sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56c6f04d1702cdb264be2f4b6b48cefed6c51c26 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xe47fa246d7910a7a6bb1f5bb32d0eb26b0637be6d921d63f363557b8ca0c5add | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0.015774 | trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | 59,812,917 | 59,959,363 |
f7ea1aaba39d5badc082b0840b2e29d0fb92c3e9 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x9a6aae9fbe7ebfea1527b25b0b83e7fcf22ccc6216deb414c3e830266dfc36ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.330603 | fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris | Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? | 59,833,451 | 60,510,113 |
87ce8a85767b1344c71a8b1458e5387f5ebdca15 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x062b436ecbacd177ede3cf63b9d1fa1958c06496c7d71b80811848adcc582bab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.000015 | will-kamala-say-coconut-before-august | Will Kamala say "coconut" before August? | 59,834,849 | 59,834,849 |
98f7269469bf45872ae3bfd5dacbe9296eb9fcd2 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x57f90c89879a5b5e69fad9c2a261fa6f44f3653001aa3a02446aed92aaff21bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.000046 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 59,834,928 | 59,834,928 |
75f96a7865c2d2fb69d1b53a1f222fb50e8ff6eb | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x230144e34a84dfd0ebdc6de7fde37780e28154f6f84dd8880c7f0e58d302d448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.000008 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 59,839,297 | 60,106,874 |
f8fc2540241d69729c2c021f5be8f306df45c1ae | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xb50e4eb3b151f97e8656e814953c818b12347e71a3924a62e19ef9d7ff4bb339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Will Trump say "Bitcoin" 5+ times during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | 59,846,191 | 59,897,826 |
1bbcdcce9a041e6f86eab73ba155f24b3dba53a4 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x603d1a5e35f4ad2f1bf74d30432865d29f81d88709cbe5023bbd45f4a0e47865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Will Trump say "DJT" or "Donald Trump Coin" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | 59,853,998 | 59,897,826 |
ced80c936fd11ab762ebb515f45957d3a7d84861 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x61af60313ba3a16668513eb6e314e9a9a3ce658d07e7b2878c19ed91787264e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Will Trump say "Ethereum" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | 59,855,472 | 59,897,826 |
dc307a362eea86a1ea2e4e9864bd0cebfd12eca9 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x60976da8a4f9cc0a45d3cb2906bab3dbdb78d6458a7886fa3f9d48ad214f9a0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Will Trump say "Memecoin" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | 59,858,145 | 59,897,826 |
0ae9c5dc1dcdee86ee07eacb22a5451f29189bc3 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xf2805cbebfebd105a00b05c4337abe008ddfd1bd6091119f9c14571384bc2a28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Will Trump say "Solana" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | 59,876,274 | 59,881,687 |
d99b9cc42baedc0b94f0ba82bb2df938f4f35a41 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x8b8519f0ea44f939a59694db7e6db417c93925a942e98f34c3dd64ad2c4a47a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Will Trump say "Elizabeth Warren" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | 59,878,764 | 59,878,764 |
202313746537d7efc0911c526417df8b57b32f64 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xfc3c016aba83cd8a0b566bdee5a7c51ccc162a3d0c7efda3a6b712c12d2947f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0.000039 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Will Trump say "Kamala Harris" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | 59,881,642 | 59,881,642 |
bf76a3c4367b449b42fcee8c3ef889e44b0e9d0c | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0.031019 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 59,959,460 | 60,796,171 |
9b1f494a8a4b924bc54f0ea0ee4ed0a4f2efde9c | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xd1e760f57415093db2e8378b79fe37ec8dc9ad09ee57f6f0cdc2468ae29fea23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.030754 | will-biden-complete-his-term-as-president | Will Biden finish his term? | 59,998,799 | 60,762,468 |
42cb8a492a1d1b635a1617f9ee3320c1a399950c | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x1b60fead57018405d3555612030acdf7f46a35955bdc697445708be31188cd71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.644128 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 59,998,998 | 60,283,165 |
afbb83a006cda93dc4f0896ae5c8375ab87bbcfd | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x2975406109ebf92cedda5862edc43997e1e5464fe5b2c27d4ba9f1cfbd39b8ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.245295 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 59,999,381 | 60,283,165 |
617b595c35d7ff6ac91a2a76aeab1cbd4b44bed7 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xd3f61cf160d2fdcb21d3079f210610a58abfb97fc60e0e49ff1c6f9ca8efc012 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.117991 | us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-august-31 | U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by August 31? | 60,038,720 | 60,038,720 |
