sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a3c95923bb97a787dd292767e1ba8041385ccb4a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x73b24765e4bede69fc4a1f02ebd3b6bb98a81c21b71f0be68a8746ab52c9c7d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Dinamo Moskva end in a draw? | Event: rus-kss-din-2025-09-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP World Championship? | Event: motogp-world-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
9c0b81a0fa1eee5a75cb7b2c31b61ae04b144833 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8156c8887f48b1f4629a6a3930edf7d35b0a47bb2fd97e9619c75bf6b6ee031a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP World Championship? | Event: motogp-world-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manises CF win on 2025-09-27? | Event: cdr-man-los-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2... | yes | 1 | bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
4fba2cc8796f791040b0ddd78307680a3b02aa15 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb41d7c900a8f2450deb1a12e1ab60b33c811d5c045bafde89ab85f3a857328c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manises CF win on 2025-09-27? | Event: cdr-man-los-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2025-09-28? | Event: rus-csk-bal-2025-09-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Travis Hunter play offense and defense? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Will PEC Zwolle vs. NEC end in a draw? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
4437a4797de9e08f8469ba7f7ce07d3b48d2063b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xc67e8823560db008cd1b04a3355cace16a0e6c8fa017651dbd818232c2ca42f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2025-09-28? | Event: rus-csk-bal-2025-09-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Travis Hunter play offense and defense? | Event: what-positions-will-travis-hunter-play | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Travis Hunter doesn't play Offen... | no | 1 | bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Will EC Vitória vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
edf9a5363665e45ea12e99c215dc2fd4de57aff3 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xc747cef9c5c8d38e13be23f740ceae125c5b68be806c20fd152d83cb2e071f7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Travis Hunter play offense and defense? | Event: what-positions-will-travis-hunter-play | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Travis Hunter doesn't play Offense or Defense in first 4 games? | Event: what-positions-will-travis-hunter-play | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Will EC Vitória win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
eb2f311a5d266af13e73407ad7863b3ccc1bfd0f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd7dee17bc7e050bf272083ac1e9c44ed8c5414e663a01b546ef10d6654b6b771 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Travis Hunter doesn't play Offense or Defense in first 4 games? | Event: what-positions-will-travis-hunter-play | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,406 | 78,167,406 |
423a95f4721ad8b6756574b879d1a2c852b5d55f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x05fecba30a30b34c4d7593901f4af6b659cefe4e0fa34af0234b9f345d7d2802 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET? | Event: when-will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0... | yes | 1 | jap-yom-san-2025-10-25 | Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2025-10-25? | 78,172,262 | 78,172,262 |
e3404d18e6d0c7f4f0bfb440edd80dbfffcdefd2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xbe2920f7548e4804a299b84d3cbae1814c5cb8d50e0ef2be0d3bb7e798df61b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET? | Event: when-will-israel-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7524173600179896
2. Question: Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET? | Event: when-will-israel-first-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | jap-yom-san-2025-10-25 | Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw? | 78,172,262 | 78,172,262 |
ee784bda7915161e60a504a88ea76daf5494bb23 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd5f9fe811279d23ecd3c53d27177dd643ed03ad49ef5ac5234af273754e33838 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET? | Event: when-will-israel-first-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999770384635145
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by between 33% and 35.9% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice... | yes | 1 | bra-rec-mir-2025-10-25 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,172,262 | 78,172,262 |
47966719501ea5ef3722e92517e3c225e8460881 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x5603c9a9d784c56afe9cfa57b3a3916252de4c1369ab710c09e35255d88141ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by between 33% and 35.9% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by between 27% and 29.9% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Will Fortaleza EC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? | 78,174,777 | 78,174,777 |
9733894dfb99e2977cd8a7bab1659c2440dbb669 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xcc18973ac4cc6bed7f504577606d2c372ba19dcf3e11b1f831603bea8a243f01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by between 27% and 29.9% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by less than 27% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | mex-tig-tij-2025-10-25 | Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-10-25? | 78,174,777 | 78,174,777 |
193ef76f97c72aea7217a082b1ed7408e604d969 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xcd0584cc42c7869bc28d977a951086549c08fd89c42a5515154508dd51a1ca49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by less than 27% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | 78,174,777 | 78,174,777 |
