sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
beeadf985a5714ee530d8c028c4a12e861dbf712 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x65ec656ff2ad34f97e8489ef0faa38d86f3db9676c5c2cca8f65020ca748f70a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3678084467205839
2. Question: Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Event: will-kmx-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-25-1pt03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Cintas (... | no | 0.545208 | nfc-champion-1 | Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship? | 77,887,004 | 78,799,173 |
84f9c2b8bc35eb5122c8eacbb48a39c270dfcd67 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xecffad8c6917c58ca287eedd3314906980071a765aa2bd18cb7290ce64249447 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Event: will-kmx-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-25-1pt03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Event: will-ctas-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-24-1pt18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0 | evr-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt93 | Will Evercore (EVR) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,887,006 | 78,319,857 |
42962ceb3c318ea36ef750c79484dd025c0583e3 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xae1c480dfb891602df290a411d575e6b57312b2a2bb96c23e90750389f65eba9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Event: will-ctas-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-24-1pt18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6395778565169352
3. Question: Will the... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference? | 77,887,006 | 78,342,273 |
c433374a5cecef852616d3575f76b117a9366f95 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xb2bb74c974fec3403715a55cfcfd1954116ae7522c9054c42077d081917b6ff8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6395778565169352
2. Question: Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17694965195258408
3. Question: Will Jabil (JBL) beat its quarterly... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference? | 77,887,006 | 78,411,772 |
d44d551e0f0ea1014b693ae5ed8e41a5ab63bf4a | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x76c6d5063b3d0e1b2392cc3a8a144ea640bc1de59ec8c767b7f6fe4e56fba2d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17694965195258408
2. Question: Will Jabil (JBL) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Event: will-jbl-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-25-2pt9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Johnson &... | no | 0 | ewbc-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-21-2025-2pt34 | Will East West Bancorp (EWBC) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,935,388 | 77,973,393 |
c2576213f1341f7acea53c5023522098c6ad71c6 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xb387fb6583734bca15891c351de99beb4c0ebba3c0edda753f4c443f40f7431a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jabil (JBL) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Event: will-jbl-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-25-2pt9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: jnj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-14-2pt75 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference? | 77,935,388 | 78,342,273 |
6e72a809adf6b61ca21bbcd1d8df2f01fb1e1f11 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x8ea8c63a6ce57c6cb6e6ca3c1a3ddb6d1282f12d64da66b2b38e7f287ec60be8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: jnj-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-14-2pt75 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? | Event: afc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5964674022641681
3. Question: Will the I... | no | 0 | sam-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-23-2025-3pt61 | Will Boston Beer (SAM) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,935,390 | 78,107,620 |
d2cee7fb0e87ccf6a547c32ffea20d1cec155e89 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xbe12c09b3d457e07ba31abaa4160cb0bc1c16599dd034fdb9842d3e17bfff354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? | Event: afc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5964674022641681
2. Question: Will the Indiana Fever win the 2025 WNBA Championship? | Event: wnba-champion-527 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly e... | no | 0.15942 | afc-champion-1 | Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? | 77,973,393 | 77,973,393 |
7a75cb520e0afddac6fcbc019fccb5143f452f67 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x9849b5eb1d6c6b79589b1890c7ea3764ff4bba56c63e07ac9134c2799a1f4e24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Indiana Fever win the 2025 WNBA Championship? | Event: wnba-champion-527 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: dpz-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-14-3pt96 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will McCormic... | no | 0 | dgx-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-2pt5 | Will Quest Diagnostics (DGX) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,973,394 | 77,973,394 |
0e3bd1e0dc517a1ad1e9788df9986d816680209a | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x5220a0594238fb416ea4257a87f0b8d6302bf74e0e853023c6a14db170f2b047 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: dpz-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-14-3pt96 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: mkc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-07-0pt82 | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | csgp-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-28-2025-0pt01 | Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,150,595 | 78,238,910 |
8ae773b1be272d87cdffc32963fcdb0a6120f194 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x0cd49ce7923605eef1e0fee776973ce9d0fe20d2393f745dae57858b99a8949a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: mkc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-07-0pt82 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | ... | no | 0 | rcl-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-5pt68 | Will Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,150,596 | 78,281,015 |
