sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2f93b416a5e759278aea94c27f900d91d5249621 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xf900c6c5640b30c1d00e3327fb0acb86a51df59f252be9f09e8fdccb044d600e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-aek-abe-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-mal2-pao2-... | no | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Will Sorry I’m Here for Someone Else (Benson Boone) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,783,753 | 78,783,753 |
a3af8bec43e1693a0cc95724eed5c73dc4abae60 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xafb50cfdbd6e818fe8581bdd6aa43e84907ce58c4090124f2cbdc156166d758f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-mal2-pao2-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-... | no | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Will That's So True (Gracie Abrams) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,787,691 | 78,787,691 |
a02e1b82e98998b475249e22518cb26ba92bf2d1 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1138b3f295433fdd8b10f082d202e94f2080f54dbcf1731b1ff5e15bc29f461f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-mal2-pao2-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-aek1-shr-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isaiah Martin win TX-18 Special Election? | Even... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Will Never Too Late (Elton John and Brandi Carlile) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
00e32b87021f808f071f813b37c7e8310766c57a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x15a8a272cc532994500db9e4ec0ddd56f1a7e8a80d3cf637a33c3558204d73c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-11-06? | Event: col-aek1-shr-2025-11-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Isaiah Martin win TX-18 Special Election? | Event: texas-house-special-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in Londo... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Will Balloonerism (Mac Miller) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
f1bd965a4b5edd4f503809481522e78fbcdd32da | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x22acf38ba6c7482aa271ad9ccb0824c0f98ae33bd33dc344699c009fbc387f62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Isaiah Martin win TX-18 Special Election? | Event: texas-house-special-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Will Rachel Chinouriri win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
1df40486199d8d8b055201f4bfcc7243b7b9e26f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x24ff7de41fe1945321ae3adc4821542015b99f16d1253dae99a3adb1859ec73d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Will Lotus (Little Simz) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
eee8e486839eca11a45f80596e44bdb2c4705b4b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x28b13e1f0eb49616ef2e8017e3bc99e5ca49816cdccb85e354673bed88b5afd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Will Ordinary (Alex Warren) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
07615f1c5f0b41f14264e281e826349c849d5bb5 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x323570d7edde2a832d241fdff2341bd2afe3bd163ec578ccdc2fbe05000423e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-fct1-avi-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ma... | no | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Will MK.gee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
bf32f3ed3b1410254931e35aef2a266ee45609c4 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4962e1b11aac7e9da65852a8135d62c0e3cd3bcdf577bdfbcc449970fa9c56ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-fct1-avi-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: mex-maz-nec-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Daegu FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw? | Event: kor-dae-gwa-... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Will Lethal (Rico Nasty) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
75863febcf825886e87fc1b8f31e61553c648657 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4f234528c85001934c1b293bfb2b10c3595e4d6d50a142e5b6c44846f30edf48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: mex-maz-nec-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daegu FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw? | Event: kor-dae-gwa-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Daegu FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: kor-dae-gwa-2025-11... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Will That's So True (Gracie Abrams) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
7e5ad2ca9147a71706e1b020f3ffb621268b57f1 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x69542d0dd607120607096cd07536ee8632b0ddc2b437ad4ffe509d49edba6ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daegu FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw? | Event: kor-dae-gwa-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daegu FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: kor-dae-gwa-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Daniel Chavez win the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election? |... | no | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Will MJ Lenderman win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
9c676bdd797a0f05a0c13403fb644699d68f5855 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8bb2d4825c0ad0fc081fb569386bebd3042264d6c355e73d8ec852cd40fc7fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daegu FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: kor-dae-gwa-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daniel Chavez win the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election? | Event: albuquerque-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08?... | no | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Will beabadoobee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