04d700affd72f21630fbb172772bd7ec52b256fc | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x35bc748a57d31c1cbf298b310328452a759604151db40ebfb9cb39c5d4d556cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.153846 | az-8-republican-primary-winner | Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | 60,038,773 | 60,072,676 |
44bbd9d71986fe1ff34878d38d0c1433ca57a7aa | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x26ee82bee2493a302d21283cb578f7e2fff2dd15743854f53034d12420863b55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | republican | 0.000002 | which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election | Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | 60,044,148 | 60,851,369 |
45284a84a05a041f0969a74b78f92fb0bda76c97 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | no | 0.063642 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 60,044,464 | 60,797,996 |
5b9a61597d0f898cedfa2d2c952ecdc0e40706a9 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x57dc89d2f5803961a1c72add5969c2887f9591821d05421f2819fa17b664dd59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Sunday - Will Belgium beat Morocco? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5... | yes | 0.608842 | ohio-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election? | 60,051,073 | 60,051,073 |
179d105cce690e08d0a2c4c8d816412b6485a983 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x6c801092e4fa8de9a184fee0271446399b3c61b28347085cd29394ddc49e3e49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Cup: Friday - Will England beat USA? | Event: world-cup-matches | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5% on December 29? | Event: biden-disapproval-on-dec-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Biden's withdr... | bears | 0 | nfl-houston-texans-vs-chicago-bears | NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears | 60,069,064 | 60,106,613 |
3fb2bf74b369618cd82ed62079be83b386f67b16 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x29a25b519004a328b40afa949f8db5f84d596deae8e6e8080a086f393737d0af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 disapproval rating be greater than 55.5% on December 29? | Event: biden-disapproval-on-dec-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live? | Event: will-bidens-withdrawal-speech-be-live | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bi... | yes | 1 | az-8-republican-primary-winner | Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | 60,072,676 | 60,072,676 |
4823ad59fb2507163b33afbb61bab8e956fcf109 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xabfadca00b70cc9063aa49ca40c782ac07ca2d8395eed66bb8b77f7c2f055269 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden's withdrawal speech be live? | Event: will-bidens-withdrawal-speech-be-live | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Biden appoints a man as Secret Service Director? | Event: biden-nominates-a-man-as-secret-service-director | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7425356513395603
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | az-8-republican-primary-winner | Will Anthony Kern Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | 60,072,676 | 60,072,676 |
f76be533c5de50b57fdc5f0e6b01895f37af2320 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xd2923ba77aad0c0b4b650a9524a1c765e4379bc30d5399fe45a8de81fe8a1b1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden appoints a man as Secret Service Director? | Event: biden-nominates-a-man-as-secret-service-director | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7425356513395603
2. Question: Will Biden say "Obama" during drop out speech? | Event: what-will-biden-say-during-drop-out-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | az-8-republican-primary-winner | Will Abraham Hamadeh Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | 60,072,676 | 60,072,676 |
1a349f07e8416b81d576bf8ff2584e654bbc1a93 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xf21777b696d72fb8a65dc9e3fd6f8c06c4e59be3dbc5c10d1e73ddc34675a916 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden say "Obama" during drop out speech? | Event: what-will-biden-say-during-drop-out-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? | Event: will-biden-resign-by-july-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Biden resigns from presi... | yes | 1 | az-8-republican-primary-winner | Will Trent Franks Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | 60,072,676 | 60,072,676 |
9faff2c9b04d9c90a0ba169a4e77ea11bc75fb09 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x7eb7817a0652a324a864a83234a7401256e9c06de5bec8a30184889f75f3f4b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? | Event: will-biden-resign-by-july-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? | Event: will-biden-announce-resignation-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2928004318304795
3. Question: Trump vs. ... | no | 1 | will-rfk-jr-drop-out-by-friday | Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday? | 60,228,322 | 60,233,537 |
809562c9afdd3c7bebea30986a2d4c7e07b3d855 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xd280ef888530239f255b3efc0487a9f4d28039d24f50d8080a51a75927bc1a3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? | Event: will-biden-announce-resignation-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2928004318304795
