sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a712b5f14a7e8f8f7f9610e70aeaf240eddd29a8 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0xa2372ab83032a3d2cbc59f4bfd2a88b31aa7a156b4f1587fde93dce5663f085c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | kt rolster | 0 | lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner | 78,439,243 | 78,439,590 |
f8fe22b75dbb4c13f998c12df758de73c19c8e7d | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x3028f9085e5d6ae2c5246a3828dfe47cf58d94e6443a3fc5faae2d09d6315cc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-ind-2025-11-04 | Bucks vs. Pacers | 78,559,586 | 78,563,917 |
1508e2df5d1a4d37ed650a88e804d3b57d89d3a2 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0xe4c31b7cf0d9d7ac4d0b9e69fdc073c04fda0ebf7464a523144adc50c15717dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | celtics | 0 | nba-uta-bos-2025-11-04 | Jazz vs. Celtics | 78,560,490 | 78,560,490 |
46c03676191b466677f5b28b1f859d39abb40cac | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x90da9e854db48d5f1abbf0611444f60017181ebab432cd9138e914edf9f97c37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | t1 | 0 | lol-t1-kt-2025-11-09 | LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner | 78,785,092 | 78,785,159 |
f0e40adf0374ce88772663be126c332f3fab41e8 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x8404e511c42018ce709291c768824b49651d8713c8abdab85b19b7ee82a09d0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | kt rolster | 0 | lol-t1-kt-2025-11-09 | LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | 78,792,247 | 78,792,247 |
84c0e1593858b901ba3d366d71a36146ec6ba66a | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x4be911bd6212333670aef283f63d824ff57d91782b4db5e18f91c20144ac45aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-mia-2025-11-11 | Cavaliers vs. Heat | 78,863,485 | 78,863,485 |
5a0d15d637de4c1008dbe6ce5973bdc37ec96da6 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x93602d67b8dd1a7f2f7803f773a5f10e87f40c63d496e5b5663c770f93457387 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-dal-2025-11-11 | Bucks vs. Mavericks | 78,864,614 | 78,869,176 |
74711a33109e559aafa771b9669d993cd62d3e63 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x6c3263def96926aef638d96263b61936b08519de4bc0d50e9f1c71510a5a9869 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | mavericks | 0 | nba-phx-dal-2025-11-12 | Suns vs. Mavericks | 78,950,423 | 78,950,423 |
0af82baf60e173f1b059ea2496fc45c393d566b6 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0xbd26ac443a3ed17cc245dc0f06e1994244545ff34e90afa21bd4e081e056e767 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | magic | 0 | nba-bkn-orl-2025-11-14 | Nets vs. Magic | 79,034,650 | 79,034,650 |
9a887c930d5c574928ad2fab4a34fbff727dd89f | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0xbd3d618de90c42961674715677a4be4dc270abd6a96ab63a5e4ba7bbc43204c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | lakers | 0 | nba-lal-nop-2025-11-14 | Lakers vs. Pelicans | 79,035,337 | 79,058,985 |
6d584b8afa18a8539c703827964b83b64e297162 | 0x29978facc899668e4972a6a21b73aff0a8bc6c34 | 0x16cf9f8c5997debc4c4d96a5f3ed709d4b3ff1a4bc5afd6797a2f3f97a4f09ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 4.068242937981653e-06
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lo... | bucks | 0 | nba-cha-mil-2025-11-14 | Hornets vs. Bucks | 79,036,618 | 79,058,985 |
1aa6892e77cd9892c7fcd154ea6da0abaf4e2c6c | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x936f642a35c0d4323b2621ccd243e17e571c9aebd341a74af77c515ac6637b73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | 78,910,789 | 78,910,789 |
174e8b23dc25e06a277f9a4fc8aad9c35e15a8ee | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x077fc0c447abfc7e094713e86d62acc20480560a6eb60bfbfc86a1c5f00b9339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end
Predict the user's choice ... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 12? | 78,972,532 | 78,972,532 |
77b6783c65d1faaef838bd3a47ffdae72e82e623 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x8d5e2fcd034a4a2db72b5f876735a8fa27dddaeeb01a5c4303d3929e5969792b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 14? | 79,046,183 | 79,046,183 |
90867fc45748cb8637fb7fcf145cf4586372375c | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0xa97203ad956a93eb6e7d0088effdb6e3e5dd6b1141225cd4771feabeadba3938 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November 14? | 79,046,186 | 79,046,186 |
