sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
739a0375d662f56adb1d2a26a7dc74ba4dc3e7f6 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x4e9dadbe6ad0df3990dc6560fb5cee145ad03fe78a2b7cd5b0d1bfbc2e78b7dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-ray-2025-10-05 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-05? | 77,305,870 | 77,305,870 |
4f5af5feb1ba538934784b9902c63e64567f0e27 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x7483281d92d3d80e45f00207afec4d238d23b2629830eb293b4e08b1d1849e02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | tur-sam-fen-2025-10-05 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-05? | 77,306,449 | 77,306,449 |
5c875c1247d2e0e382237f5ae46e67404998dc20 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x95621325cedc3c49585ed053d1aa00bdc0fc59eec6df98cd0a106aeb0ae97686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | tur-goz-iba-2025-10-05 | Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-10-05? | 77,306,449 | 77,306,449 |
c3319fc4a41f649c0f0e295fa192f97b951a84d3 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x2b6a5170c30fbeba1b2317cf98929a446af82e2dc2bc5e84a07959b35bc2edbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | 77,319,403 | 77,319,403 |
283dbf0822166d0daf51079224675f62a47f0f0a | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xdda2293ca461e643583c25d2403f5f337127a248c30bc39471e13d9e0a3e1467 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | mls-vwh-sje-2025-10-05 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? | 77,319,403 | 77,319,403 |
722239b7d79b1eb6e762f71d8afc10b989ae1520 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xe3e741833a48119c33c10c2836e144efcd8d25b10a89888358959a6fa74d828e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-che-liv-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-04? | E... | yes | 1 | fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,319,403 | 77,319,403 |
637ebb3a5e3044472ed41d220eadcd4812b20c89 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xf50ffbefee7f93b2b54199387f0be34c54ef66425fb01a9d5632a55c6dd9bdba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-che-liv-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-04? | Event: fl1-met-olm-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | mls-laf-atl-2025-10-05 | Will Los Angeles FC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw? | 77,327,002 | 77,327,002 |
09d0dd065fb7fd9ce7705a6f226450e0b412ec90 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x3086e66589e69925916161842ea23abd695d66f2d58ac4dce3901a81d33a8541 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-04? | Event: fl1-met-olm-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | C... | mavericks | 0 | nba-okc-dal-2025-10-06 | Thunder vs. Mavericks | 77,344,596 | 77,344,596 |
94de392cd2ceee0366041c403b2f57cb6698f7fd | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xcbf002c88aa60f21de3399bddf7cfda7f0b6490221db9d234f44a41f39465f8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? | Event: august-i... | brewers | 0 | mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-06 | Cubs vs. Brewers | 77,344,596 | 77,344,596 |
1909ca0a1b05f0e5ae0ec1b3e6e4a1c0c3156491 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xd1a9902dea95e864be03591a9247f44543fdd75ebd7b50b4c4de47c7285842b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-03? | Event: fl1-p... | nuggets | 0 | nba-den-tor-2025-10-06 | Nuggets vs. Raptors | 77,344,596 | 77,344,596 |
2f5dea961ba15730c0afb97e452b082739ef1d28 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xea12a5df76d3d1abf1a63eecf14c93c41fbbbdf5fc49211deaca6483c43e606e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-03? | Event: fl1-pfc-lor-2025-10-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04? | Event: lal-rea-v... | fernandez | 0 | wta-osaka-vs-fernandez-2025-10-06 | Wuhan Tennis Open: Naomi Osaka vs Leylah Fernandez | 77,344,596 | 77,344,596 |
e9f7e29f7d6f907aaa63cce11ae9be49621662e3 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x811df1e5331e63beaaf94b0154d616f7f592e815c0d447d8220f1038d7b6b2ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-03? | Event: fl1-pfc-lor-2025-10-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04? | Event: lal-rea-vil-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-10-04? | Event: fl1-aja-rcl-2025-10-04 | ... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06 | Bucks vs. Heat | 77,344,596 | 77,362,240 |
9f3e4356e57917a0117323a28f48b81f8d44d173 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x3082f662397416fb91faca5e78c5cff63ee6558d8db6e7eceaf7309594afb3fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04? | Event: lal-rea-vil-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-10-04? | Event: fl1-aja-rcl-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Lakers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-lal-gsw-2025-10-05 | Choice: lakers ... | kalinskaya | 0 | wta-sramkova-vs-kalinskaya-2025-10-06 | Wuhan Tennis Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Anna Kalinskaya | 77,344,596 | 77,367,452 |
