sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a681e4b277c02e84b231d137653e63eccc0b6c75 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x3d1f00d646ec046ef13fd985346fe72a72f2ca4bed78211ea628dbc88faa2010 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | knicks | 1 | nba-nyk-atl-2024-11-06 | Knicks vs. Hawks | 64,000,550 | 64,000,550 |
e00712b28e60bc7384ea3edf405f32da55a420d5 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x8f9d217ecb42848aa8e9dd5f99340c1da4711d676996607c72ee0f52f3e28a65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | celtics | 1 | nba-gsw-bos-2024-11-06 | Warriors vs. Celtics | 64,000,570 | 64,000,570 |
2cb9f057dff13ece9e319b14c17c97a272f0a104 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x2625511fbb00c0f95efe176552960e60cb36211dc205dec952d38b072c2dc323 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | no | 1 | europa-league-frankfurt-vs-slavia-praha | Will Frankfurt beat Slavia Praha? | 64,012,929 | 64,012,929 |
783c54368872bdb4799fc03d41db45686af73a1c | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0xb37e76356ee6779bc6118e6a767af020a46f787745c4382fcaa795853cc5eb2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | bucks | 1 | nba-uta-mil-2024-11-07 | Jazz vs. Bucks | 64,023,085 | 64,023,085 |
76be8eb4bc4c9200587a416c0f9271cb61f96c80 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x3fbafdd1827fb96eb0b601477649189ecd52a6a098ae79c0ca9a7ea827c6133b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | no | 1 | europa-league-ludogorets-vs-athletic-bilbao | Will the match between Ludogorets and Athletic Bilbao end in a draw? | 64,054,253 | 64,054,253 |
1cf98fd8be9de9bea41db4919ea035cef9c395d8 | 0x2ff0e36eb9632a47c3eb75224bba1f141a6346e3 | 0x67ce4e2ac5a91125ae4a0c5d0d2dc7908cf0b3c8bfd30e58397a19f71c76bd83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Eagles vs. Falcons | Event: nfl-phi-atl-2024-09-16 | Choice: falcons | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rutgers beat Washington? | Event: cfb-rutgers-vs-washington | Choice: washington | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Washington beat Michigan? | Event: cfb-washington-vs-michigan | Choice:... | utah | 1 | cfb-utah-vs-byu | CFB: Utah vs. BYU | 64,122,555 | 64,122,555 |
1e57929f10a7de01294ecdf363631c763a2aff33 | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xaee3e76efdcd304786aa68bb879a2624b1ae2e1e258083ecbf3a2d2d07f0576d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March?
Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | 69,104,626 | 69,104,626 |
ee2020899d0dcb05da587ed0d3ba021ba3360667 | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xe866a5c8e9ba90086e8dbb93acd5d6b2275ca4b4a61956383c8fd999077255c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February?
Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february
Predict the user's choice ... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | 69,104,626 | 69,104,626 |
a123a951630df4d25b55a76ab638e817d6d03a31 | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xf0f0702539d88e8f5496570a7ffc02d1536bffa53b1285883437d45ae919f1e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? | 69,104,626 | 69,104,626 |
2615a9973424ab36f2c2ef131bc0579aec098c6b | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x1eb26de87ed3d7366b5bdf4e2c406da8814c3fec9d38a6a6292fc27825ae0516 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | novocaine-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? | 69,715,070 | 69,715,070 |
4f125a0730e0ab55a3d492d1c4b767f2cc0bd4bb | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x6ff3e122cb49d36cb6cbf3bd524d0bf1b508bb35793d1ed349f9c69a6a606a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Will Donald Trump sign 10-14 executive orders in March? | 69,715,070 | 69,715,070 |
ea781076232e53799e680803e3f85d0c095b1df1 | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xb2fa39d42a3ba26818b154674948187af10b1049f5d2eccfa1e83f3fec30307d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? | 69,715,070 | 69,715,070 |
69b771dd4c82239c8bc7fb4734883955846bb6f3 | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xeed6da09683149b433aeb802bd8d3f78a6b6d8799fa75bd0d73c3f87c6b2b592 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | 69,715,070 | 69,715,070 |
c4164ecd9490c3cc83ccc96ec631f418ad341640 | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xef5604329fee713a68f4faa9d3014614c7486525864a11f2ebb054179a0c362e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | 69,715,070 | 69,715,070 |
61bf6bae40a1381391f12f5c23f26f2686b062ac | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x40d7f992374755e3fbc80db6ba154b52be421d39bb9097ebbcb7e644e35af0c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? | 70,312,628 | 70,312,628 |
2a5a92617e081d6f462be54ee64e1d254ff1ed3e | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x433ca79a20d282515085571e802680423b0131ff8dc84ee4a4d83ebc0cec0ed1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | march-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in March 2025? | 70,312,628 | 70,312,628 |
5cfb6431080ee0f30a3ea5da495a9481482b365c | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x6217c64e6b26a7d8dbea2546838886d9ac9bba4ed8a1cf3e4b37893ff2ed5fbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? | 70,312,628 | 70,312,628 |
e269203c1e3f64cdba0e0520fffd9418c2c9fa1e | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xdfd03433815145249cbd39a1d63632034c0a07894302cb6ac3d2bdf3d4f98f4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | liberal-vs-conservative-polling-margin-friday | Will Conservatives lead on April 4? | 70,312,628 | 70,312,628 |
2e10f6159f35dc422780526b6857df5e905cd56b | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xf662949964092e123d829e8f00e18e9850f420e2ae232a1342d3b0384d40e86d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-28-apr-4 | Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4? | 70,312,628 | 70,312,628 |
4b433760ae3af275627c558eb74b5b4ea2f2b5fb | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xaef15ab5e103c6f2b6ef202759fc18ae3cfdf5f25fa0f24d51e4a5293a5a2f3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | how-many-jan-6th-protestors-will-trump-pardon-in-his-first-100-days | Will Trump pardon 750-999 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? | 76,672,968 | 76,672,968 |
5a8805a9c0804e7be034fff9a9bc4e2b6a1a15fa | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x01f6fec028fc2d1e483f0013d4d94a9554972e40727164acfaf9d57c63a7f135 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 77,158,156 | 77,158,156 |
4e4536a9c625a9f8433e2115c1550dd66a47b1c5 | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x65fc9ece32f93c9bfb5be08b6f9f50c973e2d6f87f7de069b77531b4f877129b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | 77,621,787 | 77,621,787 |
a3fedac3dc2aaef0a11b15c9bf63823bc8ed786a | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x79a7619acc54db0c71ce4ba9bf1d64c1e1781070686f33a538c67e3578bf7f32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-10-october-17 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? | 78,139,316 | 78,139,316 |
a8977968d994e65df8b675f0a87588977dbfb91f | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x0c44de5bb4d6ce6ba51f29cd463949fe36ca0924c081c98bc351a9dc98827651 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,310,282 | 78,310,282 |
a451b58771579ffb423f99d680729ce178fd3ede | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0x48f1c954c09456690fec588cadd59724c4fe3c0d7576364cb72931a346b3c1f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,310,282 | 78,310,282 |
64d8cdef8f288271e645e8443e7d8d077afc195b | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xa42d15ddc3292a35c3380934219f6f84ae21b603847b3c2599cb5cad39b63f32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,442,939 | 78,442,939 |
cefa2da08638549fa86c46a3e005171e9a3f58ea | 0x30206e74eacf3ab070a6c2cb3607a047cb9a023a | 0xf2dacab4d4700731e0b39a055cd3d522711f8c25fbd4a86dd4945f6aa8f00a63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump sign 5-9 executive orders in March? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | Event: price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-october | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | 78,442,939 | 78,442,939 |
0bfa73a041a1ab470e96e78ede8174bd6766c8a3 | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x09573d0045bfdb237b5c2929c61fffbf1734c487c921306231a80775224204f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2?
Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | 71,035,691 | 71,035,691 |
d3ba16dd2325f22fc236aad990b854d726ecab21 | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x2727277032103acb42848064e5274ccbd81a57f10a1563091320ac539dacf3b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2
Predict the user's choice and confidence f... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | 71,035,691 | 71,035,691 |
8bb6124f65b820c397ad4984aa51a09e8653d634 | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x563a59e8b12f62d138a0641f692e84da71e1ca530ed37aea2f33c88fff916358 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Questi... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 10? | 72,609,283 | 72,609,283 |
7bf74ca3291fd6dc138cd7db92d2304eb177db35 | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x3fb5da9f36a911e0891e6d8fae2427fdb74ffaf684c70c90183fd9a7e03bd09a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 10? | 72,609,287 | 72,609,287 |
4cb07628f8556f69cd1b954a6e0cdee8a4abcd89 | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0xecb584d505dee343abeb4ea3527f8b9f34550fcd349d9e7dd13b8486531ab07e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2000 on May 9? | 72,609,287 | 72,609,287 |
5a45bca083ad46c9b98c058d1cbd0bd3dbb80f5e | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x2b7de40d9a57e5a8d1ec1dbf1e817afaf7ab650a2b410889995f74f6e1157701 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 16? | 72,609,291 | 72,609,291 |
3d1fbef65a3e6b1432d6d0e225bbe8120877ad29 | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x45690fa4be72c5b440dfb0f20ed2ddd8146a5f575463e713eeb62589c5bb816c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-16? | 72,609,291 | 72,609,291 |
e2dc8fb2a7d0d3d9a6608179a082d7aa57633ee1 | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0xad462527424350bbf8fe6b63822bc9b822f3a77c46127f1d888c76ee519ace29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106000 and $108000 on May 16? | 72,609,291 | 72,609,291 |
45034315566274b40da10f680eb4f0d50304e37d | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0xb3754b4895883e1a2ccfbfbb820311cadbfd8e06aa6d1177641ac20e536e62f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? | 72,609,291 | 72,609,291 |
335dfbf8950391e611f30bf5778a0b477c6190eb | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0xc670963ad90e15c6a74c0b9c35abd618d5ca3b99578970383e0641cfb7204e4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2100 and $2300 on May 16? | 72,609,291 | 72,609,291 |
fc090dee3e519e52568640868ecc5a03c8f9aa2d | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0xe3d8c61375e0c085c8f775d86692bbd16951dc0e8b0e9c5c7c2565f20a9bf328 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? | 72,609,291 | 72,609,291 |
39ca5563fb1d68ec9db22cf1ab4cd52ac3f11e32 | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x26217feab892b5a04c0f40ffcd40dac06c874ccafde3daad865d1537d7f6b750 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 10? | 72,609,298 | 72,609,298 |
a88053407c693fd453cd3854f583a5e46c5cbb5a | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x3e171ec5a23c940d116ab18d844b57aaa98a6f48a95b9ae6af7869a658b3566f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | la-liga-barcelona-vs-real-madrid | Will Barcelona vs. Real Madrid end in draw? | 72,609,298 | 72,609,298 |
d6a416fbb75d890f5633494dbdbe6ccdb174324b | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x73c435b9fc1bbb0cc2fc999fd1a0c29b2a24851f7145df77ec7922c241ee9f87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | epl-new-che-2025-05-11 | Will Newcastle vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 72,609,298 | 72,609,298 |
a4b89920ab6c6f85a44789d95b84d0517e4675ad | 0x306d35b5579bd50f588f6e92d9cbf90e90e02f83 | 0x878f802f0560e4088f1b67d8f52b6b4b0226001dc82046a490e86a869bc326e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 2? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $92000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-16 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 16? | 72,609,298 | 72,609,298 |
ce68b7b7f4818fc0c893c3ea2e82d8450a513adc | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0xb5cc05def9cf0fc7a40704561309b127025ab76fdcb36be250e1a66f8d5ce73f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP?
Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | 58,383,901 | 58,383,901 |
a64e19f1082f437efbb08fec8c9bfc765add3b94 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x47eaff3c05dbeaae155512d0aaab4ff4b606ebf99bf523f8a6ead3e667bb5822 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the match be a draw?
Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidenc... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Will the match be a draw? | 58,515,680 | 58,515,680 |
0822584479698bb182055b55fe3514f821aecaa4 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x22a86682ab2986d590704b08c8b752f48788b76a5ca67f71d35bf0cbf70e2883 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Germany win?
Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany
Predi... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Will Germany win? | 58,593,683 | 58,593,683 |
98bad736c45c680fadbe27d5b91e0d86a9af1adf | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x3dc69a2da7f4c9c4c7d558b2c2b884f66000475bce834e884c92eec96d2bf1c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-a-winner | Will Germany win Group A? | 58,593,683 | 58,593,683 |
e5a9a19c38a05a4984b405454f60b1ab2b270f79 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x57badf7944e18e1cee11719268a5cc3610c441ed1a659189615a6cff80194f23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-scotland-vs-hungary | Will the match be a draw? | 58,593,683 | 58,593,683 |
1f1650aef3fbc24ddfbb8b724f7e6f0dac397850 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x6060eee47f094ca68941003911c5c442a210d2a86c89b0b96e29beb0463d05ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | nhl-champion-2024 | Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | 58,593,683 | 58,593,683 |
f11d43be62085df24ed391a4b22d7b375b4e8d67 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x7337549076878d45027bdb51bce58c00d9f17d395ace88442c95fd386cf36502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Will the match be a draw? | 58,593,683 | 58,593,683 |
89137b5779523dc648d0944ebd8d2f34bb53ee9f | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x26ce2fe98f1d9a00cbc40c18940016b4717683b94905474b5f86a4394e4d761d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-denmark-vs-serbia | Will Denmark win? | 58,654,296 | 58,654,296 |
1d4a12bc2df40843e91b0e300c340c4543f14c00 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x27f4048eabb396fc8cec25afc5352a2dda4ceb9cb4bd0c28d1f26af5070cb836 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-austria | Will the Netherlands win? | 58,654,296 | 58,654,296 |
c4eafe8e7c298b5f60827cd3de5131723891c9e6 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x93e3d5b50da3c4bd98c527d8d34195f3adb10198c7c45f36c1e09f4efd63ebca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-d-winner | Will France win Group D? | 58,654,296 | 58,654,296 |
28cb93fc4570af5e0332cb95e1b33027b38003a7 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x9ab51964144a578b1657c72ca7aca1cd1108b5672816b177cc688e098eb2804b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-england-vs-slovenia | Will England win? | 58,654,296 | 58,654,296 |
d505898876efa7197549190c58dcf8a91b5970ea | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x8e8cae51fd12958d6b4753eecd0868b23d63f35f79fbfc9b7aa0755b4e86d0cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-romania-vs-netherlands | Will the match be a draw? | 60,130,368 | 60,130,368 |
6919981a662792ab4328f6576488c25f30a5eef3 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x96189971bfd6342ca85ddecb000a2187f1c2f2c431fc08cf9a8998f6b15eeefd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Will the match be a draw? | 60,130,368 | 60,130,368 |
b11e53308d4be9314b5205723c0d1d2f05ff8f73 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x9d025e08116bdebccf99fdff9eb7de1468216093b7b3a3f3c402290c5fb42c02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-france | Will the match be a draw? | 60,130,368 | 60,130,368 |
886d5667c67f75dcec33c718894b3ca9070d776e | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0xe43706845fd3df3ab2bd41a4dc3fd4154fc5d1953a6ac0b96dff5506b7e6e5be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-austria-vs-turkey | Will the match be a draw? | 60,130,368 | 60,130,368 |
71176108a0d7c6f62d014ebccbafde6140c80e76 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x799e0a99312e7daca333239e42978ef2e4cc42f4a0e73fe2a749883a064538bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | 60,170,870 | 60,170,870 |
3e72e7b7633c3acabe829edb72fc0f21ca79b759 | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x8fe11bfea8cfe523d8c384b5f7b14440e461c784d9672bf469032b49ae383a57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | 100m-winner-w | Will Sha’Carri Richardson (USA) win gold in 100m W? | 60,170,870 | 60,170,870 |
f68a45d8f64a151c3bea48631f2a10a603c7e9ef | 0x30b71da3a01edcd3c3e5e2430048d80948ca1fb7 | 0x998dad5cc0ce47a97f746e5f6d5a2d26e2eff4cf4c537b5a7bcff69d73206e45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: nba-finals-mvp-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | individual-vault-winner-w | Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Vault Final? | 60,170,870 | 60,170,870 |
e361cca29bd3f8d9714eb33fe3af69003369be70 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0x4b7036e02e444c5a98c25d48847e64e87642806dd6e7b8bfb1d46a0cb51b2472 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09?
Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,826,485 | 78,826,485 |
a11de10b79c4886f305c2dcaafacc8874369b667 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0x4a271d739253e1ae6eb146cab3bc8eb3baea6c1a4544c846489f07480a0f7349 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)
Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JS... | morales | 0.662837 | ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | 79,096,450 | 79,096,450 |
0d6c99ce1c31f809a71612a92d99bf67788bbd27 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0xba9c15d78061488c32fdf5475da0112cbd1b27122a8e751ad7f6c18e4341c205 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
Target market:
Question: UFC 322: Vieira... | nickal | 1 | ufc-rod1-bon-2025-11-15 | UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (Middleweight, Prelims) | 79,108,430 | 79,108,430 |
9a375f23330c1e51206a945dfe573c19ca3c154c | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0xf7ea26f3778ff22fdb03ff9550e1739165f490014eae70548cf75f4483bc6e41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-275 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | 79,108,430 | 79,108,430 |
50b900736201a599de66fdd8cfcf96a6b6abcb64 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0x5f7a2ad237d6d52e687e225a85055f4441dade2f753c87ff7211b3fc27ec40a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | perez | 1 | ufc-ale7-asu-2025-11-22 | UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card) | 79,237,456 | 79,237,456 |
6b471e431e849690012bec70b18d4dc09c65986d | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0xf3deaf65f90d3edebe1bc3ae03abee8e547cb72d0b025d6810d29a99347321c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | topuria | 0.175719 | ufc-ale58-bek-2025-11-22 | UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) | 79,237,456 | 79,237,456 |
4eebf1d92c0bca0471c217391ce68273b69d832d | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0x925a52c86f34728394c5c239f599e11248d71ba24685563929b0871d3f1fbd1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | menifield | 0.499568 | ufc-vol-alo-2025-11-22 | UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Menifield (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | 79,237,456 | 79,262,551 |
cf15e4a9e901260d06ed265cbb384c9d60f5aa5d | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0xaeb364aa6a98822a6fdb0b35f25d59e8fe23848cae4a0e2d0c816151353952c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | hermansson | 0 | ufc-jac1-myk-2025-11-22 | UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Orolbai (Welterweight, Main Card) | 79,262,551 | 79,416,478 |
6ed04c73f23c31e16c7f23342305f1e8425e39a9 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0xac098bbc998b65b2357dbe94982f6fa8292da9a24648ab3935aa604d088fb7a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | yes | 0.795476 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-worlds-fastest-man-vs-robot-video-on-week-1 | Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 55 and 60 million views on week 1? | 79,442,247 | 79,443,641 |
9f1fffe3abb6efb6c687737777142412880aaff5 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0x55cbabd9a98d148dc532964da63a646a9579bfafb4b11cefd9a7710522132099 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | no | 0.672562 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-worlds-fastest-man-vs-robot-video-on-week-1 | Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 60 and 65 million views on week 1? | 79,442,247 | 79,593,064 |