1cf6c62f2e251527eb88a4a09be172af1804eb3a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9960c88b73460878b7606dd0664fb882f9de419beb8774e428b29d44335c0211 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Chavez win the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election? | Event: albuquerque-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Avispa Fuku... | no | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Will Sleep Token win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
bd6bd4560f423bf5f73fbf797a94b3dacba59e6c | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb60f76b35cd549260160ebfd2200f2ac81adcc901b935e0dba93fd9ae1f90a52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw? | Event: jap-fct1-avi-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-08? | Event: kor-... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Will Azizam (Ed Sheeran) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
cecf497eaa5a5280e71db31edc33d964d24e7eda | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb773929ff72826d3cbeb15aa85075ca5854366eba23c0b96eef39e203e0cabe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw? | Event: jap-fct1-avi-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-08? | Event: kor-jej-any-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-11-07? | Event: mex-maz-... | no | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Will Ravyn Lenae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
e356f769231b3e8e7bf6fd322a0425dac332363e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xbabf264bf844a133fe1949b42ddfdc5eb8fc93a48212d26ce48259b7afbd8ed0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-08? | Event: kor-jej-any-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-11-07? | Event: mex-maz-nec-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov finish third in the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | ... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Will Daisies (Justin Bieber) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
d212e6b95b4b374aa3ee72ddf6314b9fef0fb405 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd0afcd764d8dd0498510579896e156c7a0661db5560ee7378383e0e15faa7159 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-11-07? | Event: mex-maz-nec-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov finish third in the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | Event: 2025-fide-world-cup-third-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgoro... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Will Am I Okay? (Megan Moroney) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
7e6af29c58b145ec0c2ca0d9d27e94ac64715f99 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd8d70e04a002622046638aef0df19ef5633f129617f3f2ec347aead6d1d27571 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov finish third in the 2025 FIDE World Cup? | Event: 2025-fide-world-cup-third-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-11-08? | Event: rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Rubin K... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Will GOLLIWOG (Billy Woods) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
17a9bde33b20a9a02c94fd4f05c08a01f68ccded | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xebab3bd7a88803933cd00d8f0ac30bceea7ba86d744694633b76c2d570755ab9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-11-08? | Event: rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Rubin Kazan win on 2025-11-08? | Event: rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-... | no | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Will Music (Playboi Carti) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
91e5a612bc2a6735d35d13182149b1c91fab36e6 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xfd56904e09fbc39cb735c316a715815f1edaf0d5f453614e70930ad1415a64ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Rubin Kazan win on 2025-11-08? | Event: rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cov... | no | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Will The Subway (Chappell Roan) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
fddb8819664cafd2491fbeb538a2edd663ed0476 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xfe40e67a860e95d00a868ec06aa49ab4164f296ca6d232207b07ab7063b1e4d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: elc-sto-cov-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | ja2-ren-jub-2025-11-09 | Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2025-11-09? | 78,801,768 | 78,801,768 |
dd4fe495868ff769e3c29e26792097143ea6c10a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x195139b6042ffe592765136d2f6ea41551bd7a3bed8c7173176bbf8b996c1f66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: elc-sto-cov-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Alverca vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw? | Event: por-alv-rio-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Rubin Kazan end... | yes | 1 | nor-bra-kfu-2025-11-09 | Will SK Brann vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo end in a draw? | 78,809,550 | 78,809,550 |
1870d23943c7201e665da8fb17b3120c36af03ed | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x5b3b196564c4e1c3da1de413f8b903dbd54a6a2d512b962d86a8148f74a63900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Alverca vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw? | Event: por-alv-rio-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Rubin Kazan end in a draw? | Event: rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Rostov win on 2025-11... | no | 1 | nor-bra-kfu-2025-11-09 | Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,645 | 78,809,645 |
df8808b154e563a338f582c40b347cf30f4f1a25 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x6691852765eb1773a27554522555a52f8e7cff5877be58608e68a502e2c35f8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Rubin Kazan end in a draw? | Event: rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Rostov win on 2025-11-08? | Event: rus-soc-ros-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitória SC win on 2025-11-08? | Even... | no | 1 | rus-bal-kra-2025-11-09 | Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,190 | 78,810,190 |