431115a0706356d8f6625fc5f43ece15646e7c48 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x0ae57400abf2f2d15e9849ece5b19bdc285f12d8c34172efc2e7948dd1f3d554 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-10-04? | Event: fl1-aja-rcl-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Lakers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-lal-gsw-2025-10-05 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lyo-tou-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes... | griekspoor | 0 | atp-vacherot-vs-griekspoor-2025-10-08 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Tallon Griekspoor | 77,346,231 | 77,346,231 |
f2782ca2e216399bf4d5ec5e6270e1e78a934e0f | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xaa6fee9e49a94a34f2486d496e561718b415a2196d1124a5c67edbfe56142c2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lakers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-lal-gsw-2025-10-05 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lyo-tou-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes... | perricard | 0 | atp-perricard-vs-rune-2025-10-08 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Holger Rune | 77,346,231 | 77,370,898 |
0a299c9adb07d8fbd49f7d7f94204dc12d2deae3 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x104c3f54e3a390ca3b833b9270338482336d91a354cddf5d055d81b9cd4ab58a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lyo-tou-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05? | Event: sea-fio-rom-2025-10-05 |... | yes | 1 | arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Will Racing Club vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? | 77,362,240 | 77,362,240 |
c397f7b69ee6b2a575a015d5bb6051982dfb98d5 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xd2d242cf1af303ba170846c1fc30f0838042065102eafbd67a9af19f11a7d67d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05? | Event: sea-fio-rom-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-stu-hei-2025-10... | yes | 1 | arg-rie-vel-2025-10-06 | Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-06? | 77,362,264 | 77,362,264 |
b08165496bc431e92636956f687125740c1c7c91 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xe8fb52eb7baddb4b140cf53467e65d6c808bb734d0d4c5aa269148b75f1f8148 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05? | Event: sea-fio-rom-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-stu-hei-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | Event... | yes | 1 | arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2025-10-06? | 77,362,264 | 77,362,264 |
79abdcfc402e56fa6a421788264d38020f7d421f | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xec6b391ecbf8793e0d5ab44d76efda8b7c46e420451d4c9a3a6f04f2f5c45f57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-stu-hei-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Arouca vs. FC Famalicão end... | yes | 1 | arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-06? | 77,362,264 | 77,362,264 |
9de3082bbc7d474a97887a1cb8f6ce9a1ca4c1dc | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x61a9cca13c0d57c39f267dd145fa3787285f97e1f901afb6b91a5a1738ac1a86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Arouca vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw? | Event: por-aro-fam-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 20... | yes | 1 | caf-lby-cvi-2025-10-08 | Will Libya vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | 77,422,734 | 77,422,734 |
58eef51b54ad52ba3d38a17596bfb29e274748f7 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xa28d023cbacb6a3de185a226e490c4952cec896daabd0f7161fdc82d080671df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Arouca vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw? | Event: por-aro-fam-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the ... | yes | 1 | caf-eth-gbi-2025-10-08 | Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-08? | 77,422,734 | 77,422,734 |
a088eaf8139a603e627a1f0c49156edc40104f0d | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x41323bc0ced01ecb3064596cb2042a69367845b48a1dfbee7355e6c0a857ee3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sevil... | yes | 1 | caf-lby-cvi-2025-10-08 | Will Libya win on 2025-10-08? | 77,422,743 | 77,422,743 |
a75d8e5763eea0c33634ae4e37b767560854e12c | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x33d09267ec2286043a69f729c5f7474881908d634d2b657e5175f454b8786b7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | Event: f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-sev-bar-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2... | yes | 1 | caf-nig-cgo-2025-10-08 | Will Niger vs. Congo end in a draw? | 77,442,900 | 77,442,900 |
d1b58ef42f1ee3c8056588a1f82927b4573cc558 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x609890a204798c788a3773412c816e3578c3e7468aa4d97e30abfbcd69bb5110 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-sev-bar-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2025-10-05 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-hsv-mai-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | caf-nig-cgo-2025-10-08 | Will Congo win on 2025-10-08? | 77,442,900 | 77,442,900 |
cea9952c347d377974fd920cafe175965e3a2bd4 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x795a2605a57d67158528c0196f10986933bc48bdf69b8419e3561add9a3123f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2025-10-05 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-hsv-mai-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | Will Toronto FC win on 2025-10-08? | 77,449,026 | 77,449,026 |
