sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e4b1c5198a7e4dfa1ca65681b81f4c47314b95d3 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x2170d7bdb33ff734b5c918a49da6c51446e930f96663e51490c47798d686bea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | efl-ful-wyc-2025-10-28 | Will Fulham FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,299,179 | 78,299,179 |
9f692ea9dd9825b5c1f6b4ba3b4c835c990fb1d6 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x10b4bc6ecee34b8f0842e4937e958f3fda8bff7a99e5977e4c1d706517ff7038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | dfb-stp-hof-2025-10-28 | Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-10-28? | 78,299,181 | 78,299,181 |
50f91b5785d92fcb35833bf57f7b62aafd961a2f | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x5dbda95931355b10b46dafae9c5f1c2490989785607c665331b8563f5410f1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | dfb-stp-hof-2025-10-28 | Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-28? | 78,299,183 | 78,299,183 |
6fd304f2e1fb96a576a9841aa9bfe26455d445df | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0xdf272769715fdee7c16a3b395fa68f6351ecae9682403f0be7693a21c53c4f9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,318,970 | 78,318,970 |
2a00d74d789fa65a9b7c760681e038aef0a81713 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x98dc91397709b89c10b5102955e3e7cfba449cc7c76c6e68db9245e9c8ccf72b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | chi-ron-hen-2025-10-31 | Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? | 78,412,560 | 78,412,560 |
06e354acc2a698655d7f2efd0b65812e8f209614 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x749f479c4f5498a13b66d6d96ce75e2ce83fe7c2b3cf054efdd56101b7b653f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | chi-ron-hen-2025-10-31 | Will Henan FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,412,563 | 78,412,563 |
ac02b68b0acb1585bf652b8fc9c514d1a176b03e | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x84d962b375c420dddd5ecb86e5173c3cda219f5f0b27d25c3c506df21fd6c0b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 31? | 78,418,006 | 78,418,006 |
ef747e5d7fcb08b3d290e4b41c8af076ba2bdebd | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x7bed87a7817e89069456bdfd554ef19c16dbeffeef57273490f24a48a7e017b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-10-31? | 78,425,184 | 78,425,184 |
192d9e27616f26cf9b8c58eb76785850977a15ad | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x663fd9ca1a75cd48235d87920a56211e94d51af322fc3ad4eacad1f2c9db15d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | mls-por-sdg-2025-11-01 | Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,523,846 | 78,523,846 |
aca28c92bdf8eadd1ade19bd54d347ee0d015d3f | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0xf34c6a1bca63576f19968baac0e22b62776617fde5147fb8a3a7d735acff6e11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | tur-ala-gfk-2025-11-03 | Will Alanyaspor win on 2025-11-03? | 78,552,951 | 78,552,951 |
b4815bfc1bf29a980cd560570ece9e2262bba66a | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x8b45f08fbff489e90b5e5a4aad91d644b531ae11018240ace19019d87309ad2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | tur-riz-kar-2025-11-03 | Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2025-11-03? | 78,552,955 | 78,552,955 |
68b7a0b418a742048bdd9e05b53da0a3dc0a90f3 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x9a16a9e521b8522cdf18d3baa35babdedefd65bc0d52fc739a3b94c967d6bef2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | epl-sun-eve-2025-11-03 | Will Everton win on 2025-11-03? | 78,558,335 | 78,558,335 |
a928aa7951bcadd3296159f70bfa5fc65c523518 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0xa32e0338903d2b35d49a41059f00053350e2684e1fb7b20150beb7067b635658 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | epl-sun-eve-2025-11-03 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? | 78,558,337 | 78,558,337 |
a6d2cfb9f7c62c2b009ecb657b3d41c919148be2 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0xa89f4697c755cef7afe33d032ce011376b6ea8265c8bbb72e0b3c2022889f49e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-osa-2025-11-03 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-11-03? | 78,558,340 | 78,558,340 |
00698df34d64137d09f4d848b754eaa6ce56e53a | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0xf6c62ab563d147278675d996fadb4fcbc93c07d11de255fad95cc28a52f0d36e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | tur-bes-fen-2025-11-02 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-02? | 78,558,342 | 78,558,342 |
2d0e9315cf3d5531d719fc2a02f351a45063b2df | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x154b39b0a0367fc042246fde432ee3aa9e16072a7667d8d625034d2f40a60a59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | arg-ban-lan-2025-11-03 | Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-03? | 78,658,586 | 78,658,586 |
bb576c4de069fe888faaff600734cc42e54bc536 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x5ed7a09045e911e492378899bf5a32a439521befbe186b66961f35156bdf4ec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | f1-brazilian-grand-prix-sprint-qualifying-pole-winner-2025-11-07 | Will Lando Norris achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | 78,746,577 | 78,746,577 |
