sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06ea5f73c11e66f2b9b8a2f658f9d585870da16d | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x56d86f5d1a55ea6f0c57df69dc2f5d8467f2fdd0cfa42f86ee7073f86a294a18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Jase Richardson be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,545 | 73,361,545 |
a217f6e7150921c89551703721e898c9b9563053 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xbac160dc6c1009e3dbd72a7a70abb6445991d418b2a79c27b4f406bedbcba7c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Carter Bryant be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,545 | 73,361,545 |
7568c0d065d3c590fc6f4862ae9effc5a125f480 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf46e1244390145ecaa25de0f701ca5d9458753d746eaecd744579ec9ceae8fc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Will Kasparas Jakucionis be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | 73,361,545 | 73,361,545 |
b6e29e4d5121f565c739d523617778a4bfb84bb5 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x90bcc17bc877738cda73ba464388425c2c24c059dfcb273fc3ebab7728735ac7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 0.620285 | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-suriname-government | Will the next government of Suriname be VHP/ABOP? | 73,398,451 | 73,398,451 |
d834a5ac3e7a05009a2a17ec7a550df1188f4771 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x56629a9e321bc5116c67b90e5fe683403b52ad05b3ff0a07473ab3305f66161a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | no | 0.021728 | will-black-sea-ceasefire-go-into-effect-before-july | Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before July? | 73,398,451 | 73,526,209 |
4d86370f33d3f420660be9af91909adc6fe3a207 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x98e7a04236e92ccc0fc5a31ed2e66f9792e6c16d4be44b2ae2a9c5b4ddb52541 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 0.564755 | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-suriname-government | Will the next government of Suriname be something else? | 73,398,451 | 73,526,226 |
89d534ed808016fa659b850855ee779e9b0aa8f6 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x172e6abc5df10035a6416080d6d5a5c87c07d0ec299d1d82756aa71b59407f22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 0.017197 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | 73,398,451 | 73,561,381 |
69151527a7d6bc081992c89235eb2077abd027cf | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x2484da0aab8e0047c584bd69e48f5bc4c93347502fa673b4651b3e66c1dce90c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | 73,398,451 | 73,561,381 |
45834ef8fc11e9488104691965b9aa13121a5990 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x6236a2dbdb5eb6e7a5d4577f02677a11c3f3067e6aa341ba367bfb64340a53c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 0.00372 | will-the-next-james-bond-be-british | Will the next James Bond be British? | 73,398,451 | 73,726,478 |
959513597582a0a26b297e7c88ed07d7c09b6257 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x7eb32e53e1e624187306af79cd2db0139dba53434e723894477d6ec9630114b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | no | 0.753987 | houthi-strike-on-israel-before-august | Houthi strike on Israel before August? | 73,398,451 | 74,949,508 |
c320bf51365b6ced95609c92b1b67dcaf880fa84 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x80f3bb507bc7da89c5da27933a089b2a580b701e01577e476d297f9745b60fa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 0.071607 | 1350-measles-cases-in-us-before-august | 1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August? | 73,398,451 | 74,949,508 |
85a1840f700e337208fbf0fc599bba4ca90d5065 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | no | 1 | will-2025-be-the-hottest-year-on-record | Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | 73,398,451 | 75,349,962 |
955f5809c5cedc5527301847acb6503dd9aa371d | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 0.634589 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | 73,398,451 | 79,973,751 |
e02bab65c87efc45b9583903f9049e5ecf4a47f4 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x034c0bf1ab76f254f2df55fb88ccb80ac6a56e22c2dcd8d1fe530a12cd37840f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on July 1? | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
8329251468fd1e99f8a4041e99ab1c32077c78e2 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x4733822fc8d8c074ce94f640c37a7ca398b0e1f652439bd9206fc6a08a23bf50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on July 1? | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
f19fee8e40a1cd2eb47b0256e90d80f5235ac80d | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x488356ad1e46c748aa2966fa95339c16b542aedec7f094dca431b8d2c495971d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | mochizuki | 1 | wimbledon-mochizuki-vs-khachanov | Wimbledon: Mochizuki vs. Khachanov | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
965d628198a684650dcbd85ad2ffa27c598e16ec | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x54c2f8a4e6ceef6f2e65d2804fff37862b3afb1fb06b70d8d5c83e63f51f9c0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet | Event: mallorca-championships-tien-vs-moutet | Choice: moutet | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: p... | no | 0.847707 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on July 1? | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
eda2499e8b20bc5d094cf870f8bca490c7cce15a | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x7bf2d9d58812b6442025072a87cd94756c62c5938fd112000a72ec6e58013347 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 28? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: palmeiras-vs-botafogo-3-goals-scored | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Mallorca Championships: Michelsen vs. Bautista Agut | E... | no | 0 | diddy-convicted-of-a-felony | Diddy convicted of a felony? | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
