sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
777194716fadfc45a9f48a9cc280332c0d440b4a | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0xeb03cc9cb139e4adcf57a0ec29d17034939f3a3fab5ab513ee94804e1384283c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP?
Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | 63,941,041 | 63,941,041 |
e06813952e81616b683be2e40ef4fc41ab60ac46 | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0xace1e6111d8220cc4fc214006de1d4ae5222f8d4dbdc01c9da7efcd68f635691 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states?
Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stric... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 4 swing states? | 63,968,475 | 63,968,475 |
ceb594dacd9d9ce3c0815c3f9deb24036eed233b | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x04e7126c4a47acb718ed0da37f0cae9adcaa69e32e4554b51050dfe7991adf22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal?... | yes | 1 | ucl-inter-milan-vs-arsenal | Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | 63,978,432 | 63,978,432 |
7283fbd6e51940ae7e8c1d42831b3c15f7d44e9f | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x3aabace230b6da695d692d2f8fbe1a76f6cfd89bfddd7bc3e07bcecd6df42111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | ucl-paris-saint-germain-vs-atletico-madrid | Will Atletico Madrid beat Paris Saint-Germain? | 63,978,605 | 63,978,605 |
8e57661218563451b09ece77d2f9106f67fc5a1e | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0xc5a11b603f7bcdb1a028be7e6876c64242c993923567f90738bbb2b771bc8efe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | ucl-sparta-praha-vs-stade-brestois | Will Sparta Praha beat Stade Brestois? | 63,978,647 | 63,978,647 |
15b54a807deaee8e1b18a74791423c7f2665d288 | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x51056a6d3f120811ecf772bdedbd16aec9da447e253869748c7146e6f4349c0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | no | 1 | ucl-bayern-munich-vs-benfica | Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? | 63,978,703 | 63,978,703 |
b0f68f04e556603e6f51868fba0e0415d3872ce2 | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x8081f9aa747f0d0beb82d19a6515872f733c7f593e0d7747c8eda7b50947647b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | ucl-bayern-munich-vs-benfica | Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich? | 63,978,746 | 63,978,746 |
d99ba01e476a11bd510d68c2599820fdcdcecb9b | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x7e8e6480c844f120e72be80a6110f32bd87291c761ceb48221f3593e24b537b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | europa-league-galatasaray-vs-tottenham | Will the match between Galatasaray and Tottenham end in a draw? | 64,022,289 | 64,022,289 |
847e888a9b10f24498a99565ebfa7e50fd1b6868 | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x9d990f195ed120cbb182abc98926e350e55e812d9e9788308673a422eaceeebf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | no | 1 | europa-league-az-alkmaar-vs-fenerbahce | Will AZ Alkmaar beat Fenerbahce? | 64,022,289 | 64,022,289 |
6b0ed2b7ccc4daf1df04ae4df3e797468e261abe | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0xad1a2415c46bd1e32c1f6bd82dc92831aae50f7ab85241921f14b824759f2d63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | europa-league-hoffenheim-vs-lyon | Will Lyon beat Hoffenheim? | 64,022,289 | 64,022,289 |
9f56faa9771f6a2452201073b27b26fb3b8bc964 | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0xdb583b25bd4fa90d5d6aff4aec0ec26e59559c08672313c764cc30ba8e76fd6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | europa-league-galatasaray-vs-tottenham | Will Tottenham beat Galatasaray? | 64,022,289 | 64,022,289 |
6550eec529dce014d8342b5bc13d1198114c8dd9 | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x256d7c97ca03d7661600b2f93e860b2434e0b80fcb4bdf0740f9f351471be0a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | arizona-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win Arizona by 3.0%-4.0%? | 65,053,293 | 65,053,293 |
aee27f51f3c638df09984ab530be83ccff13eaf2 | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x2bdfa720f487796cc9ef0e0db659b2708ac3a6c24518767e53fd7e83e082acff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | north-carolina-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win North Carolina by 1.0%-2.0%? | 65,053,293 | 65,053,293 |
2f025f31cd4a622561c18d80e9a1cdf9f61bbcc7 | 0x2c9a9fde72dc826a482c63e5ee0b7fd53bc0f397 | 0x36ae039e3ffd0063981159d6ce48864e6afe50ef0344ba058758f981ff9b0835 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | north-carolina-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win North Carolina by 2.0%-3.0%? | 65,053,293 | 65,053,293 |
d21663896bc60fe9e46006fc776215e5d8c7d435 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x3382f3e31a513718ddbc72fb35999c4d323c657c59bfc0d719ef824119c2432a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025?
Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | 72,328,212 | 72,328,212 |
ed131e88491d3ffe909716fa962ac041336054ba | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x05c03df7cafc09c563d93821fb143a5059f95aa237494ad114ad378fd800ebcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025?
Event: cru... | no | 1 | crunchyroll-best-isekai | Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | 72,328,214 | 72,328,214 |
449bbf9bc3aaa029f7ca35dac4b3d33080fbdb0b | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xacf9f0975026262d0c9245c711099248c68b0307cacbc68bf0091918f4cfa27f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | crunchyroll-best-main-character | Will Maomao win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? | 72,328,217 | 72,328,217 |
c4d2ef986bdc1a2bdfdd4ff10ffbeac91274f2cc | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x16194fb8cc93c802541725f42577ad59c5ec62acc216eabfd052e647e8b42004 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Will 'Jellyfish Can’t Swim in the Night' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | 72,328,218 | 72,328,218 |
50cdb0bf8b6a838d0a1ba5236891294c046d2c45 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x3c71efed721e4f55f78c17b9b6ec3fee97909a64291c247d39c46d4f0a9f52d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | norway-chess-2025 | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | 72,482,175 | 72,482,175 |
d521bc36d7a0929e64c4bba6103ab1e50dafb985 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x2e84b9eec9ed75c7396656b46d05e7e93640098ac507b22224008322340ff2a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | norway-chess-2025 | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | 72,482,176 | 72,482,176 |
57d38e907d03df894de0d28d161fb85c89e407fb | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xc6c463d4559e8e157aa92ff2960a34e72c32d9ca0165cbd536dca74cfcbdaa00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | norway-chess-2025 | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | 72,482,213 | 72,482,213 |
c457b535e4d9c099a1815c921b531f19c8337cde | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x97d1ffdd8788fa14edaa4b10fbddc5bf8eb7164b9250e264c4e73d229b83dca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-what-country-will-the-champion-club-be-from | Will a club from Saudi Arabia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,613,146 | 73,613,146 |
009e10f6c6f6bf78166c79d9935f613fb3389510 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x5fc28bfcb6f16080415695b53f1f60820f403a94ce16696eea2f0085d823bc92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | 73,613,185 | 73,613,185 |
958f368e8e309bae70a0ac60dca09a4f5b6b4d03 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x872c8e9a4e4808a2ab714c267bd8a93f63cb739c853d7e4de2b42009e73f9b3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | 73,613,186 | 73,613,186 |
a1f11a97aacafb77510b8996a3a32cbf59a4185b | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xaa675b986cf783e4ee24d8366fa206a60bee4d56406c972bd6ce5942dbaf5820 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-new-2025-05-18 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-18? | 73,613,188 | 73,613,188 |
77d66f172eb7757096178aae60df514ca5052af0 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xf8a8cd4602a05b6dd7a87c0f793544e2a8db6d0d1ffc7b600d933399651469a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election? | 73,613,189 | 73,613,189 |
2328da34d74866887493da46d33d7c403ff24073 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x45690fa4be72c5b440dfb0f20ed2ddd8146a5f575463e713eeb62589c5bb816c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? | 73,613,191 | 73,613,191 |
4caa2b4b52bf17a67aab9e7bec908ebb0da9e1b5 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x1c3b536803c69bc10126f2381bc0944f29b7e3b38014bbd134365fc60df32528 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19? | 73,613,195 | 73,613,195 |
4a8973232bafe45b14d0cc111be1289d0aa8776f | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x3b256b777158a626315d4a3c1f984b823221692be00cabc2f7dd62a0e16068b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,613,197 | 73,613,197 |
eb28259b4942e17db1aa4aa0dabd668e2b6b95f2 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x74fa0572e3de0d389d671daf4a085b9b8af9e45688e988c8e4d3ab4254023f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | 73,613,198 | 73,613,198 |
14ad85ae57972999209529fd034c053ef07fbd19 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 73,613,200 | 73,613,200 |