adac9ddf942ca54ff09545343842d517c22c3a26 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xb12731622cf0421e8bc161cff97bd7d006380aa3a4f87c1444b2d58ad8b91a7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.18309902223226443
3. Quest... | no | 0 | jblu-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-neg0pt42 | Will JetBlue Airways (JBLU) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,150,596 | 78,294,709 |
3651e05fdfe1f579be8c7a574990d7c6fdc41503 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xfd68c1b4d0811626043f6ebed62b2a23e8c48ef37746fbe0390e3c03e7e89970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.18309902223226443
2. Question: Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4830057884896174
3. Question: Will Philadelphia Eagles be the last unbeaten... | no | 0 | googl-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt29 | Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,150,596 | 78,411,770 |
5431f3e5589b09ca58dce79c95059ac363e77e1f | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x1faa6b970beef9d80e427b5463c8fe8eef07923c361b414aca5646a677b602dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4830057884896174
2. Question: Will Philadelphia Eagles be the last unbeaten team? | Event: last-unbeaten-nfl-team-399 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Buffalo Bills be the last unbeat... | no | 0 | syy-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-1pt12 | Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,150,598 | 78,281,015 |
b2cd36e1191fec508393b2796c81061681c59e19 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xe014d2989a339f86a41ce3eb0b87a8f0a15d4506740462c8a83e6d06c6e58330 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Philadelphia Eagles be the last unbeaten team? | Event: last-unbeaten-nfl-team-399 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Buffalo Bills be the last unbeaten team? | Event: last-unbeaten-nfl-team-399 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quart... | no | 0 | ups-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-1pt31 | Will United Parcel Service (UPS) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,150,598 | 78,281,015 |
8a00bcc53eb3a1032e19ec2b6335d0c96b4f7c6a | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x79b0eb322006bcbdb3586c4cc8bdf62c79da7a37d1e2972e4450872e3fa59900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Buffalo Bills be the last unbeaten team? | Event: last-unbeaten-nfl-team-399 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-15-2pt06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Charles Sch... | no | 0 | arcc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-0pt5 | Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,150,598 | 78,294,709 |
45e7a2050a2e2b575b96f77e3c8725ad96d69922 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xc8f2144f21378f644b9811847b566303cbbf945075c2484b32255d5deef4269b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-15-2pt06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: schw-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-16-1pt21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference? | 78,150,598 | 78,411,773 |
1a89f2444adb14416c6ebda4001336c51a7ebab5 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xa840b73a86f96b0052e7420c5e7fdbfc6ddba53c0a86645640f92dde886cdf40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: schw-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-16-1pt21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | ... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? | 78,150,599 | 78,150,599 |
25b2ea1c788dab912f38715da1a0323b5387d088 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xf41d321ed59c63b6575bc6b7f16f0d9e06bcba9ed363acbdc3e32583bbb7a7c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: bac-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-15-0pt93 | Choi... | yes | 0.723815 | afc-champion-1 | Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? | 78,150,599 | 78,150,599 |
52b50613f6a8f12793bb91151c84b842bc4efe08 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x3d10b7b43b01ebe0f740990d8acb866f871cd113b0ca98780f9e517f31734636 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: bac-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-2025-10-15-0pt93 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Mattel (MAT) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: mat-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-1pt07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | what-will-bernie-sanders-say-during-the-gotv-rally-on-october-26 | Will Bernie say "Bernie" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26? | 78,150,600 | 78,150,600 |
f2e50baf0bad7976755274b554485852c0417d52 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xa0d99e77290e776bb65866c82f745746777dffbe248fae7568a8bf6f63e4ddb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mattel (MAT) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: mat-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-1pt07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? | Event: afc-champion-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3931813018800321
3. Question: Will Omnicom Group... | no | 0.539646 | nba-2025-26-3pm-leader | Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | 78,150,600 | 78,150,600 |
fb96dda91c6892efb6944d75bd94abbc180337ab | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x95c13a7302b9be37987dd6f6dcb0c6ae7662bffa1294390e53a021ad0ea2a817 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? | Event: afc-champion-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3931813018800321
2. Question: Will Omnicom Group (OMC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: omc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-21-2pt17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Hilton... | no | 0 | unh-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-2pt84 | Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,238,912 | 78,281,015 |
