sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a739a02a2e4a70ab06cf302bdde3c948152031cc | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x265293e363cb6c04c523e31674869a80288d77e092d098965401ac5210bcd42e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? | 74,962,757 | 74,962,757 |
701c3cf87e89ec5dcc57c911e95cd88b00234e0e | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x308b6a4edf56bcc193480cf97de46c789eea1608414d039cec5dcf2b81386c6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 465–479 times August 1–August 8? | 74,962,757 | 74,962,757 |
7cb619a92b4469a1449fbb82a7f11c9883313792 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x335f3e691a875edcac5f1c555d7f699da5fbc006e6cc4f1168fe70bb49561b77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 480–494 times August 1–August 8? | 74,962,757 | 74,962,757 |
57485f9811511a2d931d944567972ad0a546353e | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x5f17a838f8b96acae292bcc94649f66458bab4d4624855d198a71483d410bad6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8? | 74,962,757 | 74,962,757 |
12fc585459f824fc2ce7489e308a7a37a4f017e3 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x6bc94b1ada9cec37d728bd4cf1884507afda84b853d7e3628bc4d112caa43462 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8? | 74,962,757 | 74,962,757 |
98ebf6bddcb7f6201ec6f46a03b533f3fd3056a4 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x9fe5033b27146a63f7c18a0879e113839b39695c3733f89acf4bf690a8741393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8-higher-brackets | Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? | 74,962,757 | 74,962,757 |
7442906a9632f9b7ade0976fcc4437be624a7eee | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x6e72f30823e7c4b20a07bcc8e40d3cf9cfe8c4c976f6c1960bbe4ccf115703fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | will-trump-mention-sydney-sweeney-again-by-friday | Will Trump mention "Sydney Sweeney" again by Friday? | 74,984,863 | 74,984,863 |
d2a4251c03f26770e73619854170b6aff499a930 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x26ed923282fbb8b334820b1f6852cdb5e45231dc708a3a7b8d006cdc1e36689c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get more than 70 million views the first week? | 75,514,950 | 75,514,950 |
6c4dede1d1a49a0ef3802f311252e58ed5ffffd4 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x77a6ef3462f6b2e7c95e68f56f0e630c82e09eacc2268c3bc677db52eb7118fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 50 and 60 million views the first week? | 75,514,950 | 75,514,950 |
868776f3876f164471cb6e1cb3202659a6dbc067 | 0x038bca073c9aebb694028d70eec94116ed4bafc4 | 0x84c1cf625eb1053f99e1736d6ce1067beb2ee32e729e508f4746f5aa38fa6d30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July ... | yes | 1 | of-views-taylor-swifts-appearance-on-new-heights-gets-week-1 | Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 60 and 70 million views the first week? | 75,514,950 | 75,514,950 |
1074984ff08c97a96035883523ec4fbde63d44e3 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x3c3d85d94a8938ee548d9ab6cc74f9c384768025f69395e55d3d1c8d7b6a4026 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?
Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | 66,948,436 | 66,948,436 |
10dd33a07cbd1ea629c0a2b6ac52801c7b819375 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x9b9d9f7e30faa548ba3c4878ed16a39d19fc207e1315bb856f1e10dddb40aa13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words?
Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be
Predict the use... | yes | 1 | how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | 66,954,148 | 66,954,148 |
b24a9e4d2745a9d227c030c072f15936876c2b20 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x9766c5a740ade5e611dba734c0377e59ba59d33df35648ae5bc4922b7e8ca68c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | vct-2025-americas-kickoff-winner | Will Sentinels win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? | 67,762,793 | 67,762,793 |
b66cc57728d7f0307d11bf5c023e4b3c424c03f1 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x9830f4cb36cf270ca12945d72e8c0804207b54d67f3e215e360b2844d3fd4730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | vct-2025-americas-kickoff-winner | Will G2 Esports win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? | 67,762,793 | 67,762,793 |
6e208fbd0ebefe68b7c69df2e1442cf631543837 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xf5b2f5e93ec15fa2845990e9cd24a2fce4528c6fda4fcef3ee1b430275af665e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry over 60 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,762,793 | 67,762,793 |
1f2259bac741213c2ad2a8f7faf3eef072065131 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x03a0393804923ef3a9a4a82ead4a6fa53050a72412041d25714486efc34ec1ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,813 | 75,777,813 |
ef212222c3583ad351d84eeb75d74173a5fe5a17 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xbee51b04288760201f8e042b351462fe53580875e7a69fc100728b2773155ee4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission? | 75,777,818 | 75,777,818 |
37e02a7ae9942e18f03a73b42dfb8ad744a29a02 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x220e7bb73147e5df24c4ce15cec6e21d19eb9f46d61f1d4b823e6e0d0c6ff65b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
456c68b6add68331826215e69a2f0af1d0bd5783 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x43acbd862531ee9f0e853a0dfd1ae3af4ac157bc626eeb90b9fc5548b61017ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
dc35a5fcc69c2d6e502c602b44134835e1de909d | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x56030c3b4726de62df7d8ffe81f194854e89a3e0804ab1fa8b376a6be6bb3851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
26c5baa77f093dddaf751004028777e6b5af8d5a | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x67358a6d0a5cc469e3a2f085718e7e7a20c4efbd721d1463b807a01dcc987afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Teodor Nițulescu win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
48f83c38cb7e306d43fc8d3c44cd439771237095 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x696f3a4c9b215da92c40d47a6cc344da5a6cc29cb140ec514a41020c2e6ba158 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
2be9257b8d486a36e2c4cd879e9a284b0830e313 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x784d67eb3b205e7f6543b09d8737d5dc1c2a14d43a102bbb59f7f4f94fc56135 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
07066965284af443c1c80e6064836e5e66260c05 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x995206207b19045aa5cfb42f5338ffd2642a851fe682363bc0c5848e6b1b6072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
176bd11245220efbb3fdac0dbd55f5f6b6b875a6 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xcc4e7542c6b9b0c0a5069dc1dc16d27fd60c4654f3a36fbc1db96ca74939a580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Daniel Funeriu win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
eba347de75e7a94799fb7393a06252385ecb2fa7 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xdcb8c79ccace3d40747c0f9208887929532245b82fcdf6d948c9167e61cc6c48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by KO/TKO/DQ? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
423324b030371c483e7076f30abe362a21b90d16 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xe343e905d4a805016123652e4975a0bb01461d210c2990c578f53dedf5442012 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election? | 75,777,850 | 75,777,850 |
001db649b994f9cbe4810b27be5538a77fa3affd | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xe8a6e627bde35b8b954804309fb83cc923a4f7a309b8e2944a4bccee55e9ac0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Will MrBeast raise 40m on Tuesday September 2 or later? | 75,905,806 | 75,905,806 |
d71554aabd8df53273846e0b52b6dcbce4ec057c | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x231f558643c68ee1d37cec2d4f48d820ca140856b6080024f5ab0fbbd5cb3906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? | 76,139,392 | 76,139,392 |
5b8fedff8238d7f0dc155fdb46f9888ab9fe0e74 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xef978eb7485781f08df025c536c253eb21d9f7f9d063ea11ef81b883b570f582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? | 76,366,211 | 76,366,211 |
799fe1eabc7c570f27a52ec3961c3daa2d026796 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x7bcea01e59b19c98261fbbfb2cd2b1643a6a53a6ab71a4ae8c6a2d5c8df84001 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,462,466 | 76,462,466 |
ca03eac5b5aa8f5ebc1583134490e6f6b9fed047 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x630d186f7d00ec7a3814183b29ef01526c4fc6142cc86841bd6ec2bb377b3b02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,494,897 | 76,494,897 |
ca21fdbeba32d7d9fdc8f69c55eaae8ec6ff5dbb | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x786ae71c554140ce9e99015a46ab62d1526f432a7aecc4be684025400802b7d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,526,787 | 76,526,787 |
