sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a3122bf07b9ba133f5d0e8c49598cf912949ecda | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x64e1d8e619fe3be141e7b3c0dfa341268a525ece139c0f41470be23d6434cbec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | 71,710,741 | 71,710,741 |
a6c381a5d5c4b945f47f8f6c8305b24398eee026 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xff09e179f1732c49d15c6465cf68ad82904e5025a27712a2b3f30e7413705b1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | 71,710,741 | 71,710,741 |
7e3d29168d48d45b177e0a08c6fa78b283d5e3cc | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x3aeaddfa5c56f561a169d75df4670345bd9f4547c8ebcae6a32adc95831788e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | 71,779,866 | 71,779,866 |
f30f6296ee220d463338d522aabf04fb88b82547 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xf9fa144b00322251e55f4f93d52baeac98da7574bf4335581f93482959f068df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | serie-a-winner | Will Napoli win the Serie A? | 71,900,718 | 71,900,718 |
2261ccc9e68a7bc4bdaaaadbd481fbbae4bb506f | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x30f6be2f27e0a4b96c3e9c9bda2dde5079fdb4a8cee201be2b1239e9ba970ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend? | 72,045,518 | 72,045,518 |
e4048f1fbecd6bf8f6fe6741ffa69dd656d186ee | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xf48b160cb11c563dde21d9279c165165f4522fdbc87be73ad7255ed510c3ab95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend? | 72,045,518 | 72,045,518 |
89c719f211cfc97c29ff8a2bd2a20765c6091602 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x3d64ce9caf3dcf36a8958344f68af82aedfd8b63d1c9e7ea3db17bc3e830c400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? | 72,057,839 | 72,057,839 |
57cf0a3824f6debce1671bb712443fb0e1c30862 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x4b5681b48d402a6249b62ff3238f0f0d98f4eecea0cafe210d5253e696c77bea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | 72,057,839 | 72,057,839 |
93ecc9be92a0280051df0427b7381876509e158f | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x4728a4bbf16c22a1278e37e6244e2bf1d5899c97274442f803030b3018c32795 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | will-qatar-gift-trump-a-new-air-force-one-in-may | Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May? | 72,228,324 | 72,228,324 |
b082f3201d2edd69da29a616f5244295d56eae96 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x753ff59a0f7fddf21a33af6a4d4f50cce2cafe5e7baab387a6ea996ec1802ca6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Will Simon Yates win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | 72,252,678 | 72,252,678 |
47be924089f63f778783435ee810a91ce38877a0 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xfbeb58c795598403a057c8883d4074f3c3a851f203e91401b52d271bb2cd594b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Will Richard Carapaz win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | 72,252,678 | 72,252,678 |
4e6a707695a2b3aaf647de565a8cfd3d53fef3d8 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | 72,268,226 | 72,268,226 |
3a88c3d648885b9607b9f40e925d42e048f2ec27 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x74b32397d1f81bf752b8473fa2280067feded27ec773ca10bf836d8dd2760323 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | lilo-stitch-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80? | 72,281,214 | 72,281,214 |
7ab6b69f86534fc8766db3882538e942c4a9b666 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xc7296b8d619bd27c229250207dfd025b47264a2754067fb0ee318e12016e7ee5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election | Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? | 72,341,166 | 72,341,166 |
73fbdacdc0bd97b25a7a2eff5a7a7a6fd51d8e1f | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xd18593ba8a76c7af50396248b880f5ccbf3e217f0f18af7b79c73740f3640cfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election-2-brackets | Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election? | 72,341,166 | 72,341,166 |
e4e77bed81a42325279a8e66bf197355bf5f5a82 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x2b935e7d326665f4d00d141bebbe4709ec08604c0b844cf4b9b990659f3d4288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 0.227197 | will-apple-release-a-new-product-line-in-2025 | Will Apple release a new product line in 2025? | 72,358,697 | 72,358,697 |
418da0569c1616e982652f7963efc74dd39d26b1 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x05921276a72f8efc53cf8c73c71ac2b7ed873ad5278964dc21260b42216e6cae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6? | 72,422,517 | 72,422,517 |
f9a3a0f32b8710a97ce1147aeb79b5c465037552 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x365f264f575021901e4affa2ced0295c9dc78a235c0d5b35209e81b914a1504f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | italian-referendum | Italian solidary responsibility of the client, contractor, and subcontractor for injuries referendum | 72,582,433 | 72,582,433 |
02771f4b8fc91bfc2e3de6c2da0f6de120e2ec52 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x3adecdaa63b0c9d6cd65655a52f667fb72ed407e218abc7f66fcd52039cb6fb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | italian-referendum | Italian Citizenship Residency Requirement Referendum | 72,582,433 | 72,582,433 |
a73653ddbaba9dc61af34ac7ba489b86412a0e34 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xda5c919b74e2c6f5629ff47738bc4bc1ae45096719faafb5b2720ba293df00d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | yes | 1 | may-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in May 2025? | 72,606,669 | 72,606,669 |