063f79ba0d28a2eaee0e9e02945a0672594b2c7a | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x801bf4827389c582eb9d4efd69122f43f291c92e284a700469159127367f3ebf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: palmeiras-vs-botafogo-3-goals-scored | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mallorca Championships: Michelsen vs. Bautista Agut | Event: mallorca-championships-michelsen-vs-bautista-agut | Choice: michelsen | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-1 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
2fb0b862bfd148added0c4dfa909b630418b7bc6 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xb4e0938f339bc8a8ea7d5b130263039ddfa105d73f9987aa055006613aa186f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mallorca Championships: Michelsen vs. Bautista Agut | Event: mallorca-championships-michelsen-vs-bautista-agut | Choice: michelsen | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 27? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-27 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kon Knueppel b... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 1? | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
09d091d77447d4c32faa4b11512185936fad740f | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xe77f674a804d3057659cf7998be4246e3e67c86763ca478712fd15a677344c2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 27? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-27 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kon Knueppel be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ace Bailey be the fourth pick of the 2... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on July 1? | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
d65844ddad17e52ff06e10d48cf93874a783a778 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf65a71e4aab28e1d4bb0abcb2cdf7cdfbebabbe42310596018658d76bbb9c414 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kon Knueppel be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ace Bailey be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7387580299785867
3. Question: Will... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7AM ET | 73,526,209 | 73,526,209 |
f7a0d0b0cd8e515ed6c230423da74ba40f131f3a | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x9418d0a32ae29c8f6cedc9c4b686ce579c7ad1e536e447b85e29f00152872a7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ace Bailey be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7387580299785867
2. Question: Will VJ Edgecombe be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | will-erdogan-repeal-presidential-term-limits | Will Erdogan repeal presidential term limits? | 73,526,226 | 73,526,226 |
c424495ab04f1d02c4f2b7b4ef4f63ff035be846 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x8ed980ae5b48da84e49c09cf67b6ecff32b36f7fc0f88651127edfd438962d2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VJ Edgecombe be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Khaman Maluach be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dylan Harp... | yes | 1 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%? | 73,526,226 | 73,561,382 |
f8367e13b27ccd177a06eb6d248cf60a7b944158 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x49f25695e2d648c048fded348c6a104b6f1de1b31cffca6cdad32e9f0863daf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Khaman Maluach be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dylan Harper be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jeremiah F... | no | 0 | how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? | 73,526,226 | 73,561,400 |
f8eec941e48726382f9b56e8fca92698a3475637 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dylan Harper be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Collin Mur... | yes | 0.485134 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | 73,526,226 | 73,561,400 |
3de1361dab8937570a9aea508c21490a8a67e8a1 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xa4ef94f98921c5c840a5e58400accc3eaba3e80f23fd115494e2436d87bd251a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeremiah Fears be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Collin Murray-Boyles be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tr... | yes | 0.378076 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will Mercedes have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,526,226 | 73,726,458 |
c2b807863cbdab6009c67bb5f1a26416c28bdc0e | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x2401dd16e4b9399e6f60166d104aaac962c05ff403980a2f0da5354ccd8bbc25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Collin Murray-Boyles be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tre Johnson be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Derik... | no | 0 | will-elon-musk-unfollow-donald-trump-before-august | Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? | 73,526,226 | 73,832,679 |
f72bd83ba2fe7bb34cc6bdb8ed75f031571c653b | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x32b61d08c9e5552a7ba2e4c367ef84fbf3a79accbe3e194a1b0c98230ea6318a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tre Johnson be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Derik Queen be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jase Richardso... | no | 0.099099 | earthquake-7pt0-or-above-before-august | Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? | 73,526,226 | 74,263,171 |
1b49a2ffe1bd6d0bd5b37182af1ef8625af720bc | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x6d6d036a3218319ae654d7b74b245d548295316e010ef301aa8b1ac7af802f92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Derik Queen be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jase Richardson be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carter Bry... | yes | 0.078438 | major-crypto-exchange-hack-in-2025 | Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025? | 73,526,226 | 78,834,553 |
