sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
386e8e47aa865841124606859ea8d99660559313 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x9e6c971d44acaf99289581b6c0fef063a74a7ec09ed596fe3a28a8731254e68e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner | Event: atp-augeral-sinner-2025-11-02 | Choice: auger-aliassime | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula | Event: wta-gauff-pegula-2025-11-02 | Choice: pegula | Confidence: 4.55226... | down | 0.000002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-7-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4AM ET | 78,702,092 | 78,702,277 |
6274047ad920977b0fa118dc4d6117e44406c040 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0xa8723b06633cb50a942e9dabcd489aa497d7ae874bebe817ce1e547846156a34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula | Event: wta-gauff-pegula-2025-11-02 | Choice: pegula | Confidence: 4.55226835059297e-07
2. Question: Women's Cricket World Cup Final Stage: India vs South Africa (Game Final) | Event: criwwc-ind-zaf-2025-11-02 | Choice: south afri... | down | 0.000011 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-7-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5AM ET | 78,702,385 | 78,703,935 |
28ae5bb44a85f8947f7ec9ba6092021366bbd270 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x8bcf54a5c2b45987447e0460f26cf64dd8b2a30699a679f9d4a3bb38aac7eeee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Women's Cricket World Cup Final Stage: India vs South Africa (Game Final) | Event: criwwc-ind-zaf-2025-11-02 | Choice: south africa | Confidence: 9.774599659927814e-07
2. Question: Hellenic Championship: Alejandro Tabilo vs Adam Walton | Event: atp-tabilo-walton-2025-11-02 | Choice: tabilo | ... | down | 0 | msft-up-or-down-on-november-7-2025 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on November 7? | 78,702,651 | 78,702,651 |
591f9c21939e98a2131a463d57be7faf8bca24ca | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x27fe0f52ffe08b5733931c69598fc81f76399e7ca64f2015e5ef98ad6b726f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Alejandro Tabilo vs Adam Walton | Event: atp-tabilo-walton-2025-11-02 | Choice: tabilo | Confidence: 3.6604199160519295e-07
2. Question: Hellenic Championship: Alexei Popyrin vs Sebastian Korda | Event: atp-popyrin-korda-2025-11-02 | Choice: popyrin | Confidence: 1.0398... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-7-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6AM ET | 78,704,554 | 78,705,346 |
ef9654865bc81982c2d91d934c8df8aabd0f4c91 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x99b400cd3f8b53f5ec872f454778acd994151fd853053bbe1fc500c53146485c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hellenic Championship: Alexei Popyrin vs Sebastian Korda | Event: atp-popyrin-korda-2025-11-02 | Choice: popyrin | Confidence: 1.0398075940028058e-06
2. Question: Vikings vs. Lions | Event: nfl-min-det-2025-11-02 | Choice: lions | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hellenic Championship: Damir Dzum... | down | 0.000001 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-7-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7AM ET | 78,707,263 | 78,707,418 |
e0b1eb5ffb3949e072b3532ff34f32853cff68a7 | 0x2be4dda4820730d431642ae97753e1f6ba6c01ad | 0x0070ae68bf6dfe877650944400f42f729da773514efe55f3bf6ca90b2f7b38ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Vikings vs. Lions | Event: nfl-min-det-2025-11-02 | Choice: lions | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hellenic Championship: Damir Dzumhur vs Jacob Fearnley | Event: atp-dzumhur-fearnle-2025-11-02 | Choice: fearnley | Confidence: 5.144702140809212e-07
3. Question: Hellenic Championship: Eliot Spiz... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-7-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8AM ET | 78,708,050 | 78,708,963 |
26946735f579fff6f51cc0a6f3744b7200a3993a | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x380f7150652303197abdd7cebd9cfd188d4c34bf0d74dc8e0985010d23182a53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration?
Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale"... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,158,991 | 67,158,991 |
25be00d1d1ddfa653129e5f1e2420baf9cc02ec5 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x8566865c2f3a559a5b58e045289cd6437ad1d5437fee535b26d18d3b6b950afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?
