sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ac1ecab11e3e09aba635ae641ac2029d048de283 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0xfd5db367809c7009dfb0a1153c8dc6054b3ab2fcc8910ce0427cf7c15fb8a84d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | 78,079,676 | 78,079,676 |
efe9e7cbd1d88f1246432bdf0d1b116135035032 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0xe204f4c7fbca4873a35148e597ad18306b6a01d5b967d8919908380cf0ae1e1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | no | 1 | lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | 78,079,681 | 78,079,681 |
b2f99b5391bbe44855623512289979d96084c890 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x0d668b1f966d1f37d0a9a94489585e50dd9a750610459312936d1659c53de5ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | no | 1 | uel-goa1-ast4-2025-10-23 | Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? | 78,079,691 | 78,079,691 |
246c37645aefcc89f1c63ed6be0bb1ee12a65cd5 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0xb93e1e0485933ebf020cc3230fe89804df8c4937c38b32347439f1f7409ab1ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | no | 1 | sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Will AC Milan vs. Fiorentina end in a draw? | 78,079,701 | 78,079,701 |
c07e271d53d771c3bf9bf79fb567cfcc00225f2b | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x05a582dcbeeb1a243ff4e2ad8aebf2423d0792779164edcf463d6fc2507e25a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-zelenskyy-shake-hands-for-on-friday | Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds? | 78,079,716 | 78,079,716 |
40811d75a769b3b2ea072640368081beeef159c4 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x5c8631dee6fb5f78622bb5f82a7cc2e59f8da772059184c280102c8fe98f4d0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 18? | 78,079,721 | 78,079,721 |
3fd5bd4b4d65142ffc1b490b9205130fdb2ecc6e | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x8d86613a1182d8cfd2ccb1bc64dfc8a3019238236ec2e53e407b5700f0c7a69d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bou-2025-10-18 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-18? | 78,079,739 | 78,079,739 |
e251e052951646917c0c07d59b827855176e445d | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x0bb776f6ffd18e8df2a50e2aadb4f009b6ccf348aeadc40fd060349cedfbcccc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | mls-col-laf-2025-10-18 | Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2025-10-18? | 78,079,747 | 78,079,747 |
e99c31a72c911d586d8a430d05003c3ad8ddd9af | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0xa90230bd14949a665af24b184e00ad153d2b07bf31737c716b42d870047b0eb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-bet-2025-10-18 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-18? | 78,079,751 | 78,079,751 |
6b17133b6e71c6a1f11cb9a430fc3af8e74009e9 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x28f197609a8bf4a23a1a52f228129b058f9b1b1c95227e7cc8617e5f736356b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | fl1-ang-asm-2025-10-18 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-18? | 78,079,755 | 78,079,755 |
dedcc831fecc4b924b7fea18cfe18f09c999c096 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0xaad9b3cc69ed0c273a9d86beaeea5086e3df17b636657b9b81d44c02e8c97524 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 20? | 78,079,771 | 78,079,771 |
d1172b36f4d7f0b36fc08e6a83d515ac53426f8b | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x7eb5855e79652de261c96d2e306fa1a81ad5b19d371a6645885e1e66f21f9339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | mls-sje-aus-2025-10-18 | Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC end in a draw? | 78,079,779 | 78,079,779 |
1c8c252fb10291159e6040a3479374743fb26110 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x0b1b58d17770ef5cb8ff256d48bce881cba8d45593644607840e448aefe16a1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | no | 1 | epl-tot-ast-2025-10-19 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-19? | 78,079,795 | 78,079,795 |
50e5f99dba3a486fe09f829a0f7123c21de6a8ff | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0xadbfc8ff9f88a27c86e7eb41bfe39c970d867cc91063df94debc1b6854bb0396 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-october-10-513 | Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0 and 44.4 on October 17 2025? | 78,079,798 | 78,079,798 |
6387f115e0747eef2040720007df471accf5bce7 | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x78286ce1890797e4af25303ee69fc105cbc5c09aaf2f751379271af25d718a5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-sidemen-video-on-week-1-795 | Will Sidemen's next video get between 7–8 million views on week 1? | 78,079,818 | 78,079,818 |