b9bfe3d5a220da03761f1b8255979ce275cc4d5b | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xd7469c1bd99c2b55f4b7bf663f8e2ced51ebce8b6a9da36074a1a6ed8160338c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | E... | no | 1 | how-to-train-your-dragon-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94? | 72,847,769 | 72,847,769 |
0b45aea7e2c3a290eded258f5462e53dc53c4a13 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xa7d4562d9bce65476efeb1fc413147b8a999811fd306d966ded7529c1ef0ff70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next pop be elected in 2 days? | Event: days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? |... | yes | 1 | how-to-train-your-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m? | 72,855,490 | 72,855,490 |
bde36980203d4ec113fdca3de7c431a3a64e04f7 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x21d19e35d6cf2256848f9af3ccd291d2fef3bf443b2ef25ac9eca526aa3cb8e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next... | yes | 1 | elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85–89? | 73,009,093 | 73,009,093 |
7c0fb6165a74a4a75569bf0895cb2c8ca02ab6c3 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x2eec0fdbb979f11579fa048035d2b8e55e236d80d515e50106ab33546ccb6352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: wha... | yes | 1 | elio-rotten-tomatoes-score-348 | Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-74? | 73,009,279 | 73,009,279 |
41262a307cf7fbf012b454c0817e36ec8ce96944 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x6ffb87b9520b2182bbe81f3e28a6bdf4723e06f2706920aaa718d59de385f966 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from South America? | Event:... | no | 1 | elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–84? | 73,009,279 | 73,009,279 |
aed3a8e09d515b5580e859bbe1bd1c2b415a5d40 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xa5ffc9964e200d756eea015d1d9940bf1e3e1e37126184522764643357b094e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be from South America? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope after Francis ... | yes | 1 | elio-rotten-tomatoes-score-348 | Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75-79? | 73,009,279 | 73,009,279 |
ff4594c34c15584396c7e0f76a34a07eea471a90 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x599bf70ef14cb90b4b3663b9d4617da998aa6fc542056957ba1a7862eeea341e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be from South America? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope after Francis be from Italy? | Event: what-country-will-next-pope-be-from-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope r... | yes | 0.357128 | how-much-will-iphone-17-cost | Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? | 73,105,315 | 76,398,230 |
72304cc4010ca746b2a7d0285846c800a8541575 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xbbeea892dd7c00356a01ad562146236f8e4a48ab4852d119676a41832a9edb9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope after Francis be from Italy? | Event: what-country-will-next-pope-be-from-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots? | Event: of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romani... | no | 1 | will-romanias-court-annul-the-presidential-election | Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? | 73,129,928 | 73,129,928 |
6ec5f9b407d8aa14100a214d0bdf37e50c2e32bd | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x87bc8e4ff0e0f978cc75c018774b7bd943eb152147be767140e7d5e1068ac1c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots? | Event: of-rounds-to-elect-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Democratic Al... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | 73,204,176 | 73,204,176 |
be164bdef86f2a21e229dc4d1a63f4c0c23919ed | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x47e60b14ad028325d26f4ccbea6d075144d37b7321588ff187b4092a265f7cb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-ele... | yes | 1 | f1-rotten-tomatoes-score-359 | Will "F1" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | 73,292,758 | 73,292,758 |
c2f391153a92ef3c829f5f3799ba9147343de467 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x6c45d6152cd044e7fc3e429c0801f19bfb70d2b35b25442c7dd3e818b103e2d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | E... | no | 0.002294 | jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40–49? | 73,542,816 | 73,576,840 |
2825b62f2bc8d82dee9df460921bb110ac64c1b7 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x8214929dfc630d5a900d0fb3f0b1213bcdc94f60abd1968da357859de50a0686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice... | yes | 0.022463 | jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | 73,561,355 | 73,576,840 |
4f2e7dd01b6de7549c7a1973f6bb53ddff67e2ff | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xcf7bad897bff614cdd9e83d11420a3fd2957c8a254dda187b93554362aa833b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli win the Serie A? | Event: serie-a-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross betwee... | no | 0.475673 | superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | 73,744,061 | 73,843,414 |
02dce777c4f069c9a7b7e349802e05875381a915 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x655e5ca101c466b6293aa15e06173b78b293221803d56e35551f708cd82eb352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli win the Serie A? | Event: serie-a-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | 73,757,789 | 73,757,789 |
2b7e14adccc54b0f00425a398f3bf566b73fbb7e | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x4f580965f8ec711227aca2b173dbcff3308a6148e0c1115fceaddeb22998db0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weeken... | no | 1 | superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75–79? | 73,843,414 | 73,843,414 |
