sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bd6d0f745d72083b05b233936ac14cb66dcf781b | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x57efc7def55937345a30c5161405d6ed42a02958fc74166f284365a63c4a1e7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? | Event: bitcoin-above-76000-on-november-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.019053722859365345
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.787181252593766e-05
3. Questi... | yes | 0.415258 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Will Ethereum hit $4,200.00 in December? | 65,137,928 | 65,978,289 |
2f6f0a31f22534f97bc1cc0a1fa5985af84aa5df | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x9e5fa7b9e370eef01006b068f47a1cfecd197470c4eaa3bc3a25ce4ea5786795 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.787181252593766e-05
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06450882399600352
3. ... | yes | 0 | will-bitcoin-dip-below-100k-by-sunday-1 | Will Bitcoin dip below $100k by Sunday? | 65,165,529 | 65,174,631 |
7b1e1d20201d9d13003a35b2e7e908a0ee166858 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x206f4a5f8fab726af0bf127c4003c9a66b9c1f6bbb8ed1157492c01d6d75a2ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06450882399600352
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.012690001586426011
3. Qu... | no | 0.010281 | ripple-above-2pt39-on-december-13 | Ripple above $2.39 on December 13? | 65,169,690 | 65,447,292 |
d9b124acfccf26b40c686416992da14f694378c9 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xa8019c363268cbe8864c032b133631c5fd2e0bf437135cdbff7c97903532a154 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.012690001586426011
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.044161406032027076
3. Qu... | no | 0.002438 | bitcoin-above-100000-on-december-13 | Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? | 65,174,631 | 65,447,292 |
519f3c6cdc79ba1e4ba980ecc01b029f503f7bb3 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x73957b07d24cbda2f18be4d29881ffc04fbc847ac67f7b52d5238d7051c82cc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.044161406032027076
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.021652923035145984
3. Q... | no | 0.003437 | solana-above-240-on-december-13 | Solana above $240 on December 13? | 65,197,150 | 65,438,334 |
f9e6810ffeee4d206f51b8d263faa5539e9de86a | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xd34184e3964e967189835e6ca51a9b05ec81e93b643ea9037668d4e8bac2112b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.021652923035145984
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04285624141712051
3. Q... | no | 0.002981 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Will Ethereum hit $3,400 in December? | 65,397,897 | 65,655,697 |
aafc433b052e523c605188553211ceda76a2dfb0 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x64289ccf065892c754f0e2e6c0c1f9071317c966978666ba317cf7ec31b60af7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04285624141712051
2. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin a... | yes | 0.00036 | solana-above-225-on-december-20 | Solana above $225 on December 20? | 65,645,663 | 65,664,150 |
671af2dc461a623830baba0d36ba33d88d37a3c1 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x1d2ecf863d42d132b0a02251e78fe62f5832855bc0623f33e04bf555994896f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House | Event: balance-of-power-2024-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? | Event: bitcoin-above-90000-on-november-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04752252775823514
3. Question: Ethereum above $3... | no | 0.000001 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-today-12-20-24 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | 65,743,117 | 65,743,117 |
fc2333338d7ccd98367b5aa259f4eeba06530706 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x1d9a6336944cd6499d460540535d0d1d529003340403dbf7dfa565e95b05ffbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? | Event: bitcoin-above-90000-on-november-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04752252775823514
2. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on November 22? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-november-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05407987943689193
3. Question: Ripple ab... | yes | 0.019702 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-sunday-dec-22 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? | 65,743,117 | 65,837,591 |
2904acd708ba79c07165bb3034a84bcad8d69739 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x94ce768de3b55e3411015b90737a7daf54f8e3614b929b380bead622195e5ec7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,000 on November 22? | Event: ethereum-above-3000-on-november-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05407987943689193
2. Question: Ripple above $0.87 on November 22? | Event: ripple-above-0pt87-on-november-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06000293425852455
