sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
cd45c55a69914fc3e91a043317c99440d8c66236 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x502a01f1d76b6384c9f774734409bc2b2e83d1d1ee608b02f1bc07958fabbfc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | no | 0.033529 | bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,831,422 | 78,831,422 |
7227dda24d388619c56abba9e787770af722a666 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xcf07e94b3a74e1860fec28a6fd6f88321863d037ed2f8664cb259b21ff860a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 0.688066 | bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,831,428 | 78,831,428 |
3c59bf6a072cff7a86ab3bfc7541c32188c661a8 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x523588cd1f7abe3b7dfd4d6de8c9096b725b0d00e120c1fc32878b7c9d6663ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 1 | mex-san-pac-2025-11-09 | Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2025-11-09? | 78,831,757 | 78,831,757 |
c9bc426eaa78fcbf627e89638111d55ba49e087f | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xdf8636bec29393bae223fb910255971b483df157075a3192906a3a684f11f7dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | no | 0.151671 | bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Will CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC end in a draw? | 78,831,763 | 78,831,763 |
f6e597fde698be7535b8830cd735d9969a8e7d0a | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x05d112bd24807718de4266d3ac0a7520bccc4da01363a70b9a2709a2e2b8968d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 0.999818 | arg-tig-est-2025-11-09 | Will CA Tigre win on 2025-11-09? | 78,832,177 | 78,832,177 |
7ccb090f3e0b4e07b76f018a5dd850cebf076049 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x016888a3ef08c5f80d1e0d76e8a2913cfaab989d14bef4db4ef84b4ce98b3bb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | no | 1 | arg-tig-est-2025-11-09 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-09? | 78,832,232 | 78,832,232 |
c49224cb1df03aec4f1e43bbbfd6cabe017b4611 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xeb9e9e74be69e9602da94e354bba2f0f1909a1df302d91ed4bcec6154de98f3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | no | 0.841458 | arg-cas-iac-2025-11-09 | Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-11-09? | 78,832,239 | 78,832,239 |
1e09996b0ad08ca7aee29a17d38c4b47325d61a1 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x65808db629ba1f9217c3b78579bc1b85a78b6777d5704733fe8d0c5baae49fbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 1 | arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-10? | 78,888,655 | 78,888,655 |
70b438b0aa9b8d6cd01631da47d15b7b7847209a | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x5dc3862c4fecf6485669f7ad9c002a799bd060651d1cb01a187a4d0a717fd427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | no | 1 | arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? | 78,888,662 | 78,888,662 |
07caae5c7c175f182938e4b58b99db766f177d81 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xf3c7425b3bf776f49384095441591dc10552fa446952de66c1a6b3909211ce66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 0.390074 | mex-san-pac-2025-11-09 | Will CF Pachuca win on 2025-11-09? | 78,888,669 | 78,888,669 |
dc446ef305c4f8102e1bc5eb590b67e5461e1def | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xa27e61accc8e4c64a1ea78fc99f30dea56f3ad950f2634174d1e75aac7982509 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 0.964984 | bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-09? | 78,888,676 | 78,888,676 |
8073bf444082f004e2bbe44dd6858d5ed5cfb0c4 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xf21b0c83bb22b35c2f6a5e2ec473307d4b4ab74c6e432dec659100aceef89c7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Will Mirassol FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? | 78,910,074 | 78,910,074 |
e338461e80c6a02521f2a47856ea9bd1bcc0f4cd | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0x56d06a6b9cadb5a1c13e174482cac9a2caffd45610dc71938cf804796d08beb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | no | 1 | por-ben-cas-2025-11-09 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw? | 78,910,083 | 78,910,083 |
3bcdffe9243293c5d646cfa6546463784b54e605 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xc723359f958c9f10a9975deaba5841ce87c2510244065f0028154eb74f9cc50e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | fritz | 1 | atp-musetti-fritz-2025-11-10 | ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz | 78,910,103 | 78,910,103 |
8dda70775ba880a28e153314d5b13f25b925c5b0 | 0x2a5f3ef8885d58f0f1aed580f2bfec5d773d7c29 | 0xb75f07adcfd0e4f498e57c483c736b5856aaa77f0d61bb73478b4ebd17190656 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? | Event: arg-ban-ald-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09646339264156674
2. Question: Will Fortaleza EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? |... | no | 0.999935 | por-scb-mor-2025-11-09 | Will SC Braga win on 2025-11-09? | 78,910,125 | 78,910,125 |
517f4fc85aca7ec5d6469e3ee85269d76ab377ff | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x2758b209d0ce348873b100c1205c2e3c2449222f211e4e9857e29e3071a65fad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?
Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,951,778 | 63,951,778 |
297122444e1d35fb98d053c88ea498d8545ec568 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x294fd2771d72317ab0888137193aac7dc90decd924cfcd69923edbc28d23d581 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's ch... | yes | 1 | minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,956,603 | 63,956,603 |
ed44242d86cec6c27ce94287c733e20625c10775 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xbe4f88565882170b13a66967bdad614a62c63b025e150e347d10553c58575287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | 63,962,979 | 63,962,979 |
6441f89b4983304809c8adf7d682532e965663d1 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x1c4a876957f0c70fb3a579d714c1c125bf14bcc0a6d47073115a1855cd4dd9ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,966,841 | 63,966,841 |
4001b5844e3d1b87b989f28977c50f885c195af1 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,966,841 | 63,966,841 |
f86ce11f713ccddf521bc8152e15ed4fb2910788 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xac7162f96876ea602d984de6f9800b8a4b8a45897e798a7630d9e004ae5b9a0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,195,256 | 64,195,256 |
c62d89025ae4607b7d39391fbb77254fb7bd9498 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xb17631413f217b33763f011a61990dd420f760af13bba6cdccd68c52b2b72d4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,195,256 | 64,195,256 |
473475542ef2307f7d6f37c59b1e4ecbb93aeb07 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 64,354,864 | 64,354,864 |
d08db7552db68d6dc2ad836d35829a890ca4d4a7 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x9df4efa8764eec4d1bd089e8598447d32408951ad502f483eecae2e0a19480bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | 64,653,141 | 64,653,141 |
e77fc665ad5bb550d16be71a406acf8923b579fe | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xc1a4830eef6f60d9e0f05ecb5aa81b11d7d361e1a869c0138219840af849a986 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | 64,653,141 | 64,653,141 |
bf7543d1046730a5d2bd9552351a56329ec3041a | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x2e3f199ecca55910e28d0ffb6fcec358c63e148cb9a09810caa3a48b81e9dcf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | iceland-legislative-election | Will the Centre Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | 65,056,689 | 65,056,689 |
765e6d10bb87b25b10a465805b266bb7a6eb2326 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x42659126f4c72922009cbc7f4d88fe1dcfaf8ef21dcc1212c2604fa0cd636452 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | romania-parliamentary-election | Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | 65,056,689 | 65,056,689 |
2f4379c72148339250ac964d1fff9f7322ae9ae8 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xead601f91addd1755226f3848e74bf243d184076d23cbf1941072a27f0421020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | romania-parliamentary-election | Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | 65,056,689 | 65,056,689 |
3316c515c67bce5fe638aedcc801599cfe24f415 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x589f93dc90c16fb66d78bb89133efcad7a5b49dbc0d51251225cabb7851dfec3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | nba-cup-winner | Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Cup? | 65,357,277 | 65,357,277 |
193b3861b5da447e549a2f176c05ba48f3be5cfc | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xc9245f04f26a1cbe765e5b80868f113c0da34319895075f6de57db3cde097609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | next-senate-majority-leader | Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 66,275,074 | 66,275,074 |
eb18fea999b8ce51512f45af1b42e0a730ff5ef9 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x378c1a4dd829a4407e59513089bce961cb21e45d5b6e7d99114da332862a1d44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | croatia-presidential-election | Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia? | 66,667,821 | 66,667,821 |
127c1a633c1d9ed6660c9d14137cbed41b193bd8 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x8539d07b7429b8b911c2bcbfc9bdb0b39f839196d8726029d93f618d74f66252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-dnc-chair | Will Ben Wikler be the next DNC chair? | 67,504,388 | 67,504,388 |