cab69a21d49fb9a02e086952aa04f4dc1ee9e0e1 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xb05cdbd1f44a50e53f9c872e45597389c434fa3846a59b20163c2b81df402ba3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m opening weekend? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? | Event: lilo-stitch-ope... | no | 1 | superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | 73,843,414 | 73,843,414 |
d850cfb0539137a1f4d0b168d620712e955302ee | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x49b2d631dd35aa8dca1b781709c6855e68cd276cc8c2885affc1d2cc2f8dffaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? | Event: lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.538373 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $108-116m? | 73,903,826 | 73,903,826 |
43d3218bf14a98e98a558963c4b48ec66df9992b | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x54023e8b49c03fec0ea502acc1fd255edc292c2bf987c6259d95f0021c5d97e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May? | Event: will-qatar-gift-trump-a-new-air-force-one-in-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 0.537574 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | 73,916,897 | 73,923,087 |
138da59285b9d90de726ba55b372b1d82bf446dd | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x8c104fa7d363fcee6f3eb016ba1842905f0bdbeded6d790390bf4307bf4fb142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May? | Event: will-qatar-gift-trump-a-new-air-force-one-in-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Simon Yates win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | Event: giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Richard Car... | no | 0.098806 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | 73,923,091 | 73,954,822 |
b9a94e609861d963163efbda78f5125a74018279 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x47cbe3b3e4765a9085cb01454461a8507a4c77918536278574615cce706e0a5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Simon Yates win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | Event: giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Richard Carapaz win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | Event: giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President... | no | 0.024888 | smurfs-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30–39? | 74,069,013 | 74,116,998 |
aeef44d8f3200fed218ad0b8aafe84dbcf6750ae | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xc577cd78aca24b0179ddb4c14df407de103cace12c3ec822fe3be5ed20565ead | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Richard Carapaz win the Giro d’Italia 2025? | Event: giro-ditalia-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten T... | yes | 1 | smurfs-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? | 74,117,020 | 74,117,020 |
228dd94c0bf4b9620fb1c0255591039b3bb01bbd | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xda0502b7ebe3c618614c7c82e24b4ba356cc6fd1157bcfaaf74f3e1022939e0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80? | Event: lilo-stitch-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee ... | yes | 0.176672 | eddington-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m? | 74,154,575 | 74,154,575 |
42c496481c1ac49a5aa5752b5468dc3e3a89e189 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x1b2aaa67a9c0a9520bfe5d646dbb0427753eba49517122f1331f2c14f9949d15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80? | Event: lilo-stitch-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Event: lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 0.011949 | i-know-what-you-did-last-summer-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12-14m? | 74,168,236 | 74,248,081 |
77a651919d72b2734c440336af9a1ab54506c211 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x9501b9a9f9e8f40f92706fa19298349863e6a6167ab8a4553fa3d665e7f47c90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Event: lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Event: lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-sout... | no | 0 | smurfs-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m? | 74,240,871 | 74,240,871 |
96ebc1315e8b7785a78e863c82b21e6a24b85e9b | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x220c7b49c2c32f7c4583b16be10c790f80a2020f6250385bfd4cbe381313cc4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Event: lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election-2-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple release a new product line in 2025? | Event: will-apple-release-a-new-product-line-in-2... | no | 0.347612 | happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? | 74,482,737 | 74,522,078 |
644d3f80ca48b046ab19ce887b925e5b9fe65e60 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x190951ed5cfff75971aeb0c0c772896b5a860a4c5d6a6ecfac9b13dc75d1f515 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple release a new product line in 2025? | Event: will-apple-release-a-new-product-line-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.22719669128136882
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40–49? | 74,522,078 | 74,522,078 |
5655957b4c14ed71503cf55e4463231316eb42fd | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x5a501b76fd121ac3b2f7487c0742b63a666021b6a432435112b33e909a2c98bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Italian solidary responsibility of the client, contractor, and subcontractor for injuries referendum | Event: italian-referendum | Choice: n... | yes | 1 | the-fantastic-four-first-steps-rotten-tomatoes-score | "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%? | 74,522,078 | 74,522,078 |
