sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
874255003b34879ee977388d76627cb057f470f7 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xc393786729c773b83f1bb00f00563dc1b9d2247bdfecab1f7d5276aaa9049e20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | lal-osa-get-2025-10-03 | Will Osasuna vs. Getafe end in a draw? | 77,249,560 | 77,249,560 |
bc952fadf115aed0c071477689414f9fb3033e09 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x08144b2cb16d11a7654febda8ba82a1353f44852a4fe07d27616f783ca92a4ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-19? | 77,250,595 | 77,250,595 |
c9b50f4517efa537b3fef22134f74f971b5fd965 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x2a466b96d679bc94db4338f8b0c21aaf640cd5cdffb1908762861bf81f0929c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | lal-bar-rso-2025-09-28 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? | 77,250,595 | 77,250,595 |
ab156920a6e868e8781050e71a686814a31c5c42 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x7bdfa2d7ae3b82c5e4a06827cb4903c2d2eeeb0fc9a0c433db26e3ea79791c6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | 77,250,595 | 77,250,595 |
e70c0a412159730d742ce55357f76eddfeeb33a5 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xa7b32fb6c5e68febe779768b173e1cc1b6a3d6395b3018e0e1f0ca15087d4536 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | mex-san-asl-2025-09-21 | Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-09-21? | 77,250,595 | 77,250,595 |
ce50d54bd1378b5e5cc99dd824190702f12fef9d | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xa95bda98964f533dafdeee3ad0788cffaf3b1f12ce07bfa37265c940e30696ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19? | 77,250,595 | 77,250,595 |
81583476d41911e96fc4c73fcc02188b8973837f | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x0b257754c84d9003169e57853c0a673c2714ff455b06bd064cd438bfec5b1011 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | uel-bol-scf-2025-10-02 | Will Bologna vs. Sport-Club Freiburg end in a draw? | 77,250,597 | 77,250,597 |
dab8ead06b28d320b60b39fdc55285fe7d15e9a7 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x0fbe64fe4976a489e0f3b9f2d172b2ab7617e876bcad85db6b30d98b9d8ea59f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-mon-mac-2025-10-01 | Will Monaco vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 77,250,597 | 77,250,597 |
d8e1027f5f487c05a7dec3d9bc4e8055ba192e5a | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x654c900ae76de13537a89265450d6609fa17908cc49b0ee933c4b1e02e18a7cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-bod-tot-2025-09-30 | Will Bodo/Glimt vs. Tottenham Hotspur end in a draw? | 77,250,597 | 77,250,597 |
0672e45278fbc35ece104d28441d3a17718f0c69 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x7d83e48c04951e68c6c0d42883192022635b748208d31a4febff6e51de874bab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | sea-ver-sas-2025-10-03 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-10-03? | 77,250,597 | 77,250,597 |
c9b413dc6e336b354dd09f73b213369bb72fb565 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x835e31515768c1d9bf8835f81b5769c1015a4f3c7b0a23ea1acad0495c7477af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 |... | no | 1 | ucl-kar-kob-2025-10-01 | Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01? | 77,250,597 | 77,250,597 |
92b6f9ddd594c18af6d409bfe7b1c1a8b1d1fd1c | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xd85f0ab415d4af277100b6f8d550bf760129bcd9942a49453d77b0af69fb6c39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-24? | Event: fl1-hac-rcl-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24 | ... | no | 1 | ucl-b04-psv-2025-10-01 | Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw? | 77,250,597 | 77,250,597 |
242dc5b2cd3c26d135b6b8856c89cac7382338f5 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xf72fdbbd1844ae6d1d9cef8a0a7795a3b46582fb2fe784c998e8cfa21a5287e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KuPS win on 2025-08-28? | Event: uel-kps-mid-2025-08-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mex-asl-ame-2025-09-24 | Ch... | yes | 1 | ere-spa-twe-2025-09-19 | Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-09-19? | 77,250,598 | 77,250,598 |
17a13f2cc45e919937c297b864b0b3fc5b2b4af0 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x014f6ad0f60bd1edd9f722db5e29dc34eb3e6d13d724e5e6fab14c86c908b185 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mex-asl-ame-2025-09-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-09-25? | Event: lal-osa-elc-2025-09-25 |... | no | 1 | fl1-aja-rcl-2025-10-04 | Will AJ Auxerre vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? | 77,311,214 | 77,311,214 |
