sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1739cfcdaa366cad6dc630f91abc30de31303873 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xf112a927d48b37e0741f19f4c9fb8ac7d40442432762eb4e7c72090cd03e3a82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Will US add more than 300k jobs in December 2024? | 66,538,803 | 66,538,803 |
7d365239a4e857acfdc7244ca20cca17c93e9fc1 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x89dd6daab7f5645b4445e78b8d2a72f5b7e3f4e33ae31b8b41fde2565906849c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Will US add between 250k and 300k jobs in December 2024? | 66,544,765 | 66,544,765 |
545d8ec8b4c379aee3d16a06e79d570c1a7597b0 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x043234697d09721ffa9cb76a9bdb40a3152cb368c4ec1021d06a97f88c9f807d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | december-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in December? | 66,735,296 | 66,735,296 |
d378b167b1f2d1aa02281890c0f1c2d96bc18bd3 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xcb1745eeb2d414a6865e6dd69b9d648e6596c67ff92c778c1eed6b0b43d27055 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | who-will-biden-pardon | Will Biden pardon Fauci? | 66,935,592 | 66,935,592 |
0f13b50efb072299a6da53afd9b8ef9b63432a46 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x9e1720ce2a7556d252b80f998dc2c437f13cb15701ba20156debfae4ab2544a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-before-trump-inauguration | Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? | 66,935,597 | 66,935,597 |
81722cdf0591aca369c680505f84f8360afb270c | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x8566865c2f3a559a5b58e045289cd6437ad1d5437fee535b26d18d3b6b950afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | 66,972,681 | 66,972,907 |
0e9cdfff163d07ab860794af96c71a97ae258ecf | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x43829ee12a03a8b8d8858388fe59293bf81bea51a40ce2a0f775892500a52675 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1? | 66,972,690 | 66,972,690 |
92cc2b4758ab3e50637d859753cfac92de874a96 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x5842426b03cdec27a7f260c497f9fc7706b561c1c42f9ee24103513a926db505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 105-110 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,836,764 | 67,836,764 |
38d7c80b4631db401703432150711d8d4d781777 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x26640062fb5d20d7fe8dc99e9be064d2d5ad7d4e8af930b74d21af1324690cac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 120-125 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,836,772 | 67,836,772 |
d8ffff7a60610a5be2752bdedaa15f81285a0682 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x3697a85711226a26a47988e1cc374fc1c46e4c98478ad0063e636720501f24e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 110-115 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,836,772 | 67,836,772 |
8f4b8dd89bba7b0a50fae26f6a03aced0d314f9c | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x37cfa686567ba8fbc1a68537af3f46750ee13df6b70d941a70f8a01740a4bf77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 125-130 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,836,772 | 67,836,772 |
0dc0f9f33fa20f298be03fead55a7a3e8989d927 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x39fdb588f374fb922f5ad91256a480c41e20fdcf6c98a14342ce3013a2ab3121 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 100-105 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,836,772 | 67,836,772 |
efe941894780e79ef9fcf5a464da53834ac9bc6c | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x863dd1ea345f87ae3409189ef5a13d5a3ae782b3a3965680bb2583300caed643 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 115-120 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,836,772 | 67,836,772 |
e5381c476f64cdc2f0019aa58283bb158ac40d74 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xa8f8b83ea9ea072dc4c71215d67b4d4d32f480f528d691fdb672811117ba0a84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 135 million or more people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,836,772 | 67,836,772 |
5db27bb5560707f99393814116290c801716e495 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xabd29340db107dfef840486e1bb5263c02bd0f0d5a717022c340f1f6434f5aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 130-135 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,836,772 | 67,836,772 |
1804b63502e01a31da6693c3f621975cf5340527 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x133fbd2265fd73737014a867e251dfed45fdcc31545c380cfdde5d2ef8439d30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | january-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in January? | 67,843,508 | 67,843,508 |
e15a6e604be1d900a355e19b6b5fcf5fbcf8db52 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x5363ffdc02613b09ef90f685596bbfd0212eeaa88ad635a89daf76452982033f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win no swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win Michi... | yes | 1 | january-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January? | 67,843,508 | 67,843,508 |
