sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bf286f154a0b99c45779a72be54e50790417aac8 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x26dc77f48f29b266d65e3f84ee451918753698a22719ee883dae7df919ce9861 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho | Event: ufc-fight-night-imavov-vs-borralho | Choice: imavov | Confidence: 3.754759703065062e-06
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy | Event: ufc-fight-night-imavov-vs-borralho | Choice: saint denis | Confidence: 4.761353805250154e-07
3. Qu... | no | 0 | fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | 77,812,637 | 77,812,637 |
f1852bcf7b4f12fb145e6a86e37a29c976f928c8 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xcbd6ed1698e9653bc6a2cd23bd67b6709f25c20dc094becaf817a9bcb7909e4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy | Event: ufc-fight-night-imavov-vs-borralho | Choice: saint denis | Confidence: 4.761353805250154e-07
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.637918374676626e-06
3. Que... | yes | 0.0001 | epl-not-che-2025-10-18 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | 77,842,403 | 77,842,403 |
86250d282cc9f40494ada8ce299cabb95e66f223 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xd650496e350a77123f752108827b70a0c623df112d3f8ce50d46f8b29d76249c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.637918374676626e-06
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-bre-che-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | Even... | no | 0.000007 | epl-cry-bou-2025-10-18 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-18? | 77,848,323 | 77,848,895 |
ec0ed339650172369048bbe3fee868ca6e70e06a | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xa56e1fe57a12896eba18552998ac4d11dbb7a2b2b1f986e3fcc29f9eee4c3292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-bre-che-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9973439662776216
3. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Eve... | no | 0 | epl-bri-new-2025-10-18 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-18? | 77,848,652 | 77,848,709 |
281d999a07965d5477bf141e7bfc92d874bca95a | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x8d86613a1182d8cfd2ccb1bc64dfc8a3019238236ec2e53e407b5700f0c7a69d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9973439662776216
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1507538333073533
3. Question: Will Liverpool... | no | 0 | epl-cry-bou-2025-10-18 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-18? | 77,848,709 | 77,848,951 |
8bf7232b46b582efb7df69e6023bf955e0ac3d30 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xfc2bd5a3018fbdf90ad3d5568816e1fd35376716aa5494a0f8f8d4ed686af667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1507538333073533
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.733340960451105e-07
3. Question: Will Manc... | yes | 0.000002 | epl-bri-new-2025-10-18 | Will Brighton win on 2025-10-18? | 77,848,895 | 77,848,951 |
29f21ad31a32a05c0400c83447f4e2cb0b23ea68 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xcf4d7d5cc151fa692b0053eada5220af5fc0fd5b05519ebc61c1e0eac52ade4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.733340960451105e-07
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.98511706442276e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Septembe... | no | 0.2 | epl-sun-wol-2025-10-18 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-18? | 77,849,159 | 77,849,159 |
f58a81ab9e12346cae2cbc3e4b3bf9d37ceca3f4 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x37909bd6936ea8acc27bf9746c225f07ff5abd2a278af716e2d67328f662211e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.98511706442276e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.7031609560854345e-05
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.000007 | lal-bar-gir-2025-10-18 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-18? | 77,849,294 | 77,849,524 |
24b4152f10d43392b0e1400f59221cbb02fd2090 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xddd9a305e695d152af7e669cb8064739e4d5a3b6c07b88e5216ae91ee1db145d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-22-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.7031609560854345e-05
2. Question: Will Alysha Clark win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year? | Event: wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0 | lal-bar-gir-2025-10-18 | Will Barcelona vs. Girona end in a draw? | 77,849,456 | 77,849,456 |
6dfb38e0e83f0cb0f20e3dde3a6671d09701d26e | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x0be5d719f00b9034e704961ba8134c38a4dcf05afa5c35951e42dce7db08bed9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alysha Clark win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year? | Event: wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kayla Thornton win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year? | Event: wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jordin Canad... | no | 0 | epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18? | 77,850,677 | 77,850,677 |
50ecc8a66a7a047b55b1c448b1d7e8d8fd918d67 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x639f1bc3871c0cdb5d174228af9d712167dac1c4c6153bafc45a77e51210ca72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kayla Thornton win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year? | Event: wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jordin Canada win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year? | Event: wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa... | no | 0.000012 | sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | 77,852,495 | 77,852,751 |
d3890edec9f7f1dde12cac113120ffa43117a05d | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x006273b573b6b319e17fcaf65e7710c8a07138e78ae0aebbce15d15f3553cb33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jordin Canada win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year? | Event: wnba-sixth-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Vikings vs. Browns | Event: nfl-min-cle-202... | movistar koi | 0.03661 | lol-mkoi-fnc-2025-10-19 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) | 77,881,114 | 77,881,134 |