e5db674b75c00e64b440d293dc336c505700dc1a | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xb9a1790214e689357ff840cd9d68cb4932d105e7aab93c0bf5997a6e366d582d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Italian solidary responsibility of the client, contractor, and subcontractor for injuries referendum | Event: italian-referendum | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Italian Citizenship Residency Requirement Referendum | Event: italian-referendum | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | the-fantastic-four-first-steps-rotten-tomatoes-score | "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score 90+%? | 74,522,078 | 74,522,078 |
c7d752b852b9f3a0729f4812d70e84f27cde5811 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xcd762ba39027652ed53add831afb81628c40f4ad208d982f7691bfc4634821b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Italian Citizenship Residency Requirement Referendum | Event: italian-referendum | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in May 2025? | Event: may-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "How to ... | yes | 1 | happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | 74,522,078 | 74,522,078 |
ca3eca2d6e49f1e066fd2737671b2bffb4c24f60 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x732413f41200e5904ddd006c70d36f92e27aaa3cd0f4bccccddc7c380df53365 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in May 2025? | Event: may-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94? | Event: how-to-train-your-dragon-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: ... | no | 0.00002 | the-naked-gun-rotten-tomatoes-score | "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60–69%? | 74,639,729 | 74,639,729 |
2832c415b2b8083a102fec043f44aefa2d08f2c3 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x3571cc468bcecd178f39f5dd1aa3644f0577d9517017fd42a338ed858cc65645 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94? | Event: how-to-train-your-dragon-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m? | Event: how-to-train-your-dragon-op... | no | 1 | the-naked-gun-rotten-tomatoes-score | "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 60%? | 74,796,926 | 74,796,926 |
09076f31935a28220248f49336807230e9b9c118 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x6a39f77a60b651c884c6104db95e118ce6e7b9ae57eb127522435ace823f81cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m? | Event: how-to-train-your-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85–89? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes ... | yes | 0.447343 | the-bad-guys-2-opening-weekend-box-office-685 | Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $25m? | 74,806,268 | 75,473,837 |
66158a22cca9fbef214d8011a906913febe98e64 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xbe3655f45ebc2b81d749b88b8f5032227f064b11b50f131d07ef3740d8d77dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85–89? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-74? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score-348 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | 74,927,124 | 74,927,124 |
2d40ce9bfd6d27a748c541ce49c16d620c9fd107 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xcdce7670da1a50eca560a82c06e78ba1d1a9c528f51a0c1b6272d5e2a9bfea7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-74? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score-348 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–84? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Will "Elio" Ro... | no | 0.990779 | alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90 or higher? | 75,236,730 | 75,243,722 |
5663cebf04aa270349df6e596168df171e5dc98c | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x25c8059630d4ed23eabd18e451208f93d54164274116e2ed35993ac505433a64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–84? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75-79? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score-348 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will iPhone 17 cost... | no | 0.824961 | alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89? | 75,236,735 | 75,243,722 |
5e0380c416350acfed5e559d814b50e7a3d957fa | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x408d9f75b6e7763063b6d438d11c38c1001c0ff23a4d9d27034831a99550d537 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75-79? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score-348 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? | Event: how-much-will-iphone-17-cost | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3571283164823234
3. Question: Will Romania's co... | no | 1 | alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 70 and 79? | 75,242,972 | 75,242,972 |
692c96eb0ff52e7e12d6324c8dc350a50a2cd254 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x76df7321cb472e3fdb3f9836353ea6e49c7696264df0366f6b1c1e5e52d83188 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? | Event: how-much-will-iphone-17-cost | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3571283164823234
2. Question: Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? | Event: will-romanias-court-annul-the-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 70%? | 75,364,955 | 75,364,955 |
29bc0212fddf3e92fc767776c7995fd4381443a8 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x8c4505da0f72ba0be3fc9d62707b6a24ba6424d1bcc6390f0da5387aff3fac27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? | Event: will-romanias-court-annul-the-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%? | 75,364,955 | 75,364,955 |