4f3e2c69b35f9b5b0fed8fc8e053c23f7e343268 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x77270270508c43b3d59a9b9d29dd2e676414589665c56d9081e55309d24b88d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win no swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win th... | yes | 1 | january-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in January? | 67,843,508 | 67,843,508 |
f45829b1d6f9593406905e52aea1412df5deabb4 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xd712dd34946bb296f69e372b77bfab77eccf074d7cdc7c2925c5703d12ab0f11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ka... | yes | 1 | january-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in January? | 67,843,508 | 67,843,508 |
61ed124a0e863707b43842d9c21495c306f3a339 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xe97292463060c54374f764cdc74f56974832e5c3318e395a72c99fc8dc7373c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | january-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in January? | 67,843,508 | 67,843,508 |
b9dd04c44477e8f79037e969bf223f7e55a8d31d | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x832baba7ea82158fd165d2133d20104813efddbe49fe09a06327fe5eb081750c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November unemployment rate be 4.0% or less? | Event: november-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will inflation increa... | yes | 1 | captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | 68,098,261 | 68,098,261 |
0e189be48c64656460cb6f970967ef3c00c850ce | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xbe9926792c8d6a0062c7c7bc0e8f8832bb837dbccd9e35d4b951ebae71c2b9ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November unemployment rate be 4.0% or less? | Event: november-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.7% i... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-and-elon-say-during-their-feb-18-interview | Will Trump and Elon say "Saudi Arabia" during their Feb 18 interview? | 68,378,276 | 68,378,276 |
f1e75b45387ec234af91f8facdf6f6d2cbf8db09 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x31aa884804fb15142a7193d73127ee1a2ea4734fb88d14bed73333594ca8d09d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.7% in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in Novemb... | yes | 1 | how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Will 'The Brutalist' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,612,690 | 68,612,690 |
fd99ebb9c6217aa418c5b5b8033845657a369716 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x5dfb15f9da60f87e9193e711ade54ea3898d7977162f86e0e536a1580472b7d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.7% in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.1% or lower in December ... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-starmer-presser-february-27 | Will Donald Trump say AI or Artificial Intelligence during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27? | 68,612,698 | 68,612,698 |
ac0261f80f84467441875197c14fdc64a73d5c9b | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x2c5ca65c78539eee7d38c4296399bb1f934dd519ea36da06eeee8ec4aebd319d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? | Event: november-inflation | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.1% or lower in December 2024? | Event: december-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.3% in... | yes | 1 | how-many-oscars-will-emilia-prez-win | Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,612,700 | 68,612,700 |
6768f5e817286234c99f1998b537f024ca8365c7 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x9b81d62f81190b3dde5dc0f54caa686a014be2b5dd977b1867caceb0886cf731 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.1% or lower in December 2024? | Event: december-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.3% in December 2024? | Event: december-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.4%... | yes | 1 | how-many-oscars-will-emilia-prez-win | Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,612,702 | 68,612,702 |
11e89361e91d558da40f1a9607c67d290ce7ab36 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xf576d637a7968871e7eb1f9cf6d945fd278eb38f6364fa84724b85defbbb74cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.3% in December 2024? | Event: december-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in December 2024? | Event: december-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US add less than 100k ... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February? | 68,967,089 | 68,967,089 |
1d43e8c526afc36aca5570eb1d21155249d7723d | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x5e1f8f243e8dfcc8822ec886741e74fb2fe1d34bda3810511ce32d62b0f22d46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in December 2024? | Event: december-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US add less than 100k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US add between... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in February? | 68,967,101 | 68,967,101 |
