sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1326562bb7bef1e9345782dd3af54e3acadf6e2e | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x97a251d99327c01ee030c77f96f64b9973f7c7f0edb5b183e014353839f58c08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 0.999994 | 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | 60,166,446 | 60,166,446 |
3acc738f55422be8640a15ce3009a39c3a331d61 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xfd0efdc952e859ac46f1becc4f9202f89c5e83c5e5058fbf31b1a9ccd827a1b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Canada win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,166,446 | 60,166,446 |
25f0195614322aceface482b3b5b3db1f4f5e7a3 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x3f314d76d5bfc8cde0edea091450640aa7922ca918e76c6f7a7154a14992fd6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,195,613 | 60,195,613 |
e3142b415f8f4ed069f81454a20320be0251c7bf | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x3f41b0540a3cd0fe9c8cead6c338300650114d5e52ac0553a85d0aa6d45e3cd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0 | will-djokovic-win-a-gold-medal-in-paris | Will Djokovic win a gold medal in Paris? | 60,195,613 | 60,195,613 |
72d2094ef7d6944c823749571a78c242cd08b4bf | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc669b702a6dc084b9a7a7d00ea098660c73171521c5abde0ad2153ef6519e40b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | golf-winner-m | Will Xander Schauffele win Gold in Men's Golf? | 60,195,613 | 60,195,613 |
2900735c6cd131c41415720bd2bac1c3ee9ac786 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xd2939f049d4329d23d3ecb00b90a63bde1307f1b7a363fb7775bc04793437808 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | golf-winner-m | Will Tommy Fleetwood win Gold in Men's Golf? | 60,195,613 | 60,195,613 |
1b493afed5d16a34c96692e9266b7df22c8e1791 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x16638709abbdd7209e7a244ece68fa62f246ced9cae5536f759278ac0a3dbac7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9878739401764248
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0.954717 | 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? | 60,201,602 | 60,201,602 |
fa1adf44c0c345dd3dee8ff408a7fcb7d68a851a | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x57f90c89879a5b5e69fad9c2a261fa6f44f3653001aa3a02446aed92aaff21bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | Event: 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.98... | no | 0.00001 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,239,252 | 60,239,252 |
df9e84bb086d8fd9c7c021e9e044746cab289433 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x5e8d74084707f9c600d02520d521a52f63ace9ebb5cfae227358ac269ad09582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | Event: 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9866173714128231
2. Question: Will Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will Greece win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,274,321 | 60,274,321 |
27f84b266c2d4ea63eb55ef3df7b2a8838c520df | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xe2364650652332fb5c900d5d2fcc44c5212127af49e39be8c579f9149b6f5207 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Thomas Ceccon (ITA) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will Australia win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,274,321 | 60,274,321 |
48ce0bc333c4edb156948bae5cb986b6bb807dff | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x2e6103503b0ff50e3eca6962c5d7349ae4d37ffa7e7995eee2bdc060055ff773 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Ceccon (ITA) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.37687892339668816
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.996767 | 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 1500m? | 60,286,105 | 60,286,105 |
ca6e0f0ed1dc715bdad72104d8745b1bb5d54c30 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xaa277684a370ec616e510a5b9aee8e885e7aabf1bd58c85650c7ed74070d89d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.37687892339668816
2. Question: Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.99727421497992... | yes | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will Canada win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,286,105 | 60,286,105 |
79f974e1b4b916c05f237388041d55e69b5a4898 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xbde022015de39953fda46b738a9cf4804944759468345ca7607a936df1ab6d7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9972742149799245
2. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 0.99878 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Spain win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,286,105 | 60,286,105 |
5e497c1444f8b74444e3e9acc3e59f18c60427d8 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xd046f3a64bd87f3b743e638ad00680af2a34dc193f164677c8c92de39e6fe9d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daniel Wiffen (IRL) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,286,105 | 60,286,105 |
d42cd01d6b4da20b3390b5e2a31a607fec910c4d | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xe64f063b9e2b02f8ac679ebacfb938088c1ddde2a953a1ebfd4a92b802910371 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Wiffen (IRL) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bobby Finke (USA) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 0.999999 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,286,105 | 60,286,105 |
2d6a38392cef8345e08865d1eff0e0d601e12df8 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x2c92250b1061993fb9ec377592eeee6dc8f81248636000a06f7349595254d13d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bobby Finke (USA) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zhanle Pan (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | usa | 1 | olympic-basketball-usa-vs-serbia | Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia | 60,351,726 | 60,359,467 |