443a8be0c6380da954a5ed4d79c2380c9aab0720 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x01d5f475cb30704216ae9906d369c0b2991cafec882ab4888a66ff11eb03e569 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jase Richardson be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carter Bryant be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kasparas... | yes | 0.456962 | will-trump-remove-jerome-powell | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | 73,526,226 | 79,973,751 |
8abbae11d241e4ef930c748f58f491e14a660e53 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x3cfd3f59da7314cb63954929dc93cb48777e4ce73487aaca21bc10130b53e60a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carter Bryant be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kasparas Jakucionis be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 0.582803 | bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | 73,561,381 | 73,561,381 |
d78614d46fa94cc045399dc32aafbcb0e8c23d5a | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x418ba4a9a0b1f07b810de272b24c642ef69cd3f2677ed06b75dd2078880902a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kasparas Jakucionis be the fourth pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? | Event: 2025-nba-draft-4th-pick | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next government of Suriname be VHP/ABOP? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-suriname-government | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6202... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | 73,561,381 | 73,561,381 |
4412fbd4e9cf0f1d352e4b3578663c6b8644a106 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x33aed15046b93c73d17f34d1962815ef226d1c7759aa5c0917af8cc5211dd678 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next government of Suriname be VHP/ABOP? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-suriname-government | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6202847942110161
2. Question: Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before July? | Event: will-black-sea-ceasefire-go-into-effect-before-july | Cho... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | 73,561,382 | 73,561,382 |
264bc748acdee912d38ad9edb0be669738b018e3 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x813917fd5678498d2c73106d5c625b8f13fea87d675699a5de65ab7c2accfa2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before July? | Event: will-black-sea-ceasefire-go-into-effect-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02172813026358793
2. Question: Will the next government of Suriname be something else? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-suriname-government... | no | 0.809583 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | 73,561,382 | 73,561,382 |
63bcce80dd614af88c0cacf32711a4f47ca570ff | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xbb6335121fea76e1fcfba4f6caa68d447b399615dcea01901d4bca9a27cb6ecd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next government of Suriname be something else? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-suriname-government | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5647551901857368
2. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01719... | yes | 1 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%? | 73,561,382 | 73,561,382 |
f2ec59bde8a8aa8bc6baf8d50cb66aa953b41aba | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xe076775db611f7251355b36a64512233c8c756ce3a22ef8cc2ecda4be6fa4c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01719668602957035
2. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next James Bond be Bri... | yes | 0.99944 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | 73,561,382 | 73,561,382 |
3792f1106ebcb204fe5889ddecad07c93e8d68da | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x279fecf9685ea9871f1415ef469a98e2abb8599caceb2b95ba9cc8ac4f698268 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next James Bond be British? | Event: will-the-next-james-bond-be-british | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0037196037285748057
3. Question: Houthi strike on Israel b... | no | 0.991133 | bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | 73,561,400 | 73,656,056 |
71ea0420bde4a96b4ee58197b6ec7c3803e3cb97 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x4cd11adce16ff8d010f75ab0c2ecf842132633439511381fd3b04b59be18c456 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next James Bond be British? | Event: will-the-next-james-bond-be-british | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0037196037285748057
2. Question: Houthi strike on Israel before August? | Event: houthi-strike-on-israel-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7539869769015304
3. Question: 1,3... | yes | 0.976759 | bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | 73,561,400 | 73,656,056 |
d5ee81c62bc398d28ac9adde1c0b179c90059d09 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xc83fa4a9f366672164f699d4ee488e64c60ef2a294e294cb7db07d00156c4de8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Houthi strike on Israel before August? | Event: houthi-strike-on-israel-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7539869769015304
2. Question: 1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August? | Event: 1350-measles-cases-in-us-before-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07160694421045298
3. Quest... | no | 1 | will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-before-august | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August? | 73,561,400 | 74,949,508 |
fd4d99734ac977306cead87889d965b8fac969b4 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x04b710a81d7d80fb85fb30104b9b2b67f1a13a37028d6c1029d328801c564458 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August? | Event: 1350-measles-cases-in-us-before-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07160694421045298
