sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
37d6b6a312bc6c1f4f76acb62cd52ad0bfb7d5f0 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xaf7e922f0804b6ccbb1a86518f9cb1321c17c942ce0f7e01a2dbbb2c73a59167 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July? | Event: will-trump-admin-remove-harvards-intl-student-ban-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pope Leo visit Mexico first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.959761... | no | 0.969525 | andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be between 35% and 40% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | 73,803,416 | 73,803,416 |
9b45118b762bfbecfabd2f5258ee3d057adc05c3 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x815a39d0fc165336fda1855a54fb3f41885b6e85ce24d8e696425e31f578013d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pope Leo visit Mexico first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9597619037637536
2. Question: Will Pope Leo visit the U.S. first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2892117236069624
3. Question: Will ... | mavericks | 1 | nba-lal-dal-2025-07-10 | Lakers vs. Mavericks | 73,803,416 | 73,831,666 |
b3eb031fcf013db0c05410593209d20844ba4fd1 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x62cdae7f4d60ad8221323df86a8833b1343ffed649d3a55dfea905742da754c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pope Leo visit the U.S. first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2892117236069624
2. Question: Will Pope Leo visit Peru first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8486053518164033
3. Question: Will An... | no | 0.881629 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? | 73,803,416 | 75,350,825 |
8070e667fdf07275e024d49d90eef251fc534b4d | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x70352ff91112ca6c9bc336bcb4810d6c463966c8073819e5e95e2951bef938ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pope Leo visit Peru first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8486053518164033
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be less than 35% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | Event: andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-14 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 14? | 74,264,055 | 74,264,055 |
f5243ee5ee444fe970c8d37fad9aeeb0902064d2 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x7f269fb78139a0a03b2ba86eee312302614c165885862ca305945d8218a5d38c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be less than 35% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | Event: andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.735515387750113
2. Question: Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? | Event: which-co... | yes | 1 | motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | 74,264,055 | 74,264,055 |
28b18cb894a5c9e01a9db656f9188dbeec9333df | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xc2cd37a469d509c918c6f57f879eb4b52ba1ddedbb6841cb212f063cb6854e3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? | Event: which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Israel strikes Yemen ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-14 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on July 14? | 74,264,055 | 74,264,055 |
bcbfd3ac30b289e674d8306c774d2a5b5f0c9ccd | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xfaa09b34503d60b6dd1ed88ed31e02d50bc09c19a84cd50fb375e4f534ddf72b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? | Event: will-israel-strike-yemen-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.37608951767374477
3. Question: Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA m... | yes | 0.712981 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? | 74,264,077 | 74,949,906 |
1fd1c84e1a82ad877d5d5443ef83c75d44bde0a1 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xe344ca86e82fbec04403d7a1ab89bc94ebcc3c4317bfeb67596005a1949ace7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? | Event: will-israel-strike-yemen-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.37608951767374477
2. Question: Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA mission to the ISS in 2025? | Event: another-spacex-dragon-x-nasa-mission-to-the-iss-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.11636... | yes | 1 | zohran-mamdani-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | 74,513,061 | 74,513,061 |
1795d6a23e3c7f446ddbeae16d7786453cc189ba | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xaeee1e151422ba53531aed029df7c7b756bd18c3dd80caadc9f54e19e09bcc09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA mission to the ISS in 2025? | Event: another-spacex-dragon-x-nasa-mission-to-the-iss-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.11636835622165813
2. Question: Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? | Event: national-league-winner-2025 | Ch... | no | 0 | will-trump-sue-over-south-park-episode | Will Trump sue over South Park episode? | 74,627,774 | 74,627,774 |
00041129b6cbf8bdb5875d229d4643137578e291 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x4118c8d7cbeadfb74af55e302de2a2d7298a7434c750d03cc8826562989682a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? | Event: national-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8545665609934563
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be 45% or higher in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | Event: andrew-cuom... | yes | 0.2 | ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | 74,949,906 | 74,949,906 |
6a73963be8f6a33eb0f1babfec24851dc9b26e16 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x5a3b9a804bc0c9a45fc09ec61e0574ca57b34dae49150aaa485dea340ba746b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be 45% or higher in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | Event: andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9423085003895587
2. Question: Will Pope Leo visit the Philippines first? | Event: which-co... | yes | 0.600999 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? | 74,949,906 | 74,949,906 |
462cb53bdffb7c7bf8f821ccac173326ab445333 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x7cab9da787443beec1eb5e399afd46fffdc27b5f00e0293a1d6a9996c948ac52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pope Leo visit the Philippines first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4062261430146747
