sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9586c7357cf58956412f2c6dc234b79994ca97b0 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xe428187a658427119e538b1fdd296d915ed72d01202b3b4ccc6fa1c95f6a1700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-ind-ros-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bungee win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Event: uniswap-cup | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Talleres win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-iac-tal-2025-11-16 | Choice... | no | 1 | beach-volleyball-worlds-2025-womens-winner | Will Katja Stam & Raïsa Schoon win the 2025 Beach Volleyball World Championships (Women’s Tournament)? | 79,319,590 | 79,319,590 |
d0c24e9f3d3fcec747b1d78fcf197986348b9d9c | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xef999253fcf715b99021f2d82a97153aed217e422883583aee447182286b5bb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bungee win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Event: uniswap-cup | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Talleres win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-iac-tal-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-iac-tal-2025-11-16 | Cho... | no | 1 | beach-volleyball-worlds-2025-womens-winner | Will Riley Wagoner Shaw & Katie Cheng win the 2025 Beach Volleyball World Championships (Women’s Tournament)? | 79,319,590 | 79,319,590 |
4bb01cfea53cab90a793c40245de5af41e0fb9f7 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb4da5be59c4528f4eeee23080647735de16cae7cc62f7cdd7db66b48d6d4349c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Talleres win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-iac-tal-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-iac-tal-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win UEFA Group D for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Even... | no | 1 | rus-akr-soc-2025-11-21 | Will FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Sochi end in a draw? | 79,326,495 | 79,326,495 |
417699b7fad89858b8bca481e3eae315dba4ac78 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x0d1e037b01d0d049c4686dc5274221dc4f1aea8f30e8d71c5020cb4b43b1f4bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-iac-tal-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win UEFA Group D for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-d-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Norway win UEFA Group I f... | yes | 1 | october-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October? | 79,349,432 | 79,349,432 |
b3042ad785224b4c5630b108fd0c0623d0715ae0 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x314a0e65fad886a5e01de5db17d76f7f4d831b2e93c5c3876945492f12df6575 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win UEFA Group D for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-d-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-i-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA N... | no | 1 | october-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October? | 79,354,483 | 79,354,483 |
781970b1229c121eec4307ec561ab66e04b147c4 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x364d1f8c5541d35554c64ae986007a11ec83d66a2268563c61a2315d73ee3fa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-i-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Racing Club end in a draw? | Event: arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win U... | no | 1 | october-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in October? | 79,354,483 | 79,354,483 |
51f3037acd5eb14e735f3d4c9cc0791488d894f4 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8b7599d1bd4ffef11746907dbfe956a277c101489da806be25812efe22d1c359 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Racing Club end in a draw? | Event: arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win UEFA Group K for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-k-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win... | no | 1 | october-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October? | 79,354,483 | 79,354,483 |
0a28d70e3601a170ee0ceabc1f4a68a6d6493c0f | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xafa7446150c4b13211f8fdc52d75cf61095293e4f6ad8442c7a972efcc5b41ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win UEFA Group K for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-k-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win UEFA Group F for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-f-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will I... | yes | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,400,463 | 79,400,463 |
61025745523f4405ce437a0a3c73389814704a5a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x01e83611e84e9d51926d613ca0591495c32d884dfd0adddc339b55175d4c531c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win UEFA Group F for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-f-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-i-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Raci... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion-4th-place | Will Charles Leclerc finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? | 79,400,853 | 79,400,853 |
9852fe926bf25f254e6357ea4014cec55e86b1a1 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4545ed5051d45067409c1c805c406d4469fc3826cf7f8294a18f3b24a45b6e14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Event: uefa-wc-qualifying-group-i-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-11... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion-5th-place | Will Lewis Hamilton finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? | 79,400,853 | 79,400,853 |