5b52eb20b856b5f78480c221ae3d9f9dbdc6d28f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xcf732d475659b90d2ca8402832e2d4209a8626891aebaba2ed66cb4515698e30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by between 36% and 38.9% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,174,777 | 78,174,777 |
e74a555ab4dd970da57103d482358d80a2fc5f18 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xebfd9630918dd8d375030e6ec8251f1be7986ddcbf573cb12943733e98179989 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by between 36% and 38.9% in September? | Event: september-inflation-argentina-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate one time before election? | Event: number-of-cuomo-x-mamdani-debates-before-election | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-25? | 78,174,777 | 78,174,777 |
3a11b9032c1d8d95ec88a172a0a7e946f711db77 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x2302ea31c88a299bbed85172bd24e0de34e0fee309364c1171b361a362bbba3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate one time before election? | Event: number-of-cuomo-x-mamdani-debates-before-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cuomo x Mamdani not debate before election? | Event: number-of-cuomo-x-mamdani-debates-before-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Will CD Guadalajara vs. Atlas FC end in a draw? | 78,177,747 | 78,177,747 |
b53006354fc8e38a8b05abf6ed0450dd50a56bb1 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9b1f5aea40fa67292e698f5664906ec71867f76c0d3b55f6399ceee2d0b9b477 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cuomo x Mamdani not debate before election? | Event: number-of-cuomo-x-mamdani-debates-before-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-sit-gro-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi C... | no | 1 | mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Will Atlas FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,177,747 | 78,177,747 |
fe441f64117b0ef20a64499a1bbcea1eb2d68c0b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xcfa974e16b6d48245cbbf6a21d834ad99b0d9a1e80d3fbc8a21bb75e196cc915 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-sit-gro-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-qad-okh-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%... | yes | 1 | mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-10-25? | 78,177,747 | 78,177,747 |
03641c644aaaae6d1983da2cd97fc9ae4c58145e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x33b4b6828a6edf08cc0ac1fbb894c70192a656499f55f34843ffd20ff94514d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw? | Event: spl-qad-okh-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-945 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodr... | yes | 1 | kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | 78,190,412 | 78,190,412 |
110de6a76a1190729a59b37f44ba36172fa523cd | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x74a266914dd5c20198393e5dfc8e5e2aa947d4ea38bbfb080c88a19b982545f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-945 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-945 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Will Vegalta Sendai vs. Sagan Tosu end in a draw? | 78,190,412 | 78,190,412 |
3fcd6bf460b80068d9268f287edd71fdc341d593 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x846b528390cacbe69011c56d68f76fb3c41a4e6dfe2392258efd99ea7d2f2b45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-945 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Santa Clara vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw? | Event: por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Santa Clara w... | no | 1 | ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | 78,190,412 | 78,190,412 |
9c0aa9b17edd21d2f0f78ff9fe213e762b2c47c3 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd72753e6d87b08f5208697dcae49847ed73406b7f91ae23cde99045a62aa68f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Santa Clara vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw? | Event: por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Santa Clara win on 2025-10-25? | Event: por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AVS Futebol win on 2025-10-25? | Event: por-c... | yes | 1 | aus-wel-bri-2025-10-25 | Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,190,412 | 78,190,412 |
e76b83c772f6a523aa41c6ae0dcb5e684b2031d5 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x601304b3db3bb19a779ed7fecd8970ab92a30d0dafeec6e243a81d21d334037e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Santa Clara win on 2025-10-25? | Event: por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AVS Futebol win on 2025-10-25? | Event: por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-10-25? | Event: spl-haz-nsr-... | no | 1 | rus-nov-bal-2025-10-26 | Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-10-26? | 78,204,161 | 78,204,161 |
fd9f2f4aca4e2e362b34a5bff8a0d8e2614cebda | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xbc984f682b301098255bbbddd9fe6482203fa1d8eed2cde075ad3496f628a502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AVS Futebol win on 2025-10-25? | Event: por-cds-avs-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-10-25? | Event: spl-haz-nsr-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Hazem SC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: spl-haz-nsr-202... | yes | 1 | rus-nov-bal-2025-10-26 | Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad end in a draw? | 78,204,161 | 78,204,161 |
cebf6ad66b8d6e278374389804bde0889c5f0594 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xf9eb387ffa11ace6c8d69bd45fc72d6813b44c4da14ec8a591337a3a299965ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-10-25? | Event: spl-haz-nsr-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Hazem SC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: spl-haz-nsr-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Mineiro vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cam... | yes | 1 | 2025-swiss-indoors-basel-doubles-winner | Will Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos win the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel Men’s Doubles Tournament? | 78,204,161 | 78,204,161 |