66a5e4f3b0427ce7dd1af38ba82a466373ed651b | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x7463f9473af4aae11da78f94dd46097ebde20267764b4a02fefa04b92f517833 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bur-2025-11-08 | Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,765,349 | 78,765,349 |
328c4d1f0b988fe3898b7164088370e0922c070c | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0xcf769a93eab8beac86d12aecc7150984785a59131da35c70844487ae473f5023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Will Atletico Madrid vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | 78,768,930 | 78,768,930 |
25affb14d98609cb89407746ff28c76bacd8f96b | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x02845376345cabf28fd8f90707ecf97d298e13c8555909ce6b75bbf66653b7a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-isl-2025-11-13 | Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? | 78,984,905 | 78,984,905 |
6eb48ad660ce5682d5e15454403ebb36efa1e510 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0xc66ab4ea9b3838ceb5c43ed86b49243a9ae2e846331a876a164ebea249187f20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Will England win on 2025-11-13? | 79,035,265 | 79,035,265 |
384e4cccc0f4d47dccf121ec314021adef99408b | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x345b689321562b66c9a2ba4cf19976a3a310e6f558aa26c5a31d25834c261915 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Will France win on 2025-11-13? | 79,035,267 | 79,035,267 |
a6376439daccdc71505cf057a33788d5572a78e3 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x32046c049bbd4ede7d4642991aea5dca1fbdfcb8edb919f236fe616548d97cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-bol-2025-11-14 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? | 79,035,269 | 79,035,269 |
6f52fd9f893642a54f92cb1ba7d559bb25829d9d | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x065bec39cc8ec2e19dcd899e2b4fc664d0aba4bdd2f840032f97e7948d000ece | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | uef-fin-mal-2025-11-14 | Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,035,271 | 79,035,271 |
682097f81023c1cf1035004e3b320bcbcdf44523 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x83e896ff81e3073200ee4129868852747be397bcccce75df687c1d5a4b9ac847 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: c... | no | 1 | fif-col-nzl-2025-11-15 | Will New Zealand win on 2025-11-15? | 79,083,839 | 79,083,839 |
ad2662495a5be3ceaa2086f5bc6c22de6da17f2b | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x24485b83fa4b2ef2f0873ba3f07e11dbfc4c9d7db166f5a37e4d271c1066ab34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | Event: mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-atl-bur-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-... | no | 1 | test-ind-sou-2025-11-14 | Will the match end in a draw? | 79,094,643 | 79,094,643 |
488a4eb3da6d540112594e86646b7c0bcd2a4cff | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x1ad83a2c1a144370c3e32ca469211d248b246de569c5fa4d3338e7fc0f764a98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Atlético Tordesillas win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-atl-bur-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb... | no | 1 | test-ind-sou-2025-11-14 | Will India win? | 79,094,648 | 79,094,648 |
10255af96a7d179e5a3b25c972ae0db421452865 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x7c8ff2a6ce0beee4b48d9d3a148a836279c376c31aeae1cdd6fdcc1ea585fd38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-fce-rbl-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Albacete Balompié win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-san-a... | no | 1 | bra-pal-vit-2025-11-19 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-19? | 79,253,033 | 79,253,033 |
6d5b47318467aef4b5f5fee16cb6d0a891ee3bd7 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x6693186b775382538986330bfee6938b243acf7bb9f8c20d358d0458c1d476aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-fce-rbl-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Albacete Balompié win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-san-alb-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-ful-wyc-... | yes | 1 | elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,364,653 | 79,364,653 |
7c9ec69ae957d7f827665a2b97605cc7bec67630 | 0x2fd82efa363a309dbef2f488885f98e8a98a3a70 | 0x7cf0f34759e339e454ede0f2232bf93b792d259f95d2de17f0b6061c9ca0c3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Albacete Balompié win on 2025-10-28? | Event: cdr-san-alb-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-ful-wyc-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-stp-hof-2... | no | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,364,655 | 79,364,655 |
fcf9972587e9a3dfa59fd473007bb4d841f6a249 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x8fab12fce156a99c30767b6983eddcef367be2c887a4df069387b1501acec063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Spain win?
Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Will Spain win? | 59,190,529 | 59,190,529 |
dc8b36f703d813f91acfefb895de84d278818d31 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x9d025e08116bdebccf99fdff9eb7de1468216093b7b3a3f3c402290c5fb42c02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the match be a draw?
Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rati... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Will the match be a draw? | 59,190,550 | 59,190,550 |
76e46a5669d669230df4e3fb09354a2ce8143413 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xa27054bac8fd64c62fdcfed28e899983e5da93feb4c6db785e4cf41a4cd25a96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will France win?
Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france
Predict the user's choice a... | no | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Will France win? | 59,190,561 | 59,190,561 |
0b3636cfc50478b761aada1c816c71ecd8c76a3c | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x90dbcd0cf65fd0190bd463f4f429b5df2df51d6c916e350a4ed014d94b988935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target ... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will England win the 2024 Euros? | 59,666,401 | 59,666,401 |
bd56cfcf01536f32ac84a946ea49ea5e9fe2c1ca | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xd6f4c41fd20b8c6d5b48d528ead981d8fdf3da99d05018443e2d5bc60085e3dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 63,944,841 | 63,944,841 |
1919a737cc2de65e950831b69a4a04d1e1f43312 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,966,399 | 63,966,399 |
7d60ce5f9fa5b3eb1d5f2813a04c47037be08c33 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xcd1b6b71a1964f15e2c14809594cbfa0d576270e8ef94c8c24913121097e09e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 64,476,901 | 64,476,901 |
8c1461e261275c082c8d373ff71418f4c46feaab | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,476,914 | 64,476,914 |
66c38fcc93c8b6b560c708c0ff82fd2ab20110a2 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x02bc0bbff054877a08cdc4f9ccf4e7606804bc05c27f5faccf26c6e1666a5558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 64,476,944 | 64,476,944 |
19116ad517865949e4790ac9025e75a7e9ce6575 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xa923afcb8297e3ade170f2f8c088f3c277557fadef2c67054d72cc59f8504b2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 64,476,947 | 64,476,947 |
8592dece8f47180771c63ad3d87b7e0f862bce73 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x7f0283796b1ad832d61fd74e2c27347227c75cbc56c7013e5cb0b7c76ee01912 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 0.652374 | epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23? | 64,644,436 | 64,644,436 |
0a98acb3f28365db3c228105c5039982e7934b26 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x0c240af653dd31badb0e0f41df310bab4ef67424892a33ed51c93846598f3fb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-ful-wol-2024-11-23 | Will Fulham win on 2024-11-23? | 64,681,701 | 64,681,701 |
5c73095e53e030443908db014f1c536e7cd40f42 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x26e24df1c16939eb62a8fe3657b069e4aa4a35975935e83be45b3cfc3009be72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? | 64,681,711 | 64,681,711 |
25440bef49fcc8bd02c35920d083f03bca836cb9 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xb9cdb8065bddc75c57418315df6521b5a39ac8876b50f44f0f7b17f530d3abbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? | 64,681,726 | 64,681,726 |
abe28f1f9647099f7d717444bb0efe975a1e368c | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xa8dc96421055dba1fe74373b86415e4332ffba25ab4408fb4faf18c96b8e9ec3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | ucl-sporting-cp-vs-arsenal | Will Sporting CP beat Arsenal? | 64,791,008 | 64,791,008 |
d954b9e5cad0a8c75ea6d12d8a0f957b41a1df3a | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x5b8289a8c04610e8f7e0cbb03578418176d02b63ba97d9e93d49e230ea670889 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | bears | 1 | nfl-chi-det-2024-11-28 | Bears vs. Lions | 64,851,484 | 64,851,484 |
338311c82bd07bab7aa51226192f89ebfd53a425 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x0168b53efbac5533e6e43d6fb35936258b27fdbcc350f5c22dfe416fd6511892 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Liverpool vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 64,967,570 | 64,967,570 |
f4914c552d2a69429d28c93ddc87e19335e99209 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x6b326acfd92e249ff13165fb716ce81476ebe98497283a783a73b5e426470606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 0.996212 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | 64,967,570 | 64,967,570 |