aaf335830794b03c0dd98fe0df2f5a9b32d403b7 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x9f11ec72e7b55d357869f19836802952e896052c7d6e1408e994b5cfd0a53468 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US add less than 100k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US add between 100k and 150k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US add mo... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or less in February? | 68,967,108 | 68,967,108 |
af27e181a9ca80e9cbb853b59e98840cd1aeb4f3 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x81b98ac628ad7d5a43fce87c82793d73939671e35579eaa10055d182b623bb6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US add between 100k and 150k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US add more than 300k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US add be... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% or more in February? | 68,967,354 | 68,967,354 |
0435b10b4450606b35b7a0644d94c07b5629821f | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xb85cfbb45a221263715f88ba10cec5170dd8e3672d108fee66a4b6f1409d3783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US add more than 300k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US add between 250k and 300k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly i... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in February? | 68,967,358 | 68,967,358 |
0c8767daaf37fdfcfdeadb6bc59f63cab9b4cf2c | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xbe55fb3cb6873c9487969eb212ca59cc4600dfafe4e41e39af10e0d718a606d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US add between 250k and 300k jobs in December 2024? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-december | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in December? | Event: december-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bide... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in February? | 68,967,360 | 68,967,360 |
3a573b73bf5a3423a421de443ac683bfbc0b5c7e | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xb521536d734e85555cd3dd567ecddec02db182eed276c85abb6e9c9f83cac0ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in December? | Event: december-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden pardon Fauci? | Event: who-will-biden-pardon | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? |... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in February? | 68,967,363 | 68,967,363 |
1c0e64757c6c0cc0e69c8063f0b184290e6d951b | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x2b2a56d3528eff2c8e8f21278a033f793d4fa92cf9bfd67ffa1e872623f41af5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden pardon Fauci? | Event: who-will-biden-pardon | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-before-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive o... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in February? | 68,967,370 | 68,967,370 |
4e32187b80898a636797dddc925aac02acb9506e | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x42b8304f759771cab23dbc8edb71a49c50fdf78ea38011af3f2019cdd478da60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-before-trump-inauguration | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Will the US add between 200-250k jobs in March? | 69,911,329 | 69,911,329 |
5b5041800d7c376f3f533a7bf059b540768cb04e | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0xd0e8530204577ff261890cdffd2ba9ed8dbdce85a6b9b479bf56b2ac682ae10d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-march-2025 | Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | 69,911,334 | 69,911,334 |
e3f777b720b4c842eb9f8651152535e01379e584 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x1abfefcba4018fa013e432fae84277c8add5fc85181c32880331313bd7b3217f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 105-110 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | 70,017,152 | 70,017,152 |
70ddc89ef13a3f5aff3fff05ff9532d6e558cae3 | 0x2c41d0ca2b4b2344912eead711f28cd4dcff133e | 0x961ee2529ff3c3b27a9b7dc424c1d7046f52bdd5b4ae38bd74ae65f0838fabaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 105-110 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 120-125 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | ecuador-presidential-election | Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | 70,294,442 | 70,294,442 |
a8f838b0588e5fd7a712c183c3abe8cec7b3929f | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x5b898e4daf323cd6838f58d2764e65cc8e1db4adc6e3d3822ee1b03267a5dce0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21?
Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | 77,995,093 | 77,995,093 |
f31b03b7ec7736f5390897633fbabf167d59b547 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x171993ebdc52304a3eed37d6664a5589f9a46471335c5d26f7e829782ecafa78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22?
Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice":... | no | 1 | ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,039,144 | 78,039,144 |
d5f47b8d617a54214f826bb4d099d792d691695a | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xf06a161f8326e12761d3d63b73e1d60911199bee716ba12433746bc1cca04be7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22?
