sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bc09008751d5fecc26cf763ae24d4b34dec29996 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x5dfb31b9b81911892708617f383c8bb2a81b8ed1406e29b3d00bbbe9a39f654e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
Target market:
Q... | no | 0.001985 | ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05? | 68,793,679 | 68,793,679 |
7087baa4b73d06376ce096a2622c4d7766acc87c | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0xa140b022455d5b876703d6bb535fa703a160f98ddf57731a95cba405bf963b84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Will Benfica win on 2025-03-05? | 68,793,679 | 68,793,679 |
ad74be887830ae771d66971cbd0d900508735e62 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0xa60691341da78992d359a056e980994d290bf5964c2bac4d076c1cbbd5b871ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.007231 | ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | 68,793,679 | 68,793,679 |
680b64c594fd15415c5e3c3f6e16c0c82380fcb8 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x80bfbfba1a642809b7dadc738f960b3ca19fef3b0c0f6b8f00670b268f6416f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.034301 | bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $83000 on Mar 14? | 69,122,147 | 69,122,147 |
77cf69c9002f09a6233aff2cf4991b3a58aa752b | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0xb043bdb69cf3469512e8ef87b31f09c73f3c84aa092640c25454903f3f3a5247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.012658 | uel-ran-fen-2025-03-13 | Will Rangers win on 2025-03-13? | 69,122,147 | 69,122,147 |
6a593f4399922e866954cd69de22d305d06ab9d3 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0xcd33309875ef0f39b31680db8a5df601cc785f0e93b167df2a47d89ccc25d2b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.006211 | uel-oly-bod-2025-03-13 | Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-03-13? | 69,122,147 | 69,122,147 |
08f8958ad3689370c3b69b76c1f088e4f7ec21cc | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x2591ccaf7578ac9489351e825f5d20a7367322c1f871f5f5bb36b42f7fa17439 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.027778 | la-liga-barcelona-vs-atltico-madrid | Will Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid end in a draw? | 69,209,905 | 69,209,905 |
7376b8f777c3ca3050ae99a4f2b8ba51c4665f44 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0xad23d40fa3ae83711bddc1cb9857a1a38e63a33234bb9a8540b25bc01d44b56a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.003984 | la-liga-barcelona-vs-atltico-madrid | Will Atlético Madrid beat Barcelona | 69,209,905 | 69,209,905 |
3816f2d81222cca7e5b64448d9177a173f7e4ef6 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0xd96b3a8e5e233d30229424f8ab9dcd97e19e45631787a9e4cea6e43975465569 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.006623 | la-liga-barcelona-vs-atltico-madrid | Will Barcelona beat Atlético Madrid? | 69,209,905 | 69,209,905 |
35e2953dee00e36bd01cd45a194c3d2a5ebf5a0d | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x2ddcca5c271e142640c4045a7fef3cce3db669941bf4a61ab17d700314379cc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-28-apr-4 | Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4? | 70,142,578 | 70,142,578 |
a3f27f1e2cb6c73054301b18f007b982e36d8f68 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x300dfa307a256c358e1ff288f22315f008539539387998a4eee1bfe94f427d28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | ucl-bay-int-2025-04-08 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? | 70,142,578 | 70,142,578 |
23c6311d40eaf43b379b7761ade82b3d3c07db45 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x9206e002f8eab0af66b507998149415f0de8e3d4b3e64a0de2e93fa4fb1f1814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.020408 | epl-che-tot-2025-04-03 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-04-03? | 70,142,578 | 70,142,578 |
042ecc8d7454615559fc89e2cb96961729ed8b38 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x2354da210f79afb5c7b74a9e3376647ab20bb6a307485cbc3ffb28b3998a7a5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.00189 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on April 16? | 70,408,652 | 70,408,652 |
86d6631fafc4026a172aa103a07650de1803908f | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x3d3519aa0d4eadba4b40a5da13a9c0c0c009c73e5ea1bc40c558f834cf48f4f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.01484 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on April 18? | 70,576,098 | 70,576,098 |
61097247b09d7214a77a0328dfd7f96245b995d6 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x636d2d1f87f28645f1f107e0048987fdf19b302c961ff7864be7ef5d768ca69b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.002278 | epl-ful-che-2025-04-20 | Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | 70,576,098 | 70,576,098 |
a33d70921b6c97a2d6b11402330f46319db0481c | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0xead3f96c8646e65ac0651d9ba3ae8a7d01202626be2c83c1f7772458b8eb5435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | no | 0.050584 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on April 18? | 70,576,098 | 70,576,098 |
6171d01589d5bacb2e90588a1e4f2475eefcd187 | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x33020d538a99b4b183c38b9bd2ab2ebfb1622a6b76f417755c95bfd08f3bbb41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.02359 | epl-tot-not-2025-04-21 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-21? | 70,659,851 | 70,659,851 |
d02df375bc55c3fe2946451f8dfd32e2fee50b3b | 0x2b499466cbad24473fbdfa629d40aa2a590f65d3 | 0x351f04fa7086de70edff5334ed8cd330a49c5a1aec539595910b0127e8e860be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London 41°F or below on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-benfica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12871291718068267
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.052631 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on April 22? | 70,659,851 | 70,659,851 |
fefb89f43327db3acb65ac901f1b0106c7519fad | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,953,781 | 70,953,781 |
cd000bf14d67caecc85f7f181d6a8160a727dce3 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xacca589559453d60180cac1b03aa72fcb8c515d39ae2d9a66afc70041f4a2d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?
Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner
Predict the user'... | yes | 1 | australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | 71,078,312 | 71,078,312 |
2b24f4f22f668b4dc10fcc96d83814a28af40f5a | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x333d038196d2d4201177a6dac568920ab2993a29ec8389de809351560ef794ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-bou-2025-05-03 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03? | 71,078,564 | 71,078,564 |
4844dd35197d44ab7f0ecccf18fed38f1823e981 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xc9419f62294dc0af13db4530a49c3608ee2e4d603e753de30aa5f192b81fb747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Europe? | 71,282,513 | 71,282,513 |
d57a4a926a0101b94c502294ed52915dd5eaf93a | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xde901512d9ad47b18796e3bdff5180eaee60d733e994685ace6ea45de3914f3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | 71,966,029 | 71,966,029 |
fa8a35ddf869a7d153c3cd933565a10fcf91ab5f | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x6d2f4940373a13567e53de6fd2015186c298249329a5f03771a6b160f5e4a7d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | 72,204,306 | 72,204,306 |
e2f36cf539caa5e487581607e42d63d45d3443ee | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xa6658afc37e5479fdf54f6a43c2fce50c9acc72aae9762e23f9d871912ac8a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-may | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | 72,210,890 | 72,210,890 |
fdb87da3ba4a12aa3a2fc7b3f12fa8e023649b19 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x5b8e32e1fbc08f9e7ab47d24593e67b950d95c13899a79a92921bfc106d0d7e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | 72,224,245 | 72,224,245 |
e8d14ae84ce497eadcc542d7a43077e1ac9f36ae | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x4e3a543f9150bb24e4aaa56b300f8ffef13558049458a888e09e1f9267e99eb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan | Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai? | 73,069,173 | 73,069,173 |
41677d337e047e174cb51d97cf4746eb9ff9f810 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x7ec21f8680dcb5771ff3434e881f0710d3a5d4e635b18b5753b0bcee1c5ee667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,183,454 | 73,183,454 |
78ae1692d067f4a90a94313acfe6def830ff5334 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xe81eca5d2505c0898a5b7bf40b94d59c632b2b23e3038fdf38a3d98a5282c47b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-june | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 73,425,841 | 73,425,841 |
ff590dcb706831fd6d6bb9c6f4214b01ddb2f9d2 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xf3cf6fae1fc4a2991ce6337a1512b75647d3342c11b8658f782767ee77994c23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | 75,901,443 | 75,901,443 |
b87d71bd7908d8ad4dc3a588f51a2efc34b2755a | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x3ee86a850a9f5b495d65ad5e409e5903a1f14ccc78c4e8bfa82fdb4c497b543d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | 76,255,409 | 76,255,409 |
7ee5d38b3dee3b4e57f92c3c55c8c1f0b2ce60e7 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xd65c4072e48a82a9cd49e8e6be332792fb13e8e076134d860d110427fc01d374 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-norway | Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | 76,259,837 | 76,259,837 |
82d2930791ff0520329dcb7d007c4d0cef71c1f6 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x17e8f2adcd47a26af6c1a428f6d3d0c2941f06fb4e5ffb60dbb879463d435aed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | caf-gam-bur1-2025-09-09 | Will Gambia win on 2025-09-09? | 76,268,444 | 76,268,444 |
5b42a8efedbec8a7e75e0d8c82fc87c3e5721b7c | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x5290bcc92d160ac4a48146c129b5145b206676471c6c954c934c8f00e89f683c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | caf-mtn-ssd-2025-09-09 | Will Mauritania vs. South Sudan end in a draw? | 76,268,444 | 76,268,444 |
eea661bf86b91ba512a1301f7b4e6bb47354005d | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xa6ba15e8fd49ffdf6112b415209a0edfb868f8a2cee9d01577e84ca845184c36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | uef-fra-isl-2025-09-09 | Will France win on 2025-09-09? | 76,268,444 | 76,268,444 |
a7b149c0b294a400a6087ea58b985b7cbb599fd3 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x15ef655be3e52492a672252104ef358f7e8c8ce82f50499ce42036ef5c7fdb9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET? | 76,279,446 | 76,279,446 |
517c7d6cc06e395ec6863c05cb2994ca9f7efd1f | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x4a76201df2897be2ae1a8ab7005d073d4bf8c02192a4abf912c29bfdef0c0335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | 76,590,240 | 76,590,240 |
d083ff98d0432887b7336019bc131e45652d2506 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x9cba0b7c9ea0897ffaba9e64047c1a6472f48a69b435773c438ad41f2f255520 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | moldova-parliamentary-election | Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | 77,056,101 | 77,056,101 |