5369b3cc07dffc08089712bdc7e60b399f04a155 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x8c4d6227b2506171a0ad96acfbe5c4ffbd4fa4b462ef8b3e61df617812a1fd30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Vikings vs. Browns | Event: nfl-min-cle-2025-10-05 | Choice: browns | Confidence: 2.7659234945561406e-05
3. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Lin Zhu vs Maya Joint | Event: wta-zhu-vs-jo... | yes | 0.000022 | epl-tot-ast-2025-10-19 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? | 77,887,293 | 77,887,402 |
a782f21f274035e8aba7d8bf2936406564e920d6 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x0eb0d3c30973d7aefbbcc646ae090b7c03afd2989bf16645e4cf7e26ebec7427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Vikings vs. Browns | Event: nfl-min-cle-2025-10-05 | Choice: browns | Confidence: 2.7659234945561406e-05
2. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Lin Zhu vs Maya Joint | Event: wta-zhu-vs-joint-2025-10-06 | Choice: joint | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak Djoko... | no | 0.015981 | epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? | 77,891,915 | 77,893,864 |
764ff4bb3d4768aaf2b9fab88727650a81fbe6ed | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x32f99548d831beb65fc38bdcf55f8420b72edfe4309f6853c4070ee912c95146 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wuhan Tennis Open: Lin Zhu vs Maya Joint | Event: wta-zhu-vs-joint-2025-10-06 | Choice: joint | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak Djokovic | Event: atp-munar-vs-djokovic-2025-10-08 | Choice: munar | Confidence: 0.00025537320375421823
3. Question: Shangh... | yes | 0.000001 | epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? | 77,892,008 | 77,893,864 |
c31dddf5559fa095a251b11ee281700fc3ed5b39 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x0eb1bd2515653f038ed51e05a473a0dad2e5ec94b7f5cb92384f8bb8728cfe70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak Djokovic | Event: atp-munar-vs-djokovic-2025-10-08 | Choice: munar | Confidence: 0.00025537320375421823
2. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-rinderknech-vacherot-2025-10-12 | Choice: rinderknech ... | no | 0 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19? | 77,898,076 | 77,898,076 |
bb51441074e71a2ccfac3bf0124a3dc1fcf2c435 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xc15a24d1576b84a0ae8896d2e2f89d33cf2ab84e20c358269945725204ba2442 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-rinderknech-vacherot-2025-10-12 | Choice: rinderknech | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999124319056059
3. Questi... | yes | 0.021283 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 77,901,095 | 77,903,966 |
c9d14820ac7328b76ef15f75ff220a625f30fed5 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x3f5d83005852c283cfed78ae3e452ffb2663711b2e28ce86890fa29cca61a218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999124319056059
2. Question: Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-kar-kob-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-t... | yes | 0.000026 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | 77,942,116 | 77,942,125 |
a7d997fc1b947748f8d97704b2f2d74a7cbd5af7 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x5bcc643bfdc14b8c672cbf981c2464dd3e889eb398c7298ccf6eff24c56dcda2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-kar-kob-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Choice: y... | no | 0.000002 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | 77,942,177 | 77,942,791 |
f14df72c709da9d1336cbf1ad569ccdf3d2aafd9 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xc40cbb2d7f5d2c43c624bd5b1d0b18cd3d0682b3937363ec7c1ad1d13bee107e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-bul-tur-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0005000751249619347
3. Question: Will Korea Republic vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Event:... | no | 0 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 77,978,479 | 77,978,520 |
c60636f21dc7b9f1830d4d0d28d42264bf6bf743 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xffa740e3ea988ac69dcbffd101bd79e3ffaebb84b10442b40a7d42db6ad1220c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0005000751249619347
2. Question: Will Korea Republic vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? ... | no | 0 | ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | 77,980,319 | 77,981,752 |
746d12bc3df84e4cff99aa0383395b52f328ea84 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x971b14ff03996a43df007e51fa2a67602b350ce6aded880932cfbe5359dad13c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Korea Republic vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-jpn-bra-2... | yes | 0.00001 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21? | 77,984,919 | 77,985,102 |
25bf6ab5eaf393c33a60e251a68d373c9fc12394 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x9fc7409858de8572111082603e165c85e3a6078009db880a5fe5fb57d6c4c3c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Brazil win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14 | Choice... | no | 0.000001 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | 77,984,968 | 77,986,786 |
67fef9e198e4808dd6835e5f6cb8547670f4d694 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xaa99f96e063cdb4d368188ad3fc4b33c002c624f9dcf60976b9a33329a637d05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Brazil win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0002655779061855013
3. Question: Will Jamaica win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-jam-ber-2025-10-1... | no | 0.00023 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? | 77,985,102 | 77,985,102 |
e8d42bd5db56b99085623bb2daaa099ae0cc3744 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xdaddf65306936d5e8e47eeddebb35c97cf8d5901709ae60419126803e4131a17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brazil win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0002655779061855013