68b7eb7b915d68a846c641da761079983b00ba0e | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xdd00a13c6b9d292dd086a20e7b7dbe1751600d18f339bd63a61c1405ae5bd3eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-hsv-mai-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-str-ang-2025-10-05... | no | 1 | mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-08? | 77,449,026 | 77,449,026 |
65407195d987c536ed76d13b130b2ec926181770 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xee52c877ad7fd247e03b99d2d13a63a260e2ebc6a6fb8eb76344d7e82db927a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-str-ang-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | ... | yes | 1 | mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | Will Los Angeles FC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw? | 77,449,026 | 77,449,026 |
45c4971b304dcebc745d4bc5d1f2c95690977c97 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x539ba8780379de549721333e71d3bb8346167bb3feab25360b619fe5dafeba38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-str-ang-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Napoli vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Event: sea-nap-gen-2025-10-05 |... | yes | 1 | caf-moz-gui-2025-10-09 | Will Guinea win on 2025-10-09? | 77,470,292 | 77,470,292 |
2547a39c00a341f314cb17dc692a00f4eb9594a1 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x412c2aeadb7bffc5fe0a0bb9abceae4376735bb8539002c1adb940892c5b1db6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Event: sea-nap-gen-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-rso-ray-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | caf-bot-uga-2025-10-09 | Will Botswana win on 2025-10-09? | 77,470,309 | 77,470,309 |
de0fc021e7bf9b05730b395a24120a0b2fbfc445 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xad066994eaa9ec2bc1af9ceb22d5645a5a9dcf1b9eb2940b07082b89e2a556ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Event: sea-nap-gen-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-rso-ray-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-05? | Event: tur-sam-fen-2025... | yes | 1 | fif-grn-vgb-2025-10-08 | Will British Virgin Islands win on 2025-10-08? | 77,470,309 | 77,470,309 |
ba6e5860b373e22a67fc18338643b6b04fd53d9d | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xbe549614d8901334fb0bbeeb7889d65a2982b0ab120ce5ef0a8d8eda936b7a09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-rso-ray-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-05? | Event: tur-sam-fen-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-10-05? | Event: tur-goz-ib... | no | 1 | fif-uzb-kuw-2025-10-09 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2025-10-09? | 77,470,309 | 77,470,309 |
91857f8662ce2d32f6894543681f2dd094db3b5a | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xf630055345bcc423ab1ca259649410d2bdef49849ef133b95d2ec5878c7bf502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-05? | Event: tur-sam-fen-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-10-05? | Event: tur-goz-iba-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-20... | no | 1 | uef-fin-lit-2025-10-09 | Will Finland win on 2025-10-09? | 77,470,309 | 77,470,309 |
bb23d964cc1ec2229202a98ff0bfe0178733a642 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x50475b6d16e3b4c2b90bf06a77dc0ae484ebb0343465742fe17c96513750a293 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-10-05? | Event: tur-goz-iba-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a... | no | 1 | fif-rom-mol-2025-10-09 | Will Romania win on 2025-10-09? | 77,474,327 | 77,474,327 |
10d516ca2170e586de245b6382ae17d416ae4684 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x3fbdd639a7e47c1671603f84b1bb1581f8045261c8ccc251a663f8459e5ad88a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? | Event: mls-vwh-sje-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-05? | ... | no | 1 | fif-eng-wal-2025-10-09 | Will England win on 2025-10-09? | 77,474,708 | 77,474,708 |
5e0abbd99e8f1c7c1f546f0c48345607382bf08a | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x21a802a328b74409ef3002d362a2bc236630d82e68024b1096261755bc94ce6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? | Event: mls-vwh-sje-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Los Angeles FC vs. Atlanta Unite... | no | 1 | fif-pol-nzl-2025-10-09 | Will Poland win on 2025-10-09? | 77,483,762 | 77,483,762 |
d002fd3ae54dd7348e5954e0c81bad1d58facc2f | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x7d8a1537a6a502847230dd9e2d53b9412afda60173e7c85ed638b8c80da509f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Los Angeles FC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-laf-atl-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-okc-dal-2025-... | yes | 1 | uef-cyp-bih-2025-10-09 | Will Cyprus win on 2025-10-09? | 77,483,762 | 77,483,762 |
1c3416cee892e3efaa329b12bbf1b30d7477ed7e | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x7ec0c7393615e956e850656ebaff02874d1940d9b45e01b51d49623e14d043b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Los Angeles FC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-laf-atl-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-okc-dal-2025-10-06 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-06 | Cho... | yes | 1 | uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Will Greece win on 2025-10-09? | 77,483,762 | 77,483,762 |