508c975256fae05f9bc13e800bf201a42db5f272 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xcc4967c95c90fa7138b5197a27a2748c3432191783de2f8b4021212c80548dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | 64,967,570 | 64,967,570 |
cba1c21b448837edb2c534230d9a2425048709e8 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x6880627d60c1c1b4831ff77628892550a1cba0166c0fe1f4af32e486487d499a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 0.97782 | epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | 65,247,103 | 65,247,103 |
1191694c5b87954c0aa62b95cb01fb242ae1f56e | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xda6393faea28fe349192278ce55a40400840c5820ac4a272cd5a737754cbcdde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-15? | 65,527,663 | 65,527,663 |
fedfa6dfa118464d2673457a92fc500e81865fc5 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xfafebf74590538c2a145609240bbba810d491b742cb02a816b38ef5f6c9eec1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | 65,527,663 | 65,527,663 |
778bd66c4ea26b805de73cc2199057e15550fafb | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x6282c5942bd77010eb7b3a08b598a681b407afed27f112aa73a1cf52952c1e91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | bucks | 1 | nba-cup-final-thunder-vs-bucks | NBA Cup Final: Thunder vs. Bucks | 65,649,700 | 65,649,700 |
64d4d099347bcaa443b966eead9ebd739e39b5c5 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xf956e916e9e29e8140b7bb5dc9c0a0eba6f85ac8da1e46ab7370772f62a0332c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | usyk-vs-fury-2 | Will Usyk beat Fury? | 65,776,325 | 65,776,325 |
8bccfd65a872ddab38e171bc108f78a12017ad97 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x74a4f98027d0df96f393c4b5ec32b4a5ce3a67945450c5b8553cf26fc56555c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | suns | 1 | nba-phx-ind-2025-01-04 | Suns vs. Pacers | 66,321,235 | 66,321,235 |
9f91db2fe1dfeb1e382ba97611e47b7b041cd20e | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x989df6a334b7eec20398a0ca8cd22841683b637092d4cb769257907db45cd542 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | patriots | 1 | nfl-buf-ne-2025-01-05 | Bills vs. Patriots | 66,351,207 | 66,351,207 |
89b43e419a9d2d3442796c956f4eb4676464afd9 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xa4da4790dd4968377ddc10386b5d0c71779633d221ba2be9258738d4523c58e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | broncos | 1 | nfl-den-buf-2025-01-12 | Broncos vs. Bills | 66,626,742 | 66,626,742 |
ef7b79f14db91e9426155877a6e7324b4e19f3b1 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x103a30b19e91833eeaf8b86f625f8287de2ead670f050370f908bd852fc5515c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | lakers | 1 | nba-bkn-lal-2025-01-17 | Nets vs. Lakers | 66,852,709 | 66,852,709 |
ed78fae6e555038f9c5dc1a294410351733720af | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x04d5e75c920683705a89a85a62a01cf842fbbaf5e0c78e302fc1371aa052afa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 1 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? | 67,175,388 | 67,175,388 |
204c1c627d0c7f762505a492c088bf0c95d38550 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xa5f0c941d36a811cad77ecf6e3b0ccdceaa42457530a7ed73128c89b9e616ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 0.379291 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Alexander Zverev win the Australian Open? | 67,175,388 | 67,175,388 |
fad0acc510c958f187b19db723a3ede9cf1b3e24 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x103e0759fd5ebb462a8c7739e5a1fe843d1627dbb2048ce8119a4f32623d793e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | rockets | 1 | nba-hou-mia-2025-03-21 | Rockets vs. Heat | 69,372,284 | 69,372,284 |
80f980ed61aea71fe1083dd5cefadf64897c31d2 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x4c8671f138b4b57538188e4c50466cd67f7b69993eb38368a005593153eb25f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | timberwolves | 1 | nba-nop-min-2025-03-21 | Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | 69,372,284 | 69,372,284 |
b3b4cff4a3d010af4ff3c670605277014065f308 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xaddbe5e33280fce84e8cccad438d3a7bba9b69c9beb664388767d32f6eb2d3da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win? | Event: euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nomine... | yes | 1 | f1-china-grand-prix-winner-2025 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? | 69,408,940 | 69,408,940 |