e9b9a9478ee693a45b2e30de7c3abbdce7595ee5 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xe9d2cf26569ebb9d38adbc9b23364a32a7a7789c80ad16ef68093e3de5fc708e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "F1" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | Event: f1-rotten-tomatoes-score-359 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher? | 75,364,955 | 75,364,955 |
fba87242c665a63117875c69c18b305fa6a73d77 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x4c358e3d094ada489c281706b14829a23253d2550b9f2f962fcb0f25da452fdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "F1" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | Event: f1-rotten-tomatoes-score-359 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40–49? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0022937... | yes | 1 | nobody-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m? | 75,373,970 | 75,373,970 |
6e647d246387ba20295edf646df35bb002fda665 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x526cb960c84918fdc70e6c8a82b06cecb23b59310aae38ead84962f806627664 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40–49? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.002293752716278247
2. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rott... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-august-20 | Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on August 20? | 75,449,635 | 75,449,635 |
62cce07ec91f8d703e100086e3dd7f2c46f2c2de | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xde0111150c332eb6f53e9476ffbd86b5527a5a6bdcdeefbac1fbd47248fca7ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.02246339698906691
2. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no... | no | 0.000031 | apple-airtags-2-priced-below-30-usd-at-release | Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release? | 75,450,670 | 75,832,468 |
a02433fd324a5e85ce9475bc14b94a8fac86b6fb | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x97d0e723ee08972313910ec06c3fcd8cbd04d2eb64a4e0274892addbe92a8b05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.47567285282643806
2. Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Event: will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "... | yes | 0.928193 | ethereum-price-august-20-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on August 20 at 5PM ET? | 75,451,731 | 75,466,148 |
1e4d02136a4cd7c013799787939ea69803c55379 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xf5cb1aba048a5749a31425bedf7248ba710a542ac219dec3a4b037528f7837d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Event: will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75–79? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Superman" Rotte... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-august-20-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4200 and $4300 on August 20 at 5PM ET? | 75,466,148 | 75,466,148 |
e2898138e6d3fd05d9de56c26c5ee8de04cae4f7 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x161ca6a69a225e1ece9c9c1187ec240f75a3d80ceb56830961211d438b0162c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75–79? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Superman... | no | 1 | honey-dont-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m? | 75,653,873 | 75,653,873 |
706220382c093bffe19c34aadba1d22be722abaa | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xe81ffd09f4ad12993d7890734dcefb68438f437b1eec25db2ec13222a7a56960 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $108-116m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.53837312224138... | yes | 1 | honey-dont-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3-3.5m? | 75,653,873 | 75,653,873 |
ed30ecaa66a99dbf01fd2fd6997697dad58822c7 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xa0f3e90704302736d4a2d462a0a913b391e27f4e9837d3d17c0e823b11616bb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $108-116m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5383731222413836
2. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-august-26-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4500 and $4600 on August 26 at 4PM ET? | 75,696,133 | 75,696,133 |
53979ef9ca4982035d78d2130d57abe15f52455e | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x7cb3002b29c61fe1978a68e7c0f3ba42610c02c050d23a9933ba37a2c6ff72f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.537574137190411
2. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-27-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on August 27 at 4PM ET? | 75,737,197 | 75,737,197 |
a9f8adeda23d02e8236fa739b3e3c51ed35a7b49 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x46dc560a09f07d8b6989bec851262e4df92ea0dd909631cf987afc88c8b8d729 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09880571964829002
2. Question: Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30–39? | Event: smurfs-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0248... | no | 0.721442 | will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | 75,898,096 | 75,898,096 |
f51ac255d5f0ee2661c81eccb77699725a33eb2d | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x0403f396d6e190d2bcc7f54bcef6d7a77ae44768b69caf4aa2d7095ffb02237c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30–39? | Event: smurfs-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02488846032322976
2. Question: Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? | Event: smurfs-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight | Will MrBeast raise less than $40m by midnight? | 75,913,125 | 75,913,125 |