abb15b36419085ff30e5a2cba6025bf3a3bc5135 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x9406cb28fab16d0e725ca9c94cda71c9ccef6073d53b7376ad175ad59f293fca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in ... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion-3rd-place | Will George Russell finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? | 79,400,853 | 79,400,853 |
3f951a81fdc3c868311138b897d2975b6fb35f58 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xd95dc1383a9e42a1b4407c4d289d2f4f93b99a1519109c866e819976d3475f25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-11-16? | Event: arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round? | Event: jos-antonio-kast-vote-share-in-chile-2025-presidential-first-round-547 | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-constructor-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Williams achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,401,086 | 79,401,086 |
c3dc15a4c6082544628faed4a6b7886a78073a4d | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x06eae144cf29264bb9408256b09ef6eeeb3bca85d467a79c80a731b5eb13b9c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round? | Event: jos-antonio-kast-vote-share-in-chile-2025-presidential-first-round-547 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jara win by 0-3%? | Event: chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round | ... | yes | 1 | rus-din-mak-2025-11-23 | Will FK Dinamo Moskva win on 2025-11-23? | 79,417,525 | 79,417,525 |
895d28a8879be97ace723d028d0dea3fc71a0d19 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x2708cbcb7ad265632ba575004d3668b775a450f7db9e13d4898b54802adbe9dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jara win by 0-3%? | Event: chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jara win by 3-6%? | Event: chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Comoros win on 2025... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-377 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | 79,417,525 | 79,417,525 |
ee6dd301f5eec3b149efa8c5a29b4a3afbbc4a08 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x28968b80c0fe197fb05188b21b9e77ad30090077b8d961574051bfabbcf70106 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jara win by 3-6%? | Event: chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Comoros win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Namibia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-com-n... | no | 1 | bun-lei-wer-2025-11-23 | Will RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw? | 79,417,525 | 79,417,525 |
d2c384cb22719339c1ef211808253684d77959c9 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x2af0936665bb52dfe1f1bc32a224487e7ea86c6f804794bcdf14428927d5aa4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Comoros win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Namibia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemi... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-377 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | 79,417,525 | 79,417,525 |
4551815456b06799952b2114afd5c34552ae88c2 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x8cd20db28bf3413a78baf71bc47f403cf502ed5f4ed606a8c9a86ba8cc29c6ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Namibia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top glob... | no | 1 | tur-ala-kas-2025-11-23 | Will Alanyaspor win on 2025-11-23? | 79,417,525 | 79,417,525 |
605a4eb9ac17611189226756fb6f8cdc2dce80b8 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xb20b4f27f7f875117be50f00aa3b7778a51354a6e26db6e27260d30987b6947b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-89... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-377 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | 79,417,525 | 79,417,525 |
be49822635307abe4c07cac59b5528e3fdbf4fee | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0xea0aa58b264d7292da2ffd5209138bbe342586f04ef59448a9e19f0025e5379c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-891 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" first during Saudi PM events on November 18? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | elc-swe-she-2025-11-23 | Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-11-23? | 79,417,525 | 79,417,525 |
88a20544563745e5a886c6a246f2f529f4c93031 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x00cf5120d8f93f52d56bff576946af9933dc5d4dadeaf33e4adfd2635ac2546b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" first during Saudi PM events on November 18? | Event: what-will-trump-say-first-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill? | Event: h... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-fiction | Will Life, and Death, and Giants (Ron Rindo) win Readers' Favorite Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
a651ff2ad5092b90dc5e2f98de497a3f3b2e22b7 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x0dddf5c4eeecc10ddc9ba17d3e57988f0dc1453fc9bda544b0724296686602a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill? | Event: how-many-house-members-vote-yea-on-an-epstein-disclosure-bill-higher-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lot 3 Pablo Picasso’s “Trois personnages” sell for 700k or more? | Event... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-science-fiction | Will Dissolution (Nicholas Binge) win Readers' Favorite Science Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
ad5fd0b84e35a775203b6e5acbe08c5213492e69 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1230abfd1941eb3b7c502b9a92f3eff761b5b90c841ee3843e78308fbdee7303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lot 3 Pablo Picasso’s “Trois personnages” sell for 700k or more? | Event: how-much-will-each-piece-sell-for-at-sothebys-leonard-a-lauder-auction | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3616557734204793