5f204d7568e1435cfd24a66da1752f874ccaa41d | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x5eb4a3ef799d224245962c07618db6b7da9a72490a534059adafefbd738c969a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-okc-dal-2025-10-06 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-06 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nuggets vs. Raptors | Event: nba-den-tor-2025-10-06 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 0.0
4.... | sinner | 0 | six-kings-slam-jannik-sinner-vs-stefanos-tsitsipas | Six Kings Slam: Sinner vs Stefanos | 77,641,505 | 77,641,505 |
49eddc6bf6fa73c28097d3fc6cc598316915b43d | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xc83135fb43ef32173fd1eea6239098383ff0f103a7ec0849eb00f8dd80100e20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-06 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nuggets vs. Raptors | Event: nba-den-tor-2025-10-06 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Naomi Osaka vs Leylah Fernandez | Event: wta-osaka-vs-fernandez-2025-10-06 ... | bonzi | 0 | atp-bonzi-royer-2025-10-15 | European Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Valentin Royer | 77,717,645 | 77,717,645 |
95195fd0caa0af7936b71b018aa9c30dd2850a6c | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x3c07930ab42c112dc7a7f2370f8c88dd46d55d6b20f135a2e3f45265d8e20b2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nuggets vs. Raptors | Event: nba-den-tor-2025-10-06 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Naomi Osaka vs Leylah Fernandez | Event: wta-osaka-vs-fernandez-2025-10-06 | Choice: fernandez | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06 ... | fritz | 0 | six-kings-slam-alexander-zverev-vs-taylor-fritz | Six Kings Slam: Zverev vs Fritz | 77,717,645 | 77,727,571 |
ec95a955e07792bdb40fcea17a8913af9f50137d | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x329bbfe57d55bcd6e957236e4648cc3f8cd15ee7f55d567d0634678b202dffac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Naomi Osaka vs Leylah Fernandez | Event: wta-osaka-vs-fernandez-2025-10-06 | Choice: fernandez | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Anna Kalinskaya... | kessler | 0 | wta-kessler-samsonova-2025-10-16 | Ningbo Open: McCartney Kessler vs Liudmila Samsonova | 77,730,593 | 77,751,106 |
d57b80e1d50ac8318a05b7ec6da6cd6a2a2c3037 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x1b2c1d975afe76c41c886d3064b87138f2fbab7d88db027b18025e861de080f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2025-10-06 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Anna Kalinskaya | Event: wta-sramkova-vs-kalinskaya-2025-10-06 | Choice: kalinskaya | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs ... | dzumhur | 1 | atp-dzumhur-augeraliassime-2025-10-16 | European Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Felix Auger-Aliassime | 77,775,779 | 77,775,779 |
94885c8009a4e8640b83234aedbaf069681f7345 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xf8a6f08e09aa3715906b59a79d1a14abf548a72565cdf8d0c47b13d1acdef4eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Anna Kalinskaya | Event: wta-sramkova-vs-kalinskaya-2025-10-06 | Choice: kalinskaya | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Tallon Griekspoor | Event: atp-vacherot-vs-griekspoor-2025-10-08 | Choice: griekspoor | Confid... | yes | 1 | six-kings-slam-winner-358 | Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 Six Kings Slam? | 77,775,779 | 77,775,779 |
145e421154ec633b0da404e9a8f1ffcd6777047a | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x80838ab094bf10258693664b803ff7e74830f64ee27f13a241b796c260fdb40d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Tallon Griekspoor | Event: atp-vacherot-vs-griekspoor-2025-10-08 | Choice: griekspoor | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Holger Rune | Event: atp-perricard-vs-rune-2025-10-08 | Choice: perricard | C... | cirstea | 0 | wta-golubic-cirstea-2025-10-17 | Japan Women's Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sorana Cirstea | 77,777,159 | 77,777,159 |
3fd69b4f994712e94a7bdcb4869fb799f4015f4e | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x875b43f98d30df3f904e704823deff1dbc3decc85203f842a52eea25e0dbf393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Holger Rune | Event: atp-perricard-vs-rune-2025-10-08 | Choice: perricard | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? | Event: arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | maple leafs | 0 | nhl-nyr-tor-2025-10-16 | Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5) | 77,777,159 | 77,791,780 |
2d99ff0242bb85cd70cbf00a9bdcdda6059d52f8 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x8fcfec806b601eb1dad21bb6821aaa72d3173715585da5cfb0cab49368336c82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? | Event: arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-06? | Event: arg-rie-vel-2025-10-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CS Independiente Rivadavia ... | musetti | 0 | atp-musetti-perrica-2025-10-17 | European Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 77,790,595 | 77,790,595 |
f0ea56a078806e6439513f35844a46fd1bb2d97c | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x5f8da4dd9f759f75412252aead0c03e888686fe7ea91dad9e5833a3ef58df236 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-06? | Event: arg-rie-vel-2025-10-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2025-10-06? | Event: arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-06? | Event:... | down | 0 | amzn-up-or-down-on-october-17-2025 | Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on October 17? | 77,793,310 | 77,793,310 |