Event: how-many-executive-orders-... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | 67,158,991 | 67,158,991 |
ef62c8ae21f8391023fcbb3912ddc3cc968beb9d | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xc226bfae5a4319eeee04d6c64e0993728b6c375bedde7a990ce2d308da3cd3f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Kanye West perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,158,991 | 67,158,991 |
0c3ac42894c40c81fe20aff27e92c96933e65f96 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xc5a29d7da91c765c5b8b45dc5f86147558ad0d16bb18e7ca14a74e3b5e3ebf9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | 67,158,991 | 67,158,991 |
5a7f7332d8fe6bde6f62cfaa671ecef6724a9b48 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xece190ccffc671cfd1f9c4286e5183ba48a9fcbaf32a9fa0a663238beab1aa13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will The Piano Guys perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,158,991 | 67,158,991 |
3b30dee6b6e7226cd25d241f628728d665a1a695 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xf0eae9693c0ef07091f5581407a78955ad0713556cf5a7eb67df5e056b5de165 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Lara Trump perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,158,991 | 67,158,991 |
a55d2f51201059bc6735aecf949d96cbb6b66caa | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x1c25bbb883b8453768ca87c65d599114ecd7b437a34b1a304c68960b1acd5e96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Kid Rock perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,158,993 | 67,158,993 |
0fddab25945fe332c1e809c3a9b3b14f954e638d | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x21559998482bf5dfbcaf0f5409edd34eebd84c8998df622f9da8ff1e1f248a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will someone else be inaugurated? | 67,158,993 | 67,158,993 |
c813d8fa84a32395e53eb3706061230219261b87 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x5af55bec4d5a0b1fb4638a819a1532e2338a82bb432499314f70fb564110273c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | how-long-will-the-trumps-inauguration-speech-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be under 8 minutes? | 67,158,993 | 67,158,993 |
0486d929c7b17ddd328157ac108f9f50f2380520 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 67,158,993 | 67,158,993 |
8e1d74e7d4ce945f5dacfbaaefead7010dd2e095 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xc59e9fb081b5c3397ce2d66108d497c787f731768b7f32bbe86b5ff2fdb453ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | how-many-words-will-trump-inaugural-address-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be less than 1,200 words? | 67,158,993 | 67,158,993 |
445d6afec3a276a8c74981f6a09f18da1c7dc53b | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xcdf917d12754a009cb7bf1d42735e2db07f971ac7426a321f255b15dd02d3b0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Jon Voight perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,158,993 | 67,158,993 |
b212b965e205006fed7913859ba15aef00cedf27 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x56b3e04b1f4408ca8bcde27ec5b1271e3fe7d0f957296e1fa0df6970846bff9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Lee Greenwood perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,158,994 | 67,158,994 |
5261afa0faa20b6bbcbafaf27dcdad9e0f2b8ecb | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x76f4a5f92218211266dd2892ac6c9a029b02dc6d4f950145417041578d85a0ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | yes | 0.933727 | how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Will 44m or more people watch Trump inauguration? | 67,158,994 | 67,158,994 |
96eeddc8fa5b12535a8217da817c47b5890a7b11 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x78e7cdde1e71d86ea3da0af1af4eca676baafc395a411a9f70ee9668787006f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | how-long-will-the-trumps-inauguration-speech-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be 10-12 minutes? | 67,158,994 | 67,158,994 |
3c2f52840891039337d52cbdaf3c6c79f92350df | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x8b3cbcddb055b9b6594b5ffe70e075e6d22f62c2373f51768c6db382761a98d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will U.S. Service member(s) perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 67,158,994 | 67,158,994 |
ad80a87efa359332d7c153cfede3426bac4ca209 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xdd8f6ee8450f775642b7982bba551d112057a4585468012a0f0e12e42c5c50ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | how-long-will-the-trumps-inauguration-speech-be | Will Trump's inaugural address be 8-10 minutes? | 67,158,994 | 67,158,994 |
3c28217e02c6e66f6b0127684547bfa23f9039f0 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x37edf4132f33b6738d3b016088b75a8c42eda73d712dba6348594e279db36cac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-dc-on-inauguration-day | Will the high in Washington DC be 19°F or below on January 20? | 67,158,996 | 67,158,996 |
b1b9c988155985debd055b59b70b8441cb7fc4f5 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x04e07c6085d96ecc1ac7568d6cb640f09e4d300a25afc763b67f15d8f2c8597c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,345,365 | 67,345,365 |