924f79c3e208ff55a6288d7775126caa1f067138 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xae4735f6e896b3fb25faf0ee7bbc548f11908161c1640bd6fa82179b4ff8c6de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zhanle Pan (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.70286 | 200m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m? | 60,359,467 | 60,359,467 |
db454d563c0797aa0ffbd72bd9d6f59a15e54290 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x0cdc23bee916dc716c8d6f4e4970817eab39bed50987d8a5d263c9ad0472b616 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Iga Świątek (POL) win Gold in Women's Tennis? | Event: singles-tennis-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Huber... | no | 1 | 4x100m-relay-winner-m | Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x100m Relay? | 60,399,086 | 60,399,086 |
7ef84287c6e90bd45fb3bcd9e7bc679eb2bd6a9c | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x32e9aafc8f722cefe064ede579c2affe972ae28dbec4752b29206fd9bced0045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iga Świątek (POL) win Gold in Women's Tennis? | Event: singles-tennis-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hubert Kos (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kate Douglass... | no | 1 | mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | 60,399,086 | 60,399,086 |
7feb6ef87ebf0862ae4d3aa63e0edc317a1b90d1 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xb65fd8a28bda8a9bc28e0491db4d24bd6d90cae88161bb6c83e34c9c22cdcc9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hubert Kos (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kate Douglass (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Brazil win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,432,781 | 60,432,781 |
f3fb7e887b6798970cf879ffadb8643c33c49aef | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x0c6d2fc0c6238a247fb16100503f0b8b96b49be7cd3ccf3ec51e9c00106be527 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kate Douglass (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Zverev (GER) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tatjana ... | yes | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will another country win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,435,050 | 60,435,050 |
afe1834c8ab38b5a28884c9ec8a17cb3c28cd8b3 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x720f35f42b8add06234567ceefa2bf089d4010cd6d9112a4144775654dd55993 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev (GER) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Regan Smi... | no | 0.846258 | 5000m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 5000m? | 60,435,050 | 60,435,050 |
94834e7a6a1d2d520beebbf980df65cddb037812 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x9c0d1c91116311392cf2081c7ae6e2b9a19cfb6615e505c4a946166fc97ae5e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | Event: 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | 1500m-winner-w | Will Faith Kipyegon (KEN) win gold in 1500m W? | 60,435,050 | 60,435,050 |
cb671125220e924c9d82c749c61a0feb2e4b87d7 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xba8ef02cc8e9819d8d46954f568d98abd1d43cc5d4647eb916020a79a5a5d20f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | Event: 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Japan win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7290471167710157
3. Question: ... | chiefs | 0 | nfl-jax-kc-2024-08-10 | Jaguars vs. Chiefs | 60,436,217 | 60,449,351 |
1bf8cb8882d3f83a66449162ce38cc6080f1fd06 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x1ba906e40b7700d097f8a63f545a0268a7c3050d6fd27cce14cb292c34c4a8e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Japan win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7290471167710157
2. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 0.595571 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,449,351 | 60,449,351 |
f22163ac2ef6e902c407a5fe183582d4d3439549 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc897587061e5d7f753f47771408da74e2f6deb0a4baabf03280f815e5706c3d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | Event: 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | 4x400m-relay-winner-m-2024 | Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay? | 60,449,351 | 60,449,351 |
a6ed6426873b9f27a450465e1ef58fef83d76475 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x50b55c2f36de0c195b944b569824f1e6239d8a16905c8e85dee272a7514e96ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | Event: 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kaylee McKeown (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confide... | cowboys | 0 | nfl-lar-dal-2024-08-11 | Rams vs. Cowboys | 60,476,331 | 60,509,453 |
afb311d29e8f149cfa07989d446634fbbf2f6d81 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x21381e1df184460ffb9bab6aa53f702c27ed21897d74cee355526f26d79ef5a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kaylee McKeown (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.981812189267042
2. Question: Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.13322472126... | no | 1 | womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? | 60,509,453 | 60,509,453 |
7b57e40a373e4bbf3b83fc12486a860f1deb3dac | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x606ce5faa884e5847f7c60a3c0c683a108a23ee9bb61056f54b1c556286abf3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1332247212683573
2. Question: Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7441863413704888
3. Question: Will Ariar... | no | 0.309781 | what-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview | Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? | 60,513,150 | 60,552,645 |
34e77badbf76dc0739b66aebac408c911a0a9b45 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x96d5fcb00e22e4ef2698b4cda361103c811f0426995a623e95cdaee76583e1b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7441863413704888
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999940120947649
