sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
cf41045502eb9366173da779ecbbb30f92148c77 | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x2b61b42ba44fb76babafaa725c92f5cb1a55d2d3f7d944270b9fa5167eea29a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | down | 0 | googl-up-or-down-on-november-13-2025 | Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on November 13? | 78,973,726 | 78,973,726 |
44dc6f49e25d39fde7382e905cc39a797996140e | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x81955d84cffd4a190020d59511124117b500cd6a75b4a84afb333836e3686d79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | down | 0 | aapl-up-or-down-on-november-13-2025 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 13? | 78,973,743 | 78,973,743 |
9811f49c754a98d083de4fba97ea5822ab3b9eaa | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x0142921b5f9ae3c0b11e8bfb6936caad8ba2ab2b3724bb03f5d8f6aebeb2c824 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | down | 0 | rklb-up-or-down-on-november-13-2025 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on November 13? | 78,973,756 | 78,973,756 |
443bf204a573552b61d7766cef7f1dbbdd0b7cf1 | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x9778aa7639001067d7ddfc3212a678c764352b3ade5a6130100468ecaa46abef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 0.012524 | will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | 78,976,747 | 78,978,918 |
77cbb6c6f2092448b3166040549ce23d681fe907 | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0xf5ca3ec4182822504fd7309d5d8c0887bd352a6c9f870a731294a3c3ec625b44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 0.96867 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-7-november-14 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | 78,997,597 | 78,997,597 |
c2e4db5281c42e692819b0c5d6fb7ce36c98ed33 | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0xfaae501d48a956c4fd26c308b018a82eb7b8784892f2b6b147919551ab1caecc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 1 | will-trump-sue-the-bbc | Will Trump sue the BBC? | 79,035,005 | 79,035,005 |
cca38109da0941b9448a7bbb476746913d769308 | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x1b3c9cb6f8a5183cbcb5ba89906b74c4595bef1dd4a8f86fb0993afc5400604a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | yes | 0.741933 | 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-21 | Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? | 79,118,424 | 79,337,208 |
663985dc8a6903ff3e7b0d5c538185edeb8b4745 | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0xbf8d3c113339a9212ca0f263aede776db4a34762aedc006f70a8703215954863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | yes | 0.000617 | honduras-presidential-election | Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | 79,118,454 | 79,630,522 |
1ccbc402c2ca624337dbbb76de2abdc825220d0b | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x5524f0e0b97241aafa4e26dbc0cdf436256ccb180ab38933dfd2f1b5939fc81b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | yes | 1 | trump-agrees-to-sell-f-35-to-saudi-arabia-by-november-30 | Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? | 79,252,266 | 79,252,266 |
bbb7c2c0d352aa6567932fba5367a9c0f519bc6f | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0xdcc87b9ca36015e396bd0eebca29e854a136ed2b0b701049d1ee9da6bee3eb35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 0 | who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | 79,628,932 | 79,628,932 |
eaf226ac7b64d6bd2d060642ee12bb51cea3050c | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0xb9b05c3a14c6a7c1c6c00a8c214ed154d4232a885f98ebfd01889204ed252931 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 0 | 1-searched-person-on-google-this-year | Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | 79,628,947 | 79,628,947 |
d10ec2aff3d15f0b8dd5b7035b2f69c25d83c6ec | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x6d2ef5376cba8a173352f1a5ad047bf772d12c7d74d9c638884e8c03ee92036c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 0.064006 | zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office-higher-strikes | Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 157m and 167m? | 79,682,086 | 79,885,843 |