416da937c0d9b6362d7a55cc66aed26021a9c9a7 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xd6f1157d11136071b20710d14b61c9097e927e424653a41b730e4c2c5ba565e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | when-will-israel-first-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? | 77,146,880 | 77,146,880 |
ec1337a36d8adf6b1891b53a7eac41c5caa17869 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x9aaa9c6c60544167b7de20ba9f184cb8043b39ec074a861e9bb28d4c9fff6472 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? | 77,153,222 | 77,153,222 |
bb987238270bcc8ca840eb0a8fd8a136d0a60aee | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x48f5429bc6d51ddae2a755ec9f535d2f5fcdf315096f6aaa7d15124e8f2d77e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on-918 | Will Israel not strike Yemen by October 1 ET? | 77,172,053 | 77,172,053 |
859282422103513707c9628c8a635851d47bd336 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x200369a7fc4dad910665c5a77e1c0c0d16237f79c637928bf0c5112cac2db708 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,510,800 | 77,510,800 |
2e79038815e84e8df297d1006c0fdfa36f4a4ea9 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x3f51005890c252f431a96206952a8f8280e95edcffc8df46a38742e230e8d647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-sales-121 | Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2750000 and 3000000? | 77,526,415 | 77,526,415 |
1b6cbb02a14675a852b8fbd66c2995d9bcd21196 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xaecce2b7062a75acef14d739910c6c599b1640aa191caaf1d0a3798eeba0f09e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-sales-121 | Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? | 77,526,415 | 77,526,415 |
07b74dfc500a1195dd6e505c8d95d301ff65aab1 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x1a69d82ab78bc6b562f7ccea7b6f913d35e2c6ca40d3a986091c80b86541299e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | 77,597,020 | 77,597,020 |
509724da2ba2b790373a63bb881525d2a347a412 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x79fc05376749b7ed202af5258ac31cffaa8217d9d462400c8b21972982b57bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | 77,597,020 | 77,597,020 |
0a42cb2729d0ab1dc4dc3b4f354764c99410966d | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xfaea75a7cc8e54db066761d3aa49d860ffbd25dc117b087332453ecf821bd282 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's inaugural address be 1,400-1,600 words? | Event: how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sentinels win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? | Event: vct-2025-americas-kickoff-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-529 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1? | 77,597,020 | 77,597,020 |
79c3847c6028cdd44a091e043f28b1e42349c238 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xfe46a7800ca3cfaf22156833e3b79e5e87d4e43c148dd904ba3a9342dab674bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sentinels win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? | Event: vct-2025-americas-kickoff-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will G2 Esports win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? | Event: vct-2025-americas-kickoff-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will it take Jerry... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-zelenskyy-shake-hands-for-on-friday | Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands on October 17? | 77,818,341 | 77,818,341 |
809c68e6dd988096fc4e7691a9ced5ed01b559d7 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xfad1841cefd50af27caf5e6ab756418eb32d5b1da719f9c7dcbb2ae6c02d2325 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will G2 Esports win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? | Event: vct-2025-americas-kickoff-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will it take Jerry over 60 hours to hit a hole in one? | Event: how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-zelenskyy-shake-hands-for-on-friday | Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds? | 77,844,694 | 77,844,694 |
1ff7cc08427490ffd53f411cd27148f2105ffe60 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xcb34617cb222b7638c8ba9cacdae3a732dcb32f06dbb12e59a0c54d5b819a433 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will it take Jerry over 60 hours to hit a hole in one? | Event: how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | 78,341,060 | 78,341,060 |
ff3e804d40af6cde0f058f217caa77037a888f03 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xdfd3d267e9893993f70809ad9d0d21e0a56c1651910f128c3a88d6377d766c9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | virginia-attorney-general-election-winner-2025 | Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? | 78,611,582 | 78,611,582 |
eedcc389b04d791a0a96b303551112c95308b604 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by submission? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,611,582 | 78,611,582 |
6d72c656a326c753c58d6aeae18f98434914064f | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x2b6587ea330a897e70ede817fc8887de3c4af801b6912d78017e004835aa83e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Choice: yes | C... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-7 | Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? | 78,720,968 | 78,720,968 |
1df8a04c585c3050d2bbd50ea454c1abadf93e8d | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0xbcf1339f2fd59ae08ef37e596a310734fd8b6281017734f703ddddaee776918e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus? | Event: freestyle-chess-grand-slam-weisenhaus-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-7 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? | 78,721,573 | 78,721,573 |