740c1c715d789e5530e9b201e2d6bc6b67327535 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x2b4ff14a3fd6171d8f775ffb8b491c038e577fd0607b62e4351b6e902cc2b02e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | tur-bes-koc-2025-09-29 | Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-09-29? | 77,062,782 | 77,062,782 |
d498af3417931ef3c75920c8c4aaa57a2abf4bda | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x46901f36cfc520897f7c0a6d416fba4a7b8bc01a76d0d2af97944ebfbbdae19f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-september | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | 77,098,446 | 77,098,446 |
08a15d1f2ff7ce80378d9c7449042c4c8eafdb24 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x23d11385d87c3acb82d2e512e7be291429a88f6a1c47bd4af937fc2a2d91fd85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? | 77,107,679 | 77,107,679 |
da78ec63a7cd601b415eb94a3ffbf0c1a710818a | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xca33fe17a88036588f1e515c8561b49dc32dba8f2d0f2da36d884489471bb35f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-september | Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | 77,107,679 | 77,107,679 |
1d1046a14b1df187b150cb3c71d1b7805a4da764 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x1bd5d3615665542a8a979053deb0acc741cc6bf2426cfd8d793890c36e01c91f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-sao-2025-10-19 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-19? | 77,919,261 | 77,919,261 |
7e8affe5dd978226be33008c4555d590ca11c90a | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x5bcc643bfdc14b8c672cbf981c2464dd3e889eb398c7298ccf6eff24c56dcda2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | 77,955,438 | 77,955,438 |
3560c59faafda8f106aaf1689b2bda968d7f3242 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x78a4fef79f3947ba9e9467b59382490c2e2982528cfa115f8d47e76eacbc287d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | lal-ala-val-2025-10-20 | Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw? | 77,955,438 | 77,955,438 |
7222407e39d27169282e63523748182c3a045cde | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x4391f350910278d1264185597f7b041cc352b4c8e81b0818d1696b729615e32c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | elc-mil-sto-2025-10-21 | Will Millwall FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,006,974 | 78,006,974 |
a425352881fc65ceda74c07d77d21a7ecc213949 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xe083cee72baf294200ea590853b080935fe723d5858847432b04365001a7920c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | elc-hul-lei-2025-10-21 | Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,006,974 | 78,006,974 |
6db2d5830f83f673416ef794feea5a1ddbebfe92 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x344b92fb5f46a83c32a954fb4c42f0945d784a5681c4fe710f169225f5caba7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,034,309 | 78,034,309 |
5f7295c9ad807c8075c068baa568f1813b05cd25 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x82dbbd7eef5372626cc523c31135d01de9f17737dbc1ccb7b0da2845ca839c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | tur-kon-bes-2025-10-22 | Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,034,777 | 78,034,777 |
4cca0f34edc48293cbfd339507d9fd0c2969d449 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x17d98f09c6a309865f9151c0f89412f31afd07afd25cc2073e59832fc1ccfea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Event: australia-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03? | Event: epl-ars-bou-2025-05-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the nex... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | 78,125,358 | 78,125,358 |
8c6caa51866fabeae78a293d42da39cc99f32d86 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x59d9a171b98d49a952e80239ef3f49b862ac4b36599e9df6b4714ba5db012fa4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03? | Event: epl-ars-bou-2025-05-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-20... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Will AC Milan vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? | 78,125,358 | 78,125,358 |
77a08cc39f285853640b51b6681da6b67fb6cd6b | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x780f2fa3f62e5149babe7f9dd76ee8026ae8f4485ca8e0e001e33701c6381df3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | bun-wer-uni-2025-10-24 | Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-24? | 78,125,358 | 78,125,358 |
2541c54d1282b12c6832f9c30fd8272943fad106 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x566d830e56572831055d5283bd64af8a300945636a3d6a4bc116c55886298706 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in... | yes | 1 | ireland-presidential-election | Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | 78,162,800 | 78,162,800 |
7211db7868b20e10ef0dc77b8555319a71c1130e | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x119dedde0a3577683d850d8e11dd205af2ebc5ae83895e93536734e886bb7856 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,002 | 78,167,002 |