f27aa51cd0e06d73d2f3882a4f1050d4a1dfa0f8 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xf7bc789e51b3ba8358e0e5d39eb4b74163145366de08e4d64234eb8e2a89023c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-dnc-chair | Will Martin O'Malley be the next DNC chair? | 67,504,388 | 67,504,388 |
23b26f7606aa3073edd773b54ba4e57da04e46b2 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xae6dab898b0531faf72bf9f09517538249131850cfe48b309f7f91124411c380 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | 70,931,522 | 70,931,522 |
173578838e6b1a59b98d9a7f46cf21f749d76f76 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xacca589559453d60180cac1b03aa72fcb8c515d39ae2d9a66afc70041f4a2d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | 71,078,016 | 71,078,016 |
4f4937df9f331d64dd7e6b72d654eec8877279d8 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xa778b19a9cf053b7e6da11b9ac84b91dda7dbf08973a49af138b1523c805e43f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-2 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on May 2? | 71,082,157 | 71,082,157 |
27c92526deb3d1309e1a7eb5074df777f857a746 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xcee52c1dc6554437ba3df84a03fcbc763a04780f0333353defdf8487d1d44947 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-2 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2? | 71,082,157 | 71,082,157 |
71d7c698710b3cda4ac3f04d28cbbf8a811e34a3 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xc0e885cb9eda565246a82090fa65afc77c868d98653f334250641241459f5ccd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | uel-bod-tot-2025-05-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08? | 71,303,235 | 71,303,235 |
8c62344b566e93cfc0b5a0c5fdcf0dfd85963d0d | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xe30f91d3cf3c83cad45cc102b31568d190dc8606ceb5f986d79223caa47848d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Will the next pop be elected in 7 or more days? | 71,303,235 | 71,303,235 |
538190f8e4c4e370d07889a3cf70793f4d2cacf6 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xc4f41459ea9dd8bf14bfd96c0f7733fff8d94e63330b87a010008b0cff5e5e16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-9 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 9? | 71,357,801 | 71,357,801 |
8c353d97f7a486adf5bb9536b7193d062c527a6e | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xf211a2877117660d9369cd9941a9f88451fc39c26457a9d3e2e4baa8d7794664 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-9 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 9? | 71,357,801 | 71,357,801 |
d84842630bf4aaf0b58890ea3c160248aeae0f0e | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x4d16d1b804bc73a6a9c34e285c3a1ff2194ed096279cc44cdb94429cd29f9f69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16? | 71,677,859 | 71,677,859 |
60a8f2db914c86e07e7c56ecfb27eb4a9f6d4311 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xde62d4df95d7ce1ba3267ae8595afb8738f9d64219ba28f43ac6603b2f163448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16? | 71,677,859 | 71,677,859 |
fe0a5785a6d36741dcf110003e14488abf957200 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xfbafe9652e2a601483617d45a093325f66b3b574bd710392f352bde60bb0c30d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16? | 71,677,859 | 71,677,859 |
326ab295fcb0216b68b035e2656fe0074e1b8882 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xfbc3f0e1025f2bd28f620ff23e0e114ec422bf3f858190140eaa2f3a41f7102d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16? | 71,677,859 | 71,677,859 |
497b4e6966dc6af35e66a53e9c75c99281859716 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xbb0f16a89c111199d1f9446238d40b9ed53e71020cf890f097ece2d5e7d29174 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-16-23 | Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? | 71,883,001 | 71,883,001 |
7c4c2a851979b49cb67fc80dec876f2da7ba6056 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x5627b155cb35242d3f0138795ccc5c81adc38198153ce7a101a2f7e70b5534fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-23 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on May 23? | 71,918,147 | 71,918,147 |