c32047850be97560f6c811f8d01b25c83e92fb3b | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x28abe56a6a3d7135a58c2e28e835ce2cda826fdce3cf2a71dd329a79cd482584 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Teodor Nițulescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | minneapolis-mayoral-election-665 | Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? | 78,721,664 | 78,721,664 |
8a30407f0a90e4d438000fbcbf9760480294f21a | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x6a1dc41df5e4a2703219c06378faaf8c4870d5e218164fd5656cc7c1a4542417 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Teodor Nițulescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 | 78,808,109 | 78,808,109 |
4561ee0204aa5f33a3eed3d935a9919b29eb0c83 | 0x03ac67436f169bb5348653f991d498bcb4944f55 | 0x2b68473923a8f584e8e4914f73671a027ee233b92089f9259f21a4eaa673d1b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-syria-president-events-on-november-10 | Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10? | 78,878,493 | 78,878,493 |
2cd2cec9729337ce834f6527293b0c50428f643a | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xebbb069d6253da1de72e5d7e1c8f101b3d0f68dc1060918b1f4e3a58f567d1e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | 79,565,087 | 79,565,087 |
14310dff9f879903c2e94f8c6fd51b9538b09e9e | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x2d50e48a8fdf485089e1366b003841b49426b03251a375bb22472b9bbcc48dc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Event: oscars-2026-be... | no | 0 | oscars-2026-best-picture-nominations | Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | 79,666,464 | 79,666,464 |
71c734a61731be715c6e40633eb2790ad4ffc38d | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xfa8ed71e03bf2e6b4f20773cac57dcd343da3a5437503dcd4bc2cca79f875ee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.333333 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 28? | 79,666,464 | 79,666,464 |
2c0b6b077f1d9f0dbd1982da16dfcf1987163ab9 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x4dcf23804e0ae23abfe7e9189ab1f17f47be0e7e4a8c07c565d0e8c8c5d5773a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.474411 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025? | 79,666,464 | 79,801,221 |
74810bccf42a485fb8cde78355e8992aeaf95490 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xf00886b051ccb78c519871e9c3a89a39121e0c2b28bf616171cf2a7a32a02002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 0 | who-will-trump-talk-to-in-november | Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? | 79,666,464 | 79,801,221 |
dd74fa6e18a6e21fe563d0c3d74c363f1a64f87e | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xc03f42b32e2cb6fd8e793d2f4eadc6fa66059761a72e056b43b8cc5a18281b7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.626168 | zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office-higher-strikes | Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m? | 79,666,464 | 79,801,223 |
484453395cd45c7180c81cd36fcd072897dac5a4 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x229fb5b7a630bc2e71c06d95c5977c5dea3e82d93dc039cc956a00d0153b9a12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 28? | 79,679,195 | 79,679,195 |
26594c162d9ff8dae518a7f19ee5d6ac800f7b5c | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x250ff6fb9c4009a3b4a9f2ddb05db3d856f0501880547c02038f4c2f72a51964 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 28? | 79,679,195 | 79,679,195 |
c9e3192442b940492d814fbc90d98d5347a26e37 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x2fe080131f61cd789da37bfc8df9ba1740067b583fa81ee8fe843d87c04dd38d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 0.211268 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-21-november-28 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | 79,679,195 | 79,679,195 |
fa1c9b153f5a841db7144310a33ac4971a2b32f0 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x40ad0c9cb69a2da8c92e51735fefed5102a0d1ee5486abba7b66264f3eb3382a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 1 | top-performing-magnificent-7-company-week-of-november-24 | Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24? | 79,679,195 | 79,679,195 |
ac61f21a89605bd81a56652a8fa9cc50d058cf28 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xf010ee5dc742e424d7445cf733395e2222d743cddff2dec838dd8cd310bbd1fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | 79,679,195 | 79,679,195 |
e068df2c14fd9ace22775c7281fed08ad88c6734 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xffde3239e9059cca096e7c9beb2eb6f71d9094716043d3405c9bdc2cb64f22f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 27? | 79,679,195 | 79,679,195 |
f046ea6ccc2771024e642db8af8adc20c77d5d9e | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x14eab19f30abf462cc63a0abe7caa3437851ff13c3dfdf1f17106e2234fa001e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 0 | oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-nominations | Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | 79,704,079 | 79,704,079 |
b753bbe9567b4aa691b5adc161e02f0008a0ade6 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x82de55365524a403bb8f082860bcc45bf9877779572b576ba84919f38c8561b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 0 | zootopia-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Zootopia 2" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | 79,704,079 | 79,801,223 |