53f78e208839e85526cd05938add5e99d8016a35 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xff09e179f1732c49d15c6465cf68ad82904e5025a27712a2b3f30e7413705b1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | 73,613,200 | 73,613,200 |
cdbc0189afdfb3e8be29413afd974c1717f7a083 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xdfdb6a6877a5e3e50f2bfd358ad94a7f7e994b45657a3bb0e308c6eb70aa2a16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | fa-cup-champion | Will Manchester City win the 2024-25 FA Cup? | 73,613,205 | 73,613,205 |
ae035aea3ec4bc609a35e447e17b8ac8d57d7a75 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xa6de2e10501f82a91e012ab54223416fcd3644b0ec054bdb22a68e2062527e50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 73,613,206 | 73,613,206 |
25122c77051bbd8bb7fbb9406dab1fb76150da63 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 73,613,208 | 73,613,208 |
2d1c8b123e6eb2bfeb34ed75994c7070ba122321 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x4700d79d86fbe174e3497a5153fe931b46a508b076ac60979babb2e8996f3179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | fl1-psg-ang-2025-08-22 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Angers SCO end in a draw? | 75,540,562 | 75,540,562 |
a7ad250d29c03701649e3820c86ef62c17eaf74b | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xe5db53bb45338e2f20949af7e5ddc04e094c33cb91fda6fb9ebbdf44fc1174a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | 75,540,562 | 75,540,562 |
44b67136e1946c4bc29a9ba041222984f1a2a04b | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x29ed51a720ff7947815b5ec6d1675da1403a72772566365688c02a36e1ff12b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | pga-tour-championship-winner | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2025 Tour Championship? | 75,624,625 | 75,624,625 |
7d998d3dc66c47660515791a695c9aaec00fc5d3 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x0fd3636e701edbabffcd18b94cb8a43c26f60f2147c01545fd930ab055d1e79f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25? | 75,668,396 | 75,668,396 |
ba37db3cac88592139a680f01da60d028d8b5b28 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x725c10fca91aaee3b81e298d2d4e5fe7198e89fd5b41bec1318d4aed5608fe0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | browns-week-1-starting-qb | Will Joe Flacco start Week 1 for the Browns? | 76,179,435 | 76,179,435 |
34d14c0cdaf9e8793bd8dfcc3f9de937b133dbe4 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xcfbdec703993f4345ef782aac92f2ce443c4bd2b885c9b7797cbb04df102c473 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | giants-week-1-starting-qb | Will Russell Wilson start Week 1 for the Giants? | 76,208,478 | 76,208,478 |
5f295f12b3410430b15460a96e776154c2f54ca1 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x049858a02f7bbd65c7c324655334fe288b6a85e2883d1ce848a8c9ed2340745d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | emmys-lead-actress-in-a-drama | Will Sharon Horgan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series? | 76,464,812 | 76,464,812 |
89204af7baa5ad3671178422b6bf320263f4b214 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x30a12edb27bdda550e43ccfd9eb4f53e29a24628dfb015ca2d9d04bebba4070f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | emmys-lead-actor-in-a-comedy | Will Jeremy Allen White win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series? | 76,464,812 | 76,464,812 |
201bcbe2e553210cae8226b061811adf4b90914a | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xef7642baddf14c139024aeae22b620ca3680500f7ca8c35a434e4f23090f06d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | no | 1 | emmys-lead-actress-in-a-comedy | Will Uzo Aduba win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series? | 76,464,812 | 76,464,812 |
171b8a03f86b2ff4ba3bd95153c5482e3b97f2b1 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x6e2b6ae502d0b4e1c1c67078fb90707c29a8e66018f3e210438e3828e98fdabd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Frieren: Beyond Journey's End' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-be... | yes | 1 | wnba-rookie-of-the-year | Will Paige Bueckers win WNBA Rookie of the Year? | 76,530,527 | 76,530,527 |
95122e85330c27cb6ace53962fd884b5001d3898 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ‘Mushoku Tensei: Jobless Reincarnation (season 2, Cour 2)’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-isekai | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Maomao win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-main-character... | no | 0.652728 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 76,575,397 | 77,104,446 |