4b43ef3213b46e8ee4c8e69c620611b7cd86857d | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xfa77b327795ce598c432bea566514de8e89de775babc61e7812bf899e4abd1ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Omnicom Group (OMC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: omc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-2025-10-21-2pt17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: hlt-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-22-2025-2pt05 | Choice: no | ... | no | 0 | lh-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-4pt14 | Will Labcorp Holdings (LH) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,238,912 | 78,281,015 |
34d5e6a7109a1b92b7762059c9804bb223339243 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x47143c6bb8d17b64c7fb3c79222b338d8beb9bf0143d7ac3e99ce57e0c337a54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: hlt-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-22-2025-2pt05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Northrop Grumman (NOC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: noc-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-21-2025-6pt49 | Choice: no | ... | no | 0 | bbby-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-27-2025-neg0pt31 | Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,238,912 | 78,323,215 |
1e57f38eed229a3f5bbeb5bd59b391b181595d02 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x8805111ec19da5d84663eaf38c28e2430a6e90af8970a37f9bade2aaaba690c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Northrop Grumman (NOC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: noc-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-21-2025-6pt49 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Philip Morris International (PM) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: pm-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-2pt1 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.077337 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Will the Indiana Pacers make the NBA Playoffs? | 78,246,418 | 78,799,174 |
6996dea8f182789623bd892b623388d551bb5f8f | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x706be37cc674211f39a0f05c1c47e7f886d9fbcee4f0bda82684e1acad4a101c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Philip Morris International (PM) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: pm-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-2pt1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Nasdaq (NDAQ) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ndaq-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-0pt83 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | ba-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-neg2pt38 | Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,853 | 78,319,853 |
dd4b836da49a664816b5aead9f7efafcad7ce7cb | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x328b085c81fad69bbe0da269441f019207175ddd63faffcc812aff93c1d34278 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nasdaq (NDAQ) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ndaq-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-0pt83 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Chubb (CB) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: cb-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-5pt78 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question... | no | 0 | rblx-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-30-2025-neg0pt51 | Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,853 | 78,411,636 |
948006736097a0206affc4a78fe89e0ef562c54c | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xf009d7b286c70198500f37d96db0c43aa5a5ed264264f35890a57aebdd79c332 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chubb (CB) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: cb-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-5pt78 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will American Airlines Group (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: aal-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-23-2025-neg0pt28 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | otis-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-1 | Will Otis Worldwide (OTIS) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,853 | 78,411,772 |
b31eae7e964ac7fc6d28d484357786682d1b0c97 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xe29975752adf840118daf1df6ddf15f0e85bd5b2cc3a79a66ca0189c5d23c9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will American Airlines Group (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: aal-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-23-2025-neg0pt28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choi... | no | 0 | grmn-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-1pt98 | Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,854 | 78,319,854 |
87587b842675629319e848a8b81c05b55809d4d1 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xf6326bae751b61c32ec2918e44af5dac245c10875c4a034343f9a0e0473b3f6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5452084443596598
3. Questi... | no | 0 | cvna-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-1pt27 | Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,854 | 78,319,854 |
c5b34f4afcfe837915d7b8ea7139d9a5cbec0a8f | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x2e71d4add7c90b367bff34c28e1f8d089b5492739e9aa35423d4d6d6c0083bcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship? | Event: nfc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5452084443596598
2. Question: Will Evercore (EVR) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: evr-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt93 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Powe... | no | 0 | rddt-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-30-2025-0pt51 | Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,854 | 78,411,640 |