cb953a29df671767f80f2c0a5522dc60e35e8e6e | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x64123306a517e078fa636231a9cc9339a46bcfe3fadf62c92fdb031881c5d0d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,345,365 | 67,345,365 |
318c1f826f0758d36daf7ac5742c4d2034508a0a | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x7883a3c40bb01cbd3b9ec9e3b73d75af705e300c9369f27178739cf3f4fa089a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,345,365 | 67,345,365 |
84bf6c3b738172f67b9c7a9c9a437586706ca25d | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xf4c062740bed86e48b44177aae609c9c76e44cba5318aba240b94066939b672b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,355,302 | 68,355,302 |
af2b4d064c867b9cabc021e86213a61af1f75953 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xfd77de0aa822710b91adc76bcf04eee11f536f7b70d55ffc6dc60a013fb1b1e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | airdrops-in-q1-2025 | Base airdrop in Q1 2025? | 69,757,493 | 69,757,493 |
dab763949aac906461613f70bd28101e11ed4301 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x193b65cb6eaa0859db9a704c2ebe3f87c7b367dd7776baf18270422fcdbf926c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | 10-year-treasury-yield-on-friday | Will the 10-year Treasury yield be above 4.8% on April 11? | 70,413,657 | 70,413,657 |
c71508df327e01a65c1b051cb54952bd285d0819 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x10bb455936cf8f22777bdb8d3a1b97760cae2215d60c15001c5d252c0f26478e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,419,414 | 71,419,414 |
2aa2819001e21407897a89198971a584ef795a62 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xbf1e237a1e8cbf9c0b454dc984f5dc789f57f85b077a6a7383489b00b75dc4af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,419,414 | 71,419,414 |
ec022158d8ce6985e5757caae94ccee7c9e0567d | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xc5821602b440e61665dce5dcdc0fd20153864ba185d26a13e9be80fe98bb9e97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,419,414 | 71,419,414 |
0acc401837ffb4c8b9b769bd7e48157305537ec7 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xf00956d5595489c542320152b1ba7966de5826d1cf9854928891822caebf2051 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | trump-imposes-200-tariff-on-china-before-june | Trump imposes 200% tariff on China before June? | 72,229,558 | 72,229,558 |
c9dd609c7de24d7af63a99889f0465cf88ff22bc | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xeee27e3d0a8abbee1fe9a98f9b09b052c217f85a170c3f29889c8a729e735357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | solana-all-time-high-in-may | Solana all time high in May? | 72,229,560 | 72,229,560 |
13b6582637c0b2d67c04ff21f17c5cfc4cb9ce5e | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x38666ef076cc86f8ca42f02f023f69bdb914bdb05f108aa87dcbd1986a8d0242 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election-994 | Will Kim Moon-soo win between 20% and 25% of the vote in the South Korea election? | 72,509,092 | 72,509,092 |
562e99b1929265c1a470460f3843669a15a72f7d | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x3e0587bec9d48499678739a44da2e8087011a05246fcae1562edea215ec857fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-... | no | 1 | lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election | Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election? | 72,509,092 | 72,509,092 |
da8a0c1af0871f3fe3a7d74edcea238b133081d2 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x5860dd75d4944835e9e872f87a9bd33783d183e464c3e0251a6474a04fc1acf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye West perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-tru... | no | 1 | lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election-994 | Will Kim Moon-soo win less than 20% of the vote in the South Korea election? | 72,509,092 | 72,509,092 |
9fe0895abb21ab81b9e8c114796550e5eba92c56 | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0xcf3c4a6559bdb9724c239982f8392e10d7fb7488518a1ae434284be34dd701d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye West perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election-2-brackets | Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | 72,509,092 | 72,509,092 |
3fcd48e9ba8bb4be2ee8f14a0113b88887aa65ae | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x1eaa7dbf6db63fb0771a93ac95920a0a5facd65734e8a5c269c276d2dc14cbda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Piano Guys perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | 72,667,406 | 72,667,406 |
5cd59e8ca3881ad37e7618a6ce6780c213c589fa | 0x2c18fc1449d5fb66217484f0ca3f97d0c7373570 | 0x64b071fcbe03dd75e1fef4f46808ba66ac11ac3b01810b7168e30ea11679e81a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Piano Guys perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lara Trump perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | Event: who-will-perfor... | no | 1 | new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Will Ras Baraka win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | 72,667,406 | 72,667,406 |
6ab0c0786fd6486f924b6dceda5efabd27f2b763 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x1c16fdcf95870b7a317cfa81a9d1e716e5e1d04b137e759692b54e19c8eceac9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft?
Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.451327 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,436 | 73,399,436 |
1dd7c4d843d42d981f98dac9b04afc42b483edea | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x21018163cb55362d4b0e938c5789229838b934893327c8127e5b5ad2a7da9431 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27?
Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27
Predict the user's choice and c... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | 73,399,436 | 73,399,436 |
be6626304b69f2856cbb2a66d76581e2c17677a9 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x29cf3451076593551e6a90d795949a23eed084922038e81fb5feaf1f032ce063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target mark... | no | 0.913263 | ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 27? | 73,399,436 | 73,399,436 |
93485d190a0aaf398a2bb802ed4b8c1e8ec1932e | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x45d793b74224a77f349630a88858ca37243cabfff4bcc426be1349784f528a76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Ace Bailey be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,436 | 73,399,436 |
72b705c19f88d92355fc6a19d6f92b30dbfbdaee | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x4b06aab6a347c3749b912c9d9b99836a19c30cf609cbb25a3fe3a51f4255c3df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 0.394563 | ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 27? | 73,399,436 | 73,399,436 |
599ad3326ebd630eb1b9644d3f242d5ee802ba79 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xa6579e06c16f7c6c377e92a27845b2dad9cc0188a6cef6d09284741385b9d546 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 0.996787 | ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on June 27? | 73,399,436 | 73,399,436 |
d7bed2041a608b58890c89df361b61ed17f34386 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x1d9a3568e950dae81bcc2961b91ceb66687c3126803750f85668f5e179451c28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Kasparas Jakucionis be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,438 | 73,399,438 |
be240c1a3fc9ca9b8ed1e0c4807a566c6078a920 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x37dd05b9a9a62c635a032f636bdd95d18e5d58ca5d5bead90074c3137b078c13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Jase Richardson be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,438 | 73,399,438 |
9b91297e55dacad678ad631e312e7cf4ba4aa9bb | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x5f6c0d626c7e2ced6e0673f11703cb9a41b6d5c55122906f509c857b4fbe3d6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Collin Murray-Boyles be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,438 | 73,399,438 |
d55a9abcdc4d65b9e96ad8e313c1e3bb2271377a | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x5fdd6021f509e498be5bb5bda79c8bfff7254a0432b6b1343687d00786d76127 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Dylan Harper be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,438 | 73,399,438 |
fb97e56dba23eed4a498f994f9f424e7f256b2ff | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x7d0c6c8e97f8a10f70c14fb3e973a63ca613c57a1fdb653a9299cddbccaa9cde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Carter Bryant be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,438 | 73,399,438 |
5c58f8693b0238b69002db62d0b4383a020f1f37 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xa7cd601468a0c9bf8490897cce7c957cf2315026acd322af4aa4d312333ad6fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 0.946058 | ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2200 and $2300 on June 27? | 73,399,438 | 73,399,438 |
3620fa38e0c10c4663f01b37393495f5ee82259d | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xc9a95a08befd1da534bba73071a5e3619bca3517be1b019f031f03c8b3d8cd04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will VJ Edgecombe be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,438 | 73,399,438 |
1fc0d4396eb92584a226ce3cedb31463c96738a0 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x01050b5622a63e31977ea38ad8ecacdeca790f9a0fc1f9aaa2861c327fb2778f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Noa Essengue be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
b058b0f939b7121eb01c67edac1c6e21259f2584 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x30306f1c03c1b20b11d29477de8b582e957f07d5285281400030ffed3eb94e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Kon Knueppel be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
88750a60c029f4afbe3c24cc817313e59d39f892 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x3d325b982d3fef63ab43b6d3640da3c66a33447a37b7abe07d8ae0f30fb00051 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Derik Queen be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
89e5d3273e698ce44840d9dfd16556a575e80a42 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x798ce120e0eec06216d83e3d0f3335415d66feaca94feec83b9fd65a8a49c797 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Khaman Maluach be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
39ecbba420f8d155d36066d1b929aa9fa57ac169 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x911e6fb774e6be23f757eacfe7907bee6b1443f41ab98d96950b7f59b829420d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Egor Demin be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
02d8efece41cf2e46b44e14020426f4dfab1da1e | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x9cb049ee90519208d860978ad0aef6a6de73627c51f560bf498de14d04234d17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Cedric Coward be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