2. Question: Will Jamaica win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-jam-ber-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | Event: lol-tes-100-2... | g2 esports | 0 | lol-g2-fly-2025-10-22 | LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) | 78,011,322 | 78,015,810 |
70a452320ba092a4ed6240adbc1f5ddb130741a8 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x5e65e02946fafe079d48d7343f3ff08cc92a10602f71bb9f5adf5ee29b3edc1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jamaica win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-jam-ber-2025-10-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | Event: lol-tes-100-2025-10-16 | Choice: top esports | Confidence: 6.082620530316032e-07
3. Question: Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a d... | yes | 0.000001 | ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | 78,023,586 | 78,026,257 |
2db24092ae127488c5c19c6cd7547d46dbaa6b47 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x344b92fb5f46a83c32a954fb4c42f0945d784a5681c4fe710f169225f5caba7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | Event: lol-tes-100-2025-10-16 | Choice: top esports | Confidence: 6.082620530316032e-07
2. Question: Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC... | no | 0 | ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,026,316 | 78,026,464 |
0b409736b6e08c5e8ead520bb74e90b48ef90f97 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xc49d31f486b072eb18b2a32b63cf3456543f46f56cb044e89d122ba0f54e9aa7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | Event: bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.79104695758454e-07
3. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace wi... | yes | 0.000001 | ucl-cfc-aja-2025-10-22 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,027,035 | 78,028,526 |
c6daf271cbb491b7ba8861785da2947ca7234f0a | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xd7cab9a5e86fa6aceb4a8f5b14f6e6f8a326592c8a644710a02a67efb6f126f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.79104695758454e-07
2. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.891289205635482e-06
3. Question: Will Paris Sai... | no | 0 | ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | 78,027,689 | 78,027,845 |
9c9090b7ae708285413d221c309149e2b8f9ebd1 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xc938e944f8594fd68984f3eb54416f6cf293927aeec63950cbd7f697dabf8205 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-17? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.891289205635482e-06
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Notti... | no | 0 | ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-22? | 78,028,227 | 78,028,227 |
9d21a09d4c0e2454b05c181c39b7ee7a216ca221 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x9c7ed54c877a58a3f738147bc8735a61091ae5f1f61440d3eea62afff36c0990 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | Event: fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-not-che-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00010004000100189985
3. Question: Will Crysta... | movistar koi | 0.000003 | lol-mkoi-tsw-2025-10-23 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) | 78,054,456 | 78,054,456 |
1b06d7235b9974e356caa5612d9139e43bbb4ab2 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x2c786f3a82f79980c7621fa2e6b463198edb080d3ac6360ce069395d110ece34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-not-che-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00010004000100189985
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-cry-bou-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.5106393058040745e-06
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on... | yes | 0.000001 | sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? | 78,113,677 | 78,113,861 |
d6baeb71d0bdaf113935d29badbe323346d0ae01 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x17d98f09c6a309865f9151c0f89412f31afd07afd25cc2073e59832fc1ccfea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-cry-bou-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.5106393058040745e-06
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-bri-new-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-... | no | 0 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | 78,113,961 | 78,114,932 |
d4f907df71385a51400d7a6e0946472e8c1a6786 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x99e3093706de6d738f6ed2f4db939558002f6cf5914226ccfccdedbfd6c93d03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-bri-new-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-cry-bou-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-bri-new-2025-10-18 | Choi... | no | 0.000001 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 78,114,382 | 78,114,397 |
4859f758787cb957e2852ddc37022e3732c32353 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xa696b4ed502d38afcd01e6bae64e1ff5eab31b99dbf88b43c51b822b221245ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-cry-bou-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-bri-new-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.810042342763236e-06
3. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-s... | timberwolves | 0 | nba-min-lal-2025-10-24 | Timberwolves vs. Lakers | 78,126,667 | 78,126,667 |
4593ac7de47f31451ef67aa8f6777020f666b831 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x12899fadc50f47afa5f8e145380a9c6f0262d75ea12749bbbcb4f8b50f96cf6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-bri-new-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.810042342763236e-06
2. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-sun-wol-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-18? | Event: lal-bar... | pelicans | 0 | nba-sas-nop-2025-10-24 | Spurs vs. Pelicans | 78,126,910 | 78,127,442 |
083a6013896d34b91d7b3bbca216590bda5eaf97 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xbd4763bffb9fec9c9a8a157101fd0ebd7b54eeb64eac1c8a8b8f26018cfbfe4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-sun-wol-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-18? | Event: lal-bar-gir-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.789662722714753e-06