2. Question: Will Pope Leo visit Turkey first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9802359397181251
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | english-premier-league-winner | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 74,949,906 | 74,949,906 |
37b6f56d5bc05a5cbc49a889b3532e553a896295 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xcfc9e8dc2c5a0ff4563da165bb8001da9b1dacd7e9c2c57f0587691a04c57415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pope Leo visit Turkey first? | Event: which-country-will-pope-leo-visit-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9802359397181251
2. Question: Wimbledon: de Minaur vs. Baena | Event: wimbledon-de-minaur-vs-baena | Choice: baena | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET ... | no | 0.111394 | ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | 74,949,906 | 74,949,906 |
99bc50f31a0849fd14667bcdb139aef63ed2b3ac | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xf3f4dcad5520a1ec9da6608da49181cc26826d868defad1bed6f773e32349ea4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: de Minaur vs. Baena | Event: wimbledon-de-minaur-vs-baena | Choice: baena | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League C... | yes | 0.708907 | ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | 74,949,906 | 74,949,906 |
864de1cd4482c3d6a47357b59b4d908480527410 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x0f9f233517a56e2a72800d4e68a1ce7b51321452292acc370bd73a164f96bca1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? | Event: national-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.765490828754705
3. Question: Will Mi... | lynx | 0.029133 | wnba-wsh-min-2025-08-08 | Mystics vs Lynx | 74,949,906 | 75,350,825 |
97bf0aae6419e2ffaed24ecca5b6095c61ced000 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x40bef958d038a7056ee2829d363227c1b016df6a5e82bbf79d976f34fa51d2e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? | Event: national-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.765490828754705
2. Question: Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? | Event: which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 0 | india-agrees-to-reduce-purchases-russian-oil-by-august-31 | India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31? | 74,949,906 | 75,913,549 |
0b067641c0755f8ac89c61ec4c3f998c46becd76 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x3089e7202b5ab1617977d27926bf8be6d92d829f588bc38bf41ea0625dbc7702 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? | Event: which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: OpenAI announces development of glasses/headset before August? | Event: openai-announces-development-of-glassesheadset-before-august | Choice: no | ... | no | 0.998605 | which-pair-advances-to-bolivia-runoff-election | Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? | 75,350,821 | 75,350,821 |
067692deef215cd0094d1d9f63fd28d4bfc4ca84 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xfedad3141e8ccda58199d97712004f90d82f2eb26163821a4fc334742eb980d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: OpenAI announces development of glasses/headset before August? | Event: openai-announces-development-of-glassesheadset-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-july-1-7 | Choice: no | C... | giants | 0 | mlb-wsh-sf-2025-08-08 | Nationals vs. Giants | 75,350,821 | 75,350,825 |
dd2378268417dcc1da6af4b7ac821f55c4a0f11d | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xa1a61dea1ef8a815e66f5fd18173e772b7125b70f0d82877f4b31a46758e0250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-july-1-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? | Event: will-governor-kathy-hochul-endorse-mamdani | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the Arizona D... | no | 0 | will-russia-capture-dobropillia-by-359 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 20? | 75,350,821 | 75,913,714 |
ef63760ba644666f83c4cd4e4ce35c26e51cffee | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x22d4ba1daf6053a24a1263e94bac18263063739b3056259e9ec8f496f536a041 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? | Event: will-governor-kathy-hochul-endorse-mamdani | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championship? | Event: national-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14811292976863938
3. Q... | no | 1 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? | 75,350,825 | 75,350,825 |
ad5edfbb89693e5c7b01491bb9eb5ff4ab930f8c | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xd3fb6d5a8a798f9abab8026cb40bc9c2229f74cf79357c835f3ab7387278e06e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championship? | Event: national-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14811292976863938
2. Question: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship? | Event: national-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no ... | yes | 0.999893 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | 75,350,825 | 75,350,825 |
a8c0b94056de7c9afcc0061c6f444c43c330fc7f | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x01e6bd165b6df4dd1669d6b79399c8a5c9fc6c7eb14fcdde49e113977a50deb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship? | Event: national-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.050309989976242926
2. Question: Yankees vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-nyy-tor-2025-07-03 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Syria join th... | cubs | 0 | mlb-chc-sf-2025-08-27 | Cubs vs. Giants | 75,913,545 | 75,913,545 |
52fc5c9888ba69b76e676b084ff7a10dda1aa6ee | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x671cc974bbac321451e941eb99aec464dfd0a6589487c024eb7033b574861bd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Yankees vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-nyy-tor-2025-07-03 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Event: which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Ethereum above $4500 on August 25? | 75,913,545 | 75,913,545 |