3. Question: Will Bitcoin ... | yes | 0.051536 | ethereum-above-3400-on-december-27 | Ethereum above $3,400 on December 27? | 65,764,187 | 66,041,501 |
61bd16d181ca56ee36a19a20da7ca47fb21e49a8 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x979978268fd6693e4c7856ac93f1d6d6f23f8747109f6586160aa0022f85d480 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ripple above $0.87 on November 22? | Event: ripple-above-0pt87-on-november-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06000293425852455
2. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.003527106803924981
3. Question: Will Bitcoin h... | no | 0.010172 | bitcoin-above-97000-on-december-27 | Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? | 65,764,187 | 66,041,501 |
3c51e67824f3079a2ad823ddf4aad250e2f33d50 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xe180b9bb27e2c212890ba8444bc6956f8f681c89fbe0e420b24593ced304b25e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.003527106803924981
2. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-november-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.004151481370343101
3. Question: Will Bitcoin h... | no | 0.029172 | ripple-above-2pt20-on-december-27 | Ripple above $2.20 on December 27? | 65,764,187 | 66,041,501 |
9bddd72f9011f41c570134ae3e7461e52053c37d | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xe8c2b93ac2887b255cc0021631f5ee72e7045bfd22e9331c940c48ad2f6a3f6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-november-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.004151481370343101
2. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02080987902613855
3. Question: Bitcoin above $100,0... | no | 0.142705 | solana-above-190-on-december-27 | Solana above $190 on December 27? | 65,795,456 | 66,041,501 |
62f9c117f9af85ee37a319b3ea35d7f7cae5b7e2 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x5f7842f5d3be987a52470265bd1909421cae8c318d6487fb38b902b0c5055d4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02080987902613855
2. Question: Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? | Event: bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.593877564683179e-05
3. Question: Ethereum abo... | yes | 0.010056 | ethereum-above-3300-on-january-3 | Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? | 66,041,566 | 66,266,060 |
f80661ea3d8fb505864b091cf4bdab1947ea9f58 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xc201255ac4fd4ca73d38eb331681dd9c4597fc85ed52a89ef664fa399a2f185a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? | Event: bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.593877564683179e-05
2. Question: Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29? | Event: ethereum-above-3300-on-november-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.010505329151244967
3. Question: Ethe... | yes | 0.128766 | bitcoin-above-94000-on-january-3 | Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? | 66,041,566 | 66,266,060 |
b96cdd714db95eb4b7b007e7160ab392eb049b38 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x97480fb1ea30619d6682bedb183289eccf60da180311c8ba45985dcba13a05d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29? | Event: ethereum-above-3300-on-november-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.010505329151244967
2. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-december-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.002699226843498991
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | yes | 0.642374 | solana-above-185-on-january-3 | Solana above $185 on January 3? | 66,041,566 | 66,275,194 |
bec0f4146d140d7373877f0d673c9f9fce5457be | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x131ec938bb5f143a0d345349ae02624d82207e960ca0a6caa40ccd5b3b5a7a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? | Event: ethereum-above-3500-on-december-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.002699226843498991
2. Question: Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? | Event: bitcoin-above-98000-on-december-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.009777627936379448
3. Question: Ripple abo... | yes | 0.016818 | ripple-above-2pt15-on-january-3 | Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? | 66,144,021 | 66,275,194 |
91f4ea230a23b69536d397dce5f09e967edf2465 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xc85fe2698d8434f9ebd0fa82d75fe2da36edfc81a354b85fef1582d889e5655f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? | Event: bitcoin-above-98000-on-december-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.009777627936379448
2. Question: Ripple above $1.69 on December 6? | Event: ripple-above-1pt69-on-december-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001781099269981706
3. Question: Will Bitcoin h... | yes | 0.007324 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-by-march-31 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? | 66,195,948 | 70,583,488 |
02430841bc021b28f61b3ce13e41de01f5ce53ce | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x3b781ece48b1fb8090db7881c8d29956e8e784fc558ada927800c42586a39a4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ripple above $1.69 on December 6? | Event: ripple-above-1pt69-on-december-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001781099269981706
2. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-friday-12-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16704514181273913
3. Question: Will Ethereum h... | no | 0.043394 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-by-march-31 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? | 66,234,634 | 66,687,678 |
381adc9602152824a27ba320f7c3ebe4d59e79e8 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x44c5b4d851e8c06698c13b54e8ba33e37637e13bdb3f375ce0b6727b2aa06b48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-by-friday-12-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16704514181273913
2. Question: Will Ethereum hit $3,500 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.0960177777349335e-05
3. Question: W... | yes | 0.061642 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-january | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by January 31, 2025? | 66,266,060 | 66,801,986 |
56b1ce1b13f75e43b1d8b759b5408b1d6f6ff1ce | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xbf881a6f9c9917526b62e0d4b0d1ad43973088d295d87a9a604c2652195cc637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum hit $3,500 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.0960177777349335e-05
2. Question: Will Ethereum hit $3,800 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bitc... | yes | 0.055207 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-january | Will Solana hit $275 by January 31, 2025? | 66,266,060 | 66,882,004 |
35f1abb2c0580c00b4a67d6a3bed9e505abedafb | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x1f44bd0ee7132279c4f0a4db305650f84a3abccdf5d6bf3f96bdcbcd7119ff64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum hit $3,800 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in December? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000... | yes | 0.012586 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-by-march-31 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? | 66,304,709 | 70,583,488 |
bf2e31f62ceb9ad29885897ce3b80cb628a49fa5 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xda9411ee13b1f6d9d58a72bb77fcc70fa4623afafc1beecb5714fdc9edbf986b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in December? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0430742352580181
3. Question: Will Bitco... | no | 0.096352 | ripple-above-2pt40-on-january-10 | Ripple above $2.40 on January 10? | 66,315,484 | 66,606,923 |
b082c9af0eb066ee68e44acbcaf2e443d9745824 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x47a70190b3316ea98c3cc52349537b6fdc7180a89d4c055dc35308713ccf6fe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0430742352580181
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02976647878389536
3. Ques... | yes | 0.058526 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-january | Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? | 66,333,336 | 67,227,564 |
5eafa59ae19bd30e60863fb785c693b11efdbd2b | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xb66c3477f83da99a18bfb067ff538fab2374e38a9cf40e531d78a4b233da051e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02976647878389536
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001992057497879427
3. Q... | yes | 0.296922 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-january | Will Solana hit $250 by January 31, 2025? | 66,410,117 | 66,882,004 |
d21e089614b822948e654d327f015239b1892f03 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x49390379c99ddc1aca765352d219e7bc315b07e4cddd792bb6906c2f524b8d06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001992057497879427
2. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01403211527225384
3.... | no | 0.009401 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-january | Will Solana hit $225 by January 31, 2025? | 66,420,496 | 66,843,867 |
123ac0fbcdcd7f77ce19f684d266b27c25b9b101 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x54789d52943aecb23f549a290b852c43516b0197c1d90d3a85ceb1338fb0a1e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01403211527225384
2. Question: Will Ripple hit in $1.50 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ripple-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.10448376068794445
3. Ques... | yes | 0.000224 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-by-march-31 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by March 31? | 66,421,079 | 66,658,759 |
cde07176132c3d98e29b7109f32e0c75560ea891 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x20dbe01ca6d9787c9d203484ee77ffdf47c13a454ce785d9fd70c9cf8eb1fc62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ripple hit in $1.50 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ripple-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.10448376068794445
2. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by Sunday? | Event: will-ethereum-hit-4000-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,300... | no | 0.463774 | solana-above-215-on-january-10 | Solana above $215 on January 10? | 66,421,588 | 66,453,376 |