0e9ff023f92c7ff066b1312a1f039ec306bad6a3 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x68dac65c24b962829f3a3219f4444b2c88da7325acf100b91378023488dea20b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US President... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? | 71,262,730 | 71,262,730 |
ef27c0a396fddf70dbfcc815f48dc191295c9ba5 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x6ce05080ff71b1d932a06782151fef5c1381f95057f88f2de10b6fec8a5d83d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | 2025-iihf-world-championship-544 | Will Canada win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? | 71,869,871 | 71,869,871 |
c7bcb0cc89b9ef7f3ca11ae5d83e2377c9ff0a09 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x4c572e3f257497e743b18847b43e71900356c33754e885665a28737fc431987c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Con... | musetti | 1 | french-open-musetti-vs-alcaraz | French Open: Musetti vs. Alcaraz | 72,475,533 | 72,475,533 |
cf2c551a58cb53bf3b3950050f13d2ec5bcf180c | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x19ed7346bd4f3459077bdcee47b4682eb0212791e4b30f6dd13ecdbe0e410e42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 0.994018 | 2025-french-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open? | 72,517,014 | 72,517,014 |
8c36c9ed15226b3df1c936790c1c0c81cd0c2b3f | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xd61ebc4c71f69bf98a9fe153f515df1d9a88ab3f2106032a1878931e03b1ae1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,916,668 | 73,916,668 |
66f4aeee8d6487a44285b864f61d137fc52aebe7 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xc45f6f5fcbc814bdcaf46b16eccfec63cef615cc364d75ad3f49f74e0afd3615 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | 74,041,888 | 74,041,888 |
625077b6945fa78f8454067ef6fec8a0d1e004ef | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x6208bf7c62b0d806e6e37ebdf992a56893270a7ba3659a864c2d65580055a1f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6523736347262843
3. Question: Will Fulham win ... | pegula | 0.284204 | us-open-aryna-sabalenka-vs-jessica-pegula-2025-09-04 | US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula | 76,065,934 | 76,065,934 |
4f20a3c22e95ed5fa46bfee8c7112b53fec53a1d | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x2e92e17f4c018c855c033fd47a0e8d4817435eb9619331aee85e6ce565e0b4ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6523736347262843
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 ... | anisimova | 0 | us-open-naomi-osaka-vs-amanda-anisimova-2025-09-04 | US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimova | 76,065,934 | 76,084,108 |
004a6014f8005dfaea4f516646f3675ff3c023dc | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x5d431b964aa4221c3cdb2285146671879c4a78018077ebb6bd682ef06e627b2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | C... | cowboys | 0 | nfl-dal-phi-2025-09-04 | Cowboys vs. Eagles | 76,065,934 | 76,084,108 |
a6a9efd4ffadab7005b3b43cbfcbbe8e1a41eb0b | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xa2293f6520cdd32f5e709fadfd195a0c3771fb299e1e5e95ea09d1893126234d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sporting CP beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-arsenal | Choice: no... | james madison | 0.857305 | cfb-jmu-lou-2025-09-05 | James Madison vs. Louisville | 76,105,617 | 76,105,617 |
4b002365f2ee6ad7ad09bc0fcaf9993bbf3d94e3 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x800439094b33b59a2906cc90043818d4e35d1df87ae4995ac5f7d7b00a8494b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sporting CP beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bears vs. Lions | Event: nfl-chi-det-2024-11-28 | Choice: bears | Confiden... | chargers | 0 | nfl-kc-lac-2025-09-05 | Chiefs vs. Chargers | 76,105,617 | 76,129,467 |
4e75b53580157f784451209770ed6f2c21b47e58 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x87d31295ac1925a7e6e3a53a28aa88bbb54aa539c52e81f758e41667d05dd3bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sporting CP beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bears vs. Lions | Event: nfl-chi-det-2024-11-28 | Choice: bears | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Cho... | ruffy | 0 | ufc-fight-night-imavov-vs-borralho | UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy | 76,139,515 | 76,139,515 |
332c8531961c116b481619dbd4394387235d2d8a | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xd007477fe321c37b5c6818ea65849bda729c2658cd75fad681a829ccde29ad86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bears vs. Lions | Event: nfl-chi-det-2024-11-28 | Choice: bears | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Cho... | smu | 0.230542 | cfb-bay-smu-2025-09-06 | Baylor vs. SMU | 76,139,515 | 76,139,515 |