3. Question: Will Barcelona vs. Girona end in a draw? | Event:... | no | 0.000002 | bun-moe-bay-2025-10-25 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? | 78,148,155 | 78,148,250 |
870e9f914732eed6d252584a792dc04d19c92d93 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x1b0ec1837dbb55c9cc459e7c16025b07f803497f6ba001f548d90731a5d022cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-18? | Event: lal-bar-gir-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.789662722714753e-06
2. Question: Will Barcelona vs. Girona end in a draw? | Event: lal-bar-gir-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-fu... | no | 0.000021 | epl-new-ful-2025-10-25 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-25? | 78,148,221 | 78,148,221 |
1346b9dc20dcdf3b8c6bb18389f6669a27a8727c | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x5a0f9776be6c742291ec44debf3b4c56f6c3b9271e96b073eeb80ea6b38caeb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona vs. Girona end in a draw? | Event: lal-bar-gir-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Cho... | yes | 0.000003 | epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | 78,148,221 | 78,148,510 |
76a1e676db211181c1c755e45a0ca2afac2bdb70 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x4cef0ac44f4a10a958b3f676ce945a0ffe1b16d0e7eac0abcf432bce7b99ea77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.1698220485770138e-05
3. Question: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) | Event: lol-mkoi-fnc-202... | no | 0 | epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | 78,159,560 | 78,159,560 |
68497a0e25505c47aa98697a898bbe54af566244 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.1698220485770138e-05
2. Question: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) | Event: lol-mkoi-fnc-2025-10-19 | Choice: movistar koi | Confidence: 0.03661043911004349
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-... | no | 0 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,239,799 | 78,272,476 |
7c1e1dfe58cc0145f2a4043b399acec64aeb1b41 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x31e0d4320eb9666e93e20f989061f3eee82e80de9caff260cdeb9c0a4946093b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) | Event: lol-mkoi-fnc-2025-10-19 | Choice: movistar koi | Confidence: 0.03661043911004349
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-ast-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.1647027967126354e-05
3. Question: Will Manchester United win... | no | 0 | over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | 78,242,978 | 78,316,207 |
5c83da823bbd7aa79e6b53121b929f8791d327e7 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x3d39d9321a8c4531c50f41f5bc2320cbfcc6694bce63d0430406baf249f04e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-ast-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.1647027967126354e-05
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.015980730591848367
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-1... | yes | 0.000003 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | 78,246,620 | 78,247,847 |
fd6ea8f38e3541aafcd2409c47acc89991df73a5 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x9ec79e0dbc452cb04959efbdc28249a5b34e86ac8e12ce38e9e632c47b8f8649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.015980730591848367
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.007453607442778e-07
3. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19... | no | 0 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Real Betis vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | 78,246,765 | 78,246,819 |
2b304ebb312e8820c9933500fc98218ba42391cf | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xf6b7380d59a66a9d4e3edde4ddbb93341b71cd23f55cf81c7453ef623588a6e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.007453607442778e-07
2. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidenti... | gen.g | 0.000002 | lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) | 78,267,873 | 78,270,882 |
7ce5824c095f2072499405052cb71cda4f0edb12 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x6ef34d5c7937cb8a1eb22234ddce8fe3eb1595e1f35c7d4f2101c58f3506e580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.021283365391595657
3. Question: Will West Ham w... | no | 0.000001 | fed-decision-in-october | No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | 78,272,111 | 78,279,030 |
a412252ce234564f6fa911a4052cddd7b9631505 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x17414b5654467cc23ac6e5cba7ecf87952ea12ea08a8e09fbfef5f3b218e2bab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.021283365391595657
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.564168312008e-05
3. Questio... | yes | 0.000001 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,272,678 | 78,277,428 |
92437872b0dbb4dff3674d37175e2a2ae5e9a00c | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xdd05f5d5996df430308d5566a83bba6d5dfb96081e6cd9b08f0d722eaa84c264 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.564168312008e-05
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.7097896509760543e-06
3. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayo... | no | 0 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,272,678 | 78,277,428 |
8066b25a869247afa706bb67f7ba0c4a57b25184 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x7d4d6916fa50ad0be01c1c065a6b3ad95f5d444c18fc6b766a99d31173469303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.7097896509760543e-06
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 20... | yes | 0.000009 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,272,678 | 78,331,619 |
0961480fce5483238615081cb40263aa2f4ad906 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x37297ec2ec2f77707f999de7db7ae58dd4c7ddd1a0222eae605da9c8d7f87283 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.3091164259302753e-08
3. Question: Will Club Atlético de Ma... | yes | 0 | sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | 78,286,375 | 78,286,683 |
449486b395c4e6ffbc8ade56c3d8e9cdb286add2 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x6a8c775d3a7ab901a5c4595dbc33478d654dc3b293be2b80fd64500cabbfcc37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.3091164259302753e-08