79c3be1264e4c320db575505e5558860792f653b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb9de9381ecb022854ebd180bf81391d8e24c7e9ec7a0901c8cf608e251666fee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Rostov win on 2025-11-08? | Event: rus-soc-ros-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vitória SC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: por-ton-gui-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Tondela win on 2025-11-08? | Event: por-ton-gui-2025-11-08 | C... | no | 1 | rus-bal-kra-2025-11-09 | Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,253 | 78,810,253 |
8c8f2656e0b0703ad9006c000fe75a470302de48 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1984c70e65005db4f6013e8831450b6860b5aede2e2d72b9affdd4df4f64166f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vitória SC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: por-ton-gui-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Tondela win on 2025-11-08? | Event: por-ton-gui-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Volendam win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ere-vol-nac-2025-11-08 | ... | yes | 1 | nor-fkh-mol-2025-11-09 | Will Molde FK win on 2025-11-09? | 78,813,071 | 78,813,071 |
1e20208dcaca10d26acdd5d80cfba75e9e4c62af | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x5843766a2ae49b478cab34f4b0dd57e9e294de6440df32dc68efe56b9e57fe18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Tondela win on 2025-11-08? | Event: por-ton-gui-2025-11-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Volendam win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ere-vol-nac-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Never Too Late (Elton John and Brandi Carlile) win Record of the... | no | 1 | nor-fkh-mol-2025-11-09 | Will FK Haugesund vs. Molde FK end in a draw? | 78,813,071 | 78,813,071 |
860ae3e5dd9b210d5d16d93415f8df835c2e01f5 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x17530df0a20e649eea5a83aa2f5bb0ae0c1295de50e875cbe2528a7865f8e450 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Volendam win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ere-vol-nac-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Never Too Late (Elton John and Brandi Carlile) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? | 78,815,773 | 78,815,773 |
f6f8e26049533bd3d0a8996e54353ccbdd1c6558 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x51c370ce6e836859a849bff20599e72038e7b9a7a57cf698ebac3a8259a98a17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Never Too Late (Elton John and Brandi Carlile) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will All My Love (Coldplay) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: gra... | yes | 1 | bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Will EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? | 78,815,773 | 78,815,773 |
06a0e14d1cd2561ae934d83c9391222bc495c59e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x847c4dc3077a9d95d83f7bb55efa2bdecd2bfdf2246b4257b9ced72bd68fdaa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will All My Love (Coldplay) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sorry I’m Here for Someone Else (Benson Boone) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: gra... | no | 1 | bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,773 | 78,815,773 |
850c1585da4aa0393e51e81b60d0aa16db20ec5f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9c5642b8f41b7606c4c7cacb5e18cc955bef0cf3b036ff899a3a9b5393a47aba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sorry I’m Here for Someone Else (Benson Boone) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will That's So True (Gracie Abrams) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Ev... | no | 1 | bra-cor1-csc-2025-11-09 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | 78,815,773 | 78,815,773 |
3fc834c9a511f63c5ff429598abf873880224c52 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xba19de43d1d20257b281b1bebfd61bc6b706d01bf8c6a561b2c6cc9f53b26c85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will That's So True (Gracie Abrams) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Never Too Late (Elton John and Brandi Carlile) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Even... | no | 1 | bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,773 | 78,815,773 |
812d2f66347288eebd8252d95a093c6429407050 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xcffb4b9aa1e32a9157478a492318d3ac321b5167e4ff88085436402edd118737 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Never Too Late (Elton John and Brandi Carlile) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Balloonerism (Mac Miller) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-... | no | 1 | bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,773 | 78,815,773 |
f71ab6e7d013edd0d94f87f8fc5be4a449c7a32b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xdd5396b1dd91082451a3022bb809373df629641f53772fe4bc04c2e9cc7956af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Balloonerism (Mac Miller) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rachel Chinouriri win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice:... | no | 1 | bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,773 | 78,815,773 |
0fc18662e97aa9c58cffce17bf954c117e04166a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb2d49850b7edd4b7ec7d4f18acb959898e5ef2ebcb0e7d6049f0e7b4d1d42f21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rachel Chinouriri win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lotus (Little Simz) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | bra-cor1-csc-2025-11-09 | Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,774 | 78,815,774 |
3ca4cc5bd83e42147b89d3d55cead70292fe79c4 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x016888a3ef08c5f80d1e0d76e8a2913cfaab989d14bef4db4ef84b4ce98b3bb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lotus (Little Simz) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ordinary (Alex Warren) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice... | no | 1 | arg-tig-est-2025-11-09 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-09? | 78,824,679 | 78,824,679 |
