sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04d5409e130fead06b41c75596518b574ef0fa91 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x0b90f0610910a301ec9530891dd5dab83c0bd52abe32d433d316b0c2354e59db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | 67,439,824 | 67,439,824 |
08217423f34bfd39ffaba233e7a33a606c32c022 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x42f84d28c6a4b69882131da7240e1f158e51c7f8663bde1cc03b551746ddf96a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | 67,439,824 | 67,439,824 |
468cd10dbf87663624b9c90a1e7e94a890b7efe5 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xe3ca9cd362659e18f79b3d75a73e36d81ee79351bb796d5a7268dfb40798228b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-tot-2025-02-02 | Will Brentford win on 2025-02-02? | 67,462,306 | 67,462,306 |
b88bee45d51787f34dc40332859d7d8077903bed | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x3052bee821048faab02ae2897fc7a38946e2de9e2f0290aca71fd40b4cdac426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mac-2025-02-02 | Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 67,485,406 | 67,485,406 |
3a50e1d0a8b22b8d44557022224a036a49557af4 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x950a134a80c0b5726d3b3e54064495eae102f5e844452cf39b3dfdeac75a79ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-che-wes-2025-02-03 | Will Chelsea vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 67,529,538 | 67,529,538 |
fb1e5788a51c02a4ac2f23469c4613d0d6289bd9 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x130015886a296c4a64184d4373c7dcaf497727085f5134ff497712a211152f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-bou-2025-02-15 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-15? | 67,998,354 | 67,998,354 |
700b2d2db310884cfb9ad69c30f26d8486d4025d | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x7c11961299d865fa80eb380bf74566d918566866ff775d7179c8d7ad7c79b127 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager? | Event: next-england-manager | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024... | no | 1 | epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-15? | 67,998,354 | 67,998,354 |
3265413b52d92a995c837e1292f4f70900e26bd8 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xf5ce50b48dd595b08c6832714751dde43addc2f31eb8d1a63a30a7b59ed8b749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-sou-lei-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-... | no | 1 | epl-mac-new-2025-02-15 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? | 67,998,354 | 67,998,354 |
8edee44159201ba872058bc554287e44e1b16357 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x13a949a41a4b97560c0780dfa82601ffd8da9225589821c3c9c625e23c8ac0fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-aston-... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-eve-2025-02-26 | Will Brentford win on 2025-02-26? | 68,428,718 | 68,428,718 |
ccac18838e90e782cc7871b870e6cbef7481ba48 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x94c8411e32d3e62ea3094a6b7df7ff84bca85d27a9b50a0ddc52f8bac04b342c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-bologna | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? | 68,428,718 | 68,428,718 |
92576d82c59e6bb6a2695f2a22712a8a76031928 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xd3128bce2cfd79336e681810618a1d14e94d336e6917413e17b3ff3e75b61faa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-bologna | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? | Event: north-carolina-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win t... | no | 1 | epl-not-ars-2025-02-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26? | 68,428,718 | 68,428,718 |
3c272ec80caa592e7d51be361fd092b7ee5577ca | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xfab2a9ee7499a4d8a33ca6790bbdf1848de2cd2866616f5d749d914cc9b2ba1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? | Event: north-carolina-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-mac-2025-02-26 | Will Tottenham vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 68,428,718 | 68,428,718 |
9c9bd88b03bfbbb841dccba077dfb762705c5745 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xcaba2507c8ce55330e8069c0f7631e56909ef5c9ac06a3e561ab615115c992d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | 68,807,635 | 68,807,635 |
7560677201f7ea9986cf4fedcf963e8de57b137a | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x6d17971cfea990442802982408a4fbcf181f550bdad95aed07dd002b00d74dcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Event: wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | 68,878,182 | 68,878,182 |
974672226634e1e7affae5674340a29e5bfd4746 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xbae624ccb9096d45618acc99357ffbe189b74aabfffa06d54149e62ecf8a40d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Event: wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | epl-not-eve-2025-04-12 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-12? | 70,242,740 | 70,242,740 |
beeb1269de250f9566f98012b6a68440f257f813 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x4d9eb85bc54e4a52d8cf181fbb34015373a9f75b47d8778ba2e2733febc1f107 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ips-2025-04-13 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-04-13? | 70,264,796 | 70,264,796 |
35f6343bba46cd8e3e0c254a7a0945e0cfc0e798 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xdbbd124da6523be3c2332ddc5e4c42f1d808adbeafc9a9e555cff71b2119e622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 7 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-ars-2025-04-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? | 70,498,677 | 70,498,677 |