4173628f1adbd091bc9904c97abb91af2661462f | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x0f66b197978673fdb0773546bc59f50b9c34d7d9ea8ea049351e9b5c18105c91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? | Event: smurfs-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m? | Event: eddington-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17667220827013985
3... | no | 1 | caught-stealing-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Caught Stealing" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 75 and 79? | 75,929,938 | 75,929,938 |
7dab3512458c0b667ddfd64b91d0a518be43a087 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xff2eca09713b443366517739b1f474fb5e22904d904dc3576edb219cbaf130fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m? | Event: eddington-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17667220827013985
2. Question: Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12-14m? | Event: i-know-what-you-did-last-summ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-1-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on September 1 at 4PM ET? | 75,939,396 | 75,939,396 |
5b8f44fa326957a2e775b3c5edfd835ebbe2f32a | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xb404eccae16011f6bd06c743ce909019f5b48880f28a25e74c61aa28ebb56a12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12-14m? | Event: i-know-what-you-did-last-summer-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.011949306631137439
2. Question: Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m? | Event: smurfs-o... | no | 1 | caught-stealing-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Caught Stealing" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 84? | 75,963,011 | 75,963,011 |
dbcae8fbbfa2c111f2cba5022a8b7120bac0129a | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xe45bc1e315e0aeb7aa5ccb4518091e63a9cd96394b0023d28b810bf773d89528 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m? | Event: smurfs-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? | Event: happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3476117288039... | yes | 1 | caught-stealing-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Caught Stealing" Rotten Tomatoes score is 85 or higher? | 75,963,011 | 75,963,011 |
a73dac442483cc1f391bb56750a55eaa61824b10 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xff3fe37ac0a43371ede0ca2576e860023bb87a3ec03b7e77929b76e3a13a290d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? | Event: happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3476117288039205
2. Question: "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40–49? | Event: happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-3-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $114K on September 3 at 4PM ET? | 76,071,710 | 76,071,710 |
dd284fc388589ece538a3df837cc8362613479bc | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xcfdede37f03ae8794f545033140a2053971aa74058872fe4e044d46c0f280b35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40–49? | Event: happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%? | Event: the-fantastic-four-first-steps-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choic... | yes | 1 | the-roses-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "The Roses" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m? | 76,207,593 | 76,207,593 |
c9f459622a64c9862c9570e4dc807e5141d2a1d1 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x53cc30fd7ea3ee7422921ff0c33f492f80cbe9e5d5ac268abd3ed4e657fc02c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%? | Event: the-fantastic-four-first-steps-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score 90+%? | Event: the-fantastic-four-first-steps-rotten-to... | no | 0.99992 | the-conjuring-last-rites-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $62m and $67m? | 76,235,487 | 76,235,487 |
1012362baf05dc07185a9588bd1ea1043722d332 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x9e4a02b66573dd8e8e5e63b98153600b1ad341ca629cc5eed31f5764da739af2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score 90+%? | Event: the-fantastic-four-first-steps-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | Event: happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 0.9998 | the-conjuring-last-rites-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $57m and $62m? | 76,235,487 | 76,235,487 |
2db9c05017be854df97936abb354b4970eb86a96 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xe1253e009d70fc424a0cd560532d32a4f5aa436ed72bdc576c5e290a2acd5802 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | Event: happy-gilmore-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60–69%? | Event: the-naked-gun-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.965096518333... | no | 1 | the-conjuring-last-rites-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $52m? | 76,235,487 | 76,235,487 |
92b3d651b469641ae08c40c78b934c70524c9840 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x0e49ff4c72a7a708a63c470df73e08841a3e033bd66cd1ccbd056bb6eddb13ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60–69%? | Event: the-naked-gun-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.965096518333014e-05
2. Question: "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 60%? | Event: the-naked-gun-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-norway-election | Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election? | 76,265,203 | 76,265,203 |