948265e2fcc5a30d05043ad3c27d473416205bac | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x056d6183aaa7ca2e421ff219f5585293109375de478d216f84b57f78af5bd17b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Evercore (EVR) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: evr-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt93 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 0.111111 | nba-win-totals-over-or-under | Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | 78,319,856 | 78,319,856 |
4f86fe5db3d23a78c20fc51d777a99a84717284c | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xe3e8574f967e628750dff67c641944a84da281ced40ffe7c76e42649e89a6887 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october... | no | 0 | nba-western-conference-champion-933 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | 78,319,856 | 78,319,856 |
3473c3fb48f0b213d0fd9d2fd9df7597dadeb4ef | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xfdf3a1ae0c405d6c515647b30080dd20936b44cdc9848fbec75e933e30b3bd27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will East West Bancorp (EWBC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ewbc-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-21-2... | no | 0 | pag-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-3pt38 | Will Penske Automotive Group (PAG) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,856 | 78,319,856 |
3040655d61aef3b37fc700bf424d0d4e8e494541 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xca60b80b2c05edcf782831381dc6988f033eef8e8e0bbd28a4e0d4babf8d688f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will East West Bancorp (EWBC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ewbc-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-21-2025-2pt34 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | ... | no | 0 | cvx-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-31-2025-1pt7 | Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,856 | 78,411,636 |
37dd0c34a56723166006134b840cc41eb13f2abc | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x04e95ff40e7494c3460683f3768e412150065fe1884a624005afa377db667c14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Boston Beer (SAM) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: sam-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-23-2025-3pt61 | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | foxa-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-30-2025-1pt1 | Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,856 | 78,411,640 |
f7517f5fa560b3e58a43c2268d09ca8cb69f0137 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x3b0f5723f7f8ff02ed9e14abea43a9cecb0aae6eacc76d42309473df4f1b4903 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Boston Beer (SAM) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: sam-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-23-2025-3pt61 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? | Event: afc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.15942028985507245
3. Question: Will Quest Diag... | yes | 0.5 | nba-worst-record-846 | Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA? | 78,319,857 | 78,319,857 |
fe92d8d8aca7ef65d8de20edf04cdf94b6755108 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xbd3915e973e50831f5a29bc3713459f20895be5dfb1dc133fa783da8af4b0257 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? | Event: afc-champion-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.15942028985507245
2. Question: Will Quest Diagnostics (DGX) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: dgx-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-2pt5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Co... | no | 0.5 | nba-2025-26-pacific-division-winner | Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? | 78,319,857 | 78,319,857 |
41b11194c6edc0e8eb141c84b9789f1cc46f0f4b | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x7c154efaa099309df60521891d8a9de4b3771f0964726da116f55d59dc620806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Quest Diagnostics (DGX) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: dgx-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-21-2025-2pt5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: csgp-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-28-2025-0pt01 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0 | abnb-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-06-2025-2pt32 | Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,319,857 | 78,751,549 |
33017b5f3ac7135915883115f4896ce1a533682b | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x0b0222c4816290418a3cc270b019e452fc5ee84e7de288cc3fac90c785262350 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: csgp-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-28-2025-0pt01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: rcl-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-5pt68 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0.064935 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs? | 78,411,824 | 78,411,824 |
61bd136b7571a49ffc376400f46fdb3329e7ce05 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x4cf389adc069a4d713e1ddb6348c96afd6df78e6bf676c7dce1780135186d90e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: rcl-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-5pt68 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will JetBlue Airways (JBLU) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: jblu-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-neg0pt42 | Choice: ... | no | 0.333333 | nba-western-conference-champion-933 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | 78,411,824 | 78,411,824 |
a28c04f02cd1ed6743b2761250434659c359a908 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xbb6988ab627c10bcdfb56471699151aa19aa7d4816e286b5d9e362f99225196c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JetBlue Airways (JBLU) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: jblu-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-neg0pt42 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: googl-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt29 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 0.75 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Will the New Orleans Pelicans make the NBA Playoffs? | 78,411,824 | 78,411,824 |