4af87aa5a67efb40ed86640d3eab08d2ed57647e | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xef35d687fd77775772191767bfdc0bb629baa51bd07de56e17a68d9a2e6e3561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Maomao win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-main-character | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Jellyfish Can’t Swim in the Night' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Choi... | yes | 1 | arizona-house-special-election | Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-7 Special Election? | 76,861,806 | 76,861,806 |
9dac2ee38861cb5e0d7f17297a4b00938a39a57b | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x01b8a3a88a9ebe4f1bbb35ebfa6a170be07ef5b446c0dd2992c02f883f944ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Jellyfish Can’t Swim in the Night' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 77,104,445 | 77,104,445 |
7463859222c78480fc0e733db026e745392805da | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x6cf3987128ef2424eefe80ade1ca390a88d4d1f08ae5d970fbf4d4179cce6ce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025... | yes | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 77,104,445 | 77,104,445 |
765812ba781aa5e073861981634ee1035c3999a1 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a club from Saudi Arabia win... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 77,104,445 | 77,104,445 |
fea61837b7616d0a23cd9d234795bc9fcee6b40d | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xf2f4f33d14006b1996c3f27007a6a28317111f957664b3ea21d91aced5635e36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Event: norway-chess-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a club from Saudi Arabia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-what-country-will-the-champion-club-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-m | Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? | 77,104,445 | 77,104,445 |
4f75f4a099a9a2331c5f63e5b601a38d397fcfe3 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x11c6914be26e894f3111fb27d56b070363f6fc8956c2efb060474344e979eee1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a club from Saudi Arabia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-what-country-will-the-champion-club-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choic... | yes | 1 | pga-tour-championship-winner | Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2025 Tour Championship? | 77,104,446 | 77,104,446 |
bf7217ce9c89b21374a341299502391a68d9deb8 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x30a00c886993ec333c2ceb37a7bd6ba557b1457617f924eaca64922f44b97206 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | nl-east-division-winner | Will the New York Mets win the NL East Division? | 77,104,446 | 77,104,446 |
921c628fac391d0f84a2e7be088ee71f03e21653 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xe8dbe1d5bd78689933e0b61f204338b4270c97879264b30da891a85229311d06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-ars-new-2025-05-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes i... | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-w | Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2025 US Open? | 77,104,446 | 77,104,446 |
5d7df349d120236afc3ec0fab28ca71da672a221 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x3ee86a850a9f5b495d65ad5e409e5903a1f14ccc78c4e8bfa82fdb4c497b543d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-ars-new-2025-05-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election? | Event: poland-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | 77,130,766 | 77,130,766 |
af509588be5ad5cc4f640a6b0393d6ae7f001c33 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x5bc75e146bd30e715695ea21722b3865ef93ccbdf059ac2a2c7e71aef050643c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election? | Event: poland-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | ucl-kob-b04-2025-09-18 | Will FC Kopenhagen vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? | 77,130,766 | 77,130,766 |
