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69e0e5928b7c2023a9e0e55604cdbdf22bcb4bf2
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x23d41e767eec3aa1d88bae98d173cf6db58c7a4925822ce0c9be8ea8b87da611
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Marlins vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-mia-wsh-2025-06-15 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Twins vs. Astros | Event: mlb-min-hou-2025-06-15 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Yankees vs. Red Sox | Event: mlb-nyy-bos-2025-06-15 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0 4. Qu...
giants
0
mlb-cle-sf-2025-06-18
Guardians vs. Giants
72,955,544
72,955,544
a1fdc8022d627e574b2b8fe545901717034bc970
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x9ad6302dbbde414631b69c126592965891b7942ba3f085b8acfd43c6c29a2920
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Twins vs. Astros | Event: mlb-min-hou-2025-06-15 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Yankees vs. Red Sox | Event: mlb-nyy-bos-2025-06-15 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Angels vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-laa-bal-2025-06-15 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 4. Questi...
dodgers
0
mlb-sd-lad-2025-06-18
Padres vs. Dodgers
72,955,544
72,955,544
67704ffa7252bc617293ebbae8c9105334b5faee
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x330b0f0b6505a8b5f20a00de1c845e2d5f3779f5b69445fb4b8fa978cac8c659
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Yankees vs. Red Sox | Event: mlb-nyy-bos-2025-06-15 | Choice: red sox | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Angels vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-laa-bal-2025-06-15 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Rockies vs. Braves | Event: mlb-col-atl-2025-06-15 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0 4. Ques...
angels
0
mlb-laa-nyy-2025-06-19
Angels vs. Yankees
72,973,249
72,973,249
8375195aa3e978dd94afd32c4edce43ac23cddbb
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x5619e060f198c2175f2837d0a3fa4d7793e293482e560d7046fcf1e8c40c6aca
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Angels vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-laa-bal-2025-06-15 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Rockies vs. Braves | Event: mlb-col-atl-2025-06-15 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Athletics vs. Royals | Event: mlb-oak-kc-2025-06-15 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0 4. Qu...
nationals
0
mlb-col-wsh-2025-06-19
Rockies vs. Nationals
72,973,249
72,973,249
d1ac0cae7f59b08cddc516892a3f2894315a08c7
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0xda48ecf5ad9c76223101a9d9f5e0089fdd95689c4ba4b0ccf950a158dc5de677
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Rockies vs. Braves | Event: mlb-col-atl-2025-06-15 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Athletics vs. Royals | Event: mlb-oak-kc-2025-06-15 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Cardinals vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-stl-mil-2025-06-15 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0 4...
reds
0
mlb-min-cin-2025-06-19
Twins vs. Reds
72,973,249
73,010,993
026a1bff139984b43acae26e943e070ac6898773
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x239c32629584691fb3deba75ef1ff3bde90ac75a7a8f4387f16d06afb1703ed4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Athletics vs. Royals | Event: mlb-oak-kc-2025-06-15 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Cardinals vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-stl-mil-2025-06-15 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: White Sox vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-cws-tex-2025-06-15 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0...
giants
0
mlb-cle-sf-2025-06-19
Guardians vs. Giants
72,981,107
73,010,993
9ef088fc743462cd059f8c099bb54b91ce56ad49
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x78eb416971edfae99fb8e5350e70d86061a7e533b188a342432f469fecb0ec89
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Cardinals vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-stl-mil-2025-06-15 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: White Sox vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-cws-tex-2025-06-15 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Angels vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-laa-nyy-2025-06-16 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 4...
astros
0
mlb-hou-oak-2025-06-19
Astros vs. Athletics
72,984,707
72,988,381
fad0451a32dd13c3044d397f6b9138e23066ea31
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0xef4b04b4ad55a55806cd666c1091b98285e95fa8057dc5a3626531f68c643dc5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: White Sox vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-cws-tex-2025-06-15 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Angels vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-laa-nyy-2025-06-16 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Phillies vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-16 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0 4....
orioles
0
mlb-bal-tb-2025-06-19
Orioles vs. Rays
72,984,707
73,010,993
41f5294a11361a8bfe9ecf1a30c6b208f44506f0
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x1a3c2f2e593bfd2b1828b733c28277fd74e336599be6f3ecc1b94dc2488b265c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Angels vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-laa-nyy-2025-06-16 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Phillies vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-16 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Padres vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-sd-lad-2025-06-16 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 4. Que...