2148e8a91951911f7864705d9b5802b99da148ba | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x0b7f551c8fa663009d1ebd6c45884e6c0099132de110b3cff0c0f5a2af1eb5a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-30 | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30? | 72,115,506 | 72,115,506 |
3a64b4f35a1f11cb11b7304c7c068fae00d3a7d0 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x1c1265f10fc89de4b9c46d0f98310cc28dc9ee5b541b3ea525671a839d500657 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-30 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on May 30? | 72,206,306 | 72,206,306 |
35ee6ed7fa08306becd9d2f98f32b4957d71ccbb | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x915dd04ff4743e2dcbb2e5d1b11945ae2303fd4562cdafb48638c307dff6588a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Dem... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-30 | Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on May 30? | 72,206,306 | 72,206,306 |
c4dc8d1184354229d7bdc042946954114da37ca5 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x3c721bf2f5848dbdc7cadc5f80f13ceb1f48dccbb6c1569142a2da13b3d659e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jake Paul win h... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? | 72,273,828 | 72,273,828 |
eaafc7e0d05e45a380afd4c1a76e177e2c811322 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Demo... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 72,273,828 | 72,273,828 |
8f556de3765d9a1a2058c9de6720b3df98754898 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xa51ab719d0c14cfab28cbe61b645cbbb975faf927d2ac527037f91c36aa245a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | Event: pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 66-68%? | 72,306,763 | 72,306,763 |
4f434bf0d467419a20061e1780d55e9b9c75a0fd | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xdbc167f00fe58d5a9ef51857aaa9236615a6f8b1b747ffb067c9597735837cdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | Event: pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | Event: pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-0? | 72,424,552 | 72,424,552 |
4390f878b5f5c9369e0226ef2efb0b2577aff733 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x7f719f7ae2c95e7d4ed2059126ab05aa231d301ee232ce8c18fb08e2f32bf658 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | Event: pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Centre Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | Event: iceland-legislative-election | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-june-6 | Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 6? | 72,487,076 | 72,487,076 |
a783deb0082b3c163613166d5f4eb4771228efc9 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x8dd221ac652868ae3b9d2ae0dffee3c3369a5e7f4055f28a22da488819df6b61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Centre Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election? | Event: iceland-legislative-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-june-6 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on June 6? | 72,487,076 | 72,487,076 |
6df747a97b24012c8a49711336ddd0b3edfb415b | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0xfa259087670a74a62cf429ca8c6af35faeffe31a09933c2be6d878222836ccd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-june-6 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on June 6? | 72,487,076 | 72,487,076 |
cdfb99a3dd6b5b7a27d7fb976945812e45c7e100 | 0x2ab546baec1fbf0c35212e5723f6bb6bc61d1d6e | 0x9e8423c3a0642e283ebaf940fba1d659d8f68efc1e9098ea5bbcf605edd601d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will John Thune be the n... | no | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-0? | 72,555,216 | 72,555,216 |
d6d4185756126a5995673c315d503a8ffa7f3b5a | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x4bba7dc4e938ebf31b36e66f87442c6c788c1d7a2a065f8007f0f7ca1dd773be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend?
Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | 59,938,779 | 59,938,779 |
582c1e1e3d0f361c0f8b95677fa45f8bb5e1ce2f | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xea4f844e900758d5a3f931918fd505dd165329c2fd9425530de656d864916f10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend?
Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office
Pre... | yes | 1 | deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | 60,102,737 | 60,102,737 |
db9b05d9d3c40bec12aa52a57dff2ec906edbf66 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x3d6f372abcc89ec22a26524e317ea4102a2f93ae3c59c01513eae054e2a9c573 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18? | 63,336,895 | 63,336,895 |
933dbfec3a704f7a4bd2bc1200011adc4e52dd81 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x637447eb20eca235ebfe1030965d0d9d09bb56ed2af1e854b7a872d9a0aea60e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18? | 63,336,895 | 63,336,895 |
9d7c747883b1cb2e27af0bf746826fbc06915f7b | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x83f76dac7a6de6a86ee95a6935deef98a00dd4eae9faa38c4cb8e788243d9d27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18? | 63,336,895 | 63,336,895 |
2a6d18d3e34e0ab69211496d35adf67586f9b16c | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x88cc38fbee2b91f6bdee817890f17c4bf7a69c45c69720e896e242b79eab87d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 October 11-18? | 63,336,895 | 63,336,895 |
3e0b67a687c2e60e9a9d6b37b651c5a1d0abb864 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xb865810ca0bcd7a47ae1bdda9e83b0562c1edf3fa68334b6419adcf43479e00c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18? | 63,336,895 | 63,336,895 |
d5ced75af4d350fbff7bcd71ebf24341c7b84903 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xed84add8d13617e2888b269c2ffa54c1a0341feef81d8205fa6218b819ab0824 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18? | 63,336,895 | 63,336,895 |
4260f0dbcac26094fcbd2ce31d7b2bdc0ec36611 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xb612c57a5a5ab08bedc57d72b6cfd239df8707a6c9274a28075fdc6fd2db8692 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25? | 63,506,932 | 63,506,932 |
bfad4950b73f769b6875e086ec36a8a448673b77 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xc713e8ff2c9cb86a3ac37a2e92666ef62ebb89093a29b0f6e2c43f345a68eda6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-25? | 63,506,932 | 63,506,932 |
4704dc3504a01b7ecbadd431e71cde0e02c66266 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xd4fd35481eb4c60699eed13e4e1520ab3da9db2fee36239d2e2b5fcd3c0de853 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25? | 63,506,932 | 63,506,932 |
2b82a58aa148f69729020271f41b2a97f38e984b | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xd529689ce9e496343e05974fe5460bc003da72435b8ced55d0c1dac55046bee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25? | 63,506,932 | 63,506,932 |
57f18bb0cad3282eb02ecd091be1ae4f41ddb456 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xe70a2ad7933bcc2de3e20a45315e4faef915a26cb98d15d754be2a722d2ac1ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times October 18-25? | 63,506,932 | 63,506,932 |
04638c55944f24eae8aaa284d43670fe1e8a7117 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x285e4aabc9c3c3234e3bd8f1e35aecde7dbb7cec879a53b231a2bd78831a3c63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,907,525 | 63,907,525 |
ce7326c15e1f7bd790dad658e50aa813327bdf58 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xbd2479aa97e37c9ca4539852c8b5a2a69c4c4632d39ab856f0fe069ecfe96a43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,907,525 | 63,907,525 |
87ff1797fe24c775f295556dae7b4d1bf65d1d6e | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xbebaf12706064df61110522ba7906f8f87de70961a265caff06551f4e9ad33e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | venom-the-last-dance-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend? | 63,907,525 | 63,907,525 |
0b1eff83a8d66adca245f44d4fc830604699a70c | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xd5b2c2e8db66aa4ad79a790a5ea52a3cc1affdc37846cf4c3fcd2d334f37d4b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | venom-the-last-dance-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend? | 63,907,525 | 63,907,525 |
98f10b26a20cd5aead425bdf9dfd73a87037510f | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x009f3196eb90f47b7eb23e1cc0b06759806df193ec58a0dab081eaabbe8a1310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ohio-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
cebcd348c92e3ef8e24c6285cda15ea99b0ada8e | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x24ace0c29dc2c801992ea6b7c795d3e7c4f2ad40343bc9f0becef694b2ef197f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | california-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win California Presidential Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
9cbdbbce09e5facd694404f58b2bf57d9ba13825 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x294fd2771d72317ab0888137193aac7dc90decd924cfcd69923edbc28d23d581 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | minnesota-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
d53330cfc832be5c309a84dc4053a6014250a15d | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x883f6ac0468d3449161454db37acb951bad5b55a7752bc2dd007e40356cee353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | texas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
5d8d5b464f5de0714eff7dc1db5f6ee5db850243 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x896ed831aef8b7210f9d100c9ea42e41eae0575c9b6ad0f1fef26620f48d22f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | texas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
761ba0bc7591504c3fbea05937440f41bc799338 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x8cdce5c6fbdbade86234d95f4e665e2499780ac4c67ab64d0e5b5c26e029d381 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | hawaii-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Hawaii US Senate Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