43f6f1fdfe50e55eacfba8576bdd23fd617d50af | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x0f1ac7b687b78eac6ea6702a248856c730999a066bd867dc09770728168fa52c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 1 | zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office | Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m? | 79,682,090 | 79,768,146 |
3ba213ab430c7468c1f3b40d90a22918e3577b9e | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0x8d6ab92227c2e07ddb74c5414e2f9d040b9083c460599bf86d35d8a4bb714652 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 0.333004 | will-russia-capture-any-territory-in-lyman-by-december-15 | Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15? | 79,748,181 | 79,892,790 |
6dedff7ede58807c2f5be01a5c3b1b74e7a45f4a | 0x03fe8c5740b6624ba50d3480176ed7239a22b465 | 0xab7d76f02a21673afc22278065e2c6e94776596b6916872388bc5262910fd332 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | yes | 0.396648 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 79,748,204 | 79,748,204 |
76ea9f77182cd69dc31c8eedfea5e17a8661d3b2 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xd2bef1a869d480e550d2bec5a20b31f18e85c8be73cea6f736a4f2699776d2a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)
Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | arsenal | 0 | epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | 79,826,649 | 79,826,649 |
30d15391d4b3dda34f786d1537a6bfd434a3fa51 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x475bed63d511baca5af64162b4a8b53e7b6bb5b4a60a3eb41a33c1740584fb46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5
Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {... | under | 0.000133 | epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | 79,829,631 | 79,829,631 |
b263d24d21aee9528342b7014fbc75dcae97968d | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x9db8f266b2f3cb88dc8ac0403992c414d9f0aedc9d1408b496422fa06219d090 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
Target market:
Question: Spread: Everton (-... | everton | 0 | epl-eve-not-2025-12-06-more-markets | Spread: Everton (-1.5) | 79,881,720 | 79,921,500 |
b19460b6dca09ab004357829a347688595dc2fc5 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x6be9a30847bf99fb3fe830b2befda50db93e2fec8e8e73cc3c69cfbd6ec5db9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | getafe | 0 | lal-vil-get-2025-12-06-more-markets | Spread: Villarreal (-1.5) | 79,882,061 | 79,953,292 |
ebd3b1feb1506d48451bddd1c379b1a030164797 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x09f04e4f74062bffd50684d727c3e1a64662ce97b1fd539590555087aa1b321a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | no | 0 | epl-mac-sun-2025-12-06 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-06? | 79,892,142 | 79,892,142 |
bd6cc6188485ab4bd1cda3988f84f668c2cd68b0 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x59026c18a9bf60874439140c55a12d0d36e937884eda0ff744e6ee0def74f345 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | under | 0.769345 | epl-lee-liv-2025-12-06-more-markets | Leeds United vs. Liverpool: O/U 1.5 | 79,892,142 | 79,946,564 |
13aa7f82165b6c4be8b9a95ed2a17df2c8f7250b | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xfbda41d93bd33a29d8b6ed0549e6c28f32c4bb60c0f48ab9b7314a69b59c8bfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | brighton | 0 | epl-bri-wes-2025-12-07-more-markets | Spread: Brighton (-1.5) | 79,892,142 | 79,984,114 |
12d3d26b682da2162a65cba0b2421d3950554e5d | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x664bde7a5f273761834ed0756cb09c66534003db3b99213c15594dd1c31ca9b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | no | 0 | epl-bou-che-2025-12-06 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-12-06? | 79,894,526 | 79,903,278 |
d42f0dabced0027ae6d8ca71624bee75ea25da4c | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xa5647c68b2ca1871fd48c6170088aef2a5eb571f16f327af34cc36ea370d81cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0.000007 | epl-mac-sun-2025-12-06-more-markets | Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 | 79,894,526 | 79,906,077 |