dodgers
0
mlb-sd-lad-2025-06-19
Padres vs. Dodgers
72,987,798
72,987,798
9fd63e15f538f212fa1641233e3d52d84003f46d
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x212fecbad88415dc7a4ab69a580bbfd60e4aad69d408bcbb5120376420395db6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Phillies vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-16 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Padres vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-sd-lad-2025-06-16 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Red Sox vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-bos-sea-2025-06-16 | Choice: mariners | Confidence: 0.0 4....
cubs
0
mlb-sea-chc-2025-06-20
Mariners vs. Cubs
73,014,153
73,035,263
f2d3830d9aef2ca62784556fb908488910083fa4
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x4fab3357f231568c57a5b7b6110329df4836d4562aacd21fcaec965494fa90b0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Padres vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-sd-lad-2025-06-16 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Red Sox vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-bos-sea-2025-06-16 | Choice: mariners | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Astros vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-hou-oak-2025-06-16 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0 4. ...
blue jays
0
mlb-cws-tor-2025-06-20
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
73,021,097
73,021,097
93e8f8d2abb583754214844bae576b31d23b6a0a
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0xbb3f2784cb2f41f70a2c97b4aad2d7327aa622bd870326001fd418fda0391fe0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Red Sox vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-bos-sea-2025-06-16 | Choice: mariners | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Astros vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-hou-oak-2025-06-16 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-ari-tor-2025-06-17 | Choice: blue jays | Confiden...
pirates
0
mlb-tex-pit-2025-06-20
Rangers vs. Pirates
73,021,097
73,035,263
8befce542a9eb97951347a20396db76f31a58edc
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x608bb3601aad7cb486dae592635c365746b917981b2167dc19d0d001f072b512
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Astros vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-hou-oak-2025-06-16 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-ari-tor-2025-06-17 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Twins vs. Reds | Event: mlb-min-cin-2025-06-17 | Choice: reds | Confidence: 0.0 4....
mets
0.028594
mlb-nym-phi-2025-06-20
Mets vs. Phillies
73,021,185
73,035,263
63f55011e189349c298ab884ad6c9347e356af69
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0xf1a53f94b557f6502fb4b4fa8e8680f383a62eb404f337bfcedce1aa715c5115
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-ari-tor-2025-06-17 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Twins vs. Reds | Event: mlb-min-cin-2025-06-17 | Choice: reds | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Phillies vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-17 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0 4...
padres
0
mlb-kc-sd-2025-06-20
Royals vs. Padres
73,024,841
73,028,592
01bd0f875b638ea2172e4ab680cacbeb44233a97
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0xf71b613d7745c32ac44d8857e402259643346f2dc74abd51816fc1ddaab5858e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Twins vs. Reds | Event: mlb-min-cin-2025-06-17 | Choice: reds | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Phillies vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-17 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Angels vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-laa-nyy-2025-06-17 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 4. Question:...
athletics
0
mlb-cle-oak-2025-06-20
Guardians vs. Athletics
73,024,841
73,035,262
0d5d698894409c2fb502183b154591493efb206a
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x274d4aec367a8332f1a762092c80976407000d40cd95d6bd25e39d09cd204efc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Phillies vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-17 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Angels vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-laa-nyy-2025-06-17 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Royals vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-kc-tex-2025-06-17 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.0 4. Que...
giants
0
mlb-bos-sf-2025-06-20
Red Sox vs. Giants
73,028,592
73,028,592
85d1f2c3a012c2296879942a3455336a5a8376cb
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0xc04a49bd690c5e58c6c638874b09b427a105edd87e03e1a6012a74a20c31a70b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Angels vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-laa-nyy-2025-06-17 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Royals vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-kc-tex-2025-06-17 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Brewers vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-mil-chc-2025-06-17 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0 4. Questio...
dodgers
0
mlb-wsh-lad-2025-06-20
Nationals vs. Dodgers
73,028,592
73,028,592
da7e99c3067f4a4a2ba3742ba27379e403a3ad80
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x01a6ab43abe8212c5f415e7cc0eb1d34aaf28ca30134a550fa940513ce5e8c77
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Royals vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-kc-tex-2025-06-17 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Brewers vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-mil-chc-2025-06-17 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Guardians vs. Giants | Event: mlb-cle-sf-2025-06-17 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 0.0 4. Questi...
angels
0
mlb-hou-laa-2025-06-20
Astros vs. Angels
73,028,592
73,035,262
cfa4afef89b7c82fe9ee474402e698a040433b16
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x01c9be81720448865c9da8992f81351b4d6051ebb559dff8898f9c9b37afda31
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Brewers vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-mil-chc-2025-06-17 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Guardians vs. Giants | Event: mlb-cle-sf-2025-06-17 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Mets vs. Braves | Event: mlb-nym-atl-2025-06-17 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0 4. Question:...