2. Question: Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on Novemb... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-historical-fiction | Will The Stolen Life of Colette Marceau (Kristin Harmel) win Readers’ Favorite Historical Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
fc114d6755eb1c20fc86a6cc0ceadee4e3823e33 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x150418ef88b97999fd5228971c69db74ff6368d3afac72de44f141194371ca8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 18 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? | Event:... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-fiction | Will What We Can Know (Ian McEwan) win Readers' Favorite Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
9c0cc7ab0311c3831997aaeada96327bd5d663cf | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1d91e80fd057a9fb8c691c685aca7c9c0f304857ef26a208e6d36c1e20a21445 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? | Event: when-will-trump-sign-the-epstein-disclosure-bill-into-law | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? | Event: chile-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-fiction | Will Heart the Lover (Lily King) win Readers' Favorite Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
cbf354580075f60c5b0a97a479daf153d75356a5 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x1edd421d25cbaa8d2ff2ffbafaf23c5574024d054e514d02ddc47a97a313eeae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? | Event: chile-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will gmoney win the Synthetix trading competition? | Event: who-will-win-the-synthetix-trading-competition | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-fiction | Will The Girls Who Grew Big (Leila Mottley) win Readers' Favorite Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
05b9c7f0c15d0d6734fd9e28c61e11e0b6517e82 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x385341f645ee70be5a77878d3fd2c009eaceec25ec2bc4af655dd8f56612837c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will gmoney win the Synthetix trading competition? | Event: who-will-win-the-synthetix-trading-competition | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Farokh win the Synthetix trading competition? | Event: who-will-win-the-synthetix-trading-competition | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-historical-fiction | Will The Lost Story of Eva Fuentes (Chanel Cleeton) win Readers’ Favorite Historical Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
934234e85bdf4d1264d147e549cf72e1151f3758 | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x4417400ea0753c12eb9303695618b494744c3f1c02f8a608130eb9239b853fdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Farokh win the Synthetix trading competition? | Event: who-will-win-the-synthetix-trading-competition | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Isabel Paul & Julia Kunst win the 2025 Beach Volleyball World Championships (Women’s Tournament)? | Event: beach-volleyball-worlds-2025-w... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-science-fiction | Will The Memory Collectors (Dete Meserve) win Readers' Favorite Science Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
4292a32071859a0cbd7e5e74c6b5ff1bc46d0b7a | 0x28b255ed9747765be4f44ce484532d4b6bdfa74f | 0x593b1e39fbfd444d9e8850082ae4c2fffd55087de316a3567cb36db181d9ffc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Isabel Paul & Julia Kunst win the 2025 Beach Volleyball World Championships (Women’s Tournament)? | Event: beach-volleyball-worlds-2025-womens-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marta Menegatti Gottardi & Reka Orsi Toth win the 2025 Beach Volleyball World Championshi... | no | 1 | goodreads-choice-awards-readers-favorite-young-adult-fiction | Will A First Time for Everything (K.L. Walther) win Readers’ Favorite Young Adult Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | 79,472,014 | 79,472,014 |
96203eaa630c59a7164d806e510475366550d433 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xc6211c399fac4aeb30a32643742d1b83642eb10376450cf6e2deac2f711c5f71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025?
Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,847,424 | 73,848,235 |
21d4f551bed22b537ce1eb62af9b6b566746abd4 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x962157bd01255975d2eca2a9d90826b45777a7517af528baf0d6a8393905c5f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:... | yes | 1 | abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | 73,848,401 | 73,848,401 |
da5d4694a6d3ddf0ae078fa1360ff480b3d7f81f | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xeffd463bed06b25c8b65e5afa3301253b7aa44f0194a78323382cabb13949a47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi G... | yes | 1 | abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | 73,849,169 | 73,849,169 |
1d8e263900dfa42e4f2713e02a90f9cb59244197 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xc8bac6558ade59b1cfb36962b47eed4e724ea46899c480c045defe750722f746 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | 73,849,192 | 73,849,192 |
14163ddc29e7476cca6423681255c1e79630eafe | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x26020883e34bf8763904e23469d76153408cdd232621325a7236c5a59877a0ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | 73,849,201 | 73,849,201 |
c3e715200b440a0f57d32078c2783ec8115bfb05 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x39a0dc60f841d2a2970be7d090593386da5ddc26bcc151a1e4b56540bb59901e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,849,219 | 73,849,219 |
4aa83c6d11949da20ee2d58d277e53bc972340f4 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x0b7c231b580d017bfb54a65ba623c666022502888fe4922911af756b019094eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | 73,849,249 | 73,849,249 |
