sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bbdb95a413e2bd991ed377a095da9f6e289cc8bb | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xd3457fc7f747c663af1be14df4f929f7f720f5a63f2d01984478a195016db882 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,683,726 | 63,683,726 |
f5a9d10273c390ae4ce24cbcc008edbe1d5c0611 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xf6b879884a46ab271252fc2aaec84fa935d22794b85e95d2874665c162f158f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million v... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,683,726 | 63,683,726 |
9177c63f7e14209c930401dee25248911d06371f | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xf8022618d95dd46f59db1a7bc394cae964a5443faae724d035831fe289de17fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 150 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate have 55-60 mill... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,683,726 | 63,683,726 |
68a0c32bd549cf9ec50b42a0ec0aed002990a0c5 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x5f8c676b9c5a61af5c10e21d27be5c3af4937fe56cb24c399ce955b33ddf2e42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the debate have less than 50 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the debate have 55-60 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the debate ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,718,347 | 63,718,347 |
79172b6a1d791104498e26184d4da19e2c8deee6 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x81d3b78939693cb9b4613408ad4bfd751dfcdf96bac396a5e9d0f48f1f7d338b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the debate have 55-60 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the debate have 70-75 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.950632075249982e-05
3. Question: Will E... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,747,741 | 63,747,741 |
9eefc4b8e974e2f2ba743b8de7c482b52437ee5f | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x05904e19533e1babd563de24a3da89d87d00741b98b6dc692025f21ef6c52319 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the debate have 70-75 million viewers? | Event: how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.950632075249982e-05
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 200-224 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-199 tim... | yes | 1 | nevada-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election? | 64,101,810 | 64,101,810 |
64f92389caacd6ab5dbcb43e3c43eaffda1d4897 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x99cae1b83694726803dd03dea2465fee332ba788b8a9d24e42e9ddd5391c6b9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 200-224 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-199 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellis... | yes | 0.375 | nevada-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election? | 64,101,813 | 64,101,813 |
078c5f1351ecf8d30e1e6ec3f5fb58d0140a4c3c | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb17631413f217b33763f011a61990dd420f760af13bba6cdccd68c52b2b72d4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150-199 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 60-69 times this week? | Event: donald... | yes | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,226,526 | 64,226,526 |
34c0fb3a841e0d3be5981aa305fe7b6b81cca537 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xc7599c7b33b64f891750b57439384d163f547600fed4a6007918751f8f37740d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Caroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? | Event: caroline-ellison-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 60-69 times this week? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 35-39 times this week? | E... | no | 0 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | No Ethereum all time high in 2024? | 64,226,539 | 64,226,539 |
d480529485e1e3412d02899371265675ed779c64 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 60-69 times this week? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 35-39 times this week? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times this week? ... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,435,184 | 64,435,184 |
090c89f6725d387c6c53c4f8e48a1c99d77ce9d4 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xc3a4f19e8ac1697422f97a3667d2f5d16998bf047f4f3c459a8c32e5e6e730cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 35-39 times this week? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times this week? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 times? | Event: ... | no | 1 | sri-lanka-legislative-election | Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Sri Lankan Parliamentary elections? | 64,435,184 | 64,435,184 |
60b6aeabf71947a02441cc1e1b9efd2bf84889da | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x21559998482bf5dfbcaf0f5409edd34eebd84c8998df622f9da8ff1e1f248a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 25-29 times this week? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 Septe... | yes | 0.950413 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will someone else be inaugurated? | 65,146,452 | 66,976,622 |
e749b3a34500f7d3aafb3c8c49377292a1b5837e | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x82abf4d6746fa6787cb95f812cc90a4ebd2c827a5eeb8bb815548a6c517f15ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225-249 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-2... | yes | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,952,725 | 65,952,725 |
2c257569bdee3e7fb7243cb098343b0da3bbec22 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xa9c74134d3aa50ae30b967b0a2f1fc00f055bcc1d9c9d35e8d9e48ab0869cd0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times? | Ev... | yes | 1 | time-2024-person-of-the-year | Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | 65,952,725 | 65,952,725 |
