sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 β | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 β | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 β | question stringlengths 8 164 β | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M β | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M β |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8d0e41527fe6c1c32f856377f1c4e6714bf77b92 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xbda367f1f2b5cd6243a181b56f7630b64cd9f099537546fba004e2b3b03a7bb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 times April 11β18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-11-18-628 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 150β174 times Apr... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 175β199 times May 2β9? | 71,251,276 | 71,251,276 |
e74ea35c868817f2cd48da55fba7c61392cf0724 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x820cb7e640e07ba871c249db6d17ec0a56c2a6c866fcf5167ceb7e2b3faa6b02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 times April 11β18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-11-18-628 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150β174 times April 11β18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-11-18-628 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 tim... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 200β224 times May 2β9? | 71,277,529 | 71,277,529 |
9106ced33d2aa1e8e3734e43cd8dc5062685f15f | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xd83452a703bea35292eb5b9507b25c685de1cbccf76f544d37151a44a7a3b5f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150β174 times April 11β18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-11-18-628 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 times April 18β25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 175β199 times A... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 2β9? | 71,315,283 | 71,315,283 |
ec51723ec1eb34712f00c128706f88e7f326ba0a | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x14ebc0ede61a12aaad2da1c7c591376ab8a61b9e71c671de49fc653ce6e1999f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 times April 18β25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 175β199 times April 18β25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274 times April... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2β9? | 71,325,110 | 71,325,110 |
ea174a3567472ebcca55b894785f2ad3f2978420 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x594df4f4d61ebafbd334fc5f3af9fe5ad382daccbf99dc83eeac8f33d1810ef6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 175β199 times April 18β25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274 times April 18β25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times April... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 300β324 times May 2β9? | 71,325,110 | 71,325,110 |
6267c3816ec15028c1697327891feefd02a93e76 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x7bedaca7d17a565de42bbf4c0e25535396350bc6026adf1e6c633e3d42aadf63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274 times April 18β25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times April 18β25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Star Wars III' gross more tha... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 250β274 times May 2β9? | 71,325,110 | 71,325,110 |
9034840872bafae660a6539c0ef50342bc9aab02 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xb942003e5c182f905b88302b79368d7891a2d3d418a13f884a52e727e4effb95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times April 18β25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Star Wars III' gross more than $25m on opening weekend? | Event: star-wars-iii-re-release-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 275β299 times May 2β9? | 71,325,110 | 71,325,110 |
bbbbfe716c5f887345035cc971e6d47c5fb792d1 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x0635f8fd0777c284fdde905245bccc8822cf4e68dd3ec88f6f62d83e500308b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Star Wars III' gross more than $25m on opening weekend? | Event: star-wars-iii-re-release-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $28-31m on opening weekend? | Event: accountant-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: ... | no | 0.333333 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | 71,362,650 | 71,362,650 |
ee3188dfbe7f8f9fbc64d8ca0a8bd0839ee54946 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x9e5c5153c2c65a6336c553a17cacff8b1424bf21eece00cab5e0f7718e09ae95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $28-31m on opening weekend? | Event: accountant-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Accountant 2' gross more than $31m on opening weekend? | Event: accountant-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Will Elon tweet 175β199 times May 9β16? | 71,514,370 | 71,514,370 |
600cdbb1bd7f0d48151bd2823eb7204bb36bc132 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x7f7081482972484a2131e081a27740b80e5275117a9e99c20e919f55207b8a81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Accountant 2' gross more than $31m on opening weekend? | Event: accountant-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Will Elon tweet 200β224 times May 9β16? | 71,574,695 | 71,574,695 |