e687c7fc8c2d0ff27f01c479e252be14ef2649d5 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x877fe2d895cafe3fb2d5f2e526da26f248b11600f234b30d02b604dca61910be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Event: which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Event: which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pu... | yes | 0.893189 | ethereum-price-on-september-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4300 on September 1? | 75,913,545 | 75,913,545 |
ac8aac674c5cea5dab10fea5beb2033bf72f262f | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xbc853eff6c54acbe4215a3b804fe5cc990482cf0e1262b257ded9f85042132dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Event: which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Qu... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-august-25-31 | Will Solana reach $220 August 25–31? | 75,913,545 | 75,913,545 |
ceaae4d4542a7313f7f46ba001d9e013c41468b4 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xd48e14648cba24889be5c5e3f028200f54ffcca6ff5e67db5284db05a5af9627 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | Event: pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Gold Cup Final Winner: USA vs. Mexico | Event: gold-cup-final-winner-usa-vs-mexico | Choice: usa | Confidence: 0.5218057888760513
3. Que... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-august-12-18 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 12-18? | 75,913,545 | 75,913,545 |
685b579163dbf05d8a1f82671ad77181a32756b4 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xecf7028ba989a7b969388e233d26c394446b8290f9ce77c2381f4bccd14b179c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Gold Cup Final Winner: USA vs. Mexico | Event: gold-cup-final-winner-usa-vs-mexico | Choice: usa | Confidence: 0.5218057888760513
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on July 9? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-july-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.323220536756126
3. Question: Israel withdraws fr... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Ethereum above $4100 on August 25? | 75,913,545 | 75,913,545 |
a9e1e45222dd3f58a5fbdd770c73614730d63900 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x0106bab17b5d7ec35b596c2c0a7adbe3a2f486d9839cf8bd60cee513d96d7877 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,400 on July 9? | Event: ethereum-above-2400-on-july-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.323220536756126
2. Question: Israel withdraws from Syria before October? | Event: israel-withdraws-from-syria-before-ocotober | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will global temperatur... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | 75,913,545 | 75,913,713 |
365ff5a127ae403151f57bc79c357de5155abc36 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xdc245d1251d517f5aba6b0093231057605fbbe002fced410bd786170c6ef9a2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel withdraws from Syria before October? | Event: israel-withdraws-from-syria-before-ocotober | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8869622... | yes | 0.78908 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 28? | 75,913,545 | 75,913,713 |
aa236c3ae7eaf9d2023b2d9628cbeee3ce69b8aa | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x26c98713f23e7fa09107fc29ec7c0994d14d29362b87c79dcacf101e4936db3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8869622756264464
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be between 35% and 40% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | Even... | no | 0.368523 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 28? | 75,913,545 | 75,913,714 |
626fd3f531b93955a0dccd4c4c8015e8c79ad9ed | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x8ce9bf524177ec608c1a6291f397258147c12e4b1d13fb3dba0bafd92469a557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be between 35% and 40% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | Event: andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9695247424166601
2. Question: Lakers vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-lal-dal-2025-07-10 | ... | yes | 0.252301 | ethereum-price-on-september-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4500 and $4600 on September 1? | 75,913,545 | 77,934,937 |
3ec5591c97e47bfc63a57b52f708d53aaca4d680 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x52da3702ba8a8c0718544d2d4d2d9dbb68d21af0614c0a748b9f1d45bd4d0c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lakers vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-lal-dal-2025-07-10 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8816289939950192
3. Question: Will the price... | guardians | 0 | mlb-tb-cle-2025-08-27 | Rays vs. Guardians | 75,913,549 | 75,913,549 |
ca07df51b405058bbe7d80149da2f47f7c31cc8e | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x78700265e4aaa5e73a4557cdbdad4ed768a1504f1c91bbce0c7ccffb4af175bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8816289939950192
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-14 | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 0.142827 | trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-by-august-31 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? | 75,913,549 | 75,913,549 |
a971748cdd54084583dba76ddb7f7affb519b853 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x82819db85e0444985b49b4d57871428959d530117a528aee2a77619842a2c6bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price... | no | 0.996208 | trump-approval-rating-on-august-22 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 22? | 75,913,549 | 75,913,549 |
e317907cedcc4728365e62e86c6385d73052ddb5 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x960371604de073927c624133cb09a31db61c9c3d578df3778674cebbff59ea54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP Germany? | Event: motogp-germany-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on July 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will global te... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Ethereum above $4300 on August 25? | 75,913,549 | 75,913,549 |
a355b015e49fbec2ddb15065a1a2438015503a48 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xacb19f4b63e3a7a23fc0bc04b0d697b1c9aa7c2055ed70bc77321ed41df490be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on July 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.71... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-tor-pit-2025-08-19 | Blue Jays vs. Pirates | 75,913,549 | 75,913,549 |