3. ... | yes | 0.000002 | what-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview | Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? | 60,518,135 | 60,518,135 |
4013ac2d93f748e287894782e47040afb9df48f8 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xd49c3caa3dedf75e00dee9459227ac69823a62379dbadb31e77a9937a861b1ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999940120947649
2. Question: Will Canada win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 1-10 times this week? | 60,552,645 | 60,552,645 |
4856a1fd3dbc919a42eee81903ac4c7e90b02d70 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x2cf290283eb0e741cb2e0682e1a976a37867700bc45678ef10cd4b40e1eb8b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Canada win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Djokovic win a gold medal in Pa... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-united-vs-fulham | Will Manchester United beat Fulham? | 60,686,579 | 60,686,579 |
a89239781e4f441185580af9a59b2e668519d824 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xe8091a8710bf95e522392510fc496f7c6df2c13d9d117d4e41baf623a3deff28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Djokovic win a gold medal in Paris? | Event: will-djokovic-win-a-gold-medal-in-paris | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win Gold in Men... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 21-25 times this week? | 60,686,579 | 60,686,579 |
27981379219631cf08b8ef5493af0da73dbf36e9 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x5f1043f4ce5bf0fe03ad5e4735850301126fb2d1216ad7b7573195a290b62865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Djokovic win a gold medal in Paris? | Event: will-djokovic-win-a-gold-medal-in-paris | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win Gold in Men's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win Gold in Men's Golf?... | falcons | 0 | nfl-bal-atl-2024-08-17 | Ravens vs. Falcons | 60,708,343 | 60,719,504 |
f044c64529d9e66c01968fccc0cce530a0776d60 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc267c83e0f695a25b12490dfe467ca688f3d1fb1db1a4ca7aa4cf51ec3a242cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Xander Schauffele win Gold in Men's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win Gold in Men's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal... | no | 1 | epl-arsenal-vs-wolverhampton | Will Arsenal beat Wolverhampton? | 60,710,602 | 60,710,602 |
f6a0f2214b80b9b026983fae006c6b55432df6b5 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x7f36e0472d943116b95b956b68e3f14d9b1798515edad98891e1b68c379b5e3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win Gold in Men's Golf? | Event: golf-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9547171817959728
3. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?... | no | 1 | epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Will Nottingham Forest beat AFC Bournemouth? | 60,710,916 | 60,710,916 |
903005569ab0b3b5c78d1dc39f42be644d9df866 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x91cb9560f73b1a468e7f85b07d46dd07146075b6927f4e3f96aa9abfbc97c144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? | Event: 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9547171817959728
2. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0231594699456834e-05
3. Question: Will Greece win G... | no | 1 | epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | 60,710,916 | 60,710,916 |
da2b3ec22127ce3d668759d4d5db09098d7b6e2e | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc08d1235c67ab3640846630870138d4f7bcff03a6a3f95b26692e0c1ec982f8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0231594699456834e-05
2. Question: Will Greece win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Australia win G... | no | 1 | epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Will Newcastle United vs. Southampton end in a draw? | 60,710,916 | 60,710,916 |
d320bf4a840f4dbb585e2f9ceb713b6bf65d6524 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x10ae20c9bf99f4d17be2bb0c3065969dbb881369688a4243fb97ef563da71505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Greece win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Australia win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) ... | no | 1 | epl-west-ham-united-vs-aston-villa | Will West Ham United beat Aston Villa? | 60,719,504 | 60,719,504 |
3cd762dd1094676f904347c54a0d3135168a6561 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x22e2409d9d5dc9619583e4afd34f208f71180e12423b52b7e3d17670ebd79789 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 1500m? | Event: 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.996767375509327
3. Question: Will Canada win G... | no | 1 | epl-everton-vs-brighton-hove-albion | Will Brighton & Hove Albion beat Everton? | 60,719,504 | 60,719,504 |
655336297f6f2092a98432218993a2f72e3b9f65 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xa1bea323c5ceb1057a7a2898b14b8ae5f004ee0d697d62a4fd5cf1ee4e5315b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 1500m? | Event: 1500m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.996767375509327
2. Question: Will Canada win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain win Gold ... | no | 1 | epl-west-ham-united-vs-aston-villa | Will Aston Villa beat West Ham United? | 60,719,504 | 60,719,504 |
9b3988caf2bee373c4be5eba75ac62f239281760 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xf2bcd3865b1fba3de43071a0b4dd3d44291e1f16369a1f268c791b75af4caeeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Canada win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9987802471406916
3. Question: Will Germany... | cardinals | 0 | nfl-ind-ari-2024-08-17 | Colts vs. Cardinals | 60,720,660 | 60,721,057 |
a016a94b208ec4938a2c7eafb49d3e74c400cd02 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x7fda23e1a1c7476ece931a79f4a92fa2a4a41f8536c16e5abb02bd0fd317e622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9987802471406916