a050c0aa859fab6088eb7cfdb42dc3c0fe6a95de | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xc034ac69f99d3754a416f23f6a771693bfc6eaf4417c9a4309c8f51813965a37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | 78,167,002 | 78,167,002 |
5aa7b74233fd8f1d33694bd04a6d4b00a0fd9e44 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xba15396958d1dea85c7049ac843ff2ea63ebb0069a96fb4b57869552f86f4721 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich win Gr... | yes | 1 | tur-sam-riz-2025-10-27 | Will Samsunspor vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? | 78,254,461 | 78,254,461 |
b7e61873c8bc689168687dde32132bec2ada40ee | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x3d39d9321a8c4531c50f41f5bc2320cbfcc6694bce63d0430406baf249f04e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Micros... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | 78,257,956 | 78,257,956 |
ac2f05fb86570beaae9c311d3487e76927c0538d | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x5c3bb05bf0d50d28555f6c6cadae000d8942a14fb99359bde7dfaca01bf49722 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | 78,345,963 | 78,345,963 |
71dce6240f185403107c0472516362649d0d822e | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xfd0f1789d6e6e7c809d7f2f5007028ca666c2c614b7d336e7e404bb49bb14ae2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | Event: lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ap ... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-october-style-control-on | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | 78,417,408 | 78,417,408 |
3e521429ad4e35c257f5da50da0622eaa7e9c881 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x4741b65714ab9939a0ad2628d9cd4e891c7c90e11ddc78dfe00ff2bb00dbc509 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | Event: lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | Event: norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | elc-wre-cov-2025-10-31 | Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,324 | 78,427,324 |
6ade03b1cb7ac1194457ff4ddaff411617b203d8 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xbc32fb8e68917c22abe553167ba0a4993ba333e8640728ce2e6389d26f216724 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | Event: norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,324 | 78,427,324 |
66f192c78dafff31b8d9259be8953d5f03059720 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xbcdacbc9ad1d18fb52e026e82c838f0e3b28aff71afea26dad4bd2f9bfec8577 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-norway | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gambia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-gam-bur1-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mauritania vs. South Sudan end ... | yes | 1 | efa-lut1-fgr-2025-10-31 | Will Luton Town FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,324 | 78,427,324 |
2ab2475b7617e7be7c930984b95ace6d6b6a2682 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x60bc94a7c2ef926cf4b93023121597df3c6203d360bd3c83612bb074f6b51dbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gambia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: caf-gam-bur1-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mauritania vs. South Sudan end in a draw? | Event: caf-mtn-ssd-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-fra-isl-2025-09-... | yes | 1 | por-cas-ama-2025-11-01 | Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-11-01? | 78,467,702 | 78,467,702 |
9678d6ab1edbd556c2c9c2bfa2b02fd728add698 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x3a2b8743b1d71bcf8ebce9c267e97fdbf0af977ffe4185b48833f1a690a40c07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mauritania vs. South Sudan end in a draw? | Event: caf-mtn-ssd-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-fra-isl-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET? | Event: israel-s... | yes | 1 | ere-fey-vol-2025-11-01 | Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-01? | 78,468,840 | 78,468,840 |
b5eb309110c89b26a80eefd8951795ac8c8c4808 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x7f538853c29651a912d1ca0079cf2db1aebf6a1426f3efd69c0d72b10d14c637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-fra-isl-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09... | yes | 1 | arg-bar-aaj-2025-11-01 | Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-11-01? | 78,468,840 | 78,468,840 |
eea66e83c4cdee0ecfb2d468ca96bb9fba5fd98a | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x5f5f0b66297b8f3f2c159d9d67bfce1be8cf7db6a3a131d5de1afb8745c571ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 9 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats ... | yes | 1 | sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | 78,470,539 | 78,470,539 |
6d5ff8e186756f68e304532bd09def5a2e85e2e7 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x62c4da97fcb18dee9b3227a56be48ac351775d8f4527ed0a9eeb05a59d4062a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Event: moldova-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | mls-chi-phi-2025-11-01 | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2025-11-01? | 78,476,906 | 78,476,906 |