f7a15c3f62948ca12f9570e32565c64b355c191b | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x7c662197ecf9c6c2441c1cb57e8c8a761a5782eeb0c219dc14daf3f165d188a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by Sunday? | Event: will-ethereum-hit-4000-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.16368649740355787
3. Question: Will Ethereum hit $... | no | 0.051557 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-january | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? | 66,421,724 | 67,413,037 |
746e17d849c411a12b643e9866252ce93b1223cd | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x78dd44195111f89210b059180792a1fa156d1f211392e76575dc36846e815987 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.16368649740355787
2. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,200.00 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.41525804333279065
3.... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-january | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? | 66,422,866 | 67,149,817 |
9ecb29a35c927bb99c147155ac9636b698718acf | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x5b2d327b5ee6390593bb907407f1adfcb6cccb13c1b5486bb13e3d5b3476e863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum hit $4,200.00 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.41525804333279065
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k by Sunday? | Event: will-bitcoin-dip-below-100k-by-sunday-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.2733732203294053e-08
3... | yes | 0.154596 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-january | Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? | 66,423,435 | 67,149,817 |
f281252c4a6228158a190419702bd5383baa22d0 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xe84982410314f815056eb56397b0d0cceeb8b16777d0667ab6f0e373a5c2cc19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k by Sunday? | Event: will-bitcoin-dip-below-100k-by-sunday-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.2733732203294053e-08
2. Question: Ripple above $2.39 on December 13? | Event: ripple-above-2pt39-on-december-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.010280520543019828
3. Question: B... | no | 0.163564 | bitcoin-above-97000-on-january-10 | Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? | 66,425,985 | 66,606,923 |
16574468887e774906d3773e04c88f3f9c2742f9 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x8d29692749f246da11fb329a2ecaf95d08cc6c97d3f8ebe0c052d1ce42057595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ripple above $2.39 on December 13? | Event: ripple-above-2pt39-on-december-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.010280520543019828
2. Question: Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-100000-on-december-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0024384238994828874
3. Question: Solana a... | yes | 0.051057 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-january | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? | 66,453,385 | 67,232,208 |
d5842221c994fd6e31af19b66d22c1ad18a47cc0 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0xcdab757d22e9ca242163475ed1426e6a8d2c9a579b39198f7cec223024ee2e89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-100000-on-december-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0024384238994828874
2. Question: Solana above $240 on December 13? | Event: solana-above-240-on-december-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0034365185272217554
3. Question: Will Ether... | no | 0.236663 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-january | Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by January 31, 2025? | 66,455,402 | 66,658,759 |
972df9844b6aeed02c14e6a824764a0018c38072 | 0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7 | 0x0f3131c874579825ecdbbda8c7aeed071aa908d7c993792c393285900e68906f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on December 13? | Event: solana-above-240-on-december-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0034365185272217554
2. Question: Will Ethereum hit $3,400 in December? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0029805477312711843
3. Question: Solana... | no | 0.041324 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-january | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? | 66,455,897 | 67,374,831 |
cf09f08b397aa354fd05a405bb75561b0e0f99cb | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x9120a9f5f93e1746d822dd3c8554d88bf9a53216f10007e363acb78406bf0ac1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez
Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | martinez | 1 | atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | 78,587,564 | 78,587,564 |
70cfef656776b06f4484e1a2de692b8f3bd43232 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x751ca25043da33cab8c9142c0172ce955bd4a8bb6a162c4f87ddaa83325bf21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?
Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output s... | no | 1 | ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,596,119 | 78,596,119 |
d5b30998ea0f62aacb62be9dde15f71c9b07c881 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x7a9951a09c31fc3ac2815a614def5f14da2a85da08488a93604ebbbf62c95eea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2... | yes | 1 | elc-der-hul-2025-11-04 | Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,600,041 | 78,600,041 |
a77bb8e976eac7cb4839bd52a81d4df80aaa0363 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x2bd0bd38e6748adeef028f3539235b94c24e9b67b1e15691748a4b2096e5c0cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | elc-bri-bbr-2025-11-04 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,600,370 | 78,600,370 |
f9a2be34d14b584df95685e396f6ddfdd973d827 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x9f64169bf4dc397b5113271d545627696aa8ac8393c79a473d4504451603967e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Will Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? | 78,638,961 | 78,638,961 |
3a2b55b32d3c7aff5b55a2b461d299c14b0a199a | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x6170d1e2b23483654cbbb7485d5c6f24bd8f55fc258a2c2bb0e343e1d035d717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? | 78,643,419 | 78,643,419 |
4fbe67bf20ce6051a8e2ba24fef965c43924667b | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xf61eec0d13966a6a8c8776f536550bdfdc447b0a8b21ae6274fa8008770d8c8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-ath-2025-11-05 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-05? | 78,643,481 | 78,643,481 |
f50638d13a57cde033f6e1c4026190336e5905d3 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xc7badca7470be581bf9e07c7d538f1b6fd30a952b1ef8b9bbfd6dbcd2f033a99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | no | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,643,482 | 78,643,482 |
dc833f66765e9ad4c395046367149acb0d35c9e9 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xbaaa39bbec96c4304a8fc933378632e335107e9bcf60c7d621ff0cb5c5fc7f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | no | 1 | ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | 78,643,863 | 78,643,863 |
bfce2493c517d26de731df9c6f950a328eed229f | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x22f97d5172eb8780616fb90a020b8a291e259d0fc58bea7a3861237072cafcbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | uel-crv1-lil2-2025-11-06 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,682,607 | 78,682,607 |
9665782da7d21a3060a0e8cced9e0c21c1b7e542 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x6ca8b8d3bec6b5f0ef4744258fdeecad7042dc1a2cedadee2483c4e9d27e7de4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | no | 1 | uel-pao3-yob1-2025-11-06 | Will PAOK win on 2025-11-06? | 78,686,256 | 78,686,256 |
7326571b05c6855f05368ad8ff974936b4aba710 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x4432e2d342b13c397fe1e9d56a3b6d2abfa7ee6676a1d2fdf49d9899470090a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | uel-ftc1-lud1-2025-11-06 | Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2025-11-06? | 78,686,319 | 78,686,319 |
6882159417335dd209a16123bb6b50d949ad2121 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xb8580e841b709da16072aa42a5434d0f7d7ae85377139562b274a1a1a4444e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | no | 1 | uel-bol1-bra1-2025-11-06 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-06? | 78,686,383 | 78,686,383 |
05ee3c489aeb68720895e8acd98872188c29f948 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xdb79649693c3445dc03f1b182688b8efdcdf3fb197028e6025d8e98a00b35499 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | uel-pao3-yob1-2025-11-06 | Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-11-06? | 78,686,383 | 78,686,383 |
ec98217f2ac21f02919ef5bb8d7f550b9ba1b452 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xc7140af820a655d88846bdadffb22726d7f096819915ad3c6bd78fa138646c1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | uel-stu3-fey1-2025-11-06 | Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-06? | 78,686,468 | 78,686,468 |
9aac33de0d1e6ecc1936009658dc3fbb73e8205e | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xe3a368982fcbb793aef6663427eb26b48566a8b681f6d665ccd94f1a0937290e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | no | 1 | uel-bet1-lyo1-2025-11-06 | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-11-06? | 78,686,468 | 78,686,468 |
dcee8c07768b6a39e2c30c505ac8627515358330 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x99c5225af440485a23b0cebf5be006dd49ce08ad96d89f1e2616a0fff0da1946 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | uel-bet1-lyo1-2025-11-06 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-06? | 78,686,469 | 78,686,469 |