angels
0
mlb-hou-laa-2025-06-21
Astros vs. Angels
73,065,979
73,065,979
df0f94dbe97a097c5440b0db5c724637762c3908
0x2b6f2b17960523294f7245578b7786bf791c3838
0x09df4ba3351483d12aae35a2842b4ca614cc56cc0b83348e3123c97283c35b2d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Guardians vs. Giants | Event: mlb-cle-sf-2025-06-17 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Mets vs. Braves | Event: mlb-nym-atl-2025-06-17 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Astros vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-hou-oak-2025-06-17 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0 4. Questi...
blue jays
0
mlb-cws-tor-2025-06-21
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
73,065,979
73,065,979
98e29b88e7c692879061e000d1086a6ed981e6e4
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0xaa2014664918ee59e5d435789ae64d805f3fe27c6deb7cbdeeb38ce33648faeb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30
Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30?
76,865,015
76,865,015
4a0f82e79585e12ca2a2dddfc24d450e4bca0375
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0xf0df97bdb6cb8995821803027e409982e6ed91d512c47d4cf424b63e95ae3a85
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "co...
yes
1
bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30?
76,865,015
76,865,015
6d63874162a26cae5702887b895b600f5d76b8b9
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x433216f4710b6abd739266d7a6a10344cf297f99e51458a70499f2fd70d9defd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08...
yes
1
sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31
Will Torino win on 2025-08-31?
76,865,016
76,865,016
cc3d5b2b5d585250ebc087ad7bfcc911e696c361
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x488b0e6289dae794d6d4faeeb51dc326a3cbf5f3651b8bda0a105085aac49b74
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31?
76,865,016
76,865,016
8a2335871403b54d55b1b71b69c91087e677048c
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x9fd479b63de09fa7dc1c4cdb01e453ca9c51f5f08b20b677ffb2a3e9056d5a7e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30
Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
76,865,016
76,865,016
8c01c68ff1fdb57d7818b56dc5b7de2321db90e7
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0xd89b745f4cebe8c80cebb895d5116191e34c742175b38ccbfcd0286b493f6a94
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
fl1-tou-psg-2025-08-30
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-30?
76,865,016
76,865,016
dbf02474ba8d5f930b2aa7226c39058c387c0057
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0xf099dda80246b2f9a4904fe13b6898063e9ad5598d43f7bb4d8cfea619b779cc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30
Will Wolves vs. Everton end in a draw?
76,865,016
76,865,016
08c09629cc0ea542e4f46a20e370947754cfa4dc
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x08e2c5b0a4e2b1cc4bd0a01a2c3566ee56a9d8e235b8ba92fd555c04f0f3f268
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-22?
76,865,017
76,865,017
664053c76babec2f63f9c72a1736638a1ffce7bb
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x1517c5774935a2147544af1f1723b565b79ff92e6d414670a940f4962cfb9ad6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
fl1-psg-ang-2025-08-22
Will Angers SCO win on 2025-08-22?
76,865,017
76,865,017
d42bfc1327efc6ccd95325416d960f796bc379a0
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0xaf5f56d8c8e3e684b13a26e1c13a94888f8a7b2addcf82204261585847d225d5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30?
76,865,017
76,865,017
90f3c491a7aa4e5ceabb58f2f6782aa2c3d4f67a
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x0403f396d6e190d2bcc7f54bcef6d7a77ae44768b69caf4aa2d7095ffb02237c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight
Will MrBeast raise less than $40m by midnight?
76,865,018
76,865,018
528e09b21e24a9d05ec5993c8aca2a560933a750
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x3a7d8ef2aa45dcb3a92f62c251c22135c5965d7db5bec22802346f8a5edd2e7e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
sea-laz-ver-2025-08-31
Will Verona win on 2025-08-31?
76,865,018
76,865,018
c2aa34752ee22daa49014beaafc9ee2f0ceda194
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x797a4af3d4f9ab5a5c3bb640c1410edc7f7e248def19b766afce32c698e7fcef
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
lal-bet-bil-2025-08-31
Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-31?
76,865,018
76,865,018
269293f3de0ce7932a7bf84b5b59b45c5a5c60ac
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0x7aff8e44204042f38588f3c81013e4b8820dc8f38f6551e2c4735ed905a47563
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
how-long-will-donald-trump-and-vladimir-putin-shake-hands-for
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for less than 2 seconds?