78211ed54c1d7fa0b7d421abb5a8023a03d04659 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x0ac16bebf04339fe95061a6f0551a7370a2e70b77b0b35cd7cfd6beb915d83a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-09-24? | Event: mex-asl-ame-2025-09-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-09-25? | Event: lal-osa-elc-2025-09-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: ucl-gal-liv... | no | 1 | por-nac-mor-2025-10-04 | Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-10-04? | 77,311,214 | 77,311,214 |
641679a89b72d542beb2546aec1a456df06b3fa3 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x6c8aa173880ad6e5b7044699b9cb8647faec9e4161616ff39c570aeb2c65924b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-09-25? | Event: lal-osa-elc-2025-09-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Galatasaray vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-bod-tot-2025-0... | no | 1 | sea-ata-com-2025-10-04 | Will Como win on 2025-10-04? | 77,311,214 | 77,311,214 |
18c565611dc8768d70648499e7f72bee3dbe98cd | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0x9352737783e83e3f1cddf4a582fbecd56530c686daed87966db39f8fce675cba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-bod-tot-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-30? | Event: arg... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-lev-2025-10-04 | Will Real Oviedo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | 77,311,214 | 77,311,214 |
83fa819294e4990b7ee7f1091acd667dcc1afc15 | 0x2408e632cf3199403dc7dc37c9fe1d658b2d9de9 | 0xa4151fc2c4c3b45ba897929c4b61235e1018251d5efd0a7d4f5660bf284ba06c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-bod-tot-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-30? | Event: arg-new-est-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea vs. Benfica end in a draw? | Event: ucl-cfc-b... | no | 1 | lal-gir-val-2025-10-04 | Will Girona vs. Valencia end in a draw? | 77,311,214 | 77,311,214 |
9aa641a01c1297bb6d7134b7c74c69540752a281 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x071b5bccfa91a6dc52a8283a104d3aaff2ea22ed5a20b295ab7204326f366572 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2?
Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | 61,883,202 | 61,883,202 |
0a341eac5d6b5febf8249e240dbdcf454d32d469 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xf7031fb3175348aa18121e53b6854b220bbc93ed40155aee826bea0084d2da97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2?
Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points
Predict the user's choice and confidence fo... | no | 1 | nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | 61,925,179 | 61,925,179 |
1cc88a92e02d7bf43adebb2d978461f3b2d3ed08 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x588b99ba0d56cade765ad69392dcfccd1bed23ab050635bd67455ad47a8d0210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question... | no | 1 | nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Will there be 651-675 points scored NFL Week 2? | 61,925,184 | 61,925,184 |
0df7538f7c1f4a19ba152d14170cf8a818199346 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xb20072387cd12bc73f3a6fd30fdd5aa1644c8f72f958803d90fc05c51db0ac49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | 61,996,573 | 61,996,573 |
b3c8c0234f679bbd389eda75f9f1f098c09a97df | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x6ec7241d69f82c4bef15aef7fed788f5c36d85694a576de999ad09a067f3f497 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,164,160 | 62,164,160 |
6511db88e61a47287e821377d20c90a7128dd6c5 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x9462d15cc91e1bb685b128d96efc67d5ad2bfcf6fbe66e3d5a1a4216c7b932e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | yes | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,164,165 | 62,164,165 |
f8d3afa1f941b1aab2c4bcf19c66f807e94feef8 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x245c92306b9775655fd9fce06829f7872bb988275b0bc00bc6b4bc15fb35e652 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | nfl-week-3-how-many-points | Will there be 751-775 points scored NFL Week 3? | 62,207,858 | 62,207,858 |
6484e9e19842cece7834d2000259911bf837cd8e | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xe7d096c33bff4d81499aebb1fb21e83445482d69461b980bafcb2e8a6e1faa5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-vp-debate-get | Will the VP debate have 65m or more viewers? | 62,567,493 | 62,567,493 |
38294739c3dde0b2d37bc67245ff05f5860d289d | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xf4ce22d993861fa476eb3eafbd6ae71741f8d481c1387138ee9b424c1de51f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | joker-folie-deux-cinemascore | Will CinemaScore give 'Joker: Folie à Deux' a B? | 62,684,776 | 62,684,776 |
