sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e62d578dcbfd2b128a1e14d288d078421fc535a3 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x5d64b8dc60faa9c94960168b7c8a12b10896e97da285bb56e7eb9704a6e1a2ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30? | 77,132,881 | 77,132,881 |
dff5f214021cb15586b811f794cd6766e00dd010 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xbdc44116af665eacc019514e29a606f5cbe2975be4c5910641b8e0ea9f03c746 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-mad-fra-2025-09-30 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-30? | 77,132,881 | 77,132,881 |
1e87236b36bd6e8cd0966a6439f8e94a62f52df8 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xf98d8c1395fd9a36cd8409cae04af9d3e5c6f8272eca46089574d8e3272eead6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | 77,132,881 | 77,132,881 |
9023f98698e1a1aa69a7377d93c8be386aa3aa56 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,149,566 | 77,149,566 |
6ad90c5b30804b9824a169a01743d4b7d387dd53 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x985cc719f3349ef26ac27c6999688a7768ae4d9e3442c7829dd377d42547ffa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-mon-mac-2025-10-01 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? | 77,149,568 | 77,149,568 |
7257e3670a68f7b3cab49ec6a12df2e7ef64e176 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x9aefeb2d5459d5bf13eb9ed80c304a4a18bd0425df71d53a4da2a3827ad89abd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | 77,149,568 | 77,149,568 |
f2a1b0f31ba850226a2de42afd2182acd1304782 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x3845383c34dbd138a78234684ada35bd075a39a2a7360d9e426bbf463ef4dd29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-11? | 77,583,358 | 77,583,358 |
8d2305ece6d58355411dc00dd85a41bf85314a64 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x4553c7bcfa722ad55f1f9214ed8e3abb6e120ce46a33283ec7679cfb5865c2bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-nor-isr-2025-10-11 | Will Norway win on 2025-10-11? | 77,583,358 | 77,583,358 |
820746dbb5e4550acb131f92740f61ea1b9dd433 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x76ea724f9807aabe1b2fbc835775a2ae0fb68d68ec131fbe189aa18b1b32c657 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-est-ita-2025-10-11 | Will Italy win on 2025-10-11? | 77,583,358 | 77,583,358 |
0be608e91180244699f603e49155af2370945f1c | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x7a0e84dd78c89037c7aa76d9898e189bf67b455cc4f93129bbdca3e001a3c442 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-hun-arm-2025-10-11 | Will Hungary win on 2025-10-11? | 77,583,358 | 77,583,358 |
e94115818127a578c2b55dc444997b2b95bb72f7 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x9825f7716c38f9b2e7e15432e1c1ad2bb1bb5f254a668d09336b91ddd0659e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | 77,583,358 | 77,583,358 |
91bfd9dc0cab476ccb90b09051af0b3871bd2343 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xd2bd058d786afc205147c7227bb59b5b04ddba444244a0e6d246d8fa416c130c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? | 77,583,358 | 77,583,358 |
95977efdda610eab80884bcf9aa01d152763c9db | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xe10190526534563cc1dd9b59d7361e80d2392661cf39cd55c6158b4ee446aa4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | 77,583,358 | 77,583,358 |
fe31dc0eec76a347f2f097087bbd5400c6a2cd80 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x04685da850aab60c7eae1b43f1d3b654eced97b74545261b71d08e820fce09b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | yes | 1 | uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Will San Marino vs. Cyprus end in a draw? | 77,600,048 | 77,600,048 |
aaca6d006aec56db6852f840dde37fdd273832ac | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x1801f481a410f7c2e781bba74a222a0f7e6306eead05aca38e093963734a8add | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Will Cyprus win on 2025-10-12? | 77,600,048 | 77,600,048 |
577e3473147e6486e767c0c03a74ca7004ebeb76 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x77927e301fed9124438e246f70ecd4a3160ad0aa7ea5fc091bd1bd1211d46be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ben-kar-2025-09-16 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12? | 77,600,048 | 77,600,048 |
d542fc6a469a41a6b8c1bd6590a87ef7397748c2 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x7eacfba01742b276a78a34198f52a80c053c9e5f2afb09c6d95392a6a87273cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ben-kar-2025-09-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Ch... | no | 1 | uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | 77,600,048 | 77,600,048 |