d33c39066b9c6f4e91809c4744ae374d14a55814 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0x7ccc6eb5951c840312a16dd29d9ee92a9ae073eea046b6e13cd26108454257de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | no | 0 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-759 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | 79,533,928 | 79,533,928 |
4e067ffa6e2c41c8eb6b8e22a64d5b7228bb955c | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0xe9d5f92286ad75eff838f8d464de3c9046d6fb77003eceb9210188cce6727218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | taira | 0.000009 | ufc-bra2-tat1-2025-12-06 | UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) | 79,739,159 | 79,928,326 |
22fcec4cbc636d8185c371f4a4e0382c0c349caa | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0xbc7d22e0ccaffea93d5996eb2fb721b218874fad5ced2b8a5f3e9e537039ff22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | barboza | 0.988808 | ufc-eds-jal-2025-12-06 | UFC 323: Barboza vs. Turner (Lightweight, Early Prelims) | 79,912,538 | 79,912,538 |
785c3d5335f935157353229c1d202bb9d90c4a78 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0xde1f8d1ef3f81042a19c3c85c45f92e34883e69be098fb2956dd0fadb8edf8cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | sadykhov | 0.000003 | ufc-far-naz-2025-12-06 | UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims) | 79,912,538 | 79,952,437 |
58611b5b57e0d42e53cbe71009bc7f0243a76978 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0x91fc3e87d6b2e25089f0a5c9a24fe3452ba99befd10ee48d63d1650bd6127989 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | duncan | 0.037442 | ufc-ter1-chr13-2025-12-06 | UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims) | 79,928,326 | 79,992,128 |
5559b9d29b4f923ccee2e4b8d336ac91b2f37d99 | 0x30b849e3df857d37030eb82bc144129bfb8af41f | 0x855afa117c1b3d64b96e3e21f3001823ac09581dc71c00e30fbec17abea4fb20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fec-gre-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) | Event: ufc-sea4-mic14-2025-11-15 | Choice: morales | Confidence: 0.6628370741969661
3. Question: UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (... | aslan | 0.956605 | ufc-ibo-iwo-2025-12-06 | UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims) | 79,952,437 | 79,952,437 |
181777922421b3bcc1acbcd8e5a0b1ce7767667f | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x7e1d8566a03d0ad56b24708825e90cabcdd743d9cbc19e450ace372df46efc3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager?
Event: next-england-manager
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | next-england-manager | Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | 63,144,170 | 63,144,170 |
8e0fe56e4934673cab811dc8e88b37fde70e1cec | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x05512f8ef87b51bc9627204158ea6efe4ed329cfd7e5d4a439adbdc84f18e434 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19?
Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | 63,276,224 | 63,276,224 |
161307668cf22476d3ca97bab344d18d109ab6ed | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xf6b2255112dc7111d5cd247b38e89e0ee3e714b2ba9542af92dee4bd705bdd3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20?