d4364352a2b47409e06cf6825203cae3b3c4bcb5 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xfad73df4e2f9d3a0a5fcd04e7f257ddc1466f3010b10faf365f729f0ed08bdbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Hazem SC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: spl-haz-nsr-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Mineiro vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-25? | Event: fl1-rcl-... | no | 1 | 2025-swiss-indoors-basel-doubles-winner | Will Adam Pavlásek and Jan Zieliński win the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel Men’s Doubles Tournament? | 78,204,161 | 78,204,161 |
f65c936425cd06692e28fdf42eb0d72132ba6fd4 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x3e3f8feacd87e788b52bf6710d1f888fc84e84bccda6328f3d63319b1d39a1a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Mineiro vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-25? | Event: fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille ... | no | 1 | ere-goa-exc-2025-10-26 | Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw? | 78,210,859 | 78,210,859 |
4662f4cb9006c2f0f3903f2936d00907d8684fb8 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x23faf646458492c2196db5f08927dfc4696e8f6205dba00f93c086bba4fd8d7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-25? | Event: fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? | Event: fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NEC win on 2025-10-25? |... | no | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | 78,216,317 | 78,216,317 |
f7d6206dfde206c21eec78bcf7cd56ad0247f0b6 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4a488519b97925b1424d39a0f686430fb1d11e9fc5ca0065c253ef66f891e380 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? | Event: fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NEC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-... | no | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | 78,216,317 | 78,216,317 |
abf84db5c7d732d03619dabbd22d5388292f9e00 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x21a6711dd8e8b055c94c43e5baf64e4d35073815dee188fead833e25280758a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NEC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-26? | 78,218,056 | 78,218,056 |
3f806421b4b94b86ad288aede8fa408949609966 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4170d8a355785ac56a4f356436f2d0f390e031f581ccf81ebb6caff29cc35c46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Choi... | no | 1 | mex-san-que-2025-10-26 | Will Club Santos Laguna vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw? | 78,218,056 | 78,218,056 |
331b7387607981bfe872ee22c71d59e17b7a590d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8a006b769d8d0bcf8db4a95860f7bab4a4f9cb67c18c157c0ecb4027f592fe8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-10-25? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PEC Zwolle vs. NEC end in a draw? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25... | no | 1 | bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-26? | 78,218,056 | 78,218,056 |
fd99c0257e35451fcac75d533d879ca8f9cac22d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xf0b10388cc038fd146b5e4e4e983cb4605446af8079775f778c31e2c5a62e45f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PEC Zwolle vs. NEC end in a draw? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Vitória vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? | Even... | yes | 1 | bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? | 78,218,056 | 78,218,056 |
7c514446e08ed888ef0490e9eb32c4e5f8d5be6b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x7926d9d38882ba01dfdfdfea316a6f2fa57f75a1528d3db3db6beaddc0865ef3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PEC Zwolle vs. NEC end in a draw? | Event: ere-zwo-nec-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will EC Vitória vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? | Event: bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-10-25? | Even... | no | 1 | maplight-therapeutics-inc-ipo-closing-market-capitalization | Will MapLight not IPO by December 31, 2025? | 78,286,545 | 78,286,545 |
2e7a6da9e470e74f4cef0ac79053f2be3a52c519 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9bb4c67be8cd6ef289d81e92c26b18d5bdee9f05efa8ef8dd0f5e013dad5cbcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Vitória vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? | Event: bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-2... | no | 1 | maplight-therapeutics-inc-ipo-closing-market-capitalization | Will MapLight Therapeutics Inc IPO closing market capitalization be below 700 million? | 78,286,545 | 78,286,545 |
925f90d39ff5142abf49fc96da9c90656113c602 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1423ef66dce34a39d4d3b85a6058acede43ae869ded6bd93f19fabba295fee36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap... | no | 1 | dfb-ber-elv-2025-10-28 | Will Hertha BSC vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? | 78,293,179 | 78,293,179 |
da1b695e2dd0849a65584032450d065fcece6192 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x84ba24eaddc646338e31b98051560c14751b0723bad7182869bf78cf393ad587 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-yom-san-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima... | yes | 1 | dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-28? | 78,293,399 | 78,293,399 |
32c33bbebc18b71139e31a24c04b3d104c3fd616 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x93015d35ee61f7ef18b26d10ec99ba1cd4eab17020a19471cd40b7f9111e1210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-yom-san-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw? | Event: jap-yom-san-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-25... | no | 1 | dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | 78,293,399 | 78,293,399 |