91e4a61ef75ae96ea53f8bb75d0d471e085a6e58 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x93217f8f6f29fc091e78acc554776c25b921941994a325d998e23283a3bb8970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win 7 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-sou-2025-04-19 | Will West Ham win on 2025-04-19? | 70,730,258 | 70,730,258 |
a9d47289f21f3e38395bd31bcdb68f2ed99d8b0e | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,300,286 | 71,300,286 |
5b5b11690fdb9cfe01212013ee64b31ae3d18589 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x4d2ef73506b82c190f3d47ed7e3e7b02a375b454e11bb931699b8ba93cdb0db2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | C... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? | 71,822,163 | 71,822,163 |
3f015a71605bda4c0f7a1f5942c5c4dc63b93436 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x2a28a0f12c4987ebbdeefc5ab3388065d7c42c5fb973b9786790015fd0bf4dd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 |... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wol-2025-08-23 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-23? | 75,569,657 | 75,569,657 |
99980015e880da5fb00f9d81c1354b4b7261b84a | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xc197812e9ba8822fb8faa7098abcf5d6b9e4ee02236c0ddf925aa05159e13348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 |... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? | 77,040,385 | 77,040,385 |
c9daaa8cc58e6e570a0b97bfcdc9b44e2b8d8d15 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xf06a161f8326e12761d3d63b73e1d60911199bee716ba12433746bc1cca04be7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choic... | yes | 1 | ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,045,105 | 78,045,105 |
80734bcc33a46a722d613ccb0caa401444574efe | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x3e5c6207058d1d84acedccaae83f6710c705b01a37371cf17b009c5afaeb5247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-liv-2... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Will Fulham win on 2025-11-01? | 78,529,449 | 78,529,449 |
740f5d529fb961036e05eb95a5858d515396d21a | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x7962dd0b79fb3585682185c0b2254fad2c5215fc4358ecac188004b1f5f208ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-lee-2025-11-01 | Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? | 78,529,449 | 78,529,449 |
7741b5140a30fc6fe5a0dd4c6c38405b8d682e39 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xb1163e18f5fb7dc2c572004a5456100f08f71c513d51001bd1f7306a1d1d864c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal beat Girona? | Event: ucl-girona-vs-arsenal | Choice... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bre-2025-11-01 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01? | 78,529,449 | 78,529,449 |
0acc8a409d16cb9725bc4eefdfa9b6ddd25f0f83 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x3819d64f6c093548658efb4900184a72eac7485c4a822f980ca4f36a5a705ffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSV beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Girona? | Event: ucl-girona-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille beat Feyenoord? | Event: ucl-lille-vs-feyenoord | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. ... | yes | 1 | ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,804,344 | 79,804,344 |
81a589c0c1e30480f9a7033cb328df3b9bff5a77 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x5a70e8ad07e44def12452ed6f114b2f74ee9829f263330c1fd54a9064b978b65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Girona? | Event: ucl-girona-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille beat Feyenoord? | Event: ucl-lille-vs-feyenoord | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-24? | 79,804,344 | 79,804,344 |
78b114e88486f01a4e030b7d3b08768ab3e8da7a | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x765453a0d71f8152e313b7402985c62f38cc75467dbefdc117ad6c6dfde7ab55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille beat Feyenoord? | Event: ucl-lille-vs-feyenoord | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Will Manchester United vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 79,804,344 | 79,804,344 |
d000b6f54e0ae4445c5ed3feb1cb86e0fce16d20 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0x9fc7409858de8572111082603e165c85e3a6078009db880a5fe5fb57d6c4c3c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | C... | no | 1 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | 79,804,344 | 79,804,344 |
6ade22ee2e969bdf777e353ba68468c41ae9f4dc | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xbb285bad53b17214d2bc435f1e755d2c44105db5797a81a8923662d0c96364b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-02-02? | Event: epl-bre-tot-2025-02-02 | C... | no | 1 | epl-liv-not-2025-11-22 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? | 79,804,344 | 79,804,344 |
1c18222397cea92024480c5f6724d6a325b8d509 | 0x30d6bbb9d0dfaf1717daa4ac7ccb3978399a9ca0 | 0xc55026be1f7b839781e1178b56a7637bc3f6e12300ca8183ccb8739688aab783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-02-02? | Event: epl-bre-tot-2025-02-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mac-20... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-ful-2025-11-29 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? | 79,804,344 | 79,804,344 |
bc94a989d05865e853a482a58d372bf6c4057773 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x4e5c93bc34ce6e9236ceffec74c8c103be7099c8c095b02ce91beb2400a978bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Solana above $240 on February 7?
Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Solana above $240 on February 7? | 67,504,130 | 67,657,368 |
4fd2de3dd5abbd289321673584e55d9da64865d6 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x7d088a79269e495cee5ec59bdbd88a37d755219cfb1500b55a42145272e1253b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Wizards vs. Hornets
Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence"... | hornets | 0 | nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Wizards vs. Hornets | 67,508,059 | 67,514,245 |
c8e995b949890dc0b4232fb551ab035308ff958c | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x6427c6d0d04329b034964cc5e7361da0d9cdd1ded71459aafbed1f23bd73803d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Hawks vs. Pistons
Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03
Predict the u... | hawks | 0 | nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Hawks vs. Pistons | 67,510,819 | 67,510,819 |
5a3bb12946de640f37e7588d1492f7242bb1a508 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0xae6cc2871c1cb2ebbf2267bd8871b3ccf8043a0bb93488df749bd9daa8a6444c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | knicks | 0 | nba-hou-nyk-2025-02-03 | Rockets vs. Knicks | 67,511,151 | 67,515,628 |
676c78f8ef5631e017cfcd4de735e27806e1a530 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0xa7883731b193538e2e1f1dae7282077cc0fe25da2fa33c18500faef0cda48da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | magic | 0 | nba-orl-gsw-2025-02-03 | Magic vs. Warriors | 67,512,492 | 67,519,772 |
8e731e797ff3d86199c7c385de0f6e0c7799c2a8 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x93fdec161dac18f2d140687baa7673b595a5fd15ed2ac03c85f2e1d5f248f849 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | jazz | 0 | nba-ind-uta-2025-02-03 | Pacers vs. Jazz | 67,512,553 | 67,512,778 |
b964a0bb97a65a5cb7717d44ec50b7f707fbd2f8 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x500184910ed8de1ffcabce26e74033a098df0050b5a74f72ccf53cb3439ad124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | no | 0 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-february | Will XRP reach $3.60 by February 28 2025? | 67,533,882 | 67,535,764 |
2a8a6a8d5ca65623b20373162133a15225b975f9 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x4f185b4fcfab82c90e9b3f201b9b8638967dc41f06c685072ae44a7079fbba65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-february | Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? | 67,534,996 | 70,468,791 |
ad9f33e199ba1742d0db7e453c101a73995ae7eb | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x47fb21c348344bcb6f2e216b75a2793a8210e73906c2bb656ef7c2e614d08c49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | no | 0 | will-ethereum-hit-3000-by-wednesday | Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Wednesday? | 67,535,935 | 67,598,418 |
7713ff707a7b815bf68439b9ebd8d5751cfae1d0 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x227b73e549e8f8a8d5503cf9e8acacefde0b3734324b697df66970ccb2e3a731 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-bos-cle-2025-02-04 | Celtics vs. Cavaliers | 67,548,164 | 67,551,417 |
5cd3a1eb0131191033295f8d8f4bfabdb58a5358 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0xb0f6536ce9b7a8f3fae4029b6635a883c5f1a3cb226e06ff4e021b98a463a002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | 76ers | 0 | nba-dal-phi-2025-02-04 | Mavericks vs. 76ers | 67,548,557 | 67,555,116 |
8fc6446959e201452e62fe965f0dc3bfc89a570d | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0xf168dc3438240b78ef6f1cd51ee935d9ae7651b75c886e2f11fafc2af507294a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | nets | 0 | nba-hou-bkn-2025-02-04 | Rockets vs. Nets | 67,548,947 | 67,556,804 |
9cf1111d4cb026e7f379604ed3a16cfcc2e5238a | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0x7756c678e5972bbefbdd7c81116230dc772ae4287fe7f3f722b37215e0e0144c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | bulls | 0 | nba-mia-chi-2025-02-04 | Heat vs. Bulls | 67,551,312 | 67,552,160 |
ddd801e781b29c5815825acc775d516057051d47 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0xc9130798fdfa009bc4ed721b19193f04cc1e499197272b2240293385a287d936 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | knicks | 0 | nba-nyk-tor-2025-02-04 | Knicks vs. Raptors | 67,551,365 | 67,556,134 |
09578cce57bf93ea8df3cd6de8ef187a185f337c | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0xd7b9ea6271792cd6fb583bf4cb3b830b0527a0e641024fc739c85174c3b3c1f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | clippers | 0 | nba-lal-lac-2025-02-04 | Lakers vs. Clippers | 67,552,012 | 67,559,394 |