e40f04e76d09c32e4b3dc3b2980bc4358c8106ec | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xb4757816ab98293c19d3e8cfc04096dc281ae5145d99bacd4f78c7abef6c0d26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Thomas Sorber be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
0afd6d6b3fe4aa77e288d7b187e02be21f8bb3c0 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xd209b72fd799a24f1e371905d46c99a21dbdd63a811e28e2c8b001c35cb56907 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Rasheer Fleming be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
203a117634c0178efbcd3df219caceb4f3d0f213 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xe413d15a9b94a57c77a58e96e0afcc8c07f6eeef03bef94eaeab6161548665b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Will Tre Johnson be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,399,441 | 73,399,441 |
b4c1b14f3afcc284ecc8ad192b1d950d0241f8bf | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x23c900939c0f5c203ee2d6bd838e5bebe7851dcfee57edca23c48ab4fec03bfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 91-92°F on June 30? | 73,449,186 | 73,449,186 |
bda4b176ca1beb0d94d111767367f7d5da52d1cb | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x6412c1868e30c861737de65d9083587065909a2ffb1a6ca103476fdd4de6bb12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 93-94°F on June 30? | 73,449,186 | 73,449,186 |
f6239118c913f79fef93050a1c7f4c0f47e84614 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x76d20175b325e9c396af318d7d5b9ce52a4f42fe0065f9a6ae4b5f76d52cf6d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 95-96°F on June 30? | 73,449,186 | 73,449,186 |
dcecbb1dc62f12d09381b01d8c8d29c82575f90b | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x92eee2ccd5e94cceac877cc49ecedef4bbceee2c6ad70e1b98b0e2837a2cb50f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 97°F or higher on June 30? | 73,449,186 | 73,449,186 |
d51537d4eb69f870f7a881ddf0357af62c48b118 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xd99b2642940b6801cde483e4dbf6af60c08d2192094493b191a46943693e3e5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 0.899822 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 89-90°F on June 30? | 73,449,186 | 73,449,186 |
9180a1efd111585a91112d0a5d2ba865d58fcb1a | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xdf01b1ac43630c560f3c1208ef4c71930fdcc2e828fb016c8881cdff6e9f794d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 0.991044 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on June 30? | 73,449,186 | 73,449,186 |
6b253ab422d3c5cd12654e1d90d339469e11cf66 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xf1216d9702f0d0e139a0f4b31c7da3f50dc5ddca79878ccc116b21e70d74bfde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 0.99119 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 86°F or below on June 30? | 73,449,186 | 73,449,186 |
ea8b8d98934c4c6140014cabfdec08bdfc315fc9 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xff935388701627d66677db4f893df4c5a6b0245c5a372884bd7ae857baf60e61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | will-trump-admin-remove-harvards-intl-student-ban-before-july | Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July? | 73,449,186 | 73,449,186 |
261f5b9c39631c7eb32d6296a193c29e57ec74a8 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x1c2ecf28f59b504937764cecda4a49f596496f1ba9b9ddfa90ba01f765453aa0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45132743362831856
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 0.959762 | which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Will Pope Leo visit Mexico first? | 73,449,199 | 73,449,199 |
b6f5cae1e291302b46ab8fbadf4e8b6816cf83ff | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x52c3e729ea1518291a3a6137b772e1713898552958cbb57f81b4f578fc8aa242 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9132628626716158
3. Que... | yes | 0.289212 | which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Will Pope Leo visit the U.S. first? | 73,449,199 | 73,449,199 |
9ab9fafa14eba7393bba8ed3e1816e3a1e1d1f63 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x743263989882a055e48d765353052318f37b3e740d10efe6a44f17c862d0d0cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9132628626716158
2. Question: Will Ace Bailey be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 0.848605 | which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Will Pope Leo visit Peru first? | 73,449,199 | 73,449,199 |
f50432b4930c50587a762aaca64fdb369ed3e973 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xd3358d16bad932b94fa24752fa59b379c4b02e91c7eae96c4611f5bb5637ed7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ace Bailey be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3945627781240575
3. Questio... | yes | 0.735515 | andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be less than 35% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | 73,449,199 | 73,449,199 |
e7860ac869846275f0d565079682a986475e7027 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x0c7e04861e982fbff7284d62a759104f601e99be50728e01df59d4ba95def0ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3945627781240575
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.996786563... | no | 1 | which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year | Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? | 73,449,199 | 73,526,705 |
46fba9e00d9dfd0cfce84275d662a6b82965a325 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x7d1065b412588a3d21573021c808e0760ad93c74d10fecb0535b610a349011f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9967865637440253
2. Question: Will Kasparas Jakucionis be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | 73,449,199 | 73,561,858 |