2. Question: Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | jets | 0 | nfl-car-nyj-2024-08-17 | Panthers vs. Jets | 60,721,046 | 60,721,046 |
70697161a69545d6ec23f9abf519a9547f1672db | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x3e5d40fcb2c79f084acc7e176ec5ce529c2a388530ad488e4778be3610f79c5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999994544115445
3. Question: Olympic Bask... | seahawks | 0 | nfl-ten-sea-2024-08-17 | Titans vs. Seahawks | 60,721,507 | 60,727,248 |
d1876705aac58505a95b8d776d65ee317236f59d | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x6791c56eeeb24a5162fc7d7f8dcd4f5ef3fefe3083f1d1b76ec1624c8baa4a87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999994544115445
2. Question: Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia | Event: olympic-basketball-usa-vs-serbia | Choice: usa | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win G... | no | 1 | epl-matchday-1-chelsea-vs-man-city | Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 60,794,587 | 60,794,587 |
756a8a98240094231ef38293c25af68a8fef0b16 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xa19cea058890e5b2a51ef5f0b2b9e7693a7db19d7c2ba11d922cd1d06a86fc31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia | Event: olympic-basketball-usa-vs-serbia | Choice: usa | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m? | Event: 200m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7028604808805979
3. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x1... | no | 1 | epl-brentford-vs-crystal-palace | Will Brentford beat Crystal Palace? | 60,794,587 | 60,794,587 |
7d63e9985013b77d06867bf477e2b9e8c36d5b39 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc509136b3356b2de94b2d4df915ba27c0e91a4bcc5d20df64980004df8978331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m? | Event: 200m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7028604808805979
2. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x100m Relay? | Event: 4x100m-relay-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Footba... | no | 1 | epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | 60,800,060 | 60,800,060 |
b303c748b93c44f4ae6f52caa45a49da72ef2d72 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x401ff7c20ee2b38d03b2271825795ecb4b31f113a76e9042b818f11767505072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x100m Relay? | Event: 4x100m-relay-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brazil win Gold in Women's Footb... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Trump posts 10-19 times on X? | 60,952,984 | 60,952,984 |
bfa269391ac4edfbca710f921ac0c6012d0e6c7a | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x9c99707eb18ef1fcc485fbee4f9cf7c7e3de28af153ff968952c4f93187319b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brazil win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another country win ... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Trump posts 20-29 times on X? | 60,952,984 | 60,952,984 |
b973baa7f1cfbb9ae1aa6dda0b424c6feb6b7bb8 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x23cd677a845c77d8661d1eac9f4a637d19c0db4e1300ac6ce5f21c1278772123 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brazil win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another country win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jakob ... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Trump posts 30-39 times on X? | 60,953,418 | 60,953,418 |
605a173eb14ca9d71f6c76cc30ce340bb094e9f4 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xaa024f28735abb0a09565830d395c2e28202dc349895136371325c0552761b35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another country win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 5000m? | Event: 5000m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8462577536316591
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Trump posts 50-99 times on X? | 60,953,418 | 60,953,418 |
3637be9d449605888ec45689be877cc6eca225e7 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x040fe8243ed29430519de5400ae056245af51a8ad76a4b9a47610273cb49242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 5000m? | Event: 5000m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8462577536316591
2. Question: Will Faith Kipyegon (KEN) win gold in 1500m W? | Event: 1500m-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jaguars vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-ja... | no | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | 60,992,828 | 60,992,828 |
1cb18c526154b404b2fdf06db140b3468e06b72e | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x12ab2929522e7eb01fd7152c9b4de692e2b3e2e41eb1361cf80e3ed5d2b34e56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Faith Kipyegon (KEN) win gold in 1500m W? | Event: 1500m-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Jaguars vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-jax-kc-2024-08-10 | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-... | no | 1 | epl-brighton-vs-manchester-united | Will Manchester United beat Brighton? | 60,992,828 | 60,992,828 |
1826ac78f191431626dfcd3b90cb4b9c785dc023 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xb196b4ba7e6c8eb4cd3936d7d5428251cb2f6d8e6ace5858282344823b6f6271 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaguars vs. Chiefs | Event: nfl-jax-kc-2024-08-10 | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5955712963174177
3. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay? ... | no | 1 | epl-southampton-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Nottingham Forest beat Southampton? | 60,992,828 | 60,992,828 |
d0fa78cb98f24483889e8888b6265a39dd5c73bd | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc2fe0038c70501288ccae1054b7ddab590213134639d61d4270a807fbab638ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5955712963174177
2. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay? | Event: 4x400m-relay-winner-m-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Rams vs. Cowboys |... | no | 1 | epl-southampton-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Southampton beat Nottingham Forest? | 60,992,828 | 60,992,828 |
0c84361fc198da72da7fe1bd0c7448fa863fdc03 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc5d44748c8d00d53902a41d73678bd3036ea46481a308bab7e2aec203dd59add | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay? | Event: 4x400m-relay-winner-m-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Rams vs. Cowboys | Event: nfl-lar-dal-2024-08-11 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-baske... | yes | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Will Crystal Palace beat West Ham? | 60,992,828 | 60,992,828 |
8c2bfdca7015aedf300dde58599a5c956d045fdd | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xd5c7f5bf1b5f77ce7ed34ab95e0d2e3e1c9feb18b3640e2b7ac256de0fcc885f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Cowboys | Event: nfl-lar-dal-2024-08-11 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-city-vs-ipswich-town | Will Manchester City beat Ipswich Town? | 60,992,828 | 60,992,828 |
906f44123c1e3c42ec9ef72cf35ac9ceadeaa71a | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xd9bba210649703cfe187a3cc2e02949a94462388406426e94e65477ff421cd5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3097807903443661... | no | 1 | epl-tottenham-vs-everton | Will Tottenham beat Everton? | 60,992,828 | 60,992,828 |
34d9279e0e1f96b88e4e2c56dbac4e7a28479091 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x11d3c5a08e4cd4681b2e3d4b1e7c7d8ada9a0f80a99c1c32855896624fbd8074 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3097807903443661
2. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-arsenal | Will Aston Villa beat Arsenal? | 60,998,581 | 60,998,581 |
50fa5ceb53286807393ee1d62a16914065ff141f | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xa7b440d1c28c006f3dd220002fb0e0b0275c2c2ebcdab9e3c3609b1db3c879d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.501497745501135e-06
2. Question: Will Trump post 1-10 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-arsenal | Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa? | 60,998,581 | 60,998,581 |
ff6fd2c20fc3499405da4729bae81c59f0e8d362 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x92b4a0985ebb0a74d6c871870d96449fbb57b5f077ea9ee8125a976d8557d049 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 1-10 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United beat Fulham? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-fulham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump post 21-25 times this week?... | no | 1 | epl-bournemouth-vs-newcastle | Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth? | 61,030,684 | 61,030,684 |
3b99ae359b69bd03f507cc36004d5e050b6cafa5 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xdc70103c9f6d81bbb4d9c279a7465b61812e1c042c6746d412a65f1d2ca3b3aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United beat Fulham? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-fulham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 21-25 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ravens vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-bal-a... | no | 1 | epl-liverpool-vs-brentford | Will Liverpool beat Brentford? | 61,036,102 | 61,036,102 |
97ba9ee7705193b7fec4ffab2fa3a406c86d703f | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xe5dbabfa342ee224c5e22cf5bbe3d94878f4ae9e2402f9c74c40dd013f6be561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 21-25 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ravens vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-bal-atl-2024-08-17 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal beat Wolverhampton? | Event: epl-arsenal-vs-w... | yes | 0.282032 | epl-wolverhampton-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Wolverhampton? | 61,036,102 | 61,036,102 |
d0a9d55086c78c81566600b246780996c5e35e3e | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc76d6981700af387391fb2dfa275a1a7dd99bdc3f74d53cb69988ffe253abfb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ravens vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-bal-atl-2024-08-17 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Wolverhampton? | Event: epl-arsenal-vs-wolverhampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat AFC Bournemouth? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs... | minnesota | 0 | cfb-north-carolina-vs-minnesota | CFB: North Carolina vs. Minnesota | 61,202,095 | 61,202,095 |
00b19736931522565b4e8bb5e81eb4b020ea4c44 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xbabb810c58fc73b14d4cfe568d2d7ff4e8cd57c5ca2599e4f4c4708f45bef0ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Wolverhampton? | Event: epl-arsenal-vs-wolverhampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat AFC Bournemouth? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton?... | no | 0.494417 | us-open-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open? | 61,206,629 | 61,212,331 |
a85b61d3658ef49a8b288d66a9c28107eb21e96d | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x015cd7131994d936579b5b825efe69cab98e820c1fa884206d04876db8c473ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat AFC Bournemouth? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-afc-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United vs.... | yes | 1 | us-open-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open? | 61,272,813 | 61,272,813 |
eaa04f3c861eff82f74adf4fb3fa0a017ac6eec1 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x04d0dfb637fbfbaaecde66379199fd65dca71e071c3bc9c37cb18ba6227173f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle United beat Southampton? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham United b... | yes | 1 | epl-brentford-vs-southampton | Will Southampton beat Brentford? | 61,272,813 | 61,272,813 |