6c1a25402aeec11ffb4831b4bdc5e2c47216bea0 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x5a2acac6842c13863765030ad7e1f8424ebd58aee11fc387be01f131cd78a1c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta hav... | yes | 0.00001 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-june-2025 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? | 71,594,366 | 71,594,366 |
cc4e4a7dc67d48f2b5c7ccaa9bd39ce1e4143463 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xa8a2b8b37564fd45b7c05052bcb389451f96dd34d2e298dbb608949a43a14801 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will A... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 9β16? | 71,596,919 | 71,596,919 |
a5a60454dbf7c4fce7a397df579ebb3a7b83bb0a | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xe19579a3820a96f1cb45323f4b9cc9ebfc9063267848f3e6f48d09a29d967b5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | wisconsin-supreme-court-election-susan-crawford-margin-of-victory | Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | 71,596,919 | 71,596,919 |
6a479dd8806b85713ba1e568a9f38543a683a439 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x0211ab57a06d4940e99e8ab6e1b6376e17670431d7d218a962ff963b489635f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration first? | Event: who-will-leave-trump-administration-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Will Elon tweet 275β299 times May 9β16? | 71,604,003 | 71,604,003 |
50936fdda4a157f209440ac95c3ba0fbdd757f7d | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xc536f335eece80d6529f2ba3ff35df6352882deedbbd53f7c22c12b8b592e4c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration first? | Event: who-will-leave-trump-administration-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9β16? | 71,604,003 | 71,604,003 |
20dadb5544babc2af21b9253aa9fc115aa801850 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275β299 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300β324... | yes | 0.5 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will NicuΘor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,612,675 | 71,612,675 |
5e732bd15aa2b106cdb75d87b8575f89a273afd2 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x9cc508004f3fe1c79ca1ca66cd54d3bff0d60448e5481edd9bf82bfe5d74a1b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275β299 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300β324 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 375β399... | no | 1 | final-destination-bloodlines-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening weekend? | 71,736,820 | 71,736,820 |
c1f57bf395e0d01838902165dad49566eae143b4 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xfd2662f7bfd46c1cba6e2519eab82c2ec291f3296c889b92899f09d1526f79e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300β324 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 375β399 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274... | yes | 1 | final-destination-bloodlines-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend? | 71,736,820 | 71,736,820 |
0426b57dea44a3ead0d92154955c09a2096230ad | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x90ed965b6c94bfe9925b435d77052c794115472d75b9e9f24fd9206ba38824b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 375β399 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 125β149 times May 16β23? | 71,876,523 | 71,876,523 |
397af2d95c2e7743477029ed5eb9f57d3a77da0b | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x38bc2ce41b086fd0c7dcbfaaa3ec48d7d49f67ab52b9f8faa81c2bbe00f2691a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Thunderbolts" Rot... | yes | 0.036672 | will-trump-meet-pope-leo-xiv-before-august | Will Trump meet Pope Leo XIV before August? | 71,878,815 | 71,878,815 |
c368de593c5849c29a32f13cf80dafb79ec9ab15 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x0eeb5b8724035056461244e18c81f6c703ad88950b8d971b63b2d4cf6fab6a32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times April 25βMay 2? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-25-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Event: thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Thun... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 16β23? | 71,908,908 | 71,908,908 |
0a8b3a1c4b27fa6e7458d54fa3e6cf93db946a88 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x6694caca6860bc57b895471d6b5fc253f4504e3848e3771ceb6342da81367716 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Event: thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend? | Event: thunderbolts-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 325β349 times May 16β23? | 71,908,908 | 71,908,908 |
cb10819070070b80f853c320844f34a80bdcc422 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xac24dc105e3a4436470a4080af1afadc8c246eadb2e456e30b98c5f6d1e9ddb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend? | Event: thunderbolts-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tw... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 275β299 times May 16β23? | 71,908,908 | 71,908,908 |