4db65c393ad948481db5e38caae4bc8d6574998f | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x278ed09748cc2021cdd583c0611b575125991156b646fc7e0b14ef62c198dd7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 78,079,822 | 78,079,822 |
8ff9025849e7496138515bd6446bede83a84e4dd | 0x27454f673df9562e76659d32505245d14da2055e | 0x3f5d83005852c283cfed78ae3e452ffb2663711b2e28ce86890fa29cca61a218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | 78,079,837 | 78,079,837 |
2eadbcef78956342cc576b7d2547fa4b3074f8ba | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0x8708c71fe2ae9e07e75b7f2c1c7715e5484f6bf4e5a1d988032dfb962eaa5acf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | up | 0.000074 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | 78,059,122 | 78,059,122 |
5e14f98a8c984330b474091858ace32546f1ed8e | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0xb6f9f5ee390ad5a409421646b601ce64e7756b047d3b6c45a61ff18f1b43df5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
Target market:
Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET
Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for th... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | 78,059,122 | 78,059,122 |
53900814bbd768e06e819d1e8f28c4b6db7b3780 | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0xbefc90e6c285d71e290dd7e831b73ede7104da4c9342ae0eb2bb55b1394b8e90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 8AM ET | 78,059,122 | 78,059,122 |
f7058ab40786b832442b5390b2aa74a680846397 | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0x172250481e826d0c4ccdc4f9afdda929525b0a5a322b91d2f35d4d70c85ec19b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | 78,063,388 | 78,063,388 |
b376ad17083d54febab3fef07e2e88e6e61dff1d | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0x1966cc4bc0fa63d7f72bf0c1d3f6792c63c36641ca62db2c784b694e1b8e4d96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0.000482 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-10am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET | 78,063,388 | 78,063,388 |
7ccd4b25c7626a8bc7c1935d34ac9af2aea8ee1f | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0x82830b642c3c2fa283630efd11e774d72747f327c088691fab61963544f38854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | 78,063,388 | 78,063,388 |
46399874fb93ba210f73159c4e6fccfc02bf7d29 | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0x1d2d7cf653a073800c746cc7f40ec6e53a999be03652795288c6f6d10a97ba28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 1PM ET | 78,070,142 | 78,070,142 |
62473ec7e7d533e645ccaa027bbffbb6ed838499 | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0xfc645d78acbce841d545baac78827ba7fef7632b5ad8170408738d8d902791a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | 78,070,142 | 78,070,142 |
f4cf866933e6a9066167d7a19592cec76c362abd | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0xe8d5003d1d2eeb31ad9efbb8130c9bd85b2d19883fdbfc1047e69dff02e56757 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | 78,073,472 | 78,073,472 |
17ca1560ce1988ae2344b1f504330cf6823fed34 | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0x8e99693453b0285f682ceda6ef745c7a7bb0b17c04c5aef8166fe446ca15250c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | 78,074,387 | 78,074,387 |
ca7fb99e18c3735b6c2d7d24ea1df8eff920b616 | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0x052b959e5dadcaa55c11a94fa7620c5165e705bc7780b07d0b3a4c3692dd2c63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | 78,096,313 | 78,096,313 |
966752f596d0abee11823d49abe1c8bfed5c64ad | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0xa90893bfe2c2e586d79c44d1952a768f9a281ab579580118dabb334df0e2fc4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | 78,096,313 | 78,096,313 |
41cdefd8b368f5fe6757de19590b704d1aa2c5fe | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0xeec2e076f416170f6193f1e9926467a15e136892a9e1962e77fffc8df1fd79bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | 78,102,901 | 78,102,901 |
b07e2320ee3c1650f76287264bb3d26d0dd7adb4 | 0x27e9817d67b86d9c0172d0a092766916f11f14de | 0x37a6a7ee6fa638ef00b835b5b09003a913c9ee09f95a12532dd1c858bb1de30e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.415549863022343e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | 78,108,640 | 78,108,640 |
fe596ec6f87d596262976960becef489f6bc5b0a | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x4ab7f16ceb4f305e6b6dfe6948c72cf68a804f69c22a6d0760157262d0a64252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech?
Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,351,584 | 62,400,171 |
aae6df88cfd2cc6bc6ae0aa84e7b3d0a5a6fd4f7 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0xda168132daf80144e6b4d918da71562f4e4ef2ad6d060407c936b213f1510eb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech?
Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech
... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,357,201 | 62,400,171 |
58cbcc464c2fa51eb68c21678049b20984ef06a2 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x1c8b8f5ee3e221c1af5e2bc731066e70025ad6509061ca3102cb92855206ed52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,357,217 | 62,357,217 |
f8415188bc9de4544620e444a4b16231eaddaa0d | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x73b3b15a44f7eeb5d999d5001dd231de166b4b99a0372626fee33280be517af9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "Aurora" during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,379,248 | 62,400,064 |
2cff6014d1c389b156b08d8e0def049424aeaef1 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x092ba04a021e24e70f2063a3f5839939416166eb32b1a5d9a8dd4474f253a37a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "Congo" during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,400,063 | 62,400,063 |
4ee81e249e244464a7dab68e711aae35bd319a16 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x440515cbd820859c57a857401cb8fee8d1fbebaed581a9fc4d0d1f6391ee57a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "President Xi" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,400,063 | 62,400,063 |
ca5ff7be2b3856b568492447246d86440c49c459 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x9158385312bf6d42a5767836365430e445011ebb63ca11ee84713d7842ef2621 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "Putin" 2 or more times during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,400,063 | 62,400,063 |
3c9e295a66da2378a6366d6f7a09d1d57e6c8329 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0xc8c1e11cdc48e466c72500ab15a9534f94030ec119459a23b8f33acb2ba59a10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "border" 30+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,400,063 | 62,400,063 |
917cb9f29467130010629ac649fc57fbec045fec | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x5918ec2d889871f664d66e5c0693ed2f05b3840ee6b6c57b336a7042d3c5dbf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-nevada-speech | Will Kamala say "border" 3+ times during her Nevada speech? | 62,400,063 | 62,463,702 |
41b95fbf7a632e4862935a4ec21f44da4e77a76c | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0xafccca964e0c6a55c6b9d377ef64beeff4af88ba529904613da22a909a74f649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-nevada-speech | Will Kamala say "inflation" 3+ times during her Nevada speech? | 62,400,063 | 62,463,702 |
8656da819a6267bcad3c2bf343112593ec6d0f90 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x7862dcadef6f758a26c5395185d2845b0d22131cc4553fce8826f621d5644be5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "trans" during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,400,064 | 62,400,064 |
21cc29e0222ba9d61a550801c7f49c74453c89d5 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0xa8962cba4e4511f454f0c5e8cee503ee8afff6dbb784ae79f469e903f39e622c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Will Trump say "black jobs" during his Wisconsin speech? | 62,400,064 | 62,400,064 |
e3824fb0ad157631fb81eab6efb7956e1188dfe9 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0xb22d9a02271ad3e95061b1d8fce244335edcba399c307be7d474bbe85b57ca37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-nevada-speech | Will Kamala say "middle class" 5+ times during her Nevada speech? | 62,400,064 | 62,463,702 |
71feedb433fc6dda79da7c1820fb89b46c9942ca | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0xd30d752004f86169501930513ed209b5656ae284dde0aa55e957f7a7993b8961 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 0 | what-will-kamala-say-during-nevada-speech | Will Kamala say "new deal" during her Nevada speech? | 62,400,064 | 62,463,702 |
c483bdb0f1a93b54eba91f5c97ae2bdbe3df3a80 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0xbdb9ab17c8046dae6c4f1d0fbe0b4ba53dc83d13aa7f5d6dbcdbd9dd5270d14e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | no | 1 | september-2024-temperature-increase-c | September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C? | 63,326,224 | 63,326,224 |
4e0e23bc9b62f25df9fdd96ed2da0bcedca0e924 | 0x27f32ac0dc49e3a99b76521ba6397e70192e73e5 | 0x2758b209d0ce348873b100c1205c2e3c2449222f211e4e9857e29e3071a65fad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times during his Wisconsin speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech | Choice: n... | yes | 1 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,966,681 | 63,966,681 |
305a548365a46537b2c139c3089ef48a589cf851 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x48e0352bf6b0b6fd8714c007231908a8d1b4e8b01635f3dc84afb0945722166c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18?
Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | 63,057,216 | 63,200,391 |
ab9ae32f0ec1ab008e16eea771d7ae2b233f6cf8 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x40f542d6ee264ac6bd75b1176247aaded129104ef4ff480ae04cdb4cadb2166b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18?
Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | 63,073,671 | 63,172,608 |
f9d66351c1b5a0f94f1583049bdd764932bcd91b | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x5887d15377196406e76883c003cf1761fa79e517a718520e58f80a6d69116968 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
Target market:
Question: Will Ethereum ... | yes | 0.045577 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-october | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | 63,154,642 | 63,291,120 |
0d36371231b68ca966d447fd6f9b09cc98fcfd2d | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xce1030b288ecfa69075fdff32b5cfb9bfd9514f21c7cb1677334d0552fcf34f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0 | solana-above-145-on-october-18 | Solana above $145 on October 18? | 63,155,664 | 63,200,391 |
5b5ac9156b22b301b6063581163db0b41bf44330 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x6dafdc97617a6451e0ba98565e0cb7c07cffd87ac80cab4a00462eb7aba4adbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.006672 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-october | Will Solana reach $160 in October? | 63,198,079 | 63,253,838 |
c02566d3107dad9373659c37866487c842c66c68 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x7897ecef7c50a9ac6e3a5a97c677defd11d6642a9c68fdb733c2df31db4888f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.002733 | ethereum-above-2600-on-november-1 | Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? | 63,557,327 | 63,771,608 |
a9c1a41e84392f480601b01173d00702a2e25742 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xe745f98542bb00bb38fecdd8945b6413f7bf2b2800f37676abac414541fcb38a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.00961 | solana-above-170-on-november-1 | Solana above $170 on November 1? | 63,596,314 | 63,756,577 |
651d4b0a4152c77408c0929be7bd15ece848bdbb | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xa6f4dbecc4723d0a00155da852262064a5edd24158c6262c39fc413be223e3c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.023464 | bitcoin-hits-80k-before-election | Bitcoin hits $80k before election? | 63,662,206 | 63,838,145 |
7447cbac59e06d7cafbf70462a49f3a38b953589 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x5073a950dbea1a73022758b6ad2dac05073400ddcf9ad8c907919c76608fcdcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.018774 | bitcoin-new-all-time-high-before-election | Bitcoin new all time high before election? | 63,662,206 | 63,918,254 |
4c1c6c627c6af5a8c7ee2bc59689393c05ca31aa | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xa96b6824f87f80bd16290f2d5e3312138b3214e86ef47df24f94d8554d0ca9fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.054604 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 in November? | 63,822,315 | 63,970,057 |
2b5ebc15ac3ccc27637ab190fdeaf73af1826f96 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x3cf39d3134dfe5056fe333089af5dbece583a6ff64a71fe7a53e7c7866a278f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November? | 63,838,145 | 63,838,145 |
28d2af9b7c2e719ed25451510b377b443541b03d | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xc41c3339b106ca06d49a908d6a2566a7d9e22aef295ce4c87f64b1be94bfff69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.165138 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-november | Will Solana reach $160 in November? | 63,838,145 | 63,838,145 |
36eca83d4687568759fb3575cab477e134aa286c | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x803a5e1339b2c11412138ba88d88580f6a823f128101f49054a159dddd53a9b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.042121 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in November? | 63,838,145 | 63,949,617 |
c6a3858e8be28caedad3a03e9b602bb90fb4b794 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xfc0c05faf9ddba6b75a34a9f90579bcf428201c9cb7edba266a3333c5edd8880 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.005691 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November? | 63,838,148 | 64,162,575 |
867efb891fc3bcf338fb0abae483eb9a4d719f01 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x92ab5e178f52b7af61c7976451130558cc157feb016afa3f790e74b614250b6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0 | solana-all-time-high-wen | Solana all time high in Q4? | 63,846,536 | 64,095,458 |
4ebdc541a5f024afd0d603e43c96249280e1cca9 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x368667274d5db66bc646fe86d55a1c2813a0ff5847b480741a6e40bf2310d279 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.163168 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November? | 63,859,922 | 64,155,129 |
6911b71f43896f3276d89bffa9c2bc27fe93cd83 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xfb294343730da0986a7589f19a2cd9afe1b75332f67a1365d981d18c2962877c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.009938 | solana-all-time-high-wen | No Solana all time high in 2024? | 63,878,638 | 64,102,813 |
0dcc652e34b69e59cc6de0c66e1b1eeb5b6a30e4 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xfefbd6fa16a276839af9d87e7e649b0ccc90a2b36e63b5e48f50fb8da76bcb33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 1 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,949,617 | 63,949,617 |