9eaa1dd83752372020d186953bb4ea088aaaaf4f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4010e21f14792a22da574aebf6df9317a25e5a31b27f23b5952cf46a5803f0b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw? | Event: jap-yom-san-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-rec-mir-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. CR Flamengo end in ... | no | 1 | atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | 78,295,246 | 78,295,246 |
21a698e92be232fd5701b6218d876d67739aa83d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xfd0c8135cccf766ee58ee8c714002a659b55c1223760a54a5c022c2c424166b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-rec-mir-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-... | no | 1 | atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Will Learner Tien win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | 78,295,703 | 78,295,703 |
0a7390a85723e8a2abf9a5fb41c8aeac251d08ee | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x0930e7d1051accbd9b9ff7ed9cc30c146a18d59d6f91669d7e151bc51f11048b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-tig-tij-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand P... | no | 1 | efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,297,568 | 78,297,568 |
d8a45fb28a9ee53ba8d82d510f2779099775f1f2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x38d69a7cc1ba02974032035d546f2676d5ba843c134b5e49b506d2b1741083f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-tig-tij-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | efl-ful-wyc-2025-10-28 | Will Fulham FC vs. Wycombe Wanderers FC end in a draw? | 78,298,748 | 78,298,748 |
d9bc78cffa7ed5053fdc3c23ab7ad1b663f0e56b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x577676fa12f1ffa84ab6832260ecd84a9cc5ccce93a1598dcd46e6adc73d1b3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-25?... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 29? | 78,304,422 | 78,304,422 |
01372476ddc5e6ae51b12ecd9e9425b52fe0e85a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x82ae2c86d5a8d8e98350c96a5ae151c1a6bd14e18df3370492231d1709c0a425 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Guadalajara vs. Atlas FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-gua-at... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | 78,394,870 | 78,394,870 |
098a82435f7a45533e9ffe7f223fff9b031da366 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x890bdebb2eca0261e332bff42d3b36a2457bf5ff4cc85078eab08fba0c568adf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Guadalajara vs. Atlas FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atlas FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-gua-atl-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 31? | 78,401,949 | 78,401,949 |
b7a9854a93457a0f4a8dbd07e3eac17d52e5485d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x030679e3a4fcea8c84d0bcba54b3c5a92bb3fd6f9f04d17152d3e536b79a77cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Guadalajara vs. Atlas FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atlas FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-gua-atl-... | no | 1 | kor-dae1-seo-2025-11-01 | Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. FC Seoul end in a draw? | 78,443,584 | 78,443,584 |
1e19ec47f6b4f8501bad4a2d1b8db55948020d8d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x823d7961ff6308683bee9e5145487928a0bf33fa3c9180d7d41165ff0365e511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atlas FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | C... | yes | 1 | how-many-countries-will-israel-strike-in-october | Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025? | 78,443,584 | 78,443,584 |
e7a308030f844d11bf119a2e167f4e9386eb473c | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd4b8becf948ec2a8cee806a80f3a7b3d39a65bf73b175deee1aa1ca890b98533 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-10-25? | Event: mex-gua-atl-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vegalta Sendai vs. Sagan Tosu end in a draw? | Event: ja2-veg-... | no | 1 | aus-auc-ade-2025-11-01 | Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? | 78,443,584 | 78,443,584 |
05d788b1ecda7509cb3cf8c07693a821d0b244ad | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xdf1a9a3fe267d5627ef9da3c7905ef483d447de599356444c08d13749fada668 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vegalta Sendai vs. Sagan Tosu end in a draw? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2... | yes | 1 | how-many-israeli-strikes-on-yemen-by-october-31 | Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31? | 78,443,584 | 78,443,584 |
f7045672f266f09d4174d41611ba3495189792b2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xf17979ef7ccb08241b4e145b06db3f6318aa6596a9ea5c59bd0be8281265f8c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vegalta Sendai vs. Sagan Tosu end in a draw? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: a... | yes | 1 | aus-auc-ade-2025-11-01 | Will Auckland FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,443,584 | 78,443,584 |
14abe5f25239f54e765600c5e6eaab875f169435 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xfb45c9362041b7b22c699e25350718d30e6bb25041f7e55de9af71bf8a018635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: aus-wel-bri-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-10-26? | Event: r... | no | 1 | kor-gwo-jeo-2025-11-01 | Will Gangwon FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,443,668 | 78,443,668 |
2c3b7c874e4c7395e5d95cf121a483c0464fd042 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1785e571f10a554a8092cf0b1c8f2957264a60cf9b7a0b039072912635b01e8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-10-25? | Event: aus-wel-bri-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-10-26? | Event: rus-nov-bal-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Baltika ... | no | 1 | navan-ipo-day-1-closing-market-cap | Will Navan Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 5 billion and 6 billion? | 78,466,412 | 78,466,412 |