Event: ucl-f... | yes | 1 | ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,039,144 | 78,039,144 |
68a94b79b09a1541d6f1936fc255f8ac1177b59d | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x37a53b921190ca99fc01593a50848d52fdfa96cade6f3a035052d980a141ffda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | mex-tij-tol-2025-10-22 | Will Club Tijuana vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | 78,052,716 | 78,052,716 |
12bc47b7a0f671683e0375e9732e2bd6bbff7129 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x54d73cf1a9e5f6c791f953ea0f286808b9e08f262d9c7bf5ff33f4cb79309bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | mls-mia-nas-2025-10-24 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24? | 78,132,963 | 78,132,963 |
46182171887c96764a197adf9a77408d385a1416 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xb2ee5288623d02b7e9a15ce7bf53a12ac1a4c38722d162d945b49a3506bb752d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25 | Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | 78,144,938 | 78,144,938 |
297d84ed84a728188c6511e5047d9b6f18129d6d | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xfe96b81152abf34035302b4c337abbf8417c1e8fc7b31478c398b3da814240e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | den-ode-bro-2025-10-27 | Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-10-27? | 78,255,049 | 78,255,049 |
b79a048e9fb10a766fff85d11ba8b3b45e2f5d42 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xbc32fb8e68917c22abe553167ba0a4993ba333e8640728ce2e6389d26f216724 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,156 | 78,427,156 |
33a131875f776046ac85a140532f9b744b48c906 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xc01b39629a217f230ee00e151d18d8b68fc207656f085f7c7e1e21a53db30adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | bun-pau-moe-2025-11-01 | Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01? | 78,460,552 | 78,460,552 |
67256f7209e1c788feeabd168bd02fc30cacf948 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xdcacd858a867ffff6651d774dbc47f62794e7250997bd64abb23d29129be8ced | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | aus-ccm-wel-2025-11-02 | Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,492,293 | 78,492,293 |
67f304c97c208f012d71191936472892a2169655 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x2371a52d10a33ebdd015d3e94ddc041e2ff0fc13669adfae5e64804a36430587 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | sea-ver-int-2025-11-02 | Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | 78,499,397 | 78,499,397 |
15ee43713df995af8f349dacedd95455a3ff7dee | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x2ca9d3ecc6bb27cac0c4bbec28be6ec12151730c2e029b013fa0eb133b44ed73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,714,710 | 78,714,710 |
87fa03388385e0eaaf0c408946102db109f15da0 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x03356611c0b38071c84265a0d5379de7cbda5ccf88556d79152b359ff275ad9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 7? | 78,730,280 | 78,730,280 |
a4d141bd474c4bc5f4865f2c8a8aae65b1843716 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xacf0a55bd8d3e66e02d03de24c0a5d9e8bb64a7975f7c294b4b9d951a275eda5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | spl-fat-taa-2025-11-07 | Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? | 78,730,280 | 78,730,280 |
ae66b4f1c53bdda211942f7e1c08162bbddc9e4c | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xdb254294208fa5745768e898ffb6807ad34d56bb3aa7111f3997d3cd052a0823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | aus-vic-mct-2025-11-08 | Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,753,234 | 78,753,234 |
655fd87715f2c879ec3785a1c419faa3cc830e9e | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xe4cd5d15445ff3bbeb97e1746953d64d6b8dfc966d40b4261862ac77f867f534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | ja2-ehi-vva-2025-11-08 | Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2025-11-08? | 78,753,234 | 78,753,234 |
b384fe1e7fb0cadd0ad5b30372d6d9c074e98afc | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x8b1946b4238a78e53b64017c3cbb94a10ebf4f8bdf927e98f878c8a1d6497811 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | ja2-mon-imb-2025-11-09 | Will FC Imabari win on 2025-11-09? | 78,791,903 | 78,791,903 |
d515c1dc2d983ac5cf4049e7b69ab0eaea4f4901 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x8f47df24fd876e288d38478e5746410a4da6e79d69f03b7df6b93eebaee8d4ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | jap-ssp-cer-2025-11-09 | Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2025-11-09? | 78,791,903 | 78,791,903 |
38f59a21cd2da96dc969be4f29a6d5ad1cc5c613 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x95168ebe304eb95e43cc1e92d918f7c9d066411bf38a1d2a6a5d14b56f8206ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | jap-ssp-cer-2025-11-09 | Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-11-09? | 78,791,903 | 78,791,903 |