d747667b867ed2cee3e800a032c7452fa25669a3 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x595308942b0cbc7e53055a6fad2d8172f6d1b4160b4d0644bb8c60567c2a2bab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ordinary (Alex Warren) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MK.gee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-09 | Will Racing Bulls achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | 78,824,679 | 78,824,679 |
25e1df07b8c0682558aa852d25985360a148c063 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xa0361a4648a61da2d52e949402cc2bd29b2e505b3eb0171136ba33460490b6d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MK.gee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lethal (Rico Nasty) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-09 | Will Sauber achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | 78,824,679 | 78,824,679 |
6a38dc551b6649b248c7cf5b10e77d0ec4a0db6a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd0f3a69e42db03e4a92ad66d5a4940a76cfef203d5372de3f0b26c282a60f3ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lethal (Rico Nasty) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will That's So True (Gracie Abrams) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner ... | no | 1 | f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-scores-1st-2025-11-09 | Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | 78,824,679 | 78,824,679 |
655973cee1ce6b44e415875dce7a9ce63d8cfe3b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xf21b0c83bb22b35c2f6a5e2ec473307d4b4ab74c6e432dec659100aceef89c7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will That's So True (Gracie Abrams) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MJ Lenderman win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Cho... | no | 1 | bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Will Mirassol FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? | 78,824,679 | 78,824,679 |
c590ca8ac06bff2a91d86952daa989502e4e0e78 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xff16f15698e3a114cf2d7339d1c7e8f247c4307649b4f980adb6233fd68e3b15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MJ Lenderman win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will beabadoobee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | pga-tour-world-wide-technology-championship-winner-462 | Will Ben Griffin win the World Wide Technology Championship? | 78,824,679 | 78,824,679 |
432bfa40fc63dba6abffdb43ac1e2c556b748d69 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xffff559c07ba935828591b4bfc9b271c1a423ea204e96d797af2ef0a8d48b90d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will beabadoobee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sleep Token win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-09 | Will Red Bull achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | 78,824,679 | 78,824,679 |
c61592373a38aeecd2fe11e945f86d2687486ffd | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xa39f4701c60df965eb85777114d21e714b80cfb63047a3cef54537986e829522 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sleep Token win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Azizam (Ed Sheeran) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | por-ben-cas-2025-11-09 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-09? | 78,824,680 | 78,824,680 |
eff37b6dfb509115f26b94049c74902774624441 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xeb9e9e74be69e9602da94e354bba2f0f1909a1df302d91ed4bcec6154de98f3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Azizam (Ed Sheeran) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ravyn Lenae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 1 | arg-cas-iac-2025-11-09 | Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-11-09? | 78,824,680 | 78,824,680 |
92ec00304cb05740864f9aa3915dbdfa78a96b25 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9f7f4ff81bec536273a0093ae263ae9d76c4a6b8a7890f72935d8a8b18d7c3aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ravyn Lenae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-new-artist-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daisies (Justin Bieber) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | 78,899,952 | 78,899,952 |
81572954013bf3f26e59606edf6d91e7bfed13ad | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x30fd463b6b21dd33680aee14089a5db97819aa9335fe10cd7b24f1eea62157e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daisies (Justin Bieber) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Am I Okay? (Megan Moroney) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-win... | yes | 1 | how-many-us-senators-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | 78,904,545 | 78,904,545 |
0bdaa3d17a1e00b94df7666cdbc02213b6bc9af8 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xf168cd30a7e01a343f79c7ef815a0424257b166522d94f9b30aa978b7cf60d7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Am I Okay? (Megan Moroney) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will GOLLIWOG (Billy Woods) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner |... | no | 1 | she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Will the match end in a draw? | 78,933,973 | 78,933,973 |
7e710d0d4487a380a7b70ab5091c1e3c17005d3a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x76e43e25cf62aa955fbc4c2b76c95059fd030f0ade9f862d85e04ec6bc362747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GOLLIWOG (Billy Woods) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Music (Playboi Carti) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Choice: ... | no | 0 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? | 78,941,617 | 78,941,617 |
c3e5d50ee4050d5364e8a86f511e8db89552b07e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xbd690ad6d2d08203a2b35f8fd8303afe42c6651ef5633f19da729c3f688f3145 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Music (Playboi Carti) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Subway (Chappell Roan) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | ... | yes | 1 | october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in October? | 78,946,027 | 78,946,027 |