de16595a9b06ae4c2a64b556f87b604b7a15b079 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9ea434232c3384441943d814c65be215384ffc6b5372665f044b5d9075e9aa99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-10-26? | Event: rus-nov-bal-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad end in a draw? | Event: rus-nov-bal-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Marcel Granoll... | no | 1 | navan-ipo-day-1-closing-market-cap | Will Navan Inc not IPO by December 31, 2025? | 78,466,412 | 78,466,412 |
3115f07b46d2e35658bb10a9301a9d9fe38184ef | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1bb375d8b1d13c456ab462132c911634c983c516aa521d8670a253a2453e3ca4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad end in a draw? | Event: rus-nov-bal-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos win the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel Men’s Doubles Tournament? | Event: 2025-swiss-indoors-basel-doubles... | no | 1 | 2025-mlb-postseason-most-home-runs | Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs in the 2025 MLB Postseason? | 78,492,679 | 78,492,679 |
10f3f737daec49b5820a5bf0a751052bdb8a5e68 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x7d4d6916fa50ad0be01c1c065a6b3ad95f5d444c18fc6b766a99d31173469303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos win the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel Men’s Doubles Tournament? | Event: 2025-swiss-indoors-basel-doubles-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Adam Pavlásek and Jan Zieliński win the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel Men’s Doubles Tournament? ... | no | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,498,290 | 78,498,290 |
ce032ef755eabb03cb6de880521c2ec26c908ed5 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x757f265b8c92963d9e4ff8f78e102a26854e53384f66cdc17b33e1f6add26cb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Adam Pavlásek and Jan Zieliński win the 2025 Swiss Indoors Basel Men’s Doubles Tournament? | Event: 2025-swiss-indoors-basel-doubles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw? | Event: ere-goa-exc-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Con... | no | 1 | tur-kay-kas-2025-11-02 | Will Kayserispor vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? | 78,503,322 | 78,503,322 |
8a5c2b6deaa5df6fbdbc86d9f9b36a818f882322 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xc0ccbdadc3b92b954c0bf36de26e270cca570b0be0fef3f33d003d340dbcb9cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw? | Event: ere-goa-exc-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Choice: no | Confide... | yes | 1 | atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | 78,503,322 | 78,503,322 |
a1999982db84a09e97724f17fefe6510657250ac | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x2e74dd2439a9b97a8c62e54e8ba07671e1238b7addc8971949b1b70b50e33de7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | Event: mexican-grand-pr... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,506,367 | 78,506,367 |
4646a86f7660a3806e63027c12c6f1189605ae7c | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xde6fcefd9a8cad8fd99ed020b38d51e84d6523147fcbeaf59b1490bacfa98fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | Event: mexican-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,804 | 78,506,804 |
4ed0200c1a895c54317dc84b3ae3fb99bc51aeed | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x822b2afd3dfda2d00d4fc2681bbde3cc514a6c66a5b3ff2dc9c5760697bb6fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Santos Laguna vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-san-que-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bra... | no | 1 | fl1-nan-met-2025-11-02 | Will FC Nantes vs. FC Metz end in a draw? | 78,507,408 | 78,507,408 |
98427e71218852aa52a0a1ec2791cb7a3ec7f280 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb9215e3edf2abfa2d97ec03df5b3d721def8cbf15cc186561fd445c53a1f468c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Santos Laguna vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-san-que-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?... | yes | 1 | fl1-lil-ang-2025-11-02 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,507,408 | 78,507,408 |
08007274cd6a48721336d21ac56abbc930fbe7d9 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9971b0cc62c4030d64aa4251fc2a2fed4cd34b682ff7a179c00c59d553615edb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-26? | Event: bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? | Event: bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MapLight not IPO by December 31, 2025? | Event: m... | yes | 1 | den-nor-ode-2025-11-02 | Will Odense BK win on 2025-11-02? | 78,509,278 | 78,509,278 |
76365d8510be60e9e485a310ddc992e02882389f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xc11de8162cbb11723773cfdd1a2dc464d33d40556cdf9a9dd8869402b7020ae7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? | Event: bra-pal-cru-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MapLight not IPO by December 31, 2025? | Event: maplight-therapeutics-inc-ipo-closing-market-capitalization | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MapLi... | no | 1 | den-nor-ode-2025-11-02 | Will FC Nordsjælland vs. Odense BK end in a draw? | 78,509,278 | 78,509,278 |
ddb90f9ffeb38101367667aeb59a6bd89729851d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xbc9cf57c0e71030d7513e7ba4485b39615e06f41b1f7b710a8ae575e1f2d2299 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MapLight not IPO by December 31, 2025? | Event: maplight-therapeutics-inc-ipo-closing-market-capitalization | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MapLight Therapeutics Inc IPO closing market capitalization be below 700 million? | Event: maplight-therapeutics-inc-ipo-closing-ma... | no | 1 | nor-tro-sar-2025-11-02 | Will Tromsø IL vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF end in a draw? | 78,510,768 | 78,510,768 |