46360b6421799a8ab6e0478dd488e1738cc73ee2 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x53dd2b4122f7d17eaa4f2694df4adead7919c99d69ae4692926f7aac996cfb54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | bournemouth | 0.000239 | epl-bou-che-2025-12-06-more-markets | Spread: Chelsea (-1.5) | 79,903,278 | 79,921,500 |
d36857aa691830e1a6c4ed9fd7013d4f5b9a8d39 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x611b4bec1fc5c3c7f735b131e4d76c20ee000dfa9c1234c677edc549d7b3a851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | yes | 0.000094 | tur-eyu-kay-2025-12-06 | Will Eyüpspor win on 2025-12-06? | 79,906,077 | 79,937,178 |
7e68a6b051f720fb682f018221c40e53f26162ff | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x1a1c11c7a8d98c1f73472ffc1fa0ba1c95439585fd90a22759869c639e6747f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | yes | 0.000011 | jap-gam-fct1-2025-12-06 | Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2025-12-06? | 79,913,499 | 79,937,178 |
e9199aa3b04b117f3633ae3a439cefeed0f60212 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x6cd3c40e28895c784e0b2cd51dffddfa29ebd55c3b4b14dd3f30284bfe84c1cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0 | lal-vil-get-2025-12-06-more-markets | Villarreal vs. Getafe: O/U 2.5 | 79,914,095 | 79,969,763 |
c08890a2e4d9e5b1ec60a7cb264f55cae633dfc2 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xfce2aceb54b55c6ca0aac25a40f9f00292352dba5f4377b7f1b55ae2756c7435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | no | 0.000054 | bun-hsv-wer-2025-12-07 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-07? | 79,914,712 | 79,920,069 |
ee617b392fa4a9ffb270e74e89cfd98d2c29cfe0 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x57bc61aaeb1afcc6c0594528c809a73381d2c9a0bd9cd84b3f24088cbd2d0780 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | crystal palace | 0.000253 | epl-ful-cry-2025-12-07-more-markets | Spread: Fulham (-1.5) | 79,917,410 | 79,941,820 |
9fdbaa177fc071e11eaee0473d5f23576cc42e34 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x906d08b4fb785d3f7c63b4196ad338c90181c20e96a24b204d0ebfc19321f443 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | no | 0 | bun-wol-uni-2025-12-06 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-06? | 79,917,750 | 79,924,380 |
3f141da7a54a3269693847c31ee486f2d4d5b7c3 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x6057454b26d91f69e109794e0e78ba1f4a1f464a9bf9310af8239d036b69930d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | yes | 0.00005 | jap-kas-yom-2025-12-06 | Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-12-06? | 79,920,069 | 79,920,069 |
437bdfabb354c8e1cffd0e2b1fa13d558a6a75ce | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xfc10d1d6c198a6a7a1270319dfb5eda723753877d5fc5e8c07cd5225bb26a76b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | barcelona | 0.000033 | lal-bet-bar-2025-12-06-more-markets | Spread: Barcelona (-1.5) | 79,921,500 | 79,921,500 |
b285c532d54d817b9ed3b58ecfd19ace80a8e626 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x518d0557a4743d002a06eb4fc9c2826ea66c76959ba4618932abcf34b7a9202b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | yes | 0.000147 | jap-cer-yok-2025-12-06 | Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-12-06? | 79,924,380 | 79,943,766 |
b1b27e58f3c9dc93cef910c1e7c775c1a18d62b5 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x1326615cf69aa52725d6ff69f32cfa42b692ba0cae4a8890228131ee15d4778a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0 | sea-int-com-2025-12-06-more-markets | FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 | 79,926,583 | 79,926,583 |
b5f27b2078c9faaa35cc52a7c5e41e3ab950814e | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x93e0b67de9ec7c234c8b7ff479013b8c49668667c6387ee386480c5b4de2f5eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0 | bun-stu-bay-2025-12-06-more-markets | VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 2.5 | 79,937,178 | 79,937,178 |