78ce04b7e1c0f8a174d9f27a0f864b03bf05e8f5 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x7b6e85e03ed153078765bcb4520ea17c2308e56a6060f3177ade0b80fde2ae99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19? | Event: epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-w... | yes | 1 | cleveland-browns-qb2-for-week-1 | Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns QB2 for Week 1? | 77,130,766 | 77,130,766 |
fcb2b421d4f161bc959b9593e4fd7a4e9a7b144a | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x0337b70abb6403936be4836f52c380ac31b1ac1a013a92e03568496ec7008549 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19? | Event: epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | Event: romanian-presiden... | no | 1 | american-league-winner-2025 | Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 American League Championship? | 77,732,689 | 77,732,689 |
f53cdeb616d3dc7d006c4637b3ec0b6764cdeb2b | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0x68a14da906e9e7cd029f77fcbf8abc7396c5923e14973751a94c99f6daa9d7b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | 78,064,339 | 78,064,339 |
cc4d3cc8ae21bcaddc0d2c5bc24b88605f2f4460 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xbe3877266e119ce1420166dded4f04146030ec78126bcc084f0f8dbf303e28b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Socialist ... | yes | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 78,064,339 | 78,064,339 |
80d8faceb8b8253bf6a4a37da018c3dd57e370f8 | 0x2cc711083e3dac99ef2a9203cd2630e764be5536 | 0xc3375de2237d0ddc1a807c3413cf41f0153559492239dc4d358407ee3e8dfff7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | ... | no | 1 | new-orleans-mayoral-election | Will Helena Moreno win the 2025 New Orleans mayoral election? | 78,064,339 | 78,064,339 |
4285215af1b42320603c047c3376a3dbb1d089b9 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x3ab32876cd67a2be2abe85041c28bc9a19dfcfefcc34c64253ca4a71176c0beb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19?
Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | 63,301,902 | 63,301,902 |
61e2a785c5648c4e8c600478869a640f12c421ff | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0xda9d0570e804be048d4808054f18772fb16045081a87a2db867726cf588a3250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19?
Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidenc... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | 63,301,926 | 63,301,926 |
f5b1efa81b8c3769d72c3d43c2b916e4b38369f1 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x42e9d7194aeff245c472dc9c6cd77596540e366e1530aa2c14039f0ee1853c66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Lazio beat Twente?
Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio
Pr... | yes | 1 | europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Will Lazio beat Twente? | 63,451,633 | 63,451,633 |
dc4045127e80d0c16344d93b49779e530d2448a9 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0xfc059df6971dd866a4274202d885e0a8c7c9c1fdeae4b1dde2fdd12449cf611f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-tottenham-vs-az-alkmaar | Will Tottenham beat AZ Alkmaar? | 63,451,633 | 63,451,633 |
9c0f68c21138621bf00335be48b9ee4c79742f2a | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x0441c0e10463a1da15bfe09815a38b8bb495bf7b5075805e593c33c797aa8ebc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Oct 25? | 63,497,406 | 63,497,406 |
28546cc908cb2635a9f860dd5b16c47228b05457 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x85dc0fc38ff79608d47d733c0e168318b22c5cdc54c75e05836e0d22523a5ff7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-25 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 25? | 63,497,406 | 63,497,406 |
b0c0c9c2a02590869d31a53827d4b5966af60748 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0xa48b8e7498449769e61c278a9e01d3ff4bf08e401fc10a7dd47b7ffc508359a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-wol-2024-10-26 | Will Brighton win on 2024-10-26? | 63,541,073 | 63,541,073 |
28e913079c45fe0f53a29e76b905aced60a270e8 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x1ef8856ad6fad61ece10b294307896db019cace89c8130115e34e0ddf34eeb97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-new-2024-10-27 | Will Chelsea vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | 63,572,182 | 63,572,182 |
baa2ab3d8b389e8454ceafca3ec0db0f9d453ebc | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x31de3b3976325ff4e345ed6ba33e925c07910941009ce3a512d994a05cc1881a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-mun-2024-10-27 | Will West Ham vs. Man Utd end in a draw? | 63,572,182 | 63,572,182 |