03181ae84aa44fb317138d832b7b06d75f5ff008 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x7d2b8e2f4b2919aa47eb57ffa9b49fb50c9840ff581fe24892736ca7269a1e18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2025-10-06? | Event: arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-06? | Event: arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Libya vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Event: ... | down | 0 | aapl-up-or-down-on-october-17-2025 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 17? | 77,799,807 | 77,799,807 |
16be32c266f1547833fb8e97353c1f15416f6004 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x18d21bcb26fcbd2ed77259440248e2e0c53d24e9518b05e979b102ba6adc3f24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-06? | Event: arg-rac-riv1-2025-10-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Libya vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Event: caf-lby-cvi-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-eth-gbi-2025-10... | down | 0 | spx-up-or-down-on-october-17-2025 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 17? | 77,806,886 | 77,806,886 |
eea02b00c6d047f37c018afeb70e679dd986bfab | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xf9644fbfafef9064bb6d65333b39b3f1c18eb9110c6b1f8f8871255622c8ef42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Libya vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Event: caf-lby-cvi-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-eth-gbi-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Libya win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-lby-cvi-2025-10-08 | C... | down | 0 | meta-up-or-down-on-october-17-2025 | Meta (META) Up or Down on October 17? | 77,806,886 | 77,806,886 |
bdc35d8f69f568b1fb5b9c9c9648ba28ec783b6f | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x16ab13b0fc6e0930512026a0752b0aae1c3b63881aad10bc2107ffa2a1568d67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-eth-gbi-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Libya win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-lby-cvi-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niger vs. Congo end in a draw? | Event: caf-nig-cgo-2025-10-08 | Choice... | down | 0 | msft-up-or-down-on-october-20-2025 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 20? | 77,933,783 | 77,933,783 |
c4da5e540a30d924c8546688eea42f2a6be155a9 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xe3fdaf9847abe96bdd126d8778bb7b076cbe33cc493306ddf627fde9f74f2c6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Libya win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-lby-cvi-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Niger vs. Congo end in a draw? | Event: caf-nig-cgo-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Congo win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-nig-cgo-2025-10-08 | Choice: y... | down | 0 | nvda-up-or-down-on-october-20-2025 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 20? | 77,933,783 | 77,933,783 |
3767f660249d41c2192891740e297fb89ac51877 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x65e38e13c4abaea4597eec68c65e245b8b0a48cbbc2600a282b0d32b31d46fc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Niger vs. Congo end in a draw? | Event: caf-nig-cgo-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Congo win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-nig-cgo-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toronto FC win on 2025-10-08? | Event: mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | Choi... | down | 0 | aapl-up-or-down-on-october-22-2025 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 22? | 78,011,793 | 78,011,793 |
9d116b94943d4b4f9372b33535d4de0878063715 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x1e8338f14ea5efddeac95b7fa18130f23685e170b9e83850b5c964a05f6b972b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Congo win on 2025-10-08? | Event: caf-nig-cgo-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toronto FC win on 2025-10-08? | Event: mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-08? | Event: mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | C... | down | 0 | ndx-up-or-down-on-october-23-2025 | Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on October 23? | 78,053,314 | 78,078,473 |
e648133f1a3ad539110c03e83f853972ff45c192 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x219437747f52103df5c299f7d7edb2440a353b5980ed5da9538b58a19e9de266 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Toronto FC win on 2025-10-08? | Event: mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-08? | Event: mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Los Angeles FC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-laf... | down | 0 | googl-up-or-down-on-october-23-2025 | Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 23? | 78,054,993 | 78,087,065 |
20c417956ff90a4c8d6ba59d6451540fc72d8858 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x55dc5c8e9fbc948affcc93a294b1e89b512a4f526ccd8cab9b551d6aab5b6560 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25?
Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | 75,646,240 | 75,646,240 |
e2cd381101e48c5e9844feb6bf28f4029bcfa43e | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xc325cd320a738f3c25d475e2853aae7efa6653b80d42cff75d1438f326ea955c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27?
Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | 75,646,240 | 75,646,240 |
522b30061d1b3b79bc73f2567a6a94dc811e90df | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x8c23db093748e489754bbb44030c5a7e59d82907553e73278c350916e0dd9ee1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25?
Event: ethereum-... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-august-25 | Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | 75,646,240 | 75,647,951 |
f48105c60187c71c344179a0cd359002ab33d3bc | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xa71cb0f7d803c4995091e935686d8c14d8d96094d95c85e866cc653cc8ae4fd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Bitcoin above $110K on August 25? | 75,646,240 | 75,647,979 |
ec3ccfc7fb3cfa25ce6db02b0aa366b146f82277 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x07765790775e001e7fc7ba31dc82954e989ba6ae713fe37340964f34b25d5752 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august | Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August? | 75,646,240 | 75,667,214 |
dc32fa93d12df0a40196ede9da8715ac3741ca36 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x139f763b365d592ab9fcea417196d5e2414d059f144e2388bbf34b230841326d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | yes | 0.163876 | bitcoin-price-on-august-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 25? | 75,646,240 | 75,667,214 |
f2b6b34df80e66069675995fd95601cf1c1e4c29 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x6b31ab4cf0af73268ff9c8c64721b72de2992c6e84b7297ee1441fe85be19e63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-august-27 | Bitcoin above $108K on August 27? | 75,663,400 | 75,663,400 |
65cd7d2b6ce47b4bc22397daf5e8cab127671a52 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x93c395fa8d87a55ff7a501940f04b15569f5bb2f079ec072bebcea439f09c1c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-august-26 | Ethereum Up or Down on August 26? | 75,663,400 | 75,688,089 |
b5a3171324aeb29930ca54d12859847a83966303 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xe515ad316d66e062000ac90547833cf7c3e497b705bc0d894824572ac6f109a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-26 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26? | 75,663,400 | 75,688,089 |
d20ad87241dbc11a2cdd58d19a9a1e442ffce359 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x0ad3ea870fd4875843848f802d1597e1c56ef8e631d9dfdfc295b2a190aa7a5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-august-27 | Bitcoin above $112K on August 27? | 75,663,400 | 75,728,355 |
725c23beed5a62eaf529bc843e7d61efccfa2207 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x985464d2e612951b2e033effb612c84f8b6ee205d0220ac2e8807dbfb93999fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Ethereum above $4400 on August 27? | 75,663,400 | 75,748,421 |
01a59a84791b50e6792153b300df1923d3c470b0 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x30374deca4f59478af6d8cdfe875070a30e5e63961dbcb200df758b55223945a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-august-27 | Bitcoin above $110K on August 27? | 75,663,400 | 75,748,442 |
e30c851208abb425d101a9ccb979458834e67985 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x42821c7f1f02e51892ff07ee2f9e50287b5f267ca0a5525ec8d08800c650dbdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | yes | 0.157969 | bitcoin-price-on-august-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on August 27? | 75,663,400 | 75,748,442 |
1db1163933aca84e027f815e1f4b84bf172c7941 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x251b637116525f1c2688dc26572eca92b34c1e9ea322f56556ec7fb58bd8cb24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | down | 0.093504 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-august-27 | Ethereum Up or Down on August 27? | 75,718,597 | 75,728,355 |
058ce07a63e21940e9243fd6a1b66b26eb45ee26 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x0cbedc9ee86b6cf1b4516f848649d47c3ce8e5290289ec9883843693aeec3832 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Ethereum above $4600 on August 27? | 75,718,597 | 75,748,442 |