7c97d141550a9fe0235ef8d0188cc52a9201d6a0 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xf08069993ce693b484516a5df5c2d7abae583e5a4041e6fb9b0f2e2b0190a218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | como 1907 | 0.00007 | sea-int-com-2025-12-06-more-markets | Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) | 79,937,178 | 79,947,841 |
0d929fb08a96c5df413edc21b84fa76d3f1f9b11 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x87fa1c61e36036ae1a0add349367f1f24488faf6346e62f0ce81738a8d87a419 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | leeds united | 0 | epl-lee-liv-2025-12-06-more-markets | Spread: Liverpool (-1.5) | 79,937,178 | 79,949,671 |
0ffbd9e60ed5c188f4227057747f2a4f0533adff | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xc797c2c200d78db18d705203b4382a80d03e661e7690b2a3f49abf984c5b0711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | bayer leverkusen | 0 | bun-aug-b04-2025-12-06-more-markets | Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) | 79,937,178 | 79,960,931 |
2e51466788adc7bd6868157cd37084c9793c9617 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xec82ea2d2130a6de896589fc87adf30619968a8d75a838a9d4d51555d394c88a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0.000087 | lal-bet-bar-2025-12-06-more-markets | Real Betis vs. Barcelona: O/U 2.5 | 79,938,772 | 79,938,772 |
19d496cd3d170fb7e19c113b0c4696d137a030ec | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xb314d0e28a9c40a7fa73aa61346ae62d761f2cfc4b355def75ec1e8f7f07fad0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0 | lal-bil-mad-2025-12-06-more-markets | Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid: O/U 1.5 | 79,941,820 | 79,949,671 |
b837401ace579b81fb9cbdaf6773813b622b5db7 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x506302ea421de6006b471c964bf406f93c0d98a51f102242a3bd16fb5c813f10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0.00017 | epl-tot-bre-2025-12-06-more-markets | Tottenham vs. Brentford: O/U 2.5 | 79,947,841 | 79,947,841 |
922d744d3ebb18293fd2fd364c6b6b93e51668a7 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xf7cf084a87f26f48b80301d14c8a5f447c89af983898879c17659b0f449404d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0.000066 | epl-new-bur-2025-12-06-more-markets | Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 | 79,956,856 | 79,960,931 |
11b8246bb3288a8d7940d1b6652cb70370253aaf | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0x5b43df717ec9c93381181999bd93140fe5ae4c6e866e500de901ed484343c980 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | over | 0.000264 | epl-eve-not-2025-12-06-more-markets | Everton vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 1.5 | 79,960,931 | 79,963,546 |
ec36621e3647eedbf3184d6e4bd7464b881cd8b9 | 0x042eb4a0e04fbe68cbad282816513ea1a542f947 | 0xff12ebdca7128f8129679430183bb3dc9f2ff7eda0be7c93258326bdefd12a09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | Event: epl-ars-bre-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: arsenal | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brighton vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | Event: epl-bri-ast-2025-12-03-more-markets | Choice: under | Confidence: 0.00013339779259757665
3. Question: Spread: Everton (-1.5) | Event:... | no | 0 | sea-sas-fio-2025-12-06 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-12-06? | 79,962,452 | 79,962,452 |
0f072041a297af2ccdb3323332b9fda9896d3007 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x2333e7f3c0180c4c599baf0edf273c2dd68bdf1b07b1738415b69181e27587d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16?
Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | 69,142,744 | 69,142,744 |
58c805f3a58cf9c32d68ccdfd1c2c3d2c491797e | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x2f89efd581ed122e135489834d6b90c2daaae0ec52a4cf95686c8e1e77b223da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., ... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 69,142,748 | 69,216,503 |
63500de12b6c1e69619529aee821d4028010c7f5 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x2e2881cb38535533865a47328b5d5b35eadec196381990b94ef8e9331b5176f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05?