76,865,018
76,865,018
f57df14766586dfd9e6d1690a846aa835df1b58b
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0xcf7b5dd2c0afbe8b2b75c355f8ef703d7ccf24163be1438838bb8b9486dea9c3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
lal-cel-vil-2025-08-31
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-08-31?
76,865,018
76,865,018
82a38232951610ef06282ad851a24b2b1e18b929
0x2b9e84b0e9449229359519a8410f5f9d9f647a74
0xd718de81e5917d06abf76056b49d517179fa58ca64ffb312c067680caddc07ef
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30? | Event: bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-tor-fio-2025-08-31 | Choic...
yes
1
epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30?
76,865,018
76,865,018
28e24bcce42fc1e5d2501138eeb05a9cd20be019
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x1722c194bfd09ff81a94c86ea99995b136369d8d8d7485b97034f6a08a9c2ef0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Pacers vs. Knicks Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
knicks
0
nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17
Pacers vs. Knicks
74,084,708
74,084,708
68bdb3558b7abcac6d8407d9b276acdc79c56ae2
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x5a0149ddd6034b745145bced3b1fd2452202cb2f1fe1cdb0b1f604958df2b325
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "ratio...
dubois
0.33113
boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2
74,162,919
74,164,130
fb62a42d82f5f68a64311a7edf04649187fb6078
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x2171e2419af76766b499a6da01ca738bb8ee0dc0a1f8c5ece7215d9a77affa41
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 Target market: Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET Event: bitcoin-up-or-do...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET
74,346,443
74,346,827
32efeaf90df9b39d630b57e4c8de1844a6a0a35a
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x24a758eb6585055e2663c18a086f117151c8bc7660e94a5a0cf499021a9db857
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
up
0.000023
bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-24
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?
74,351,685
74,351,685
88ca042991819b8b6a729a30d812b3e51fbee2ed
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x5a02173eef9d7193394a08db4a4c1379d07af9d011557be0c3fa3be372772e27
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-25-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 1PM ET
74,400,766
74,400,766
d3461e5772f5e6c890d58ff74d17d4f70652fe5e
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x8f86107cf1cb5a8dc697536563fe10631d5c7b6a1c47ac33702ad6460aa0db50
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-27-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 7PM ET
74,490,920
74,490,920
bd658a8a27935f4a2fb25a8ef7c2f2bcc5652a29
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x286fa31aba9dfd8716a8bab72ddd43d77e2012bb968ad25834fb198e01ef7c77
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
down
0.000403
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-29-5am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5AM ET
74,549,859
74,549,859
de511e4bb60b6f27bf00c14e3e60e39a1a7b70f5
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x56a03c37b84b7c221ca0225339deb38b230f1d092d06af8562eabdda7a654a3c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
up
0.000033
bitcoin-up-or-down-july-30-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3PM ET
74,602,479
74,602,479
c25cadd4011c871729d2965b62c82654de1fa4ce
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x33f926b9d8dea87db5569e7505e86f6812e44eb3293dbbd1616e55147c466c26
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
down
0.000033
bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-6
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
74,873,523
74,873,523
0b609b8d80dd50f59cb42545ef1dd155b1b02986
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x812d8819cda5c57e824719de0381d8e207a45b5b71da31a6425f6c2f181a3fc4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
yes
0.999942
fed-decision-in-july
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
74,885,049
74,885,049
5a11c755606c5d1ea01a73997c6f58572b84dd73
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x11a367fea8169759c13b9dbf4547e6fb8aaecfd22f87674870f5940e86c90bdb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
0.207666
will-trump-meet-with-putin-by-august-15
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?
74,990,739
75,229,624
17339980d33308d8960268929fe9f487c586d052
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x35d46ca2d4328687f438ffb67c6cfa4fa46e3b2f3d317f9bbef04f3463426a1f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
giants
0.000018
nfl-nyg-buf-2025-08-09
Giants vs. Bills
74,993,307
74,995,149
9c45897738d4642702f19da58be648ea313ae99e
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xbe3655f45ebc2b81d749b88b8f5032227f064b11b50f131d07ef3740d8d77dc9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
0.871895
what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?