dd14bc2d202740c832e4078db45892702d734032 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x95a145d7d09de74ed82196aa31f2ac21059c92e511baa956f7dfe1eea99018e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: googl-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-2pt29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: syy-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-1pt12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Quest... | no | 0 | psky-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-10-2025-0pt35 | Will Paramount Group (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,411,824 | 78,799,171 |
86a3a85daed262145aa8672a8871ea8faf422cfb | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x00a9dd3c3174468e2cee6ffa418dbf9b7e95c09788c281f608e496b9fef7b895 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: syy-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-1pt12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will United Parcel Service (UPS) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ups-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-1pt31 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0.333333 | nba-eastern-conference-champion-442 | Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | 78,411,825 | 78,411,825 |
d34decdaa6db218c1fb8f33a219a44a81b4f89e6 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x374792eff900f5a5e3ad98f21b1061d4251bd90842bf2308aba1be18f41fc210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will United Parcel Service (UPS) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ups-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-1pt31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: arcc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-0pt5 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 0.20938 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Will the Utah Jazz make the NBA Playoffs? | 78,411,825 | 78,799,174 |
12258a0c7c8a0e1f917a7c884384890d21f09a7e | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: arcc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-0pt5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | C... | no | 0 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | 78,415,149 | 79,745,797 |
647c529eb31b36e6753b2c9e507264f7d30ac80a | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-confe... | yes | 0.71887 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | 78,799,169 | 78,799,169 |
be8b21a8a363d8cd60b044484aa0d57f23df2ce3 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x9c7eda4f825a7d4910fe6af23432c44a2f23064a865540fbb9022c7bb0d0ecba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-october-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? | Event: afc-champion-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7238149344235145
3. Q... | no | 0 | spce-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-13-2025-neg1pt5 | Will Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,169 | 78,799,169 |
c973e620500011873dafdad64818122a2b31660e | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xc81d97e06e367745e63b1b6c0e0a7ef27d73e87c32daaddb4fa703da89f98e6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? | Event: afc-champion-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7238149344235145
2. Question: Will Bernie say "Bernie" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26? | Event: what-will-bernie-sanders-say-during-the-gotv-rally-on-october-26 | Choice: no... | no | 0 | crcl-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-12-2025-0pt17 | Will Circle Internet Group (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,169 | 78,799,169 |
8cd0621e26537ba3ed149d414fda14dc95285514 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xd407fc7bc044a509b1eb3059d8a85af5493425d9edb677781dcc7a98c1554adb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bernie say "Bernie" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26? | Event: what-will-bernie-sanders-say-during-the-gotv-rally-on-october-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Event... | yes | 0.051989 | super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? | 78,799,169 | 78,799,169 |
95149e2cdfca410322fed6075eb12b9c508dbaf9 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xd88136132a2e7173cbf336b74eaa92210992900ba490f0203db90e6c7df6dd27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Event: nba-2025-26-3pm-leader | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5396458814472671
2. Question: Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: unh-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-2pt84 ... | no | 0 | bynd-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-04-2025-neg0pt48 | Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,169 | 78,882,695 |
63fd9a681d09b5bb9794485129d8797e5752ffb7 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xcb111226a8271fed0c71bb5ec1bd67b2a4fd72f1eb08466e2180b9efa99d3f32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: unh-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-2pt84 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Labcorp Holdings (LH) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: lh-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-4pt14 | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 0.215378 | fed-decision-in-december | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | 78,799,169 | 79,831,391 |
987212a8ca0c1f452e1d5d31a3ea2483cc8c27b9 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x3553f79810f95fb8b12c84ac37bb4804e6d3710baed016c273c6314780156bce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Labcorp Holdings (LH) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: lh-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-28-2025-4pt14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: bbby-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-27-2025-neg0pt31 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 0 | oxy-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-10-2025-0pt51 | Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,171 | 78,799,171 |