0a27f31b9aaef8659111c32438e165a51f0f5322 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x014d853c42e5a59aee3dfce695701511fd88b40fd416539e8937b5bcc1261213 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 0 | openai-implements-ads-on-llm-by-december-31 | GPT ads by December 31? | 79,704,079 | 79,998,056 |
11eb7db5cb5a587c16934959ca20d07add0d666c | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xb8bbb07b3767402f82b076e8f8cc872c1d0170c691aa362e9a690746637d5413 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.514563 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025? | 79,717,470 | 79,801,221 |
a25220afff17f5abc64897b97abbd07e560474b7 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x36ec3a40dfb0ad1d79df1a1fd8a0b114c93753e0f3ae30714f0ee0a4dd9d88fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 1 | how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-november | Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025? | 79,738,748 | 79,738,748 |
05428f072f5774c659c74e6f2b2d280d27328569 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x0d5fcb549ba41884a268c4c94abdc2b49e419682b3a57092987bb9011602612f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 0 | oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-nominations | Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | 79,745,732 | 79,745,732 |
9113525a04e704620b12b5fb0c46ae0b8056c24f | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x87ab21e2e0f068f722178680a440bb4d601649d6e300975054cd2e7470c97ff3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 0.586797 | honduras-presidential-election-second-place | Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | 79,745,732 | 79,745,732 |
905157191446d0fc4b79a0ebdf6117fb50c23be8 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x9f507a2eada0844edc363d643b56fafaa5c6a142c5fef6b9f5fe26988273ca4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 1 | us-strikes-yemen-by-september-30 | US strikes Yemen by December 31? | 79,745,732 | 79,745,732 |
adb84ea98b07221bb7e6b685d4663cf2b38c7204 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x3507d3a6f4a6c49972549255accd4e49e0c3d039cac1b2927a876ca243684f6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.174066 | turnout-in-2025-honduran-general-election | Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? | 79,745,732 | 79,868,016 |
ab366d25a2af2c72f33a5cef8c50633bcdb721e4 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x947d1021c37d975fb9a2f81d9b7da2579dd6cbf18d9c1e147e7a8f95480cd01a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.425263 | 3-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | 79,763,883 | 79,763,883 |
f86edda718f4fb387a24d8258d0b1e70552b57d0 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xbf8d3c113339a9212ca0f263aede776db4a34762aedc006f70a8703215954863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.017152 | honduras-presidential-election | Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | 79,763,883 | 79,763,883 |
b6b97d21aa85fcec273ddbc0fe5b5eb037eef0ab | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x288210995023c1d6e80102b897f45e5aa8dee7b2ba838f9e8e0508c6ec7aeb21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.496063 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 1? | 79,763,883 | 79,782,328 |
603a4a4f53afbc2ba5ae95fdf050073f06bc792c | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xf42ebd4973dbae0fad37a0607930db2ebe62c5d5196c75c7f3ff6f716dfe4b83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | no | 0 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30? | 79,763,883 | 79,950,263 |
1347a23519a7273730cc8d2b60a8b5551f706e81 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x22e626b785354df961f8cfd33f04de94f4f754829c64a528eb9fd58398211a71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.835476 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,787,386 | 79,801,177 |
5529bab28e3e2e75c4e52ecfb58f927b58f0bf9f | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x761bd3e1cb91938afa149e84ab73f3604e852034a2f5ca8c829eb8020cad101e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 0.907533 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,787,386 | 79,801,219 |
3869fd704c77f9a00a284cf8b34b08583054463f | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x0e36217f0015745a5d762c1fd4fc90ea2b6fd9de13a51359a26d9bd71746844b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
c2c3855845fb182455bbdecf6c2e55b50e071d0a | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x0e845f477f4aca4799f77c79d4346cb04f0b5259fbe2bad7b6225cfc979f3933 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
ec6fd99e5be7c2cdef3f2220a5928b4ea4d5d3e7 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x5643164887403da23bf20c0f7ac21dcf56acba71e41772f4947eedda9cda59c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
3d2a3629b42fb0f6bcb80d04ab7c529a55ab73c6 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x6e49c30d1d8d5cc632a19cee18355a5b6fce100087222c86f448ec22003cc5e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
9e10498f98994926dc0338f6a6aeeeda407e8652 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x956f7d882bc43df13afeb4942eab9b9a6556a1e935ef0c69b427cb098c1f55fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-picture-nominations | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
ac1ff0ca7156ae0832ee1b913f58a52f7743e010 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x9a57495d16e7035c335dfb1e512b9851d49a2477b116dcc16fcfb2f3e05d4f51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
65a6513c03743097c209c1396eefcf8b4ec14f3e | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x9e6229937edd4063929e844f70b76d130ffffa9e91bfacae0fd238a480ad6d58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.47441127761845137