2. Question: Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympics | Event: trump-vs-biden-staircase-olympics | Choice: biden | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Obama... | no | 0 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? | 60,228,566 | 61,585,029 |
9cca143c74a1e32397667ef93876b3caee3716c1 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xdf04ec6d59c42fea03d2d3fbd37c7c2fdaa9621ca38d59aa99af316d6dfba03d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympics | Event: trump-vs-biden-staircase-olympics | Choice: biden | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Obama endorse Kamala by tomorrow? | Event: will-obama-endorse-kamala-for-dem-nominee-by-tomorrow | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Trump and Harris agre... | canada | 0 | olympic-basketball-canada-vs-france | Olympic Basketball: Canada vs. France | 60,266,345 | 60,266,345 |
75f7010ca7bdd60a3a2bfe1c6da4a5354cb52374 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xbe83f073318a021636e408a556c3bd806d09e3175008a75e10dcd2a2981a6ad3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Obama endorse Kamala by tomorrow? | Event: will-obama-endorse-kamala-for-dem-nominee-by-tomorrow | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.015773522747818822
3. ... | no | 0 | trump-family-launches-coin-by-friday | Trump Family launches coin by Friday? | 60,326,982 | 60,411,163 |
71efc3ba2db5eef43a7e8e4cec6b9a038e588158 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x953df935219461ccfd3cb6367cc03f03856e850e4a51194f4a963156c4272370 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.015773522747818822
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? | Event: fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.33060269892... | no | 0.196788 | wyoming-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? | 60,347,372 | 62,329,346 |
1dfb55198512b51355e0171309fe605912fc4f82 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x9b7bf151560114a00da99e0cd4bc20a232162be69db99e488859bade3aecbf35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? | Event: fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.33060269892703764
2. Question: Will Kamala say "coconut" before August? | Event: will-kamala-say-coconut-before-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5014457382680369e-0... | no | 0 | iran-military-response-by-friday | Iran military response by Friday? | 60,348,937 | 60,348,937 |
8c922785fb09c894bc5d05d475807edd74f4223a | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x41c0924d37aeb35920ca4d1678f54adf62091ef2cdf4ecd0b5b14ab8a94a4cb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala say "coconut" before August? | Event: will-kamala-say-coconut-before-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5014457382680369e-05
2. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.6132871659965966e-05
3. Questio... | bears | 0 | nfl-buf-chi-2024-08-10 | Bills vs. Bears | 60,349,722 | 60,422,203 |
f38f84add8ad150af23630adae3094b06d585c38 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x2758b209d0ce348873b100c1205c2e3c2449222f211e4e9857e29e3071a65fad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.6132871659965966e-05
2. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.93803222523943e-0... | no | 0.000005 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | 60,353,335 | 60,363,611 |
710d88401297e203a6f06b4a9bf1e74a8576e4b1 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x560b4afb67d3fe8b2743ce15540355c39ec19bc9535c9b320a5e6e86794fd9cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.93803222523943e-06
2. Question: Will Trump say "Bitcoin" 5+ times during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conferenc... | yes | 0.000006 | which-state-amendments-protecting-abortion-will-pass | Will Maryland's abortion protection measure pass? | 60,367,071 | 60,425,687 |
707040026b92d570d6b18dd2f79103b7150941d9 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x85ecdbccbfc9878b7316688f1f8c45bfa636e2c49aab4799c0e6ea9659e9a2a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Bitcoin" 5+ times during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "DJT" or "Donald Trump Coin" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-... | yes | 0.000015 | afc-south | Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South? | 60,393,555 | 60,393,735 |
b5728d7196b75fef4b92304a996941c0dfbd8372 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xc350c67905c6c3b294f7d0296a27af3b221f2f53ace61817281ef9bd2f7ae059 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "DJT" or "Donald Trump Coin" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Ethereum" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-h... | dolphins | 0 | nfl-mia-atl-2024-08-09 | Dolphins vs. Falcons | 60,394,641 | 60,407,951 |
2b10ce774a9eeeb46635204986f36e0126d64753 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x27a0e257214ae21c2c60c6ecf09e67002efe0304db17f7ea0e6ef5b424029322 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Ethereum" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Memecoin" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-confere... | no | 0 | which-state-amendments-protecting-abortion-will-pass | Will New York's abortion protection measure pass? | 60,396,336 | 60,425,960 |