2983dadf5c703dd8fbea2059e2617e0dfdd77b04 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x1d8c311369adc691f0ea33bf5c58fea1c6d9b1741aa563b2e7800445bb753418 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle United vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-newcastle-united-vs-southampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham United beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-west-ham-united-vs-aston-villa | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Alb... | no | 1 | epl-ipswich-town-vs-fulham | Will Ipswich Town beat Fulham? | 61,272,813 | 61,272,813 |
b4cf8c8984aa2747ad0770798b14ac3c8827bd78 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x349493eaa83541c888e6f62c65f1e4291a61d31f52059bd126349917e3d65959 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham United beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-west-ham-united-vs-aston-villa | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Albion beat Everton? | Event: epl-everton-vs-brighton-hove-albion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa beat West Ham Unit... | yes | 1 | epl-everton-vs-bournemouth | Will Bournemouth beat Everton? | 61,272,813 | 61,272,813 |
b0a32857db8752d4f7bea2118e049902fec93dc0 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x3751c787980a907636bc519da3785d2d327024a26973917770a17200b1c4e657 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Albion beat Everton? | Event: epl-everton-vs-brighton-hove-albion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa beat West Ham United? | Event: epl-west-ham-united-vs-aston-villa | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Colts vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-in... | yes | 1 | epl-nottingham-forest-vs-wolverhampton | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Wolverhampton end in a draw? | 61,272,813 | 61,272,813 |
c5d5d584094caad83c359bc0d5c375138a456256 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x9f86a6068ce81ec1ecc03b142da27a1659b497b4aaf50a2ac73749d8187ebd85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat West Ham United? | Event: epl-west-ham-united-vs-aston-villa | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Colts vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-ind-ari-2024-08-17 | Choice: cardinals | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Panthers vs. Jets | Event: nfl-car-nyj-2024-08-17 | Choice: jet... | no | 1 | epl-everton-vs-bournemouth | Will Everton beat Bournemouth? | 61,272,813 | 61,272,813 |
03ad98a61886e3ed2c449a8e46163708ab3f0b27 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xb3610e5149c4c9169e20af8d613bac4e001de9f98fff132b8dd365e03063c909 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Colts vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-ind-ari-2024-08-17 | Choice: cardinals | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Panthers vs. Jets | Event: nfl-car-nyj-2024-08-17 | Choice: jets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Titans vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-ten-sea-2024-08-17 | Choice: seahawks | Confidence: 0.0
4. Qu... | no | 1 | epl-brentford-vs-southampton | Will Brentford beat Southampton? | 61,272,813 | 61,272,813 |
62499b1953b5bc89d6a762f0270d145fa574bdb4 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x0f69c362da4dddd255e8bb6496a45190a2617037066dc401696e9e40a75a41f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panthers vs. Jets | Event: nfl-car-nyj-2024-08-17 | Choice: jets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Titans vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-ten-sea-2024-08-17 | Choice: seahawks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-matchday-1-chelsea-vs-man-city | C... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-united-vs-liverpool | Will Manchester United beat Liverpool? | 61,313,548 | 61,313,548 |
1befeff469325c37ec347d85dfff6d4aa30b5a31 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x4ebe440e11a1f4fca0b499a211d761694497c5d324a68dd051881346dba526eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Titans vs. Seahawks | Event: nfl-ten-sea-2024-08-17 | Choice: seahawks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-matchday-1-chelsea-vs-man-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-brentf... | no | 1 | epl-newcastle-vs-tottenham | Will Tottenham beat Newcastle? | 61,313,548 | 61,313,548 |
cface269f86cb93530a46ac0ffdc7e24cefdebb0 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xae59919d3f9c80ec9a6275fea57f1b81122ca0146a8188cc5d41769a0f546f66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-matchday-1-chelsea-vs-man-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-brentford-vs-crystal-palace | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leiceste... | yes | 1 | epl-newcastle-vs-tottenham | Will Newcastle beat Tottenham? | 61,313,548 | 61,313,548 |
5cd9336ce0d86f5d2305919e65cf8cc10c80cc8d | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xc54b43c12303b1701e5dfa816a83e7785f4695078e0c8c9ce971d5c1eebb18bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-brentford-vs-crystal-palace | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump posts 10-19 times on X? | Eve... | no | 1 | italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix? | 61,313,548 | 61,313,548 |
b3a45748e8d79b2d7c6da568a5c059d015e639ac | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xcc83fcd841ad88792f3b3d8615479bbff9a86b0504f660b730791d55ae9e5a70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Leicester City? | Event: epl-leicester-city-vs-tottenham-hotspur | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts 10-19 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump posts 20-29 times on X? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-west-ham-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat West Ham? | 61,313,548 | 61,313,548 |