e79216641e002c705ef151892273a7cea721dfcf | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x3071201ee55a926c34f489a66dcd5a9030e11a96bac97b0b622db28c21406239 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Subway (Chappell Roan) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ja2-ren-jub-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK... | no | 1 | october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in October? | 78,948,582 | 78,948,582 |
0d2e106b855e91536b2280d19d3da3e98b627245 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8652b7284db08b750db64107ef72b424e86857161699a5b13ca6b2c90ecf53b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ja2-ren-jub-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SK Brann vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo end in a draw? | Event: nor-bra-kfu-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-br... | no | 1 | october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in October? | 78,948,582 | 78,948,582 |
2113d0b6bace0f086f250b8d79b7a459ed421990 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x99dbd286c8c41882252819fc187dae6ddf29028307d4a7c305c75c9edb9d6648 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SK Brann vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo end in a draw? | Event: nor-bra-kfu-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-bra-kfu-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-11-09? | Event: rus-bal... | no | 1 | october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Will monthly inflation be between 1.5% and 1.7% in October? | 78,948,582 | 78,948,582 |
ab036835218cb2d88414a4846e431b5adb870209 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x077fc0c447abfc7e094713e86d62acc20480560a6eb60bfbfc86a1c5f00b9339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SK Brann win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-bra-kfu-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-11-09? | Event: rus-bal-kra-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2025-11-09? | Event: rus-bal-kra-202... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 12? | 78,969,506 | 78,969,506 |
6ac515a03fd03b919874c499851511d573d13e8f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x55a469ea12fc89bf6b12c38fc764e35c05b4b520485adf4c8716d6369b38ad8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-11-09? | Event: rus-bal-kra-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2025-11-09? | Event: rus-bal-kra-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Molde FK win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-fkh-mol-202... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | 78,970,134 | 78,970,134 |
7f0ce3e047182aa2fd468a8038af46bb27a780fb | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xf4f27cbe6e2d5563d1d34c380ce5bb1efc1555e771b51a8867930808f1aedd3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2025-11-09? | Event: rus-bal-kra-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Molde FK win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-fkh-mol-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Haugesund vs. Molde FK end in a draw? | Event: nor-f... | yes | 1 | fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Will Bangladesh vs. Afghanistan end in a draw? | 78,971,706 | 78,971,706 |
ebacbefdf2e9a4db0a89c0820065319c3da2de38 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4bcb2c1a03c2380c74d449aee1a09e46f5a96791cad0ce39147f3117451042a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Molde FK win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-fkh-mol-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Haugesund vs. Molde FK end in a draw? | Event: nor-fkh-mol-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? | Event: br... | no | 1 | fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Will Bangladesh win on 2025-11-13? | 78,974,478 | 78,974,478 |
7f5d05f790f2346880f6a24504eb2292a4c5b57e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb699b5016fe7a00c69f52dbdab62b9467b60ff60c4b9c96caec35c3f0b288908 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Haugesund vs. Molde FK end in a draw? | Event: nor-fkh-mol-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR end in a dra... | no | 1 | fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | 78,974,478 | 78,974,478 |
9ba7aaf30c5cab390b56a133408edf4bce674e6d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xefbfb13a7bb5b8c397e40e54bd9306e1499bbc062db3daf8cfea320d50b06cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? | Event: bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-09? | Event... | no | 1 | caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | 78,982,243 | 78,982,243 |
7fdd3b4834584608f87eefd809574d09ac0308c6 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9c89798aa3503c892742e76e1fc6d0c1f6ae64301c0fcb4ad6d96b7d787a550a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? | Event: bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? |... | yes | 1 | fif-irn-cvi-2025-11-13 | Will IR Iran vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | 78,988,976 | 78,988,976 |
63714043949efbd5005230e9c71afbd5da749ef8 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x473a003fca249e675ca77f8cffb5ee648b398eec5694517c7056f0da42d630bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cor1-csc-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-rivals-season-2-2025-winner | Will Spirit win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament? | 79,019,560 | 79,019,560 |
2d5b283cf01a477eaef643c3af3e38f69649f265 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x69c0bd6b72584ea2507e20e8b4f3d4e7cb327677b58ea7630fac168ce549ac28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | Event: bra-cor1-csc-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-09? | Event: br... | no | 1 | cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-13? | 79,019,560 | 79,019,560 |
506459d791cf94d913bddfd09075fb572de5ebc2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd18ffcc2181b27b6237b69cf23f4f1e139b3c844989c9d5591167c2c2100cce0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09... | yes | 1 | cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Will Trinidad and Tobago vs. Jamaica end in a draw? | 79,019,560 | 79,019,560 |