75,001,021
75,001,021
8b2db757bb93134674d564783d0d1053a1a345ff
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xb615225930ab7ad4957eba53543f04a6f0c5634f21c0fc530086acd3f87b3946
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
fokina
0.000014
atp-cincinnati-davidovich-fokina-vs-fonseca
ATP Cincinnati - Davidovich Fokina vs. Fonseca
75,006,443
75,006,443
565f98394ef65e2556c23c1ed464ca01b548ad12
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x64e5c4a981829672c89460959404e89a208aa2dcf04a86de075e69d80b383070
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
phillies
0
mlb-phi-cin-2025-08-11
Phillies vs. Reds
75,068,059
75,068,059
a155884596d68979fdc67b7b7641a522b545c790
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xec05c24e569aca2bdd5d6e948f7810e1b4449cb98433c0e34bc8c4baa1df3ef8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
yes
0.000001
will-trump-deploy-national-guard-in-dc-by-monday
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?
75,077,813
75,077,822
5a8bff44726ed1f6e76e7090ce1010b05a786e8a
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x27fa002bf1e91268fa0b4232b3d35892f15f7b6c26af17749a10ec3a8c218b53
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
0.019073
bolivia-presidential-election
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
75,329,601
77,901,685
a5bfbb035a1873944cf7973671b086026efed498
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x21ee86a4fe50df92075a372d59a9212917994736892441ac449e56d993272602
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
0
epl-lee-eve-2025-08-18
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-18?
75,353,148
75,353,148
b00e44f2c6155b6d7565f1e407bf3336a403325b
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xbdd44d7e096d51f21335c08074c90127c6b0a1659c37a6919e967dfed5773cce
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-august-19-8am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8AM ET
75,398,141
75,401,081
50c4468018e91d939e293ae8e0e9d8ba54d12979
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xfd22010b8208ded338c986b077fc1e813a55383b585f30eb0af9ef3b2aa22dc1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
down
0.000034
bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-7am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7AM ET
75,476,434
75,476,434
c09c16bcfae4c9fc06999f4bef73a58892cb8447
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
1
fed-decision-in-september
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
75,527,459
76,558,265
51db1363a26216f85f09a50c450506a91654b158
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xacc3a697aa5664010781c91659224b55e8dced7e1ffb4a0ad039ff635e488bc1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
shapovalov
0.00002
us-open-jannik-sinner-vs-denis-shapovalov-2025-08-30
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov
75,851,352
75,852,586
949b2f30861e4d27b5bf270ede034ceb3226548a
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x46dc560a09f07d8b6989bec851262e4df92ea0dd909631cf987afc88c8b8d729
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
0.000045
will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?
75,886,366
75,886,366
c416ba0c0b80cb30fbdf9b251ccb9f9c0dd552f1
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xbe82478cb3441d1555daa60fa3b91f5797ff17a2e9b6dcdca0e3ce5117cf2992
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
mannarino
0.000002
us-open-adrian-mannarino-vs-jiri-lehecka-2025-08-31
US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Jiri Lehecka
75,886,851
75,886,851
a52a541a8ac9fc1b967b9b3a891d33719e2402e8
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x16431ff8b4ecc554845702eb77248cd637520dd3240bb2750d8b0a201690a3cb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
0.000248
lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31?
75,893,554
75,893,554
11d9a587fe3a3588cfd2a8960f18804071045ce7
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x274839b8da1aa2fa4a1e38ee9edc2b326964ec39f489680003088c975e72ba96
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
1
horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner
Will Highland Falls win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup?
75,912,983
75,912,983
7156ab7590b38bc461853a059bbee0ab1df6184c
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x5c48bfa7860e87433d32321e4ed8c3a8a3c934df93d333ff3ac6d9aefa3660ae
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
yes
1
horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner
Will Antiquarian win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup?
75,912,983
75,912,983
c6d8894cee0206e7dc25694b2038dca765a07aba
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x91eca479076bf5887d07b17acc918489902159421792e888bc91805e2f5c92cb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
1
horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner
Will Sierra Leone win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup?
75,912,983
75,912,983
e9e110bdb6c4338179ddfe5d4b070df8e8e37d52
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x96ee95ae5ff257cd8ef6f5e1dde753e014999e29b7a53fa790d7b981f73a8be8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
1
horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner
Will Contrary Thinking win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup?
75,912,983
75,912,983
cafe5f51019be6caa4f41fefebc1c22ff652c626
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xb883b89dd82c44b89ee78771dbb3b88b88658837c3a60758eeab4d6561e9a311
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
no
1
horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner
Will Mindframe win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup?