3f5d2d7038b91747d74d39f52fe7bd5339dde246 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xe24ae4854d59e1b4e3d0193df9cca838c370fbad34a733b6f3d208c3bf6cd57b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ben-kar-2025-09-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sporting CP vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw? | Event: ucl-spo-ka... | yes | 1 | uef-sco-bel1-2025-10-12 | Will Belarus win on 2025-10-12? | 77,600,048 | 77,600,048 |
a1f2957ec81e5e8b1b889fe3b6727ec6179edeb9 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xf6c2837f17c8a00bd607e8bd595309483c4814633bf746d70e186d7890654b65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sporting CP vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw? | Event: ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-crv-cl... | no | 1 | uef-sco-bel1-2025-10-12 | Will Scotland win on 2025-10-12? | 77,600,048 | 77,600,048 |
da1501d00bb256ac47c50c502a8e2103aeb0372e | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x1963a7d39ab330b84526e254906ff060f8a9d59bc1d6d9a932e04c55f0cb0595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sporting CP vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw? | Event: ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-crv-clt-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ludogorets win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-mal-lud... | no | 1 | uef-den-grc-2025-10-12 | Will Denmark vs. Greece end in a draw? | 77,619,034 | 77,619,034 |
0505b4f260ecfaadcd5259ce9c167b8e1ed38144 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x507a0daeb27437d796944d75fab1ac0dd400c06a1fd7689a3be27030b714e760 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-crv-clt-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ludogorets win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-mal-lud-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-crv-clt-2025-09-24 | C... | no | 1 | uef-rom-aut-2025-10-12 | Will Austria win on 2025-10-12? | 77,619,034 | 77,619,034 |
603ee5215e85025938f1dc3eb6c27d7ce161989d | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x81e3d101c9e2615382249e34533c72ff78991599dff8a67bfb925e55e437f32e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ludogorets win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-mal-lud-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-crv-clt-2025-09-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brann win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Cho... | no | 1 | uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Will Sweden win on 2025-10-13? | 77,675,009 | 77,675,009 |
2dc543fb274f64f8bbc41495910c147633241765 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xdae21429203621232f95735d01d1daf0a3cfb23e5baec003f20e48086badc7e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-09-24? | Event: uel-crv-clt-2025-09-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brann win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | ... | no | 1 | uef-mac-kaz-2025-10-13 | Will North Macedonia win on 2025-10-13? | 77,675,009 | 77,675,009 |
57e608d574e1d2b3fa83135af2914699c5ca586e | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x0232d9789fad275889803816a0db229c56a25ae6af416c45612165b499c7ecc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brann win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | ... | no | 1 | uef-lit-pol-2025-10-12 | Will Poland win on 2025-10-12? | 77,675,046 | 77,675,046 |
5e38b3278c73ace5f1eddd99ff39aadb212eeb76 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x10782e00b6398e19d20a83f3b23b1b2f3c41728b106c2874b75f339226a870ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 ... | yes | 1 | uef-mac-kaz-2025-10-13 | Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-10-13? | 77,675,046 | 77,675,046 |
7538409848211e386e4beaa6fdda37ce98f43b7a | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x4356837cec1e18e58e6bd079f64a055b0aad71a854035209ef1a0b2a3e8c8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | C... | yes | 1 | uef-slv-che-2025-10-13 | Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-13? | 77,675,046 | 77,675,046 |
a10c64e144d7af7235188678584664cf31bd1860 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x5332b269dc5cd6f35a25f39d1ba7b2d7792d39e39572498b89b2ab4af9a14aea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Choi... | no | 1 | uef-ukr-aze-2025-10-13 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? | 77,675,046 | 77,675,046 |