6e76d4d77c3ea58ff14521f833226da35f8f2760 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xcd27eb02f8ea96359db2be8a5c5184421f90be598bf28fdab3893240e97832ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Will Israel strike Iran on Monday? | 62,803,975 | 62,803,975 |
a7b4645f1176cddb457221f79babc18ceeeb79ae | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x709006d1b05859c5629845b3ec3f64e3496cd0af24b28c464e16b69da844414b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | yes | 1 | milton-landfall-at-what-category | Will Milton make landfall as a category 4? | 62,851,191 | 62,851,191 |
91a4443f15e145853e710c56a1f8b837e56130d9 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x8540502d22a63edb72be7680ee1968e0f06ef1ebf8f46c45266a67ddede01db8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | yes | 1 | milton-landfall-at-what-category | Will Milton make landfall as a category 3? | 62,851,191 | 62,851,191 |
84b9aee07b1700044999af5a592e3c3191aebeab | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xe92fb17880e1bc7ff13f25f5bfef59aca43691f5800fda43b4cec5e982fcc814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | milton-landfall-at-what-category | Will Milton make landfall as a category 5? | 62,851,191 | 62,851,191 |
9c71da13974ff526424c5960dc851f32c77d4d33 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xa608d565e6f533a6b2b61c6de07c37c2d00d4b326cab194da4b7e5b7fa6c641d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-the-trump-x-rogan-podcast-be | Will Trump x Rogan interview last 150-180 min? | 63,505,306 | 63,505,306 |
a6993b7bacafac569ce73844992cb28298635f31 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x4d848bab2da79b9ff7f2b2b0d9ddb048bb1fb47e9f782887f16e91d27de41279 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | yes | 1 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | 64,104,112 | 64,104,112 |
2e7dd24fd3e959466f3dcd2bc5a1fd1b40a156c5 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x5beef21349bc4c714fdaa17078c9af6f859f924572e665e7ab086a92e450cba2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-billboard-1-pop-star-of-the-century | Will Rihanna be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? | 64,491,608 | 64,491,608 |
3a99330d3c1c21415f9736ab519249bd99b045db | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x03b6d4251a7121e66cce2990e93ccab14084d69e768dedcafd9e8b72743c06de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | gladiator-ii-opening-weekend-box-office | Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend? | 64,735,357 | 64,735,357 |
822917a0fcc02036a2d7558d7c0b1d1caadca60b | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x546aefea4b12e037e742d97313c6eeb0a3fad8641fa7d3af7a843d661eff62e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | gladiator-ii-opening-weekend-box-office | Will Gladiator II gross between $53-60m on opening weekend? | 64,735,357 | 64,735,357 |
9e6fcee1516f42cd513d2eea2e8f42e6e84dfb08 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xdbb705a2b7001a04227722ad1baf3a0bf98b0f5caf3d6b64c09fe07645ffc997 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | gladiator-ii-opening-weekend-box-office | Will Gladiator II gross less than $53m on opening weekend? | 64,735,357 | 64,735,357 |
8bafbf6f562704264cd4fc86736365d3e5aab23a | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x05786e6d52d97ec9634b465588b94966b64636968789517d475ab27be4367d84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,410,387 | 65,410,387 |
e451f9f04e12aec415f09fa190c916601cf5f10d | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x5a3a787704c11ae925566b5193f1ad3ea61c2aa8eea6514e14e9152a4feb0f7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,282,054 | 66,282,054 |
e45a49b80d6fd71c5cb70224ff704652f1d5a453 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x1e3e76730591049a2bf214bcf90fbd9eb3875884efc0ce1f36876b0c6dec7b7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | yes | 1 | who-will-replace-jd-vance-as-ohio-senator | Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator? | 67,003,497 | 67,003,497 |
f3f80a0f974dd85c5337e21e9a9bc534dc0f50fc | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x2a61d8c119b55a6e02fb0882bd4caf5add77f44db7fa2db1c0caeede45eefef5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week | Will Donald Trump issue less than 25 executive orders in his first week? | 67,073,806 | 67,073,806 |