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.000290000100869e-05
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC wi... | yes | 0.000004 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,316,654 | 78,316,654 |
24632dc4d60e09e208897382eac3043db113eec0 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x82ae2c86d5a8d8e98350c96a5ae151c1a6bd14e18df3370492231d1709c0a425 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.000290000100869e-05
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.110877699567993e-07
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC vs. C... | no | 0 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | 78,322,310 | 78,322,310 |
12db79485f58053bd8a80b54cccbb2cf660c8290 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x3a774977a7c45f48e9838f4353c551e25d5eec0604dc1a772d232bd4cb19bffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.110877699567993e-07
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00022959013340864936
3. Question: LoL: G2 Es... | no | 0 | epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? | 78,350,777 | 78,351,670 |
f6a162bdd260e9a18d914bbf79a1324fd6a0c0e8 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x3e5c6207058d1d84acedccaae83f6710c705b01a37371cf17b009c5afaeb5247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00022959013340864936
2. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) | Event: lol-g2-fly-2025-10-22 | Choice: g2 esports | Confidence: 3.463681650432825e-07
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Will Fulham win on 2025-11-01? | 78,350,777 | 78,351,670 |
5c05d3373b9b83f6af465bccc2b557be59125583 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x48f708ff3a0cfb627453f3ba90d5bfe68ded0106d5f8156584f5e0d1eba33435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) | Event: lol-g2-fly-2025-10-22 | Choice: g2 esports | Confidence: 3.463681650432825e-07
2. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.342660809881015e-07
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win o... | no | 0 | epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Will Fulham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 78,350,777 | 78,351,670 |
53f4976cf4f5c2dd161b908148083ff2ec48918c | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x8537a730944579ad641994d6cbb14a636e1fdafc7615aa95d779018ae2d6191a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.342660809881015e-07
2. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: u... | g2 esports | 0.056975 | lol-g2-tes-2025-10-30 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | 78,351,550 | 78,351,587 |
cc22ec88032677ab2acdad57a254edfbbd755c4a | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x4c3b5588a22b68625fee213f021c76d1d56a97e5f04d3f4577f694e8321f7713 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-cfc-aja-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.145729014998602e-07
3. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Even... | bublik | 0.000001 | atp-fritz-bublik-2025-10-30 | Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik | 78,367,952 | 78,368,574 |
7ab359f2f8c91a68057853706115d0fd2b2047e7 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xe9f65845afcf9ea3de2ee6f3a34fbfbd9c279c440464df82d9c10b26466265c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-cfc-aja-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.145729014998602e-07
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.7362492908966265e-08
3. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt w... | sonego | 0.000002 | atp-sonego-medvede-2025-10-30 | Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniil Medvedev | 78,371,274 | 78,373,874 |
ceae30a28ff20d29dfbda8398e418500b55c086c | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x86ec1db838010b191ceaa37b01581a4fd5735a3eb4051bc1c3e7e6fe253ff6df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.7362492908966265e-08
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Wha... | no | 0 | spl-hil-sha-2025-10-31 | Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-10-31? | 78,393,640 | 78,393,640 |
553cdc045101586f3f5d62e979d459adbfde5fb6 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x5fc82536b8cc14e17477a5d3b4e1030622019f782acfc9d245beb385b68e784b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) | Event: lol-mkoi-tsw-2025-10-23 | Choice: movistar koi | Confidence: 2.7573221496346945e-06
3. Question: Will AC Milan win on ... | hawks | 0 | nba-atl-ind-2025-10-31 | Hawks vs. Pacers | 78,408,996 | 78,408,996 |
eb70cee2260d0f1c28239df5b619c3d90f026fa3 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x569728cdd7eddc45f3ae9745cf30317d538881d51a8fcee9233200615e7ba551 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) | Event: lol-mkoi-tsw-2025-10-23 | Choice: movistar koi | Confidence: 2.7573221496346945e-06
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? | Event: sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.219401482641749e-07
3. Question: Will Leeds Un... | bublik | 0 | atp-bublik-minaur-2025-10-31 | Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur | 78,409,687 | 78,416,765 |
c81871b240d06feeafdcb71b86762d4eb75ca0fd | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xf8214563f9b56ec2b5c5cd44f8758bab551713467d87f80e325314a1885564b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? | Event: sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.219401482641749e-07
2. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.8132802555697046e-07
3. Question: Will Leeds United vs. West Ham en... | shelton | 0 | atp-shelton-sinner-2025-10-31 | Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner | 78,415,284 | 78,415,869 |
a7da9a8464a7e64d4f7602b64183bf946389e234 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xf8567eedd8a1d65f67dc5c0cca54e3b5d7ceb1101f13ad39cc9cfb6e22a4ecfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.8132802555697046e-07
2. Question: Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.222226093829569e-07
3. Question: Timberwolves vs. Lake... | medvedev | 0 | atp-medvede-zverev-2025-10-31 | Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev | 78,419,196 | 78,422,019 |