32a47dbfd8a90655ae57d126ba6330430ba84347 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xf8e83c78f395da4baca6666063281a63b6b10a50a400a753116ea2b38d833426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts 10-19 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts 20-29 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump posts 30-39 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-o... | no | 1 | italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Italian Grand Prix? | 61,313,548 | 61,313,548 |
2fe67c088efc0a3cc6c801490b45658b2a183932 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xd045106d8b89c6753e701f3e50c254fa8cef89c0ee3aac7586af5706c1300275 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts 20-29 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts 30-39 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump posts 50-99 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-o... | no | 1 | epl-manchester-united-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat Manchester United? | 61,313,550 | 61,313,550 |
147ab8eba0dac1c6253cc2f0a5ee8bb32d943ecd | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x99ab744ce2f9b4e525d7782335659a9c60d1c1969dccf0a5f8c5fca1ea2212cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts 30-39 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts 50-99 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crysta... | no | 1 | cfb-usc-vs-lsu | Will LSU win by 5 or more points? | 61,350,392 | 61,350,392 |
15f46e816e6b04900d2af37066bd3659c6032aee | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x1de9e375f9324c12856867be8442dfa6ce4d7fcea0ed6d2a3e9316af31a9ed00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts 50-99 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brig... | yes | 0.22059 | what-will-kamala-say-at-the-debate | Will Kamala say "liar" at debate? | 61,428,261 | 61,428,261 |
8ca87338d22c4e41b509b7c43b3b23db742ea2f9 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x67fa536f0656849558b515fc5ea695dddb24a3677315c00517b25390ada9531d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-manchester-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat Southampton? | Event:... | chiefs | 0 | nfl-kc-bal-2024-09-05 | Chiefs vs. Ravens | 61,477,284 | 61,477,652 |
63a43cb4d68079915ce0552cf31a4a6291fd1dbb | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x0beb783fefc54365d058bd5df673ea302e72af63f8b5b51f63c0183c84dff9c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-manchester-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat Southampton? | Event: epl-southampton-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton beat Nottingham Fore... | no | 1 | chiefs-vs-ravens-first-td-scorer | Will Patrick Mahomes score the first TD? | 61,505,850 | 61,505,850 |
deceb16fd802c9419785f06caaa80fe32aa1aefc | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x380a3ccd687bc1a97dc04775bd424cb19765fcfbad9484c299a0a28a70d41fd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat Southampton? | Event: epl-southampton-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-southampton-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat West H... | yes | 1 | us-open-winner-w | Will Karolina Muchova win the US Open? | 61,505,850 | 61,505,850 |
34931f828a05f8c5e21774cb8d81c57a286828e8 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x41faebec94c871fdf3f7ec657265145dbb4ca9fa94d3c875d0d6a95e2fc98360 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-southampton-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat West Ham? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Ipswich Town? | ... | no | 1 | chiefs-vs-ravens-first-td-scorer | Will Derrick Henry score the first TD? | 61,505,850 | 61,505,850 |
db5c5f89f5fcb5dfa75b97d4c4456b6e28d104fa | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x69c3218c83667f9cd7fb7e1341eef1975ca37e4ee4950ee7f72d310369523862 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat West Ham? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat Everton? | Event: epl-to... | no | 1 | chiefs-vs-ravens-first-td-scorer | Will Lamar Jackson score the first TD? | 61,505,850 | 61,505,850 |
97e38f0ed06d0cc440d462a9c3b7dffe5bc9de62 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x1cfe4c0d72f97d676ad951374a8c527f28aef0e6adf682aca5f85da72d102938 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-ipswich-town | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham beat Everton? | Event: epl-tottenham-vs-everton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Arsenal? | Event: epl-aston-villa-v... | yes | 0.434513 | us-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open? | 61,507,883 | 61,558,934 |
7ef1850324835bf01bf8ac92e760f00fa680050f | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xabb102227925a54804e3bf05e074e8065251bd34d23ded396252118b891216aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Everton? | Event: epl-tottenham-vs-everton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Arsenal? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-arsenal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-arsenal | Choic... | eagles | 0 | nfl-phi-gb-2024-09-06 | Eagles vs. Packers | 61,517,498 | 61,517,663 |
3369430f115a8958d33d919010d8286957d810ac | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x662e8f0559be62c746988a4eb36433b49a6daf3f223050b98dee7837ff88bbf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Arsenal? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-arsenal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-bournemouth-vs-newcastle... | boise st | 0 | cfb-oregon-vs-boise-state | Will Oregon beat Boise State? | 61,560,392 | 61,578,393 |
1aade8c1601a4f07c8ab1c687ec1eee594271064 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xb1d986d7d0f3ad06f5d67750be77c3c576ae9744dcbd8abd6dfc676867d78517 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-bournemouth-vs-newcastle | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Brentford? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-brentford ... | no | 0.981589 | us-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open? | 61,626,018 | 61,626,018 |