cd2965c103d955072e20a134e5129eb1912aff7b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xab2c5b334e213e18486293d60d07434650ae11ff02fcbc5b157613db2b76a735 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-vit-bot-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-cor1-csc-2025-11-09 |... | yes | 1 | cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Will Nicaragua win on 2025-11-13? | 79,019,561 | 79,019,561 |
861fd071f41c29b40f03b4e55c61b4f3d0e42dae | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x03992dff74d46ff6c9eea2db08d5ebd60daaf6db98ddea6863f4e4e7834fc3a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-cru-flu-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-cor1-csc-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-tig-est... | no | 1 | fif-col-nga-2025-11-18 | Will Colombia win on 2025-11-18? | 79,032,709 | 79,032,709 |
18abf2c77c8858c5bcbc5f4bd2142eaf346ce3f0 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xbbcc54806d7d8432c01bd09881e254c5e3ae979c269f8e49079d728b5b153859 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-cor1-csc-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-tig-est-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Racing Bulls achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 B... | yes | 1 | fif-col-nga-2025-11-18 | Will Colombia vs. Nigeria end in a draw? | 79,037,278 | 79,037,278 |
8a273bb0d69c216416bab74cb603d68bbe416255 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x39e23d16e43c5138002e34c650d0477e387f3517685c2188d4d957f9acda509f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-tig-est-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Bulls achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | cde-gou-cha-2025-11-16 | Will AS Gouzon vs. US Chauvigny end in a draw? | 79,078,364 | 79,078,364 |
6a2ccceb78b2b2332fde487dec8879df64d4d842 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x3d740fb108e5322c494855c008311d5c1c9276efeddc2b73a16d8aa4b66bd581 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Bulls achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sauber achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-p... | yes | 1 | fif-kuw-tan-2025-11-14 | Will Kuwait win on 2025-11-14? | 79,079,500 | 79,079,500 |
a43c0efa50dba8e2bb0586c33fc0901669b4008b | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xc07a0673cd26369ac2b1f05b6cb532b46d70bc1909e178b3575b3cf224d5f3ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sauber achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-... | no | 1 | cde-gou-cha-2025-11-16 | Will AS Gouzon win on 2025-11-16? | 79,079,539 | 79,079,539 |
1782d04e441eb4c1aba6d7c5f6d9a31761d2c63f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xfabe52e94958da81f666bbc92d7ed614f932d2caddb6af30fad694a4cac9a849 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-scores-1st-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mirassol FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? | Event: bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? | 79,079,726 | 79,079,726 |
53d745ef594c57fa031db36dc289c026c3ad9503 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8358cbc32ce53e02972a4d566edf9efc22c263513b41dbd269c396b5767cf595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mirassol FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? | Event: bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ben Griffin win the World Wide Technology Championship? | Event: pga-tour-world-wide-technology-championship-winner-462 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-15? | 79,079,741 | 79,079,741 |
f048d9e50de55868ad77765d9a5ced03a712a3af | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd7d8d5a65895b385f1b5773df5e5df4dd47f48e2e11cdad98380071732b7bc87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ben Griffin win the World Wide Technology Championship? | Event: pga-tour-world-wide-technology-championship-winner-462 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-fas... | yes | 1 | arg-ind-ros-2025-11-15 | Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-15? | 79,083,588 | 79,083,588 |
ebd30aee9fe3c3d02d5f02ebd80b74683f663c2c | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xfbf59f197fb42d8ef29f6daa7bb37785441eb227598b1c989fa15139a1f5815b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-brazilian-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-09? | Event: por-ben-cas-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | uniswap-cup | Will Bungee win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | 79,115,481 | 79,115,481 |
76008fd1774466207710683f1c4439097b3748ff | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4fd388d710075b7aee6b989d5f1cdd8c01a67506352f226068b867fe4960c440 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-09? | Event: por-ben-cas-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-cas-iac-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netfl... | no | 1 | arg-iac-tal-2025-11-16 | Will CA Talleres win on 2025-11-16? | 79,118,978 | 79,118,978 |
8a346eaf4126e5a9054ab72aedce8435009e4973 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x53b89a15dc5637eb96712ea385f89eb382f90c6f2a1e41bf80c8e2a6e889aab5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-cas-iac-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | arg-iac-tal-2025-11-16 | Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2025-11-16? | 79,118,978 | 79,118,978 |
8776bab5532434a9936807b15e0570c1033f2ecc | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x2bf1893e342b2f05992c3130c482ee96032d65160643a18229fe9c664d599c5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | uefa-wc-qualifying-group-d-winner | Will France win UEFA Group D for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 79,124,155 | 79,124,155 |
54d0bd75e5554a3b29c3888d2716da28216156bd | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x479ebcbb72b447da794b43503ce29f51cfff314f9400312deba158c987c2ffb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Event: how-many-us-senators-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match end in a draw? | Event: she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | uefa-wc-qualifying-group-i-winner | Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 79,124,155 | 79,124,155 |