29b61860d12c72e1a9743c0e460b7a048a61e0e7 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x29d15cd3baca180265c9ef079eb49716ee9c768159a9294b1cced875ca47af6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.222226093829569e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Event: nba-min-lal-2025-10-24 | Choice: timberwolves | Confidence: 2.350355774136983e-07
3. Question: Spurs vs. Pelicans | Even... | gen.g | 0 | lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | 78,438,367 | 78,444,099 |
365200cb7d5486d752c85ca25d4c36f09f3b5abc | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x94c258cf9d1983e4b470fdbbbab9635f862305df4ba9b45767011bde9b718222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Event: nba-min-lal-2025-10-24 | Choice: timberwolves | Confidence: 2.350355774136983e-07
2. Question: Spurs vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-sas-nop-2025-10-24 | Choice: pelicans | Confidence: 4.065785883821705e-08
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? | Event... | auger-aliassime | 0 | atp-augeral-bublik-2025-11-01 | Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Bublik | 78,451,548 | 78,453,292 |
2e60521fab57febc3eea084c25f6e9b70eebda37 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x0eb64f96119793960339f7b86d0b1500432206173f34e74f0d63b252e5ff188f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spurs vs. Pelicans | Event: nba-sas-nop-2025-10-24 | Choice: pelicans | Confidence: 4.065785883821705e-08
2. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-moe-bay-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.8336622600063714e-06
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-25? | Even... | no | 0.000008 | epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | 78,452,732 | 78,453,269 |
38eb0de5af39a3188245edbae759ce36852add1d | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x51fca26bfb303236808470edef8f061512fe5a762ec4a1c8571e7592223c392c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-moe-bay-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.8336622600063714e-06
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.0502912955274708e-05
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25... | yes | 0.000012 | epl-tot-che-2025-11-01 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01? | 78,460,171 | 78,460,171 |
a4ba625cb2932c0c7c7d28b5abf0aae29bfb372e | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.0502912955274708e-05
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.649699045685216e-06
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | E... | yes | 0.000004 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 78,463,732 | 78,463,732 |
7711d0e0fcb4e022c8217f6ecb5071396f712b5a | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xc699baaa01bf53dc25d2efa47dd7b459125d3148c49a50b7abaab0790f4a2392 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.649699045685216e-06
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 202... | top esports | 0 | lol-t1-tes-2025-11-02 | LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | 78,480,999 | 78,483,175 |
6dd389b55f9b3c4d27067e35c8be7fa353d83b2c | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x92c371651cd5be5c333901f1ba0c672b838128095d90843a104722a7af0e57d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.155828589615357e-08
3. Question: Over $1B committed to... | yes | 0.00001 | epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Will West Ham win on 2025-11-02? | 78,496,348 | 78,496,348 |
919be151c070b3e4c03632afe06005e499ce2e51 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xacc2e3e1667f5c05cd7440de4c823d8e16007c7ef2deca9d1178919648de9013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.155828589615357e-08
2. Question: Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Event: over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | auger-aliassime | 0 | atp-augeral-sinner-2025-11-02 | Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner | 78,497,286 | 78,497,286 |
cc94248fb00fb26397f8aae0f817e9b4fa45f86e | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xa0dbd54edfb620c76e8e7dcc49b594a4a66d45ffc94464ddb2a0511772f64d50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Event: over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.0720044571687556e-07
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.8644494096007984e-06
3. ... | pegula | 0 | wta-gauff-pegula-2025-11-02 | WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula | 78,499,673 | 78,500,674 |
f5dcee9b6c714facd28cc9ed73b5ab4ea6b87933 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x6cab2815986c03f26680424ea259f0ab37e2d1c55daf53f9cb19d2a7ddf9a709 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.8644494096007984e-06
2. Question: Will Real Betis vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Espo... | south africa | 0.000001 | criwwc-ind-zaf-2025-11-02 | Women's Cricket World Cup Final Stage: India vs South Africa (Game Final) | 78,501,218 | 78,501,218 |
8b008f7cb5fd323b36b188057607d39c01fb95d8 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x07b913bc6a838c95aa40a477578ef84b8b9c27ed0f91ffe43a99d2a7b835accb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 2.323359654218186e-06
3. Question: No change in Fed interest ra... | tabilo | 0 | atp-tabilo-walton-2025-11-02 | Hellenic Championship: Alejandro Tabilo vs Adam Walton | 78,501,646 | 78,502,042 |
f00643fc7c08b46ecc0c10a8e5a8dbdbce465fff | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x2c166d3c443f34b2f851f838dc8d00ba6cc887540e4f4fa55d3a3a595463f47f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) | Event: lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 2.323359654218186e-06
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.578809098627859e-07
3. Question: ... | popyrin | 0.000001 | atp-popyrin-korda-2025-11-02 | Hellenic Championship: Alexei Popyrin vs Sebastian Korda | 78,502,836 | 78,504,128 |
1a30057665d62392da7614a3a8aa5df8df8d51b4 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x09293493eebe2dba65aee40b96a37af9e0e925791dc0356b324e8015bf0d6196 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.578809098627859e-07