dbbbc904e22a6ab309d7ff193b622ee14176deb5 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x949aefe6be7523ef0dcc637c3ab8cb361efbbb9ad34f9e1f293d627414a0f35b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 14? | 79,046,190 | 79,046,190 |
2ad8c9e8dda5428e16d6ad0b8e8ab5f158652e39 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x20cf5e0f8329f9967f3232d732d06006367f9d9afd896b42742aacc6d0f9cac0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November 11? | 79,046,205 | 79,046,205 |
7e73d020616a10f93f155bd16653728905b601a5 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0xa5c1f872cc68efcda048c6cd85c380cb845d79a4e36754619587d180ec777013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November 16? | 79,146,416 | 79,146,416 |
538b2b8dbdacc373c5c2e9c830b75391f1ab6ba4 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0xcc14160a924394312c29ddd81d3bdb1beff7a15a423a8b4627e9b6bd608b0fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,189,070 | 79,189,070 |
1d78913cb1ecbfa1cb7a4a8c296d4df83d32680d | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0xec21462ef58f792b5c1ff07bfdc66401b631c6fb42562ccceb2de279f0e73788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | 79,452,901 | 79,452,901 |
2a9d31b3a25cb29740469d22832c4b751b34e442 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x55a469ea12fc89bf6b12c38fc764e35c05b4b520485adf4c8716d6369b38ad8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | 79,561,565 | 79,561,565 |
34eed2740e0cc684fc5fd7610bd10323b650824b | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0xb03a595d2a38347e2e8abf145099690823542377f34fe98ede3f03d295533e4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | uef-nld-lit-2025-11-17 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-17? | 79,561,636 | 79,561,636 |
924ed478c87c2d9a121c707e151574569f93086c | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x0f02577a1f7f10df33f1c29c2bd5b117aa00df125c198264ae2df73962e4d98f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on November 25? | 79,561,658 | 79,561,658 |
e6a896b912f0b997ca550643c3bd198bd2be60ea | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0xdde3934ebb343576f4443530a4b7d03a57afb3bfc332d662cbed967daf434287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on November 26? | 79,561,682 | 79,561,682 |
ef365b9dd83905f46ea33c4f54be750d2007c8c7 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0xa8848ecd60add4eb9e28776c916485c1a62a7e7544dd63863a0811c270b38303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 28? | 79,655,555 | 79,655,555 |
3a453e45a3c40d09e796eee7f4654c6e375d4576 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x48babb16a2a5e05c87d64aef3615588fb9e7f06892a6c3efe668e6457c850bc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on November 28? | 79,655,557 | 79,655,580 |
db424b81251f2991dc8bbb995f3c4782ec168c32 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x4cb72953fcbb5e5f64cde42a5b9e7bd7b0dbfca55bbb1c35b17c98db43ffed6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $94,000 on November 28? | 79,655,571 | 79,655,571 |
78b59044ddb35141a8991a63c37704f8331e024d | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x6527f4dca87582eb9959e2118ea98ba905389cccf6ab33363a1f79e0c7c19900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on November 27? | 79,655,584 | 79,655,584 |
860e33207ace792ade81e880af09d5634b3e360d | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x017c9492c7d2f18e03326d39991cfd2e56be0892b200f271a7b88cf3ab76ef4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 27? | 79,655,587 | 79,655,587 |
c7f3500f3d327ce1e80accc9baaabf70b6f92829 | 0x29a92594a41e30261e1516a2af172a0e376846bb | 0x9f4305fefd4c4e3442486b21a559f517148e2ab5ac207802f0a949bd9519553b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-december-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 3? | 79,923,600 | 79,923,600 |
f1ea4dd1e6ae43ff93289010f4e92952e26b8dee | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x422a4048c5715063294544c82c22be3088ce68ceda239378967ad6134d7639d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.337209 | nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | 67,730,995 | 67,730,995 |
ea19dbf328cc10baf06450da8ffce0c23f326d36 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x56595482909ac59186ab3f1926f267ae32bf021d6e16ea220d468e53c8b430f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
Target market:
Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11?
Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market... | no | 0.011015 | ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | 67,846,639 | 67,846,639 |
7803e753e79f70caf6b9ca8c3ebc599106f40da6 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x15e61785bf423d21cad2f38dcef2ae63e94e383e2408e49500be20fe6b32b7fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
Target market:
Question: ... | no | 0.198523 | paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m? | 68,235,170 | 68,235,170 |
2156411733debac7f05542661367c74698630080 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x0e01028e5fe1923d90c69340cfb6763e94cebf33a9c1018f8fd679d72a2c513f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 12? | 69,120,333 | 69,120,333 |
163214e9b53fb368d00b5ced0f08b5a69985c406 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x1839266c960f6cccdea9ee12a46b8962c967023b617c26052f805df003b76661 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on March 12? | 69,120,337 | 69,120,337 |
525af1ce1925c273d809b2277b74f8bbef5041c9 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x14d67c9064debc7dd539c062cf511f400f61531c69c99732adb7fe2c88cb5127 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0.046047 | novocaine-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend? | 69,206,991 | 69,206,991 |
46c3ad46398b509e22964e5e6d8cea9d42285e6b | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0xaf531d2f0f7b1bbd958a4d94bb6222aed0a3ad1b90b1b18d30d768af1dc12a9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | yes | 0.141017 | novocaine-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? | 69,206,991 | 69,206,991 |
a792450803e1b4dd8e4e6eb4d136e59fff8ebb5b | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x31b00298fd4222286461c326fd60bc47caee6ee112e19975442469071ce69d52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | yes | 0.002833 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-21 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 21? | 69,485,882 | 69,485,882 |
073de8111f378726b4fb2370a905754f738d7828 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x3a6f547a580dfa4c4ea14bc01f0f7467e64a241c65662362e440e683250a3d5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | yes | 0.036269 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-21 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 21? | 69,485,882 | 69,485,882 |
37bb4bb766e29c1e7fe0c817dd22d9380d52bfd8 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x46b56fd1fe95c64f13ce93b85150b7cdfeae64c5fb4376287c6c3572ae59e293 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0 | epl-bre-bri-2025-04-19 | Will Brentford win on 2025-04-19? | 70,577,271 | 70,577,271 |
bb7a8768fa34f14387bf054403ebf7c1add1883c | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x7cb549977a13c343dad5bec3edb95319bcad8af8d65b738b122319d9f8eac669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0 | epl-ast-new-2025-04-19 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-19? | 70,577,271 | 70,577,271 |
8e678c81fc6f1c2f793ade59b827efe6793f5e01 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x8dcb594d388b0f49b4cc8a00d0dac3811ec88c115644742536ce06c0bd1687f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0 | epl-cry-bou-2025-04-19 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-19? | 70,577,271 | 70,577,271 |
7699b7ece3d0ccdc0c95c1c8c3a7a60f4bf17783 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x93217f8f6f29fc091e78acc554776c25b921941994a325d998e23283a3bb8970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0 | epl-wes-sou-2025-04-19 | Will West Ham win on 2025-04-19? | 70,577,271 | 70,577,271 |
2f8d8a48c7cea6044a7c45aacc422ce9ad75ed06 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0xfb110751f464227779c659deadc4b177030c4c69548b39a3a9316be153696efd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | yes | 0.003306 | ucl-psg-ars-2025-05-07 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07? | 71,270,885 | 71,270,885 |
e426467d22ff660cf63d72e0f0290769c2ee326e | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0xff9fc7e6239b4d92f24d9100f3b1415dfcbb34ec15afcdcc4359692b0517e20e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | yes | 0.051095 | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | 71,270,885 | 71,270,885 |