da1e95c4a237665cb350ac30907bc86edb2ad0a3 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4a956dc62a84c17054b827aa8460de9b948384e051239e52c7c4b6a8b965c151 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MapLight Therapeutics Inc IPO closing market capitalization be below 700 million? | Event: maplight-therapeutics-inc-ipo-closing-market-capitalization | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hertha BSC vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? | Event: dfb-ber-elv-2025-10-28 | Choice:... | no | 1 | cs2-intel-extreme-masters-chengdu-winner | Will Heroic win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament? | 78,621,149 | 78,621,149 |
a8fbacca18994561ad5c2e89daa5f185c72911ba | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x867bbc89cc338245606679dd6f7cc3823f5361a432fa8a9ca0ab6e48d58dc946 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hertha BSC vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? | Event: dfb-ber-elv-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV end in ... | no | 1 | where-will-quinnen-williams-be-traded | Will Quinnen Williams not be traded? | 78,621,149 | 78,621,149 |
0f17af5745482ec8fc70103a2a43517c6aac046e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8d521878e62beeea6d33e86c60ce114269ad09eee6a6f6e0fa76805a7e31746f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | Event: dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Rolex Paris... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 5? | 78,636,938 | 78,636,938 |
ee90dc554dfbd112615b5e9fb1ca1751db7f632b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x62d3b926e67bda057967472e8804ae371ce2e36a1cd3aa0e370b7765c7aa349a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | Event: dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | eth-perpswick-edgex-winner | Will Arnav win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? | 78,661,182 | 78,661,182 |
9c7ca6b1f56f5dd5b6f9cf4b3a681d600ee3baaf | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x93240b5d40ccd32157f19906ead95955835aeca1aaeffe8e93b32bc1aa6dff4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Learner Tien win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: n... | no | 1 | 2025-fide-world-cup-third-place | Will Hans Moke Niemann finish third in the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | 78,668,370 | 78,668,370 |
af800ed58a456854598ea30ee894fd91573b7fb6 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x112e22bb8503883196f5a6d1dd50605638cbcb84947b98e0d4c5e1923a6bb5c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Learner Tien win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham FC vs. ... | no | 1 | col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-06? | 78,684,277 | 78,684,277 |
607e2e2cc4cf28f8868b18a6e68d9791cdc3969a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x327e398a261c3ab3c236d51bd3c97ed79da0d008ffeab39ddb8b266bbf741c9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham FC vs. Wycombe Wanderers FC end in a draw? | Event: efl-ful-wyc-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between... | no | 1 | col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? | 78,684,277 | 78,684,277 |
feaf8700325989590194f1057159eba0a685ddd2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xcfaa2a03ffd0a376936f1053492144c349933074a57937d267c9999e10a8561d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham FC vs. Wycombe Wanderers FC end in a draw? | Event: efl-ful-wyc-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | col-aek-abe-2025-11-06 | Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,684,277 | 78,684,277 |
7682c50a424b1c50ebbd8ad59e3d41c8929807f5 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd295665ee26c4e47628d5c58daf17d0128ea26f6ddbcf89822f6903e2b3d49fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06? | 78,684,277 | 78,684,277 |
24ed06d85f346f586709a75244d7efb16888b7f9 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd3133fe5296fb977de963c57cb84071ca64832412f83ad59fe933a3763d0ae89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | uel-mal2-pao2-2025-11-06 | Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2025-11-06? | 78,684,277 | 78,684,277 |
c00db108cf4d4330ad9cc2b8197dce8d2f9ac61e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xfcb7272dfc56f09e30ec3ad1f9f902bd25334624189bb3c179b9ce104bdbc437 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. FC Seoul end in a draw? | Event: kor-dae1-seo-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | col-aek1-shr-2025-11-06 | Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,684,277 | 78,684,277 |
54e7cff5fe262b4bf806a927d02411b22dd60779 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x84473eeb0c66f289304889a9ef395c6692b6bafb77f6e8bd984419269b1e68ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. FC Seoul end in a draw? | Event: kor-dae1-seo-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025? | Event: how-many-countries-will-israel-strike-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Auckl... | no | 1 | texas-house-special-election-winner | Will Isaiah Martin win TX-18 Special Election? | 78,720,649 | 78,720,649 |
1dcab9ae8d3e1b5df7a742f3cbc4b365b42924e2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9fa4e4d78dcdc6192190e45d3252f3dc7d20ac0ed4b6848f70bb9b804a5a1015 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025? | Event: how-many-countries-will-israel-strike-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-auc-ade-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel s... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 8? | 78,734,688 | 78,734,688 |
aa85a042d0461e2a926c5a65cc3428fb252343f6 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xe64ad8ff796049183f169b7ba6245e3aab375a211612a50d02d6e4cc0029372f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-auc-ade-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31? | Event: how-many-israeli-strikes-on-yemen-by-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aucklan... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 8? | 78,734,688 | 78,734,688 |