133de0a5ec3466c5e154f2a67cf66f1dd19c2e9e | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x18aa509c338f93794f546fac1e7ee409495de0e06ac3571c6aa5284f98a79c47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | rus-kss-zen-2025-11-09 | Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2025-11-09? | 78,798,783 | 78,798,783 |
1fc3ab9eae1c4b0e25fe87d2e256a545bc91e347 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x55d03e0ea78038800bea3744b2fc248a0a4e728a2bb3af026fa3cfa35f9bbdad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | epl-not-lee-2025-11-09 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-09? | 78,806,756 | 78,806,756 |
a7a4b9ce4cd5074be0d0d5434bd5cac86661bbb9 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xec6b7069bc3c123dbb6e267ba6d49b1813e4d4d72fcea728fd5c89418f3264d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | bun-fre-pau-2025-11-09 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09? | 78,806,756 | 78,806,756 |
dd50eadd94a499af15bc8485dabfa9e5b50b24ca | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x56516ba4696345a5bfa11c1bd2ee0b8234299cff3ffe198d31fc15f0532ee355 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | fl1-lyo-psg-2025-11-09 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-09? | 78,818,773 | 78,818,773 |
f2f774aceae852ec51ffc95144bc64358b85b200 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x82596372bfd49ebafabdb2e0e9b100bc6112d2936484ab28b5b268c81db18f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | nor-bog-bry-2025-11-09 | Will Bryne FK win on 2025-11-09? | 78,818,773 | 78,818,773 |
5f628dabed9e1ff4cdc8375eae99e411f65bab89 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xfcc37cf92b8bc98c9cce7621ca6878dc8bdcbe48aa4990f341042e3128ebb094 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-11-09 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? | 78,818,773 | 78,818,773 |
aeeca043d5737c0cb36b3cffbe2be964cb9c107d | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x516f48091a7dbac257123212f28fcfb821aaf232d66f79e4de6ae8ccd823320d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | mls-sdg-por-2025-11-09 | Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,829,721 | 78,829,721 |
58dea3c1116a60b7534d8b5468eb2aada32426ea | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x936f642a35c0d4323b2621ccd243e17e571c9aebd341a74af77c515ac6637b73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11? | 78,902,322 | 78,902,322 |
a68543cd9ffe962272d5ababcb5f0118072d8bd5 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x6b97462eeb0b334d4286a3b2b82cc72d855d2ab5cde41cafec2d9990882930e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Will Peru win on 2025-11-12? | 78,945,193 | 78,945,193 |
7b18cad3fa24bba0e8260e137c03cb59aa65d38d | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x9a9c64034709a30232107e3fa6a09bf0823608e295e53aa03540b1675aaa9f2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | fif-tun-mtn-2025-11-12 | Will Mauritania win on 2025-11-12? | 78,945,193 | 78,945,193 |
6f6525cb0dfe655560ce71dc185397a692504b3a | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x8aafeddaae9c63e1b0fc7e8c7a3984e440eb44e7937d635c24ac1b67248a1d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | fif-tha-sin-2025-11-13 | Will Singapore win on 2025-11-13? | 78,985,828 | 78,985,828 |
8aa7d2cc5580b3fa4643279df64d1a62d2bb1386 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x98a69eee30afe8da11938da20f13ea809d908f6f8c8d4b741372cd7d8b86b3a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025... | no | 1 | uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Will Estonia win on 2025-11-13? | 78,985,828 | 78,985,828 |
1676859d5a03d92ad3cdb1b66b8b705941224e2c | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xbe803f23da3c563292fe7dd305bdb3ecab3bb75ab9ce168f8ac6faf6d43900cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | Event: ... | no | 1 | uef-arm-hun-2025-11-13 | Will Armenia win on 2025-11-13? | 78,985,828 | 78,985,828 |
0ad84831b1ac7e3827acfb61dc4f8aed98bf46bb | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xc1a936654a4cc54a314780d7de43af1ddc80dc0dacb2c1a3691c89a1059469eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-tol-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24? | Even... | no | 1 | fif-hkg-cam-2025-11-13 | Will Cambodia win on 2025-11-13? | 78,985,828 | 78,985,828 |
00342b75966d446ca99e1345a2f2d64ed6d52b29 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xe2d0f58afca1e7bd8ab86e0d1e589647a5a14255f3f67dbf0cbbb2655b3d6a93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-tol-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24? | Event: mls-mia-nas-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Even... | yes | 1 | fif-cze-smr-2025-11-13 | Will Czechia win on 2025-11-13? | 78,985,828 | 78,985,828 |
c354f26cfde75c3b291848be8fffcc8b3df32e1a | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xe391613febdb7c99111ee8b3ffb856aa6e99b033fc6b37da8f343a70d2cbdf62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24? | Event: mls-mia-nas-2025-10-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-10-27? | Event: den-ode-bro-2025-10... | no | 1 | uef-and-alb-2025-11-13 | Will Andorra win on 2025-11-13? | 78,988,403 | 78,988,403 |