4c062e5486539825184c8422dfbb207268d63ce9 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xd015339af5d72a6340e170fa78f2ec9b4cd6a2bb2e4620aaa7576f1dc7852012 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | down | 0.10296 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-27 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 27? | 75,718,597 | 75,748,442 |
a0264a4d3fa82427c61a58e9efaa4828a6d7bd65 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xea42b6bcc1d5947a1cb2d04153f80ec6b1ec6b0c2d0dafc5f5b2480315dffc13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 27? | 75,748,421 | 75,748,421 |
917acbb5297a69e073e4dc09c21a00ff60dbe0a5 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xbc07da0b4e9f9ac5bfb130b23aaa05e6c32a7b04c89324f85de53356aa31bc85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | yes | 0.150917 | bitcoin-price-on-august-29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110K on August 29? | 75,748,437 | 75,814,001 |
bb46181f7800e6585a5b6ce9ccdbc512acab3d8c | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x317fe4671b0d5547304a2055f175303286c9e1d6ebf96f31d2e530f990ec1c1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-august-29 | Bitcoin above $112K on August 29? | 75,748,437 | 75,814,029 |
6e5e43d316770ed9b23b3224c6bf0970fbe9dcab | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xdc97c363ccea9f4ec61f6311c2e3df5bbfdf037bbcc66e893138ae53897d9a42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-august-29 | Bitcoin above $114K on August 29? | 75,748,437 | 75,814,032 |
68ae1909025ef5cf1e2756b63608676ba3b318d4 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xe6ead652d7ede204dc0e31462ab5e1126b12686b41c456314c5c6da407ff2e11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-august-29 | Ethereum above $4200 on August 29? | 75,799,455 | 75,813,977 |
c7259b4103c114c29b406e85bf1f762f30ba8ebd | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x5bfec0ee675a4d9862a211d07e6ac6a9591b9fe32eb5faa545b8777b90b5da40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-august-29 | Bitcoin above $116K on August 29? | 75,799,455 | 75,814,033 |
e50f365b8944e18b5429c22dd146c8760f0433a5 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xa9246caef763e6aa1ddc8a544889e959c595d40082b2a18d5caaaf2d264a41d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | yes | 0.000026 | bitcoin-above-on-august-29 | Bitcoin above $108K on August 29? | 75,799,456 | 75,813,977 |
3a9d5997426ff6998ebc6dc70ac3d0c079c5d63f | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0x0c4823aafbe6bf931478b1fe3b30a1437663233e22b4492aebe7b0ac457623e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august | Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August? | 75,813,977 | 75,813,977 |
9eee80764f99dc71ea6416b757d062d41d6fd5d7 | 0x23986785eeb7153a2ce18f351394f378699fe70f | 0xee5cf157af289cce226e93fbece9c21bddd7c7310ac5e730a172eb9333fe4935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4200 on August 27? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on August 25? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-... | no | 0.302295 | ethereum-price-on-august-29 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4200 on August 29? | 75,813,977 | 75,814,084 |
c70ca3b166df65f5ff675d600b6440e3e368b589 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x3dcaa06cd75939028abd0f8af242bd9c4bebe0c3510a6fdb0bcf69a2eb0ecc55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25?
Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | 76,451,237 | 76,451,237 |
92c24747960594663dbb874d05554b340eb75537 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x4da838ed194b70cc51ef6f89c51adaf8791cc5c49c7e81372bd9d0902ecdf0d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24?
Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice":... | no | 1 | fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | 76,451,237 | 76,451,237 |
2af46d7e3a53cfe15dd144a012e163854d71b513 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x31af31894a2b165476162cac942ae00ce521683397ee3218e1120446838115fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28?