4440898aef77d0fc03f6aa11c10aad7b7bb23a57 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x147f9dc35f246d0a458575c31d8b700002111eb561d7bd83f2407f0779a58775 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | col-lin-rij-2025-11-06 | Will Lincoln Red Imps FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,686,530 | 78,686,530 |
e08ea48d0e1993e808a105f5b5c3385005f242a2 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x2ca9d3ecc6bb27cac0c4bbec28be6ec12151730c2e029b013fa0eb133b44ed73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,713,086 | 78,713,086 |
8cd4d375ee223b5a8e1a06ec23378608d5262457 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x1cc5bed37428ee97f1b643caf6bbc2c1da904858fe1e36ff859e80e5366c1ad4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Will Werder Bremen vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? | 78,728,800 | 78,728,800 |
8842ec63c21b91111099961f7c1c994df5cd0434 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x86c515e6d1bb9e852347c8dc9350365ecf4da047667a794cc00173dd7d9473e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | lal-elc-rso-2025-11-07 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | 78,729,644 | 78,729,644 |
9da98e4919f4f7c3a98ab7de776d136e5d9aac56 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x3a656a847db769c88a6a493d506cce71ba3dda8fa15d2b7326a7b3065d2495a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | kor-dae-gwa-2025-11-08 | Will Gwangju FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,745,781 | 78,745,781 |
9d5d643334fae4119d4c8c1ca7838d54d659e514 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xa821f4e34d8f8c8558e74a8d9d03f6fe098d2789942aaf9571fc8a61145d315e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | ja2-con-oit-2025-11-08 | Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo win on 2025-11-08? | 78,745,844 | 78,745,844 |
0a6167157856b15a319261b6fd3d2552f70f43cf | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x5194ca936739dbd634c3a9bdc8092f868326c120a6d476ece9531430b14a1558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | spl-neo-nsr-2025-11-08 | Will NEOM SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw? | 78,762,010 | 78,762,010 |
a39dfa2f3ceb011a1967bb6f9cdff0fa3694bc28 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x940aa35bf6a44e724a0ede0380c6a86e7d9ecae9634869428626ca02ba48164c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | sea-com-cag-2025-11-08 | Will Cagliari win on 2025-11-08? | 78,762,839 | 78,762,839 |
bf0e62308974a66d85c3da193fa416717a528f15 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xb889e20318b5a18442f653aa5c7f8cf32e3a6cab91c8d3a59e284aa4b6e38ef6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bur-2025-11-08 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,588 | 78,764,588 |
f7e3cd2fec563a7e7c733dfef16aa1825624799e | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xb0a1a47dbabaf3715fb0d29a0e731b57e3f53175d47d41332de3aa5a40425250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | elc-sot-swe-2025-11-08 | Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,835 | 78,764,835 |
5cb245236afc5134e798014c8dca1915916603b8 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xa98329885032bcb59125000bb2f62721676c0bd2896ba39f81457a0cdc34524d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | elc-wba-oxf-2025-11-08 | Will Oxford United FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,765,270 | 78,765,270 |
f29b5ddcbd85d1db90f1ad2be88d05f56bba08d4 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x83c3219f7e6226329af9c0c641dd3cfacf5601f104a8c8c4cfaef70e976a58e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | no | 1 | epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | 78,773,758 | 78,773,758 |
51cf7a9ddc142cf7ced98f6bc88b696d319fcd10 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xe57dc3b1eeb93d297874f433e7d54fb0c94038adc93e91189eaf86b62a113a87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | yes | 1 | arg-rac-def-2025-11-08 | Will Racing Club vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw? | 78,773,758 | 78,773,758 |
66f7c6d40bd9b42eae9ec2e78ac72ac01d3501f7 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x367b6d352992d56b424ec1a5dd423a6848140187d356a8dd63ff27abdbc07134 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Pedro Martinez | Event: atp-giron-martine-2025-11-02 | Choice: martinez | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | ... | no | 1 | mex-tig-asl-2025-11-08 | Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-11-08? | 78,779,382 | 78,779,382 |
75a2d6f08dbbcd88b9d22564e10970ad635215c7 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x69e0115fc629cbae7c4db60f7b06016244b3dd59c86a3312bcf1d08ae51467d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: elc-der-hul-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: elc-bri-bbr-2025-1... | yes | 1 | arg-sms-lan-2025-11-08 | Will CA San Martín de San Juan win on 2025-11-08? | 78,781,422 | 78,781,422 |