e913e43145afbbcecebb0d60dcb5ddd3de1ae88f | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x3573e0dab40fd7b6bec34f8b81ec16e766d536455ef535380fe4b02a206d047a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-liv-2024-10-27 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-27? | 63,572,182 | 63,572,182 |
709b906b213f5d9d513047ab3130baf662a56f19 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0xdda364280a69d59c557c13e65a3df3aa4263697d6d7593704848953cc211e26e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | epl-ars-liv-2024-10-27 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-27? | 63,572,182 | 63,572,182 |
1fa6973ab75d0921e282058c8c10e2bd42d9a907 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x8f15067402ad1251222860b6c9c4abee693f4f7149cf23353d881457b2f90580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | yes | 0.999976 | venom-the-last-dance-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend? | 63,612,885 | 63,612,885 |
6911682c9c75fadb16d36298ba51f901899ba4c2 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x9babb6134f1e3dfe8d5bf059fd33d1c3422c59d677558639bfd01b2e9cfcc2b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | epl-sou-eve-2024-11-02 | Will Southampton win on 2024-11-02? | 63,862,193 | 63,862,193 |
21eb40205373c02cd21915d9e18b261dcb09a1e1 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0xe3b2350c7c35142ddc6b01c3b8714da5ca3a9190b65c8421be0573954dc110c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-cry-2024-11-02 | Will Wolves vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? | 63,862,193 | 63,862,193 |
974889711be29b64ff20074a8f5bdbb258e071e0 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x8dfcce7f3514096505c314c4c75178994367ba21235f748e02c8a7e2ec54bddb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | ucl-celtic-vs-rb-leipzig | Will Celtic beat RB Leipzig? | 63,936,153 | 63,936,153 |
20f633f1de1581483edb3b232a1a923b56c4aff5 | 0x2ce7d1fb37ee9d5779e3c4759944180f2bdefd4a | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lazio beat Twente? | Event: europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 64,407,632 | 64,407,632 |
75883e95e372641e298b2700b1770d549b068fa7 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x581eea39706e06758488272c6bf74d1f3a688e30e8ee763861b014376d8e3072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | 75,673,749 | 75,673,749 |
dc817081e4595705bba973915f5c1e129997f3bc | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x0507c7ac1ee85773490af2d6385af3016835e0d1d385b2a57c200754bfcf113c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19
Predict the user's choice and... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | 76,208,767 | 76,208,767 |
5e2e9e9a053367dbf2ce872b62814ec1e41896b2 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x200f7ae53b2c36940e1b2563e3f6e75cafd26132d0a426d25e85c101c818d8a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target m... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on August 18? | 76,208,767 | 76,208,767 |
c70f8781ca411935f04c45e39f2dcc7a2a7eab6b | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x24ccf0e2be12613ffaf615ae2bb7bcf4b113df376559203f1138e1629ab51b13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on August 18? | 76,208,767 | 76,208,767 |
6f0d51acebf6293c1a18cc739af0b1a236f16e3d | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x84cf394f7ff12bba065fe8a9cc2028f0d97091f94160799670b2193e071fa531 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on August 20? | 76,208,767 | 76,208,767 |
93272baf96716b0c037d043ed4fd141f6fda5acb | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x97e842f3f3eb23c916b7ed952119ebdb616f7c52bb0ff1baa2a7160ea26d527c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 19? | 76,208,767 | 76,208,767 |
1998c34b68a63ed3467597bd4e6fbf711b83778c | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xa24c8dbfa04d063f64dd329cf61240d9d5e08a680ee2a54811e887d9c38c77cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 17? | 76,208,767 | 76,208,767 |
ebb7963b3f97cc900dff11febe1d62faf2ae2bf4 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xbea35697449156906f6bf045b6bccc3ce1f4588a6b5f7bfdb130ca988508e223 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on August 18? | 76,208,767 | 76,208,767 |
4cd1a329adc0fabe66f4ad24da4c4744200fe3bd | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xac59c982f6746c65ceef56cfbb57426e446ad13094d30f06c42c5f5a00e1ef25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 17? | 76,208,768 | 76,208,768 |