723698f8e5a8610e406941c3415af4a19b765582 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x7cd79521e16e9f6f1e82311edb96e0a2f4b2dbc92fd7264a7add59f54b054109 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 60%? | Event: the-naked-gun-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $25m? | Event: the-bad-guys-2-opening-weekend-box-office-685 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | no | 1 | will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robtotaxi-service-in-2025 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | 76,310,424 | 76,310,424 |
132ce1852336b6419e8ae07a64eec589a01ea96e | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xa7cf245685e28265f5ab883e934cfe3f439f76cc89a48608e2e0415a4f14a0a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $25m? | Event: the-bad-guys-2-opening-weekend-box-office-685 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.447343062473152
2. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | metal-gear-solid-delta-snake-eater-ps5-metacritic-score | "Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater" Metascore 60–69 | 76,369,244 | 76,369,244 |
f47cfe5421cf786eb27ba11c2293a6c18b60d79b | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xeaeeb684ed493687c5230de819e5cd0b4bb295e3ffbe8d14254986cf3b16bd25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90 or higher? | Event: alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9907791609036423
3. Question: "Alien: Eart... | no | 1 | metal-gear-solid-delta-snake-eater-ps5-metacritic-score | "Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater" Metascore <60 | 76,369,568 | 76,369,568 |
a516dbfa1e8b6af8c642165ebafaee1b0ac17aba | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xaef155d59ef2702ccbaac1328f5443220e8de8031231968768602bac85ea9428 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90 or higher? | Event: alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9907791609036423
2. Question: "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89? | Event: alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.824960... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-12 | Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on September 12? | 76,370,416 | 76,370,416 |
bfe7f45a387d6124eef81b1cd7395a34cc5c8215 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x80823a48c97d704ebb6d6691ee36da6fd46ac6ea96160b0f5ee78e9786f5ff3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89? | Event: alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8249606809140531
2. Question: "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 70 and 79? | Event: alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-12-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $116,500 on September 12 at 4PM ET? | 76,389,827 | 76,389,827 |
b4062d6ee8003ddbd41435a3a25eafe88c63280b | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x59a455ee5e830de14216efc6686d4ca9bd8af153f3985f0ef1cbba22923117cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 70 and 79? | Event: alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 70%? | Event: nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: "Nobody 2" R... | yes | 0.789293 | will-iphone-17-cost-more-than-iphone-16 | Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? | 76,399,027 | 76,399,027 |
bc96061b953087bd6d82a6756ee0b520aa45b98f | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xa9e2653307bc522616bc0679cac79195975382aa02ce1ff181afd517881a6def | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 70%? | Event: nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%? | Event: nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: "Nobody 2" Rotten Toma... | no | 1 | will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robotaxi-service-by-june-30-2026 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026? | 76,403,405 | 76,403,405 |
8be2d8a1361b2887e975591291215a9862ea7e9b | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x3c2087c9450822f9bada7999a50f7b5d8107c27e5e0d70c5a95ee93ebf008f6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%? | Event: nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher? | Event: nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Nobody 2" Openin... | no | 1 | the-long-walk-rotten-tomatoes-score | "The Long Walk" Rotten Tomatoes score is 98 or above? | 76,487,411 | 76,487,411 |
50827c8fd0a362eebebf5687260f4e58482a40ed | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0x3ec0b68aeea45b2c6abf5fe1a7cb140d965d702c903033748b1771017398d9d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Nobody 2" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher? | Event: nobody-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m? | Event: nobody-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | yes | 1 | the-long-walk-rotten-tomatoes-score | "The Long Walk" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 90 and 91? | 76,487,411 | 76,487,411 |
533c0991b97004994bab87146a0ff622c28ed1b1 | 0x283b2fcdb2f0068498e32122141b8642217a3a9b | 0xdf0866ba5228ab8b71e6820931e1d308bffed1c4148159769a470f11749fe198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m? | Event: nobody-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on August 20? | Event: solana-price-on-august-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Apple... | no | 1 | the-long-walk-rotten-tomatoes-score | "The Long Walk" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 94 and 95? | 76,487,411 | 76,487,411 |
44bef9169af2d1182275435e0b4cd7cc57560295 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x4b9efa67614e5348b7114050ff10703c86ff7a622d664ccfe4b4fa7cef3b28d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco?