1199cbf3416a84172dd054c9caf1915fccec29fc | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1cefe0558b6f4ff1c77069f1fe57634fa27a06e6e688270a4b191db390e5b00e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match end in a draw? | Event: she-tas-sou-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in October? | E... | no | 1 | arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Racing Club end in a draw? | 79,124,579 | 79,124,579 |
b75ca317725706462ba28f27c79e2271e05d677e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x29f877dd0e71a42a73effa3323c9802873e8d69856526beb1578a86421b2b2d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in October? | Event: october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflat... | yes | 1 | uefa-wc-qualifying-group-k-winner | Will England win UEFA Group K for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 79,124,579 | 79,124,579 |
0d1c4be283ba46624d4573d1ec7da5ccc9dc4e00 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x3fcdf8e41c7a3aa90ec724d21acfd7d2e25ab13d56ec5972038ac4921a4079f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in October? | Event: october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in October? | Event: october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | uefa-wc-qualifying-group-f-winner | Will Portugal win UEFA Group F for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 79,124,579 | 79,124,579 |
ae0b8e9efda465325dd56409fe2c1b3f1fcc3835 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x491fb9ae478fdf9faf8e88630292eccfd051da2458fd135ee3dbfe7c61275810 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in October? | Event: october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in October? | Event: october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | uefa-wc-qualifying-group-i-winner | Will Italy win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 79,124,579 | 79,124,579 |
bfdf1eeee69355143dbb907432840e534843975a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x7fcfd2ef90f60882a4393e2485104ce1dedf25dcd12931ec462468264bf41416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in October? | Event: october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 1.5% and 1.7% in October? | Event: october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-16? | 79,124,579 | 79,124,579 |
e0f0dc5e0777c26d4cbdb1107c429f67378c8550 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xec71f4b1d2aff606c3c5ebb7fef43e95320493acf1187c8b593a35d1ffc07864 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation be between 1.5% and 1.7% in October? | Event: october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-11-16? | 79,124,579 | 79,124,579 |
d4b2096b97da1b6aa00dc515f99fb181f0c67db3 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x55a34e35d50b06af6a31f92c72557df394d3495a05ef05280338437164121901 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ba... | yes | 1 | jos-antonio-kast-vote-share-in-chile-2025-presidential-first-round-547 | Will José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round? | 79,169,916 | 79,169,916 |
76c5bb52d93f0ddccbbcbde6010daada5ac6b60a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb089820cee1c1c63e4f78a4fa2a21c1adbde41a45f159ea814e5de5b3719e54e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bangladesh vs. Afghanistan end in a draw? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bangladesh win on 2... | yes | 1 | chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round | Will Jara win by 0-3%? | 79,169,916 | 79,169,916 |
1a631363f80262550f1d4e584019b6dea0b20380 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1dccca3d76410ce4aa43bca096d5cdc66b9dbb28274d6c6582c51984fe929250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bangladesh vs. Afghanistan end in a draw? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bangladesh win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2... | no | 1 | chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round | Will Jara win by 3-6%? | 79,170,904 | 79,170,904 |
b02edd7fc26eff50e0c08a937788105076be97ee | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x14fe17fb268e975465240dc184732cbfed84c7d55b4c034b888a4b29b7daf388 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bangladesh win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Choi... | yes | 1 | fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Will Comoros win on 2025-11-17? | 79,183,693 | 79,183,693 |
c504acccc87d878c27e951f9528acd606684c209 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xde50e18e9c9317c739341a9d368802abe853a74249787fecde1e7ee70225a0c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will IR Iran vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Event: fif-irn-cvi-2025-11-1... | no | 1 | fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Will Namibia win on 2025-11-17? | 79,183,693 | 79,183,693 |
33dbe3ebbfa42e22555ad56013a2bbb6b3c633bb | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xcb42ce799c32e8f0bbe7df6a20396a7ecb1ca494316c5df0027ab89d941e1ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will IR Iran vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Event: fif-irn-cvi-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | 79,196,116 | 79,196,116 |
aca97c6bf6f917b9c89728cae2895831bc6662fa | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x357a07f7072f872d9ed0cddc6a8d5fe4026b1cf265d3b14536913274c662c852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will IR Iran vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Event: fif-irn-cvi-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-rivals-season-2-2025-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jamaica wi... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-891 | Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025) | 79,201,723 | 79,201,723 |
75444eb325cb25ccf2a5f3af909b3f027e991524 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xc9dc44cf5b13d7503b0a954e7f9f4e8de50908e9050db32066a65ddf25c7484f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-rivals-season-2-2025-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago vs... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-first-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" first during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,201,723 | 79,201,723 |