c48d9909b9a32c1c7018b28d72521de6ffdf2507 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xb2502bfb6b523fbcf90edbb7079b806f50779fb1efdac692508711929899a5e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 125β149 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150β174 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 90m ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 300β324 times May 16β23? | 71,908,908 | 71,908,908 |
4f1f9cba1c55cc62fd43ac64bbc23c79406e5502 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xcab5f3d5a78a1afd3e96026b02ba50576e095bd9a2f94ca0b3f770506488cc80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150β174 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 90m and 100m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 250β274 times May 16β23? | 71,908,908 | 71,908,908 |
e5f8304f07989a50c724e4691fd7caa72eb11101 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x0cbd28a6fac43d623030e6108382f5cd2f7f86a8752ff58882170801b88505a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 90m and 100m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 80m and 90m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trai... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 23β30? | 72,162,978 | 72,162,978 |
25b3e3d123bf7c7a2220f63ceb453c19cf047640 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x2798e88d745ac26f03707c41093a99b1a3a3b8a7bc7502147662987a18cb638b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 80m and 90m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 70m and 80m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trail... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 250β274 times May 23β30? | 72,162,978 | 72,162,978 |
f8794a8ef3dc873335f97a580bfeed5d5a83b02a | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x9ff92ba4e9f141866343c632fac573fd0ef3c06a244bc0cf53c87eaecec0a4cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 70m and 80m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998856058208415
2. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 100m and 110m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Will Elon tweet 125β149 times May 23β30? | 72,162,978 | 72,162,978 |
fa7a1fdd85b5c01000974e03b653b7e316f56209 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x373f075edebd123657ad3bfda91eaabd85d81af569f37d2694db902642adbccd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 100m and 110m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-tra... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | 72,209,605 | 72,209,605 |
c3dd19da5c46a8ea36cf60ad70b0e54a52ebffc5 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x6d2f4940373a13567e53de6fd2015186c298249329a5f03771a6b160f5e4a7d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 60m and 70m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999072880817329
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 175β199 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | 72,209,605 | 72,209,605 |
ddf2daa725913f08b344be3e27225808a86b9685 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xc4f949aa2bdc1e20b760ae587591bd4ac5faab3214f862259905a473e78287bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 175β199 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 200β224 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 2β9? | Event: elo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31? | 72,236,834 | 72,236,834 |
fa9d6f1b78e4821f274cb8d042cc8580618e84ac | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x2a842ad6c44e8c4a0b7f303a0b3eb8422536d38b62de355ef2b0dacf0b88f43e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200β224 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2β9? | Event:... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will RafaΕ Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? | 72,274,393 | 72,274,393 |
20c28ab566cbababbacd38f51ccdff7d10bf95b7 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300β324 times May 2β9? | Event:... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | 72,274,393 | 72,274,393 |
394e3e793bb1e5a929655c9fc998eb427a768aa6 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300β324 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274 times May 2β9? | Event:... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will RafaΕ Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 72,274,393 | 72,274,393 |
ac0081fe34ccb04b76029a39f6a3913766ee0317 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x30f262c6a1267418b4804da863df50d5af9a9aaef1e5d972d1e8e191155b987a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300β324 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 275β299 times May 2β9? | Event: elo... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%? | 72,288,559 | 72,288,559 |
fc4d723a47b06b04e02cbc33625416b32de9c4b9 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x9fefd42f82aefca26dd87d69285ad626fdb72fe6f1e1c96fe6890ed938723c95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250β274 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275β299 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Event: ru... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 125β139 times May 30βJune 6? | 72,325,860 | 72,325,860 |
7ed8e83e14448c745975b9ac527bbed55eec41c1 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xc0b0c6e7eda2946abb8d781fb2ae95527a4246eaf0fc19ec2a9dbe73162e569c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275β299 times May 2β9? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 175β199 t... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 140β154 times May 30βJune 6? | 72,328,454 | 72,328,454 |