c0232ec503f09f7ec884830370c1db975de3678e | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xe3cd2ea91498938a562fa11cdfe790bb2a8957c524666fadc5a178b566b3d1bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.014433 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? | 64,018,144 | 64,163,169 |
0240e468d405eebaff978c205ada3640d1239846 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x952e8d6dcd67c7d28720491a798e96a2729a57598cb04b4de6f6c2e6f75fd12b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.000468 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? | 64,018,144 | 64,289,744 |
46968639fd1323449c8d4f414fa478a1475fe1e4 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x769abd20ec9a26f773db72cf0bda90ee2b4be046cd596ea196f55b30c108c7f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.009678 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? | 64,025,413 | 64,168,623 |
7947bbab9ac7ecf62ee3f7b14bef016ac8e50d22 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x464f5c11d602edfc469894257adc3c22c8ca715f3a2fb43d3a96f28c482a97de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.003902 | solana-above-200-on-november-15 | Solana above $200 on November 15? | 64,049,922 | 64,332,659 |
b8d348a92b1dd26f4ab139785667278c67c42338 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xdf5f68bff175d44e9f7d963c6368f6b002099884dbcf72ede996f129762971c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.004123 | ethereum-above-3000-on-november-15 | Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? | 64,049,922 | 64,332,659 |
ca5bec3f4989390136abccb0a382ca13f5f32982 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xf1b9fbb1ed110000ba1b21d41b9184abb7d86536469a9a139ed5e78ad8fe090b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.019054 | bitcoin-above-76000-on-november-15 | Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? | 64,049,922 | 64,332,659 |
72b815bdaae6fe958e11d03f7a4b87ea398aeee4 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x76e17ec73213ae30d50a958e04c7093675e751711eba5aae2477151265500be3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.000038 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November? | 64,115,811 | 64,156,223 |
8baece5ef1de36db0812fc4cabb610a4bddedbaa | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xa9aa39150781856b0b6391f7d988f6314bc9d91b6cc11c9e9841ec71fa158a74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.064509 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? | 64,116,830 | 64,719,285 |
a7a22dd3e4430455522e69670663ba439fc8321c | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x7d72074a017bb2b409b5291e417034b5c6203d420e068b3edbf5ad5ca0cd589a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.01269 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? | 64,165,824 | 64,921,508 |
c41626df6b74162d07bcc59019eb8967dd5f093a | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x7fd6b916e92d0ef96ca9f92098cd572024975b84bbcc742255ceec4e958fca10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.044161 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? | 64,166,039 | 64,543,322 |
6467af75d17f1eadc4728042c838d6e1ec994420 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x393f8148b0b67bcf945fdd07988c771aacb363d589d9a1be7fd58f5261ce2f8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 0.021653 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? | 64,170,761 | 64,939,969 |
e458e5d533a01785156cba8842d4449807005a01 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x556db275974928c00835341966b7cfd773a9e542cb78c135106a2ca31bfffa16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | no | 0.042856 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? | 64,172,216 | 64,956,138 |
d6af7a24f5b347f67e3b7b82ba053ccd5baf06dd | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x78e20dcb15d578061a6df0c5014d66cc21244bad6848336f3513493c65cf09c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Event: bitcoin-above-62000-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 ... | yes | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House | 64,289,744 | 64,289,744 |
fd8d52d947cb654b4b90e86a9217fd0dda86ea3d | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x3d68c893b43c24d3d4e5f0b8f64204d94a37745589a41544555a74412936153c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.112303123003704e-08
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04557727826800678
3. Question: So... | no | 0.047523 | bitcoin-above-90000-on-november-22 | Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? | 64,332,567 | 64,607,295 |
039197db4a6c4ef0829239b247df16b5bdcf000c | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x89ae2a4213110cae3e902f3fc3f9757d85ab7f870fda92ead79d64dd208228ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04557727826800678
2. Question: Solana above $145 on October 18? | Event: solana-above-145-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Solana reach $160 in O... | no | 0.05408 | ethereum-above-3000-on-november-22 | Ethereum above $3,000 on November 22? | 64,335,314 | 64,607,295 |
f41965289a90f67d28433f9f27881448f91a5441 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xf632051d8da1f1bc85704c0b5245b8fc45871fda1ced49050d637ced5f1a8c2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $145 on October 18? | Event: solana-above-145-on-october-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Solana reach $160 in October? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00667234270143417