8c35b3a6c2af75721d76ca52acffb6176816904e | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x93b1aea0dfda7269f7cc72bbdf85a4d1319531f7b4b1fe46f18fa4fb0159f7d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 |... | yes | 1 | uef-den-grc-2025-10-12 | Will Greece win on 2025-10-12? | 77,675,046 | 77,675,046 |
f3598477386ef2a24f73398c178605d8b44317e2 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xe3d9ae6e917529210b5a5206121051b5ab2c254e4db0dcb6481bb8544f7f4066 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | C... | yes | 1 | uef-lit-pol-2025-10-12 | Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-12? | 77,675,046 | 77,675,046 |
8cea250b8ea22884e21dc5f3c3771518434b7ef7 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xfb604d3a9e0be40c1e786eb96b5ae78357b75c9fe3e32c35f6a4c9d44f249fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-mad-fra-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? | 77,675,046 | 77,675,046 |
cf076189258d30b92e9cbaa8fe578f9e4ac979ad | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x0e1bf4d5c116557ff5d5ae26549cea15af30eb30ca4d5a1e2487951ac7ed9620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-mad-fra-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 |... | no | 1 | uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Will England win on 2025-10-14? | 77,705,020 | 77,705,020 |
1772d1a1021eb3c49753338ab1c7df39d7841626 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x15dd8d248404d9b70f9ee58f4e85f09fa22cc39c06338ae482053789e0b595bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-mad-fra-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | ... | no | 1 | uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 | Will Italy win on 2025-10-14? | 77,705,020 | 77,705,020 |
22539b8eb23ea9083637fa838b7c9cb32c2657f9 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x64c75058dc333f0b8f7928483d4e544abbf641f12c07cf5def5f4df28aceaafc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-mon-mac-2025-10-01 | Choic... | no | 1 | uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-14? | 77,705,020 | 77,705,020 |
dfb7c79723acbfdc1394ad132f0535e11978a274 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x823da0aae9ffe284cba8f003bc9e84a899df5bf6a6bd87f7b81b28639bfebef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-mon-mac-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | C... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Will Spain vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? | 77,705,020 | 77,705,020 |
ea8de60016c3da40509b547ac5c4bb7c888b0858 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x8ca1944bb82dca481489e2a8936c3e389a347461d9211ddab03d9280880e7597 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-mon-mac-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | ... | no | 1 | uef-and-ser-2025-10-14 | Will Serbia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,705,020 | 77,705,020 |
6cd6dcf677b7f8cc45e5e52f3cf19ba332d2f4a4 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0xfac0ede906069601847057680d56bed30d17119988ecebb9b10be500abcd47bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Norway win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-nor-isr-2025-10-11 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | uef-prt-hun-2025-10-14 | Will Portugal win on 2025-10-14? | 77,705,042 | 77,705,042 |
6c9bfdb5fca07aa64f08cd1f4076467a540ba7a1 | 0x28e67dd7623e6393e8d9be024efd4159fe7fd9c7 | 0x203724b6732e51443876cb7d6f057885ae7d5f492693aa816e0961ea8afd9ed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Norway win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-nor-isr-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-est-ita-2025-10-11 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,003,480 | 78,003,480 |
74604dc98d34a5b02b4f31a1e20716fb64b3f37a | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01?
Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,164,601 | 77,164,601 |
a64caecc47b72b728069d241df38ec29e5d3dce3 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xe5c604fe44fd824d7de814e460431d6637cb74251d06a89065bd2dbcca4bc4e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02?
Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidenc... | no | 1 | uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | 77,212,435 | 77,212,435 |
ea5c8cd6b7ac6ebf5a29632d80b9e3264ecc1345 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0x6a0600c8b1f00abf5cc05b62942de7f43b7232e6355d7b1352f1a6326c5269eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03?
Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03... | yes | 1 | tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | 77,244,197 | 77,244,197 |
e38116b041361ef94e3041111a504bae16d23cc2 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xd3c36efd820875f3f4706ed80e12100e62f4e90dafe57749c211b66d6773bf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | 77,402,128 | 77,402,128 |
47019510e79a0a21d0d3b8b6dd473095375f3e42 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xdd00a13c6b9d292dd086a20e7b7dbe1751600d18f339bd63a61c1405ae5bd3eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | mls-laf-tor-2025-10-08 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-08? | 77,458,597 | 77,458,597 |
602b94f864bf96c87aa0b9b8a646968e899a1855 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xceb84fd0be0a7fbd7d097353b7961368d3e641afae761d59e1dfd564505293ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | uef-nir-svk-2025-10-10 | Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-10? | 77,585,206 | 77,585,206 |
029ca06f7d21ffb91bca7ba02eeee7c7a3b29fe2 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xd85b7c7e413d633221650da2bcc9c5cab6a9f90b2e1139b0ebf609477764150f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | arg-iac-cat-2025-10-12 | Will CA Tucumán win on 2025-10-12? | 77,675,421 | 77,675,421 |
29cd49fe7365b99ff9de342ccc604ead0de29258 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0x15dd8d248404d9b70f9ee58f4e85f09fa22cc39c06338ae482053789e0b595bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 | Will Italy win on 2025-10-14? | 77,717,316 | 77,717,316 |
176533d8c5dcfbf16f82d0262c8a96e96ae38a66 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xc2376d3f4d84ee4694fb2b3330a3033fb5e834cfa5bba7ab605a90ba0f1c6a22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-15? | 77,740,250 | 77,740,250 |
3908afbfc257c35520b92b1fa97ce8e2c777bd96 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xe179729988e70d3cfd97e165de7457f1bf7320513421546d9aaae1e96b1c25f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | bra-vit-bah-2025-10-16 | Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-16? | 77,806,235 | 77,806,235 |
90eb577da48bbbdac260ddeca4d3d72b9f7efc3d | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0xe414c2d635dacf9feb5021eae01f11ca60fcd8c6f016ac6a85dc1430edb2ae37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-10-27? | 78,322,756 | 78,322,756 |
0e0bcf0973edfceb60eaafe82fbbf74512ede571 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0x96634633577ebc7500136dee2136f35454824deb4e74f8a116a707d83bc1f8d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | bun-lei-stu-2025-11-01 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01? | 78,492,090 | 78,492,090 |
a359105df675afe439dae610b389785d30fd9da3 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0x86d669c09877311417c7925744c3d1d7db30adc3ec07d10435ecc478df313dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | 79,037,843 | 79,037,843 |
662f591040237602c703d123e24b7d383cf52738 | 0x294019750c40a92cdafb72b68f4e6a462ebb793a | 0x89b6e701e9b25dece0098c1fa93ff66895c4a2650073b456354d043da452b292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-10-03? | Event: tur-tra-kay-2025-10-03 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | uef-cze-gib-2025-11-17 | Will Czechia win on 2025-11-17? | 79,274,659 | 79,274,659 |
8572375a9b9a3b11e76f9a27d83f18eefc4b30a0 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
Event: belarus-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,375,790 | 67,375,790 |
7ed4677d28b4b46566db78635b1d638c6bee67b1 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x7b0f6f3b168bfeeb8356a2e525d0566bd54118d79a44433485a1ddef9b32dee2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31?
Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31
Predict the user's choice and confidence f... | no | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | 67,407,075 | 67,407,075 |
07eb404c6b35a753dc3a0f7fde7b1805a5d1ec62 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xb80559cded72bf1bef053fc135e7b1d0061005b5d986b2b00eb9676a7b50c49d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Questio... | no | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will Meta have the top AI model on January 31? | 67,407,075 | 67,407,075 |
74cfce60f3ef887561ed837db30864e767632ad6 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xc4f606569acc4d2871bf0cae1b53d0a12dae9f289d2f1011b4ead72b066ac00a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? | 67,407,075 | 67,407,075 |
5d768b9ca58242c006da8e69e2eedc56a3992eec | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xd2d2f2432fa978512d7dedbabb395ca5283123b5e7c239b80b994726996df2dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year? | 67,485,725 | 67,485,725 |
9d51dc506620e71811802c085b3398f6d13fa62d | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xe9457843bee925935748507cc4ec194b9c7b418114b71dde310617ea69210566 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? | 67,485,725 | 67,485,725 |
d225939242b122d78921d2612061ffb9542d9b27 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x4cdd4091f3e14a8cf007153e209577afafbb40fd741a450ccb3e960da6c7e0c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | january-unemployment-rate | Will the January unemployment rate be 4.3% or higher? | 67,656,144 | 67,656,144 |
11f3141e4756f4bbac32515603d0b1e3ec40225f | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x722c4f982b706e1e3cc20e2b5e905fac12d50625a8a587039ab35d85533223dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | january-unemployment-rate | Will the January unemployment rate be less than or equal to 4.0%? | 67,656,163 | 67,656,163 |
5e04d986939fefbe47439b67ffdac7992dc29ef9 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x93f11059e90cf830925d5e9b0765e1ef7584396447e64cff6ce1cb2e586e75ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | january-unemployment-rate | Will the January unemployment rate be 4.2%? | 67,656,163 | 67,656,163 |
6c9c67e5e5acbc15269e934e9ef601ca4bcbcdbf | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xa19cd8dc290d6bc79c7b9ddfe116bcda00560c667206946c951d3b31ba12e16f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | january-unemployment-rate | Will the January unemployment rate be 4.1%? | 67,656,163 | 67,656,163 |
746a08f20622af48ecc2d3615a20d07005e536da | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x3f56bae1879b7336e2e77fd2955557216cd305cff2481844e799050b364a3ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,349,783 | 68,349,783 |
bb5161676a9444d5d9bc00164171a9fcfe4ced33 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x4411688b128d9652bbad80a99ad722b63e47b4cabd0982f42510971744587c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,349,783 | 68,349,783 |
988c29b3d5685761fbcf26fa81f9183729be3dbd | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x59de7d7484f77cefa3f1ad25c1638222db44b927e85c3e324ea0c45594695600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,349,783 | 68,349,783 |
e8de1b4d66ab259db091f701b587aae58dcd3440 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xb7faecd2db357e4634fe87ef9bb48b4e1305cd618276d730b73190662fe6bafd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,349,783 | 68,349,783 |
6299d6da7b6135ae4d5f6a9ab9cf0f5afd7ab768 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x441ee96b2392a7c81f153da622b548883647f525c1a1a53517b9653836f0c782 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? | 68,491,625 | 68,491,625 |
8ba75d346dcf51ec2999874f5eef329a025d2518 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xc50248c9651c9c832a4d73c024f4a4a48d289b7ec08a80a65ee3b74f90e37fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | 68,491,625 | 68,491,625 |
e221a0f99bcb2ff161882f2408cfff38f1caa89d | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xd7762ef4621a4cbeded53a5f98aa66baa8d677dd353486eaf9dcaf6014a9c59d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | largest-company-february-28 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | 68,555,830 | 68,555,830 |
9a2c94874e5d694945205cccce247fb6686dfb0b | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x75a8981659dc4efa2a2bdb4b3d31c5a5827500a2feb19f6a4cb3889893f1485c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,796,247 | 68,796,247 |
844a6da23037022ada97b0193bd39a14a282e250 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xda7eb9bc4dbe9b8324785e5590c0cc30f8785e1a76a43a3a06bc171f96d62524 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,796,247 | 68,796,247 |