1e1066ee229b38ddbf0b9bc0668c3a3c80d9bc7b | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xb0a06b05d49947a302d0c3648add3b6d6660380de6bdb6b79f0007f18daf3adb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
9952c1ffb881a2c6ed3fecf982298f6c032a4ada | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xbe4f88565882170b13a66967bdad614a62c63b025e150e347d10553c58575287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
9310d3ec87a413e7b6565399370eb5a975618451 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xc68fce919a7f2836e607b4775777f7bbd9e995d1e6d764408ed0350802abb3db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | alaska-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Alaska Presidential Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
8915aed01707905c7ddfe7b0401d287f13b679ea | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xe0673ab015b7cee314e91600e7bfc7f5b45b9c8096279937a65027a228efb35b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | kansas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Kansas Presidential Election? | 65,015,678 | 65,015,678 |
ef4e1b4f3a207f6033b8b3737c229bd35145327d | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x0a573d0d2e1f013707b2b6b5429b35db371fdb31f67909ed719abb381b1de6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
89f830091f02c7aca337b4d2c2e66ad85d4e5f67 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x253d32feaaee1bc6eaa4e147470d33c2f4638224eae188960653486e5bf658db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | washington-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
25d9b86f76de3217efbc71404484b46380628def | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x28f66bed374181b08fa7b7eead51d69a4a1af868f8e7ff6944c649822d76aa03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14 | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
6d39c81c4bff0d25d66c1da74b898e89db445052 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x2dcaf14b767e1b22b18d46a91633435f8e724a7e8b75cfa51280b499e4f1cdcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' <$38m Opening Weekend? | Event: furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | oregon-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Oregon Presidential Election? | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
2e167d1696cd1e7789d83540989e5edc29d36b5b | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x436b731d219f6da8caf7147d02d2a18e31ca770154225aef63c52f632e36e564 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | colorado-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Colorado Presidential Election? | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
f9188aa0afbdaaf8edce1be35b7336c66c276684 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x5f71c0396254199eca645d987c489df1690e6a42eefc9c5b377b7bf68f7ee926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times Oct... | no | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
270c491a121e7ce448538d10cca21537fce78265 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x768eb43d1b7a745e0df1bb6050ab54aa3975fbbde6e23f4aa04cb527f5ffed2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 October 11-18? ... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4 | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
4b583fd70ad898f9ffc84b66062757294442d7d2 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x846be8b2fc96f1033d715aeedcbcb7459945abef9b87599a9e02c27ee1c66b7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18? ... | yes | 1 | colorado-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
cace8e836382dba9645c98c03e53a3649c7143b6 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xcec7958225b06aa2464a72d934ddcc9b66bb6f35ad065010496d8db92de412a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | alaska-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
541e1a23422faf7a7a54dfcbd4cc4ac22833f8cb | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0xfa5a7ff654fb16fbbba2891bb08888d7b876581fed0e09c108919a8ec9732f18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25? | Eve... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 65,015,680 | 65,015,680 |
f440fda8d2c0003782bc906ab0d2d6eedb57d801 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x1652ed7c8396de76eb1c18c202e75def313f836c8184f52ae4236ca26990f115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-... | no | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | 65,015,684 | 65,015,684 |
d2ef787cd3dbabe3b36c81ef2532bd0eddc42ad2 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x1d372482a1170a5591237fb8881b1cfe25a1caf69adf58035d406530eb39556d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Octobe... | yes | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 65,015,684 | 65,015,684 |
f07a6a181a6f8489c838353629fc9bf814e1c844 | 0x2b0014a91833883596473f7a43f74b14d5259a53 | 0x4dd3a1104c66ef647b0d7468a9be755e7601d841cf19ac43fdfd1a28bc753d5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times Octobe... | no | 1 | kansas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Kansas Presidential Election? | 65,015,684 | 65,015,684 |
f2ad408807c7d6340ba93bfc8f2e2eee0a3ab240 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x365f882c1df56dfc4025cc7c60a9215ef08a187628f0b12c25ee4352f164c79b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | 67,220,033 | 67,220,033 |
e15535730956b67aeb35dc9af0fa56558e78625e | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0xc6d9d54ef3b7079eab885fa6b93fe3c9daf972058a0ce50f3918fe2cada2397a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica?
Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the targ... | yes | 0.128713 | ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Will Juventus beat Benfica? | 67,404,843 | 67,404,843 |
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