2. Question: Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | Event: will-2025-be-the-hottest-year-on-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will x... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on July 1? | 73,656,056 | 73,656,056 |
26b0a6d4673bfd13d54d192919930c1bb53c53f9 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x2f2bc5e2bd7a5f67df8086008935c6cbbec2275b9ec17cf201bfdef7dc97c90c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | Event: will-2025-be-the-hottest-year-on-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6345892649226905
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | 73,656,056 | 73,656,056 |
5b0a359b581eaf9df89ed020e3464ed1c7f8c5f8 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x9d2e1817100e309098a47dbdd95a953e35cd803aa7a7e202650e9101296be042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6345892649226905
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: y... | no | 0.986519 | bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | 73,656,056 | 73,656,056 |
b9f4d1aa4ee5ef4d2a7589a834204d8eee0659c9 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x0a12e902e55d5ed95ccf05810cce8f3c0f1d4e6ac3851f4f008356f714b1e801 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Ch... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on July 1? | 73,656,057 | 73,656,057 |
6876314daa55dc7486dc1f535f4e8e8fbf0e5e14 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x26f93958dd9636f3cba576b22319b9fd236d046a6c1cadfabb2d942682db9bf4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wimbledon: Mochizuki vs. Khachanov | Event: wimbledon-mochizuki-vs-khachanov | Choice: mochizuki | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-2nd-place | Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | 73,656,081 | 73,656,081 |
8f11b4c51899e833c8b424e2ea59ba8b2f03e961 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x8d0139c21a36eaf6aacda9ccac75f58a45a9f2209b336351bebcce4ab11b3b03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Mochizuki vs. Khachanov | Event: wimbledon-mochizuki-vs-khachanov | Choice: mochizuki | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.847707223290566... | yes | 0.3749 | starmer-out-in-2025 | Starmer out in 2025? | 73,656,081 | 73,656,081 |
33eccd6252955e916fe2593af2adbd47ed3a35b1 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xb51e060a04691204a9678f5a0418146c4629283b1c04a887501c173b22f0fcdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 89°F or higher on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8477072232905665
2. Question: Diddy convicted of a felony? | Event: diddy-convicted-of-a-felony | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bit... | no | 1 | how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? | 73,656,081 | 73,656,081 |
5c36326e1fd1e0c09d8e425a7f9596b8336b2fbc | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x64d7872d2849ac4f3ee6617679672834379d92350d630cc4f1a05748b59130b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Diddy convicted of a felony? | Event: diddy-convicted-of-a-felony | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on Jul... | no | 0.897697 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will Ferrari have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,656,081 | 73,726,457 |
410d76e7660af682e83eb83e2412695e0d63191f | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x3060226717d0a23894275f4712600bcaa5c653e1b42542e0d379345ea43f515c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highe... | yes | 0.750502 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will Red Bull have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,656,081 | 73,726,458 |
659d10b87566a5787a4836ab6cdc029865f7f3d0 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x398e26afdd4f9197bc203c1dd350df493daab84b54d6108103962c2363c9d149 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Ch... | no | 0.693927 | gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-method-of-win | Will Mexico beat USA in Regulation Time? | 73,656,081 | 73,726,458 |
b103ae45337d954676599f0a167f4d76b99ca0ab | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xde72d13901b99bfb3832966f595fb46557047a372eae551dcbbf6f091b14570c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.89879 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will Aston Martin have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,656,081 | 73,726,458 |
d4e6f7e9917eccfab9200b11ca61183ac72790e4 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xfea66e61521e5956a404953f012495642e683042a409d589157e89512cbd1aac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Erdogan repeal presidential term limits? | Event: will-erdogan-repeal-presidential-term-limits | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the June 2025 unemploy... | yes | 0.076269 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will Alpine have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,656,081 | 73,726,459 |
f3801faa66fba891677257261f3ad841204a5670 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x08cf5c8c74a809ff52fb2897b8560b29ad11781bf3114b9ad8e1df7064194c42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Erdogan repeal presidential term limits? | Event: will-erdogan-repeal-presidential-term-limits | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury... | yes | 0.996695 | ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,726,457 | 73,726,457 |
b1050ca4a3180269cb5257e6819e1fa151ae26b7 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x0c78449b9063c59e21de29c58f264dfe68940924ef348b9f4f284f26dadbc7e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? | Event: how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will DeepSeek have... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,726,457 | 73,726,457 |