640668580705a4a60e603311e28d0644cae43bf3 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xd81b0ebfd6a48c9ef8456754afa5546cf659630874e86ea6d59390e3d5283f78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | epl-bri-ful-2025-08-16 | Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 76,208,768 | 76,208,768 |
79c520d249bdd85d4d4694292788cfb78743f0eb | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xaf496c4af0557165faa7abfaf335c26f3b24070ef046ceff30af61b1fd5b6dcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 30? | 77,166,130 | 77,166,130 |
c1cfca8d10db453d2dc6af1da1acadfcbd5ec53f | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x9c4db06bfdab644a6cf9ccebfbee149f977ad33b02b2138eace2b8d185006311 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | next-nfl-head-coach-fired-874 | Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired? | 78,878,769 | 78,878,769 |
3aac04bba734956ed6173d0df5b53be516066798 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xe06ffbd2e0c95668df75c48de18f187f3d7f35fd83d432e29238c8e907678023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | black-to-the-future-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4.25m? | 79,624,820 | 79,624,820 |
81a588262bb30aee63f67f5cc1ed1c668719384f | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x27c9acfb13d42a7994be95a3f974f70aeea33cca6368219b00cea2329eec095f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-november-30 | Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on November 30? | 79,756,522 | 79,756,522 |
351751c7a89b03da6191d94109b8fe160362ade6 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xfc52f6822b9f0da7e736d9e170a34680083f94c00fdfc882c0c58615999a6594 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-december-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 1? | 79,758,271 | 79,758,271 |
49eeb2e916b40c7c11dd0f68312913590d69b2c2 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x91a219ea6b0f0e09e2aa364d43773f7bb53c4a77f23e489c659a4b1bf282249b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | which-horse-will-win-the-breeders-cup-classic | Will Forever Young win the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic? | 79,764,753 | 79,764,753 |
cc16125af197e43958f6ca33bb7e3878a98ec10f | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xea785aa46c4a6c6d732dc530e13fc9c9bbd2f41f2751e0a2dcaf1c2bc2c33087 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | pltr-week-november-28-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close at >$164 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,764,825 | 79,764,825 |
280e5efcc44f153f68a41c4d39468171b90ad1e7 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xd6f1157d11136071b20710d14b61c9097e927e424653a41b730e4c2c5ba565e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | when-will-israel-first-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? | 79,764,914 | 79,764,914 |
6a610a2fd318adb7faac0baad97539b9678d9b9a | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xcdabce2100b4ad7311964bdc0cdbf9866773833d6d186e9c48f06da6cec1c315 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | when-will-israel-first-raid-gaza-aid-flotilla | Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET? | 79,764,921 | 79,764,921 |
0959d7a3ca29905dfbb606355bed61c22447a113 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x882fa255da8f2171d02c1ddbced187c4507b3fa8d9af8495d2e0bed893165e98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on November 30? | 79,788,414 | 79,788,414 |
082c92102ea0e75c79a3c9be2d10f2d2de1f5a65 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0x48babb16a2a5e05c87d64aef3615588fb9e7f06892a6c3efe668e6457c850bc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on November 28? | 79,790,037 | 79,790,037 |
04608a2e90dc447a8a402e945a56f892a24edc09 | 0x2d4bf8f846bf68f43b9157bf30810d334ac6ca7a | 0xadec1845123cd22265f7f854d837482cc2ef35c2407709aa5b7f7682d40ace10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-26-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | aapl-week-november-28-2025 | Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,790,052 | 79,790,052 |
606ee62e36724a30a644b6c43dfc9da75e51e965 | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x57496280f376de9c49c72744916b95d457fc5907219000ee4248df9c2fead97d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13?
Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | 77,653,360 | 77,653,360 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.