989e2c94b3c42763abe26bcafc8f07c4c32d3a0b | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x6ddae979d5d0a9cb079c113c3ee3a1fa3acba913cb56c16cbd44c7394e35d0c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad... | yes | 0.090884 | trump-issue-100-executive-orders-orders-on-day-1 | Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1? | 66,993,862 | 66,993,894 |
00d9a27a075d7d9cd2d232e650899b1848943564 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x06a4e0938f94320ddec2bcbae7234adddd448c7bda3b170b0156680805fc7d79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-17-24 | Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24? | 67,157,121 | 67,157,121 |
954ae52adb69dd195db08c45397a1840ff5a16fa | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x97329a7701a60a2c8e8d3014d085743a332b2031569079e7d39a490d7cf7de76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Even... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-17-24 | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24? | 67,157,121 | 67,157,121 |
3ab75fa5cf9023aea203a608772e62eae918a57b | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb1b0993b3c9327effe0cab3b3a636032d53c57548b56dddf43c498ab80bdd475 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympia... | yes | 1 | melania-fdv-on-friday | Will $MELANIA FDV be less than $1b on Friday? | 67,157,121 | 67,157,121 |
ae1be6af7d315500bbf56c0f5c293b4378df146a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xf0c1a75c73b4b07dfacfc2a02ed52c9595139426088276edb46741e5d34ce1af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad? | Event: womens-chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iran win the 2024 Chess Oly... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,483,283 | 67,483,283 |
20c1dc5d51b3d0d7a41508af0a60657ec2463f2a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb094d77714fa8f64902c7b2d0694a465cf447a732c822e303ca9915326a9351d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad? | Event: womens-chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Iran win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,501,088 | 67,501,088 |
289c818be565121bb20f2c99167b1524c7f1bb7e | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x728da1e41ef928b553a6bfd5b94657cf3145849c06512e9a9e51b46bd38297e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iran win the 2024 Chess Olympiad? | Event: chess-olympiad-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? | Event: elon-musk... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,521,693 | 67,521,693 |
2ecf0dd8352882ee4eeeb7320418020aee71edcc | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x768e4c42853279eb2992fc46e82c91bd634aa6e5aaea96a16f7fa3ef9ff3213e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 125-149 times? | Event: elon-musk-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,521,693 | 67,521,693 |
7ab60bf6e63da3ac791cb0b3e1a93f7e46d0541c | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xcdd6d272c9f10433c07bb8d6d306f881ee66633d5c7b87ffd5220835ffd5d4ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 125-149 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-twe... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,638,020 | 67,638,020 |
07b5bb3b56d8106bf5b1d8095bf9ee0218749b28 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x14daa7330b70d7bd90ef6e14824f744a08ffc6bb2836abe80302776f9c438a6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 125-149 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8054947726720155
3. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wo... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Will Kanye tweet 160-179 times on February 7? | 67,682,308 | 67,682,308 |
3ee062304aa4428f55307bfdfebdaae54bf65d7b | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x1c63ae01d503fa11c82122979698b29c9733da9aaa1fac73793206afd16b8064 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-27-oct-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8054947726720155
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon twe... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Will Kanye tweet 140-159 times on February 7? | 67,682,308 | 67,682,308 |
19edc4aef5d197b843d183c3d0e91875ce3d3495 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x2dcff4187f527a1b21339930f262e4210020680416fe5b150d70cf24871920c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Will Kanye tweet 120-139 times on February 7? | 67,682,308 | 67,682,308 |
349ee95f3e8b3794766a516973795a5757546552 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x3b09fd773ad7ff6291439bf29211ce273221360fedae52f97f3f0cee7dc18c84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Will Kanye tweet 200 or more times on February 7? | 67,682,308 | 67,682,308 |
bebb981e4c9a05f8d7483064547c1580970a8dcd | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x19e47810470382b6c2537e80720f486d22117c8411db82cb1258c7a30718d423 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0649848564348463
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris wi... | yes | 1 | trump-potus-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Feb 7-14? | 67,757,833 | 67,757,833 |
41130f0410fa73c8e8574a0656f06622b28f5986 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x3b9e7bfe69e5f8e757406110715afc4a6dc830e407198be7ac525e2ce6b495cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0649848564348463
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? | 67,757,833 | 67,757,833 |
