sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
062cf40be655c123d5255b76dfa05b8a5ebdd1e1 | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x46227195d4e74139e1ec31618b798cab9950f490c15e5524d04d5079047edbdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14?
Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14
Predict the user's choice and c... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | 77,699,365 | 77,699,365 |
35eb87078d108b493d04506a0c4a8568a17ce55e | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0xbb1cc5df468cab2995855940ed188e28d7177f2d3c9ebe8f017c6d5506c5f0b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target mark... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on October 14? | 77,699,365 | 77,699,365 |
492fe825a5e9ee3a30ee42cd06fd07ffe08f70ac | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x256a3fdebd97907783d37d40c1fac9816086515d6ad3d1352f027fdaafe25ccc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 15? | 77,741,295 | 77,741,295 |
c67bf08f4f4a31c3ac4020c6231d8fa03363bc8e | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x63aea8c53214f5f8d37a114dbbea74e8c7280fab3548662cb6e7e4c9e56ca6ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,900 on October 15? | 77,741,295 | 77,741,295 |
66619f3df69e965024397220fb2e53fcaeba187d | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0xf5689ae62b9e4e4ad619bae4cd8385f077e297d885f5e35dc780ae91daf339db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 0.001306 | ethereum-price-on-october-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 16? | 77,763,052 | 77,763,052 |
2d0d0a05f114cccc703d8f0e683c78b7fc314133 | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x8bb23342164aa36e87d9d1c8849d54cff1c3808bc75bc0cc157c99ffa7398805 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,800 on October 16? | 77,786,992 | 77,786,992 |
1a1e5dc62f1e0d4bdc4efc8ab7a37ac52e86cdfc | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0xc5b95697da3965318ab80a66ee74687905cce9de43d4f042a75e700804378688 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on October 16? | 77,786,992 | 77,786,992 |
1cb27bb3e16b8ac9e13059c2f5d9ce11d31075ac | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x6b77e2853720428d1975794093e856fb3e5845924782611968cb31e48ca3401d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-17 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,600 on October 17? | 77,832,865 | 77,832,865 |
7b6960d4da8bf235a810dc1309df613ba8556b40 | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0xb436d15810248c725ffd59fa9565124fcbbad9036aa5398bdd8ac778219cdc4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,300 on October 18? | 77,873,245 | 77,873,245 |
ae266d74a7551c16f8f7b95ef9d27855c63e081d | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0xbbe5d8e3446e55d11154868efd3969e950ad9763e5068aed1cec1a0001efcaf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120,000 on October 18? | 77,873,245 | 77,873,245 |
c3244f5d2e730e8754a25193a1b9344a3f16532f | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0xefe69dc26cde765df18b13563e0a4bfbad265a2a701444c22623b3d629f28207 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,400 on October 18? | 77,873,245 | 77,873,245 |
f51f459039fdb8291f618ee320a78d56e7a98921 | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x1df9bdeda038f5ec1d572b81d43a5cdcde2b4c5022e7a6dc935461224b6530a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-19 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $240 on October 19? | 77,920,606 | 77,920,606 |
d6d426f65576e025165d555d132eec7733f3bc6b | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x1ef9a8fb74ad250e2711c3beece607a1cc319c424dce56dcb0005a12d856eb66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-19 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 19? | 77,920,606 | 77,920,606 |
b363523de38dcb38a9618a7c7d8ee0226547e770 | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x8b39d0ca0da4fefa66f5937b8465cf1b944be339c8b5929e75f01020e13592c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-december-3 | Will the price of Solana be less than $90 on December 3? | 79,862,266 | 79,862,266 |
2a15baa00d5c99452542c08d26a2da2bbb85c946 | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0xf55ce1493b582ccbfc3ce15f9341dce63ccb3ff26881524ebe833515a5dcc7e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-december-3 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on December 3? | 79,862,266 | 79,862,266 |
b2286fb3d0a4557440e6905043b1bab6c7c93eaf | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x2aaa97194f44bb0fc6c9d9e97fa71273bbda7027abc4e68704c3dfc4caecf71b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-december-4 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 4? | 79,909,153 | 79,909,153 |
aca1e8f2485a29e7745339c5f7f17aee8c51d22e | 0x2d75c84f3d662825277d10d263ff4637b250e38b | 0x2cc11ff474023031faeff5b5da12e87e68c9c993f6c3bb42b9f2a128b963e63a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,100 on October 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 14? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-december-4 | Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on December 4? | 79,909,153 | 79,909,153 |
a9ae8eb1fda348c7d328745d2aaccc27c990d689 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x444ddf4d35e67e6b1c97ad264c018ff1c0d73ea0702773697d1beca4fb3f484f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08?
Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | 68,887,307 | 68,887,307 |
8e961bf05584c07fc11ae289382cfd25609b0449 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xcaba2507c8ce55330e8069c0f7631e56909ef5c9ac06a3e561ab615115c992d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08?
Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | 68,887,307 | 68,887,307 |
ae5edba001ad83ea98984527df194b2f951a8252 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x50c086c44c5799611f617c1b2ca46d3f9d0bf80183c49f4ca5268304da62ff59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15?
Event: epl... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-not-2025-03-15 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | 69,204,716 | 69,204,716 |
de9b2e0f2ddc3cd840f5bbb3ef5f31c6d606d63a | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x9206e002f8eab0af66b507998149415f0de8e3d4b3e64a0de2e93fa4fb1f1814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | epl-che-tot-2025-04-03 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-04-03? | 69,961,179 | 69,961,179 |
792344ad40438dde81579769786efbf09daa4792 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x58470865b65bd361cca1a51118646879034cafcf799bcb7c4efcbb751200b203 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-sou-2025-04-06 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-06? | 70,032,215 | 70,032,215 |
3424c3cafac323ccbf763ef9444ad56177edb784 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xa58a59e6ca3fe27c2a509594c9864bf56f938718ff593f1e49bb819c809379d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-liv-2025-04-06 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06? | 70,032,215 | 70,032,215 |
cd7b59e1444c3f2d1b4ff06f7074c17ab002ab94 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x7bea701c4e4fe2cc6a58fdf12872de78ed50e2afe376aa3f8bcc19ba6ddb6442 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-ars-2025-04-20 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-20? | 70,662,430 | 70,662,430 |
bea4b1712b6774462bb30c42db9f3a6dbc4bfa6f | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x88794d6920186eaa5a50de4758c9a5be9483660d17bf82d29037d05086d82f09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? | 71,274,866 | 71,274,866 |
8db04c9a4740250409d8b310750d0248e657c1c4 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xdfdb6a6877a5e3e50f2bfd358ad94a7f7e994b45657a3bb0e308c6eb70aa2a16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | fa-cup-champion | Will Manchester City win the 2024-25 FA Cup? | 71,674,040 | 71,674,040 |
b7b3d2a4f2315825a9089091aae2cbbc17e614be | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x3544c90850e05561efd32db7fa1bb164f706bffdc07db71d9bf8cb57fe90b31e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-21? | 72,224,914 | 72,224,914 |
80250cd261268302ac0ce200cad9104b7e201c9b | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x6cf8b2ebe77711ab5c32fac330b8d493640cf25d278fa98bf65ddcfcb891171e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,224,920 | 72,224,920 |
71c7b0188638fa3e9926086a7638feb2397b6634 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xf999ea22dd5db9832f79cd9e51c1bbd1167932c1ec6471ccb04bfed10b8b6020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | nhl-western-conference-champion | Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? | 72,224,946 | 72,224,946 |
05a3601b212f155648b7f6298f97e562b868a247 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xb6a4eb2a74d8a280d794c9dd857f80cbe112b3e3e10d5d41df75d038b4f783a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-france | Will France beat Germany? | 72,563,686 | 72,563,686 |
fa95ea761b6a0f3e6df462debcfaf7aeebf7cf46 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xc35632edf91069a4ff6302f83d8bd871d589077f37bab921ef743278cc085751 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-winner | Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? | 72,563,692 | 72,563,692 |
53acf7079c70063c684420dfccef614679e8160f | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xf846790307fe470255ec87de7e087d18c4f4ecea5e8df9d0182f914536b3a1b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Portugal beat Spain? | 72,563,743 | 72,563,743 |
85ea4eb94b8b5851b0b3060de6c1d4f431c0a96c | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xccf60f7f50863bf2900b2cf4196dd77fab28df7ddeb3bbf8e07ae477de2fb3fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,228,658 | 73,228,658 |
886c9aab1af5204ce1fa2ec67fe14bd9f25b2639 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x6edc6c77c16ef3ba1bcd646159f12f8b8a39528e500dcff95b9220ccfbb75141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,415,084 | 73,415,084 |
96f730ed06f5b65eb3603b992fd63134e84e8dfb | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xae1dd89564538fb3ba922e074b88003adfd371eb5f0f2e322b85f59778d607be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-g-winner-715 | Will Manchester City win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,415,084 | 73,415,084 |
d8e7096311767c2c6b6563c2014cf8c124d24659 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xb372aacbb360873391c3961bc4a4b45920aa7100c9f09a86043849da8e3c568d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | fl1-nan-psg-2025-08-17 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-17? | 75,553,070 | 75,553,070 |