db93cd62b83ca679714724fe4d5199ff6fc7eac0 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x38446d4689ae1ca4e20fa050037ccca2cedf637a8533977563c8c82b613509b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31? | Event: how-many-israeli-strikes-on-yemen-by-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Auckland FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: aus-auc-ade-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gangwon FC win on 2025-11... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 8? | 78,737,352 | 78,737,352 |
13a2968dc9f91b060f8f942365137a40ad818fbe | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x09a965382d1ede9607fbc6463369eab0946dfaacb73dd70875983536372bbc19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Auckland FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: aus-auc-ade-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gangwon FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: kor-gwo-jeo-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Navan Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 5 billion... | no | 1 | jap-fct1-avi-2025-11-08 | Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2025-11-08? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
272d72ec56b9be627a63d3fb9043bd1674dd860f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x117a4fe01b03aa5fe2ee6ca11e09392f6165645e5dcb4cce5fd308150c936aad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gangwon FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: kor-gwo-jeo-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Navan Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 5 billion and 6 billion? | Event: navan-ipo-day-1-closing-market-cap | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nava... | no | 1 | mex-maz-nec-2025-11-07 | Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
9cdd132f13967b15c2b63ec70d08b69ac5507002 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x3054eb5dda1ee6d1785116c841a105dff612651b796fece4fc3a50730c3eba8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Navan Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 5 billion and 6 billion? | Event: navan-ipo-day-1-closing-market-cap | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Navan Inc not IPO by December 31, 2025? | Event: navan-ipo-day-1-closing-market-cap | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | kor-dae-gwa-2025-11-08 | Will Daegu FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
f64c318870864ea1b8910615a91623cf09841251 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x51b7f75b8fc2fb79bc23ce138873795926b7824c9fca13de5f2d7cf59e2792d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Navan Inc not IPO by December 31, 2025? | Event: navan-ipo-day-1-closing-market-cap | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs in the 2025 MLB Postseason? | Event: 2025-mlb-postseason-most-home-runs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | kor-dae-gwa-2025-11-08 | Will Daegu FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
e3473b1433a860b3179e735350b5511de8c3a636 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xa5ffc38c0a9a663ac76510aabdd1ffdc4dc2a38b071578b7a57f78f2611bfe13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs in the 2025 MLB Postseason? | Event: 2025-mlb-postseason-most-home-runs | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-electi... | no | 1 | albuquerque-mayoral-election | Will Daniel Chavez win the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
6b14afc3ef720126abfa1b9c9b688f0c6d6c7b60 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd0307ba1b02f5ac0e3f9c09a47471542520afea49079bb497dd896734c3313ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kayserispor vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? | Event: tur-kay-kas-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
e599d3f92bcec2b15510deb46d9d9fce7d4df46d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd89f946111ced8f2453c7181d12bc33dbf5b6ab230e9981fa18bd68d2c4357c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kayserispor vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? | Event: tur-kay-kas-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | jap-fct1-avi-2025-11-08 | Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
b1289616e05086cf004e569b276f936680b57a2a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xddbd207a9b380468d7c869e3de6958d781c60a48065a8766ae06b580a99743ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-mos... | yes | 1 | kor-jej-any-2025-11-08 | Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-08? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
b81a04a64ba9813290ef1bd7287b19d07e576e9a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xee83208c1e31995379b7c081e58d0220c8375d66d252569dba0f935e6d4a8579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | mex-maz-nec-2025-11-07 | Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-11-07? | 78,753,963 | 78,753,963 |
1a52fd68dbb82deee3d36d61720612cb04ff0ccd | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x062089f8f3f3fec0b812a190469e791fe0dbe5cb1f5a131aa3653b0dafb40448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Nantes vs. FC Metz end in a draw? | Event: fl1-nan-met-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-lil-ang... | no | 1 | 2025-fide-world-cup-third-place | Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov finish third in the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | 78,764,235 | 78,764,235 |
f5efa28604b087e1a266a6d57a8113a086c093b2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x57b92c34df08adeef98548a498705e9075334381009ff2b0441e00edc4df13e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Nantes vs. FC Metz end in a draw? | Event: fl1-nan-met-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-lil-ang-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Odense BK win on 2025-11-02? | Event: den-nor-ode-2025-11-0... | no | 1 | rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,235 | 78,764,235 |
