sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ee35b49347579f717a68525710d178e2263f2235 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x328e04c31f9677e41787f6209aed8262520eed3be8cc4b5351d583bb8e795741 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-273 | Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week? | 77,699,172 | 77,699,172 |
722e1e4baa0fe8023b8c42a1f2de3ba89ee4b14a | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x93aff64db2c4da20598cb79b771f4c8aaee8d3ebf4cc64cc19f867a7811e5878 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | fif-alb-jor-2025-10-14 | Will Jordan win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,172 | 77,699,172 |
d8b9fa94ae586742abf132852f04bf57d2246ad4 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x96e7361269406d3772ea6d4f45b65d348f85e0ca4e65be152abec14e106cf621 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-gui-bot-2025-10-14 | Will Botswana win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,172 | 77,699,172 |
d36c980a46a98e23f9746bb67bc04cb7f3d3a71d | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xa5d194ce0bce66d0b28b631a4640fe0f970e032fe8155d9d4ef6da2ce360832d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | caf-cdr-sdn-2025-10-14 | Will Sudan win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,172 | 77,699,172 |
2b95b7ef6214ae3ecde184b77678a113593995b5 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xa8218a62f50805c38114d0b25760dbfeac0c4a4ef3508a397697d4827eb027d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | fif-irn-tan-2025-10-14 | Will Tanzania win on 2025-10-14? | 77,699,172 | 77,699,172 |
efdddb7897cba8db663b2a97286c9887bbc23aef | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x2bf165044ce417d8e4cd62d8e81cbcd92ec14bb2f9ecf63410350314084f1fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | fif-col-can-2025-10-14 | Will Canada win on 2025-10-14? | 77,716,547 | 77,716,547 |
4a416b663d171989360dd8b9bfcdaa6efab74a6e | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x686c9621d66a3de81b907f396a0f394baf6033a7c50b113546e770cb7b97680d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | cof-jam-ber-2025-10-14 | Will Bermuda win on 2025-10-14? | 77,716,547 | 77,716,547 |
540d1f90d974db136ab0e2c995ad0cf60abdb693 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xbbf187ff7553075bf3ee06c06546b8c140ddbc10b1c728e6c6715273a8be1686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | fif-arg-pur-2025-10-14 | Will Puerto Rico win on 2025-10-14? | 77,716,547 | 77,716,547 |
04b0e09924fc5dc09aab2d0bc4d3023a40f52e51 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xefc77dbe3e8d73c98c4f84ba2fa052944fe1ddfe81dbf5643e46218b739c1f52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | cof-pan-sur-2025-10-14 | Will Suriname win on 2025-10-14? | 77,716,547 | 77,716,547 |
92cb5511213212308cd7860dae32467a035ca907 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x4860a6cdb643650b3f2571cc592236093775a6c116b1e1d9864c250f0678085d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | 77,761,511 | 77,761,511 |
23d45017fccd87c0e1b5194e8c62a1fa46690507 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x54143d019961e4cba933818ce0879695d41877f6eccba30a78ef5d7717953843 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan's Em... | yes | 1 | fif-ven-blz-2025-10-14 | Will Venezuela win on 2025-10-14? | 77,761,511 | 77,761,511 |
216750c45d09316256c1668c0a35edc495103a4e | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x04b6051ee0d0b9bb15576b8b7add09776c9937c2e57e804e2ebc0dcd75a046ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | fl1-tou-met-2025-10-19 | Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-19? | 77,906,240 | 77,906,240 |
5d5aa9e5cd28096304bb9940586b2ebe3bdd50f1 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x37ff58bf4cac638a8f33610858a54843638ad9690b70a707d76b80aef9e5c53d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000? | Event: the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-s... | yes | 1 | den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19 | Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19? | 77,906,240 | 77,906,240 |
3d0098a66ae876ce15cc7e7568d7b5f2defa2ead | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x47981447537eb66d066458e25ea80663b1c474551b1d115bf9bd30199a2ced23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000? | Event: the-life-of-a-showgirl-first-week-album-sales-121 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | rus-soc-zen-2025-10-19 | Will FK Sochi win on 2025-10-19? | 77,906,240 | 77,906,240 |
e080caa2d7aafe17e53061e0c7b5d37bffeb5914 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xc70e37109aedd1b91b78e5723680ee5e640fc119f1ba7e178b6a14dcf7026ce7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benin win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-nga-ben-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bolivia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-rus-bol-2025-10-14 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | tur-fen-kar-2025-10-19 | Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2025-10-19? | 77,906,240 | 77,906,240 |
5faf58d4da78c8c24bf74064b07a43f131d505e1 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xdc8666cbf62ea7771df5b673f5a0c6b3cf8174cb487c91a470430841fd70e389 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benin win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-nga-ben-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bolivia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-rus-bol-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Andorra win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-and-ser-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | arg-est-gim-2025-10-19 | Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-10-19? | 77,906,240 | 77,906,240 |