361ed8caa785c1eed2d90e13031d7b1b10674106 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x3a07b2b0b026a1d5de566924f65a552441578b34303448366c0527e7cb236da9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-lee-2025-08-23 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-23? | 75,588,266 | 75,588,266 |
3e72b858cd1813b7239a92b0d2799bf9cf72bb71 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xea0c5367499cecb3057c1423f26ce93d74c9aa64106462b6e672f98bbb6bf4b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-rea-2025-08-24 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24? | 75,729,831 | 75,729,831 |
19f4165388e962cd0b4edc5cf2ad82d97e8d272d | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x97e0140353a3441e025ded8a6b70a1072e89b8d9a1f8cc07a24e21e7d01f56fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | bun-aug-bay-2025-08-30 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-30? | 75,884,960 | 75,884,960 |
ff20d0adcc1b8a1954b68788fddc0bfece60a455 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0x5d56e64fed8cb2704f8ed5b1d257a0e23755064b77ccc05048c29fa6a844c003 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | 76,153,943 | 76,153,943 |
36278342028eaf2c10e099313d6fbd39b1ec22b9 | 0x2da76c0863b22ad8b231d95a74a22da32846b914 | 0xcddc4839d7f41cd37d0aaf0a4b8336178ae799b9d166f25fe0c35f4a61682d8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-ips-not-20... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 76,153,953 | 76,153,953 |
1efdac02b5ddcaa820dc37f4e2c3e9874f1dc942 | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0xe1f774801279ffe5c97017ccd363177a41ff6f40086f8d580a054283249c6fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev?
Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | 62,291,643 | 62,291,643 |
3f226207e52464e521a342249325469c63b5ab7d | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0xd847e371920c5197c5ad4b49d07c2ca17f078fbe5bc915c8627be9a9a63f7117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20?
Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | 63,346,344 | 63,346,344 |
fe7e0457d47a5b269193673f976938cab91d766f | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0xf8d61c3af6262c4797b81006d9284bc4f7ae72a6448634051629cd1b0b9e5e2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig?
Event: ucl-rb-leipzi... | yes | 1 | ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | 63,427,951 | 63,427,951 |
8e352df8d2d044a7b33ffb837eeaa893c610ab1d | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0x42e9d7194aeff245c472dc9c6cd77596540e366e1530aa2c14039f0ee1853c66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | europa-league-twente-vs-lazio | Will Lazio beat Twente? | 63,588,272 | 63,588,272 |
84ab9c4618668a6bf456972a2a088200c3465222 | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0x741173ad41407bd18f53c071198d17b99eb75fe5d8a116d53630911c022a1362 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | 66,303,845 | 66,303,845 |
dce8e70194619e2e885470249e3821c7fc36fde5 | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0xac298790a14bd2bdf34e100cd933a00e1f0adbb7d23dc65b430879f699e36e71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | epl-newcastle-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Newcastle? | 66,303,845 | 66,303,845 |
fcf9b5cc0e30fdcaceda7acb68935d0bf78f46dc | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0xcef494589678983304cfac2034a7df02c9fcef0d560582b8e76c01748a8c32e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04? | 66,303,845 | 66,303,845 |
0a51c8771a0c398b9b48d742ae073e1a8ab2937e | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0x651c35b6bb1e812e616b8d286f57b09efd6e5b125dda48740f9172a41c5254d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | 66,335,725 | 66,335,725 |
25ea9897985a60c43b79d8de96523d8bfe6cca57 | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0xc0122a4c969b1644f684d938977eeb29f4afdec91b3edff934a068f2382c0858 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? | 66,335,725 | 66,335,725 |
c7c61407432a9365c70cdba0ee669b801aa9f955 | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | no | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 79,789,835 | 79,789,835 |
1cdcaf5fac31ece5044122056f0330794ca6391e | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0x230928508f5d9277227e83cfddbacc6537d7ae7d10f1b614baaa7b4f6255c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | ucl-olm1-new-2025-11-25 | Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,789,835 | 79,789,835 |
a4dbf56fc28b5063fc96ceeb1d76a2342606fa69 | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0x60a006d0360545ce1f132407bef7e9d25a8b9b785908afc1818d736ef13b352e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | ucl-cfc-fcb1-2025-11-25 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? | 79,789,835 | 79,789,835 |
61ed1c27bba5e2177d14207046b40d35299822e9 | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0x88495bc7b3b737c4535892bb66428f461984570794f6e15d01c935cac93f30b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? | 79,789,835 | 79,789,835 |
85e5150ea24071dc267d6856dd8d29a1d288014e | 0x2dceab7f468dbbd2e0514c8ebc9add3017af5e09 | 0x0eb64f96119793960339f7b86d0b1500432206173f34e74f0d63b252e5ff188f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazio beat Dynamo Kiev? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kiev-vs-lazio | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverp... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | 79,789,837 | 79,789,837 |