79515f514b74676405112ce42bd896169ce17d17 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x123aa448f21434675839ed079aa0794c7aa2c7c706f5ecdcafad1f124956597f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Event: moldova-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-09-29? | Event: tur-bes-koc-2025-09-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,503,371 | 78,503,371 |
898dc7d4f47b13d77a6e86029a91bab879e7a5db | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x75b8627a5e0178234eea0c25ab198976e73299234aeddaf6553e8e4d91cdf72c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-09-29? | Event: tur-bes-koc-2025-09-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | Event: which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09... | yes | 1 | por-aro-mor-2025-11-02 | Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,510,127 | 78,510,127 |
6ae3b5bfa9502d83f118fe3bf5dc25d907d45e07 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x75b00641afb54f05220333423d6f70be3fee7b73e27bc078492ebdb8bc792fdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | Event: which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Microsoft be the second la... | yes | 1 | bra-juv-pal-2025-11-02 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-02? | 78,516,619 | 78,516,619 |
72a442183176d8dab7fe867aec6d9c959bd89860 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xe11ffb98c127b7fef3b98ca5f390fd3019746cac3c65dffd70a3f5ffa7cc3804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | Event: 2nd-largest-company-end-of-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | bra-int-cam-2025-11-02 | Will SC Internacional vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? | 78,516,650 | 78,516,650 |
92b9405f45d13f38bd48b12e33ce920926212c73 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x751ca25043da33cab8c9142c0172ce955bd4a8bb6a162c4f87ddaa83325bf21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | Event: 2nd-largest-company-end-of-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-mir-sao-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,596,924 | 78,596,924 |
d52e8916ea3ea315d896d70b2a5af76ef57aa0a1 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x027eeeaba097b5f3b166eace64668b2e6b327acc7c6b314ae5f03b33b51425e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-mir-sao-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw? | Event: lal-ala-val-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | 78,608,765 | 78,608,765 |
f137561aec45be65bd688ca3eb70396466414b68 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw? | Event: lal-ala-val-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Millwall FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-mil-sto-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,608,765 | 78,608,765 |
c3c0d5d05fed77a103bf249c78bff1b1c521d113 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x835e1b22c2943ffe8805d953b37447d02e70d69cbcf03ba1f70febb17566a3cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw? | Event: lal-ala-val-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Millwall FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-mil-sto-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-hul-lei-2025... | yes | 1 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? | 78,640,700 | 78,640,700 |
4e8a7de2e4568db0ad0d633d96ac4b934a39402d | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xccf8a31fbf40f8ecb688590573fee4bc25ad395786ca63c8384de4de29961463 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Millwall FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-mil-sto-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-hul-lei-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Will Páfos FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,640,700 | 78,640,700 |
998c29beb8ea9b3283e8f9dabd990652c2370e4d | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xcb9aa79a32ad40d3a9ae6851c2b09e421c5a29ea9c23ba2e27ed26b5ba80973c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: elc-hul-lei-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: tur-kon-bes-2025-... | yes | 1 | ere-twe-tel-2025-11-07 | Will FC Twente '65 vs. Telstar 1963 end in a draw? | 78,730,238 | 78,730,238 |
803053c8e56e99a8ff91ce98bc28aae0ea9dbd37 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xcebe1ed8c34d44f080c6f96e95569a978b0bd51d826a07e0de36c47c469aac27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: tur-kon-bes-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-1... | yes | 1 | elc-wat-bri-2025-11-07 | Will Watford FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw? | 78,730,238 | 78,730,238 |
c217971b23e97efd703adc93864e56def30378a5 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xaea20f9c7ec72924436e8b229a5352a56db3d8465d0acf2a4bbf2e2f87a53474 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: tur-kon-bes-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? | Event: sea-mil-pis-2025... | yes | 1 | sea-juv-tor-2025-11-08 | Will Juventus vs. Torino end in a draw? | 78,768,972 | 78,768,972 |