b822fe8f4321c6de226de957e16796f21275aff7 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xf43fce0217d84ff961b10fd792bedf80ba755a28c6b53471f8f9d096fa4747ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bolivia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-rus-bol-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Andorra win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-and-ser-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rwanda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-rsa-rwa-2025-10-14 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | ere-her-fey-2025-10-19 | Will Heracles Almelo win on 2025-10-19? | 77,906,240 | 77,906,240 |
6ecc2894e40011856da47fe92dc00140c95c05eb | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x0eb1bd2515653f038ed51e05a473a0dad2e5ec94b7f5cb92384f8bb8728cfe70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andorra win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-and-ser-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rwanda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-rsa-rwa-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-kor-tri-2025-10-14 ... | yes | 1 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19? | 77,955,185 | 77,955,185 |
a14975be57df7fd57eab30346c80ebd10e97b22e | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x2dbb00715c0e2e2ea354b860e9b1a881502c5656a67c64c58a09264361710a47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rwanda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-rsa-rwa-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-kor-tri-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burundi win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-gab-bur-2025-10-14 ... | yes | 1 | bra-bah-gre-2025-10-19 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-19? | 77,955,185 | 77,955,185 |
8bd80232ae04d53bfd611b7e0cf1d542b4e0106b | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x5feede470b5baf60e8ff3abf3ce50146985b13f1e47206addca2fe8979856510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-kor-tri-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burundi win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-gab-bur-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 ... | yes | 1 | arg-ros-pla-2025-10-19 | Will CA Platense win on 2025-10-19? | 77,955,185 | 77,955,185 |
f30851a21200090e2fc576b71d1d326dc31c78fd | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x8b57a88cbdde4e93c286e09d46981cd43ced9fa7f7bf2c06cee9501a433bdfa7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burundi win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-gab-bur-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Congo win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-mar-cgo-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-sao-2025-10-19 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-19? | 77,955,185 | 77,955,185 |
44f649f9e0c7d651c880afc356f73ac802bea3ab | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xe80469e2127b4b67c6b94d66c635d6d2a6a47f9df6bc63177d1d2c9fc3550425 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Congo win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-mar-cgo-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | arg-sms-ind-2025-10-19 | Will CA Independiente win on 2025-10-19? | 77,955,185 | 77,955,185 |
2cf6e0e5f7bee160c4cc04c327924bd964fe99df | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xcc9d529e735c24bf33e33403d10a70484b44281db5e42a625440a1e16271629e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Congo win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-mar-cgo-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Somalia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-som-moz-2025-10-14 | Choice:... | seahawks | 0 | nfl-hou-sea-2025-10-20 | Texans vs. Seahawks | 77,956,954 | 77,956,954 |
aedaa07fd66e7d8bb8acd461d10f8bb741500fe7 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x61333fc26e113d65215d87139cf2ec4a7d56408714cb7d1e58391cf7384451af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Somalia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-som-moz-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kenya win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-civ-ken-2025-10-14 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | spl-fat-ett-2025-10-24 | Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2025-10-24? | 78,153,377 | 78,153,377 |
d250dc91445434624e30c388c05c159d44f3f324 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xf041cd6925d8a0d8c0e966c7d53174e93ec31d1454660f70f8c3f684ab8bf5f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Somalia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-som-moz-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kenya win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-civ-ken-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mauritania win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-sen-mtn-2025-10-14 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-24? | 78,153,377 | 78,153,377 |
8e5712312392390d773160239042a64da7608448 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xf4cad71ad213a7cfbad86303dfddfd88fea749a3c6f3215f7a31cdf3d1a284ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kenya win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-civ-ken-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mauritania win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-sen-mtn-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Seychelles win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-sey-gam-2025-10-14 | Choic... | yes | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-24 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? | 78,153,377 | 78,153,377 |
a44e1181a8548d16036e9c3561aab790b08374dc | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x90eab03b5df47b48c257f046bb1aaa58f18a46d52d7d57b81710007f43ebe8ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mauritania win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-sen-mtn-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Seychelles win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-sey-gam-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Choi... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-945 | Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more? | 78,233,474 | 78,233,474 |