3f93255bc2e5094992082a88f0758ddf0365fb14 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x0c1d0f22573f2739913c047fd3f470d3c1242ac411aac6cd5f409eb46c96e996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Rangers vs. Kraken
Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | kraken | 0 | nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Rangers vs. Kraken | 78,456,379 | 78,481,343 |
f847e13cd0085ff8547f2b8eb66d44be87f27c81 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0xc4d6e0594c08df4b1722791ea7151d79300bf81591595908b5926bfcf72add1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets
Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rational... | mavericks | 0 | nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Mavericks vs. Rockets | 78,516,972 | 78,553,858 |
11df32e390fb5aede9dc4b76e52ac4111a3060a9 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0xa59ea6ba99d4e3b15790140fdff2dc844d394dc3fd13d6e3649c6c65afecc9a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Canucks vs. Predators
Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03
Predict the user's choi... | canucks | 0 | nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Canucks vs. Predators | 78,545,250 | 78,545,250 |
33db0aaad585de2969b80bce894064d98def4265 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x3c99f768b44e57614202c8505be1ecef0cfd5bf42414c70ba8579dfc9ca1d9c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | blues | 0 | nhl-edm-stl-2025-11-03 | Oilers vs. Blues | 78,551,113 | 78,551,113 |
1be0ad4eb455c961240b745a4b1f369e339215bb | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x2ca71bac63ed24081f0109a3f43fcc25c92322744a75921efcdb984e1ad4de50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | hornets | 0 | nba-cha-nop-2025-11-05 | Hornets vs. Pelicans | 78,583,014 | 78,608,622 |
0a823586cc924c5c6db124ed576e26b30653b81a | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x96e8a4202fc012451a636bcdea518f85a395d7c9e0c1228777a3189ba509a6de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-tor-2025-11-05 | Bucks vs. Raptors | 78,595,824 | 78,597,243 |
6ddc117db54688cd2101a479581d393980dbd8bd | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0xbb66d6c483eaa4847a8ae37871281207fe95d0bed75fdc0ed39574f44994b9bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | sabres | 0 | nhl-utah-buf-2025-11-04 | Utah vs. Sabres | 78,596,708 | 78,596,708 |
cfd9c1d8e8686bff1d8360255ab1350af7f31966 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x193d02278cbd591bc736f852392d11b25ef9f21d6bde78c3a1571fdb779c5abe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | 76ers | 0 | nba-phi-chi-2025-11-05 | 76ers vs. Bulls | 78,596,822 | 78,608,622 |
ca53f959bdf94380a6f06a706dc6e98ccf6732b8 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x9160bb6e4c868fe4f75531126aa444fa50eb324215678ec9e0c3c27c08ecf458 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | oilers | 0 | nhl-edm-dal-2025-11-04 | Oilers vs. Stars | 78,599,455 | 78,609,826 |
5473b93607a247cb8d09a57ecaa5a0495a08ea26 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0xbcf2fe95722034570ce61e6a0dcb3a825605bca1027b44479369beb205542f11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | maple leafs | 0 | nhl-utah-tor-2025-11-05 | Utah vs. Maple Leafs | 78,640,332 | 78,640,332 |
1d4f76e8f97c1be8b182d589beeb0306aa48f11c | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x9fcbd3551bc2ba7a2726153702762641890c442fb761c5eae9944ec4acd475f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | lakers | 0 | nba-sas-lal-2025-11-06 | Spurs vs. Lakers | 78,641,821 | 78,656,361 |
3df80790948a333fd1d7f07c3a04df2d34faa9d2 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x37c3aed768e3d91a53f216aea894cd4dec7c48af24064db0bf39f65ab2c3e691 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | blackhawks | 0 | nhl-chi-van-2025-11-05 | Blackhawks vs. Canucks | 78,646,105 | 78,646,105 |
43dc04c0e55e398c2145677e3d46d25eb51eadc0 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x5c3533897aabd9d2ac173cfed039509a89fb8ba2d461abb12741db305e07058b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | rockets | 0 | nba-hou-sas-2025-11-08 | Rockets vs. Spurs | 78,692,754 | 78,694,831 |
205801174c469262a730c68972c922b75a80a547 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0xf30fe69f81879fda77f1bc7ec8bcc811a6f27fd2017d7068c5dd361d50ebf28b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | celtics | 0 | nba-bos-orl-2025-11-08 | Celtics vs. Magic | 78,695,543 | 78,736,201 |
9501e3421548ceafcf4f39eec539231b79c5fc26 | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0x351993b29579e287a779127d94d83b7f5cffe5b715f74e2c58c12ff19c0ad018 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | northwestern | 0 | cfb-nw-usc-2025-11-07 | Northwestern vs. USC | 78,712,075 | 78,741,612 |
dbee390913ef2b5c7de2de5ed9615b6d6afb223e | 0x2dd5fed497944a5ad70787df99b852328d6c1306 | 0xc0e3bf1060861398acff99adcbfac97773a6afa505099b36b186ddf41f2079f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Kraken | Event: nhl-nyr-sea-2025-11-01 | Choice: kraken | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Rockets | Event: nba-dal-hou-2025-11-04 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Canucks vs. Predators | Event: nhl-van-nsh-2025-11-03 | Choice: canucks | Confidence: 0.0... | houston | 0 | cfb-hou-ucf-2025-11-07 | Houston vs. UCF | 78,720,641 | 78,739,756 |