6480dd02b572388ada33e92e5c6bc62799adfea6 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xde47f9805fda3917cdb8fe0f878e47137a25f4a588f8de87681421b57b1dd320 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9962124213407382
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? |... | iowa | 0.367944 | cfb-iowa-isu-2025-09-06 | Iowa vs. Iowa State | 76,139,515 | 76,139,515 |
9a576cdef6a9ff67d3b3bbf81cd10f354d415c74 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x86d184970a652775995622f72d9b7b5f4b87f3209f65048db39bd3b0516cd263 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9962124213407382
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-... | jones | 0 | ufc-fight-night-imavov-vs-borralho | UFC Fight Night: Oki vs. Jones | 76,139,515 | 76,144,029 |
fce32a428cce94ebd6ab979141a03108c7b70ef4 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x8e06429895fcc56323f151543aeec613395992a5e41a09cc00aae8b00589c713 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9778199599039997
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-15? | Event: ... | kentucky | 0 | cfb-miss-uk-2025-09-06 | Ole Miss vs. Kentucky | 76,139,515 | 76,170,142 |
40abf0b60a37a25486cb8cf525145854fb42ee36 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x1d18947ecdac256beb7f7a87d8d1372b13991e31ae74c0eddfe4c7d222048fc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9778199599039997
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: ... | under | 0.998842 | nfl-min-chi-2025-09-08 | Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 43.5 | 76,226,230 | 76,226,230 |
7e7b98433777e6499f6b2e1051b395a88055bd23 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xd4cf0aec58a81982ef375d7a3112468d245dae62eec65ce074ad59f3c9d194ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: NBA Cup Final: Thunder vs. Bucks | Event: nba-cup-final-th... | bears | 0 | nfl-min-chi-2025-09-08 | Vikings vs. Bears | 76,226,230 | 76,241,090 |
e4062df6b4bb7109acb92cc5d8077f2c9528b42f | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x9e7c130fb42833e3a72b4fbb013a5119ed7d6fc06c986a19cb3f016e276ae622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: NBA Cup Final: Thunder vs. Bucks | Event: nba-cup-final-thunder-vs-bucks | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: no... | rams | 0 | nfl-la-ten-2025-09-14 | Rams vs. Titans | 76,447,798 | 76,455,663 |
3ca49f84a30ee7d92c45eed6c755ca3d1bd0bdf2 | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0x2209d272f45481a4815f9311d94067c2cb2b932546298368f2a3322275169fc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NBA Cup Final: Thunder vs. Bucks | Event: nba-cup-final-thunder-vs-bucks | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Suns vs. Pacers | Event: nba-phx-ind-2025-01-04 | Choice: suns | Confidence: 1.0
4. ... | 49ers | 0 | nfl-sf-no-2025-09-14 | 49ers vs. Saints | 76,448,169 | 76,455,601 |
465c147b43d8071cb9e17e292ad4b964645389fd | 0x2fe6d3037aab8ca66fc3a43918d9028a601aab9d | 0xbaeed5f2c31695be7bfbed65abe9b1e1abd30090b0837fc4dc1f238c41c99c23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Suns vs. Pacers | Event: nba-phx-ind-2025-01-04 | Choice: suns | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bills vs. Patriots | Event: nfl-buf-ne-2025-01-05 | Choice: patriots | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question: Broncos vs... | chiefs | 0 | nfl-phi-kc-2025-09-14 | Eagles vs. Chiefs | 76,459,527 | 76,459,527 |
5bf0ff0369e0ab0ca4fd809ef64ed8501cc6f7d1 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x54eff4c60c8b11048ba974f9bb96234b682c2c565b645b4edecc6234c5ae5cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Eagles vs. Falcons
Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | falcons | 1 | nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Eagles vs. Falcons | 61,923,571 | 61,923,571 |
9aa3a3f5c60cd4feb4f2b066d0922feb20c874a2 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0xadda4879290f9b82aefe818f4ae02106990fa0cf77e4f0ff6c2070e75a7b1308 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington?
Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..... | washington | 1 | cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Will Rutgers beat Washington? | 62,386,648 | 62,386,648 |
07b928187e5940b5be4f5cdfcac2d72c9295bf84 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x1849423e25bc7d7a811b86110e086d38808e2e8b5b1e49e6a6ef64491de544dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Washington beat Michigan?
