sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b0554aa2f02e27c22907deb98a080d37568768b7 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x5c54d962db0d663f89f000f3f3f35b84815ad0946ff0d014146884d25911ea76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Denmark win? | Event: euro-2024-denmark-vs-serbia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovenia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-2024-chile-vs-argentina | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-georgia | Will Spain Win? | 58,820,007 | 58,820,007 |
b56f2b4cecbf35c4e22b4df14198ff7ae7cd0ba8 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x8291ff7c970197941d6702babe7c0146fa8fa1a0e8021d61076e647920da567c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win? | Event: euro-2024-england-vs-slovenia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-2024-chile-vs-argentina | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Will England Win? | 58,820,007 | 58,820,007 |
86f74ffe7c9e17ba25bf17a0fad228f958eb9cdf | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0xbe2654aee49bfff7a298a1f8354d759947d95789ee2c86bb60747f0732df0cd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-2024-chile-vs-argentina | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.32963994812808634
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-england-vs-slovakia | Will the match be a draw? | 58,820,007 | 58,820,007 |
dd7e9a38c030357853e61379cb9262952e81caa8 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0xef51c385c8dab27cf2c9cf1ee019ca1d35b7994d55da92aa39dc37fd5b3c6251 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.32963994812808634
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Romania win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | C... | yes | 1 | copa-america-2024-jamaica-vs-venezuela | Will this match be a draw? | 58,820,007 | 58,820,007 |
3aa27e21b8efaff168fa3c3e3dd7d9288d640419 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0xa262f6c8f7d545a97d86faa313c4b5bc26b38d562c8396b506b52694cc5819f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Romania win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | next-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in | Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in June? | 58,832,164 | 58,832,164 |
6990d3082ef933a494f16f36a96e2bbb0f736119 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x22a5eaeb673540f8b022e2c3cbc8c741de265364f9eeb216ecda4548f62dbffd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Romania win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Belgium win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | a-quiet-place-day-one-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'A Quiet Place: Day One' gross between $48m and $54m opening weekend? | 58,865,837 | 58,865,837 |
27ec4677b8ac9cae88ab98f4f379aa46df324994 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x25c6763e4521680ab39d61786577fb4b1af89e9d215be35c79ad1a060a21e11d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovakia win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Will the match be a draw? | 58,865,837 | 58,865,837 |
ba39699993532c9ac15011787c3b57450c42380b | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x3957407da9d55bde293a6fa8e62717dc050cd87f9c94863b578c00702a165893 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zaccharie Risacher be the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft? | Event: nba-draft-1st... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Will Portugal win? | 58,865,837 | 58,865,837 |
3724a71179f3b64547f164c87594239323c748d9 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x5ecf80fbf6b815b11c67f7df710494c03dc5b90aa0e879918cedbcf599ea346d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovakia win Group E? | Event: euro-2024-group-e-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zaccharie Risacher be the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft? | Event: nba-draft-1st-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-20... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-france-vs-belgium | Will France win? | 58,865,837 | 58,865,837 |
367ba24a1685f3e560bb9bbb788f2428d3d698c6 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x6b945e23797043f997b2da0db05d63f16a7bbd18f741c72fb844a76fbf492305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zaccharie Risacher be the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft? | Event: nba-draft-1st-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-2024-venezuela-vs-mexico | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: eu... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-portugal-vs-slovenia | Will the match be a draw? | 58,865,837 | 58,865,837 |
1209e86f193262aec78ef9402b9e2abae2d9d7e9 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x8e8cae51fd12958d6b4753eecd0868b23d63f35f79fbfc9b7aa0755b4e86d0cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-2024-venezuela-vs-mexico | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-czechia-vs-turkey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-2024-ecuador-vs-jam... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Will the match be a draw? | 58,882,919 | 58,882,919 |