75,912,983
75,912,983
4836436f04cd53b30deb660147ddf138e405340e
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x89f22f51b9038959848e956d27c57075ddc62c475fa59738964a7ead1aba4c31
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Knicks | Event: nba-ind-nyk-2025-07-17 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-...
aliassime
1
us-open-felix-auger-aliassime-vs-alex-de-minaur-2025-09-03
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur
76,009,858
76,009,858
2a9b01a61829ceceb363cdf0a7b571acf3a0dcc4
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xd525aee42fdb9f030429a6766ac36b31a8cc889db66e53b10b32b159e684649c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Event: boxing-usyk-vs-dubois-2 | Choice: dubois | Confidence: 0.33112996258280647 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.517956207360002e-08 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July ...
swiatek
0.000001
us-open-amanda-anisimova-vs-iga-swiatek-2025-09-03
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek
76,015,418
76,015,418
cad7942afa42ee0126fb2fe728521fa1124f0c22
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x03a052ff9402cc58c6299f7aca3767a508e65f2403ed8f9a74354d2763d24be6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.517956207360002e-08 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-24 | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.309872495038274e-05 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow...
up
0.000089
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1PM ET
76,050,585
76,050,585
7de53656f969f319a316f3f40b0fbe913e9cd1ec
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x6208bf7c62b0d806e6e37ebdf992a56893270a7ba3659a864c2d65580055a1f9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-24 | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.309872495038274e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-25-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 7PM E...
pegula
0.000003
us-open-aryna-sabalenka-vs-jessica-pegula-2025-09-04
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
76,061,890
76,062,652
b35273f83894e55f4977c38927ddcf10fbd91d31
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x6584e0a15d6438e879bcb68b4d9a5afc831dc49cdb89a3c67bc96a254d873cbd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-25-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-27-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5AM ET | Ev...
imavov
0.000004
ufc-fight-night-imavov-vs-borralho
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
76,133,286
76,133,286
931c5c6a8e8a3156f9f14d92057b4c2e02ab9afa
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x87d31295ac1925a7e6e3a53a28aa88bbb54aa539c52e81f758e41667d05dd3bf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-27-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00040348713241899906 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - J...
saint denis
0
ufc-fight-night-imavov-vs-borralho
UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy
76,135,478
76,135,478
fb1e461138f86b502cb9161b666697a6dd435624
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x4339941ae4a4470d66e29bf99206d3cb4f3649e37b9d57d75be5b7f9d8c1e511
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-29-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00040348713241899906 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-30-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.3318889814591376e-05 3. Question: Bitco...
yes
0.000004
who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?
76,325,111
76,325,111
3b31515dac7b317c6e830dd8eb615a290c471cbd
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xafcb290d0c1866372d6519db936b6fd76db3b6eb71fd0fc9cb6a6531dd0cee07
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-30-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.3318889814591376e-05 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-6 | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.302671038609633e-05 3. Question: Fed decreases ...
yes
1
epl-bre-che-2025-09-13
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13?
76,523,752
76,523,752
606b3ffe0c1453e0bffabc27b63502748da8d1fc
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-6 | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.302671038609633e-05 2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999418134632523 3. Question: Wil...
yes
0.997344
ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?
76,556,646
76,556,646
1d579782f04717a664bd4db1aa2752a1f6d22667
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999418134632523 2. Question: Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? | Event: will-trump-meet-with-putin-by-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20766633872656076 3....
yes
0.150754
new-york-city-mayoral-election
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
76,645,031
78,593,947
d61da18f84515bdfbd14d0bbcd707eaf6874c557
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x262da56221882bfad212e93864104e6a010325665c3da417daedc574913c3bd5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? | Event: will-trump-meet-with-putin-by-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20766633872656076 2. Question: Giants vs. Bills | Event: nfl-nyg-buf-2025-08-09 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 1.79817200531198e-05 3. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on Au...
yes
0.000001
epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20?
76,676,300
76,676,300
fdb9e355d9110683b94c52b06704cdefb209c65a
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x6f18d3500f82e6e1918d73e59e6a03c752621ff16cadd028f95b126ad19f1b39
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Giants vs. Bills | Event: nfl-nyg-buf-2025-08-09 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 1.79817200531198e-05 2. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8718948361036438 3. Question: ATP Cincinnati - Davidovich Fokina vs. ...
no
0.000008
epl-mun-che-2025-09-20
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20?