b589224553b559befd9785f6668f615007263810 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x5906417c5adbafee37c4ecbb89a5ec860930a135d42a9f18ad1163ed7b08539a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-bournemouth-vs-newcastle | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Brentford? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea beat Wolverhampton? | Event: epl-wolverhampton-vs-chel... | 49ers | 0.000002 | nfl-sf-nyj-2024-09-09 | 49ers vs. Jets | 61,635,322 | 61,635,322 |
8a1084877833d299b77b39133504c894ca1a9c3c | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xcc0e6b0390b9876ec3fabfc8094197b8a5cdab4a85a3bb3600a9bee1daeb0f54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat Brentford? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-brentford | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea beat Wolverhampton? | Event: epl-wolverhampton-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2820316653453335
3. Question: CFB: North Carolina vs. Minnesota | Event: cfb-nort... | yes | 1 | nfl-week-1-how-many-points | Will there be 701-725 points scored NFL week 1? | 61,705,427 | 61,705,427 |
a2a2b75b899c27ecb0db842bd1a8666e39112d0e | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xca4898518746987457d80d96f7531b918414f8b1b9d361e6d011461d07201be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Wolverhampton? | Event: epl-wolverhampton-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2820316653453335
2. Question: CFB: North Carolina vs. Minnesota | Event: cfb-north-carolina-vs-minnesota | Choice: minnesota | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open?... | bills | 0 | nfl-mia-buf-2024-09-12 | Dolphins vs. Bills | 61,755,236 | 61,755,256 |
f64f15f49ee1516b4a4bd8b00fea1b8d4753833b | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x8c8e9f651cc6632e046c45dd5644ba3f785fe4f75aea55677e68d69e94aaa225 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: CFB: North Carolina vs. Minnesota | Event: cfb-north-carolina-vs-minnesota | Choice: minnesota | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open? | Event: us-open-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4944172972982161
3. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open? | Event:... | yes | 1 | epl-southampton-vs-manchester-united | Will Manchester United beat Southampton? | 61,821,409 | 61,821,409 |
86b6e10e7a67e86659c8ff25b95d881132704e1c | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x9e3e977e490922b6cee1ec183356bb905afd182c2f9f0dd5594b49830f7549e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open? | Event: us-open-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4944172972982161
2. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open? | Event: us-open-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton beat Brentford? | Event: epl-brentford-vs-sout... | yes | 1 | epl-tottenham-vs-arsenal | Will Tottenham beat Arsenal? | 61,873,981 | 61,873,981 |
44eee135ea17e1cba66f862358adca1a21dcbd6b | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xb386cfbbd9cf4e419bdb3674af8c4781d615491ff8005885231be83fefa11aca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open? | Event: us-open-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton beat Brentford? | Event: epl-brentford-vs-southampton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Fulham? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-fulham | ... | yes | 1 | azerbijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 61,873,981 | 61,873,981 |
3337cca9181b4c617dfb420f49f95e203f9f90f1 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0x23ca45f3ad272003d75919c30d9da641cdd6ec7b86e864397f80d90347ae5939 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton beat Brentford? | Event: epl-brentford-vs-southampton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Fulham? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-fulham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth beat Everton? | Event: epl-everton-vs-bournemouth... | no | 1 | ucl-juventus-vs-psv | Will Juventus vs. PSV end in a draw? | 61,987,894 | 61,987,894 |
859b01ccfc2daf3dc9a264684130f2f6699802da | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xa16a7e38e3ff0cdd9fadfe0813dbfc18e8ed11d7629dfcd70c1dd123c4d91835 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich Town beat Fulham? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-fulham | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth beat Everton? | Event: epl-everton-vs-bournemouth | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Wolverhampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-n... | yes | 1 | ucl-ac-milan-vs-liverpool | Will AC Milan beat Liverpool? | 61,987,894 | 61,987,894 |
eddbd42fc4412c578b5c3c21281d7e1987cff844 | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xad29e5412f67490411607e34375e097f8ad756f4fa47f9c4c445afa74fe9af18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth beat Everton? | Event: epl-everton-vs-bournemouth | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Wolverhampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-wolverhampton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton beat Bournemouth? |... | no | 1 | ucl-ac-milan-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat AC Milan? | 61,987,894 | 61,987,894 |
b6b6902c07e284cb4ef2988e8b57ad87ace0f15e | 0x2f91c1361fd87957c93bc5fa560053a15b0a907f | 0xdc65133698d961ae1feef4cad9f19f4d38e49b07e6d65abe8dce0d9e7e164d29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Wolverhampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-nottingham-forest-vs-wolverhampton | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-everton-vs-bournemouth | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford beat Southampton? ... | no | 1 | ucl-ac-milan-vs-liverpool | Will AC Milan vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 61,987,894 | 61,987,894 |
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