c24ed0f13ab5e9b22f3b8f1e43c160100020a0c6 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x5c7150b58c52416710cbbf320025b085cc67b70835f8b6b58eb3339b92f4cde7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seychelles win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-sey-gam-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Uganda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-alg-uga-2025-10-14 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,424,200 | 78,424,200 |
4eee308eef4e4c3ebcabf578a2fb523f74ff686a | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xd7bcd5f62ba835b641dc35add63976f588d134cb125101829407961fb9483610 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-10-14? | Event: uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Uganda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-alg-uga-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week? | Event:... | yes | 1 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-october-731 | Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? | 78,448,532 | 78,448,532 |
04ca0dae847e6ffe9106c628576b4c81aaf0c5dd | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xdf1a9a3fe267d5627ef9da3c7905ef483d447de599356444c08d13749fada668 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Uganda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-alg-uga-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week? | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-273 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will J... | no | 1 | how-many-israeli-strikes-on-yemen-by-october-31 | Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31? | 78,448,572 | 78,448,572 |
baa8716a6548d2627fd0633a5f9b4d7c8e7ba6fd | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xc40cbb2d7f5d2c43c624bd5b1d0b18cd3d0682b3937363ec7c1ad1d13bee107e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week? | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-273 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jordan win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-alb-jor-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,719,418 | 78,719,418 |
0eab8e7452f1b0b445bea5c2d1e8cbec5520e187 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jordan win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-alb-jor-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Botswana win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-gui-bot-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sudan win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-cdr-sdn-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,719,418 | 78,719,418 |
16ecae507b4d21cf92238ba43659883785f8bb57 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x4eafbdc2ba0bbc9fcfc0dfbf21e8dd3544e3b42db56ad2b477c213dd782333ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Botswana win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-gui-bot-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sudan win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-cdr-sdn-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tanzania win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-irn-tan-2025-10-14 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-31-november-7 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? | 78,737,890 | 78,737,890 |
fa0645df99ba0a5dc7f726c95aa98ce6004e16e2 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x93cb3616632292f873370cfe0fdf4f71f0d378f497fd7d237aff316ac9cb93fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sudan win on 2025-10-14? | Event: caf-cdr-sdn-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tanzania win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-irn-tan-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-col-can-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 14? | 79,123,764 | 79,123,764 |
f154d370c15598e440016f50a200ad134d82cdb4 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x711958fe6eb4583b75afc501236836b20a3e17b95d69efcec047cc8ce5060d6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tanzania win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-irn-tan-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Canada win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-col-can-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bermuda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-jam-ber-2025-10-14 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | seattle-mayoral-election | Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? | 79,123,774 | 79,123,774 |
e3e3fca31402bedd57898f967471d16eef0fe303 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x2e4cbe59f45ed80d8824820176d434eb7aa3dbb2d6cf56e23d676ef7dcf45163 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Canada win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-col-can-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bermuda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-jam-ber-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Puerto Rico win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-arg-pur-2025-10-14 | Choice... | yes | 1 | chile-presidential-election | Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | 79,275,029 | 79,275,029 |
32af5c9c86957669f3f5d45b15a3cbff8b553896 | 0x2e869adc00706c3922e90fe568bd5b09c76e6bc9 | 0x7b182075765745aa9a361a1deb587ecdbaf256782f9978c4a3ed10db54ee88bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bermuda win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-jam-ber-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Puerto Rico win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-arg-pur-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Suriname win on 2025-10-14? | Event: cof-pan-sur-2025-10-14 | Choi... | yes | 1 | mex-pac-pum-2025-11-20 | Will CF Pachuca win on 2025-11-20? | 79,317,532 | 79,317,532 |
57fc7273d3d2bf02a22768ef29d011e44731565e | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xbaca4868a18f0075c35330ae1a70637d7f38e02514f4de5a35be022d6ca589f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18?
Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | 63,700,740 | 63,700,740 |
0bfb2d1c63934ac0734c86ea4d568f43ba549441 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xf07e8d186f77913343ae95526ff8da8522748efda53f80e9361b29d9b805111c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election?
Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024
Predict the user's choice and confi... | no | 1 | porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | 63,700,740 | 63,700,740 |
ea3fc5831c80c5a2c1c81eb750f4ac5ba2c8aca5 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x626436e51a9b7486bf356594f29de0c729ae4e88b4c196e58d2eb9cc8d4105f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | 63,751,878 | 63,751,878 |
fb53b634290d8e1d50b0dc947fcaedfc0ed115ec | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x8ebedd688fce55ed993a0d3b0d7841296e093551beec0d01f03ff5f636602c50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | nebraska-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska Presidential Election? | 64,123,258 | 64,123,258 |
172feaf09caf06e96f059786dd9d7e7b824c01d7 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x122fcee73f3f3a566a8b909af0917c6d972cccbad2277a76e0ae06297866ed13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Kamala Harris win Maryland by the largest margin? | 65,266,206 | 65,266,206 |
c9c1af924c8e163c353b8de7ef90269ef6864b17 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 65,266,206 | 65,266,206 |
69ebc62aaed1d1de237863ea62d9d01982e91552 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x4ec536d2f8a8658df89327cd0766b5a8b692914e9b7315e5dfac26bebb2e3792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will Andrés Ojeda win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 65,266,206 | 65,266,206 |
432dd0768ea604a2e346a9d9d9cea6b065265cb6 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x870efa69f5c2694036556d1cbc6f15c91933a75314e489788dbbfde966203d99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | wicked-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? | 65,266,206 | 65,266,206 |
9a6edd42af9b6c24c4d4c05b8fcc8c07ed31502e | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xe4dd13be90246f23e092ac3367468fdc6fd7bd7fdc956406398ec2b139424c5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Will North Carolina be the closest state? | 65,266,206 | 65,266,206 |
14b8ea6ca4ea0f1082f1893f7713e417b83c0fb8 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x21689d1c243520bcaff1f0a9d7e45bd63da4f86fbb6a3aec93008e17d437d2c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | which-state-will-trump-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Trump win Wyoming by the largest margin? | 66,554,559 | 66,554,559 |
1ea594917c99bdbf0da8d54e28cb0c88b2065856 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x4b32ae22d0d4ff4c1f82608961263c5a15cb234e83fda15adf2df6a82c94c9b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | rfk-popular-vote-share | Will RFK Jr. win 6-7% of the popular vote? | 66,554,559 | 66,554,559 |
67f2cd7d8090bc7f4f33910e600fc7b8e8619cb7 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x71363a064e99548e892a6cc0e06f89ec6f5ef77a0cf74cf1d25b87865fcba216 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | next-coin-on-robinhood | Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? | 66,554,559 | 66,554,559 |
bb52fdd00ae7270d15b7c14d1e3a112e490d5a6a | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xb685671ec5f12410f48006fad1ec60fa1a1e19f3a5ba09a81ab45b026821252d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting? | 66,554,559 | 66,554,559 |
c071f6e91d1660428ed883931b09890fc45fbe4b | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xf1e8d58513d652e1248d2da60d3b35a684362f15a4e9bcd90660ddfd044b16cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | 66,554,559 | 66,554,559 |
1095cc727d6b4ff5a44b7f2b0ccfdec052618630 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xb6b07ed97d10051f2a63821e47ff46d71d4f479fa255ce8a6e07d5325ac06a68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024? | 66,554,561 | 66,554,561 |
5c4e388232222344c908d0a038e9657b4502bbdd | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x454d5dfaa39a5795bbb4f15567c84b780b88c998d5a576d79f38866be4661e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? | 68,077,109 | 68,077,109 |
cf9d6a3c0a1ff378bdf834311e4d46f8c5539442 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xadad2dd2d1ed28b514e38c8890465eef726e4422268cc9b38eef41d5bd3a57e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | afc-champion | Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? | 68,077,109 | 68,077,109 |
d1341cdb6a1fbd6f0e6ba5b3ad55c284e80dbd06 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 68,077,109 | 68,077,109 |
c5ff0920923333cbadb0fd8798aa25cb9a1a2be9 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xd3b35c9c70d199a85f23be172696b57a32d95edf3b90aa2f124a4043e2f165f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | nfc-champion | Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship? | 68,077,109 | 68,077,109 |