ee0eee338dd63a8513ad486505439cb8d5579a3e | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x4affdf8b67fc7cbf24179228e8fa70f238dfdeda36940b5e2e7879fd0216845a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Memecoin" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Solana" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conferenc... | yes | 0.006947 | afc-east-champion | Will the Bills win the AFC East? | 60,422,815 | 60,422,815 |
59725ef97016fbe7568584d2e38c372f309d3e57 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x7d5ecc7d978e4c1448dab5d54c0edf0111dc85ae3d42ae1d4d0cd6cef97b9f4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Solana" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Elizabeth Warren" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-c... | yes | 0.018878 | wyoming-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Wyoming Presidential Election? | 60,438,894 | 60,440,018 |
ad755b013765aeb3758d1fe698a32dfbbd4e4f74 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xefa424b1850029ac2634a78dd451f2ca02bd4acb1ebb68146c4c5b68530cf0a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Elizabeth Warren" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala Harris" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bi... | yes | 0.029456 | wyoming-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Wyoming Presidential Election? | 60,440,553 | 60,464,204 |
163fb5477f1d37d8c0abdd3c663f0545ae0e371a | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x47bf2601573a52fef16ed5e7c55b3c94e1fe1708f85b01fc55b9e76e05f0cbd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala Harris" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.8974246205395294e-05
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-... | yes | 0.000117 | nfc-south-winner-1 | Will the Falcons win the NFC South? | 60,464,173 | 60,464,173 |
6412b31209ae9e3c6c5e74546f642b7241282655 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xfd87909158fa8139b8a11f3ae2af8f68f42d5fa7a17e892b984e43b76ae51dac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03101935303918241
2. Question: Will Biden finish his term? | Event: will-biden-complete-his-term-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.03075365724376815
3. Que... | yes | 0.999926 | tim-walz-out-as-democratic-vp-nominee | Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? | 60,465,754 | 60,465,754 |
32e0efe7829bfc2b80539e5cb31ba7a0cdecb5a4 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x1b4d6063229fb799277f26de2e6b53f8c90efb6b170e7415b7beacf0f477ff37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden finish his term? | Event: will-biden-complete-his-term-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.03075365724376815
2. Question: Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6441281138790036
3. Question: Will Pete... | no | 0 | wyoming-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Wyoming US Senate Election? | 60,473,998 | 60,474,162 |
fa74094d1f57db976fe63b5e42dd985c6a39da61 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x6d0450622f44f5e88c0309f412e0562ae14234c50e8fd685136d7f71f23d1bef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6441281138790036
2. Question: Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.245295492851854
3. Question: U.S.... | no | 1 | wyoming-us-senate-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Wyoming US Senate Election? | 60,474,756 | 60,474,756 |
862f84d5a83c713c4c90414cf955e2ebe31c3a78 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xd8084b77d5386b0c907a3e82567c737896ba0102af5de7ab7295aee6023409b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.245295492851854
2. Question: U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by August 31? | Event: us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-august-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.11799068281439525
3. Que... | no | 0 | iran-action-by-friday | Iran military response by Friday? | 60,476,881 | 60,667,550 |
2055bbe31865942d02a4da44eda6067f5732468d | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x5cd8bb97af43191779906af4e624fd87eb2a07bcdb19a22b8f0943cc20dca848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by August 31? | Event: us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-august-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.11799068281439525
2. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Cho... | yes | 0.609878 | washington-dc-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Washington DC Presidential Election? | 60,505,464 | 60,541,672 |
c112bbc4497a3c6877e6f1ddb2015236d6920f72 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xdb10542b728f31ee446c8512200f4207b85432381a2ab176254472d1158d6a34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Blake Masters Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.15384615384615385
2. Question: Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-state... | no | 0.628166 | afc-west-winner | Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West? | 60,510,404 | 60,510,404 |
cc39c43fb19baa5a092706d382319de2d2fd12c1 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x381b7b45c22f94e13fac89bf754bf3611414d5f2e739eab374072125e1a716ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election | Choice: republican | Confidence: 1.500469011911723e-06
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024... | yes | 0.218972 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? | 60,511,953 | 60,511,953 |
0d7bba4e0d21321844f277db3a3f29b0421b0ab6 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x1abb01bf1b40437116748b2f30de85404349a9b92c14d21031990698915e99f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06364181544931914