f53d38f1101b088f57228c8784f560f28ea2adf4 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x3bfb178371b8647270b254408be841e1633b3168cce0018b00b54e9b673c9a2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Will another driver win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | 73,849,256 | 73,849,256 |
999575420dce017176dfbac700c0307f98895f78 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x8c104fa7d363fcee6f3eb016ba1842905f0bdbeded6d790390bf4307bf4fb142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | 73,992,567 | 73,992,567 |
433500ee610d36a5e29f3cf43036356d76b0cad3 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xbaf05ede01e068f0a53a3a56180f39fff14a1f0480ad2f763acc9a1f5ba1f85a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | imo-2025-winner-country | Will United States win the 2025 International Math Olympiad? | 74,230,472 | 74,230,472 |
806f7e321fe00ee666a85c953576ce21935b051a | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x862776f446ad0832e6faaeb0c455c16b9c992d0af716d1b329201c787ddf2936 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | eddington-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-6.5m? | 74,265,601 | 74,265,601 |
5170f25976b965db02c7685eb4dcb77436ababe3 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x53c028ac1299d01a120c1cbe78c35c104cb624bbba8a7fccda4d4e2fffe2ccdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-lafc-vs-portland | MLS: Will LAFC beat Portland? | 74,463,663 | 74,463,663 |
8cdf078609929296b3ad74b045563f481fe4dba9 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x5496f8b544c689696dfeb5e827a9a75d3a2f4d10f24e7a0f52c7a98c78ee3f09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-fc-dallas-vs-new-york-city | MLS: Will FC Dallas beat New York City FC? | 74,466,033 | 74,466,033 |
15d849601798d1c35e67d8858a3c2ee559b26b5c | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x45278974e16b3d2b2d8950f54b0fdc8df5c7caaad8d5de8663ce83402859495a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | 74,502,315 | 74,502,315 |
e0b4ca1ec8098b5602df25edf49a65dbc98462bf | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x3f20af336afe23ad65a5ee2559c7f98aeb1b8431f8f29bda80802360cc763c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? | 74,502,913 | 74,502,913 |
5f1ef3d683c12ca7947ac12658713e1812cfdb73 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x3d3f13d64e72d30b3bd26ef16cec0becc9690a79211648813090879181766f65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-july-453 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July? | 74,673,168 | 74,673,168 |
ecc9f1406143254c8fd8077a7c855e21861d2c41 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x350e242470fcba553bd6ca9563533a76d239a6b404c991599301f433e2ed8d08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | july-unemployment-rate | Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | 74,673,174 | 74,673,174 |
033cfc38d75cc973fa04d0248dc6742c05dad05f | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x7e37a68cfdbb0e0268a37513b3f3c5ca118ab7fbf9895a5deddac55873ae3993 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | the-bad-guys-2-opening-weekend-box-office-685 | Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m? | 74,818,190 | 74,818,190 |
e91c9fb64c7e35ecdf4b0bd70869dd1f74039ab7 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xd3fb6d5a8a798f9abab8026cb40bc9c2229f74cf79357c835f3ab7387278e06e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | 74,966,522 | 74,966,522 |
17fd9efc05246fd9f846dc4a8e4549da39198800 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x5a3b9a804bc0c9a45fc09ec61e0574ca57b34dae49150aaa485dea340ba746b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? | 74,966,527 | 74,966,527 |
435f48d0af7781ce96b4048c3b16ffd6c3dd89a7 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x34e28b723891da929a689d1d9014a8163f85cf49d13f8816ac7754af4bfc5b42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | july-inflation-annual-462 | Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July? | 75,119,150 | 75,119,150 |
1de360dc7380de7a848db8104455c960cdac2760 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xcdce7670da1a50eca560a82c06e78ba1d1a9c528f51a0c1b6272d5e2a9bfea7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90 or higher? | 75,244,375 | 75,244,375 |
9d2fe4b05bb9dc3a7f6f8309b9b5e7e21e4e69d4 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x69d4c886d88c224bed895bcd78cede2b4de8e57c0afe5b0e0c47eec16613edd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 75,441,184 | 75,441,184 |
d912ac07191a762167fa1227928dbd813308d8ee | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x7896bb44b6a9b89ff3c5c1cecef03eb81b2ccf37e00f1c01be04c98488493fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Will PF win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | 76,348,904 | 76,348,904 |
7710a063605d59d9fcd632e96d1a826d4b3f1c50 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x83d4c41e3e1f630e916a9108aebbc10d4b05d31f2f0333e5aa0cc0611389920e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? | 76,348,907 | 76,348,907 |
ed69b9d109b8a52a5324addd13461b7cb1e35c84 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xe0c6d489a1b98413168f333afe14a0d278f0114ef829f9e36fd8db3670d5568b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | 76,348,909 | 76,348,909 |
44d0dfb6757d850e99657589a5771c3aeb4b3fea | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xe8d095422da9f6c3ceed727a4b6251177f618b002d2a698bfccb48716c7aa469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,807,717 | 76,807,717 |
a898f16b9ffc30c5012b0fa3c09a4dd18d086373 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 76,807,718 | 76,807,718 |
df7bb6d51f6e4b03aeca40e1c02d4c1357ab0d8b | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x8b1cafab17aaa138174c8096872df64552a204885f61cc5c626f6fac9e4e0025 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | czech-republic-parliamentary-election-winner | Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | 77,298,533 | 77,298,533 |