b8b1dddc64d99d387b73e27574040c3eac2fc9b3 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x3e043bb71fda49df1afa26ff9bddee4fe328af7b912c4a7fc6a97e142aee95f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | yes | 1 | trump-potus-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Feb 7-14? | 67,757,833 | 67,757,833 |
4290fd1c87a02a8a8bfde5fef0a01bb0b7a89b5e | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x62579342b0aafd65f6a79f6bbd6231d2d114ba26f8bb06a77096f0b6cf7ca066 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 20-29 time... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14? | 67,768,646 | 67,768,646 |
e2d1086adda19d7b89dfd4370962b39fc56dcf54 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x7cf69edeeab50a0d8698d536f1cd8dd41d5c98eba6f0ac4611cd41bbc456da8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 t... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 11? | 67,824,934 | 67,824,934 |
0179c92ec585adb4cb895528c3b913484cbc89b7 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xd6bc17d21a4ff93f64689257e0a5014f05f393269564d95f931b74703649a590 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400 or mo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on February 11? | 67,824,934 | 67,824,934 |
4eed9738805b323c4a8a2dff3a35b4deb13cb2b8 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x1fc70f7d53c176abc9bbaeef65d7af334c5d5bdea3786f182290ea90dbb669d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win Neva... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 11? | 67,863,934 | 67,863,934 |
8626f276f2fbb250d7e14dcbf4d563ae7d11ca39 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x95a7018a4ef25e1bf6b1f43ad255452632ea2bfdbaf7261c5423dd244bca5a58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election? | Event: nevada-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win N... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | 67,863,934 | 67,863,934 |
1684f78df3139009f41dca8ce79a24fc3ba87c15 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x30c7bee3492c7f92fff48832a4e5e9b411bfaffd9777ab731d799ae57be293de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election? | Event: nevada-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election? | Event: nevada-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.375
3. Question: Will a Democrat win A... | no | 0.650184 | what-will-donald-trump-say-during-his-thursday-press-conference | Will Trump say "Crypto", "Cryptocurrency", or "Bitcoin" during his Thursday press conference? | 67,866,759 | 67,907,941 |
0650d0bdc27eb13a93d0a53638f27750913d11b0 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe7107507f194ff49d6b5dcf244cad52278384e319dcae0a7bff6966056bfafc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election? | Event: nevada-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.375
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No Ethereum all tim... | no | 0 | what-will-donald-trump-say-during-his-thursday-press-conference | Will Trump say "woke" during his Thursday press conference? | 67,872,677 | 67,907,941 |
8f350637fce7b3bb38fbd82b2e395e8de84423d7 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xf4d8f5dcd9f6d7cca429e895387b260e15287f30f4217dcd4485f4009313e5a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Eve... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14? | 67,875,186 | 67,875,186 |
cb9e24311c0707736f5a1723eefe47ddfda8418f | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x2a510fccdd0eafd1e7a36ce8f42ad97eca48e934e97be6f265a047acc27d4300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another party win the most seats in... | yes | 0.858108 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 25°F or below on February 19? | 68,068,167 | 68,068,167 |
735ba9c432dea754db0f532ab7b0fd772f28b5f6 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xef9c3a160843e4d35dbf53ae2982f13bb808da3d5dec9cb43bfca6fd5f75bd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Sri Lankan Parliamentary elections? | Event: sri-lanka-legislative-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 42°F or below on February 19? | 68,068,711 | 68,068,711 |
957674aee1de23066686e9cd02b166fd7912d688 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb124be96d6db3ccdf979b61babea03ed5a74b4d24bbcb7f9a9a3fd7ff3f83b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Sri Lankan Parliamentary elections? | Event: sri-lanka-legislative-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will someone else be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9504131264084... | yes | 0.408235 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 24°F or below on February 20? | 68,076,995 | 68,147,528 |
3c60aa05abf5247a4e8e66bb8e199276fa0fb397 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x15e61785bf423d21cad2f38dcef2ae63e94e383e2408e49500be20fe6b32b7fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.950413126408469
2. Question: Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump... | no | 1 | paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m? | 68,104,591 | 68,104,591 |
f6d4fd7e8c999379ae3e6776dd44d0c3ff980e59 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe61887255ff91d6568bfa175b63ead8abbe1efacb6c35cc97928677e30d0584a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump issues 100... | yes | 1 | paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $21m? | 68,104,591 | 68,104,591 |
6f474e4fa9f9c44cda40511cba92404b79f7992b | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xcd7e4c4f17b0ba874c13243ad27a630fdec9f7e872cb0fd239bf4444a7a1a300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1? | Event: trump-issue-100-executive-orders-orders-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0908840938702... | yes | 1 | how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Will 'The Brutalist' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,109,790 | 68,109,790 |