36c2c884f4f29954ff14631de92acc8a34eb9bd1 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xd8e4dfe982c171384e14eee77b86551d7021d293ee050c251b21138b09bc37a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-10-27? | Event: den-ode-bro-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | Event: bun-aug-dor-2025... | no | 1 | fif-bur-nig-2025-11-14 | Will Niger win on 2025-11-14? | 79,036,163 | 79,036,163 |
3eabbe0635109047f2a3de9838414120fca6e467 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x28dd38ce9800145a1459c89d2bd063f49879613f6ba78b29798b0354ae63ffba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-10-27? | Event: den-ode-bro-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | Event: bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-pau-moe-2025... | no | 1 | arg-pla-gim-2025-11-17 | Will CA Platense win on 2025-11-17? | 79,166,188 | 79,166,188 |
b3cc6d9d82bac6b7d9fbf546e352470edaa7ecb8 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xc20be2aaf69b25b05ca2a91628a38910dfd50394fc53bc394a964f0a009ad51f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | Event: bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-pau-moe-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-11-02? | Event: au... | no | 1 | kor-any-suw-2025-11-22 | Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-22? | 79,355,676 | 79,355,676 |
aae0f5c73c1e989b34b72ea25e4b570571ba2a82 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x6693186b775382538986330bfee6938b243acf7bb9f8c20d358d0458c1d476aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-pau-moe-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-11-02? | Event: aus-ccm-wel-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | Event: sea-ver-int-202... | yes | 1 | elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,364,396 | 79,364,396 |
a32208891b91e8e54c65d07011e3123fd11776cb | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x60aa2715ac57bdf1c2dbc3fd798c204d72964fe785332db510e1915654528eeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-11-02? | Event: aus-ccm-wel-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | Event: sea-ver-int-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: aus-per-ccm-... | no | 1 | sea-tor-com-2025-11-24 | Will Torino FC win on 2025-11-24? | 79,465,177 | 79,465,177 |
7feedf3633a27c8b3f6a63ca2b4dbcc0b8b46898 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x7beb72ed7fce32f1e076babd3ae1c01bb98ee607f72bd782a4fca1d92e83d310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | Event: sea-ver-int-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 7? | Event:... | yes | 1 | sea-tor-com-2025-11-24 | Will Como 1907 win on 2025-11-24? | 79,465,177 | 79,465,177 |
fdb7bfd2ee4ea5f5188ad09ba36c638f58971646 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x9287d12288057cb853cef3165f2f9a7683e4666dd67ea02cac8f9c91ba0232a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on... | no | 1 | den-ran-ode-2025-11-24 | Will Randers FC win on 2025-11-24? | 79,465,177 | 79,465,177 |
f485e5e444d28597b0c738c904f1311c4c2142c7 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xf4f0184444ff1ebb207c716da1caa15b92929d522865dbc4daa82c6be2247183 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 7? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? | Event: spl-fat-taa-2025-11-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Melbourne City FC wi... | no | 1 | tur-iba-tra-2025-11-24 | Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-11-24? | 79,465,177 | 79,465,177 |
68c136f7b78707b6cd2bb377fe2ae62fe1cd8b05 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0x4d942c9cc02acc99fbfbe80fdd3cd328ffad302e31da38db7f11ccc9fcc23d5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? | Event: spl-fat-taa-2025-11-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: aus-vic-mct-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2025-11-08? | Event: j... | no | 1 | arg-uni-gim-2025-11-24 | Will CA Unión win on 2025-11-24? | 79,485,173 | 79,485,173 |
e0f169d015696267fc103c34e827993b4cd988a0 | 0x2c68dd0c1edb51bed21036580ef08e5163d4fa00 | 0xe2a4e3a627685cf33e917e3eff4dac2fad6c0ff4a9ecd940ab4b0fcfea47e362 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08? | Event: aus-vic-mct-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ja2-ehi-vva-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Imabari win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ja2-mon-imb-... | no | 1 | ucl-gal-usg-2025-11-25 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? | 79,511,531 | 79,511,531 |
72df2841100d8299278c373c0628b5131b38ea9d | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x4e1255b094640fcf4d058506c42c31e3d6f33e9de619b6fa8d7856aad11b3065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19?
Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | 66,909,884 | 66,909,884 |
b5b4071ea158256805d205e1199bd7b7af76ca3e | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x42f84d28c6a4b69882131da7240e1f158e51c7f8663bde1cc03b551746ddf96a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01?
Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": .... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | 67,425,836 | 67,425,836 |
73479ec0cbd7101d4a6b89734d51952a12c7e5b7 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0xb0fc3e83ca8d292e0a182a78d838a1417e0c41fcae8e5f50c8d82a77b9d0d24f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03?
Event: epl-che-wes... | yes | 1 | epl-che-wes-2025-02-03 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | 67,513,456 | 67,513,456 |
ccd915e57054a519ff0c6920f3bf0686d81ea4f2 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x3b3cba495145f5bf1a5b273db703d75df7573123c2c655a592efb13e2768b5f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | ucl-bre-psg-2025-02-11 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-02-11? | 67,816,530 | 67,816,530 |
af7239de6ff13e7faff3b024395aa4be060c2b57 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x56595482909ac59186ab3f1926f267ae32bf021d6e16ea220d468e53c8b430f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | ucl-juv-psv-2025-02-11 | Will Juventus win on 2025-02-11? | 67,817,857 | 67,817,857 |
372e16a6fe6cec02341c7c66390a41cff0262304 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x1e7b37b2e897c63067cd1df7444080f34182d6bea4d79f74c7fb189643d6bb00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | no | 1 | ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12? | 67,857,052 | 67,857,052 |
1b26cf80282dfe054192e6b506edf407cdf33cce | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x7c11961299d865fa80eb380bf74566d918566866ff775d7179c8d7ad7c79b127 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-15? | 67,985,643 | 67,985,643 |
86ed19744747c96147b0693cbdd2b0812feff6a5 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0xf5ce50b48dd595b08c6832714751dde43addc2f31eb8d1a63a30a7b59ed8b749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | 67,985,643 | 67,985,643 |
e262ffed81845e6409f76d25b8f8efa22608bd4a | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x2621417ed806633458dd7d6a98412a533d0de4db848d15601f1ad7a264de0b9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-wol-2025-02-16 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-16? | 68,011,570 | 68,011,570 |
5ea95bafcec068bee600fe283234b201c3990458 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0xadbd5bd971cd3d1a032af5a0793564e9a666c4d89fbbb8d91ef2e8f67b67d18e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-02-16 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-16? | 68,011,570 | 68,011,570 |
c12aabd89a1e30254e5db195f165dc4edfe62971 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0xe4ef6372951010fb66044f59b0d62efa38ddc68c9de7a5533648e299c1ffcfb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | 68,099,160 | 68,099,160 |
8201b69153d42466d5d1486bd9624ec4b7245474 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0xb396e213a8e9554d6a82d1438f7e2baf2256d6d6607f4b2e6aa17cb78b18d2c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-tot-2025-02-22 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-22? | 68,253,125 | 68,253,125 |
d50262fdf91fbfd5aa2bcbd9c7db6010b51a52e2 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0xba1058f2129c354bd4dd344855beaecd37ed0433299b1e5b9a98a7b323c9febd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-ast-2025-03-04 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-03-04? | 68,662,122 | 68,662,122 |
26e3c39fce4635dce94767cfb95bf0757ffd5062 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x26989941dcf12df9b73c5852172df6ba8186c29998afda3ab29f4f73043e3caf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | no | 1 | ucl-fey-int-2025-03-05 | Will Feyenoord win on 2025-03-05? | 68,698,018 | 68,698,018 |
584c67361ee7850f514e369f46a5980e02a76a34 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x891c92ef400365bd12188ce0a9330e8fbf4fd243a52648e301d6a0610e2d7144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | no | 1 | ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-05? | 68,698,018 | 68,698,018 |
2fc907b750d08692d3c046bffb15a2efa42e7a01 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x444ddf4d35e67e6b1c97ad264c018ff1c0d73ea0702773697d1beca4fb3f484f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | 68,842,737 | 68,842,737 |
8f4ccd5003fce02acc7efe37f70b222c97442520 | 0x2c77c848cbe94c196ce981027daa19be6b0bbde7 | 0x94db8967b61b91b389bd5f271aaadd9cd4ec814ee23b326363758e2039ae0812 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03? | Event: epl-che-wes-2025-02-03... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-che-2025-03-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-16? | 69,140,749 | 69,140,749 |
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