2. Question: Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election? | Event: ohio-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.608842418866942... | no | 0 | iran-military-response-by-august-12 | Iran military response by Monday? | 60,513,940 | 60,537,264 |
034be6cbd40a7eb7ed36879beafdd6b0936b67a1 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xfdbfcaa8f6ace709a0a5078eb5932d8600edcba6f91fc878eb4d3923980ed2f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election? | Event: ohio-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6088424188669421
2. Question: NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears | Event: nfl-houston-texans-vs-chicago-bears | Choice: bears | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will another can... | no | 0.579977 | maryland-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Maryland Presidential Election? | 60,539,297 | 60,786,151 |
9d222af160b6dfe38c642b386616734ec00a5082 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x5c9490cd2121384ebb7a08b0aed1fa9a5239d98096d91b4bd6827c47c94951b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears | Event: nfl-houston-texans-vs-chicago-bears | Choice: bears | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 1 | israel-military-action-against-iran-by-end-of-2024 | Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024? | 60,545,292 | 60,545,292 |
0de0a7f305dc6858df5a3367dd44efe491354175 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthony Kern Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-repub... | no | 0.000013 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 60,545,437 | 60,545,437 |
2118cb0c966e18616ad6fe7ef9ed96808f401bef | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x2705276ea71dbb3e80c355ae99b38eb9593ecc35f27c00b1de69187b254bbf76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthony Kern Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abraham Hamadeh Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republi... | no | 0.377392 | mn-5-democratic-primary-winner | Will Ilhan Omar win the MN-5 Democratic House Primary? | 60,553,087 | 60,581,098 |
f56d1f4aa9cbd28790891001a50dccf18e44362e | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x6cc501fa617e3a46ececf6e3990fe1afeeaa6bc897d3c7049c005fd1bdc42c2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Abraham Hamadeh Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trent Franks Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republic... | yes | 0.000025 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | 60,582,737 | 60,769,459 |
349ece4b155b856456341e92a7f5ec8c7cd946e7 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x8f97d034bbf01cd874af524cefc6d83deaa25373c1ab4545a81589a4d3d2b2a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trent Franks Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District? | Event: az-8-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday? | Event: will-rfk-jr-drop-out-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 0.298554 | north-carolina-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election? | 60,594,937 | 60,841,777 |
d4cef9fc38a9a83f11e51a9c8e1ed86c347e0f37 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0xf488aacaba74914fe181c68d8b6195e13c4ec8b6c1b215c299d297666297200e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday? | Event: will-rfk-jr-drop-out-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Olympic Basketball: Canada vs. France | Event: olympic-basketba... | yes | 0.000002 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 60,623,992 | 60,843,398 |
3cc6aaced31d773c5bdd1359c758c6318c319270 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Olympic Basketball: Canada vs. France | Event: olympic-basketball-canada-vs-france | Choice: canada | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Trump Family launches coin by Friday? | Event: tr... | no | 0.036764 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 60,639,541 | 60,747,674 |
2157f1a13f8d771b5809fe45a53228f0d0f6b086 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x4d848bab2da79b9ff7f2b2b0d9ddb048bb1fb47e9f782887f16e91d27de41279 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Olympic Basketball: Canada vs. France | Event: olympic-basketball-canada-vs-france | Choice: canada | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump Family launches coin by Friday? | Event: trump-family-launches-coin-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win Wyoming Pres... | no | 0.000006 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | 60,649,853 | 60,713,664 |
2b372e7da12bc026119c7f1577d6f775a26ac451 | 0x2855eeff701562e21558d36d3dd28cbd739bafff | 0x868b503a719041856447c31943a337493eb6870bcdf7498855a38deeb68127d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump Family launches coin by Friday? | Event: trump-family-launches-coin-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? | Event: wyoming-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.19678827083352562
3. Question: Iran m... | no | 0.07371 | maduro-out-before-september | Maduro out before September? | 60,662,827 | 60,662,827 |
12d52495186d7866876c3859b7578d05c826c3cd | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x582312f303f6a7b777f458de00ac1fb826a05730c2f3d789edcf7e3c496b8b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop?
Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | 53,777,818 | 53,777,818 |
93769d2e8781a81f5e1f19c3609d109206f96667 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xb6690fc66008fdff362db89fe4a9e7bc90aab1a505e299fab8be8e0c2cdeb800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?
Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay
Predict the user's choice and confidence for th... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | 53,782,328 | 54,399,441 |
1e7de0beb2cce12df48b6474e8b911adee65a3df | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xdd33dc8589db515ee64e319540e34d3684540511efa4ae5a1211075b14eb0400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Wi... | no | 1 | tyson-fury-vs-oleksandr-usyk-who-will-win | Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire? | 53,826,401 | 54,291,799 |
2386190c1da0d2be2e7f6818b79072313d4b8b2d | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x5e596465dca57c10c8b175f901974e2de2877498410b0210d0a21b57e14da000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend? | 53,838,591 | 54,052,472 |
8b566ece243d2b03117ba9b9907f0e3c803cc4df | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xe25ac48f79f45c35f1ba5d4930f073fa2eea3f8c314a22a6ec1b41fd549abc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 53,838,664 | 53,838,664 |
32d6a987f22183762175bd750050bc0eb53daf76 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xdb2a3cc5970e6b09435978f78f018a09a2abb972f2df7e9dec3181784fdfb300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | total-crypto-market-cap-on-march-1 | Will the crypto market cap be less than 1.8 trillion on March 1? | 53,997,065 | 54,009,278 |
2ce89597260225740fb179a1dee76015334245d0 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xab3a62b066d929e9cdc4a1ddd6820a3160b46f9463ff7b0109a9a62b0fce5300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | price-of-portal-one-week-after-launch | Portal price above $3.40 one week after launch? | 54,016,513 | 54,016,513 |
fc829a30a990f68bebda70009e5b1fd8df2bfafe | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xfa5d43be36255764600be8bf2a29f288e6c8963c121df8400ddfe6bcbc744700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 54,053,395 | 54,268,694 |
e4755964ebd18b7457c9f1783c30e1055769e801 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x64427199b7b42a794bfbc505f2b46185dab8fe4692ceeb4cc70041bb6cccc800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after its March 2024 meeting? | 54,130,331 | 54,324,811 |
cc1cdf37dd5cd5faa5de26557cae219ea8b97b90 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x2b78d885ce7c0441442a18e4821e43e724ff1681d15e91dc6074c3263faec646 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 50-60% of the vote? | 54,131,905 | 54,131,905 |
a52b370532afc68b665ac4ab8f43dc68354fce69 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x83e9f7031a2f0d60a13dba310a3fe95d650e24bfcf1c07bf83c44e6ac2fbdf00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Will FTX payouts start in Q1 2024? | 54,135,513 | 54,135,513 |
76877f396c88cb35c1971c3d0bcb843f0640279d | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x91882ef46b0b986dda00c5d8369b891c82714bcc84cbbb93e4a1fad24153f200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | super-tuesday-state-with-highest-trump-margin-of-victory | Will Alabama have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries? | 54,270,813 | 54,270,813 |
e088a89351ec2160103f76c86456ee28bceb8fc3 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x265bbb33ba7170621c87c7d53879250756ad9e44e9a486261e45b6e291547d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 20-30% of the vote? | 54,272,235 | 54,272,235 |
e189424f97d7bc5174aa8b9c5af54a29d87c31b1 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x4f4fcd345250caf8a129d5528b0f9f641c34dbf2d96a8650590c8485466de299 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 30-40% of the vote? | 54,272,235 | 54,272,235 |
3c79913451aa4e1373c6958effc93a1f8fc72684 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x540ff9affba0de36f585e538d4dfae6c473094ec1045b2b76e5cc3ee1cf7b543 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by more than 60% of the vote? | 54,272,235 | 54,272,235 |
50db896a3774f99ec8aad7c25f20460541690384 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x56ebec1f696891326a556f9820b00385a0fa3da543156eed7805acce3d37be6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by less than 20% of the vote? | 54,272,235 | 54,272,235 |