cc221a5da0a45fe9d4b813c6af1d1e1b654fa152 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x3f56bae1879b7336e2e77fd2955557216cd305cff2481844e799050b364a3ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,401,524 | 68,401,524 |
4f3d662dfd15327e65cf5f5c04c565fb105d118a | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xf7050a33a8444389ef1800e4476b43a987ff72668be0b616a4b457f5ba944a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | 69,375,691 | 69,375,691 |
b6fcfb0b3ec5acded5f29c4d840be3dec6130f9b | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x834a4109dbd18f97695e4858b3a18d21fff19bc2dc7c055f18b96843ac1de17b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | 73,859,604 | 73,859,604 |
9c2a488227b909c16d392fb2837938d4c1d44764 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x0a746739f8e80926884ba569f066d415f3e47b08b501d2cf216f0b2a83936d2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bra-rec-mir-2025-10-25 | Will SC Recife vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
bc3e4c141595d13617a23e9119787fe4a60e7c73 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x5603c9a9d784c56afe9cfa57b3a3916252de4c1369ab710c09e35255d88141ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bra-fec-fla-2025-10-25 | Will Fortaleza EC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
0cdc29deee9572d508049162c8bbf8a20bab39f2 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x5d06e92f945c8c021e486865737ec154f5f0ee3e801ed7b8ca37063d9f6b3d2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Will CA Mineiro vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
6cd695000f3bdfd027b61c5193365e67a42fbba9 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x62f3744c7b483c50b415df0f09024e581d2a64bfd0646cd654d2e4b15ceae835 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
aff8e0f0ba7391a7b6edbba2474a104ae59bc252 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x8156c8887f48b1f4629a6a3930edf7d35b0a47bb2fd97e9619c75bf6b6ee031a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | bra-cam-csc-2025-10-25 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-25? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
4ddfe45ec96825998ef8bc615415b399e01ddb49 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x9d595cdcbe066d749b56d4b7e6221d36f23d3c5f2fc2d9f1982f3700140446ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bra-flu-int-2025-10-25 | Will Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional end in a draw? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
7dfe79310c0d1889a9398f031ff9e91a218e51dc | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xc295531a4ea56206025dda8266450b00ac58c5b914caca21e4476d45aeb8ecd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bra-rec-mir-2025-10-25 | Will SC Recife win on 2025-10-25? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
0c9f478b2520ac495ea8f85c38c61a2a8a4b871b | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xd5f9fe811279d23ecd3c53d27177dd643ed03ad49ef5ac5234af273754e33838 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | bra-rec-mir-2025-10-25 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
4c5b235f1c49562676c1e603319aed5ef677d04a | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xd762dd57bc18c369ca9137668cc88c5754e1e4da65236bcf494e2be9562917ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 40 or more times October 11-18? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Joyce Banda win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
9712c1ed4a0640f77a7d4583456c005a91ee9d3e | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xd7dee17bc7e050bf272083ac1e9c44ed8c5414e663a01b546ef10d6654b6b771 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | Event: porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-e... | yes | 1 | bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-25? | 78,429,606 | 78,429,606 |
0b245c195a8834ebb2cf21cb721835658f0235a6 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x87a150db18b2b7908c095603a16cf4071fb07bda87b11fa8da3782b929ccf981 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-in-saskatchewan-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska Presidential Election? | Event: nebraska-presidential-... | no | 1 | bra-sao-bah-2025-10-25 | Will São Paulo FC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw? | 78,429,608 | 78,429,608 |
c5b66790bb4e842c900f94bc12b1d4c0d21bc98b | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xc67e8823560db008cd1b04a3355cace16a0e6c8fa017651dbd818232c2ca42f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska Presidential Election? | Event: nebraska-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win Maryland by the largest margin? | Event: which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Will EC Vitória vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? | 78,429,608 | 78,429,608 |