Event: uel-kps-mid-2... | yes | 1 | uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | 76,451,238 | 76,451,238 |
d269bf48fed955e884cb19d72ffb5a3a2684b741 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xb6791d8ca670e9c71f640e7a6e01d41f913881e75a8f340de826b75317d08250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-24? | 76,866,294 | 76,866,294 |
f7dcd2fd4a5381563afcb3ab4239f6824716a2e1 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x8bf8ce3ff5adaa41c1b1cf0cbff93708b1f8e94d9b5a9db64387e90a32133aa9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | mex-asl-ame-2025-09-24 | Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-09-24? | 76,890,977 | 76,890,977 |
980910b23058c8979effb78a51c412b0ad0d4ebb | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xa3c49efda709d48f4e615746c700cf6e9e6271d1683244919afa296d5320393e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | lal-osa-elc-2025-09-25 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-09-25? | 76,908,519 | 76,908,519 |
c83b398e08b9d4329d2ba4132a45252314ab1e29 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x3ee3305e8c31ffc7122db03f98dce9ee30e2b05285abaa5ee71f14e1f35d52a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Will Galatasaray vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 77,126,807 | 77,126,807 |
56e6120eba5a7ec2c7f848632394db096c222c94 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x563b1fbfc5d76f4041ac344f49ae66579b000f94ef28b1377a4249182d6342ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-bod-tot-2025-09-30 | Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-09-30? | 77,126,807 | 77,126,807 |
4672e715b60ec9a20d4a69626dd3c19b06b845f9 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x5caa6961730f34037355a369c34c73f1c6abf15ea199efce4753bdd5538d4323 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | arg-new-est-2025-09-30 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-30? | 77,126,807 | 77,126,807 |
534adac15d5c1812ab145e74ef715d0547f79391 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xd72a5356a729a4a2d73699752edf60fe3192c044195e46203cedbd3d994073a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Will Chelsea vs. Benfica end in a draw? | 77,126,807 | 77,126,807 |
9bc6123b72eefe460f140bfa0935c97b678047d9 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xf1c9bfe8600a99ec54c31d0dc23b09896cb6dd694f586c0ca0498f20e9ae322c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-mad-fra-2025-09-30 | Will Atletico Madrid vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? | 77,126,807 | 77,126,807 |
9d07f220acd5610a0c9fc541044584e5d031631b | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x0d3b02928225924cb83ed5af59e60060fe333569b01302395a4233234ea67275 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-01? | 77,162,317 | 77,162,317 |
722bd79f62c4b5b6fa12616f251e34a7a20da470 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x6afbe23cff78c441b6f6109f2613c1abbe60fec573199fcfd3ef57f74c3e0d91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Athletic Bilbao end in a draw? | 77,162,317 | 77,162,317 |
07a360b39bac3b4d1048c328a037e8c030898d48 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xac5245b61a1cdce350ddf49e5bf620ce7756b50e9e712fc1034cfaa2756a3e3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-b04-psv-2025-10-01 | Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-10-01? | 77,162,317 | 77,162,317 |
c862aa518e3069586bd7a6725c4b3507e6bdb2c6 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xe4d2287217961c2d8d37773d21ddb9b82b4da3a5abf94a2fd233025269a2a48f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Will Barcelona vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? | 77,162,317 | 77,162,317 |
6bc2317562b550a4ee7aab6ece3ff1fdef3f46d3 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xd9998615aab36b0b75fc7b96854931c6b3fed8503330b40e652f85f0acd54449 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | uel-bol-scf-2025-10-02 | Will Sport-Club Freiburg win on 2025-10-02? | 77,201,908 | 77,201,908 |
872048c85bf75a2a6479648c47304269f9b934d8 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x07a36db54be57b4356d09ef4fa280f7182968bbf6888023741a02eed4b4afcf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | mex-atl-jua-2025-10-03 | Will Atlas FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? | 77,249,560 | 77,249,560 |
0e8ee49fe67eb2bb2aa668d8a9a24efba8691a8f | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x58773417b088dfa9010ba46b85b6fe94266cfd32cceca2a7cfcd906c2103e609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | mex-nec-pac-2025-10-03 | Will Club Necaxa vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? | 77,249,560 | 77,249,560 |
5d30d99eb623206c693f20f7bf53c13b72d4188c | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x9f72f52589a50b4fb21316eabf1e9b5e0bab773c75a1a6eb70b30184e5d8b7ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | sea-ver-sas-2025-10-03 | Will Verona vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | 77,249,560 | 77,249,560 |
0b86b9ce8a1e6bcb5cccde42d790a1d845b7e547 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xc1ef3a40238a23936ae9faee1b9e304c4b7b1598a3f69cb834436e1af4f0cb70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | fl1-pfc-lor-2025-10-03 | Will Paris FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? | 77,249,560 | 77,249,560 |
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