76,689,272
76,689,272
36036c4f12c18434c6c718de866fab92ba594b0c
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xae27fb87b6c76d45b98ab24ec39a0df2f1ac9b77fa75648393c4a1b31da49bed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | Event: what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8718948361036438 2. Question: ATP Cincinnati - Davidovich Fokina vs. Fonseca | Event: atp-cincinnati-davidovich-fokina-vs-fonseca | Choice: fokina | Confidence: 1.4294795655896099e-05 ...
up
0.000047
bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-11am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11AM ET
76,768,243
76,768,243
3bdd56269efc42cd265c071f7607e7315e3846d6
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x75080fb66e76af69bf819e9816ccd6863f38f8d2dece0183d331d4a1520adcd9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: ATP Cincinnati - Davidovich Fokina vs. Fonseca | Event: atp-cincinnati-davidovich-fokina-vs-fonseca | Choice: fokina | Confidence: 1.4294795655896099e-05 2. Question: Phillies vs. Reds | Event: mlb-phi-cin-2025-08-11 | Choice: phillies | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Trump deploys National Gua...
yes
1
wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year
Will Alysha Clark win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year?
76,836,299
76,836,299
a94e5308dd8e209dd47a3f2127ffb68d26756b02
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xad6dfdb2b1d5b8b16614a13f56f579f1235e5641f146b35044296f1ed2791a00
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Phillies vs. Reds | Event: mlb-phi-cin-2025-08-11 | Choice: phillies | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday? | Event: will-trump-deploy-national-guard-in-dc-by-monday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.479303966631489e-07 3. Question: Will Rodrigo Paz win the...
yes
1
wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year
Will Kayla Thornton win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year?
76,836,299
76,836,299
58c64bb4c9a81ea18f3f608691580bf690cdb8ce
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xe4313b45bcb1a89253c27031c541a28cd9a6b632fadc26dd42da54243bd11d44
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday? | Event: will-trump-deploy-national-guard-in-dc-by-monday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.479303966631489e-07 2. Question: Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidenc...
yes
1
wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year
Will Jordin Canada win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year?
76,836,299
76,836,299
667a47788062126c3d86cbb84c277b4a44e4dd69
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x5ccdf2f2bf8f9d51d20c4933f8bdec15feea18384fe39cfc34fc3a7e8ab7eab0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0190730181404793 2. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-18? | Event: epl-lee-eve-2025-08-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ...
no
0
epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28?
77,008,500
77,008,500
626657f11e26b58a00be5d6aa8a419014b973e4c
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x5be2baa4127624bb749feb333d2e65f32ee7a70c98d866d3064453bdccf5b29e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-18? | Event: epl-lee-eve-2025-08-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-19-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7AM ET | Event: bi...
browns
0.000028
nfl-min-cle-2025-10-05
Vikings vs. Browns
77,296,724
77,296,724
573b90c0aca6fde3776ad6142006c304e0541d8e
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xbf116c4f5c4299568e70aec78daacca6660380bf3851a4f3782f4b48ce9858b1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-19-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.435839855504335e-05 3. Question: Fed decreases i...
joint
0
wta-zhu-vs-joint-2025-10-06
Wuhan Tennis Open: Lin Zhu vs Maya Joint
77,325,054
77,325,054
e70d468ecb70ad5927d9504cad43056fdd23cbbe
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x0a58c9146f74a14de8d4ea4e2639971f7f00e9f66913d3a8557a63d81e06f5a0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.435839855504335e-05 2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Questi...
munar
0.000255
atp-munar-vs-djokovic-2025-10-08
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak Djokovic
77,371,514
77,372,409
d46cd38e71bb149dd000cc5122bf7ac430e0e162
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xf9be81fc4f99b4edb00f5d6ba757afb453a519328718eca354bc765df135496c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov | Event: us-open-jannik-sinner-vs-denis-shapovalov-2025-08-30 | Choice: shapovalov | Confidence: 2.02...
rinderknech
0
atp-rinderknech-vacherot-2025-10-12
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot
77,581,055
77,589,289
b20d47daa77ee9be27f6afecdef7bf76cad1cd50
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x79bda8a6e6e2fa42136d057c9c7c40cff62816a56d5115ce506f8024e0f12555
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov | Event: us-open-jannik-sinner-vs-denis-shapovalov-2025-08-30 | Choice: shapovalov | Confidence: 2.0244540035879196e-05 2. Question: Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | Event: will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | ...
no
0.999912
ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01?
77,589,289
77,589,289
1863bda80e7ba99564a1c2e070ea4c417ec4d2be
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x835e31515768c1d9bf8835f81b5769c1015a4f3c7b0a23ea1acad0495c7477af
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | Event: will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.5014318633375096e-05 2. Question: US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Jiri Lehecka | Event: us-open-adrian-mannarino-vs-jiri-lehecka-2025-08-31 | Choice: ma...
no
1
ucl-kar-kob-2025-10-01
Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01?