19e5e34fd2d72c46f21cb6b07a4844807818a8af | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0xc747cef9c5c8d38e13be23f740ceae125c5b68be806c20fd152d83cb2e071f7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win Maryland by the largest margin? | Event: which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-seas... | no | 1 | bra-vit-cor1-2025-10-25 | Will EC Vitória win on 2025-10-25? | 78,429,608 | 78,429,608 |
48016729075c4d0ee26a562d3c7f9b8854eea177 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x072e7534f3458562784d20bbf83a9903a7d49a0f966556f952ad966dd7d30e0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Andrés Ojeda win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Event: uruguay-presidential-election-winne... | no | 1 | bra-bah-bra-2025-11-02 | Will EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? | 78,516,402 | 78,516,402 |
69b5851551eb915b92e1eec496abd805a1fddda4 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x09ea520f70efc58947cf26da4cf149c15b5dbfea16eecf8e9e444ef4adfbca6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrés Ojeda win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Event: uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? | Event: wicked-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | bra-san-fec-2025-11-03 | Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-03? | 78,516,402 | 78,516,402 |
aa83d68144121582e1734027f8bb11a19178421d | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x2fc64c99025a481464b6e2f22874dbf52d6bf28de56fcab2c17456dc9598dbcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? | Event: wicked-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will North Carolina be the closest state? | Event: closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump win W... | yes | 1 | bra-sao-bah-2025-10-25 | Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-25? | 78,516,453 | 78,516,453 |
01c58257ce33bcd6faa5f6ec31111f36b90972c9 | 0x2e8e0707d50683c1ea8c3896de1a86bf0e616b5e | 0x4057bfd53fb55e0a680b479d434145b054bb0956116d24d3816112a9ebfddd79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will North Carolina be the closest state? | Event: closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win Wyoming by the largest margin? | Event: which-state-will-trump-win-by-the-largest-margin | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will R... | no | 1 | bra-flu-int-2025-10-25 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,516,453 | 78,516,453 |
8839f91d62653b4b0a7dc381d167c37dfcb8c031 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: presidential-election-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.987874 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 59,927,932 | 64,806,609 |
ee2ff10fd3a2414ed5794ebeb9f66b4c8d3a41a6 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x2da0e28e32024b116da85ae9a7a1455d0d8bc8e073d6406f79a66c3b7ab461a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
Target market:
Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle?
Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner
Predict the us... | no | 1 | 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | 59,971,538 | 59,971,538 |
23ee54374356c090fc400eabd6d9bc56397fb52a | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xcc58cdb95fd2da9e0ed86636e1464a9108a987b832019835ee6d12823cacdb4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 0.986617 | 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | 59,971,538 | 59,971,538 |
15ea30c17984664d1185c128247a8e00f1776efe | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xd067a9a3ba46673961d38fa80baeb1c1b9a7010a9b6224495ae30fb667e01dc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | 59,971,538 | 59,971,538 |
d5d5044b391f9171da2bf99007ec5921317f7945 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xe536ec950e9449322dca6671c7eeb25115eb0a3b575cadf60de48d811bbb3670 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Thomas Ceccon (ITA) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | 59,971,538 | 59,971,538 |
28f438b1f72b53329ef2cdf1cecff6d661fed1fa | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x3d703783c6f9c42503ad59a0d9761f8ccbde4a738fa1925fca673c0372c4f788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0.376879 | 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? | 59,982,769 | 60,201,602 |
66186379637744f3d41c12038dd691cd9d72feb1 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x6b4f079d65bc9283366bfda7e4d48a4f36f461ad57290803856e85ee7593360f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 0.997274 | 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | 60,005,066 | 60,005,066 |
22bb694c39e63f914fb7c4d756591865e9a015e4 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x579e4651cb8436942b2f3c0b5593e521ffd70622321d6a9acd6eb0f2301095fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | 60,007,664 | 60,007,664 |