5a8483bd5ede00aab626a2f27368bcc9afc0ff3a | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xd60593db0ff8c021b58f78c947326ff9b771ad826958dd171667d141f6361a22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 175β199 times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 200β224... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 155β169 times May 30βJune 6? | 72,337,359 | 72,337,359 |
4a61b4b99b16d6031d83465777b025d4143a39b4 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x0a6b077ce7d728406a7ad3d94ca15a8686114573f903888b786b0258773babe6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 175β199 times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 200β224 times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-south-korea-presidential-election | Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election? | 72,339,044 | 72,339,044 |
cb8cbd1ae12890c2d20f3a550f62766f01967686 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xef97b3c0ae4121f2ae1cbda3752885d56f1cd1472a6ec0dc175c7fe0d6ffed2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200β224 times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-june-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.646573609386581e-06
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 22... | yes | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%? | 72,339,044 | 72,339,044 |
0252077ea2a910d45930b12db49ffd3c80b8a5fb | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0xf59b8f3582259daf3ca4d0899b3f628d86e7f467797e8f2afacb597dab26d402 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-june-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.646573609386581e-06
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Susan Crawfor... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-south-korea-presidential-election | Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election? | 72,339,044 | 72,339,044 |
19712c19b57eca1b5fd44239bafd283e3718b5c9 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x481b24a26dae898de7a43b72b314b43a33104e4d46539805f152949cde705ad6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225β249 times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election-susan-crawford-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 200β214 times May 30βJune 6? | 72,407,926 | 72,407,926 |
70e91b9496442b7d78e62da9557a8702767094c5 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x7f61c465515c8e5b23ea61c0b677486b73d0777d4038eef1edb41e9a4b65aebc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election-susan-crawford-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275β299 times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 215β229 times May 30βJune 6? | 72,407,926 | 72,407,926 |
3d3d4f1af5a0a5eec5085f09f5bb5596471b3b6f | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x6009cd63be1742b38865bdaeeb98d39e15bd62be57d51e4788b822bd8576364f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275β299 times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NicuΘor Dan win the Romanian president... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 320β334 times May 30βJune 6? | 72,445,222 | 72,445,222 |
23294abcbeb731a4b79b0e0060d146b99cbce320 | 0x04845c9269382949d7ed8e0ec2cf5f5c219ba23e | 0x4e409368a4ef2a5dbc0dfc6be074612afe709e162c4d8d1924d150d7059f985d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9β16? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NicuΘor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
3. Question: Will 'Final Destin... | no | 1 | from-the-world-of-john-wick-ballerina-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79? | 72,569,458 | 72,569,458 |
85414dd793cc1541de54b1c714d8f9667c672cd7 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x8687c3842445d00e4a62ea9947dc807fa3179d60b347e6dd55dc5941c80ce7a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05?
Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | 69,974,251 | 69,974,251 |
124e43baf4c1db7ac8ff3fe76124673ebf8d19a2 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0xad2af583ca6eebe719cfa17ef8cd96d8fc2af2f803497cdae85435a3e6fc70da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09?
Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | 70,121,064 | 70,121,064 |
ab1cb1112ea21be6d240df7c1b6b332013302a8c | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0xea1df82295170f8647a07e27b64115284c719477a8965cfd11cb4d8aab570f1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10?
Event: uel-... | no | 1 | uel-lyo-mun-2025-04-10 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | 70,163,026 | 70,163,026 |
d4681372b4a9a7b0bf308115fb8dc013e6b6e4ae | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0xfb452a20b70cd3b3739f0ffb422e345073e81954a7c9b059cb8603b0c704eff3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 11? | 70,200,870 | 70,200,870 |
4cf2acdbf2b2d9e92fca9c87168952cf1f4f6d3b | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x1257b269d259036a71c978f316414539916a8a0d3b710dec1a119eb307077e5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on Apr 18? | 70,488,173 | 70,488,173 |