664cb45a7a946918d51de867aae445cada2825e8 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xffe8f015244bec4811185b5a76e4db2b74ee2f7c37a972db3839e37499d28f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.712981263629362
2. Question: Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | Event:... | nationals | 0 | mlb-wsh-nyy-2025-08-27 | Nationals vs. Yankees | 75,913,549 | 75,913,549 |
2023270f3eb9f2bca21f6f1f982022325d0227a2 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x8069451225e75277522105b7e3816d9be8074d09393c1a9b80c5393550a13486 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | Event: zohran-mamdani-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump sue over South Park episode? | Event: will-trump-sue-over-... | no | 0.986079 | ethereum-price-on-september-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 1? | 75,913,549 | 77,934,952 |
dfa4ee9b73dd684641ceae6fc00b10f917ffa315 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xcfd2090dd528a34487a4247679ca085b64159b5d0e325d4162a6ce13f0603f44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump sue over South Park episode? | Event: will-trump-sue-over-south-park-episode | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
3. Question:... | no | 1 | tennis-cincinnati-open-winner-895 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati? | 75,913,713 | 75,913,713 |
08bbd868feaf61536542e3679c66efd62c10a8f3 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x02b7a255c739fec9893bc0ff932afb3dadf00027cbe8e25023b87ea16b37a767 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | tennis-cincinnati-open-winner-895 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati? | 75,913,714 | 75,913,714 |
59a3a516580cfc45cb7c9d46aad0496dca57a386 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x3f3acfb4a75f7b8db894bc089126f370ac291b3bd1bb5dc5acbd795dda764276 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6009991821190992
2. Question: Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Event: english-premier-league-winner | Choice: yes | Co... | florida state | 0 | cfb-flst-stan-2025-10-19 | Florida State vs. Stanford | 77,934,937 | 77,934,937 |
bb8e93b2833f0bf651f82d221aa95bbe65e7fe26 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x55757765d100e5be802ab7fc13dc9debafa5911c4b239b84b35c065a59b7e880 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Event: english-premier-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.11139... | jets | 0 | nhl-nsh-wpg-2025-10-18 | Predators vs. Jets | 77,934,937 | 77,934,937 |
19e40a2d5eb3abd7a7ac6edad1e2aef12ed66f55 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x5b2a77dc89b8ed35851dfde664fd91de02168aa23f5a90b91e5777caa2a450c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.11139448882584359
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Ch... | yes | 0.78769 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september-522 | Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September? | 77,934,937 | 77,934,937 |
474e6dc44dffd8180d55461256727a3bb1f4fcfb | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x9bdd99ef31e95252b02c5b136f7923d8c008b44e6a24335356717a2a208d222d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7089074358798902
2. Question: Mystics vs Lynx | Event: wnba-wsh-min-2025-08-08 | Choice: lynx | Confidence: 0.02913306168761879
3. Question: India... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? | 77,934,937 | 77,934,937 |
1bcefe30de407eccb1e958c01852d35493aee293 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xa6810873af2eeac42bc2445db3e505d00fa738789b519da49e1f24194924c5f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mystics vs Lynx | Event: wnba-wsh-min-2025-08-08 | Choice: lynx | Confidence: 0.02913306168761879
2. Question: India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31? | Event: india-agrees-to-reduce-purchases-russian-oil-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will another... | yes | 1 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 77,934,937 | 77,934,937 |
d323fc41dccb1be27211979cd9aafbde41a74b73 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xa7cfd4744f2bb583eb3f6006264dc4a59c6d7fc4db5c528888f7a3223d68e0f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31? | Event: india-agrees-to-reduce-purchases-russian-oil-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? | Event: which-pair-advances-to-bolivia-runoff-election |... | cubs | 0 | cubs-vs-padres-series-winner | Cubs vs. Padres Series Winner | 77,934,937 | 77,934,937 |
10528ba1d8b1c5d04fcae7885f775f9f8a07f790 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xbc75bc8116be6dcfd430f75833db1a04e573930f04c2e093367df2e4c406a858 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? | Event: which-pair-advances-to-bolivia-runoff-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9986053935420155
2. Question: Nationals vs. Giants | Event: mlb-wsh-sf-2025-08-08 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Russia ... | yes | 0.115332 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-6 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on October 6? | 77,934,937 | 77,934,937 |
18e8bdedc7c59b0abe24a3184fefe0d4668d0487 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x183437908cc43b560a45d03a0de9e6b61c4c66ede49debc6fff44dbe8055b65d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nationals vs. Giants | Event: mlb-wsh-sf-2025-08-08 | Choice: giants | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 20? | Event: will-russia-capture-dobropillia-by-359 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? | Event: ufc-3... | yes | 0.014439 | will-trump-visit-israel-by-october-15 | Will Trump visit Israel by October 15? | 77,934,937 | 77,934,950 |
8762b3e312f18c9861e8e0cf98977b777db5c390 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x9601f569de7e5611bfd7462b2c5ee696b5a04c6514864228a06c011cfdc61b8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 20? | Event: will-russia-capture-dobropillia-by-359 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will global temperat... | no | 0.997732 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 77,934,950 | 77,934,950 |
302038e6b8878f979a82d2889df13caedf3f3646 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xb4b7228a854adeb2017ec3379bb725e5d38604e3af0745783dbb1b9835e567b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.999893382880... | no | 0.991251 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Greece win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 77,934,950 | 77,934,950 |