e1922c0f035e45462761c2f12750785a12d9dd1a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xcc25e1ff4ae8bffa2151f8d2791891e366531d44b3bfb8497b4b5550290e7afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1? | Event: trump-issue-100-executive-orders-orders-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09088409387025777
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-17-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 0.333333 | how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Will 'The Brutalist' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,120,275 | 68,120,275 |
dddb585ee51370000d31c3f8ca38fda9477335e0 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x0f2fbd358344081eadf7e291caf1a103acd91bb0d98dc247128aa4f02e07d357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-17-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-17-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MELANIA FDV be less than $1b ... | no | 1 | how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Will 'The Brutalist' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,120,798 | 68,627,835 |
f9ecfa28088425081ff8ccb58a6b0189af2be3f0 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x24a791f48d137c47b055324c7cf521c0e75fe3ac8489ff20539f66e9f2c7a2f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-17-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $MELANIA FDV be less than $1b on Friday? | Event: melania-fdv-on-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 19? | 68,129,296 | 68,129,296 |
2177ae93b9c646d9b897ac4f447d887bf84e1552 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x1582c8b3970ff43baeba2fd7aff45821ea69484ab518dab6df9f83cd16d1dbd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $MELANIA FDV be less than $1b on Friday? | Event: melania-fdv-on-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Ja... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20? | 68,147,519 | 68,185,340 |
0d9eab5baafaa93ea9701a7fc7a9a4686f512634 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x1f9d445e5b5cd88b029e59a3babac573de0032ec5c096cbc47cb644c4fb82c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-3... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on February 19? | 68,147,796 | 68,147,796 |
0a79047e9e1da6e137b94a5e6bde4a0256688974 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x8522dfdf247311941269938bb119229e23e05eb73b12319e80354a1de64674a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 tim... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 26-27°F on February 19? | 68,147,796 | 68,147,796 |
c47b34a172b4e7730c24ec726bb92f2d713107d1 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x923ee33535571178c9af823dbc919addb0a82f01f28aed58231a29862b9e63ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19? | 68,147,796 | 68,147,796 |
af35e7583f5c9ac891692251b056d166c7daf614 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe70163ed27e8751814fb0dd75863bc144e3f030468225cd2c7c6c777012436e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye tweet 160-179... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 28-29°F on February 19? | 68,147,796 | 68,147,796 |
53889dd20a24c47b7c9ee3d2183545f574a6febb | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x6a2fc69d10a5531ecaabde8835632d9684dad1410b3ac7054ac5d0ecc971c100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye tweet 160-179 times on February 7? | Event: how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on February 21? | 68,147,822 | 68,147,822 |
a2c2eb1b76f9420ca8379fdeac55eeacfcb6c2fc | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x9bc05bd5a79524889ace45940c0312c09dcd43ad7b60569b16af5dc224818f68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye tweet 160-179 times on February 7? | Event: how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye tweet 140-159 times on February 7? | Event: how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 19? | 68,155,498 | 68,155,498 |
4c8e3de477a599e37f5675cac862caf3e5ca8b3a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xa0b39de5c5a9631b6c5440ff75f47207b5eed99c84ecce2b34ca65221de6b00c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye tweet 140-159 times on February 7? | Event: how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye tweet 120-139 times on February 7? | Event: how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 19? | 68,155,498 | 68,155,498 |
950c4494d6edaff6ac3a0c8d6a43d57f3c00b565 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xa87a47f9ef3a73f3d252b7790d49c5f89b96d1f19e21a54c78c615b2e442f5eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye tweet 120-139 times on February 7? | Event: how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye tweet 200 or more times on February 7? | Event: how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 0.905261 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 36°F or higher on February 19? | 68,155,498 | 68,155,498 |
aada6f19b72ee17d5bae8e1f6df45e900dabea33 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xd3a2cde44416b16221822b4ba015bbdfcb33025fa0f88447daaf6389c52cb094 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye tweet 200 or more times on February 7? | Event: how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Feb 7-14? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 20? | 68,155,498 | 68,155,498 |
3992a876d31fdf4db8bcdda86b442968e79b32cb | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x97e638bef6685719024d696c603be3dda0839340c229e19eeb4876425851ed00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Feb 7-14? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Feb ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 33°F or below on February 22? | 68,156,130 | 68,156,130 |
