f681f23e7fd6f12360f6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.7085260340276499 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Even...
down
0.151341
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET
73,536,411
73,539,843
f958172870bbbfae2f853b2e15cbe977ce7d2d94
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x35b2ea6d01cd21540745b32a4da1e39c72fb3ede4af9372aca77bb0d9ab785e8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.7597938142309497 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7AM ET | Ev...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET
73,536,413
73,539,828
67bf90db32295e76bb403b8cab8ad2fe585ef8e9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xc9c5cfe038bee64e5b689fe75166ddf80b70be3faf471736b8a0dcc790c66a05
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.7597938142309497 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 8A...
down
0.565807
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET
73,539,846
73,539,846
5d6c15dce6cf7213b91f30df9010a181e21879de
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x366f7b803137b9f4ecbc5899a4141dfe33e0882d1eef6db2568e9288ea3b37c7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: xr...
down
0.459623
solana-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET
73,539,849
73,539,849
89103ea727904712cb265ef26bfbb07073c08c29
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x4cfbbf73b0568e888f2849327f21b96b86caa385327737d3e863271ae3fbe163
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5537889493570218 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | E...
up
0.508129
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET
73,539,852
73,539,852
d57c84a2e2744bf375bcd7d8d8fd4d831405a15d
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7a5aa5bcddf5ba9f4ed00c99408f117538313ab3a1a4956fef727acc87fadb44
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5537889493570218 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.04102180245938802 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3,...
down
0.536005
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET
73,539,855
73,539,855
209556127d77d5a4c525956663ec9b4985fcd4f0
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xbaf5e70f10d6bda99c3e1298fee2373c1edd08f815ad4501843b17f92d6425e9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.04102180245938802 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET |...
down
0.856646
solana-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET
73,539,857
73,539,857
02bc63eccb78d0d517ccf707660b3f19f8cdddd5
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x4824b4129b53a5aed829bfa22bd0fb3442d09e2ec7df41dc9ba11b9eb1c8728f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.507005633888904 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | E...
down
0.926474
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET
73,539,859
73,539,859
60afb657d4889953fec21dba6627dfad86649110
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xed37b36f752c058405a49078971578951d223e80d35967f75330de7f6b31f375
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.507005633888904 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5925480840607616 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET
73,539,861
73,540,718
1ffc6bb5ae57ee61b15acf09622c95b3d3040722
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x88cdf347b841bd1e1c64b4cfe62fbe0e5b399fd6e08e96da46e79eed9487605c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5925480840607616 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 9A...
down
0.966538
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET
73,540,431
73,540,431
d074e6371dd5d25f545048e485591d924246a65f
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x63dcc338fa427058fd46cf8f339c24786d16ee80871146bbe520dc79cb60c7ac
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6745888157894737 3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 10...
down
0
solana-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET
73,541,287
73,541,581
23cfb7f1578c65f15f97e6da6e470783a3517b3c
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x59961073df4cbae0360c5a4b0538818dcea4f9e49cfdcb95efbbe0f9d9ccbc28
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6745888157894737 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3576601790330506 3. Question: XRP Up or Down ...
up
0.244766
ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET
73,541,289
73,541,583
76664c1cb5e4333f73127f770913547c5398919e
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x054159f3200550a4190eb2b610e0fffe5a73f095a6d3d55269ffe7302c7ebeab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3576601790330506 2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.44183852006212276 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Ju...
up
0.072634
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET
73,541,291
73,541,584
92f674b539054f7db27b7e88a9f45d7aac83dee9
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x9e47a3e25c18f7d711557bbd7f484699a3e5c715bd310fd6349d87a096b3717a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.44183852006212276 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.768069709685707 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
up
0.288427
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET
73,541,295
73,541,295
0a341b205426b3b0b60d372319e6d559751bc2a7
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xc9b1117bc4fe347946664906902c8c66b7ecc136f1cee24819cdcb835000bd0f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.768069709685707 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.8278677002941871 3. Question: Solana Up or D...
up
0.386095
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET
73,542,715
73,543,295
40879db95d86672752766301f774b2afcd3e045b
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xa7715123633fd0524e01a46d965ff1e12b76fd602e3f054d4180177339385652
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.8278677002941871 2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5526533900935079 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do...
up
0.141789
solana-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET
73,542,717
73,544,156
02b1f1026258200c35643a6e184e955ba913cbc1
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xbfde5b3058588ac052aad60382a5c6976e2526356bb855f45d7c69038b1789a1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5526533900935079 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.15395112268949263 3. Question: XRP Up or Down...
up
0.431941
xrp-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et
XRP Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET
73,543,293
73,543,293