8da5ead4cf16fe55b0c1f40bce8d20e9bebc056e | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xdbfaca77c2fae07c079eb7633862717a21c3ac9f1ee2b22ba4c98ccb5bedab5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,796,247 | 68,796,247 |
9aff5b8f27d4a63dc4f0894ff33792b930f689ec | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xeed6da09683149b433aeb802bd8d3f78a6b6d8799fa75bd0d73c3f87c6b2b592 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | 69,290,990 | 69,290,990 |
2bfdceb249959b74919b70662da102848db2b018 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xef5604329fee713a68f4faa9d3014614c7486525864a11f2ebb054179a0c362e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | 69,290,990 | 69,290,990 |
f38a9d752d100436d11aefea9394a5bfd7fb89d7 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x5e27fe0f4593da2eeff2c8c0601909c33dcc8882c71f2c992a4e153ef0781572 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 0.999462 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,737,225 | 69,737,225 |
f3fcddeb688e9310d19d1bb991f4a9119b7b3bfe | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x20cc003f4a4e1587148fb9629cda11d0db9a48aed16a3a50f6d024c58c615157 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 0.999219 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,771,104 | 69,771,104 |
694a0a7b17398815330408a128d6bbce62bba771 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x02eb6fb967ef78120c601757549794474640d4e1082beaf88dc9c0d34fc825ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,771,491 | 69,771,491 |
25368608874a45de60361d5eb55881c46411f282 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x7e94c0dca0ab6750d3a8f772a19fe5910c63f1daa117be14eba13a27f77899ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-march | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | 69,771,725 | 69,771,725 |
f08ca183faad3ba4e3da7742812b92cd3af3bdac | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x5d95c5d73fdbfa8476a4061f6319c252dc5b0c2d6246ae02c913630a0a00f636 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | 70,182,744 | 70,182,744 |
b6e1aad3db00e3a2de8cd5fee1d7d24c9144eaf6 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x3642a4e445b534ca364fade04bb77aeb07d2aad3e939c4b360ad0f1db920b34c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? | 70,307,857 | 70,307,857 |
ffe2be659de5edf48ae45567c9277a23933b5f43 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xa5663d39d2e7dd9345f616eb3f873c0109d96a52076e2185bdecb7135006d59e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? | 70,975,432 | 70,975,432 |
d004c5c7dd3a8470b942cc031498ac6dc632c9db | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xae6dab898b0531faf72bf9f09517538249131850cfe48b309f7f91124411c380 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | 70,975,433 | 70,975,433 |
b2cae00835fc43c9cb04e83193e13eb2ec5ef31b | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xb93d06094398583af003c0f2b3319e4cf2f080fb1e304aadfccbc870600751e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Meta ... | no | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2025 | Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025? | 70,975,433 | 70,975,433 |
31a4b5c3a1d7e891d4bf87d19ceb146054857802 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x47aa82bc10dfc85e39d34a7ede15bd45df27fb4d3112f3bce59aaf139a0fbf8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Meta have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on ... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? | 70,975,434 | 70,975,434 |
936310756a34226f98b83914f13743b3e2133383 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x37e6c1227c1ee562cbd906099dadbd658ddca8cdb9730736857b4d82701c6393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Meta have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record... | yes | 1 | next-chancellor-of-germany | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | 71,438,140 | 71,438,140 |
02d7b1b64aa0ea3172a82b5003e4862adaeb81d1 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x87c91c07f3f83b6a52d816d8e95d3be0c1040857e9d2949d67302a0288f181ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Espresso' win Record of th... | no | 1 | next-chancellor-of-germany | Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | 71,438,140 | 71,438,140 |
1fcc6add35b1195ec675a4f21acc92f32afb9441 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xff9fc7e6239b4d92f24d9100f3b1415dfcbb34ec15afcdcc4359692b0517e20e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be 4.3%... | yes | 1 | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | 71,438,140 | 71,438,140 |
0cb6b437ef1e079650ab458c12b08ce640a08cb9 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xffffb2874475ae9c1e3a0e3c3c4b4e329eb3105427aa484f357bf41c5fd77c4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be 4.3% or higher? | Event: january-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be le... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | 71,438,140 | 71,438,140 |