9843f37f30cbe48fd456157474c0b90e3cdb556d | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x0ed0d4d3086009e9ebfbb7df6686dee15855bebe2a64d809a1e909957150fbff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? | Event: how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4851340... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,726,458 | 73,726,458 |
76f057e20fd3e03713a30b817e0403bea70ed699 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x3f5f0506033365002e81671e4d54f54e2685fe20e7c8e248ef7941aa3cb79a70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4851340499589056
2. Question: Will Mercedes have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-which-con... | yes | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will Haas have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,726,458 | 73,726,458 |
86c152d820242bcad15dac9db26a404a239b7846 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x922309f78b69a135ba90c61c8937f695eab70d0a5af6685e6cc980913dbd69ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mercedes have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3780764993632568
2. Question: Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? | Event: will-elon-musk-unfollow-... | yes | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will Racing Bulls have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,726,458 | 73,726,458 |
214009b4820db94033b61fd650206f4f27ee161e | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xcf7c0728c0c60ef3305682fb3c78a6dac248f7f29241a5aa7977adde6a9668db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? | Event: will-elon-musk-unfollow-donald-trump-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? | Event: earthquake-7pt0-or-above-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09909866337717275
3. ... | yes | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will any other team have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,726,458 | 73,726,458 |
060da7c796969e7e13654a65c252fc8723ce7a23 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xe7ab25cff69d47ca51f58644e2fec6c9e8c872b3b2ab7466af1159181a22a0ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? | Event: earthquake-7pt0-or-above-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09909866337717275
2. Question: Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025? | Event: major-crypto-exchange-hack-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07843775904466257
3. Question: J... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,726,458 | 73,726,458 |
c659e3ab275863663886619ba84457d0e3250581 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf942631cdf098b0c03ee700571be2346b124f5db3c47191182d133e3146c0798 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025? | Event: major-crypto-exchange-hack-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07843775904466257
2. Question: Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Event: will-trump-remove-jerome-powell | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.45696174661899247
3. Question: Will t... | yes | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will Williams have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,726,458 | 73,726,458 |
c5cf8e8b567cd5c3af7b1b9097636ea768f433d1 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xa5ed113755bdba8e96d00eea6ffadff0dfe50ac722b9b80fde423204ae16de13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Event: will-trump-remove-jerome-powell | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.45696174661899247
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.582803... | yes | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Will McLaren have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,726,459 | 73,726,459 |
5b6c53270d8fe140eb75718efb8fa9c11a75d416 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf18c0fe33751e5db15e65efc9bc569ed4b35c9d718f86b847fd8ba70978a0922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5828034246305935
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Choice... | no | 0.558837 | who-will-join-the-america-party-before-october | Will Andrew Yang join the America Party? | 73,726,478 | 73,726,478 |
b36daa568588c94af99ee39540242b8ab95f8f29 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf5b228d1d9a4775c0d13abff34b361cfaa239d2d59cca695e032af9c26904a49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Choice: yes | Confide... | gen.g | 0 | msi-playoffs-geng-vs-t1 | MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. T1 | 73,726,478 | 73,803,013 |
8c24d3d7480d91d5edbb0e6aacd7aee413581a40 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xb3e762892d3ba0287b8d41b50754ea07eb0272df0c4e5760ecf9e31d3b9166dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8095826351676176
3. Questi... | no | 0 | who-will-join-the-america-party-before-october | Will Kanye West join the America Party? | 73,726,478 | 73,832,679 |
7e6bb2c61f8b97d2ba5bd4cfbfddf0df46675528 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x1f75922ecba90bb2582bc667443b80a601a630c28152cb8b58fa34aa18cd7cf9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8095826351676176
2. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment ... | yes | 0.829975 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 9? | 73,803,013 | 73,803,013 |
9674ebdce8baa9c132e3ecd9f1f381ac48bf0a1f | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf6ef07b74087ad32ccf9d0d2382483cbab5048e76169d59353ebd45e5ed5911e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9994399066829502
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be gr... | yes | 0.351703 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 9? | 73,803,013 | 73,803,013 |