Event: cfb-washington-vs-michiga... | washington | 1 | cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Will Washington beat Michigan? | 62,710,666 | 62,710,666 |
790540d146fc6063ea5d1f3d96b5396162d1f4e9 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x53763009874bb078f4e7898835bdc9c92d8398183cad6795113008b632da69e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | no | 1 | epl-chelsea-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea? | 62,761,979 | 62,761,979 |
5e3830ca652f7993931754e3d5259b69336e652b | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0xf948de37d9852fda726e5e8fbc5953cd02c4ee9dccdca83d31a5ce1a4d446b28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | saints | 0.886159 | nfl-tb-no-2024-10-13 | Buccaneers vs. Saints | 63,004,653 | 63,004,653 |
a619ddfa4e69cfb724ec7789d3c0e5dd315585a8 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x769a3c9cba0a4e1fca8a39e44777ff7fdb65f44f7b95ab89c33bc117ba0e588f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | maryland | 1 | cfb-usc-vs-maryland | Will USC beat Maryland? | 63,254,580 | 63,254,580 |
72efc799d901eb19eccd06fcc59dd9a8d686f697 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0xe19cacabbfec26ce4048f557bcf59f6e239a2bf4c24d58b96e70e815741f1cef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | tennessee | 1 | cfb-alabama-vs-tennessee | Will Alabama beat Tennessee? | 63,259,850 | 63,259,850 |
9bf6fabc7c111e8e68c7bf945ce4c731d9dcff23 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0xe10bb1c98f18449680da98896491e46ac6670f1825cc9c2461bcbfee5a54e102 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | louisville | 1 | cfb-miami-vs-louisville | Will Miami beat Louisville? | 63,290,179 | 63,290,179 |
0aec49fe844a1591912b3311dbe62d64e93e1aa7 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x45fc777937f3b36150bdcac509ce74006ebf0b26916dc4a525d4ec83896f0ab5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | patriots | 1 | nfl-ne-ten-2024-11-03 | Patriots vs. Titans | 63,854,070 | 63,854,070 |
a5e10efbeef3c80a210ab7c23d72d234d00d5365 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x98e59eebc6b4cd0f0af69b5b133543c261e25ba6512ad5470c92e5e1abc667e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | panthers | 1 | nfl-no-car-2024-11-03 | Saints vs. Panthers | 63,855,012 | 63,855,012 |
62844f45f2960025199abd76010f375799a8cc1f | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x22e400b00b8cf1f3d46d39c1754a07803891e654863f7279df519df515ff2d1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | bills | 1 | nfl-mia-buf-2024-11-03 | Dolphins vs. Bills | 63,855,017 | 63,855,017 |
9580308c1c1e6518c99200b0ea6d40de8d2cf898 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0xbb0eca3e0381100707fea124fc9bfebdd32288361ee875e139347a225cc403f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | browns | 1 | nfl-lac-cle-2024-11-03 | Chargers vs. Browns | 63,855,030 | 63,855,030 |
95f60edf1ddb743b065e89e49d8d85356e3ee0f3 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x5a23b8f93c1812d528aff714c73d28877384662aba86e2e88c69ef2b848eb78d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | cowboys | 0.046448 | nfl-dal-atl-2024-11-03 | Cowboys vs. Falcons | 63,855,036 | 63,855,036 |
622250c6e5a5dd5d33c1d7963ec155f4ccfc69db | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x0a331f133a9c8c5e00cc01bb08946909da77964d74f29e7fc4c75a729e1d715e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | hornets | 1 | nba-det-cha-2024-11-06 | Pistons vs. Hornets | 63,999,785 | 63,999,785 |
dbf7fc70d405b065b33d08afc6c9ad15b8704f20 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x322a7d2d1bc4eb8f657cbd413d0df31605a6694930281b75cedd8f379eab7942 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | pacers | 1 | nba-orl-ind-2024-11-06 | Magic vs. Pacers | 63,999,821 | 63,999,821 |
34162d1f9001d8738bf7ac2a77a4a54e1304e327 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x78ef5ad262eb09709943d6857cfbee0dc1ea9e97bdb4377f6038e656e610470b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | thunder | 1 | nba-okc-den-2024-11-06 | Thunder vs. Nuggets | 63,999,831 | 63,999,831 |
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