9ba2a8329b18e2024a1e1a0bd5184b187827c0c0 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xdffce591646c65828e9b804e9855613c460bc50092534c80434b460df2eca2e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Daniel Wiffen (IRL) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | 60,007,664 | 60,007,664 |
8b54ad4d544d57a46932f765adc7a712cc58f04b | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xe01856c6dd5c3bef2a740acf66ee6c2d958d03836997b285942d3f4039459a06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Bobby Finke (USA) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | 60,007,664 | 60,007,664 |
afe526c18fcf25d25f2ecc471b7e7a0a93546663 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xaa8f84430dcc49b5a8b463672c370aab71885a7d680da773a50018b652a4d0c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Zhanle Pan (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | 60,049,078 | 60,049,078 |
8f1e30224eda8562e60eecd18e41bdf2e3cf7643 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xdde10a52d84bbd49ce00a9243d62f21b4ee6116a013e076fd207d58a624eef2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | 60,049,078 | 60,049,078 |
3af7d32555139d6228f2da81449e14506237c37c | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x83e47995dccc7fbc468159017eb20a167a5827d6cf9bc59cb4e5fc668c130bda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | singles-tennis-winner-w | Will Iga Świątek (POL) win Gold in Women's Tennis? | 60,075,112 | 60,075,112 |
8a1f35f14e483ac10bf36606ad15afde3afc2702 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x0b793017e0d92439d4419def8d4b7f56b6f910f7069ce446e4172e195198c4b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 200m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Hubert Kos (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke? | 60,084,875 | 60,084,875 |
825751acf553beca7499d2d37f33c8f7716166ec | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x445bca66df10bb3862e5770d71c79ebf9fc7fe3d5f9ef065848ccbcd81ac2f89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Kate Douglass (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | 60,084,875 | 60,084,875 |
d3dd30d84d207e490756fc85aa5d8e6b930e486f | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x88d1bb56647db110ccdf670dae6c380780f84740bce03aa5193e9e2821507038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Alexander Zverev (GER) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,084,875 | 60,084,875 |
110c42ac4fa90cc7a86e632fc3cf7bf0dd0f147e | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x9569e3fe91337d8c4eea40553c9e8b138cbf2fafe0a7d9e2e13046d222146ec8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | 60,084,875 | 60,084,875 |
aa7fd154669ff780eca1e4cf0ac9d7826c9d4104 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xcf6fcfde3f5e84618aebfc74c0467e6a36bbffdd56d979dcff547527b71ddf39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | 60,084,875 | 60,084,875 |
d3ea0e94ad5ede93f330cd6b9f45fd0ebb8a2008 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x748183a0c8c459d993137bdf42fc5a422a8114055131f58a422d5594a8ef5d3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0.729047 | mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Japan win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | 60,118,992 | 60,118,992 |
96d25e8839c93cf19ded21797968d612f79dbc3c | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x30709c2e19250baee2a61e0f5b350d3a7b493317c4219e92c371b58b66d7da30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | 60,121,943 | 60,121,943 |
feb3964e06a6501fb66c0d5b24aa8276b936c599 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x42b211c58e071ceee79b9c57deff6e578ce637eb877a0cf0598807f504c2f2b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | 60,121,943 | 60,121,943 |
d8d54875e48aee0a4dd67266ad364d16ea1bfe01 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xefbef317ce0613765143d2951e3049446eafa3c689895c2c19f2b7c695277588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0.981812 | 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Kaylee McKeown (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | 60,121,943 | 60,121,943 |
a9e10537cf2f5a1b89a67cb27b94412c182b2042 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xeb203ebcdfab834b801aa2b5b8fba2c83c5b87522c1653581cd09b3ce24e35ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0.133225 | mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | 60,149,331 | 60,399,086 |
b7f496ebf40d3b64ebc7fa8abf6cd69f07c2f940 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x998c5449dec2c85221a766ca25d27244d7ebe1850997060846dec34971b6faa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 0.744186 | tennis-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,154,700 | 60,195,613 |
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