a5e0ac909a467264712e495ac815283e6f84fdc7 | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0xffb8295483d1dfc5b9558e79fe7c83e96ebd850c3a5f2379b9c5876f5ec4dc01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0.007194 | ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? | 71,270,885 | 71,270,885 |
dfc2c80885f64715ef194b1cdb98252bbe91f87c | 0x29dca71a9f7faa9772bdd77c22dcb98beab90118 | 0x41a9052efcb4a37b81cedc263e65934e547c9ae5fb163f01006f39d1433affff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Event: nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33720945260963486
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011014781373108603
3. Question: Will "Padding... | no | 0.004525 | uel-bod-tot-2025-05-08 | Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-05-08? | 71,428,967 | 71,428,967 |
bc08d588added942082d41f75b0dd82b0607a60a | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xcd4e5bf8cefe10729cd72eeca5724469b8b4c675c822962f991a6b5cd4cc2592 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confide... | yes | 0.259053 | what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | 79,017,450 | 79,017,450 |
0347aea7d93b325a40ee28283fa1b51fe5242e75 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xf924776e2939fc431529ab280882fcfcc8c04ddd0901bf89396507becf94b2d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
Target market:
Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterl... | yes | 1 | avr-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-20-2025-neg0pt54 | Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? | 79,017,450 | 79,017,451 |
f670dede4bbc87cb73fd663b2bb3ac12d83ba41e | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x821e257202c4b61b9ff06a9718acd592dccb9b8ed474fbf69c52a440da4a8106 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | yes | 0.188426 | will-xai-release-a-dllm-by-june-30 | Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30? | 79,048,040 | 79,883,691 |
39ecf3b743a5217e22020db7803626640154f856 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x974ddd3b7379028f5c2a04c7f65f6da46f6a04dfe798f3e97a8ec9479f6a81e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0.000598 | 3rd-most-streamed-spotify-song-2025 | Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the 3rd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025? | 79,050,001 | 79,055,314 |
92f2bc33d8e59cae65fdb413b9381b5fffcd6ebb | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x1a6e601265f63d99ca0486ee6c4fa07294f6ae34974ceda23453fde5cf7fb334 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | yes | 0.001348 | hyperbeat-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Hyperbeat FDV above $400M one day after launch? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
2ab871b87128f05d8217012e21c4e985920c52fd | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x4bc1542a4ec7808eaa4e4b480358c1f96f97259c4e3d688f0541ee6979d3690e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0 | paul-vs-joshua-of-rounds | Will the fight end in Round 4? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
76de03cbd8032989044306fbe26ed08d8f4981b9 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x700453364864b938e2f7dc0b5550636c0ed89debde954fb17a5fb79b48b84400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0.00076 | total-commitments-for-the-vooi-public-sale | Over $50M committed to the VOOI public sale? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
e28132dc364e0f2df2973b4390f286820b6615a5 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x74da675b5e1363b2215f24f29a13c067ff00220e2ac884a0fac7a94a51aa016e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0.05185 | boxing-jake-paul-vs-anthony-joshua-third-option-included | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
e8ff820d16cf3d3aa52dee4a0fd356241637e66f | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x74dd85b06840a0c4df3559347626f5353e773a2cea51c04d43f7b59897a55911 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0.002197 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-pole-position-2025-11-21 | Will George Russell get pole position at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
8bf371af83dccf1214c3977d99a315974452f25a | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xb7cff8fedf3051728adbff49e88e10c583b9fdf2f92cf43e2f70126938a3a270 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0.00356 | will-trump-praise-zohran-mamdani-on-friday | Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