Event: epl-eve-ars-202... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | 69,961,509 | 69,961,509 |
3d7f36d42bfddf0090cf46bdecb24c34351b2bf4 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0xa58a59e6ca3fe27c2a509594c9864bf56f938718ff593f1e49bb819c809379d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-liv-2025-04-06 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06? | 70,560,952 | 70,560,952 |
2dc5ad5b743a0f9258b49fb5b2ed59545fdb3615 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x2a48b0ce9d264804c48724ecd8234b8de58520f5fb206b9abd70f43a1b5355aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-mun-2025-04-27 | Will Bournemouth vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 70,830,853 | 70,830,853 |
5ca022590a7925ba7d87883e4ed811fcc9f519ec | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0xd51797a7f9404cfec3a3ee7cfb8532f40bc1e9a3db56fa7193b422773b63bb44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-mun-2025-04-27 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27? | 70,830,853 | 70,830,853 |
bd38f1096ef16c5012ece5140bb872f16cc8eb76 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x5844c062cef913e0d160a5076e6dce75a0e92d5c00e7703ea5e5a77c1b256043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | 72,899,098 | 72,899,098 |
25ffaf5b1b5a40b2c88f6ff2c6a5d11ea1b06e86 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x054a59ba05a4b626da9abd54cd8198020e72bbe2373a2df8d7b7fd72449ad33d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Will Urawa Red Diamonds beat River Plate? | 72,900,060 | 72,900,060 |
a014572df888f8660b157d9f86d46ef0af38cc33 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x43a28d966f90920d64a0478bc584b8f127d350f411e9999ccb1522c10424dc81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Will River Plate vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? | 72,900,060 | 72,900,060 |
cfbbd689d1dafad0a4806187169aea65ca3cea24 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0xacd6a07550dcffad0c91ab59b698635431884b8f43e84380786a681d35844e78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-wes-2025-08-16 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-08-16? | 75,289,465 | 75,289,465 |
b80c606887334f3b0646ad57d7799ab5e7f92e19 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x49b09aa1c05aa1c333efd886292d42ee57282e040bc7ef42803001b19a890c29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | uef-geo-tur-2025-09-04 | Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04? | 76,061,309 | 76,061,309 |
21f813ce79b515636f663220ecb30c70529192fe | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x0656c73b782f5a69acd827353913ef341bc6db54e514dbb87d11d4ee51da39b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | 76,454,912 | 76,454,912 |
31973a992d451f47dff3ed4aa238ccb948c10618 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0x262da56221882bfad212e93864104e6a010325665c3da417daedc574913c3bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? | 76,697,255 | 76,697,255 |
d8875e6fae4d36e900558ea26b55b251e9cbf069 | 0x0448d86131247e0a58e56eca1807c5a160b95a75 | 0xe42177e0df676c57bb1be2fb3c681455c95633cbf6fd4c4535b5896e43048d14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | C... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14 | Will Japan win on 2025-10-14? | 77,682,822 | 77,682,822 |
9145365b2179685149d8d0e002d4b9786457d5a7 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x131674286ab60d1e2ef34596ae30e7f162180e8016fdff044e4c6762b5ded92f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | 69,042,882 | 69,042,882 |
c708a992ee5853b6d976feb77364976c57607679 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x3f08bc831d9898043a6925642c9994abc517e4b090adffc2250d68f880849999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | 69,332,800 | 69,332,800 |
bebbe2095b91bd5158060d2c4e88c150a37270a7 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xe667de9434da5c1fa9915f88ba82fc957e05c5f19624648d96856a3d36799d2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | 69,332,803 | 69,332,803 |
0d07453cde95e3a6103a0102e6bff66e8c0e2519 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x86fb692d46222a843e5b29a9ce74ea98fb5418bd3ddd70beb02acca036459031 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? | 69,332,804 | 69,332,804 |
eb4cfb098ae02d2f5efabb11e452b045e6da4bab | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x68595002337cb0220590524ffb2fa7dd1284860da34b50809eab1ed405f43c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? | 69,589,904 | 69,589,904 |
32e175c8756de4f03704bde373585ff2f49046ee | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x70d03202eab770703f7e15014f63594ffbc2f11ef478a91914fc55db0b2fa241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? | 69,589,904 | 69,589,904 |