85fb37131cc14dd49c96f410f9db12c9ed002721 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xad5a14545d233bd69515ba1f76e79f6d0e5b6400ebed50a1ee1fa382e7e24200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Feb 7-14? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 ti... | yes | 0.45454 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on February 22? | 68,163,367 | 68,163,367 |
0332e7bad8f999ec98d8ce77bdbf597fdf2b15cf | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x3b3300336201c85885f9f3859af490093b65b94ec960f74811b672682996be3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Feb 7-14? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC b... | yes | 0.963795 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 25-26°F on February 20? | 68,168,852 | 68,168,852 |
ddb55f41b47315d3cc84257021d755fa5bb74cd7 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x25ae67b3e2ad3897a6bb4261c4df6de2e56fbc49870dbd3687051e0cad196fea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | 68,185,340 | 68,185,340 |
bc30b38a10b9d4faf138a49b755d09318eadc9be | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x3ea3885f4ed7c17732db41ce4d8c8357a59bf7c1bce13cc267af3f1ad2714938 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on February 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-11 | C... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 20? | 68,185,340 | 68,185,340 |
7c1d6358b42e7cf0f1219806d6b3e21c9bfffc11 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x8cb32c38ecc45b54180c03bd84832b358941d87d58fbd8bbcab27bff45e75001 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on February 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-11 | C... | yes | 0.714286 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on February 21? | 68,185,340 | 68,185,340 |
842e06ad1d8b6ac2e038828109ee1f082e27a85a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xac7f1ba2389f833689eb771fbabe8ceefc7552d59625c07979577631c6b3cf00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 0.576641 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or below on February 23? | 68,186,357 | 68,186,357 |
01f15d5cd3f5422c1d2e1af9597f5a8d8f5971b4 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x91d5e8bb28ef715063ce8eb387ecb45a778036805351da2a356ab335c757f400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto", "Cryptocurrency", or "Bitcoin" during his Thursday press conference? | Event: what-will-donald-trump-say-during-his-thursday-press-conf... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-23 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 38°F or below on February 23? | 68,197,226 | 68,197,226 |
101308230f0dd617e2a00bbd3b1bc9a8f4e4882f | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xa75e3649070819ce144791e52f2dc75a6d31a41c8493c6d1bcc9da13c54e5e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Crypto", "Cryptocurrency", or "Bitcoin" during his Thursday press conference? | Event: what-will-donald-trump-say-during-his-thursday-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6501836823519973
2. Question: Will Trump say "woke" during his Thursday press conference? | Event... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | 68,205,084 | 68,205,084 |
932deadd05735b46f857bbb31e60c3360ee55293 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xd64ccc4c2d88e2bbce8d1c8042bfbbad4407552b5acf72d9cadc38ca014553d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "woke" during his Thursday press conference? | Event: what-will-donald-trump-say-during-his-thursday-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or higher on February 24? | 68,206,381 | 68,352,966 |
194a10ac95b9a22e649b5ca7439472878a0a6cc5 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x0285195321da318806aedf94f16532901b945606bcc1b5ad6da5074dcfd84d09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 25°F or below on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.858108108108108... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 21? | 68,206,905 | 68,206,905 |
ff2a9ed1f32c18bebb9a2a31e111d1bed319c625 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xba0cf1d28de6453f3ed322e10da4632e30b950453aacd50af91c91a1fa222b18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 25°F or below on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8581081081081081
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 42°F or below on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-febr... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | 68,206,905 | 68,206,905 |
c9d03efbd705d862a5727e2cfcbde3f6596a1c74 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x15e558b67551e64419e56dffb02c393ad5437be73923ddbbf714f93844c0f5cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 42°F or below on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 24°F or below on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Choice... | yes | 0.719615 | trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49.5% or higher on February 28? | 68,206,914 | 68,627,835 |
fcba24a5d138621dd9a943afb90a9828caee7a0f | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x011892d762e147bf3b437c7958596b88326e8be6f34f7594af4c4205f395b9d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 24°F or below on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4082350017161185
2. Question: Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m? | Event: paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-bo... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? | 68,229,133 | 68,229,133 |