ae17974f8ec573684b77ede1823ec440d45157f5 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x842e835f4d2061b9a6fd0ac84665b7b69e9ad06e6316b172f17f42d2ceeee9eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | yes | 1 | czech-republic-parliamentary-election-winner | Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | 77,298,535 | 77,298,535 |
0109868802e7d3b3b5859e2ec89e94a494efe8b3 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xe59adbed2626288ba876a53a22fdf96aa0764c024a4c61b4785c232ff04bb5a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | ... | no | 1 | czech-republic-parliamentary-election-winner | Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | 77,298,539 | 77,298,539 |
6b8c02fb3eba6252715287665278cfa55812b04e | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xa9b4d63db8031fbc369d863e1e9dea77296ab49ddade6793f1938fe0c76e7d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the Abu D... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | 77,720,712 | 77,720,712 |
e6b628f7e399f083318e01236485c96b5ccedcbb | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Abu ... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,393,767 | 78,393,767 |
66fa7e0c22b33e2945a2476bdbe1d7544e312915 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x95fc439152db2146c17f44a752749e1d2963d7cfe9ab66d727d44717f7ada31e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lewis Hamilton win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win Wimb... | yes | 1 | ucl-oly-psv-2025-11-04 | Will PSV win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,112 | 78,609,112 |
551793d06c0c870241021eeb43936861b02292ae | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xa07147f49bc8266b37bafb4c9d1ee96b759c24ebb9736b8d2371768bf49fbdf4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George Russell win the Abu Dhabi Gran... | yes | 1 | ucl-oly-psv-2025-11-04 | Will Olympiakós SFP vs. PSV end in a draw? | 78,609,114 | 78,609,114 |
5a939203e5ffd874438b50e3e36cc46468c9694b | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xa1319ba34a0c998cb06ba22480391589dafdc8a09758039c6156fca37c972460 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Russell win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another driver win the Abu Dhabi Gra... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-rma-2025-11-04 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,117 | 78,609,117 |
a36ac64d9393a353575f7a77bbf9f93a9e7b7dbd | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xd4f4f375920e1c838df4d7bec36a907a691ee494d12af7dbbfde53e146293235 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Russell win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another driver win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weeke... | yes | 1 | ucl-bog-asm-2025-11-04 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? | 78,609,119 | 78,609,119 |
eebb931611d487b5d8331029aa6a229e0e8f63e5 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x9ef06b1effa60ac7839dc3bace3a89ddace82ec126a3289ba0e071ca142bb8c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another driver win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Event: abu-dhabi-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Unit... | yes | 1 | ucl-juv-spo-2025-11-04 | Will Juventus FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | 78,609,122 | 78,609,122 |
b9315edcf54196dd621ea024343e7fc387675d0c | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x3eb22a031e853ce7d3490c4857db026b78a7f968032d8de6effd9d9f1ade6897 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will United States win the 2025 International Math Olympiad? | Event: imo-2025-winner-country | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,127 | 78,609,127 |
2ebb05560833f52056facf14be79e8ec69219bc7 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x66c3206394de07729df48e3d536aad2d3a69f583d91399ad06881e03f85fb545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will United States win the 2025 International Math Olympiad? | Event: imo-2025-winner-country | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-6.5m? | Event: eddington-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-bay-2025-11-04 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,133 | 78,609,133 |
327ebd006213ae6c968406a47c0b3ab97502f264 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xb5a250a6c08d66ff71508c9981322c0a694ddc26e6ee416a1d62bd835e2c6f24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-6.5m? | Event: eddington-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will LAFC beat Portland? | Event: mls-soccer-lafc-vs-portland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will FC Dallas beat New... | yes | 1 | ucl-tot-kob-2025-11-04 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. FC København end in a draw? | 78,609,136 | 78,609,136 |
25762dcdf4e81f046ad0cd73ff90585ee4f3531b | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xf3a7eabbfc1d68e4659f8539a17e6259802f853c3b2211192c8c4dc5d152732d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will LAFC beat Portland? | Event: mls-soccer-lafc-vs-portland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will FC Dallas beat New York City FC? | Event: mls-soccer-fc-dallas-vs-new-york-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? | 78,646,230 | 79,114,179 |
93efa02f89bc862171e4235419775d76e6a4cf66 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x572037f41703ebccec56a87194423171f132f3664c389232585afde186c2c0bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will FC Dallas beat New York City FC? | Event: mls-soccer-fc-dallas-vs-new-york-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win the U... | yes | 1 | ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? | 78,646,239 | 78,646,239 |