fcf32608a4de66fddf38e399de5906a75e9d25d6 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x7c02cc297f2f83e04f191160c512706cc3c50eb0282cbd998940fe51163a0c9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | 69,589,904 | 69,589,904 |
76bfbd3c4ce7164c9b4d7c3b8e7f50e727af4911 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x7e444ac87ee6e0239207aadd7a9ffd6f7f308fa5dcc2e93bd9ea78290288e086 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | 69,589,904 | 69,589,904 |
1fee275b4908f098717b49894d156ea2bb5edd7e | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x89dca5a5abeac3d515b181442663caf960df0d1876463bcb5073b39773a4874f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? | 69,589,904 | 69,589,904 |
fb7de053e8c8cfd1e47330267c94df412a509349 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xe62a821c6f75f55de5714ae7e22d7eef7231d836caf6e81e985a10b3bf34d089 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | 69,616,479 | 69,616,479 |
37a0a8d6fa5fa34e2b9663d7ad0d3b0f43e205b3 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x7026ca54a682228747495ce32360d57b549e5041c8d02c6902ef895e5a15a937 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | 69,616,482 | 69,616,482 |
d332208d012a59b3e497138e36b59610ab6cbe37 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xf86bddaa19b04201cb979ce689d26d850b2a1c10b2c5e4226c6a6dcca55d4a44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? | 69,616,482 | 69,616,482 |
aeb51b8facd682d11f30a54fd9962f144f580a7a | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xbee7ae41793edc129b619eb94926b27eefa60dda13689436f5a0b7a1ce03bdc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-11-18-628 | Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? | 70,438,707 | 70,438,707 |
71f6d765cbddef7ecc5aed642a7119fc1860a38c | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x76c6b39bceff6d6029ac01489fa2a943d30998b4bfa3d99d97c8a264764b94e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-11-18-628 | Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18? | 70,469,668 | 70,469,668 |
b75c6470b6e2ce0ea25dd303570cd78429acf5b0 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xd77ec21e0c568249f1433ac91da594e3ac8690fe0fa5ac92532069977750d54c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25? | 70,695,617 | 70,695,617 |
1408f05491cd582a9f3e6ac54b9c1db73d7a11af | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x41702bfa11e6eb45a04c3e9ed0b42eb7a38ef2cfc41209f6359d716453784d80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25? | 70,744,193 | 70,744,193 |
1460a5a79e995d1f02df9c9296aff93dc87a1dd5 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x48a4154374768bbbd8aaad198024a4884e1b9f860389b7bc69067f8de840a8df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? | 70,749,295 | 70,749,295 |
698361ad7cd66f50ee265111bf0e782c587f272c | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xdc11ef6987c89be9faa1b704d7c75b529567390792efd64af55caf3fe9ee866f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? | 70,751,002 | 70,751,002 |
610a83bbf89d139b31aab476ec5356a76db3b056 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xac4ea377873437e0b5ce3c50bd38f4e7bb9ce296726415b71415cd5a8af8e263 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | star-wars-iii-re-release-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Star Wars III' gross more than $25m on opening weekend? | 70,875,980 | 70,875,980 |
4d78f4395f26c6eba16f6f84dde8d4b3421c89cb | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xa88f301c18dc72222a4f7c1a0e732c3f951f1af73079f201adb6d2e88251995c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | accountant-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $28-31m on opening weekend? | 70,878,639 | 70,878,639 |
3c27aa03a20f2d3824f24c19dfb584c479635918 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x6778cc7efb204c726feb8a0c8c01a8521f293c466df2c800832ab532a1f7313f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | accountant-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'The Accountant 2' gross more than $31m on opening weekend? | 70,878,642 | 70,878,642 |
336d6540c4d3de4e275e4bdd79de38fb31268a81 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,952,120 | 70,952,120 |
97f0ff71da2be0c589a9118a56ce86b611c89637 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x702538016d765521c08de342e1b8df9454ae1e66cca89bf1e037fe07471388c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,952,386 | 70,952,386 |
ba649c1867d76c2099b3e60ffee669a487241547 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x8b4d1584715be1214797eb680966c68238ef24ec4b8f38b293fe6f808620770b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,952,790 | 70,952,790 |
000540de6cd03ac968bf4716a335de768adfda6e | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x8d04d21b3132891ceec9aa6a92ed64f1e1f270eada5a8c3b0ad67422344fbae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,952,796 | 70,952,796 |