7e2b1e3225efdb4e36f28b6e3627749e21f6381f | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xf673a79c4f31fa1d006b4071f6ed6b79031e49d6ab382896ad867e4120e8b355 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | next-cowboys-head-coach | Will the Cowboys hire Steve Sarkisian as their next head coach? | 67,128,414 | 67,128,414 |
712133b453296517205250e4d22202ad07cefe6f | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x1b950c08a2155617b0065eb927825207323d20373f8e4daccd1ec914487f9a36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-lower-options | Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week? | 67,272,961 | 67,272,961 |
6272053ae1383303ff1e0afc292447557cafc56c | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x7f6dfeff7129c589470b97d9413a3c7540c222b9c8a64d31ad7bd802bdd00a92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-lower-options | Will Donald Trump issue 31-33 executive orders in his first week? | 67,272,961 | 67,272,961 |
f9d6eaacecb6841c0035685141e1efe088f4f2e5 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xc22f1be552b546381c1f9a26c864dc423659a67836bbdbcca360cd1b7e8e627b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week | Will Donald Trump issue 75-99 executive orders in his first week? | 67,272,961 | 67,272,961 |
eada0dec284c4302f9133ac204cc1a1f36a66cce | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0x76d66699ededf2a25ed5633bf892c30b648603e3c2c6cf09b1b98d49cd0711a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,431,898 | 67,431,898 |
65fb2c607c122040e58615a44e4bcf32e8fdf97c | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xcc5a06c3b79f72f1abfd6bb4e360f627180fcb723a42f273ee625c4d6e65d241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-week | Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | 67,628,066 | 67,628,066 |
6b2c3e71a3d3c788eb4d037f45fbf9883bd68dd6 | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xd6bc7b4a6fc7ac7b053362dbee482ce4123dcc453a486ab40d58e3a7247c46dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-attorney-general | Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? | 67,628,066 | 67,628,066 |
acc5886defeaa8336c67eb56b030b167aafcbd4d | 0x241fc82ef4181e6c0727d878621c21f036ee3143 | 0xf915f9b15b31c463e1b11d8b15cca3748f884a0456c46ea0ca068ad4f7aeb7f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rams vs. Cardinals be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL Week 2? | Event: nfl-week-2-how-many-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will there ... | no | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-rfk-as-secretary-of-hhs | Will 55 or more Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? | 67,907,103 | 67,907,103 |
0d6018d245f7ff61683ea1dccc17db583ba2015e | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-decision-in-september
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,576,601 | 76,576,601 |
86fa0a8ffaad1186509363ddfe38f2c2b1ef79b4 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-decision-in-september
Predict the user's choice a... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,576,606 | 76,576,606 |
aae1e884cd15cb7f72b0a95c336b35d459bf958d | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x17414b5654467cc23ac6e5cba7ecf87952ea12ea08a8e09fbfef5f3b218e2bab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | yes | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,525,879 | 78,525,879 |
c42551e93c855bdb15b46e297bade9bcdb2261dc | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x20d4b4186dd1ef583b767f162ea48e2a32a009399212255eb406739c22dfa6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,964 | 78,609,964 |
87a87748fd1d8e1afb280d5a331ade06d972543e | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x751ca25043da33cab8c9142c0172ce955bd4a8bb6a162c4f87ddaa83325bf21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,964 | 78,609,964 |
354096cb9c7c0122b9eb4383f1ec8e60b7fca74f | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xd135370c2eee3f4955ab11ad15ab0af01cd9eb9650af2871a1f68718c9d6d48d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ucl-tot-kob-2025-11-04 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,964 | 78,609,964 |
a0177bad1aa470ebb5f122f30a47e704fd6ea47c | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,609,964 | 78,609,964 |
a2833a86ca796bd98ffb4fde0dc0180b63ae2cd8 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x3eb22a031e853ce7d3490c4857db026b78a7f968032d8de6effd9d9f1ade6897 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | 78,610,698 | 78,610,698 |
c85e45bebe90f65fabc7ad9ce5e1281dc1f77940 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xe97c7eef896676447cd42a27a18592a520c87863d90512efb4a0a2cd1f477413 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | uef-bul-geo-2025-11-18 | Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-18? | 79,215,246 | 79,215,246 |