2ad6ca6061159657e0f4b4308f466667425e5bdc | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0xbda0d8353af0a94ad5bb2817a3d728c4ad48181cfa872c334ee6bced4535842c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-czechia-vs-turkey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-2024-ecuador-vs-jamaica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-portugal | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Will the Netherlands win? | 58,882,919 | 58,882,919 |
a1e669e4a24d8133d3d90f99c7c560546236dbf8 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0x5ef035d496419c8de2604b390751de6102aee81b05203b6fee3db5312244ffc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: copa-america-2024-ecuador-vs-jamaica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-portugal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexandre Sarr be the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft? | Event: nba... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey | Will Austria win? | 58,902,620 | 58,902,620 |
e9d9ab53b36530933fa91645521243022df9d9d2 | 0x289a51155f27c01d4cca0446c22a89c1f4801909 | 0xb72e6223011ab530279ffd006717d3228cf1ffe89487a5d50bc8f9f680f56ddc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-portugal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexandre Sarr be the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft? | Event: nba-draft-1st-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mexico win? | Event: copa-america-2024-venezuela-vs... | yes | 1 | copa-america-2024-brazil-vs-colombia | Will this match be a draw? | 58,902,620 | 58,902,620 |
46cd7bf694775f9d24fdedb1fa945c7d67252331 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x77cc143ca25f3609e1230252851099b6d372306cd79e6aa23053524e7782c8b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | 76,010,753 | 76,010,753 |
b3b305991afec92990c244300c46ea575d688cdc | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xc21b63eba64876543f05b75ff04d8d57fb120d5ad65d099a946b38c7e9ac6899 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw?
Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Out... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 76,010,755 | 76,010,755 |
1cb87ac1b3c35710bf2d2e3d5249957af8a93c70 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xc8fda364743876d5feadce09332295c5a4421e53b9447c07828f922b46549f2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temp... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on September 14? | 76,466,143 | 76,466,143 |
117fb0e51f0c8058b17456ded9cacd83ca70bbe8 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | 76,594,129 | 76,594,129 |
aecd17a2bf8b96b265985198b058ee3d9a5a661d | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x122a1b23dffc1d3d12035e959bb5f07f8cfc5cc4cc08b082a1b6246755ffaaac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on September 18? | 76,608,127 | 76,608,127 |
fd2b906e837d20c9c1ca5ac16c7a61ff6a7c4e41 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xc24babce57822da0cabb8d469804f2301272c3c5ee27f8278ba59b9b3e7ff759 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on September 14? | 76,633,292 | 76,633,292 |
039577f0f93c2391d24bb5ff5a26d649c56b9229 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x92c7ab75fddc54f98fd874d88d310b4da5acbc7684c4cdf8bbbc4fa891e2a301 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on September 18? | 76,633,302 | 76,633,302 |
b5552feea67520652421be2ca114d0115aa69e60 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x47948641b6e89041988971158a9a2be0ca944b5910973dd3d1338731ffde3796 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 19? | 76,677,005 | 76,677,005 |
7db6b5cbc80922b99d76c48518800acd4c77f816 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x00a7cb9092ac458b5be2bc47c5ecf506a7e6e024cb76aa83581aa0d1beefe674 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-koe-2025-09-20 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-20? | 76,697,840 | 76,697,840 |
fe69b1515a63e3deda320554d87146b4b254f172 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x3851d52747cf856ee2075a1eecf013522054fa6e8441ecc2494b5c0e20fd406e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | mls-aus-sea-2025-09-21 | Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-09-21? | 76,753,327 | 76,753,327 |
2e509468f4f77162aa09fe99872d553c05c77a4f | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x23ba6893bf11ac39eac06d3e373f9656d46193c07d52f8fabcd5ed3651231289 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | fl1-olm-psg-2025-09-22 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22? | 76,798,783 | 76,798,783 |
badf3808e9fa407002e523f9b7885596fd7f7012 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x9ab581add80902a9b0cd1b999bc0aa4ccfa26dc0acef1346b604d43541a4e935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-esp-2025-08-24 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-24? | 76,813,902 | 76,813,902 |