Event: epl-l... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-che-2024-10-20 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | 63,324,109 | 63,324,109 |
694ef2c9cc7356d9bf4f19d8fa2cbb5b5c0e96f7 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x93fe5d6cc94f1b8a0a5a1f326fd3496316b2448cf6ae90c4732aa00577848f0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | ucl-real-madrid-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund? | 63,378,689 | 63,378,689 |
124efdee16fcf25c2dac1c0786d4086b8c374043 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xbe127ab4ee8e0b9e2edebe7fc26bc8512bd700079937f1d4740920fe7488db4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | ucl-aston-villa-vs-bologna | Will Aston Villa beat Bologna? | 63,378,689 | 63,378,689 |
1a732da53244af151d2422eebcb2eb197d5b3ea9 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x773f3ca26bdf685da92d2a8a701dd98e4e8b46e0b5366cf09aed9eb8fb6fc189 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | north-carolina-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? | 63,966,926 | 63,966,926 |
7e869daa1e2c6a1e6307ae6d6745c327e36b01a2 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,966,926 | 63,966,926 |
6c4d8b2f6f42b8e22f118b35864d52541b2fee18 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 64,011,298 | 64,011,298 |
f2fa889149bab989b80f8b48db72f46dbccfaba0 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xa59e2e79dc1a564477c8d77dc32c30b37c0f4c8782c8cc062a7f788295cd91bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | 64,011,298 | 64,011,298 |
d141045f5e30f4e371ec66eb04b0eab0443f757d | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xa923afcb8297e3ade170f2f8c088f3c277557fadef2c67054d72cc59f8504b2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 64,011,298 | 64,011,298 |
e7f19bbb16954a719649aee797fc76c0e08db69c | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x4d848bab2da79b9ff7f2b2b0d9ddb048bb1fb47e9f782887f16e91d27de41279 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | 64,126,832 | 64,126,832 |
3c86923ae83428706610d38fde0dcb74a2350109 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x71636521d7c97d55c349b637390fb4497d4f8ce52529ddb6d9a4ff537069d063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 7 swing states? | 64,126,832 | 64,126,832 |
9a70cfaa1398659658730a3ddeb69433adaa07a7 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xace43399e495be7791fc2bdcfdc6d98ef21dfef367f52e0351d5eac47f0f9711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Will Leicester win on 2024-12-03? | 65,060,861 | 65,060,861 |
65c7c4a748b4447103dea7c1f1e783ef303904ef | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x068298010480648793fcded979e719692cd5b50c38883c1b91a02ab92d8f7219 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04? | 65,111,366 | 65,111,366 |
587b76e304651ecf3ba8155f4bff00744b7a4264 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x307e2fffe64bae2836d4708f90e433b40af04078ea4320bba18319c1a4880cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | 65,111,366 | 65,111,366 |
523c5b6def61b340b0db7f1ac88825d811492af9 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xa31fd909f90ad66b6a9339d4a3fddf299b4d720bcd318484bfb7898fa6f532e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | 65,111,366 | 65,111,366 |
cba1a3d2ae0b336e8f502f897b5a26ea5a041559 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xd226783f2690b9b6799586ac42b88e5b3fbc0a7385eaa2e833d50e1270876482 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | 65,111,366 | 65,111,366 |
e59b6389023be2e440324ad6d17eebf10b101a88 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x7163f98615e577c3220ce47ea37460a544b52384194495f319d5ab943aabfc75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | 65,798,404 | 65,798,404 |
1f66e311594c4f883c8184d2cdc6c41a49c3525c | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x0322883fc9a40a02562b3022628b10616a3219ce0196612303834e785bcec354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | no | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | 65,829,917 | 65,829,917 |
06a037edf47cd09f8bc5e40a08ca7e34a7f6d149 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x1ada458458ab1772b74fcf7234ac4b8fea90277d1584d35aff485a1a6540d288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 67,202,796 | 67,202,796 |
a5d6943fe9b90e756bfca31cf60dd50107c16142 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x0167644da3944ee073ababe2b431686f1bf06104bf64b7f62b5bedd08b12368a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | no | 1 | ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Will PSV beat Liverpool? | 67,319,755 | 67,319,755 |
77effe76659049766dc5522bcb5ab93003963da7 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xa0d1d715104e47963f0cdb51ce54d04f8cd31ac293176893b5f50bd55f46b9d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | no | 1 | ucl-girona-vs-arsenal | Will Arsenal beat Girona? | 67,319,755 | 67,319,755 |
37f2b08dcb5140ee52a9b3c86c035a294f9dc07c | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xa6f055b983c833b5c0b755806b2feddf0d43bd9ff1c00439e5d1af10ef0609f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | no | 1 | ucl-lille-vs-feyenoord | Will Lille beat Feyenoord? | 67,319,755 | 67,319,755 |
f12117d3fcf5a576635c2eb21585161886fc5f0e | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x04dbe85cf31a4198d8bd414aa18d7868ab9987701a035536ab7e151aeb31970a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | 67,439,824 | 67,439,824 |
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