18314cfd4fb436b00c0117bc8ce5412623f5d652 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xe58e06b4eb46f73852b11994b1ec426cd029c90924ebf59739e2f6ad70ff367f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-513 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9998933828807537
2. Question: Cubs vs. Giants | Event: mlb-chc-sf-2025-08-27 | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $4500 on ... | no | 1 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Spain win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 77,934,950 | 77,934,950 |
3155980d035c3416bb025896c2c01ac7c2006429 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x064364dd745641d83345476c4b474c67a578bc92aac19ac5ac78fd4ec6795414 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cubs vs. Giants | Event: mlb-chc-sf-2025-08-27 | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4500 on August 25? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4300 on September 1? | Event: ethereum-pric... | yes | 0.970071 | fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,934,952 | 77,934,952 |
4c073f12acdc2a30e73bb144141522d96735be45 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x008332c5897d6c7e37224d0538510440e227b0101bfca33e8436ba21df929412 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $4500 on August 25? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4300 on September 1? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8931885438986693
3. Question: Will Solana reac... | yes | 0.998293 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Italy win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 77,934,953 | 77,934,953 |
f4e7b69e3967e5b430b38148d917965c1059ff33 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x15cfeae676dd0df44298d893a0afb7740625d7fa83ebbb4f8f8902d027fdf192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4300 on September 1? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8931885438986693
2. Question: Will Solana reach $220 August 25–31? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-august-25-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wi... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-november-5 | Solana Up or Down on November 5? | 78,786,101 | 78,786,101 |
8724ab7ca24b061aa0e1bd9f3f8be6d3dcb0f45d | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x5ddd486bad8448a8ba32afa475e6919bc8fdb7a42b00566f55f23fa897d3baed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana reach $220 August 25–31? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-august-25-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 12-18? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-august-12-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum ab... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-october-23 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 23? | 78,786,101 | 78,786,101 |
9c5711b3a177a17ba7d8470174b94d9d1ee1af57 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xa1b9100235d2055413aed8df752a16032fdd6736c209f770adccd010c12da8ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 12-18? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-august-12-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $4100 on August 25? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Aug... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 22? | 78,786,101 | 78,786,101 |
6eabeaec716d008eb0af37887546ea63b346b277 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xabab6c6f1b8e63d6cbfc4dc73ba20da97a16efea25e55209682ceb7a2219e787 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $4100 on August 25? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be bet... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 22? | 78,786,101 | 78,786,101 |
7d73bb2f83dffaa50548b36d5235980f695d0b68 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xc7ab38fcf9d0f3877076dd8c0dd38a9791ecac23b1ce63c6bcc151bc0d59092b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7890800... | no | 0 | nyt-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-05-2025-0pt53 | Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings? | 78,786,101 | 78,786,101 |
2f069f5702d0413f3ed8ca26cd02f3c9b98fe167 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xf6390cee4145aca991d98b15a6618e4ec8c04446f0a59360f3d667033cb44f39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7890800989871201
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-londo... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-october-23 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 23? | 78,786,101 | 78,786,101 |
9db4cd14d40935eaa17b6a76caeb3e8c9e5a3457 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x26ecba64018acd47a1111322acdc9ad49e8263962364f29bfa4c2f0f4d21b908 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3685231914503429
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4500 and $4600 on September 1? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-1 |... | pain | 0 | cs2-tyloo-pain-2025-11-04 | Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) | 78,786,101 | 78,835,365 |
f9e2f1a10f2f213b7782fbc5c36476d8f3b46318 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x3dd21be714c7feafe4c8abb054799e36d6b88751f24ecfb3fe1e56f384e262a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4500 and $4600 on September 1? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2523006683972202
2. Question: Rays vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-tb-cle-2025-08-27 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Trump, Putin, and Zelen... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 22? | 78,786,101 | 78,835,365 |
9d2be22a13e7dc483bcf71697898766479cb6fa4 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x1a2ec4f6e34d891e80dbd74ffccd4b40c2f8148fc117ff5ebf07cd9f95602e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rays vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-tb-cle-2025-08-27 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? | Event: trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-by-august-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14282668721694372