0d72899cf6fedc4edfb1ef275f38d9b547fc92de | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xec400c2ddf7a911e1f2bc39054674475b39eb4094dc9b0b5c7e07e199308dda8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.999882 | uef-esp-tur-2025-11-18 | Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? | 79,215,246 | 79,215,246 |
067afae3fad5b4af01022421a5436f23f3430e28 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x59d1576e8e85c4ffbd9bf9e80e56b72fafdc94ee465290523a9c78e999f8fa7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-14-november-21 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | 79,350,564 | 79,350,564 |
44a786cc7e6cb22f8d433c695773ebd8d3a826cc | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x2bc59855a3638b1d6ff7f784cfd7084b4be61231e744511b9dc2dba219dbeac2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? | 79,365,468 | 79,365,468 |
abc0e00a3e40755cebb3684f6761669339945cf3 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x27a91183ecb9a893f65146ab4603ba0b94b8d56c5ece33f2434c49b4f9b23751 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-bil-2025-11-22 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? | 79,370,529 | 79,370,529 |
ce6f6baaebeccf86527311436b7d86027d1def35 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xbb285bad53b17214d2bc435f1e755d2c44105db5797a81a8923662d0c96364b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-not-2025-11-22 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? | 79,370,529 | 79,370,529 |
a2a94088b4e0ca397a56803f47c9b2a7da6919df | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xf719ec1efeaba6f3f115198384808dacb081565f1eee01e8978fb5d03f1158bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-fre-2025-11-22 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22? | 79,370,529 | 79,370,529 |
a9843e003bfd2677596ec314422b95f6849fd9d4 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x565b79a09e4a8f0f6c926cee97e06fbba0223cad789cb0e77c191f8e0e9d0c95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-mal-2025-11-22 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-22? | 79,393,962 | 79,393,962 |
6fb0f7d6a90e36abd477d6b2a3c72f8b4225d60f | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x8a257e4449bf9a7e7d6859d0b37084f9dd6ca13994149c5c770f0fcbb5fbe758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-wer-2025-11-23 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-23? | 79,411,858 | 79,411,858 |
72029a33ca9b61de417b649d7f1ddaaa3adb6026 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xc695cf633a9bbb09c93dbca404c4e0ff7f45c5c5df33473420bacf91bdad5138 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Brazil win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,106 | 79,415,106 |
f24dd98c2919465c4142858d8b378983d1406272 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xfa0010b169b2c2dc8a2938f6bb4a0e03fdbd6a216e1747558f0a9da43fe17ce3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Lebanon win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,127 | 79,415,127 |
8003def7fae4daaf099a5e081223686c00e1d932 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x3be341b5cfbb4b753f02d647856524a401b01219df642b75a3a2012b1ff11586 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Peru win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,128 | 79,415,128 |
9a0b7fad4a9fb90d7dd4c06c357fc716d43049e6 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x4055b0daeae8dda42c456e02247154c5c6cf0fb67ec1ca714078c9316266a1aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will South Africa win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,130 | 79,415,130 |
aa2a579e3f1c072cf93413cda2209e403992db55 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x9d53809cd8601762acfc24e0f6e6f4a40627644373c506a6961aaf184577140c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Estonia win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,143 | 79,415,143 |
e4ca81f2b41bcc7adeb8f18e8cd650205b269d1d | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xeaf1526e8668c6827d172d11f84104b3cd58f7dbc452dd79b9bc134873c4d7fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Albania win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,143 | 79,415,143 |
ec2ddf5788fa78e5a6836acc0670a33b7c05d627 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x3a2ca91cbac8980660dd5c046b8a4dcd0f3bac3c78ffa6740cfedd4125ad7e67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Pakistan win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,150 | 79,415,150 |