77,589,289
77,589,289
df7b98758c45b47aca1d7f92e9936fd4f5384923
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xd2bd058d786afc205147c7227bb59b5b04ddba444244a0e6d246d8fa416c130c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Jiri Lehecka | Event: us-open-adrian-mannarino-vs-jiri-lehecka-2025-08-31 | Choice: mannarino | Confidence: 1.7333303288940965e-06 2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31? | Event: lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0002480883185655459 3. Qu...
no
1
uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11?
77,589,289
77,589,289
62cf5afa2027dd4e9b8477145b83cd1fa6d837be
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x257b919bc57dad6083914874f9f5b6e6588efbdc7c093b78ac247057fcf09a19
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31? | Event: lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0002480883185655459 2. Question: Will Highland Falls win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Antiquarian...
yes
0.0005
fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14
Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-14?
77,667,483
77,667,483
9bece57b0b34319e3d0b36b8f1b406beffbb33ce
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x29b7499e5175523b83716c2acb6e401c84866035c9f900540b7f1baa08b95027
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Highland Falls win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Antiquarian win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Questio...
no
0
fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14
Will Korea Republic vs. Paraguay end in a draw?
77,667,483
77,667,483
b2f550c06d92da89e5bc4dd1f5e14cf63a5b852b
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xbb56299d0ebe4ce4516b0d1b1c4691726c13fc528cf32b6fb73e50f33701aa50
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Antiquarian win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Sierra Leone win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question:...
no
0
fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14?
77,667,483
77,667,483
72161bce82be7ad89293519af99d9a22a47b6e2d
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xe42177e0df676c57bb1be2fb3c681455c95633cbf6fd4c4535b5896e43048d14
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Sierra Leone win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Contrary Thinking win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Ques...
no
0
fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14
Will Japan win on 2025-10-14?
77,667,699
77,667,757
f8ca9b29e85aca385698b30e0853f90dea79bd80
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xc19c26fe06dc7f41aac5a075554ef842d407ad924478234e98e6f3325c0c03e9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Contrary Thinking win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Mindframe win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Questio...
no
0.000266
fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14
Will Brazil win on 2025-10-14?
77,667,699
77,726,159
db1dd1c606bb63d966197acf32ad0995802233d6
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x3a58af8821ee796cb4f1f7d88a890dcd307fe7fa6d51675cd1cde49dca0eb41e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Mindframe win the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup? | Event: horse-racing-jockey-club-gold-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur | Event: us-open-felix-auger-aliassime-vs-alex-de-minaur-2025-09-03 | Choice: aliassime | Confidence...
no
0
cof-jam-ber-2025-10-14
Will Jamaica win on 2025-10-14?
77,687,415
77,687,415
40822a1ae75c9105622c5b19a500cc30d41b5714
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x18f9f564494fd7a22d224ae40957155495bbe7807037deeadb34c55465e14d61
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur | Event: us-open-felix-auger-aliassime-vs-alex-de-minaur-2025-09-03 | Choice: aliassime | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek | Event: us-open-amanda-anisimova-vs-iga-swiatek-2025-09-03 | Choice: swiatek | Conf...
top esports
0.000001
lol-tes-100-2025-10-16
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1)
77,748,069
77,748,783
23cb321e69d68f8cd7a0abf4c621d6d6ff5256d9
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0xf41aef905326d834c0dabb4f3771010d289a9d66792944581c3346bd6a923c5a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek | Event: us-open-amanda-anisimova-vs-iga-swiatek-2025-09-03 | Choice: swiatek | Confidence: 8.93337706965857e-07 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.863591027...
no
0
bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?
77,767,222
77,767,222
eff7ae1fa41e1c391b8d1bb9ab61ba0f4b0986ce
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x16e7f4d65ff83b09ab81793a40af40e6e1bc86bbe8a53410dab8d639c19022fb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-1pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.863591027521123e-05 2. Question: US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula | Event: us-open-aryna-sabalenka-vs-jessica-pegula-2025-09-04 | Choice: pegula | Confidence: 3.34668...
no
0.000001
fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17?
77,811,177
77,814,358
51e2f5e55c7b55e57276802b71fa19d7067f8013
0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad
0x17acda56c743b9ded56267ddf5dfff711e4202366bee0ffc77ba26d07a036b55
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula | Event: us-open-aryna-sabalenka-vs-jessica-pegula-2025-09-04 | Choice: pegula | Confidence: 3.346682521139971e-06 2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho | Event: ufc-fight-night-imavov-vs-borralho | Choice: imavov | Confidence: 3.75475970...
no
0.000004
fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-17?
77,811,863
77,813,179