3. Question: Will Trump’s ap... | no | 0.252008 | largest-company-end-of-november | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | 78,786,101 | 79,974,676 |
ef3daf9642a3ac05414cabb624fcca59bc3e1d58 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x59eb371f8827a430ffa7dc0ab800fc50e2ec9ed1e08ad6c3e0c6ce2eee9fe202 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? | Event: trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-by-august-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14282668721694372
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 22? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-august-22 | Choice: no | ... | no | 0.99663 | who-will-trump-meet-with-in-october | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October? | 78,786,102 | 78,786,102 |
e2b28389d4cebd432a5a3f914f5b8f79c76b0f6a | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xaf516bdbd67c7e90ec58b78e4409f0216066515cf841ed4fcd0c93ea49d96695 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 22? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-august-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9962080410669386
2. Question: Ethereum above $4300 on August 25? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Blue Jays vs. Pir... | no | 1 | bitcoin-above-on-october-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 22? | 78,786,102 | 78,786,102 |
b7605e79ff8a3f2c549ccc35ab9296c87751385f | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xc5279f416732cf1acfbb55967d43b439bcd1fb1ca0ce27e61db252c6e6edb7fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $4300 on August 25? | Event: ethereum-above-on-august-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Blue Jays vs. Pirates | Event: mlb-tor-pit-2025-08-19 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nationals vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-wsh-nyy-2025-08-27 | Choice: national... | fc barcelona | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05-more-markets | Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) | 78,786,102 | 78,786,102 |
b76925a84952140693923ef527f26ef56a458fd3 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x0748437be1fb6e81ace417669a129843dd9cdc9c066eafaacca401b176b50b61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blue Jays vs. Pirates | Event: mlb-tor-pit-2025-08-19 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nationals vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-wsh-nyy-2025-08-27 | Choice: nationals | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 1? | Event: ethe... | yes | 0.904617 | ucl-ben-lev-2025-11-05 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-05? | 78,786,102 | 78,835,365 |
e6cc1f1848fdf687d3e07bd9a3ba4ecc9087e286 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x349f0023914fb1464f47db15e91b9641ec4d354afe4d289526b54c0de3a8a69b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nationals vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-wsh-nyy-2025-08-27 | Choice: nationals | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 1? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9860792903417408
3. Question: Will Jannik Sinner w... | no | 0.359492 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september-522 | Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September? | 78,786,102 | 78,835,365 |
84ed36149416758d070064fa5049780020b63a78 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x9e0d8164e90ec5dc6e23bc050adda7ca174023acf7d28e9afe8b0765da08b382 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on September 1? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9860792903417408
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati? | Event: tennis-cincinnati-open-winner-895 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 0.910049 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,786,102 | 78,835,365 |
edab3e05cdf63cf6cd294f706b2d9c107aca8657 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x65a2dd0af5f4155915a701e8fdbcdb2f547fb5925d0bcef0b373a8c39a16613e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati? | Event: tennis-cincinnati-open-winner-895 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati? | Event: tennis-cincinnati-open-winner-895 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Florida State vs. Sta... | yes | 1 | english-premier-league-winner | Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 78,786,102 | 79,215,246 |
e585a55354b78161bc83fd8be0834e302098c087 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati? | Event: tennis-cincinnati-open-winner-895 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Florida State vs. Stanford | Event: cfb-flst-stan-2025-10-19 | Choice: florida state | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Predators vs. Jets | Event: nhl-nsh-wpg-... | yes | 1 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 78,786,102 | 79,974,675 |
7f2caf1a0e4e929e06f3beceb3c6b9ff6abe3a65 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xd02f8e3b72040d933427396f9f0a9cb740a0adefcec46e345211fa0fc5b975e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Florida State vs. Stanford | Event: cfb-flst-stan-2025-10-19 | Choice: florida state | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Predators vs. Jets | Event: nhl-nsh-wpg-2025-10-18 | Choice: jets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-i... | yes | 0.910246 | english-premier-league-winner | Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 78,786,102 | 79,974,681 |
bd9b278272840d210296de1a56613c19219c76ce | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x5203a95598f18205fa5d1fae7afdefedfbb356679f1ae6e3911c54883a462034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Predators vs. Jets | Event: nhl-nsh-wpg-2025-10-18 | Choice: jets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september-522 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7876903813279009
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,... | yes | 0.003365 | english-premier-league-winner | Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 78,786,103 | 78,786,103 |
818667fd5939e299f1f37d025204b6a775ca76c9 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xb1f49adea3e64963561b9f8162194712e7db9345543659a2ede9e5d8c53c8bac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-september-522 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7876903813279009