b2bcd6cc3792ab9f004981832fa1bbffef92773a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x203cd3f52d5be4e5023ead6c2521b7995642844900dbcfac55df0373902b22a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m? | Event: paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $21m? | Event: paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-box-of... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on February 21? | 68,229,133 | 68,229,133 |
57df4f936908d6d60c48a7ccf43f1cbdc8091bbe | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x69013d41521a6f12e06a012c4b04e8fcca6b99565f67dbbbdf9f39f3cadcaed3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $21m? | Event: paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Brutalist' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Event: how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Choice: y... | yes | 0.45454 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on February 22? | 68,229,133 | 68,229,133 |
2fd2aadbd076c925fbf7eacefd1c161a60dc7f10 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x7a59e26d2f1b69527708ff9e46096b2135089356f3d26e82894bfee0869c0397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Brutalist' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Event: how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Brutalist' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Event: how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-21 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 30°F or below on February 21? | 68,229,133 | 68,229,133 |
81c7e46ede289eff281218ca7de836349abdc1ca | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x7f777a965c763b2379a1412ee807c4a3e4d8047ff4e74066eb691e95d8f8e292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Brutalist' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Event: how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will 'The Brutalist' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Event: how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Choice: no... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 22? | 68,229,133 | 68,229,133 |
401e07d90fc50b8264d5d58d39c04e6e0790f02a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xd15ff50078abbed7cd571b70c638d94849eb107528ab1aa93b2d3afd5866c5f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Brutalist' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Event: how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21? | 68,229,133 | 68,229,133 |
cc50484031ed6e452e3e173055c0e23055368664 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x924bb9597bff7473b6030e04a54713d6db57031b7a47d6ecfcac44eefeb43800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | C... | no | 1 | trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28? | 68,229,826 | 68,229,826 |
ff50f35301c94796b1404d751c2007af33a84213 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb484265f8551cea9ea7f229868e74975ed1d7b4461930869b0f23916257b4e8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Cho... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-21 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 21? | 68,231,389 | 68,231,389 |
16b818b1309281117f94c0959afe48126c4574b3 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xcd3c4c6747c839f510c62406a707b8a4e207e11640409145aebb4ca64445e76e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 26-27°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Ch... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-21 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 21? | 68,231,389 | 68,231,389 |
ef578ce4e913c0387c8de1aa4b528e629981abf2 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe23556ae66d95540ff7e312cd5992ef27ed7a134f472e02d7d4053f976c75145 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 26-27°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | C... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 22? | 68,244,210 | 68,244,210 |
ce2ba633c55e83fdf43cc9d327f08665163499ce | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x64a124b0cbd10c22d03ac782e82fa21d76a4406372320ffe53ae4dfaa9c29f04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 28-29°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | C... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 22? | 68,267,367 | 68,267,367 |
ed83121416ca7b593c2b6b7b5a63fa0f16aba333 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xbccb97cce9e14fdcadf5ebbfed63b752eb6cb72e5d0c4ff6c26197942b703879 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 28-29°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Cho... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on February 22? | 68,267,367 | 68,267,367 |
ff23dae29c568758383cac946de0710206cd4fe4 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x381e611e08e47c28d3febfdcfa3e86ffd542768964d6341ea52c6b19008165d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22? | 68,274,430 | 68,274,430 |
f4050e365cada1cb6cafd98b4e6d6362b2098183 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x48fd1bd42529457a7e10ee9b3e6197721f09403161759cac35345ef2795ec6ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 22? | 68,274,430 | 68,274,430 |
6dc28897ba6cd844138b11cb2a5b11a7fc1e6f9d | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x9121e0293619c10cd18e4265fd31328087112a27afca72daab76063c9f9a67b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 36°F or higher on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on February 22? | 68,274,430 | 68,274,430 |
8b450b9cfad4b1179585afae705508ce1d78f3ee | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xebaa38d3e0e714f59e50096a9f4682a8266ee60307aed39898b691d3b2b5cf9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 36°F or higher on February 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9052609016647217
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-fe... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 23? | 68,280,484 | 68,280,484 |