8dab7902a2a3284fb43ebd26a59f188d2108efab | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x049460be8455089184e1de309acabe8de3cb3197f393ef4cae5c948b00e1a06b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Sweden win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
11e55f7c894382012bd94311ee2456032378cf2e | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x0a5b0c69a2162311d442719febce9a9bfa00b02fe17db0582d5747d94ac7116a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Great Britain win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
1f7ef52a9aa817583f064dc4a77734b835b841f2 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x3e73b20e40b2b8ba591eff7c2a762a80cb503668b6315e6bf2f46640897cfc0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will the United Arab Emirates win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
d49f95839ad848177b29c3aa32c0a0d2f1a9a65b | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x4e9760541f4c8064dbeebd282afc4bfacdbfdefc3cbf1dee8716326ce38a5278 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Democratic Republic of the Congo win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
df0e4efc408a5a020ed5dad826ed2dcbd55c4965 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x507e1ac783cdae758555a8f764ebf6e29636fa5be973662a78df0a7b00d02432 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Italy win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
fc4985286c44843cd9a8320f679f9c1cb6082702 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x55b6250caeb52f4953240732d7a9ff029c407cdb7895155afe2f5a0666c10002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Canada win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
0dca1d0bb3904dfc80b8b0b38b9301a11a6d430d | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x5e4f7e28be185a33b839c3267e124e7bc7b1d084116beb44d2b9c56aa5012567 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will South Korea win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
81985bda1c507840ba5918fec4232cbca046785b | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xa367d7a0433c3b2660b3a3a7b45c6d3fba9771cd919b1c35e113f15ea924885e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Spain win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
a5ca0a9ee7f3d0af12449904c9af3a38c50bdf12 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xa5f586c81cfff1f024df60aa6b89d473ab006f036342b81228938a9b1e8ab6bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Poland win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
5f0d6afa3fffdd0486f4d14c51d5f58d3ff5d8f8 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xbcfd625d9a285f091ad6ef6128dabec846481f7e63586d5c0334c75202cbf46a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-29? | 79,415,170 | 79,415,170 |
759dad2dffbd1aee3a2708f3827577dfabc4df02 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x0d44e8abbfd1bbf4b60a24524832e53b6a8c179fe201b71142f5147ae8506293 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-tot-kob-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will France win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
d6da4796a267fb3b93c097d9775668c33b795bf5 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x113b388d6e9ef1539ac9b7914eaad093570e206992c61299436fb1d2736ffb89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-tot-kob-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Greece win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
b2892d311ff291db7e61d9b71f3c1149819e70d8 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x2e593b2624090e7f062a7ea671062b408addb285b6d83deb11b72709cb57e92b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-18? | Event:... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Turkey win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
f99f531dc1855b5acb58f45db6e88da245dc21a6 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x5f3c34d066f07ebac35ae0c4cfcf0c468f8588070f9dece727e33a45b8f1a663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-18? | Event: uef-bul-geo-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? | Event: uef-esp-tur-2025-11-18 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will China win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
47d3d1ee98eb322a30b306af527fdff7387bc275 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x6dca4075128f6e5b112d1f488e55ceb917a30e04dec55be08ae188be02bed339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-18? | Event: uef-bul-geo-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? | Event: uef-esp-tur-2025-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998821509446091
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to Novembe... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-not-2025-11-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