7742220356577a699ca98e6581f7b312959e5ff8 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x6dd1dd046d8c39fd397cdcd45c678d1475d55b318cca24dd5a935df88b4f73dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: bbby-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-27-2025-neg0pt31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0... | no | 0 | tsem-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-10-2025-0pt45 | Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,171 | 78,799,171 |
fb822a58b524b141bfdf0b616fb5e2061fdf55fd | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x3ca5f001ee024206c0ee4febfb5abcf53d415e5c90ab30ab0d6d7275a1733ec4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.07733743747595229
2. Question: Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ba-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-neg2pt38 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0 | etor-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-10-2025-0pt55 | Will eToro Group (ETOR) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,171 | 78,882,695 |
85d79635380a65a2eb364e5988fdcfd6657c9d39 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x8f1934443b26222812fe67bbd99134001e1b20402bc19295b3285851b51c4bc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: ba-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-neg2pt38 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: rblx-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-30-2025-neg0pt51 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | crsp-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-04-2025-neg1pt24 | Will CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,171 | 78,891,667 |
bd6fe6c1d383645ce9a5753f923fc4565e03a30a | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x93aa1b8080645942ff883858eced3b5537ab7c417c72348c617b95d450d032e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: rblx-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-30-2025-neg0pt51 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Otis Worldwide (OTIS) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: otis-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | gety-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-10-2025-0pt04 | Will Getty Images Holdings (GETY) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,171 | 78,891,667 |
0a01b2bb20cc9343644201140c41a458b302d091 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xf95575291f352e5a5e57830bf97ba06a469da2f52d5270eaded238cd3cdcd889 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Otis Worldwide (OTIS) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: otis-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: grmn-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-1pt98 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | chgg-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-10-2025-neg0pt08 | Will Chegg (CHGG) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,171 | 78,891,667 |
7d45fcd2403b05c743eff53ed060b398a526dba4 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x40291b53a2dc8ea0aa16e06757f48c994734b8024c621abd30726a032bb2dacc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: grmn-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-29-2025-1pt98 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: cvna-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-1pt27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Quest... | no | 0 | ewcz-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-12-2025-0pt04 | Will European Wax Center (EWCZ) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,171 | 78,969,629 |
5f283a29a4987968dee3f6c815c5568cc7ab2462 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x12736f4ff41f549e8418b136bd40ea04ee5123cd41f8cc42ff3df6b2709e8042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: cvna-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-1pt27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: rddt-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-30-2025-0pt51 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question... | no | 0 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? | 78,799,172 | 78,799,172 |
59eeccef8c72e3e8cb6982ee092ddacdb0fc6a9e | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x5871c3290a5640169ce562e8b2a6bc31748027543b139fe3ee5c7e786113800d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: rddt-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-30-2025-0pt51 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | Event: nba-win-totals-over-or-under | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 0.000167 | plby-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-12-2025-neg0pt02 | Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,172 | 78,799,172 |
4c03a5f266e71a5e12d851761c40f2df6ca6904e | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xbbb1b37d07a4457575b3210c4fdfc28ef3c8851fe660ba87b0d986aef284e53f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | Event: nba-win-totals-over-or-under | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1111111111111111
2. Question: Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion-933 ... | no | 0 | oklo-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-11-2025-neg0pt12 | Will Oklo (OKLO) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,172 | 78,799,172 |
a87ec55c354b90fabd8f1b569bfbf0d9a536482b | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xe09aba75867a7b9419a6be114728ad30afe1051e9586b5ea2e74f04f1ddc0253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion-933 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Penske Automotive Group (PAG) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: pag-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-3pt38 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 0.333333 | nba-win-totals-over-or-under | Will the Boston Celtics win more than 41.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | 78,799,172 | 78,799,172 |