ed93b52f37e590397fe285f7529f649389c021eb | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x6b76aa4ec50164de098d5f83418dc4d77e6cc0df1679054086452327a1812acc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | mex-jua-pum-2025-09-23 | Will FC Juárez win on 2025-09-23? | 76,837,726 | 76,837,726 |
1f62f6b166f24d5b81ff028ba3cf78df5ebed011 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xe529915a63b7fe5366b1132a7dda2113cc532618ea3b8595e6161323bfaa9e31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | mex-leo-maz-2025-09-23 | Will Club León FC win on 2025-09-23? | 76,837,726 | 76,837,726 |
c4d1e2a9377db7d36e6227ba9183bbbdae10437e | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x0bf36b1159983ce7f46fa290572d1e8d1f03f7a6d9e813608922466ae04baefc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | tur-kay-bes-2025-09-24 | Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-09-24? | 76,934,547 | 76,934,547 |
80a05499c7a362686d37f2a2e3ba4eebe17018aa | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x2c17cfbd96352ccd3efc72f8c19e03f0e3540d429f8e5c9c002394ae48eed16f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | lal-rso-mal-2025-09-24 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-24? | 76,934,547 | 76,934,547 |
9daa3107cbb823d0a17797e605d3ffb6fd112f3a | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x3af818501765ee6072000bab5c3aeb37e9b8abaa7898ad7cde01c4be2c6df84b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | uel-paok-mta-2025-09-24 | Will PAOK vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw? | 76,934,547 | 76,934,547 |
b4472421352c5aaac20d4c8d8bdbd8cba4d4f7f4 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x3cdaac98e672eb86b4cb3dd806b2308acb7207e907b4ccfbe580ca22c9e4e186 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? | 76,934,547 | 76,934,547 |
b7769aaaea17db9bf371e8904845b59707dfe5c2 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xc8622b80a382d01315c1bf33bd6d677b45027f103a9fafbc166634895e0e134b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? | 76,934,547 | 76,934,547 |
92d2c8f7e3181d4907e221084a2f7aa3a606bd85 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xd6da77a81d27aed412899450a01b256eaeadf799e9af00f7cb5785710f093a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | uel-din-fen-2025-09-24 | Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-09-24? | 76,934,547 | 76,934,547 |
2c695d3dc0d218706581470e086991b08d483342 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x65903292260b6dbfe141fa9ecde0e129e22db50b2eed1e7c23a8ef940a1fe751 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Girona vs. Espanyol end in a draw? | 76,961,158 | 76,961,158 |
4c447d3aa06af2b6e2a4e43e9100d30d93ca84bc | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x362ebcdb75948f9d74c11ef0b5aae5e1d5f53f69265dc68a2edc06d5432b4f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | mls-nyr-nyc-2025-09-27 | Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-27? | 77,019,307 | 77,019,307 |
d9a9a4c72f453aacb7b68b1aa5818fbd82aca03b | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xcf3f64e73e8298155b57887f0e56ad38a9b9d43753f06ba16a35ec5af0344896 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? | 77,105,739 | 77,105,739 |
f473baab1017041d775814754c8f83f4749c6028 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xf495a559ccafb5bce93873cf6657185101ba8f9f1180350eebb5f720a447b492 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30? | 77,105,739 | 77,105,739 |
cac6ea81ff2c75195056e36e99a1dada5afb29fa | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x5d64b8dc60faa9c94960168b7c8a12b10896e97da285bb56e7eb9704a6e1a2ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30? | 77,106,347 | 77,106,347 |
e9704cbb1f77b6bc67b6796c33c1982e24c33ff7 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0xe7f05bc4906296f7bffd1edd5850da6c291c12c82bdd8117bcdb1ce5f66e8dd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? | 77,107,409 | 77,107,409 |
8cf0623496f305ed79fb7224837d1049bb8b0b6c | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x3bd58a81092f5f3042b40f3242289548649913e99a092901de89f2db6cdc37a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? | 77,163,197 | 77,163,197 |
aedccb13d21de430bf14001b4c89468bfc431b97 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x9aefeb2d5459d5bf13eb9ed80c304a4a18bd0425df71d53a4da2a3827ad89abd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | 77,163,197 | 77,163,197 |
2a28c5c983199fcd24e61686a3e77cb9a80f2602 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | no | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,166,076 | 77,166,076 |
17b132041271218c7cd683ffdd5e516361448380 | 0x28a160cf979c948cc6a6cff73e3dc0b9cc2d435c | 0x49949e2d92fb188563dc8ca296b13f865d57987e0ed285a93c9b885052672e0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Lo... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Will Everton win on 2025-09-29? | 77,166,076 | 77,166,076 |
ed7b25ce8a5da8ab49a49b5df6c2c54717fc75a7 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xb90632b3b530899f399b78f517f9c34a2659640d208bfaa50493cba11d133aa7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25?
Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | 63,344,394 | 63,344,394 |
6d0d283115e7d847b1ff35b92cc3a9843ea02d8b | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xd529689ce9e496343e05974fe5460bc003da72435b8ced55d0c1dac55046bee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25?
Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. O... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | 63,374,064 | 63,374,064 |
87d86e6b99465ca6126974efca105137fda00c35 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x13033198e37a7d148227100458da7b0e66550b4d30d78e4849ac09fda0a0a7f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump tweet 45-... | yes | 0.555556 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25? | 63,472,873 | 63,472,873 |
3a6177211faf3624f344e46e86a4d4d84fe06859 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x83ec6277e0b990f2bfd3d64410379e04878430d836f71bfd10e473561f1512af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | yes | 0.085368 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25? | 63,472,873 | 63,472,873 |
942f80e25804516ee15641df7966cf25dda97e7d | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xb612c57a5a5ab08bedc57d72b6cfd239df8707a6c9274a28075fdc6fd2db8692 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | yes | 0.564525 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25? | 63,472,873 | 63,472,873 |
0c6772b631eb4961a37f7aa5ad2475ee8d2d0bd8 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xbfb24f344e299fc21bb733b8fa5f0280153d1fe79bc1d93b87a33dcfbecb6c77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 300 or more times October 18-25? | 63,472,873 | 63,472,873 |
6f9a46b2d5267c7c1a9f89e9ce1158c3407949b2 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xc713e8ff2c9cb86a3ac37a2e92666ef62ebb89093a29b0f6e2c43f345a68eda6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-25? | 63,472,873 | 63,472,873 |
264f4d926adfd2fc2126cd10bf0bdc4fcddcd8fe | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xd4fd35481eb4c60699eed13e4e1520ab3da9db2fee36239d2e2b5fcd3c0de853 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25? | 63,472,873 | 63,472,873 |
bf47cb07ab59a60aab46099331ff7f0912d2299e | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xe70a2ad7933bcc2de3e20a45315e4faef915a26cb98d15d754be2a722d2ac1ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times October 18-25? | 63,472,873 | 63,472,873 |
376e12b2c20605acbaaf878e3b4831f72276b04e | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x11d4fca6c2efe7efdd0b45df6102912af96f05cf55d21d72c88700bd75a64dec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet less than 150 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
6792dc7c39f95eda1af3be0a1b1e8bcc4db2cecb | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x19d243d3ee68e5f3c755dabfd5c4d6dffb05d45a5a4de26f6b281b2688f7dae7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 150-174 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
6f10ea483db77cd63634980c58e2c5c4b50c3670 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x230bef53c5fecc2290eb71323e887efe3a5d933e96e17e5f6fe12a4d0967c1c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
3320f7783ad5adae1d3deedda89e3658a923aaa4 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x285e4aabc9c3c3234e3bd8f1e35aecde7dbb7cec879a53b231a2bd78831a3c63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
513b282bbfdf8f41efa0222c27dc892a04d405c1 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x304d51387ba144ce767972b037a1fcdefd67010e0d6fbd5d5c685298ff1b4c6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
208155e6a90df8feb3569da4e4e38aabdd0efd31 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x5383e52fb235c0126d6e33b6ffa40a247da448a0d0ee8c3a66152b9fd1c1234e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
67fe6eb07a2550db9bb87480672fec8ee87c81c1 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x5831edbb85d2d22c899fe493ffed5893b242f361dc2828b8f1c3427d288e62ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
0f300707dd70c6fa4091f1734a4a9beb22e5111f | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x592818e7dbbce75a14b032dae0df9e68bd2fb68e0f2581c0acaeb66b0e5c63ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 175-199 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