3900200d4a18f5681e569190d3fedd085873dba6 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x0c514a0aeef47a7e8c01cddf3154b1721043e9f82e3b538721679a3cee467f63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9994399066829502
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9911330369673297
3. ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9? | 73,803,014 | 73,803,014 |
08afccefaad3cfb0f2c5376ad2678d41cd02b262 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xdcd6a0f3d096f20e76b7044342cc249a09959d2d3bf023923680b885c0de8de1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9911330369673297
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 9? | 73,803,014 | 73,803,014 |
182dd106612fe2769494c4cf7e9aa707abcfbf03 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf2e139559264ad12aaa17268580d751a2deb240cdd3e4b7f46ea4394c41758c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9767591993335003
2. Question: Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August? | Event: will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 9? | 73,803,738 | 73,803,738 |
c5dc1cd9d4eeb9b928eac921a1c4ed9323d792db | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x7383330f2a2e5c928def875aba1cd3313da499fe1ac02efc0261b3c1c6ed28ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August? | Event: will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.388542 | how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? | 73,832,679 | 73,832,679 |
c9247b623063f5427d7c58d8a7d9590f3f253511 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x4cedbddfde0872b20aac8b421b98d3808cd97d15bbff5d10602615c8476c68e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | another-successful-houthis-attack-shipping-in-july | Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? | 73,832,679 | 74,949,508 |
8b6682a2dc1700f07be12c12361fe7ca7eb51cd8 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xade19136531e94d4c050b35995e65b2434fb47e5454b6bed5a64b3cb5a654d61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.795332 | mls-soccer-san-diego-vs-nashville | MLS: Will San Diego FC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? | 74,507,919 | 74,507,919 |
2d72e693be706500da17c6a2caec10ad1caadc94 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x4312fc012e315252ece189e1b0f77dfdedf6b27e06bd2fbffb9ee8c9ff023601 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.986518672005896
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Ch... | no | 0 | will-andrew-cuomo-drop-out-155 | Will Andrew Cuomo drop out? | 74,950,633 | 74,950,633 |
0b94364a3955c118f0e0d82462750fe69834103c | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x0aad81bc98e12a9a9384f8ac6561e76935be0524059f3b8b83a2428ea359ccd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or below on July 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | Event: f1-constructors-championship-2nd-place | Choice: no... | yes | 0.114196 | how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? | 74,950,633 | 75,349,962 |
e879d531acbf74459dd12802782b97b79ef53384 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xa6eeba1cd2c0beba807664f64acf1e5d413abd66be3192cd390a416f0231ba82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | Event: f1-constructors-championship-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Starmer out in 2025? | Event: starmer-out-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3748996920642758
3. Question: Will the 10-year Treasu... | yes | 0.9956 | obama-federally-charged-in-2025 | Obama federally charged in 2025? | 74,950,633 | 77,445,965 |
b797b3be0940238c27c65bc8e6fa3b09f4505cfa | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Starmer out in 2025? | Event: starmer-out-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3748996920642758
2. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? | Event: how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ferrari have the 2nd highes... | yes | 0.998241 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | 74,950,633 | 79,973,752 |
54a1319bdd458cc6cf7a1fbb68eb47996071870c | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? | Event: how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ferrari have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores... | no | 0.674157 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | 74,950,633 | 79,973,753 |
d6944562598e2ad5921f34152cd1b19cb134e65f | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ferrari have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8976972627672646
2. Question: Will Red Bull have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | 74,950,633 | 79,973,753 |
5951c3870c33862383216ecf34fea3a15226af40 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xf8a6ec4f777d3453e9171ebb219eb3d79dcf5b38d247e514f437bd2dfc834d47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-2nd | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7505018422944627
2. Question: Will Mexico beat USA in Regulation Time? | Event: gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-method... | no | 1 | how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? | 75,914,614 | 79,973,749 |
2dc2c68dec15723833341d99039111e0364b6275 | 0x2e62eddf5acffa59a97706de674348a2e600b22e | 0xaa2fcea452dc12478de71b9c7efca656b417456be4d05c7da998d03595697d59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mexico beat USA in Regulation Time? | Event: gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-method-of-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6939272057607672
2. Question: Will Aston Martin have the 2nd highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-... | israel | 1 | will-israel-or-iran-break-the-ceasefire-first | Will Israel or Iran break the ceasefire first? | 75,914,624 | 75,914,624 |
77871e2fb79865977cfeb797bdc5532381eed7c2 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x2df0f9131944410c596a5ec62c3c19d2dde36d97002e9a236ea5323ffe1a9be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?
Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | 77,542,188 | 77,542,188 |
de3a733b14b8e5a9a27716e96177f8c24bbeffb9 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x319825b4422801a53da59c796e17cfb0fb08bd5183f30d837bf6c1ae564fb9cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ... | yes | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,542,188 | 77,542,188 |
c5b9525a60e6b0e1dd7f1bdc01528889b53c8810 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x929411eddaf4454dbcfdb0eb01bd484c3b152183ffc6d4d271ed9ec10195ef27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,542,188 | 77,542,188 |
55f03321b24fb4964d4015e40a6afd8fa381c6df | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xb3ed322902fbad68dd6205197526e839e28bc9bc09172c9689d2686775225340 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-sales-121 | Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000? | 77,542,188 | 77,542,188 |
ecda6ba943f3abe094541b8ed2867b7a860d959c | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x759048a632312364298e30d39946223fcbd5e16b288d41e7c06a2a74a87ef5d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,170 | 77,699,170 |
952a1da2a0462fcfede79acd3f36c6f710debb1e | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x09459d56a9ff0a658170778911d2ad50c82841945d1927277960f0d0a265f00a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-nga-ben-2025-10-14 | Will Benin win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
8256ffe20ac9c806d0c6f0f630c08b0195cd009d | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x13a4fc36925ce44a9192c0c4d34caee160614021bb9538e590f510b5518afd51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | fif-rus-bol-2025-10-14 | Will Bolivia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
2cba0794ff5ee5bba548cdda10d8394cbd0d6fd8 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x1a1a1d810c6b4e3f8c8f76ff7a8380c853a0fe5a093a6bd129a012f136bedc94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | uef-and-ser-2025-10-14 | Will Andorra win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
b1c6477b116eb51cec5f69e825130b69ae22bb5c | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x2225413f8d1e0854340e6a53a5f367629758a0709de04ea5f1fd62ad6a6e6c1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-rsa-rwa-2025-10-14 | Will Rwanda win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
6fc94325c11036a6bfd7925b7b14a53755a6f671 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x47538fb3381771aa824ddf0331fecd3b11684877d90e6c9fffa73f9f6f171717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | cof-kor-tri-2025-10-14 | Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
3b25739c9cacf8a9932696a107b66ec5930133f1 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x559a4aa8d38318be4a2a92324ab00a3b455334d9ca78af4a69ce626c06f54424 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-gab-bur-2025-10-14 | Will Burundi win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
2b29a7a51968b170dcd5892eea3cee4c20cacc88 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x5722044c376bc05dd556720aed749275ee4a188c9e4fbb066be27f64b61ea357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 | Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
ae027b44ab9da211ef9ede63dfcc2c554fc142c3 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x5bfd95059fb835c1864ae0ab240d851a747be960e3d2b2a3eb9efaa407d32928 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-mar-cgo-2025-10-14 | Will Congo win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
820f95f971550cefdb4d3521031ee21ee5482fc1 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x7b7d436e6e9628f7b7acb9624e5e51939714937b40ea8fc7bd0944ab29910c7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
9e251577216bcd44951392fef3c81824ba0fdb36 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xadd9111eb82680be933436e43ebc3cab3d23a1a88ce5eb0cdf066f80394eaa4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-som-moz-2025-10-14 | Will Somalia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
9e3d2440a481a317ff67c7f27d2e0c5cc2cbe8ce | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xb478ae82a0f7dd0593426c78d4c926846da78cd055ee06fa092ff6bc21a5e805 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-civ-ken-2025-10-14 | Will Kenya win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
691831bbeecee57b28af7a646627214a9f01c8b3 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xb6dc2ea3366b97451a2ca8aafab2ce36c3b22951da71f53860133460df267813 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-sen-mtn-2025-10-14 | Will Mauritania win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
937de20443bfe1e0badc1dd0ee2e1fca83b42139 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xe6503d7a949c14973c104991c2b9aaf7219dd61c943391919e26134840db6deb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-sey-gam-2025-10-14 | Will Seychelles win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
adedfc914b73382c16d10d0224d52f68d11cad1a | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xe7c79e96662965ba25340b778d9a3ae18662f3399289a83d1138514ef408ca3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,171 | 77,699,171 |
48ae7b7bc5410298de10ee95f3ab08409e8b2e07 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x28613fb3ef74e09f66aed5e88f077cb386cbc5668cab44efe2e0ee639e0e9b4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-alg-uga-2025-10-14 | Will Uganda win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,172 | 77,699,172 |
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