4424a17f8ca2e469d51c5b4202123057b5d46cd8 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xd4f9069776c20d43e2de25dff38e82dd73f94252b84cdef5a41068cc2aa664fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | warriors | 0.060739 | nba-por-gsw-2025-11-21 | Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
d2e3e2438da749fbe2f63f8c9cc9f2d889afc17d | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xf552080d2539d5f200ae36833af14e710e5f56b8a70e0a741712303ae28927d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | yes | 0.00191 | im-a-celebrity-get-me-out-of-here-series-25-winner | Will Angryginge win series 25 of "I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here!"? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
4ba490ecedcff34fc44d32de3c9fba7bab0c2cfc | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xfb08a969a2c05beda8b5743959182db28be71832f9a84872a786e809b77b5350 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0.642036 | grammys-songwriter-of-the-year-winner | Will Edgar Barrera win Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards? | 79,320,997 | 79,320,997 |
827f961d0e52f04c2bcc040f5cda403bccd2e08d | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x562cac9ad5fd11772818542a05bface213ee494c0f338d975c574bfa5ce0fa96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 1 | earnings-mentions-nvidia-2025-11-19 | Will NVIDIA say "GM / General Motors" during earnings call? | 79,323,804 | 79,323,804 |
9e872ac9980525827ec19d93bf86ce8db28cf2a7 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x56b2745469e0d90970c0d67ce37ae8607b7c28cecca10dce016a172816fcda18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | yes | 0.131196 | ucl-gal-usg-2025-11-25-more-markets | Galatasaray SK vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: Both Teams to Score | 79,323,804 | 79,323,804 |
4c76619db7b23f5151e0dccaa2b10e6235fb1327 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xee8e84e241892e579a9b941168a107eccb9340ed5fb5e8b053ea007e1f952574 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0 | will-mrbeast-hit-x-million-subscribers-by-december-31 | Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31? | 79,363,481 | 79,368,220 |
9c3d5e861733bdd7ce20a79f837d32e76855fa20 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x90a3c71cc4d6285237f77d41d2a2acddf0ebc2721d625261e327cb62293b371f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-thanksgiving-turkey-pardon-on-tuesday-936 | Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday? | 79,472,016 | 79,472,016 |
ea34433d7bbde7a9e1512c3e92b7d9ee55a8e77c | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xcf1858a366be144528ba97dba01104878287b93d9631d9617a997a8af4d3ed76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | yes | 0.000026 | zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office-higher-strikes | Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 177m and 187m? | 79,493,971 | 79,511,503 |
6783d3e7543cba93c64d84e2624e3792b67f0f99 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xba826ee1c5ed2fcd227c08e3d0f81938bf16898811320d4f1e71f95d5a4b1ab6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0 | ct-creator-mindshare-ath-by-march-31-2026 | CBB mindshare all time high by March 31? | 79,511,358 | 79,511,358 |
0f897c08ba95b001b16abcec5c98779d4597b4d3 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0x0e51b79d30b3d2c9477f3b2814c2ad12c4fce59900b9b95d80151fd9a363d9f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0 | nfl-turkey-day-winners-parlay | Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving? | 79,535,076 | 79,535,076 |
cf38617da3d477d7a771bb35f122307dca0e6780 | 0x2a0e962202b307b4066f4be051486a705483800b | 0xf2f3482c83877086fd0070905900de2c875f09c583a132b9a41d4b9d2bf11557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Event: what-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2590531834113118
2. Question: Will Anteris Technologies Global (AVR) beat quarterly earnings? |... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-24-30 | Will Trump say "Epstein Files" this week (November 24–30)? | 79,535,432 | 79,622,798 |
8acca4ee444c77a15af52c8ce3326c07f988a6fd | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x82d254bc3ec5a3231f2e88cf46e24bfe40d49c7198733c334829830938534af5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | 67,955,122 | 67,955,122 |