0e8ed14f97beb3e8b94be8fc49fbf589f6aaa002 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x6170d1e2b23483654cbbb7485d5c6f24bd8f55fc258a2c2bb0e343e1d035d717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-belgian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Event: uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US add between 50k and 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? | 78,646,241 | 79,000,415 |
eeee010a487276449f5d1b47d59e2b1e489d652a | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xd441bd6fbe29196d13db20819e0c5d62e05a82620e58e080c835e221fdb8e249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Event: uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-july-453 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the July 2025 unemployment ra... | no | 1 | ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | 78,646,243 | 78,646,243 |
bb8afb2c3022b1108a5ac881fdc98a16f12dfdbd | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xe7b7175a155fa5441088b9b31c4bf113fc2ee194aaad3b1f2293ad8a7cd2d9ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-july-453 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Event: july-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weeke... | yes | 1 | ucl-olm-ata-2025-11-05 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? | 78,646,245 | 78,646,245 |
3d633b604d7996eae374c9d4cf843f7134c1e4b6 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xa4742b0ca4d353f98bbc06ac1f9716121011315915073dbcc455f106f5b87798 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Event: july-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m? | Event: the-bad-guys-2-opening-weekend-box-office-685 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? | 78,646,247 | 79,000,417 |
ff93b348bae851267aab8c947cda5864a046a99d | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xd84c31f4db1074287919c383d9cc526b19bc0274276af7bb1a5a427c6a061aa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m? | Event: the-bad-guys-2-opening-weekend-box-office-685 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | C... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | 78,646,249 | 78,646,249 |
096554076bc7f046eca4f9830e864b318aa8ff0a | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x446b1f871be2d610eb0a4918dde2704690d0492a9f2e22947df22ce7ed6d500b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | october-inflation-argentina-monthly | Will monthly inflation be lower than 1.5% in October? | 78,955,306 | 79,000,405 |
a4b7584146b3dc538488bc2d29325da64bc03f16 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xc31015e07bbd99c6657879be3d9d1540ad4a8dceb706135515ac6cea0c63af4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July? | Event: july-inflation-annual-462 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: "Alien: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-ath-2025-11-05 | Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-05? | 79,000,410 | 79,000,410 |
d2014af9145cab996f69477928cce31abce17b61 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xe9ec783bae086b10bb916e27b9fd8004e2465a4bb152388594359e9aea0bd887 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July? | Event: july-inflation-annual-462 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90 or higher? | Event: alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina... | yes | 1 | which-candidates-advance-to-2025-chilean-presidential-runoff | Will José Antonio Kast and Evelyn Matthei advance to the runoff? | 79,146,056 | 79,146,056 |
b76260ce8afe6d1ab4d064b2594dbb3522c095c5 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x7ab8f18e4d76f2c03f927571c65b3e17a4a9bc9ab203cab0949385c210b047f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: "Alien: Earth" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90 or higher? | Event: alien-earth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election-1st-ro... | no | 1 | chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round | Will Jara win by 6-9%? | 79,185,292 | 79,185,292 |
16c446c604c7fd4ad387a01253fd08b8b41abb53 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xc036ea908c75236543c8276a69a4914072ca0aaa83f2942f2be4260b872aff6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PF win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | Event: norw... | no | 1 | chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-first-round | Will Jara win by 9-12%? | 79,185,295 | 79,185,295 |
db54e2fd82646dd950abff1e847cb332a1f070fb | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0xa51c63586746e56232cad39561b1b088aa1ddda75e6218622e9fc7a62b5da291 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PF win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | Event: norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-14-november-21 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | 79,305,917 | 79,305,917 |
8dc2ea69e9fcd4a64536f593f71862eafe964764 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x5109c177b7d2674f6b173f7f4472037392c71cb9006c1634c44dba906849a9e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bp... | yes | 1 | 1-song-on-spotify-this-week-november-21 | Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | 79,322,827 | 79,322,827 |
5b8f33965791d05a9a647e1bb14c2900aa5e1813 | 0x28cd8f822e6de0a5e3682a03a5882a7bbb60d99a | 0x42535ddd4c6b467d0d910061b66ffcdb28877899e92f293638f0c89eb47373ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No change in Fed... | yes | 1 | top-performing-magnificent-7-company-week-of-november-17 | Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 17? | 79,346,116 | 79,346,116 |
2cdea82e6be1c81adc781402eb0f47bd8852c87a | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x1d405d21c3d391b787f0f8aa6a1c562b202a57c036d5e4c8855252cf1aca5161 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16?
Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | 76,605,247 | 76,605,247 |
ebdb22039a7f96b50315677abcea0d331bd81a37 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x4a76201df2897be2ae1a8ab7005d073d4bf8c02192a4abf912c29bfdef0c0335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17?
Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice":... | no | 1 | ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | 76,605,247 | 76,605,247 |
9694f50f346ee4e42b6f2c1e9a30617db98959bf | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?
Event: ucl-rm... | no | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | 76,605,247 | 76,605,247 |
32b6b12ad6bbdf401f2d0ee51c0cd8a1ee72340e | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xa80ae546771dafdab589d9808486f8e76fe001e22ea7476d3bf32a9e484480d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-ben-kar-2025-09-16 | Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16? | 76,605,306 | 76,605,306 |
3e85299c8d0fdafaa8f7c8b39c42b8303a7ce464 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xfd67cefaef51232de4c5ece6b272d09f2f964bba493db93dbaabc7955f66540d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | 76,605,306 | 76,605,306 |
92192ec43db25dfbb797bdeb108dff04cffb749c | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x029f84cff65875a0d4715f72cc538d1598bcf4aead64d52d015c7e2cde698327 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18 | Will Sporting CP vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw? | 76,894,214 | 76,894,214 |
3b2135657d14a024b8277c0de0473d2f73b3459a | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x53575ff0c201ec979b5a48c016345e2cb23ea904b2678d7da2ba2624107cda07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | uel-crv-clt-2025-09-24 | Will Celtic win on 2025-09-24? | 76,894,228 | 76,894,228 |
cffc1d4b02225ad2d08dcf7cd60fe30d28764543 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x7bf887144a998fb08eb1a107d54a89382ae12604b8a4a1ea237240463085a87e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | uel-mal-lud-2025-09-24 | Will Ludogorets win on 2025-09-24? | 76,894,320 | 76,894,320 |
7b28c394404645de6fa0208da50fafc094ea5d4a | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x9fa802f417e5b7bfcaae371395a41c863bda969e5ad995043b73add73e0d33e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uel-crv-clt-2025-09-24 | Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-09-24? | 76,894,320 | 76,894,320 |
ef208f55049e3413efb1be10a7eff777fd25929f | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x230bcd9e6a1127b5a955d84dbe24c95ef270fa7fbdd727dcc477c923b0afcdec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Will Brann win on 2025-09-25? | 76,914,813 | 76,914,813 |
1aa688ab271781d58efc60f13e5cc410ddece1f4 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x25c8151db6f1be6b12c3cf5449b1601f8194c4fcea5c6a9cc3fbe1746ccfe8d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-09-25? | 76,914,902 | 76,914,902 |
1da7fa5e812f0df4d04a8704d322826228289d3e | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x37b7cba6b4adf7b98365962ae06d214e67561b9163e3c7754a4b5cc5780d6205 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25? | 76,914,902 | 76,914,902 |
6e65ffe4f0976fe3d68d76d364fc9226cca922e9 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xc51d86dd99e6398640abb759d82c5797fdb63ff19b060d017e7403e1c9837d2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Will Bologna win on 2025-09-25? | 76,914,916 | 76,914,916 |
ee6b815245efa33c589d9db43773c60d21cd3ffa | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xe7f05bc4906296f7bffd1edd5850da6c291c12c82bdd8117bcdb1ce5f66e8dd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? | 77,132,864 | 77,132,864 |
a83c3bcff12e04f4513897a959eaef38980bb722 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,132,881 | 77,132,881 |
2defe2c9594d06cb87c93833f1f5effc101c55c1 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x1c54bb7b4b94ed15224cc69b465668a3f0a80bc3b6a909b0877d721cb3ec71b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | 77,132,881 | 77,132,881 |
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