2. Question: Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice:... | lions | 0 | nfl-min-det-2025-11-02 | Vikings vs. Lions | 78,506,039 | 78,506,383 |
c99ace26f12426662ac99aef64f3084777d950ca | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x57a9913b354c2d3a5e3cb7a766393a153bc086794fa5fdaf41df8fbd711b434b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.2392141506208957e-06
2. Question: Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: ne... | fearnley | 0.000001 | atp-dzumhur-fearnle-2025-11-02 | Hellenic Championship: Damir Dzumhur vs Jacob Fearnley | 78,535,532 | 78,535,532 |
6cf483bea2ff5150f3c8aa8179dd41daef1193b7 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x9cfc4382d7e9962f470d18c209785bce662dfb58c0e0b10d2d6ef76fec962244 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-p... | djere | 0.000003 | atp-spizzir-djere-2025-11-03 | Hellenic Championship: Eliot Spizzirri vs Laslo Djere | 78,537,816 | 78,538,337 |
bb453f93472b9c762574fb2133dcbdb90fc13f30 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x1a0d17ec64c0727ad5b43276318a8a2a4c084f5828f9e2b54ee9f61eb23d2e38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 9.34963374183345e-06
2. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.... | rybakina | 0 | wta-swiatek-rybakin-2025-11-03 | WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina | 78,539,339 | 78,539,951 |
d3478cd6cb9189263f4644ff611777a6183b8ba7 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x2405744d6023f49e0ed43ec2b21ae7425576d4af6ee364440bb8b90a1dd22e6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.347135740924976e-07
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.105406358950072e-06
3. Question: Wil... | royer | 0 | atp-royer-norrie-2025-11-02 | Open de Moselle: Valentin Royer vs Cameron Norrie | 78,545,283 | 78,546,282 |
b43b7f762250d1592b3060c4820a554d263bedb2 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x34756c2d4576dcd3d931263fab42545fff3be217728b0cff3d69177ead6815c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.105406358950072e-06
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0... | mcdonald | 0 | atp-mcdonal-etcheve-2025-11-04 | Hellenic Championship: Mackenzie McDonald vs Tomas Etcheverry | 78,578,920 | 78,581,742 |
faef14fe452a8138f96b839fe8ba64b3b038d9a9 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x09ccd8f8bf3b9ef83fca7d345438eafdcefffee76eaf26589ceaa2e9fc080509 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl... | moutet | 0 | atp-moutet-vukic-2025-11-02 | Open de Moselle: Corentin Moutet vs Aleksandar Vukic | 78,584,413 | 78,590,741 |
4e62224236f61cd0a8b813852e5ec68745bd466b | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x30b90a4f4306808b5a22829df004e33bf2b8bf9cfa004949550fbda8a17f762d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Fulham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice:... | pegula | 0 | wta-sabalen-pegula-2025-11-03 | WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula | 78,587,066 | 78,587,243 |
8dd1c8039c0a35bbd3c0cdd5492d2deb842d5458 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x171a625561abb5e8d7384c01e4084acc09f7d0db5a72f73b563cd7f1e0647064 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lol-g2-tes-2025-10-30 | Ch... | tabilo | 0.000001 | atp-djokovi-tabilo-2025-11-04 | Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Alejandro Tabilo | 78,588,807 | 78,588,947 |
59c3b296271dee0682b0d823345f901eb3ac38d3 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x11b23abc3ee86536a0196e5dabe59bb19cc19ac637198f703f95aaf5593e7062 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lol-g2-tes-2025-10-30 | Choice: g2 esports | Confidence: 0.0569745472112965
3. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexand... | borges | 0.000001 | atp-spizzir-borges-2025-11-04 | Hellenic Championship: Eliot Spizzirri vs Nuno Borges | 78,591,810 | 78,591,810 |
f24849580e9835d21a8cc5acc7330b81fc59c6e4 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xe6545277579b37381b20797a8b3950034fc56e064d60c05c0c774d1aadc03df8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lol-g2-tes-2025-10-30 | Choice: g2 esports | Confidence: 0.0569745472112965
2. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik | Event: atp-fritz-bublik-2025-10-30 | Choice: bublik | Confidence: 6.586351148398337e-07
3. Question: R... | norrie | 0 | atp-cazaux-norrie-2025-11-04 | Open de Moselle: Arthur Cazaux vs Cameron Norrie | 78,595,577 | 78,596,455 |
e990cecb1db54869136b0e3818298073089b970f | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x34e00873d02218d0b1a288fc579426bf8d85f6dd1d34c09d2c135c28d46932ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik | Event: atp-fritz-bublik-2025-10-30 | Choice: bublik | Confidence: 6.586351148398337e-07
2. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniil Medvedev | Event: atp-sonego-medvede-2025-10-30 | Choice: sonego | Confidence: 2.091359599... | no | 0 | zohran-mamdani-margin-of-victory-in-2025-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? | 78,602,071 | 78,602,558 |
8221171178f23d23be0f9fdb70b1acd15140c838 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xc0bb48cbe15ac8483d5111ac41360a02eb1a4ad516ba20dbf2862651079f78ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniil Medvedev | Event: atp-sonego-medvede-2025-10-30 | Choice: sonego | Confidence: 2.091359599646936e-06
2. Question: Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-10-31? | Event: spl-hil-sha-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pa... | no | 0 | zohran-mamdani-margin-of-victory-in-2025-new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? | 78,602,071 | 78,602,829 |
9ca270cdc91c3a9f44059e8e880fe7c4cde19a15 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x88495bc7b3b737c4535892bb66428f461984570794f6e15d01c935cac93f30b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-10-31? | Event: spl-hil-sha-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hawks vs. Pacers | Event: nba-atl-ind-2025-10-31 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur | Event: atp-bublik-... | yes | 0.000001 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,632,207 | 78,633,382 |