909ca2ef6df87dee84e48532315b55a10a8afeca | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x696ba4726b7a261960878b703c525857ba5a08ee7e1404aa83bd8faa1e1d8687 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be 4.3% or higher? | Event: january-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be less than or equal to 4.0%? | Event: january-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Januar... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | 71,907,132 | 71,907,132 |
1be5d7c1a78eeffebef1957cf91199731a111d4c | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xa6658afc37e5479fdf54f6a43c2fce50c9acc72aae9762e23f9d871912ac8a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be less than or equal to 4.0%? | Event: january-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Event: january-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the January unemploy... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-may | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | 72,844,023 | 72,844,023 |
03239065263297d43112c298d80f5a037b3ba959 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xdf22571f38286a13ef30bb31197c737a77610f071f093ff643c951d644d76ba3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Event: january-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Event: january-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | 72,844,023 | 72,844,023 |
6c2ed4640c0044f12223c4d0865c0374398a9b81 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the January unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Event: january-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SPD win the second most... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 73,418,110 | 73,418,110 |
823f899000ceaa707a37c13d29ba403b43cb882b | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x8ee6ab7612226e196528f7f61127c82ba1883dd1f4799cbfb86d4e8a4b430a91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1? | 73,816,666 | 73,816,666 |
ffeb356b30c1771c9d737ff6ddd5e6a0c05d7120 | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x4a68d828f7263f34391484404380c34efa9566f12a08a88553ddbe8e285c3ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-electi... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | 74,709,152 | 74,709,152 |
08a7f2d06521fbca3962710e7b3d8a2c0d01d5fb | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x8d54219ef43b4a2ba1904ba6155786263d1e3005dcd6bac978d28e3ada2aa489 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-electi... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-july | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 74,709,152 | 74,709,152 |
a9ece5642c2609b081916082aec2cab9af59942d | 0x29879c31053b633b653d3c1b2ce81d4af8508512 | 0x42ef427d3b65855d71b0ad74a7cd6ec354b8fa0dc8e29a02562197459be976e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-august | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | 76,010,806 | 76,010,806 |
82d8dd586e92b805f6e861ab8c6001a4c8d2e1a5 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x30153000de3d440b9d08deb6a7c1c1e9513f488a6fba7ab1c5441dffce773521 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner
Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | gen.g | 0.000004 | lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | 78,268,581 | 78,268,581 |
0e711a275e9d1193204f3cebe53da0d96d483c80 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x0d2624a37a3ee634f86fc382bb99c0d2f37f83e04c4e0c234ccafbacf3e42860 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
Target market:
Question: 76ers vs. Wizards
Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:... | 76ers | 0 | nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | 76ers vs. Wizards | 78,298,860 | 78,304,727 |
7761ce3bac57b98f3607efcf06985413eb42a905 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x8537a730944579ad641994d6cbb14a636e1fdafc7615aa95d779018ae2d6191a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5... | g2 esports | 0 | lol-g2-tes-2025-10-30 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | 78,356,885 | 78,357,543 |
511b44ee623973d7a39ffa15fdd753201ce76d08 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x2d669099a9d387e1c4e144ccf43d9523f057cf9b36f9c55c37f509f31be4344f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | anyone's legend | 0 | lol-al-t1-2025-10-31 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner | 78,399,183 | 78,399,457 |
4cbf3eaf74ed7b113c72da3284068d3d9f840a39 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x309b383d4c3f4a97d25213570c5f1e795d87ea2161c24aa09d82da8b201e0f25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | anyone's legend | 0 | lol-al-t1-2025-10-31 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) | 78,401,190 | 78,401,190 |
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