26610fcd74c4775a02fed6993d2876d07988d2a1 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x54df940788d482cd21110d180affd7f48c89e6797b12f64a157353274ede77c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kasparas Jakucionis be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jase Richardson be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Coll... | yes | 0.37609 | will-israel-strike-yemen-by-friday | Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? | 73,449,199 | 73,655,512 |
11f160bbce8c90ec77f361f7b4e1c9b336a471fe | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xe9281b62eb10a791bcff1cda189b7e7ef707dd82ea059aa3f19de8bc559eb1e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jase Richardson be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Collin Murray-Boyles be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dyl... | no | 0.116368 | another-spacex-dragon-x-nasa-mission-to-the-iss-in-2025 | Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA mission to the ISS in 2025? | 73,449,199 | 73,655,528 |
584b270c77124cc72d46cd54f841719844f51140 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xdb6ac30f0f051e1b22bb8afd31bd9b88462fabaec88da93f0d6e34fd41557018 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Collin Murray-Boyles be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dylan Harper be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carter... | yes | 0.854567 | national-league-winner-2025 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? | 73,449,199 | 74,627,774 |
8b2adfb10a2d278c0be278ab9380a83c1bf05467 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x40c20fb3657da981c54ff70b35c538ad50317b307d05de92c81a6091e4037cd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dylan Harper be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carter Bryant be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of ... | yes | 0.942309 | andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be 45% or higher in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | 73,449,200 | 73,449,200 |
f3ebaffd769321c143bbaca8e1cc2feab42e75b4 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xbd11a45644bfcc650faa3e20d48c2a31b4b75c0af8c0d2d20c716e1df55652f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carter Bryant be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2200 and $2300 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9460579257284846
3. Ques... | yes | 0.406226 | which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Will Pope Leo visit the Philippines first? | 73,449,200 | 73,449,200 |
9aafac8cd424507b0c1143dda43e61ea9c2075aa | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xdf52706a9c87c71c6b79980dadb94b376ecb1fa6502613d4ded02a2db86bb3b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2200 and $2300 on June 27? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9460579257284846
2. Question: Will VJ Edgecombe be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.980236 | which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Will Pope Leo visit Turkey first? | 73,449,200 | 73,449,200 |
3d5e4d9a2a25ece916f60f7c190df687214bd6b0 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x987be9b813ca18826b4977184612b309ef3434c997c43b6cd22701c3eab4a5ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VJ Edgecombe be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Noa Essengue be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kon Knueppel b... | baena | 0 | wimbledon-de-minaur-vs-baena | Wimbledon: de Minaur vs. Baena | 73,449,200 | 73,526,660 |
221480e8fec4323e995adcf0c3a23f603b9e9e29 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xdbd91ac5bfba721fff70c8256640a51b659db5f0e57597b5732c7c2c1adc1952 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Noa Essengue be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kon Knueppel be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Derik Queen be... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | 73,449,200 | 73,526,660 |
1b1f28b4513ac8cb7efb178216e802c017475988 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x808628f77a278459c287ad9fd7891c6a1e25dbede8d2d5685736a9127e1ddd1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kon Knueppel be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Derik Queen be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Khaman Maluach ... | yes | 0.765491 | national-league-winner-2025 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? | 73,526,705 | 73,526,705 |
148b573d6ce6b16f1ea23ee03e9cf8cd88ab99c7 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xa9e9b65ecbf6745cbf973377e93e12279a979ce1c311afc4678855b0459dead3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Derik Queen be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Khaman Maluach be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Egor Demin be... | no | 1 | which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year | Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? | 73,526,705 | 73,526,705 |
45a7e55cd00324803f95491ac93c61d652e4edef | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xda702d3ad684b8c6410974deb7d19ad769e9c39dc4e21da5dd8e0c89ee52be6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Khaman Maluach be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Egor Demin be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cedric Coward ... | no | 0 | openai-announces-development-of-glassesheadset-before-august | OpenAI announces development of glasses/headset before August? | 73,526,705 | 73,561,855 |