93e7ad1cc27e0c2b4ad10b74628ed037977a867d | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xbd2479aa97e37c9ca4539852c8b5a2a69c4c4632d39ab856f0fe069ecfe96a43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,308 | 63,784,308 |
ef6f1deaa7b874dfd4a4fe3c463db31f2d98aeba | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x063077dfaacebe2cf14a9289911741efb1f45299bcab69752a9ffb63e3f45210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Dani Carvajal win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,784,331 | 63,784,331 |
9a24a72f841b7e77b91837d8b6b77fbad04f26b9 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x81d3b78939693cb9b4613408ad4bfd751dfcdf96bac396a5e9d0f48f1f7d338b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,331 | 63,784,331 |
bfe31886cc57ad4b02d756e6f1ea4100d98c46d9 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xf2b508f1d31da8b9d7b02ab3b9bd9cdd6df3ccab156390335bc641fb8bc6b869 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will another player win the Ballon d'Or? | 63,784,331 | 63,784,331 |
c8f4fd9aeced09eec28edef7fb217190b1946ea1 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0xf8022618d95dd46f59db1a7bc394cae964a5443faae724d035831fe289de17fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,784,331 | 63,784,331 |
4454bb23b6b2c88a79d2a540403a0d8da3c940d1 | 0x28b0aef235589df59576742e919d664652ce098f | 0x0996ac2d41f8503283dffa6701ac3076ac009031666b2ddf74d306c71351bbc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 45-49 times Octo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 550-574 times November 1-8? | 64,832,572 | 64,832,572 |
edf7722ff84cce74d73b49d9059648123be5f0c2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb0764afeddaf2dc507572c50a476596c60134817252b27cfbe3dd73d78af22b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET?
Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | 76,885,911 | 76,885,911 |
8b0378f34e6e9f09746881b82cd1815383d16dbb | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8070698e5dbe25602b803ad60a93a7376919bd04cf1c65073c6be9ac18c80139 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?
Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Out... | yes | 1 | israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | 76,905,394 | 76,905,394 |
5e16827fa5a06411a0475f43d93d80ef8f6d4ffe | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xbace36f88d920c2816fd59547e6ae0364861ec2bd126c02b06ce1b527032a416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Netanyahu's UN s... | yes | 1 | how-many-minutes-will-benjamin-netanyahus-un-speech-be | Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more than 40 minutes long? | 76,934,805 | 76,934,805 |
26ccf80fab0caad32e7e52087dc45c62b3295c8f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x3a38f46a8e8673de9d72b7a1e8af0dca16109b78515562a887fd3c18e3643958 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | rus-kss-din-2025-09-26 | Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Dinamo Moskva end in a draw? | 76,994,059 | 76,994,059 |
e6bf28fa0c6d45b9ca8696f13d602ce643e1a652 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x81bfce46e919641f8eb7e43e6e1510768255102bd9c79871b63d181edfa47452 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | motogp-world-championship-winner | Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP World Championship? | 77,005,109 | 77,005,109 |
9c6c235134ba49e7799182a8882c41cd643432b8 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8e0d4aaa457594bb8e91bb9b4b5a82d58261aa224e6412ed3edcf5caeb651cae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | cdr-man-los-2025-09-27 | Will Manises CF win on 2025-09-27? | 77,008,188 | 77,008,188 |
5ca34855ac8a3a71591a9b6580584f035290ea47 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x7b5aeed4521916f99c32c96bd4c33b8b403bad48ff9517c2584b141218ad26ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | rus-csk-bal-2025-09-28 | Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2025-09-28? | 77,012,868 | 77,012,868 |