8b2717bf450459072cbed5f8b32be2fe69b4392d | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xcffb4b9aa1e32a9157478a492318d3ac321b5167e4ff88085436402edd118737 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: elc-der-hul-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: elc-bri-bbr-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? | Event: ucl-p... | yes | 1 | bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,051 | 78,815,051 |
347ec56ccbb4aa30f224c961422cf86de08f9552 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xef1cf78cf89964704410671d819f30c07997b5be6499d2bee17eb001365ee470 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: elc-bri-bbr-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? | Event: ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? | Ev... | no | 1 | sea-int-laz-2025-11-09 | Will Inter win on 2025-11-09? | 78,816,634 | 78,816,634 |
e1cd4125f579cb6307c30887a8c4b65cc2ab1f27 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xe1ffb7672852c242bcc7eeb63c8f832eb75a7fa3ef4480781ed97dc7c1eae09b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? | Event: ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-05? | Even... | no | 1 | fl1-lyo-psg-2025-11-09 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,816,696 | 78,816,696 |
0eb3e4b2e2b2e5150e7439df2a23b1da48c197ee | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-new-ath-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | Event: u... | no | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,817,508 | 78,817,508 |
3a41dbaf3f43045c70e22e25e0412a6997c75aae | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0xb75f07adcfd0e4f498e57c483c736b5856aaa77f0d61bb73478b4ebd17190656 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-new-ath-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: u... | no | 1 | por-scb-mor-2025-11-09 | Will SC Braga win on 2025-11-09? | 78,818,466 | 78,818,466 |
155ef9c70b3f3a80c6e4d03960ecc96290be3247 | 0x281624d441f5d6999f005724757efefc2a8c0730 | 0x516f48091a7dbac257123212f28fcfb821aaf232d66f79e4de6ae8ccd823320d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-cr... | no | 1 | mls-sdg-por-2025-11-09 | Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,827,103 | 78,827,103 |
db0b1de54aadeededc6a9dfa41beedb90cbf28b8 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0xf5ce50b48dd595b08c6832714751dde43addc2f31eb8d1a63a30a7b59ed8b749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15?
Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | 67,975,186 | 67,975,186 |
4f974c177ecb3c4671d7689ec523ff670e1bbf44 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0xc4f170156d98da99fe844c1254c8b80ce3b65a0c998eb851adf36c54ab375fa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19?
Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": .... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | 68,139,209 | 68,139,209 |
04cf6692016fe090a2c8bcb1ddf83ca0240bcb48 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x7ce04ac77c6cbbfc1cdf8ed117ceb65eaa8e94129a16cbbb8ce17354d1854e28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 68,139,215 | 68,139,215 |
ef254cf4eed1f9c946f880abedf30b6e962f4979 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x9e81521e04856a022cf13e35c09b62da4c6d3c8213fb052f88535c5afaa930a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wol-2025-02-22 | Will Bournemouth vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 68,393,333 | 68,393,333 |
46bb453c5896f89b51a699585cddabea6e7172ff | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0xfcfce8c9c0b7fa5587e5298a2ae21a0da3aeb50686afe9a805b82db34be357ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wol-2025-02-22 | Will Wolves win on 2025-02-22? | 68,393,333 | 68,393,333 |
dbb236a138b49f9c21fd6cc99e31387fd44b3876 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x18b7fa1336d8e303b26fc049abd8e86832d4819cdeb52998ea93c5b074ee51a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | no | 1 | epl-ips-not-2025-03-15 | Will Ipswich win on 2025-03-15? | 69,103,429 | 69,103,429 |
bcb09aca348eff163d222cfd4f67079fc29e96f4 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x413488c8244dc2cfa33d4ce8cee9099a5a9317d2809082513483e4a054804519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | no | 1 | epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Will Everton win on 2025-04-05? | 69,949,453 | 69,949,453 |
f4487fdd55bc0133f7b22f4c1900c0294fa500ad | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0xb361a31aa60a6d9c714da6c35c064b4b5df0412d40335a57714e81901c2976b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | no | 1 | epl-tot-sou-2025-04-06 | Will Southampton win on 2025-04-06? | 70,000,861 | 70,000,861 |
a49bd017dcad864e6456f1e8f96967e30809a8c6 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x6bab93f573782144ddc42ada6923df935df79f43baf54327c5eca01b1f3f35be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | no | 1 | ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-16? | 70,402,334 | 70,402,334 |