45bb50b2cb162f5ce2ce7b6de9ef50a1b4a57f11 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x1864efd83d0c06a0d2336d229b6f5cfd99ec977871ca680defd5fde290f5b652 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | no | 1 | epl-ast-new-2025-04-19 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-19? | 70,539,056 | 70,539,142 |
bb10da5e5bd6b2dcebc982ccab5ab2664895d70a | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x1bdbd24a91ff187d9e92eef1bd0a9d6a0d4948ab53ef8bb6fa06fb147a1350c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-liv-2025-04-20 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-20? | 70,566,073 | 70,566,073 |
4fe4a07c09e5f12d91389ccdedc8c449090cc11b | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0xd4127031712b6ea6b90b69ccd5ba1c4769e0fbd61ee6c0090405b17afe4e8bc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-not-2025-04-21 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-21? | 70,613,780 | 70,613,780 |
84df09d84b4d003d435ba76dfa25e5bf31adfe43 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x46d97b2af88fdd220693efe03f1c3c0c9770847abcd31e1b2fb26550770f3124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-int-2025-04-30 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? | 70,975,830 | 70,975,830 |
e088d72fddb5cfbfa135a170e4c1ca52047112c9 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x7d38335b8e52f05f4bf2d5e098c879afd29681fc6b65432e220374d16029fab0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | champions-league-top-scorer | Will Serhou Guirassy be the top Champions League scorer? | 71,222,835 | 71,222,835 |
107786b4b663e56db1897100059df87f860fba33 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x7cce4f5eb2eb0573c68718660a07cdcf20b4558e2a4544558ab2dcf8c8f08696 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ars-2025-05-11 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-11? | 71,416,118 | 71,416,118 |
4416b6d11849e3e547a46370c23754336fd2e432 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0xc8e871cbab61467b9bc10d8c9dd4299b8c5748cb1f21623b14d545e57ea590c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-tot-2025-05-16 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16? | 71,621,095 | 71,621,095 |
65f38ecd7bc4532453d4d50e455a423237e52415 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0xdc630bc536394d14c9f744018b9927692ba4323e88fb2e08ff2b6f184ffd1609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | no | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-05-20 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-20? | 71,779,121 | 71,779,121 |
c5bdf43ca78b07b6101fba9687daa7e365a1984b | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0xfecaec613a61cfca1db72debca0c4203ffd142f1498b402035eaa81eb5b67373 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-may-21-5pm-et-788 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 21 at 5 PM ET? | 71,820,400 | 71,820,400 |
7c9e81de5d6c260b650a6b4787ede51921989bb4 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0xab13929ce230368809975982fa37a6c2d074d4b36f5494b106b04e7458e7dc3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-23-5pm-et-117 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on May 24 at 5 PM ET? | 71,952,642 | 71,952,642 |
321cab4e07c1972dd43aaea3a16477cbc969ccf9 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x0554866dfd0e455e679f9aaf2217595a1ac8851728459814967c736f5a506188 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-25-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? | 71,982,132 | 71,982,132 |
1e0b4773bf921790a5e711ff0f4ba9cd5375b37d | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x0c25c534c9c92f9024b754f604bb579e59ff07c7eb5896bebdb6e6c709202269 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | 72,056,617 | 72,056,617 |
fe11768243fd74109f93ab7201d21bc240c3be34 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x00996e241063a5b261fbbff1a5f65c50907b01a363f719e4dd60a4f4d007cd3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 29 at 5 PM ET? | 72,147,438 | 72,147,438 |
f7f39fb1494f240da20c0b841fa8789beb17540d | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x902e518669375979ea4480397ba36feeb4f1110417ffc149c6c30f75385840d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,183,452 | 72,183,452 |
45506d5e64d028a25901ea0d1c62fa0cd5b4e6a7 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x7beceb04f7b1d4f0dde80b58c6f43c23b8ad54b21c693e172c974f480b46483c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,235,141 | 72,235,141 |
77cbe7e94de8d664ff52fa112d67f41deb548890 | 0x04c77cfe8654f56c87b9b0e71278be4d14fbaf7f | 0x6702e719c57b50b2cfe4758c86ae5fea2c207f5e43083a5e7d49f044b50e7c25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? | Event: uel-lyo-mun-202... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | 72,308,220 | 72,308,220 |
5336b6eefda05ea4c9242d45ffe85b1130a53c91 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x39d45b454dcf932767962ad9cbd858c5a6ec21d4d48318a484775b2e83264467 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.105578 | super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | 76,578,047 | 76,578,047 |
ceced616f85cad80c73f80695b79d503733e9508 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x635433ec830cb7912197779a1551e0a7df689c006c0324eb28f4631479b3d730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
Target market:
Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?
Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Out... | no | 0 | will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | 76,659,791 | 77,091,277 |
8f9b5677e137b923242865f505c72b070002ab30 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xd8dc35e690ede1455c476595bc9bddd5c354ff86c8455a2d530ad94673740d7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: US government shutdown... | yes | 0.004969 | us-government-shutdown-in-2025 | US government shutdown in 2025? | 76,679,815 | 77,091,275 |
49737528e38a017e06c2d5f322f7b3d6a243a6b1 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xae3ae899f35e79ea05b5a753bafc3001ff0d0de6af7898d2f3d4f0f13d2b56c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0.224862 | nfc-champion-1 | Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship? | 76,721,125 | 77,973,394 |
f83f5b76ce4b52d065d670d316d4036a14439c10 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x1a0debc740123978f634f330d0ab3c4b19c40e1b910b34929fe128b8fe1f7bcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | yes | 0.367808 | nfc-champion-1 | Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? | 76,721,125 | 78,319,857 |
f7b5631dfa3164ddbbab4367a3b9ea0843f02de4 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x375fab1843b3fcff2ea9625f6342d7d00efbd6fbbe76a971f5a40f2f9f2cc6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | will-kmx-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-25-1pt03 | Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | 76,760,139 | 76,803,195 |
40a30e770506a71d62b6ce0370c7e084a552e4c6 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x658f4fb8a90904e0277151fdc6c5123427525316d83c56f8dac8dd4b238c7b26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | will-ctas-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-24-1pt18 | Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | 76,760,139 | 78,793,521 |
2fc7b28254cc232ce54fcf4aab7d6ef20d5904b4 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xa89594751c8b774331768093b4659bb7cf056c285500745831dd3f01f85f1a44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0.639578 | nfc-champion-1 | Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship? | 76,803,195 | 77,456,362 |
415c1dc48a8defcd5c794743ecb75fa653cb9247 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xc36f2cdf54c1530d6510fd1fa74d8396e1757525c90f0b1b84a200c12a9fc0a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | yes | 0.17695 | nfc-champion-1 | Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? | 76,803,195 | 78,799,171 |
cff98f110fbdf82e601659b7dedcd1ae2c495b67 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xb89baccda5af9c6cbc15c029df25e26ba5bbcc515563e85f15fa50790cc0ec6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | will-jbl-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-25-2pt9 | Will Jabil (JBL) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | 76,823,850 | 76,823,850 |
0346b3c2499d27d97b407da14118ec4f1514bc1b | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x0fc38daa09129109a63f738e12d3c2eaa7e9c222d6fa8a570165333a296076f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | jnj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-14-2pt75 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,091,277 | 77,978,348 |
add3b5065eb1085d108cd49874bc563c742235f5 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xf2f335403a45632bc9b48a50e3adecdcc0ccd843733eae481a00ec4c9eb0a627 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0.596467 | afc-champion-1 | Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? | 77,091,277 | 78,150,595 |
f99dde74bde0345b37d7195f8875a100f18a2ae2 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x552ab7a1211e8587ae5262486cae7efc18ac64c280733bc57144a8b043a7acbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | yes | 1 | wnba-champion-527 | Will the Indiana Fever win the 2025 WNBA Championship? | 77,167,199 | 77,167,199 |
4ff5b7a0713877f64927501adf5b16dac486e846 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xb4fc7085019ffdf2c9c0c70581d16340c4e99b85d091dfbec32340c81785eb62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | dpz-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-14-3pt96 | Will Dominoβs Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,250,550 | 77,690,504 |
abddce5b7db3e474ebec5ed6828a4227e43afff1 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x1d3dfd3ff61891cb3e0bf490e0c4156966c84ecff10a1cc375a25cc4475ce33d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | mkc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-07-0pt82 | Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,250,552 | 77,292,304 |
13946fbd6dea6dfa6fdc73e54c02662cb9e28084 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x410d2367daf773da955eea6e729c3356180202f7791e5c6384feecffb569d7b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference? | 77,250,552 | 78,411,770 |
4fc0afbe0316625aebab5e1fdaed4adafabfaafc | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x0e34be3ee9cb4203fae20b289dfc9a9370f0045ab3fb2e1fa4e6fb82596c678f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0.183099 | nfc-champion-1 | Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? | 77,250,552 | 78,799,169 |
dc42207af6023de377f3c76e25af4936204ffdcf | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x392b41c9b513ca90d11687a48c832d72e1b417974801b761f8bc95ba2f53f425 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0.483006 | nfc-champion-1 | Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? | 77,250,552 | 78,799,169 |
54080f0bed487d0ca56a8e4fe3a6ced4b6e30729 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x056314a7c55a7e586cd8c75eb6d8c325ea6ed74d812d22b459569e0f63431d93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 1 | last-unbeaten-nfl-team-399 | Will Philadelphia Eagles be the last unbeaten team? | 77,311,040 | 77,311,040 |