eb9207990ad5c362ca9a0919007077dfb25c5ef2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x38f1ef47821249f229245352d5deee604d95fb0c86aa4cd0e4892223d0d1aa37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | what-positions-will-travis-hunter-play | Will Travis Hunter play offense and defense? | 77,072,233 | 77,072,233 |
7c3c8453e91a388593d206e6e6fac8e3cccd4887 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb66b80374ba2d2578b2570c0032ef81be5736b6a319899daa33534bc16682d1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | what-positions-will-travis-hunter-play | Travis Hunter doesn't play Offense or Defense in first 4 games? | 77,072,233 | 77,072,233 |
55376489d05cc3ee4a6cab117738fc32ce4b0259 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xaf2846e2dc6379a3713b552961a3072fbb38c1d793d0ed247dd82e94310d8b71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | 77,098,196 | 77,098,196 |
a2a8e8f5b926b2e61fb4be7ba25b67a760b17c7a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x5252e1eff61bb24aead65206b9a03c782a1779783126e098b718739f5fbcc9d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 0.752417 | when-will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET? | 77,139,083 | 77,139,083 |
f3b2f9988ee19e157b392086e388da3be96d66a2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x59b1bcdbbddb9e6fe148ac123a75f5ffd6b5d832449254a30dc9d4505ed974b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 0.999977 | when-will-israel-first-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET? | 77,139,083 | 77,139,083 |
4738d14df0e1962e2c8fdfa96cba9a61dfc3d9b5 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x02244d47485323da111143980140299d9fe9371082cc830603ef7377fe773a5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | september-inflation-argentina-annual | Will annual inflation increase by between 33% and 35.9% in September? | 77,711,933 | 77,711,933 |
6119a7762233387fce98892d389fec9e95daf344 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1428f719f5ecab1d812dfa35d5f6b04583ba4d11dcba011dc2a9a4a176dd7bb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | september-inflation-argentina-annual | Will annual inflation increase by between 27% and 29.9% in September? | 77,711,933 | 77,711,933 |
3ee11cd3ab2bcc74bb85669d4522c46829e57161 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x5d66a0b5fd7f2cbd5628a4b3886d1ca91778d02e6315846e2d874e04ac698b7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | september-inflation-argentina-annual | Will annual inflation increase by less than 27% in September? | 77,711,933 | 77,711,933 |
2615cc14f12ac458978140e15fd9d38fa0044d3e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x7df41b289c120dcc2e961ca7c278d1da5c5cf06a10e62ca184dc78144fcc9b31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | september-inflation-argentina-annual | Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in September? | 77,711,933 | 77,711,933 |
9525f4ae83bd22b606ff31583b94cb5264196c5b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xa09db47f65ea745d03b1808809c1e96f49dea0e36e9cf24e34201937c08d9bc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | september-inflation-argentina-annual | Will annual inflation increase by between 36% and 38.9% in September? | 77,711,933 | 77,711,933 |
1869d10fb35aea63810ef46758af53afa1cf4881 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x168ea105fdaca9d81ad0b4d4bd99c884d6248d775b7071a7c370bd875e28cd8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | number-of-cuomo-x-mamdani-debates-before-election | Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate one time before election? | 78,059,742 | 78,059,742 |
c37d510d855f63c4e9c0d83269c1ca29ceabc09f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xf4e97cc94437e18f716df2e5729e5d6f7f15f51d468a29818b1b76f6806408c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | number-of-cuomo-x-mamdani-debates-before-election | Will Cuomo x Mamdani not debate before election? | 78,059,742 | 78,059,742 |
7b4ada84ad20136fe6f352e702c7c410361d6d2f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1657c111ea5929ab30f980d8c627a209696ea89699a96622acfb471468fcf133 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | ere-sit-gro-2025-10-25 | Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-10-25? | 78,158,417 | 78,158,417 |