81ca1e20d9f28a0585ca7f977e9e9c001835e82c | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x5b34bf185b88e212328c608b1449d0a332a021bad35ac20f900f5243c070158a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | michigan-democratic-primary-uncommitted-vote-share | Will ‘Uncommitted’ receive between 5-10% of the popular vote in the 2024 Democratic Michigan Primary? | 54,272,235 | 54,272,235 |
e6febba5ce9c0962fa23e861c6468f214034ff1e | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x86c30fc7ec352fa7eae75ea10a34d0839690c2aeca95f214b13368090c2e2bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | total-crypto-market-cap-on-march-1 | Will the crypto market cap be between 2 trillion and 2.1 trillion on March 1? | 54,272,235 | 54,272,235 |
1a4de710d47bb0bca3daf92631644c8a2c9210e0 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xd4c53aff49cda3d6cbee3e507992a4c58e35da836ef1eebbb2d6ba5ab4791f70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | when-will-caitlin-clark-break-ncaa-scoring-record | Will Caitlin Clark fail to beat Maravich's record by end of reg. season? | 54,272,235 | 54,272,235 |
632c31a43e420ff12ce03f5fd2f55e3f80b68d2b | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xeb4a7e958caa73f7797aa722d13ffa8c46fe7b2f7af1c254da092fc12174953d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | trump-sc-speech-what-will-he-say-most | Will Trump mention Biden the most in South Carolina speech? | 54,272,235 | 54,272,235 |
37c3b570951f472b76fcd3d632f8400c74202ac2 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x21b6d0cb5436c5c4b7eb21a54d5c5ad41352ba67036ed26b11e9ce3fb4f3edd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | bafta-best-actor | Will Cillian Murphy win the BAFTA for Best Actor? | 54,272,239 | 54,272,239 |
7f2f0b095067fc34bff8387c47783df6f08c4222 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x21be7daceb0b5463e4affbbf2c66d100bb7d7d706c9851ea965f41ed8135f870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | 54,272,239 | 54,272,239 |
6bc36dc923dc3449e5fb00e5b33c7c6517fa4e0b | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x9bd1796175817533b3090b51b52352a49fc425ed5b081cb7989c1c330eb5fd99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | michigan-democratic-primary-uncommitted-vote-share | Will ‘Uncommitted’ receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2024 Democratic Michigan Primary? | 54,272,239 | 54,272,239 |
347dce56c9c9911e1ce9e119e061de8e62c872ac | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xc57fccb3e74bda8f89bbc5d980286c1d1eda1acf7dad23dea624d43f08dd8c18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | michigan-democratic-primary-uncommitted-vote-share | Will ‘Uncommitted’ receive between 1-5% of the popular vote in the 2024 Democratic Michigan Primary? | 54,272,239 | 54,272,239 |
939433dd2be645ecb0d8c9fe016f8032af4e366b | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xd1f31a99fd2fafe2fac4356822507fd8c3356541e1f18d428e628b8cfd5b7337 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | michigan-democratic-primary-uncommitted-vote-share | Will ‘Uncommitted’ receive over 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 Democratic Michigan Primary? | 54,272,239 | 54,272,239 |
deba9a7327d65cee645fb5cd8af1e27c544316ec | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xdb16493883416799bf9d7ec7399578e5a72a1111ca0bbce4809d4cf2b67b423b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | michigan-democratic-primary-uncommitted-vote-share | Will ‘Uncommitted’ receive between 10-15% of the popular vote in the 2024 Democratic Michigan Primary? | 54,272,239 | 54,272,239 |
a6f8879fce3708e6b73d8c7076f79327d789695f | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xe190866fe58a4cc3f38ab1670bd23bb3472a1aaa11edf47b15b36211ed70b000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Man City win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 54,276,001 | 54,276,001 |
a814cf1faabdae4d4fba236b642a9bcf4d082192 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x1a4a25d45ef3a9e7d897579e6f85bc9296c2c94d99b50ca3640a325197f7785d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend? | 54,287,408 | 54,287,408 |
00c44a0522a27aeadd3229d9455ac2cdcc3e8b2a | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x2ccdc78547b47a146b116c5f3b626cc5ef4c9e8d571ec83a54bff3f3ef1f476b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend? | 54,287,413 | 54,287,413 |
1d36dd468cf96638dbf30f4d9e802209875c4aaf | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x3dc1ae67a338dd88cd605e3eb12ba5da7258ac9945d373f8d101485af2016800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | first-place-in-california-senate-primary | Will Adam Schiff get first place in the California Senate Primary? | 54,287,431 | 54,298,362 |