c0b8a59ab6a815e66a8ab104700b790ed095b00b | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x0dae99fd3e9609419865b1b615ad22e89180bc572fc4d53160a88b678e071791 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 1 | last-unbeaten-nfl-team-399 | Will Buffalo Bills be the last unbeaten team? | 77,334,232 | 77,334,232 |
f52213c19d8d3f58772ddcd8d72bf3110c4a52d7 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x41010e119c211a44503b83370da7be84bd4e3eee48ee4e836b5958125735d62d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-15-2pt06 | Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,456,362 | 77,725,545 |
9fc192ca5a383155561d47723a0f3f5ae39e2e54 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x0f18d1e749bab471b8a4d2201250a067a8e211cf4ecf664b6435ae75c6c50925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | schw-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-16-1pt21 | Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,553,313 | 77,796,932 |
c7e1aa9b230963155860d146e82d8ba055ecaddc | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xc1073297098b4dcfeb5741797d7e3a0873ffe7874b14a99d5f6eefb83df70a49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference? | 77,553,315 | 78,342,273 |
ad6cd855d649daeb7d083a761008276f38a0f484 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xc274f712e56f0be1fa161557c773897784f77fa0cffd238e5561917a9f58b863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | bac-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-15-0pt93 | Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,553,319 | 77,725,545 |
f42e90d81b491142c92cfbdcb42f01c7c8e21b78 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x4eb7f04b1f6b2ca418fc1b088f04ded59a2f10074af56750b699076f3f3b2c5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | mat-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-1pt07 | Will Mattel (MAT) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,690,497 | 77,887,000 |
bc138f67aead467e43fc63a12b72f98035a60c85 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xbbd9bf0e135638e608261797209989d4ced475ece27ecd2ffb15cd86ee4cfdaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | yes | 0.393181 | afc-champion-1 | Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? | 77,690,497 | 77,973,394 |
c8dc5ee0955125c1a58acf71c2e0e3c6e95971c9 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xf6e24791df46f2dfb069dd01e3031db44976f8c9ea91960691a3b6649dfcacfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | omc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-21-2pt17 | Will Omnicom Group (OMC) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,690,497 | 78,019,902 |
20f4cb23302bd141af295d681280e270e438bb3f | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x4eec1dadeed73cacafeb72c4bebb7563a41c979b31f35f180b5be9c1440fdb78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | hlt-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-22-2025-2pt05 | Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,886,999 | 78,032,624 |
e473f2a2d50b7222317d5de031a4cf6b0fc4505c | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xf087b321286ec43be60d9e2cee908bc39002360896a86122ccb20d86dbdeb69e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | noc-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-21-2025-6pt49 | Will Northrop Grumman (NOC) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,887,000 | 77,973,393 |
3e421658581053c5e80990fb54e4400de1a53822 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x06fbb392e84a4fd0e669a69569e74de8b203b7452939100bcc8cedd07b16601c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | pm-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-2pt1 | Will Philip Morris International (PM) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,887,000 | 77,978,348 |
b7fcc11adb15583d642408a8a048514ef7b176f7 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x22b76c016f0461a63ad874a04a3c30094e1b33d476d1d1cb53d85c9d33a78982 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10557791220417827
2. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | E... | no | 0 | ndaq-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-0pt83 | Will Nasdaq (NDAQ) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,887,000 | 77,978,348 |
a65c57288aaf5fa5c83b5a3e965ada0653af9b21 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x51b35684d2937730df80e0e55c13451c85bfecbd58dcb509720b71d24001c6db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? | Event: will-tesla-acquire-xai-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | Event: us-government-shutdown-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.004968515401461533
3. Question: Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championshi... | no | 0 | cb-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-5pt78 | Will Chubb (CB) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,887,004 | 77,973,394 |
f9f6339571315ff7f1c5d0cb66717ed267c4dae5 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xece7f644bc968acd0f2bbd1fb4113fbd5dacc82731b20b120517e5fe0e1b18ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US government shutdown in 2025? | Event: us-government-shutdown-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.004968515401461533
2. Question: Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.22486205522972708
3. Question: Will the Packers win the NFC ... | no | 0 | aal-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-23-2025-neg0pt28 | Will American Airlines Group (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,887,004 | 78,107,620 |
e543b8997ca0eb9398205ea8cbe04ef1a1f8a3ae | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x577fa60f408f087861983225a39397d90293f5f223fe772ab07c2c7fabfa8f13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.22486205522972708
2. Question: Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3678084467205839
3. Question: Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference? | 77,887,004 | 78,342,273 |
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