1d501d2bacfbc17f763775084dd4fef04a5ae1b8 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x54dbe3141685aa914d957cde254a23e2cccf30f8adae68a82cc5d0eb43b2a9e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | spl-qad-okh-2025-10-25 | Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw? | 78,158,417 | 78,158,417 |
b679fbdc81779fb9b6c65509f1184f7e8cf476a0 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd3cc6c78b506f6757a3e10669efa277acc9800c1378abbaf956e9f0fd4052699 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-945 | Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%? | 78,158,417 | 78,158,417 |
ca6f2f40018253d831d30e98d12e1bf6717a131d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x0c3b65c7bb09f687af5c85265f49a6aa6fcf8cea3c0406f963eb82a6f58dc41e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-945 | Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? | 78,159,560 | 78,159,560 |
00d8c18e430c59b3ff3f3b23c84bb1d32e18213b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4dc32205ae27e615c5a680f90eafdd1c8ca1539ba5e1949222cda8d97ea542a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Will CD Santa Clara vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw? | 78,162,988 | 78,162,988 |
fc9c0db22fde6a273a849f2722ba34050c473be8 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x6905d502a97eea2bcbaf3cfdf9d54e3442fdca21d4780f51a1c9d591c12e78ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Will CD Santa Clara win on 2025-10-25? | 78,162,988 | 78,162,988 |
033547ae74fc24df6b34d078ec5454fa10f0bb5d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8ef9f7272bdc4fe7c680887b6c99738241789b5d672c08f85afaddf220b46f21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Will AVS Futebol win on 2025-10-25? | 78,162,988 | 78,162,988 |
90731f6e8ee2c424f76f515128ccc1382bdb3e3a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x0a4a9ca32f21fa7c6ce19e8fbe745897bb8a5f22668f9d2ce19e178479eaa36a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | spl-haz-nsr-2025-10-25 | Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-10-25? | 78,164,817 | 78,164,817 |
4ddc24ed21c8e4ee72ca22725cfbc9f3b77ef94b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8b78bbe083863caa238c29e5b92b45da492433f4ca77cfacb4b610ac3ec837ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | spl-haz-nsr-2025-10-25 | Will Al Hazem SC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,164,817 | 78,164,817 |
ae2ccafbf8c5825f313b47fd1441db7c2ae7b1a6 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x5d06e92f945c8c021e486865737ec154f5f0ee3e801ed7b8ca37063d9f6b3d2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Will CA Mineiro vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | 78,166,462 | 78,166,462 |
5ab080df21703ccf0bfa123df74ca6fd523e052e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x119dedde0a3577683d850d8e11dd205af2ebc5ae83895e93536734e886bb7856 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | yes | 1 | fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
726d9a3e0dbf09fabbbcd144bd01198269b73c4f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1bd183881c51a015ff2db18c2bc7a7bbd31bfb758a26f881b85acb036f2b51c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more... | no | 1 | fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
adabfd6be9789153cbcc24f9c7117dcd76bf1549 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4dba6a665e383075531a5cf183fd0fbdb0f054c96886fc5576e8a1efc38ece95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | Event: israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more than 40 minutes long? | Event: how-many-minutes-will-benjamin-netanyahus-un-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Will NEC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
be63d6692731a862bfa8e81b56d2cdf8db50d8d0 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x62f3744c7b483c50b415df0f09024e581d2a64bfd0646cd654d2e4b15ceae835 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more than 40 minutes long? | Event: how-many-minutes-will-benjamin-netanyahus-un-speech-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Dinamo Moskva end in a draw? | Event: rus-kss-din-2025-09-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
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