8e88973ef3d6843ac890b7c3ba582b7cdb8054de | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x2997a6632103d9a3ce13116afe149727e433d118fddd603c596306ceb76fd91b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? | Event: sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-24? | Event: bun-wer-uni-20... | yes | 1 | bun-moe-koe-2025-11-08 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,081 | 78,769,081 |
154d8b097876ea2cd4533660880979f921b0037e | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xd68c40ef9cf4cf6ad0a89478e927609e92bd0b04bf4786e3a53a09ff2eb06170 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? | Event: sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-24? | Event: bun-wer-uni-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-rea-2025-11-09 | Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | 78,807,530 | 78,807,530 |
c80b5c5e773cdb2eaa73d0a14dd7fd7de45c3aa7 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xe73edadf8c145ebf8414e9a92b55040345a77aade693bf8c800201c5fa88bc3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-24? | Event: bun-wer-uni-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Event: ireland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-11-09 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,316 | 78,810,316 |
a1835d0dd9a380538794975b2232b689cf82ded7 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x925711da5ea477e25b904fdae1c1d35e7a08795b7723ab7cd3d90e84484cd635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Event: ireland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-25? | Event: fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | fif-col-nzl-2025-11-15 | Will Colombia win on 2025-11-15? | 79,083,412 | 79,083,412 |
9be907c0eb4963b79045d6ec8de03caee29d4c0b | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-25? | Event: fl1-rcl-olm-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? | Event: t... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will England win on 2025-11-16? | 79,113,710 | 79,113,710 |
7a0212aea56e6ff6cb1f0d8c7ff758807b4edb88 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xb2e0efaccef98ac0c2f1d9ef3de1275189f1a1cb5b09bdc50da4423e7aad4e99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Samsunspor vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? | Event: tur-sam-riz-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-b... | yes | 1 | uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | 79,117,850 | 79,117,850 |
fb5d79f98253b0fa2a6a13fd067e7b0fe850b3c2 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x7fcfd2ef90f60882a4393e2485104ce1dedf25dcd12931ec462468264bf41416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samsunspor vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? | Event: tur-sam-riz-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | arg-new-rac-2025-11-16 | Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-16? | 79,124,343 | 79,124,343 |
479f57f8cce2cdce3b99a0e3372bc151b17f7127 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x30eaf906aa8c80e66586af84863c2a933ad29c1a98b6b1b544d1513143376185 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | Event: wh... | yes | 1 | arg-cac-ban-2025-11-16 | Will CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Banfield end in a draw? | 79,124,433 | 79,124,433 |
4d0002e2c0db45ebf460ff0efef5a2cf1b78856a | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x419a55bd0f19cde65f8b1a0756d94867af8dd14b88dae2567c9a918f37ac207e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | Event: which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-october-style-control-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wrexha... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-ata-2025-11-22 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-22? | 79,385,125 | 79,385,125 |
9364750591e3ef1d4d46e25e5a278de8978476d7 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x8902e730c2158192c42141a97652e59d01a7464d840f1cf0b6a7fbe48a44a403 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | Event: which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-october-style-control-on | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: elc-wre-cov-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia ... | yes | 1 | ucl-spo1-bru-2025-11-26 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,659 | 79,550,659 |
30d01813d45f54ada3b61a66f89fc6579a902047 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xc71ec6617d1781dc31c9882952d8a5661cb615cd57115631eaac5bffa061fabb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: elc-wre-cov-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | Event: bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Luton Town FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: efa-lut1-fgr-2... | yes | 1 | ucl-oly1-rma1-2025-11-26 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,659 | 79,550,659 |