35830aa44fa515a5930f79e71e8e8915be73e104 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x21cbf00dff437e801fbe6176398cbdd42b43767cd623d579a25aaead0e958585 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hawks vs. Pacers | Event: nba-atl-ind-2025-10-31 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur | Event: atp-bublik-minaur-2025-10-31 | Choice: bublik | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner | Eve... | no | 0.000002 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05? | 78,632,220 | 78,633,376 |
4abff24dff9faf44f68230d8c3f86da7fa992266 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x446cc07b5ec5d90c6f897c1ab7193b142193fc8f2e383e78b30b661da5f47326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur | Event: atp-bublik-minaur-2025-10-31 | Choice: bublik | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner | Event: atp-shelton-sinner-2025-10-31 | Choice: shelton | Confidence: 4.9373349848722973e-08
3. Ques... | sachko | 0 | atp-sachko-bublik-2025-11-05 | Open de Moselle: Vitaliy Sachko vs Alexander Bublik | 78,632,550 | 78,632,876 |
da3c7eef3c7ab319d448eb9087383e915c6f0d54 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x835e1b22c2943ffe8805d953b37447d02e70d69cbcf03ba1f70febb17566a3cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner | Event: atp-shelton-sinner-2025-10-31 | Choice: shelton | Confidence: 4.9373349848722973e-08
2. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev | Event: atp-medvede-zverev-2025-10-31 | Choice: medvedev | Confidence: 0.0
3. ... | yes | 0.000002 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? | 78,633,380 | 78,633,380 |
9edce2a03166f0b1be3b82bd0876fd5a63d3b2c6 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x9bb868841b34c5fa558de205be158aacf35a0c77407c07060a0b35321ca865ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev | Event: atp-medvede-zverev-2025-10-31 | Choice: medvedev | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Event: lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 3.080936313125104e-08
3. Question: Rolex Paris Masters:... | musetti | 0 | atp-wawrink-musetti-2025-11-05 | Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Lorenzo Musetti | 78,633,675 | 78,634,373 |
fc32b610959f54b08080f8b1af1dbb496c32ea52 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x9149fe0cb3e6281f6fb8b3818ed7fa53c0ff939e3d4c77bde592b9edd94d760c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Event: lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 3.080936313125104e-08
2. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Bublik | Event: atp-augeral-bublik-2025-11-01 | Choice: auger-aliassime | Confidence: 2.470166878191951e-07
3.... | vukic | 0.000067 | atp-vukic-berrett-2025-11-05 | Open de Moselle: Aleksandar Vukic vs Matteo Berrettini | 78,635,032 | 78,635,032 |
7bb59a39277af766ef50e8b6c76d724c8e1af9ea | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xd84c31f4db1074287919c383d9cc526b19bc0274276af7bb1a5a427c6a061aa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Bublik | Event: atp-augeral-bublik-2025-11-01 | Choice: auger-aliassime | Confidence: 2.470166878191951e-07
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.1016865399447... | yes | 0.000001 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | 78,635,249 | 78,637,717 |
5e403e7e6b260f17555aaa942dcc7e28e6d85e67 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x8758bbab242f5b68ec3a66d49126161f2601e22a62272bdfa23bf0eeaaaa805e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.101686539944763e-06
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-tot-che-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.224014981943379e-05
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-... | yes | 0.000001 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? | 78,636,522 | 78,637,717 |
318196c81a4a75cbab603dd21b5f05c7e9e15841 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xa4742b0ca4d353f98bbc06ac1f9716121011315915073dbcc455f106f5b87798 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-tot-che-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.224014981943379e-05
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.6271252558630395e-06
3. Question: LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event... | yes | 0 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? | 78,636,525 | 78,637,374 |
f10db982346fce8070c5648e3f28191d581f9862 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x8581d02dbdcd59fac4439c0df7d9174ed27d37e993647a423da36872f4d0a3c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.6271252558630395e-06
2. Question: LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lol-t1-tes-2025-11-02 | Choice: top esports | Confidence: 2.719087101606405e-08
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-11-02?... | yes | 0 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | 78,673,760 | 78,721,799 |
a2f291a9b05608c08436915d57d4dfbd8998593f | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xc0bbce3d9594888c2e8bb1879d7798b334564861a1d7e66b44eeafe208295e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | Event: lol-t1-tes-2025-11-02 | Choice: top esports | Confidence: 2.719087101606405e-08
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0453674912968711e-05
3. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-... | tien | 0.000002 | atp-berrett-tien-2025-11-06 | Open de Moselle: Matteo Berrettini vs Learner Tien | 78,676,192 | 78,681,360 |
4407ab078b4fd64881e4df25b32f11c1f81bf4e1 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x0a42b8ff235629bba186b791b68046728e81a090ea167c727e3a80704459b119 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-11-02? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0453674912968711e-05
2. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner | Event: atp-augeral-sinner-2025-11-02 | Choice: auger-aliassime | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: WTA Fina... | tabur | 0.000001 | atp-tabur-sachko-2025-11-06 | Open de Moselle: Clement Tabur vs Vitaliy Sachko | 78,679,964 | 78,680,039 |
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