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questio... | no | 0.999193 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-773 | Will between 12 and 15 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season? | 78,786,103 | 78,786,103 |
181ffd3c835b7821233bfe980f2ad923e6ee1ed9 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xc9e2530a614f466f969911a5995748ea8786b45d8cdb58be6a926b55d29d4f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Cubs vs. Pad... | no | 0 | who-will-trump-meet-with-in-october | Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October? | 78,786,103 | 78,786,103 |
b871709d5adbb8a9e752f64a5258f60ef7350dda | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x2e17b62a9d451b686e9cc750345f005557a7dfa85f4b51b12ebefbac7088b0da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Cubs vs. Padres Series Winner | Event: cubs-vs-padres-series-winner | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New Yo... | no | 0.394202 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,786,103 | 78,835,365 |
bb36ba21b1551bc33096dcf6a8a199032b12b7bc | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x2cc1ec53841565b9e9530473b24036e59dab3d63b2f360f45dedbb01e1df2d3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cubs vs. Padres Series Winner | Event: cubs-vs-padres-series-winner | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on October 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.11533151887986472
3. ... | yes | 0.681397 | sea-bol-nap-2025-11-09 | Will Napoli win on 2025-11-09? | 78,835,365 | 78,835,365 |
00e0b2cfb6cd9ddc2db177abff2902550c02f33d | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x938e1394347bce94687cf8cc9022a456bc7c8bb3e90e9e0b2c6a83489505a5ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on October 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.11533151887986472
2. Question: Will Trump visit Israel by October 15? | Event: will-trump-visit-israel-by-october-15 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 0.617542 | sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | 78,835,366 | 78,835,366 |
70a42075206131dbf12cccff6fc59aeaf9ebe373 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x2700c8cc1b14280f4144a511f8bae2b1482fbe2742304a9dea7b079d0c38546b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump visit Israel by October 15? | Event: will-trump-visit-israel-by-october-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.014439485071615759
2. Question: Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9977320303453425
3. Q... | pistons | 1 | nba-chi-det-2025-11-12 | Bulls vs. Pistons | 79,134,596 | 79,134,596 |
b09f02531a6f7302c4d24febfd093d6d1b8a2957 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x345b689321562b66c9a2ba4cf19976a3a310e6f558aa26c5a31d25834c261915 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9977320303453425
2. Question: Will Greece win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.991250718424963... | yes | 1 | uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Will France win on 2025-11-13? | 79,134,596 | 79,134,596 |
997d5999bd92fd910a0b90ee37ffcbcb6c18b7a7 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x71245919977c52d334137315be63a05b1cb4ef42cf6d8b96251519a78111adeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Greece win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.991250718424963
2. Question: Will Spain win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0.754634 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12? | 79,134,596 | 79,134,596 |
402c8fd14e5e991387e6cea08c6b121ac17f4263 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0x94b105a3278a360d321f898763026ad87f3506cafa6e3a2c66c51da8b5f00780 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9700711133172845
3. Question: Will Italy win t... | yes | 0.892417 | bitcoin-price-on-november-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 10? | 79,134,596 | 79,134,596 |
f9d144a21760d74fb277b45bfe88606c67c3b02e | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xe5f52118bfebaf8b20a2cd8d132d634dbd11b9aee996d3a53dadb3ac12d20c2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9700711133172845
2. Question: Will Italy win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9982925180934633
3. Question: ... | no | 0.952381 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | 79,134,596 | 79,134,596 |
83e312532b4d8d8694c16fdb9bb4a4a505e72618 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xee4f3e9fe2f746ad6d0cc96a6a69135eec61683c86830a46e0a0d42e63144b6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | Event: 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9982925180934633
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on November 5? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-november-5 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of E... | no | 0.958923 | how-many-us-house-members-vote-yea-on-the-next-funding-bill-by-november-30 | Will between 217 and 218 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | 79,134,596 | 79,134,596 |
8f095a265073032201ed0f5ba8e367daeea16b11 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xefbfb13a7bb5b8c397e40e54bd9306e1499bbc062db3daf8cfea320d50b06cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on November 5? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-november-5 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 23? | Event: ethereum-above-on-october-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be abov... | yes | 1 | caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | 79,134,596 | 79,134,596 |
31addd6a14db10385b275ad145ca5a4987c56885 | 0x2c1a7a67e6f71bd61a616841f54ae0df8e8d42d8 | 0xf2989d220ae767b59973b00546c856ca43c873a3a934b5e0889f999a2764ff98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 23? | Event: ethereum-above-on-october-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 22? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the pric... | yes | 0.317726 | bitcoin-price-on-november-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 10? | 79,134,596 | 79,134,596 |
33f23840a118973208b222f92c17744b711f51a6 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x685fed6fa0db43a5269c8da7904e1d7e53f6726d87f6f131cb169baea851f3a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP?
Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | 64,002,919 | 64,002,919 |
6ca5d54f0262885219149f5642c138044be64b17 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?
Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's ... | no | 1 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 64,002,919 | 64,002,919 |
303f2eeb6f393da3d20e99eb12344fd284f5eb55 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xa10585d295fd84294c356b51e66d2e1babe1de48c42c1aec743d6a4a8965b68f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win no swing states? | 64,002,919 | 64,002,919 |
089515f28bcce554af81910744ce508892244de6 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xbb01eefb24a38a9aa1921ec168d3049e7374b28a2540937d06b3ff2524d66627 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | 64,002,919 | 64,002,919 |
586c9d1ceebe4d4f604771b8aac39c1795ca2bdf | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,002,919 | 64,002,919 |
fdc2f7646dc577c5f9f3143f5522d90007a740f2 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,197,183 | 64,197,183 |
b826d9c0a28e6b71a87fd1b6338b974c392b9563 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xe9efd4e41b8109b02b36718095bfe4a24c3cab31608d3d11038d53cf99f88f07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | november-unemployment-rate | Will the November unemployment rate be 4.0% or less? | 65,177,862 | 65,177,862 |
a81a7ff8e25d6718cf6a7ea489f3b380558d543e | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x24ee858fba5f91b94e6278e71b8e1fdaabaf2a3680700d670f42aaa1c5f40179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | november-inflation | Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November? | 65,367,395 | 65,367,395 |
d7199bd897ef1a75c3f3ddc5e93249bbd7a7c8cb | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xa85daba3e0d46cac74ea3db6034328ee824940d96692a0125d64a84ab48effe3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | november-inflation | Will inflation increase by 2.7% in November? | 65,367,402 | 65,367,402 |
52075ce4838fe96d63d8b999558ee6eacffaa9a2 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x8cdfb8a957b715ffa122cb119baa3676ac6332635a9eeb23ef944bf96a347e1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | november-inflation | Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? | 65,367,406 | 65,367,406 |
844e71967b3ecb3104e533b7b0ba339c5b19a3ce | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x4421ddf25598700841a09acfc93a847e721d4b5ee5dfc064781ae32dd3d30be3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | december-unemployment-rate | Will US unemployment be 4.1% or lower in December 2024? | 66,538,766 | 66,538,766 |
c33605480b830c318c989581bafc3276c95f81b5 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x14703a80cc0238cd7264712e27fb3470b5be4f69fba7974eaf8675788f427604 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | december-unemployment-rate | Will US unemployment be 4.3% in December 2024? | 66,538,773 | 66,538,773 |
4af6c02669ea387e321c14f9908c4f848268afe1 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x760e4165cd9fd3f0a9aa8ab2d9f406550765a36a61490b7da9ffaf5bd0656f97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | december-unemployment-rate | Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in December 2024? | 66,538,788 | 66,538,788 |
6ec524cbd75fbd6705ff354709a64be365084af0 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x026bd42df2b17550ad5edceb43f95553b254deb94571905c5338cb3dc5a801ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Will US add less than 100k jobs in December 2024? | 66,538,794 | 66,538,794 |
226fa250f73b3bb00554f1c47093233bf86bfd08 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xe14c50866db2d1f77426253620a607746fdb1a831682ed43227fcca44e3b036a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Will US add between 100k and 150k jobs in December 2024? | 66,538,799 | 66,538,799 |
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