f325017ab470626d8e41bdfc554fe4d177b375f6 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0xc4d0cada597290b2759f0ef527562b9d61f009fbcc3b56fd21ff828d0d43423d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-ars-2025-05-07 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07? | 71,246,768 | 71,246,768 |
b390e10a55ae1cedfb0770dd0cddb1c9e10364aa | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x14197a2979391a7bb1e6918582334640f309c22c7718f824c9fa1e149302662f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | 71,387,359 | 71,387,359 |
e1eebf24ed221330ad65667f219eef2397a6c07d | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x3e171ec5a23c940d116ab18d844b57aaa98a6f48a95b9ae6af7869a658b3566f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | no | 1 | la-liga-barcelona-vs-real-madrid | Will Barcelona vs. Real Madrid end in draw? | 71,409,325 | 71,409,325 |
29b0e1e379415caf15c9e2d5ecfc0f1713381e57 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x96f998aa7e3d4291cd5209711b9edff23aef7f322969c1868621cded6f784ec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | 72,355,307 | 72,355,307 |
7f67635f1d9a1d47170694ddd2870832a51f9c99 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0xc11c84dbe1519a4165201cb2f7dd90274a5c3208f2d60c2379691e81fefc456f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 3? | 72,355,307 | 72,355,307 |
8b2b012d2d16556b6564f2837520b5a3cce37796 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0xc86aa16b74f67a14219b1c90f7e39bff1977be35f5c7a69f9e71ea34208f51d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-boca-juniors | Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | 73,041,266 | 73,041,266 |
3e56e5af7700883331a95e14a188f903c37f7615 | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0x235c1a35c662fc30c68554ca907bcaaf9e882e9645948ea525d9180cd3519822 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,196,755 | 73,196,755 |
3ca23ebf70e649ecee14d6939557f05f366b25cc | 0x283110a62b1e3e22d5c5f410aeca79fae9655602 | 0xcdd97bf429ad7931e43f3de7a292e9e6160a1898e19954577e3d45fedb467bdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19? | Event: ucl-rma-mac-2025-02-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: uc... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich? | 73,196,755 | 73,196,755 |
356256a5b0fb1a8d996cbf69f1d9ea8df261e43c | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x14197a2979391a7bb1e6918582334640f309c22c7718f824c9fa1e149302662f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | 71,280,242 | 71,280,242 |
ce4f8d0621b3250552cf7196c21a1bf02035cb6a | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x735211dd26d984cdcebc66ebff857e2a68891ec6f410bcd18f57f190261eaa2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days?
Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict ... | yes | 1 | days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | 71,280,242 | 71,280,242 |
35fafaa5690dbd88760eaabc64e61daf4241142d | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x1fa72926309670e8ef8d8b7ebe8fe06bf50ba4bc9b43187218ce3ec3ca89f200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the next Pope be from North... | no | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from North America? | 71,281,005 | 71,281,005 |
2f8709e33a848228167b2decc7bf404c0a02151c | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x2d8fd37760d0c045db3f8f15e466d753a705ff764882754e8d56181875866228 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Will the next Pope be named Francis? | 71,281,005 | 71,281,005 |
c5e41edf620c20f97ec4722b89792d244733b881 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,281,005 | 71,281,005 |
eefd91b274237446975513c943ebb04f3e8b4e62 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xc9419f62294dc0af13db4530a49c3608ee2e4d603e753de30aa5f192b81fb747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Europe? | 71,281,005 | 71,281,005 |
cee2b519332e8d2c5061240f0568d41bc838fe4c | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xdb553ea306f2eb004b78817508c961e0aa7d3538de894187bd42737421cf220c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from South America? | 71,281,005 | 71,281,005 |
f8708aff180177c95765ff22097354f9c6df38d1 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xaa2d602776ce6fc7b59bce6806b859e2322df9ea05f01154f270cbf53fab4700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | what-country-will-next-pope-be-from-2 | Will the next Pope after Francis be from Italy? | 71,281,104 | 71,281,104 |
fecab855a6ee24a563e8a59d9a922bde4929c22a | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xa82836e520d785403a3ea029b221e3f0af255cc8bed794cc038b7c1bb78fc989 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots? | 71,294,194 | 71,294,194 |
bc73b8b17c4d8cba7f852bb9e662bd25c45ea25d | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,698,904 | 71,698,904 |
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