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,600 on November... | no | 0.060003 | ripple-above-0pt87-on-november-22 | Ripple above $0.87 on November 22? | 64,371,425 | 64,607,295 |
b075a817e25b9a88d5d02ba29f92f1b9485122ac | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xb803598e76d5fb6841e1f4dec4adc2e6f43fab996eb2a552f9cccfc5938b15cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana reach $160 in October? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00667234270143417
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? | Event: ethereum-above-2600-on-november-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0027326291156139974
3. Question: Solana a... | yes | 0.003527 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-in-november | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? | 64,542,751 | 64,921,508 |
ec6ed80bbea2f7635bb4c71d253bd8580f225fc7 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x1f37446953386f655a6032c9a51c9cc552efa4c1b61c456bd40e1353423d7405 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? | Event: ethereum-above-2600-on-november-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0027326291156139974
2. Question: Solana above $170 on November 1? | Event: solana-above-170-on-november-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.009610131772114273
3. Question: Bitcoin hits $80k... | yes | 0.004151 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-november-22 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | 64,542,754 | 64,719,285 |
73af6debeda793c6690b1fb6ad72ac3662635f47 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xea5c34ee273855ce65a14c4826cba2f394cdbbd4eefcb750d54e1047d33bc675 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $170 on November 1? | Event: solana-above-170-on-november-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.009610131772114273
2. Question: Bitcoin hits $80k before election? | Event: bitcoin-hits-80k-before-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02346441009382495
3. Question: Bitcoin new all time h... | no | 0.02081 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-sunday | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? | 64,626,443 | 64,719,285 |
21bf3584ff0c778ea69899f87bce9244fb2181a7 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xba54f4ceb28ea56c4fd03f520a365923739bb7addd7b89c2f2dab638d359415f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin hits $80k before election? | Event: bitcoin-hits-80k-before-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02346441009382495
2. Question: Bitcoin new all time high before election? | Event: bitcoin-new-all-time-high-before-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.018773763740508702
3. Question: ... | no | 0.000096 | bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29 | Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? | 64,694,129 | 64,921,561 |
56b0669bdb4482b4a49271b57a83c362ed5a5473 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x11427bf56777860c37ff84af81f6eefd0d3692e6446539ac9518816b98026458 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin new all time high before election? | Event: bitcoin-new-all-time-high-before-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.018773763740508702
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $2,750 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.05460414733676918... | no | 0.010505 | ethereum-above-3300-on-november-29 | Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29? | 64,722,910 | 64,918,633 |
c2d18fb63d6fc999864306b98f59d4a8c1ff255c | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xb68dc440ece98763d1c3b47fea240e619d36224583ccaefd3b292b04ddd3c574 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $2,750 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.05460414733676918
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sola... | yes | 0.002699 | ethereum-above-3500-on-december-6 | Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? | 64,900,987 | 65,137,928 |
f072a6047cef008eda53463f3c05f5cc8d807e56 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x95474ea98c1e6a6bc501b952fad567a4228735fdda5f21aba306b7bd1ce3e089 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Solana reach $160 in November? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.16513783649181885
3. Question: Will Bitcoin re... | no | 0.009778 | bitcoin-above-98000-on-december-6 | Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? | 64,918,648 | 65,160,985 |
49e45a49a493ec93ca25850dc4f02570c33a0d1e | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xce2c37f842447795c47f2991ae2139777f2ca6082a5de6a0425bb9882b181252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana reach $160 in November? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.16513783649181885
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04212100126337895
3. Question:... | yes | 0.001781 | ripple-above-1pt69-on-december-6 | Ripple above $1.69 on December 6? | 64,958,663 | 65,119,123 |
afb67d727ca69a49707bce0be0e21ec9d7a30869 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x2da5d7393176a24ffc4d1f62d4475d0578698f148141b767ac7d46f111905d56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04212100126337895