52e82fd2cf5b7dc43adbaa249de5b9c4f2865482 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x9a181c0ec0bad661affed2c551831b96eacc3b3215b1293678d0622e5da4e967 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | Event: bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luton Town FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: efa-lut1-fgr-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por... | yes | 1 | fl1-met-ren-2025-11-28 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-11-28? | 79,637,107 | 79,637,107 |
c5ef12dca33ee8dc6216c30b5e96d8a3d74ccadb | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xe594a76d7a353dc3d4eaa386a76f8792b5cfa23442f707ea1b358208ca4de7f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luton Town FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: efa-lut1-fgr-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por-cas-ama-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-01? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | ere-zwo-her1-2025-11-28 | Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-11-28? | 79,637,107 | 79,637,107 |
b735bd99b96f056a289bdb9ee467a388c36f8ff1 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x5c3726826457ca35a746a331a2bb3b51c22b1a6f111331dbc1eef1cb61c083b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-11-01? | Event: por-cas-ama-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-01? | Event: ere-fey-vol-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-11-01? | Eve... | yes | 1 | lal-get-elc-2025-11-28 | Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? | 79,638,065 | 79,638,065 |
4fa188225466dd32b2b4e23fdba8c263d1017c8a | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xe03ac089895c1abee88cf7bd6d892b216da074a9a6a5840711e00810cd4932e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-01? | Event: ere-fey-vol-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-11-01? | Event: arg-bar-aaj-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-j... | yes | 1 | bun-moe-lei-2025-11-28 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? | 79,638,065 | 79,638,065 |
6638cb7ab6eb633ded250b9c1253e531f03a92d9 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xd5237c3d2991468e7f1be176d9396ceb5b003735bf2833f256987c9aa37eb057 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-11-01? | Event: arg-bar-aaj-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Philadelphia Union win on 2025-11-01? | Event: mls-chi-ph... | yes | 1 | bra-san-rec-2025-11-28 | Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-28? | 79,644,988 | 79,644,988 |
2fb4d406c09980c60977a60392cb61a8f574d087 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xc77748c076af2cde91fef5657bd89b21defe95881f10cacad3c7d3ee7bf6c269 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | Event: sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Philadelphia Union win on 2025-11-01? | Event: mls-chi-phi-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event... | yes | 1 | ja2-sag-jub-2025-11-29 | Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2025-11-29? | 79,656,085 | 79,656,085 |
08b8711b628194b574e26d6abb41394a04d7e7fc | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x42838710dc9c668d5ebdb4e37b282fce01cc09a298673df46ffcae095c1a59c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Philadelphia Union win on 2025-11-01? | Event: mls-chi-phi-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-1... | yes | 1 | bra-vas-int-2025-11-28 | Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-11-28? | 79,657,719 | 79,657,719 |
371489ac13f5d662edcc42c728b14f588f4d2fd4 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0xb4847664db2638f9a70da06f519302d7e6cf6986ed84b797d9471b5fc2440215 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winning-region | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-11-02? | Event: por-aro-mor-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-02? ... | yes | 1 | tur-kas-iba-2025-11-29 | Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-11-29? | 79,675,159 | 79,675,159 |
994c368ee4832e43522646158cc7249d3e16c21e | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x1aa5bf60bbe2b6651bc135d687baa387b0e7535f9da21e637a332b2d3ccada2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-11-02? | Event: por-aro-mor-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-02? | Event: bra-juv-pal-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Internacional vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? | Event: bra... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-new-2025-11-29 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29? | 79,676,018 | 79,676,018 |
fdf11e529a586c75c6a46dde25d23cac15de4659 | 0x2b560ec206b35b03cb25e1f423a16ea233f5d1e1 | 0x84e89f9718b3361f8ee581fc58ad7c87d439ad66e1dc08323bd8e50d8200b4e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-02? | Event: bra-juv-pal-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Internacional vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? | Event: bra-int-cam-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-sl... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-bil-2025-11-29 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-29? | 79,676,018 | 79,676,018 |
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