Event: world-cup-matches
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | world-cup-matches | World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | 36,035,818 | 36,142,555 |
4f4a3e0417db6f2abaf051a7dc1d0e5cb1556d38 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x1d8aee794b2f45c79f2ea212cdec4a9fe5b9cb735a13c8114bf169defa51d6e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA?
Event: world-cup-matches
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice"... | yes | 1 | world-cup-matches | World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | 39,234,924 | 39,234,924 |
dd1b1cc6528271201dc5f88babef04f5253ad073 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x0612548a0bec8fe88a7a2762eb4a58ab113515a2fa3dd65c6ea9f37c49e9f19d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be grea... | no | 1 | biden-disapproval-on-dec-29 | Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5% on December 29? | 59,496,098 | 59,496,098 |
b7a7d0012f8f5e7f58577de385260b2b59ede7b5 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x77a4da9631bac92a4d2668f2ce79de942e062f6496334a13b764becb073ff15a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 1 | will-bidens-withdrawal-speech-be-live | Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live? | 59,757,609 | 59,757,609 |
c5e574cf831217af8b4d419d924d4f41a050c031 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xf4cedf51ef9633ad72fe273c9c6dcefdebb2f76be9b2798ccf432129d9c5a92e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.742536 | biden-nominates-a-man-as-secret-service-director | Biden appoints a man as Secret Service Director? | 59,760,332 | 60,051,800 |
869f7a15be6f0363605b361db0bb8c3a1f0f857a | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xaf7159cc389550ec48ad0666dcf33cbc519b7896cb951364bce21768d0fef9b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | what-will-biden-say-during-drop-out-speech | Will Biden say "Obama" during drop out speech? | 59,760,421 | 59,775,401 |
d73629a98f576a2c39ffd886af042c65fddcf07c | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x74f97b1c6caf682f5ef9ccd325b3344959bf8fd38fe565e5398ecfebb827b4c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | will-biden-resign-by-july-31 | Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? | 59,762,495 | 59,762,495 |
e0a1112cd86e922cc904153032cf53dc37c39330 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x59b8ed567c7e887228ce8a4e262317049841346f9c9f0d39bfdcc1108b652033 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0.2928 | will-biden-announce-resignation-by-august-31 | Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? | 59,770,418 | 60,800,098 |
2fc2eea3952f277705e0e7bd357e265ae74b1ce6 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x9c930ccdce11158a4de95a3f3f5e9da8aa9176784a8082202c81e2a0a2c0253e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | biden | 0 | trump-vs-biden-staircase-olympics | Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympics | 59,805,631 | 60,072,676 |
d4404a9e1f4749c46869e73d0f1db700437e0450 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x0f5224bbf644df790da793e8006c7901293af179bb5b4218f44048718c12ae48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | will-obama-endorse-kamala-for-dem-nominee-by-tomorrow | Will Obama endorse Kamala by tomorrow? | 59,808,028 | 59,835,561 |
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