806c44ae1e056fad6f83223cf330305a6bf1d826 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0xdd0c4a2c0dc2323a03096b0da84372ea8502b0f3bbfade6a5eba32ed76308b8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series?
Event: world-series-champion-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | 76,153,479 | 76,153,479 |
8c07dcd5351e2c4ae92386aaede26c2a07fc7d9c | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x8e7409627b88e0e5745859ccfef3a7d75f57c95b639650c7b5340865ad5ca70c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Event: f1-drivers-champion
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Out... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion | Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | 77,912,996 | 77,912,996 |
ecb363273881913dbd2fda77ca347b8d9dd72f0c | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x04161945a9f14b13600b827dec5b92b95936e7bd7c8d9481abc613355cc4fca1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Sauber finish fou... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-4th-place | Will Sauber finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
bae62cae712cfac865ccff5a992227855249627f | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x07d9e4629403bc50a9f8b9b8a28a0baba3c48b01757af7994d23bfb6fa9ce48e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-4th-place | Will Haas finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
5c15b9479548e3b043c847cda0a96e52fae8537d | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x2f1cbccd21c6b617952e6679f89aac39e5f4490506ac9a71b513bb0e6162c4f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-2nd-place | Will Sauber finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
6adfbe6acabd06563ea6de2858990ee2876f3912 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x44f380ed619ad2f56f7772f28560eb5f5b35a191d1f5fdd867c0f1685d7096ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-2nd-place | Will Racing Bulls finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
a87589dc858beea6e85085a2e406f15ae8fc8871 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x872913b920fa873efecb0438e09c9d89ac0fde7bf621a404cf4469f6ca7c842c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-4th-place | Will Racing Bulls finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
ff0d7584632850b8616f70396d37429820e2392c | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0xb05af8e4617693b64fbc696725403dd2dc55b04ace66a7c1176a2cd5ab127711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-2nd-place | Will Haas finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
c929443f43e26cbdfec9658db5538ebd2222cef6 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0xbac505703ad54533cd741e410f2641327db7a89928ac21f507d404daf45b4c31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-2nd-place | Will Aston Martin finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
913e59f38cf19047a9b3489c0c38bf47463ff333 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0xc852662348d3098376fb841a159c6e1c86bd481068610d2a8792f1ece93852a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-3rd-place | Will Alpine finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
010a7a82785f6ca50027d3e38e38702e7fe733b7 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0xd9fc9fcd8809ad82ca77e76857056517a59cf3a31663b6f7709c07ca7c795417 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-3rd-place | Will Haas finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
f7a5a9c840c1a0b4d1243303df4b10629f57b525 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0xff1ff82a46ee1e6c7737c1147298e71b254103f79ab7807f3e7850b1c3326efb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-3rd-place | Will Racing Bulls finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,535 | 77,917,535 |
93c4094845101818dd222a03942892e1453085b7 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x32ae3a000bad30ddc4e13ab95ae773f2ceb75f0110d257206d3588871ddb9035 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-3rd-place | Will Sauber finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,536 | 77,917,536 |
06152fc2dbfdea9f623f55af028aba1e9f217b95 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x518e91dd55589d6c94bf286119743e261181e265e6ac9ba2f98d5c92b148f9f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-4th-place | Will Aston Martin finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,536 | 77,917,536 |
503b089b13dc7b1be87438641b4c914d02e6f8f6 | 0x2e3ea056400d81c42e2ce26ef25fda4ec5caabea | 0x6bc8ea4bec285887d1e0741adbb89e65d637c1afe9344f2d5c402c62b66bf778 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Event: f1-drivers-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sauber finish fourth in the 20... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-3rd-place | Will Aston Martin finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | 77,917,536 | 77,917,536 |
78e1b9680241fb2d0c9cc54fda64d04da7fbe7e7 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x1db3a4050719a1adc54a0eb696870ae6a7199172f7e2cfd30271e28b9ee84f06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet
Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | moutet | 1 | mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | 73,361,541 | 73,361,541 |
edc94735f8575f63e2f9807e5a4c87c731b21877 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x814e71c2b39d726d4641fad1148ff1877f45cf3f63094bdba6f561bcf7f13fb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28?
Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | XRP Up or Down on June 28? | 73,361,541 | 73,361,541 |
25075f875d432f757f2f0612e5d18cd51cdeea5e | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x8932fad37269ab6cd886d2cc65eb29d318419344e553ddb209b210e2f1467fd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Score... | yes | 1 | palmeiras-vs-botafogo-3-goals-scored | Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | 73,361,541 | 73,361,541 |
0f64874f1b4712dab63ebda14c542e97b68b00f0 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x9f1b9012476e01a2be352b06888cfa3ab2846ca14fee45c10f55cbed08684d4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | michelsen | 1 | mallorca-championships-michelsen-vs-bautista-agut | Mallorca Championships: Michelsen vs. Bautista Agut | 73,361,541 | 73,361,541 |
1528aaae6f78e5cc402e7c419683f05d25df0e37 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf60dc285af4d1148f7e38a1968a22c2a7530a0b8d8c4ee7d050a28a286548a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | up | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-27 | Solana Up or Down on June 27? | 73,361,541 | 73,361,541 |
1a51dff9337ffdf3d7ce185c57b684d4e8ffa6ce | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x059ce722b7485758111d584156d0eb3411a8e1465a4664e5939f46a1ae21c882 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Kon Knueppel be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,543 | 73,361,543 |
2f79b76bd6252cd379ab13d9449361906075573a | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf86c558a76e1c9acc61ee5462438d1def1d164f9e9878a0f83e02761fde602e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 0.738758 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Ace Bailey be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,543 | 73,361,543 |
cb04c29e54420a95d0b610bc72efc654a9f2d0b1 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x2b32cd1a4148c26e7873cc10eb91019084e6219ed7e3695188ce25ad455d2aed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will VJ Edgecombe be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,544 | 73,361,544 |
e5de231c676017b911dc1e5b356b978ee7a734ba | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x3831eeeafb4dc79013e34203443cbdf4695340cab631521804ccdffe56fb7af4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Khaman Maluach be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,544 | 73,361,544 |
090b92c6809675f9d8cdae9dc79591f3a0fa931f | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x7f2fd7b903ddc94008ace52f8a9f589839f1c0d2065db187ac895bf1144bb071 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Dylan Harper be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,544 | 73,361,544 |
7d13783c698c55000ef6024593de885a8369fb95 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x88cf7cf59bf663ec043847f12729dde4168aaf5ee9b40af713a46e888218c633 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Jeremiah Fears be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,544 | 73,361,544 |
75270fdd56a549039525533837c2faf88f13eb60 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xbdda1a968f916d32ac8ed929fe81b72f90ddbdcdf576af44a18a56df2e002a44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Collin Murray-Boyles be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,544 | 73,361,544 |
d55c63f68b4047bf430db0b5615abaa1fb47c9ee | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xc46c75896146dd7617c0671b375615a979ca1b094d34e142b04f1c481fa45cfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Tre Johnson be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,544 | 73,361,544 |
d508c28ae377d0382e19c9ad3b7f0cd90e00774f | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x40ccc3641b4cb59ee97aff4f80350e4841bf5496ebe4de03aa9a95f6f3c803a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Derik Queen be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,545 | 73,361,545 |
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