39d957bc0b8b71bf5825c495509fd46fcb5aae18 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x48abb199908c5804db7bafc4fffab707ffc0adf39d746671eb49154145bd0792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago vs. Jamaica end in a draw? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicaragua win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-nca-hnd-2... | yes | 1 | how-many-house-members-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill-higher-brackets | Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill? | 79,203,116 | 79,203,116 |
59fdd074c436afe6406a0ce29f145aa96bdb4257 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd2449c9ac40fe0fafd90789151b8e68145b1c156da7f7aba8cde94e5143d8f2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago vs. Jamaica end in a draw? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicaragua win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Colombia win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-col-nga... | no | 0.361656 | how-much-will-each-piece-sell-for-at-sothebys-leonard-a-lauder-auction | Will Lot 3 Pablo Picasso’s “Trois personnages” sell for 700k or more? | 79,215,938 | 79,215,938 |
43620a6457abef68daa752da674567c314190340 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xa4d563f45bffc849d50830c3578407a9416da11d50f8ee7212c4bc68df1fc0ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicaragua win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Colombia win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-col-nga-2025-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Colombia vs. Nigeria end in a draw? | Event: fif-col-nga-2025-11-18 ... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 18 2025? | 79,217,957 | 79,217,957 |
01ebad5c6afff282c1eadf7ac7a7a8b6fa7ddded | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x2e956c939e0bee2fc22ccea7f3122635ef6a829747a9c16207fcdd594c694dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Colombia win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-col-nga-2025-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Colombia vs. Nigeria end in a draw? | Event: fif-col-nga-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Gouzon vs. US Chauvigny end in a draw? | Event: cde-gou-ch... | yes | 1 | when-will-trump-sign-the-epstein-disclosure-bill-into-law | Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? | 79,259,181 | 79,259,181 |
8449227731c893f9688f9c8ba7a5c646ab2c5a8e | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1c79659a36b6a3ddbcc4359225cf6855063281d92efe15c7f588e9e68646f788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Colombia vs. Nigeria end in a draw? | Event: fif-col-nga-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Gouzon vs. US Chauvigny end in a draw? | Event: cde-gou-cha-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kuwait win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-kuw-tan-... | no | 1 | chile-presidential-election | Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? | 79,271,452 | 79,271,452 |
0164c675a7f483860b672b0d3ffeb80100a7d7a9 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x512c860d7dddd7e04b91e9211db6046257036036dd5e13e72737da8f6d2c98ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Gouzon vs. US Chauvigny end in a draw? | Event: cde-gou-cha-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kuwait win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-kuw-tan-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Gouzon win on 2025-11-16? | Event: cde-gou-cha-2025-11... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-synthetix-trading-competition | Will gmoney win the Synthetix trading competition? | 79,312,800 | 79,312,800 |
2f3c03cc239ae344fb69d387f7ffff303dcc6ad8 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x5a47036dd8e63914b6893bbdcbbfe8c4a7b79dd2757ca4cef68d2337efed33ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kuwait win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-kuw-tan-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Gouzon win on 2025-11-16? | Event: cde-gou-cha-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? | Event: arg... | no | 1 | who-will-win-the-synthetix-trading-competition | Will Farokh win the Synthetix trading competition? | 79,312,800 | 79,312,800 |
c8ba82d03510ca9218f4d4622ae77fe40c8beade | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4a1d42ea64e92165f921848d948eef45c36106fbe0869730a5ad4a7e4ea5884c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Gouzon win on 2025-11-16? | Event: cde-gou-cha-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? | Event: arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-15? | Event:... | no | 1 | beach-volleyball-worlds-2025-womens-winner | Will Isabel Paul & Julia Kunst win the 2025 Beach Volleyball World Championships (Women’s Tournament)? | 79,319,590 | 79,319,590 |
6dd9966f8e0358fbcf57ad3cfd2950a46ee1ab51 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x800f6d088ea73942dbb3f240582358947cca5d4330f0563b083c21e2d053596e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? | Event: arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-15? |... | no | 1 | beach-volleyball-worlds-2025-womens-winner | Will Marta Menegatti Gottardi & Reka Orsi Toth win the 2025 Beach Volleyball World Championships (Women’s Tournament)? | 79,319,590 | 79,319,590 |
53522523f14f39af6232880d8c663df054b1a173 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xdf7ee68d50d17a7c34638389543a6439a91034ef6a367a2b0c917733a5bbe2ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-ind-ros-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bungee win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Event: uniswap-cup | Choice:... | no | 1 | beach-volleyball-worlds-2025-womens-winner | Will Sarah Schulz Bock & Chenoa Lippmann win the 2025 Beach Volleyball World Championships (Women’s Tournament)? | 79,319,590 | 79,319,590 |
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