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00569067579038144
3. Ques... | no | 0.167045 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-friday-12-6 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? | 65,003,923 | 65,100,926 |
b1734831c61911da265a1007eb2707e997869432 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xca1b9d978eab6124a2b7216ed87c1bb9dad9a6842a00bde007cbf5c09d320df1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00569067579038144
2. Question: Solana all time high in Q4? | Event: solana-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.429332604252903e-07
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach... | yes | 0.000031 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Will Ethereum hit $3,500 in December? | 65,010,316 | 65,036,302 |
21196ce18ab54aafd98dbf6e28646a00775871fe | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x3fe73810850c7d86e6fe486a68c40f0e78c060e27d46799e4f05e4cb3f27111d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana all time high in Q4? | Event: solana-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.429332604252903e-07
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16316757228158635
3. Question: No Solana all time ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Will Ethereum hit $3,800 in December? | 65,012,217 | 65,077,535 |
7d4e40bb81e7c467de308f1bb2a11617712ad5a1 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x9621f12e621ac9ec3d556accb7e1af020d04f62538873e7f1f9630aa246b5470 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16316757228158635
2. Question: No Solana all time high in 2024? | Event: solana-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.009937799783439612
3. Question: Will a Republic... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in December? | 65,074,940 | 65,100,926 |
44c8a24ddce61451b40a1cf5cdeb503d2f92cf62 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xf59ab9ea10ad31d32596c2107b29bec13770b5ee142a70784327c2ffea916f69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No Solana all time high in 2024? | Event: solana-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.009937799783439612
2. Question: Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach... | no | 0.043074 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? | 65,100,971 | 65,873,790 |
79418de299780beb113598afce14f9b88221f23f | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xc3af3780145b55e1c2357cb208565f2ab2986db46184929978b79d7536bbe6ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.014432952840790152
3. Questi... | no | 0.029766 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | 65,100,971 | 66,041,566 |
4b6b64b2e47b6a350828dbd103d707202d448cfa | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x6b8a66b95e7bc212ff6033bd8a38b1611dfa791d149d80656e880f4a84d596a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.014432952840790152
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00046769470663165217
3. ... | yes | 0.001992 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? | 65,103,486 | 65,846,258 |
12bb3a691f4f5183fb5e9c64e242123c6d9716d3 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xb47f01fb3f6d62db53948850cc1c14bd94799a928fb5bcf41c457bafb981e50e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00046769470663165217
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00967828507205149
3. Qu... | yes | 0.014032 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December? | 65,119,123 | 65,586,195 |
380ce96a7b8a3bcc8252700a0d55a1fc909d084b | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x8dca1694e9af0bdb577a10be15457ea3ea9552d72498d2cc3c5595fe321dd01a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00967828507205149
2. Question: Solana above $200 on November 15? | Event: solana-above-200-on-november-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.003901649739150151
3. Question: Ethereum... | yes | 0.104484 | what-price-will-ripple-hit-in-december | Will Ripple hit in $1.50 in December? | 65,123,899 | 66,058,525 |
cd1cc20a00bc1bef15f52d9705e00d9ff9ffad35 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xe2701c7e39b9e488966d3a81490b501d55b3f8932fea8ded9a8597b187d54c57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $200 on November 15? | Event: solana-above-200-on-november-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.003901649739150151
2. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-november-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004123461895308995
3. Question: Bitcoin above ... | no | 0 | will-ethereum-hit-4000-by-sunday | Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by Sunday? | 65,125,406 | 65,163,397 |
2c9b83fe4fdaf726674f9766acd57eb71418440f | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x3a4804a076bad1351e2b745ac86d32befdf154ebf1dd9b8122eedbf77080ec81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-november-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004123461895308995
2. Question: Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? | Event: bitcoin-above-76000-on-november-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.019053722859365345
3. Question: Will E... | yes | 0.163686 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December? | 65,127,867 | 65,978,289 |
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