5d60bc2231c3abdbe0d97ad1919ccdbee98fe587 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xacc73c257249910e1e07a7d43692336df36116fdca673fc566b17b918293f2d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | who-will-leave-trump-administration-first | Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration first? | 70,998,514 | 70,998,514 |
40dde57c1b1e92367ceb65b7bb6d0b330a9875c7 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x822355d49548602e82f77260f3779fe837d9b00ccd01f983aac44615862d9f93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 25–May 2? | 71,027,154 | 71,027,154 |
67f0061fe49dcd1744902768047af26e769dbc2c | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x90cdae146f21b9d5809ff54ffaa318d2acb5b7e23aebd61f515a3854738bde0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 25–May 2? | 71,033,464 | 71,033,464 |
bc1fdb9823e51035473568222053d29c5a50ee8d | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x70c99edb32b0a74d8aae37a5530369d1f454231ccfbe08e93285de8feda67e4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 25–May 2? | 71,036,742 | 71,036,742 |
746031a5c1e83eea002b8a7a7bef2bab19ada9f3 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x76fa8b3759d1cb7a1f4269a76626b1f17acd23a51e91a0798044d127d2fdfff1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 25–May 2? | 71,036,742 | 71,036,742 |
aba6783e2d63298d9e78ce5fe33acd3bd11d209e | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x9eae3ac697455267a466d3528f906bd589e3150e85308cc03c2ee07646efc1e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 25–May 2? | 71,036,742 | 71,036,742 |
1dd2ee1d446dee8f7ad1a2e28a3cb1b8a502f9de | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xc9e0c5eda48b33180f47ad97c77db19a8d2707687af382d2e5639b9e391544cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 25–May 2? | 71,036,742 | 71,036,742 |
daf69dfd5979fbaab6f04e3d694ad1675075ffa2 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xb0ba69ab60e942658548b0f9fbf117efce50402d11b88865ebdc5e0c850dad81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-... | yes | 1 | thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | 71,168,390 | 71,168,390 |
80bc1fad2d7e8ae15bb9563a6449c2fe8294f5ae | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xf5924f73c56d2dbb13b7e26c1a40c30aab599cd3735f6c272318c1237de9baf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-... | no | 1 | thunderbolts-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend? | 71,168,390 | 71,168,390 |
b5b0fa57ca762f0838b75808ffe44449373e813f | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xb7dc30f7c592d4237c53828507c1dc50c3f5decda4c3e37069f161edf692df7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 2–9? | 71,189,100 | 71,189,100 |
8c22a49c38a471c9fe3fd34b8c793a0e6a82a850 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xbb8f5d06410ebdf39c85bece4bef52ba519f8d1eaea67b182374153cb181e274 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Mar... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? | 71,231,493 | 71,231,493 |
4ed84e20a0c3025275555db7c38ba71374be8245 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x0ac65a2b4fa8f77699790ab9d5419dbe32df13a5230597165a4a3b1c6f2f95ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Mar... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 90m and 100m views in first 24 hours? | 71,233,786 | 71,233,786 |
e9e98adcc5136a4e597b51896f59f7a3150b397c | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x3afa5b2aced78a5f00132a1ef51879a08eaf369528aa01f7541f50c8ce1138c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Mar... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 80m and 90m views in first 24 hours? | 71,233,786 | 71,233,786 |
7cbe97806b6b74eeab009232fe63e42a2a792da1 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x50604c58f24c72f36b7ff15a63d07606e0c577a53db4aacbdcda1ad32ecd010d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-... | no | 0.999886 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 70m and 80m views in first 24 hours? | 71,233,786 | 71,233,786 |
7ca3f9d78cf76635347dae9597574fd29c815744 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x7bb6ccb04f88c3f35b030c0507373d3848ecca0d17b56f25e795c4518a492487 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 100m and 110m views in first 24 hours? | 71,233,786 | 71,233,786 |
e86472bf6394e83191270743acebf50eaa6c02d6 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x9ebcc8ac8f2eefaaec5572555b186e5c6f4a2c22a1a6499d32d57775b0d9effd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–... | no | 0.999907 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | 71,233,786 | 71,233,786 |
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