09f610025fd24c750acd244d2e6e32d965426999 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x4ff875c4cbe15d53110231513792bda577329b39cd06321760af6d124da329a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 33°F or below on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Cho... | yes | 0.509082 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24? | 68,284,160 | 68,352,966 |
538aa010dbd8d2f5b09f1ca7b6684115f32cc56a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x647e22f09f136bf10a0b6b815a826debb3ac62ac728d2d71f61a331337803266 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 33°F or below on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Choice... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 24? | 68,305,479 | 68,305,479 |
7a3098790805dfc710c7f39075db49ad53b921b6 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xad27ddc4a1c00ec9278d28ea6b63f0a7953c064c080efcb6d8e0d572a980d93a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4545395040673171
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 25-26°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on February 23? | 68,305,479 | 68,305,479 |
7b7b2f1781454c46afa3043bc3745528de40b65a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb8f6912e165df2c7f14d7069900f374f8db3b21d00669e9d5bbfb0bb6122ce96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 25-26°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.963795425668974
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February 24? | 68,305,479 | 68,305,479 |
1706436cea508bc78cb40aecd0514d303ec83100 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xdf2ca262277fd66f36e112948086f870e07d57f0408dd1fca151376fdc6f87aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 0.694615 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on February 23? | 68,305,479 | 68,305,479 |
b40db9c171ce483f381c30216b9af38ea099f942 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x99146a52ffa1d82191515b799c634c8770aadce3800ec8abd206ba7173283116 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-februa... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 24? | 68,328,450 | 68,328,450 |
52bb3e5dd7495ae56183f85569eb8bb8771c3fc9 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x0776f956ac86e0a503ba7fe3831b43abdc119cab4c79bfc81766d682bd6ac000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7142857142857143
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or below on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lon... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Will Donald Trump sign less than 5 executive orders in March? | 68,344,915 | 68,344,915 |
ff8ac5672b5e499f30b76f96cc3dec3ebea183c8 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x176a93762f4a9b47ef6ce4ba55c7aac71d538c6c7fd600649b3c332551438f3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or below on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5766407288553212
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 38°F or below on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | 68,425,627 | 68,425,627 |
8cbe84a746429790db51c626169d30e0d3fa1a3e | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x9b76a85e9d161f6bc1d1cc8e2ab83c1c0643f8d24d544d65df3f771d51137dd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 38°F or below on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-starmer-presser-february-27 | Will Donald Trump say Ukraine 10+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27? | 68,446,441 | 68,446,441 |
ff84524975ce27e71f15bf9ec3b90dc01692ac53 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x85c80acf0f799292313efc6a705afa3044f72d88cc55f0a44dfb4eaaacdb56dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or higher on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-24 | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-zelenskyy-presser-on-friday1 | Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28? | 68,472,307 | 68,510,071 |
77fa6dd21fd06d2a7acc9041dfe593cdb9f42a97 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xf1ae6263c33910aec2296b163dcbdd1ae414ab4f253b70cffe76059762268b8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or higher on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Ch... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-zelenskyy-presser-on-friday1 | Will Donald Trump say "Horrible" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28? | 68,472,308 | 68,472,308 |
42d9a38eccd49bf7db177383d738c241a232fec9 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x421d2266210a77c92161118d75a6c1f37eeb9acddda24cdc4b3dd556d5997e5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | C... | no | 0.999378 | what-will-trump-say-during-zelenskyy-presser-on-friday1 | Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28? | 68,476,243 | 68,476,243 |
a0fa4455371eb0435caa5be65e03ba0f7562e3fd | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb472c7c5aaa18a76d8d17adeb37d82f6e60455939b51d915ac58761810e7bc7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49.5% or higher on February 28? | Event: trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 0.000068 | trump-meets-with-zelenskyy-in-march | Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? | 68,487,401 | 68,487,401 |
e4e67568f3309d21d5a2e220c725bbe13584ddeb | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xa486563b3f563b1d3e12350da71904fe2e87a05cbc37402844c56a58e5fc4345 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49.5% or higher on February 28? | Event: trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7196151100538731
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0 | georgescu-in-jail-before-romanian-election | Georgescu in jail before Romanian election? | 68,510,013 | 68,510,013 |
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