fd665f51b2343674ff165fee27f3a01923683845 | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x16c77da8a819314d2c259621825e8c25c6f19dac70c8976588b95a33af9532e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24
Predict the user's choice an... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | 69,472,697 | 69,472,697 |
4697c9a499ec069f01f236216ce07763a36412ab | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x3f2b3a183c9621537c0bdac0ac774a63d037b5e58320d68a95755c1dd766c905 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09? | 70,129,305 | 70,129,305 |
a0dea799f2e881d0d2192b5b9212293a25718cdb | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0xc044969b32938e2b4a794eeef8a8cbd093051a75b6351f379e38cb6d7f917610 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-09 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09? | 70,129,305 | 70,129,305 |
15688f8135d9e48b83d8b5a423bbb2f1551fb53f | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x56bb4c803238d214b2c0bb45a5a30fa67bba154a434d5795c95ff327d33d7d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on April 14? | 70,322,637 | 70,322,637 |
3796ae0eb82625a3651a4d07acb01c769fdc286a | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x3f06b51ae9ff9ea15e99a87213279275a9695d9b6e9af9aa136eab03a80426c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on April 16? | 70,418,838 | 70,418,838 |
08c9594bd0849c0d3234eca786612d11e9d47dac | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0xcc568965f34554b464bd48dae56b06a470e6e8bc97b0be6bfe4aa78689b50c68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-17 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on April 17? | 70,444,279 | 70,444,279 |
63d16b55bde574122bf24fb9962e6a06d49ce776 | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x1257b269d259036a71c978f316414539916a8a0d3b710dec1a119eb307077e5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on Apr 18? | 70,506,787 | 70,506,787 |
246930f4832a4b52494d4e4b76342c807cdc8b5b | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0xd486db3c1c51241567dda0326c44fe6208cd82aae6cdaf082cba6fa59764903b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? | 70,506,787 | 70,506,787 |
ca14a7ce23439b407ffecc99cd5222062c2bec74 | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x3330fd287e263a1238d495021a0322ab20c148dcdc80b0e18ce38633b1018170 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-april-25 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on Apr 25? | 70,911,750 | 70,911,750 |
138197d1e70cc962526ad441681393c9393c4436 | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x46d97b2af88fdd220693efe03f1c3c0c9770847abcd31e1b2fb26550770f3124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-int-2025-04-30 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? | 70,974,974 | 70,974,974 |
8c231f646655ac788d284319d707f18663b1ab4d | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0xea405ffce7d914a3a5176b9af7ce7d2d73899d293f6dc2478499ea5bb0f17eac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-bod-2025-05-01 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-01? | 71,011,783 | 71,011,783 |
524f535ed1cda105b9aa390ff8f890fff4a63b1d | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x68d584b69ddc8383bafd2f4ddad29bf560f70d35a52edb1618aec57fdbf84f9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-wol-2025-05-02 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-05-02? | 71,201,721 | 71,201,721 |
107a88e50ddb3e6bf31ff0981e155c0a6cea9cf9 | 0x2a0f7d1358b8386b9e9b3360adb11d5e8872da29 | 0x86bc06ad7ab789bcf87c50f5e93a1da733ad031b9fc924ffb24fb89820661c52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-wol-2025-05-02 | Will Manchester City vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 71,201,721 | 71,201,721 |
2da8c4a7e5375e4d0245eaaece6073cae6dc9a74 | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x076bd2bfa1d63a6e1eb87d300064269eb1789d51949c3441d5c127bcc5af4fc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9?
Event: solana-price-on-october-9
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-9 | Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | 77,500,969 | 77,500,969 |
f1810a9017baed49f35b4d0d06e7c4126011e517 | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0xb57d439b20a88ab9505d9b1d282f3e3462ad399da80b06ffa60c1a5651fe4f53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10?
Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10
Predict the user's choice and... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | 77,510,288 | 77,510,288 |
081121f5a1361a4671bbe427ca78055f6bcfe6cd | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x6d017cc02d988a6502018490626922c4c0e2a53f5cd704bcd0bbb9d699a60703 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target ma... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $128,000 and $130,000 on October 14? | 77,727,895 | 77,727,895 |
0ef7415f673dc9520e8ba8f7aef8ce31688802b9 | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x9cf720612383962ab1f0294ac094d2cd3ee4431009dd05d5c986ec2e0dc06ad9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Solana be between $250 and $260 on October 14? | 77,727,895 | 77,727,895 |
d29f2219f7589f47c212ce7e2aa472f6b8dc96be | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x5c69874a6be1bf575791dd6b9e3ce2b2190b85f177717f3c697f391d63509bca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-16 | Will the price of Solana be between $240 and $250 on October 16? | 77,775,965 | 77,775,965 |
5c80cd08185d44ea143f590b7e3f179ae4c181ab | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x0b0d0869e3072abc64cbc0ba6a56ab2b3b95ffc3147df50ee09ec67e9a8b7675 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on October 18? | 77,856,172 | 77,856,172 |
f35b0c0cc2a88705eff1da4d0bd12f1c785c6732 | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x4e8330c7e9bc878ae5209e2150c8eb3552fd6e29679c87d9ef62d92a9915df22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-18 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.40 and $2.50 on October 18? | 77,856,172 | 77,856,172 |
b133d5571834a7d5ebb3471444c4587d58f72a91 | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x99717f089a4e8adf396354dea5fcfd83a56ef3758d3fa57d827a50537f3a9aad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-18 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on October 18? | 77,856,172 | 77,856,172 |
5c31094c9b3c33f72927dba13a9f438050ffd29e | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0xa692ac5782d1455153a0b385e33944a21f7d8d21c93205261a192f4455e8e609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on October 18? | 77,856,172 | 77,856,172 |
72d913f40a9f893aa2e1571fe149aa2b2c833b2f | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0xad0e0301065e884b189e97c1642402f380d6be85a354492d826678fb2cc34593 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-18 | Will the price of XRP be less than $2.00 on October 18? | 77,856,172 | 77,856,172 |
ba14251e79c0d99e0fefab5113df8cac67c3fa2d | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x1c65e05a349bd5346fef05c2f8ffcbe9ca3b93c3c04ba8ccc4dad28ead5e335c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-20 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $240 on October 20? | 78,052,180 | 78,052,180 |
f1f4cc4e3bef0ddc6a09bfd4544e1a6fbcd8f7c1 | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x20fa7608e47d951019f9c529993eaab438ca64907a0d30edb1e8d42b56870a8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-21 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $250 on October 21? | 78,052,180 | 78,052,180 |
ca2ac58bca916f09fe10d648bffcb742f1ca66fd | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x1aab368b28e2ecb7edf1c2a559f3c5b764e4cdee6897a4783eafab31233e6252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118,000 on October 23? | 78,074,437 | 78,074,437 |
b469e9919895b5f72d489198f14b4f64ebf87d67 | 0x2a43bcf006d6100e9c0c56f654e36c7392d16076 | 0x42cd83de9c386062c7ebf6d2bd3770f2eb3e55b81e6d78e9e665c1d30e24fb2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 9? | Event: solana-price-on-october-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October 23? | 78,074,437 | 78,074,437 |
d4074798b7deac18c1ca262754f346e602951fb6 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x6e7c54117747d90029e6569c62539f76797baf450e9dc93035cee3fdb3982735 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09?
Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.096463 | arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | 78,831,371 | 78,831,371 |
d445fd7121b0ab4134b9a8ad10472220a22bbdf1 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x289d24c172ff0d0b1fbcd9fd8db44c56464afc5573c4a56d8ad348bd39acb0ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
Target market:
Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?
Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output ... | yes | 1 | bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | 78,831,379 | 78,831,379 |
0910524fc2ce14f4c35abbebfbb61ec826082b6c | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x4b7036e02e444c5a98c25d48847e64e87642806dd6e7b8bfb1d46a0cb51b2472 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on ... | no | 0.315488 | bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,831,387 | 78,831,387 |
bc24b6ff7a00ad477b994ae1f94dcb7650f4b0c2 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xdc7d9d0c3d84e878f9406de24d6c943f65094e0e8ed6e2a043a0923b7f057bd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 0.300202 | bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-11-09? | 78,831,414 | 78,831,414 |
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