2. Question: Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? | Event: who-will-trump-talk-to-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
7ffe5b0a2a3c0e617045e4838746e86ae4cf38cf | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xa4fe504db468ac55c29bb59784df6c94e4c54977347b0565b2d1f972e47badfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? | Event: who-will-trump-talk-to-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m? | Event: zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office-higher-strikes | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.626168... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
893a3e3d266ae61a708da063c3943af2e0c84626 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xa8a34a66c3406ef7a4a981736f04530662572ed0ba686f805a28c3a17fcc785d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m? | Event: zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office-higher-strikes | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6261682242990654
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-londo... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,219 | 79,801,219 |
452282de634489696d9dd04d36cfbc6c03bc6ca2 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x18b0acb1ba94a9b784f4f54bba419bbfcba0024e0a6106dbcf80baf8bb533f84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,221 | 79,801,221 |
580296a5b18f66a750a14b30377d4b7aff3cd225 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x69e9621d2a3247b7bde3ec4ab5d245945e89f2354b651decf4dcb023642a2198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-november-21-novem... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,221 | 79,801,221 |
70e420c6d1eac1e3de2f2b61ed96a8435987bf98 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x6bc05dbf76802a3d64a3aad04a877bfec0e347f7ae76e714cad441e4be358920 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-november-21-november-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2112676056338028
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24? | Event: top-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,221 | 79,801,221 |
e60485310e55b967fa64d63c4e01f26b211b117d | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0xb494383beb8e77443d24b504e0b19e9ec252407074222fab67fa802448a92bb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24? | Event: top-performing-magnificent-7-company-week-of-november-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | Event: 1-free-app... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-25-december-2 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | 79,801,221 | 79,801,221 |
bea075021177c6628d8abaf3c46873f503181245 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x184396714b9954ab952822f16dd2d9bb8d098675572dbc4e13c8cd32dece9745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-no... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 30? | 79,801,223 | 79,801,223 |
e041216162eb4c542abf43868881ef001c511960 | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x2f9e02a797b43963fa2beb975799a2ab9d4cbbc990d5cc0282c6198fad082d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-supporti... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 2? | 79,801,223 | 79,801,223 |
afe5abc5e3d45a4e421870a890a8781da1c4377e | 0x03d0d65c51235e63805335b85ead75794830d647 | 0x664d177fb39be2f4e2d51ace4de71a7bc30d6b40d9fbd1235b4aa9c36c979d62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Event: oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-nominations | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will "Zootopia 2" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Event: zootopia-2-rotten-tomato... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 2? | 79,801,223 | 79,801,223 |
18370532e99fa9e631bd8c016855330bbcc285db | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x015affb8c8ec230137d46bdd71b98666f8f26214d51c8f1d99901b4bb5024dd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5?
Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | 78,637,390 | 78,637,390 |
72fa6c0a6a407af984110dfa024b45b874968088 | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0xfcad406d37ebef91d60fed32bbde773eb73138bd04f5dcb82623d33fd0596523 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5?
Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5
Predict the user's choice and confidence for... | no | 1 | bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | 78,649,194 | 78,649,194 |
7948ce1d156ecac5d066af0a922a8bd1c9d91dae | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0xf2427118735ca0620c052fa080552161de738993351916cd58a94de06f8886f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question:... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? | 78,649,198 | 78,649,198 |
716260fb0bfdb40802eabe4751f4c639727de9e4 | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x1fad65454b7166d1d602c75b46eed9bbd186617898f317e6760fc5f1bf3c8bd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 1 | bitcoin-above-on-november-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 6? | 78,771,414 | 78,771,414 |
c8bbede454f4becdd82a06eddb8614420917c86a | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x92e9f861a244c81ef2de54a511d49aef4640ee6afa27d7ddee5720964399f8ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | yes | 0.007237 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-7-november-14 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | 78,953,092 | 79,667,584 |
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