7d5daec66f690ce7ed71a9dae2c7abe365b56793 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xbcce6c3c8c2dfed572f7c6b0170faf70ccf8209289bb9c6b7b251faded7459c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-lil-ang-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Odense BK win on 2025-11-02? | Event: den-nor-ode-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Nordsjælland vs. Odense BK end in a draw? | Event: den-nor-ode-... | no | 1 | rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Will FK Rubin Kazan win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,235 | 78,764,235 |
a0a5abdcd6fba0a17f41cb034455e6e68363aeb6 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xe33cec5eb8c35e3c241c34fee7a50b8e86b90827cea660acc59c4dbed10bd010 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Odense BK win on 2025-11-02? | Event: den-nor-ode-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Nordsjælland vs. Odense BK end in a draw? | Event: den-nor-ode-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tromsø IL vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF end in a draw? | Even... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8? | 78,764,235 | 78,764,235 |
cd9757e9978690ec9668aa14088ca605adda4122 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x251ec2448172951e0297f7b949e47b7ede86d768bc1a97df837ce90554892f4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Nordsjælland vs. Odense BK end in a draw? | Event: den-nor-ode-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tromsø IL vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF end in a draw? | Event: nor-tro-sar-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Heroic win the Intel Extreme Masters... | yes | 1 | elc-sto-cov-2025-11-08 | Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,714 | 78,764,714 |
c77681c78660288f4970ccd47221fc12f31f677e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4c415b58e14ba96f36a843133a0687a62192684a818e08600e805fa953a2c557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tromsø IL vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF end in a draw? | Event: nor-tro-sar-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Heroic win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament? | Event: cs2-intel-extreme-masters-chengdu-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Quinne... | yes | 1 | por-alv-rio-2025-11-08 | Will FC Alverca vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw? | 78,764,714 | 78,764,714 |
4086a006ea2ccad0757fdcdff194a61158dee13f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x7b7c380e599dd76e5e9dfa9cee086f6b84f6f1ae641afe1de85e7056eb876ea4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Heroic win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament? | Event: cs2-intel-extreme-masters-chengdu-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Quinnen Williams not be traded? | Event: where-will-quinnen-williams-be-traded | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Rubin Kazan end in a draw? | 78,764,714 | 78,764,714 |
5f45d469da13992b25bdb806501cad15cbd23c25 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xc9e4e30f59db7e34803b77edc98cbdb2a5bf4b630c95bb1b8afa78fdc1d098a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Quinnen Williams not be traded? | Event: where-will-quinnen-williams-be-traded | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | rus-soc-ros-2025-11-08 | Will FK Rostov win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,121 | 78,769,121 |
c603f34cc68225a107450940b2470cb3d518922f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1ff996e01f39414eec5abd1ffd94377fbdf8a58048a4b25847f1dd5670e0c167 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arnav win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? | Event: eth-perpswick-edgex-winner | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 1 | por-ton-gui-2025-11-08 | Will Vitória SC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,732 | 78,769,732 |
77136e9a92d92b696ccb47a49929330560e6c812 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x47bcd7e049ac93b5fe97eae42fd49fe5d8aadd1044786a809560a097f0ca7e40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arnav win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? | Event: eth-perpswick-edgex-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hans Moke Niemann finish third in the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | Event: 2025-fide-world-cup-third-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | por-ton-gui-2025-11-08 | Will CD Tondela win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,732 | 78,769,732 |
fcd6d9f8e82b40c6c26f0872b88a4e9ae9cb598d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xc4f20918efd613bad0914020edfe49233fbdc201f081cc53a1b451b69ba7f431 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hans Moke Niemann finish third in the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | Event: 2025-fide-world-cup-third-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. ACF ... | yes | 1 | ere-vol-nac-2025-11-08 | Will FC Volendam win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,732 | 78,769,732 |
a2c2c51326d088d7fe8a368ed3a3e0f5f3d1dd21 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1bfc5eb86ade981f6722e91bc07f6a0bd398e906cb2fe2047b3a51dd75d3fa9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? | Event: col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: co... | no | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Will Never Too Late (Elton John and Brandi Carlile) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,780,062 | 78,780,062 |
21934bab09edbcf1bb1f49fcff992401c35468af | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x259cdb9d7e7f2bc499c691caf7dd508ce5f4ded490f6dba72b5fb505c24a5578 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? | Event: col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-aek-abe-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06? | Event: c... | no | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Will All My Love (Coldplay) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,783,753 | 78,783,753 |
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