29cd1d81288e01f113bc5d004603dfe87847c082 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xb6859af7f16e90ae487c5a7e89110fafa8d37c80c54206641fed9845d8ca6800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will STRK be below $1 one day after airdrop? | Event: strk-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-supporting-actor | Will Robert Downey Jr. win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor? | 54,287,478 | 54,287,478 |
79e75269e238c512572f4d0cc5d1f699e2213aa0 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x3fbd47e4726350f1384f9fdfcb85607d37df19c8e80fe7eb19c55bf4753e6900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire? | Event: tyson-fury-vs-oleksandr-usyk-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | 2024-nfl-draft-1st-pick | Will Caleb Williams be taken with the 1st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft? | 54,288,331 | 54,288,331 |
89bda8c7d1ed8f5043cb3b084bf4f1e379ff4cab | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x11f077e084ce51c53d056e5dbfee5a529be8ddb791f48c39c2320566ebdb4300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire? | Event: tyson-fury-vs-oleksandr-usyk-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | when-will-satoshis-identity-be-proven | Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q1 2024? | 54,288,571 | 54,288,571 |
58b16e2634c580267e4c378e2e4f5145cb9f65cc | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xa9242f634d391a94159000ef04dd5cfeabbbf63ed4c95e5c3ce2c9c5602cb700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | 54,288,605 | 54,288,605 |
6b5096f1ab863fb4dd7dfcf790e24b3310cf8717 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x6cfe668c3161170cd276b6b91826f7fc8f46f05d3d378d3d80af2e4f21a15000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the crypto market cap be less than 1.8 trillion on March 1? | Event: total-crypto-market-cap-on-march-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Porta... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-original-screenplay | Will The Holdovers win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay? | 54,289,249 | 54,294,132 |
20085548a5b43f5a112bb0c97a66c7ac7258185e | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x75c9c8fc008e5d6300940025fdafe4d7a8bb64233cc1a31e92ca2e22244e6400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the crypto market cap be less than 1.8 trillion on March 1? | Event: total-crypto-market-cap-on-march-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Portal price above $3.40 one week after launch? | Event: price-of-portal-one-week-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win? | 54,289,872 | 54,411,233 |
dc24861aae7cad3a694beb2efe04004e02818bbd | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xa964f2865c241ddf0f15ada5656b2b6858daf2fdc0a54c530e269c56e375d200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Portal price above $3.40 one week after launch? | Event: price-of-portal-one-week-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 54,289,920 | 54,320,442 |
2577f66f1dd67489aeda691cfcec81d915ac64c4 | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x28b0e31214dfe59ed11951c6cde297a86c102998eb3e0720fc9cc91e14c86400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after its March 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | ... | no | 1 | oscars-best-animated-feature-film | Will The Boy and the Heron win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film? | 54,290,028 | 54,320,477 |
1c981d5147c38baa85228f3d57ce864b8ae71bdf | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0xf3a520cd390a264aedb854b510ae02d3910c254d8e191e1d6bec14818c572c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after its March 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 50-60% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Choice: no... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-supporting-actress | Will Da'Vine Joy Randolph win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress? | 54,290,031 | 54,299,936 |
760ba7758c71eb79726fcf3162e6407c23a5b79f | 0x285e44ebc774abfbe205ccbf1636979309379ae3 | 0x19dc12fdaa7ac25f5fb17494b690e6e45a82a25c517a2b24a5329ec048129300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 50-60% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q1 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alabama ... | no | 1 | gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Will the median gas price per blob be <0.0001 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | 54,290,119 | 54,321,057 |
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