e9df6e31bd615f62a6696e66305cb3fb10b28596 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xe4c5595db8dcb010f2ae062111986b4fcffbd36b83b4502c1ce588a8fe80ebd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Penske Automotive Group (PAG) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: pag-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2025-3pt38 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: cvx-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-31-2025-1pt7 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | dis-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-13-2025-1pt02 | Will The Walt Disney Company (DIS) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,172 | 78,799,172 |
b1af002d5bafba6f9de0a267dcf1b3e38318e359 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x06dd9bd00c4d8db2d220963c5e4d68a76bc9d0d5ef750dcfad601f2880bb9c07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: cvx-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-31-2025-1pt7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: foxa-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-30-2025-1pt1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | no | 0 | tbph-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-10-2025-neg0pt13 | Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,172 | 78,891,667 |
c11dab208ce8e6f06c644fc5ecbe6cd68a5e3ed7 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0xd8c64a03c894a23f8314a2591d42fa115fe834c27b50c2959a51035d15ab37ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: foxa-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-30-2025-1pt1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA? | Event: nba-worst-record-846 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
3. Question: Will the Los An... | no | 0 | pxlw-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-11-2025-neg0pt86 | Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,172 | 78,969,629 |
067517795f9d9db093260b41b219cf8312e6b273 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x6d79a0e2153940157b29a02c2bbda2fc432e3c1a89cf16229f216c92f9b6d4eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA? | Event: nba-worst-record-846 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? | Event: nba-2025-26-pacific-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0 | gamb-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-13-2025-0pt16 | Will Gambling.com Group (GAMB) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,799,172 | 79,097,613 |
de805212e182c37ea1de3328896c0e2ef2544bc8 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x777c48a36a064675a0a95112c12f54cda0b1caf9a64f7450fde31a8a8212af5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? | Event: nba-2025-26-pacific-division-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5
2. Question: Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: abnb-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-06-2025-2pt32 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | yes | 0.295248 | how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | 78,799,172 | 79,831,391 |
0afc4b423cb6771ac8eda749e80a88de37df8e03 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x820c249986044ad3ab808a4fb401f355a97eeac28d1e905ea37c849700e9cfd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: abnb-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-11-06-2025-2pt32 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0649350260752218... | no | 0.483277 | how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | 78,799,172 | 79,831,391 |
af87fdad95f18863e5e1ff666c37c4defb1af7c4 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x5e92824dd4743de2bcce538c4d7dfd103ddb8b8540b2ba2f76c6312856f94683 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06493502607522186
2. Question: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion-933 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 0 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? | 78,799,173 | 78,799,173 |
996d911f1e9d0d7ab12d091581f0c24ea2b2b889 | 0x0509d64aac136cbc253b7e208e4bacfe6c786e98 | 0x73df72ff1faf8aa9fc93020a3d93985fde0595b7779d66a41a1cc4e751fbd436 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Event: nba-western-conference-champion-933 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans make the NBA Playoffs? | Event: which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 0.333333 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs? | 78,799,173 | 78,799,173 |
458806e8602f85365d6875d208e95170c2ba3b82 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xcabb3ca6652117176afbfb02b2090248621c8fe5ac270752d188d4ed0e1dd000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13?
Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | 61,546,361 | 61,546,361 |
1d484cbe6b4a0e25b196d79fa25c7ec2fea778ab | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x956c93cf861d0ae5ef7516fb29e231b6a97b04123b239404a6e4a745419f6700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | 61,546,487 | 61,546,487 |
1a25344fc68dec91001f804672a639a98f79cc96 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x41b696cdb0a8929544102ba8ed76c114d4f5ccf556fdef1c23460b300de7d90f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the debate have less than... | yes | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Will the debate have less than 50 million viewers? | 61,732,410 | 61,732,410 |
feb02741c36de026af8869644a4ac3de84b8faa8 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xcd58a78bb23eea4a85a4237f575e1290e627cdbbe2d8c3d2c33cefb3645ba1c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Will the debate have 55-60 million viewers? | 61,732,412 | 61,732,412 |
6688c8475a26c4c3f940cd99b029a2f4f3ede679 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe2127ee3fa8877279db939ef14c52e4b79cab02948b5b70ea2df174f324b2411 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 0.00008 | how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Will the debate have 70-75 million viewers? | 61,732,415 | 61,732,415 |
60f7f5a4c7da7bd02d7a035d22e4082049168d01 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x259f963447ac9431024ed493cd553fe69a026771bd82852f85548e05b96cc0f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 200-224 times? | 61,741,735 | 61,741,735 |