07d875a46565e36a04a9621aad877b6bbaf1c265 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x7114000097101e4a4685bdf9a326559ce4769cf647bb932c69c02bd47c7fbc66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? | Event: uef-esp-tur-2025-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998821509446091
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-november-14-november-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will the United States win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
e73e475c70426ff6bd8aee851dd0e97fe2d7b6c5 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x7383f68e65e372544ab968300b8eac8a8988ba9805305830df68397466305456 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-november-14-november-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelo... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Japan win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
e2d1e39558d732cb51fab93736d5025d91ba532f | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0x9de2c8a603a4c014b4986a05a6770abc1978882446b64d7dac9ce8f1882930ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? | Event: lal-bar-bil-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-liv-not-2025-11-22... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will India win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
a6c50985764b8b7a548134a033c1b20f21ba7ff6 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xe54e7d4d915d593cb87f088adb902aaaeded1ceb10d1516623374eaf668124d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? | Event: lal-bar-bil-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-liv-not-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22? | Event: bun-bay-fre-202... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-miss-universe-2025 | Will Israel win Miss Universe 2025? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
4fb94230bf2e5526881ef325a28f9a34de898ea1 | 0x24399f798e35a527cb2148bac75a0aa2b1d08729 | 0xffeb5c3a0a7d9525a7b82dd75e24a0233fa0f7d3e07abe692c9709b5f548ac5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-liv-not-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22? | Event: bun-bay-fre-2025-11-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-22? | Event: lal-vil-mal-20... | yes | 1 | uef-bul-geo-2025-11-18 | Will Georgia win on 2025-11-18? | 79,415,171 | 79,415,171 |
b8fb8a8ad74ca4a895d284ac9829edf7b2444cd9 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0xcd1127067fd8142d1713b68943e51f72349c552a556f632328a5eb710d917824 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.569875 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | 77,619,840 | 78,459,792 |
5ceb28f66aa2c10209abdcffea2995859be67dcd | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x6a73ddfcca8dab7516db12efd4cb4cd1ca02873fbbd028867bebe062b7c14107 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13?
Event: highest-temper... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | 77,663,603 | 77,663,603 |
7e2e9f0ebcc9aaf1e6dbd89f2051bf0e9a83d6dc | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x5423d9c8170e4c0f66e5cdcb93c8fc24d5ede868050787db741dc759f0bdbdb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 14? | 77,705,864 | 77,705,864 |
9b8144c9acc769c5ea85bdec57ca4f7a632e78a8 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x949b8f6b48800085a65952acb15b2127197151934ee23b29b81a098910ac83d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 15? | 77,747,641 | 77,747,641 |
8d77ad46f7cc98a3282c77a5173cb2ef2521f352 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x1d5483197944695ffd2d533dca4d516ca811959cb9cec5927718a96754bc1624 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 0 | phm-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-21-2025-3pt03 | Will PulteGroup (PHM) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,801,818 | 77,801,818 |
8d00d07b7bbbd78a640a06f1b062d9736132160e | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x0aaf73677aeda3cda88c7337343177267011f1d6d08fbdc83174e5bee6a48edc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 0 | tsla-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-22-0pt5 | Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,804,555 | 77,804,555 |
3579c1558bb951137a6154c2293f61d10d96a318 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x7c9de7c10f6c844116abe7b47bd7c5dc4ca1c3da710813c02d3d388bc227f964 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-new-trade-deals-with-in-2025 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"? | 77,816,965 | 77,816,965 |
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