da4e34e592739cf83d3b6efbd7f0fef5ff5ef9b2 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x0c8ad9a71972fd2983a76a4243f3719e4b5bb0d82cc92eb01c7ee6617fb2c970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Egor Demin be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cedric Coward be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Thomas Sorber b... | no | 1 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-july-1-7 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? | 73,526,705 | 73,727,823 |
2e8f58608acbedf0685fae3f55f52e73969eb662 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x5fe0adf2be7656934df7af55ff03a50113ff0abe7d505f3ef465206d583df852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cedric Coward be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Thomas Sorber be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rasheer Flem... | no | 0 | will-governor-kathy-hochul-endorse-mamdani | Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? | 73,526,705 | 73,803,416 |
56cac69b8aa8aa5fbb153ce6216f315c156c6887 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xc2330f5c96477923f8ff9dc53cc56045aeb88622d7d44622a6e15d8794f2cf4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Sorber be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rasheer Fleming be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tre Johnso... | yes | 0.148113 | national-league-winner-2025 | Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championship? | 73,526,705 | 73,803,416 |
eed95173dcd9bf86cfd32725622db82587e187cc | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xf887203734a8875cef2f354235f69f00a05d3d17bb645a0828c585291c83f3c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rasheer Fleming be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tre Johnson be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest ... | no | 0.05031 | national-league-winner-2025 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship? | 73,526,705 | 77,934,952 |
72a1b8784af39da4adf5b985658a27a0e6ba145e | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xc8e3295e3e6532003eeffc0977576277026b49ce21760264ebf9b7cef8571afb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tre Johnson be the fifth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-5th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 91-92°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-nyy-tor-2025-07-03 | Yankees vs. Blue Jays | 73,561,855 | 73,561,855 |
f0d231cf838a816ee3e94b87d9ec7718ddaf6342 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xdd2e98fa130f4952cc7bcc7a0bc28e98a7f62cd1e6ca8a8c2e46cdc624e469b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 91-92°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 93-94°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice... | no | 0 | which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | 73,561,855 | 73,561,855 |
f1d05cf47052ead13716f6b39d1f8c24e3fa9536 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x953211a029b0a686fe15f5e4ae97a453e409474d586fae61a728a1419bb9edee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 93-94°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 95-96°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice... | no | 0 | which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | 73,655,528 | 73,655,528 |
3198008b18044b28e9425579a2461499c420b59b | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xd28e4ed9c140b2077803f260c2267e6f3beb96640d270d16625bc07dc1108d31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 95-96°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 97°F or higher on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice:... | no | 0 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | 73,655,528 | 73,655,528 |
969ecd0f7b4ca0d1e8138f88126cf69b46fb1b2c | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x9c54da1e80a5ed0620df1c37ebba9a380eb0d2c5bf34b39500e7fba3945d7591 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 97°F or higher on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 89-90°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice:... | usa | 0.521806 | gold-cup-final-winner-usa-vs-mexico | Gold Cup Final Winner: USA vs. Mexico | 73,655,528 | 73,727,823 |
9196e3bb472d0cae205f04f9bf2582fc02a9d47a | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xf98b7c846261846eaab51178635518370fa481fe70c123fd9afe62bd31fc9d7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 89-90°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8998224435474741
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-ju... | no | 0.323221 | ethereum-above-2400-on-july-9 | Ethereum above $2,400 on July 9? | 73,655,528 | 73,803,402 |
af68b0b2feaa000b75b7355ef77dd790780a4575 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xc1786db8d0cdccd17cdf42591cefd74eeb72e5c797040459f59453823299a893 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9910440441565618
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 86°F or below on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jun... | no | 0 | israel-withdraws-from-syria-before-ocotober | Israel withdraws from Syria before October? | 73,655,528 | 77,934,952 |
2a793ea2c1a0625004d07a76900f92262cff7763 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x07a16019527431deca7a2d36014ca377b8e6953a930df97b3704ae8e330b916f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 86°F or below on June 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9911895858385638
2. Question: Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July? | Event: will-trump-admin-remove-harvards-intl-student-ban... | no | 0.886962 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? | 73,803,416 | 73,803,416 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.