fbb289ac2f55f1f9a42465e12ce1a690404ffba1 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x070b4f337043eae08fc70f561f4f58261e40dd042cd885528622c18fd5771387 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 150-199 times? | 61,762,284 | 61,762,284 |
2f3b99a4b4379f314b6cff3b5c69fac16552ef99 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xefc8187a5c4e994a5c224a47dc4774db5706a70352f6995b2c79af45a0f7dc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | 61,765,359 | 61,765,359 |
e2335706665222fe264736667ce2f04677f35928 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x211c677a15b4369bccce4606f43d58659a2ac90b4dddbfc74fe48f945e7d4d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Trump tweet 60-69 times this week? | 61,786,245 | 61,786,245 |
a0d15a9d82aec953a716698af9b6880a67b80d08 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x59dd76530e2e056433a1dabc1e6cb0692d67cad3f05c5a2ba353e19b5c860c87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Trump tweet 35-39 times this week? | 61,786,245 | 61,786,245 |
ca95b39cd2ecd5e577cbb1b24a9f7f4d18aec4fe | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x6137a0c37d45922e03c2e32b0698885ac8a8666761c0be5765420b572a2dd325 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Trump tweet 25-29 times this week? | 61,786,245 | 61,786,245 |
39b8f0f86362ef9508b6d7b9bd0cb669390b2b6f | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x951f02543bfbb356257088743ba8123eea68ec570ad2be5bad9872a12a566f37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 0.333333 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 225-249 times? | 61,786,245 | 61,786,245 |
83e49c27de4fa7ae41f16afd2eee91d5e60c3f95 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xc7b2b657bb93f14f3aea1d986da4cb5cee3ecfd90685d284cf6396c97612a17f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 September 13? | 61,786,245 | 61,786,245 |
f7e2415a9a797a9f9626d87274fb63dd19a52e17 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xcaa7d7cfda2bdb41e17aaf3032c93a27b7af84925b1cfee08d580112c2a93c49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times? | 61,786,245 | 61,786,245 |
3ec54d203dd688e554794ca6722a9f853342edab | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xf0608b3f65cf6ffa2280c706cd8ab5fd8e3207ca0c31a217552f1b822e35e075 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times? | 61,786,245 | 61,786,245 |
a4954a313be28dbd825c0d37001de4e46cdd567a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x81be14c638ca78581f855e3c9ccd9ffe26f9672801aeafd86ed0466de729a56d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Will Poland win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | 62,214,718 | 62,214,718 |
e3d698688b946181c281ec072c90da37013717ba | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x15938de3b59b10939e90e1863c9051b5cea80bfb862da1facb5079c4dfc0f5ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Will England win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | 62,214,721 | 62,214,721 |
a8ce5aed1bc641332ee1878ae409571bf405fb9e | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x07e2a512c9717aaddcd5491118fa8c4c2752f171fd0a31958133065f122fbfa0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Will Germany win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | 62,214,722 | 62,214,722 |
75d890375772552c684372b4721e1dbd2d0d7a9f | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x559eecbbacb3b1ae4657c3acf3e1742429d53670640d80d19d0b7ea03a5d8c09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | womens-chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Will Germany win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad? | 62,327,394 | 62,327,394 |
1cc306f557144dbf1ad53dc23655d760dca70420 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x0865015f60dc3bb59b5767a0087acae0a407c46020566b4e55068f8b76c2fa58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Will Iran win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | 62,388,959 | 62,388,959 |
a0e0433d6c8ed75555b570735fe502e80828f333 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xf58e18ac80905269bd172563b837670f7318df9e7a651086ba7d57baa8ade87d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times? | 62,457,573 | 62,457,573 |
c9ad385795af25c888f1d285f0534d92b6f833e9 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x0cb7f3390aed14a44ec66bd20390d5008644dad57aeaa4bc9b1fd1c941946b9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? | 62,503,147 | 62,503,147 |
a78d0ef20fc2ff6c81bf23b6f2598611034f542a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x402f16f30f04998e06986d57743107a36ae2dc1b56d3db6cb26813365ed73db8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 0 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Will Elon tweet 125-149 times? | 62,531,772 | 62,531,772 |
f59e9c74a35d0356c6089ba1ce8ce4620d4b30ea | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x9a22e4c575aaecc6ecdea5e0678bd94c2d58808169fef4990f0dfdaaec7bcf43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 0.805495 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times? | 62,622,992 | 62,622,992 |
e41ac9a286ff02f5bab24b1ef188b65496b3bc65 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xa8eb864b0805f28c627f7f22a94a339d93db4f799eedd906261c486887dfbe8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi? | 62,813,505 | 62,813,505 |
ab41a5f3e16f7f9f577d95ed051c268da3ed9b33 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb865810ca0bcd7a47ae1bdda9e83b0562c1edf3fa68334b6419adcf43479e00c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18? | 63,229,473 | 63,229,473 |
ac7e7685adc0a952bf2602df9abd22fa89cc99ba | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xed84add8d13617e2888b269c2ffa54c1a0341feef81d8205fa6218b819ab0824 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18? | 63,229,473 | 63,229,473 |
a32ec548f92f0c9b744e3537f255eca18bd3b90c | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe82f38c1b2ac991c81accf576bf73949f53b17d53d9c361d0bb6098e845887fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 0.064985 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | 63,311,317 | 63,311,317 |
0a8fbc4a3251149dafd537c4cd0e6a199a949193 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,398,162 | 63,398,390 |
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