62826335451cfdd2c6f467db546d45f3a21e5df5 | 0x30d7b15a6f05b44eee5621b4f008c5c1d368a089 | 0xe842864d68ecfd69456177dea9f660bef2813d27b0c8e0417232011625313ac7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana above $240 on February 7? | Event: solana-above-240-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wizards vs. Hornets | Event: nba-was-cha-2025-02-03 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Pistons | Event: nba-atl-det-2025-02-03 | Choice: hawks | Confide... | pacers | 0 | nba-ind-por-2025-02-04 | Pacers vs. Trail Blazers | 67,552,735 | 67,554,970 |
590d4ea2e31cecd544f0dd5d7ddbec523f788dc0 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0xe30cd1ce5d2c99b6b1229e81ab0d6f7922b947cdb01b7b3903b273d4754e30fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | 79,433,807 | 79,436,317 |
cf047ea6c978573c00f46a203782ced12956caf5 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x1fcc8a6a7d9960130b8975f5ac68bd3c7e8034f7b52cde427956f6ceef931096 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | 79,433,807 | 79,437,145 |
ba0b28c6d5fe4fcf0e33fe6904011cf61661455a | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x0e3f486246e4d11241ab11db588f26098303a70cd602aaf8def96c5323bffdd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6AM ET | 79,439,918 | 79,439,918 |
0fe5af3f564882a35ad396738d6035dcf02bac58 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x65b99d2adeec58da169879828b0d2c868d2931d34be36beda6b2f9a36ea9d900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0.588323 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 5AM ET | 79,439,918 | 79,439,918 |
8c285cf2bd6979d657dcc084ef34bd8517c541ae | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0xcc1c4b10fa215fcbfb76d7b8da418ef67b284764947efa451746a64f74fefa2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0.106193 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 6AM ET | 79,439,918 | 79,442,591 |
7d8b94faf1a915a6db2d871886fd2516a945c828 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x54b93e9e6ea5bb937f6ca1ab89056afe47f4dfdfb7ed88023ff23784e5f0786f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0.354479 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 7AM ET | 79,442,591 | 79,442,591 |
bd1da3040f9e6bb092b262cbd08e81a602dcd269 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x12bfff3031e9ae3bbc233ebd625b9abbb98181b62a0ef65201583ba6a9c5da73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 7AM ET | 79,442,591 | 79,444,419 |
c22749f49678071a047d62144d2f28852e3869ff | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x2f250013270fe7e15d7961ed66609d5d26a9aacda089dd372317d9ddf180f278 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.321739 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 8AM ET | 79,445,342 | 79,445,342 |
b69500519e3dde58f033051ceed77236fc613b24 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x4b1d8bb2fc93505ea0be95591838dfac7e7cbc12ebe38e6091731c4e3ddb8bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0.79592 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-24-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9AM ET | 79,445,342 | 79,445,342 |
b0bab1f2774ffa87dacd1e78e72af1ee0329443d | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x8e1fc3141674c0dfeaeec542be96d9ecfaa453560c8beaa1ea4a67c44dee91b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 9AM ET | 79,445,342 | 79,445,651 |
68f78f82aaf1556451fe4e4b5966cf0383fa4d2d | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0xd7084b18906f707bc5b98f6876f3b3381b3afc24b1fd0a9ab3f72b173c6764bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.026928 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-25-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 3AM ET | 79,480,044 | 79,480,044 |
7b1577827293b7e7532f118d45f9430de847d7cd | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0xc6e39c055943c6fb310aa7b267a9af15a21ef7dc702b3b4eab8204992b3c9a58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.000272 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-25-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 8AM ET | 79,488,425 | 79,488,425 |
d6ee4697308c4435a82e76ac8075980799023e37 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x93770e35f4c512a9983e38229f4a4c966d6d002b3c38eac6352ca62f639a4c9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9AM ET | 79,488,425 | 79,491,514 |
3e134ac20e42d369f942ad6052d6d228208ba57d | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0xb21cf82ad6f600ece82d88c150c74ec1d3b37573bdc57e5f6cd6ae6b6c136947 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-25-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 9AM ET | 79,488,425 | 79,491,514 |
49b9dc8259bb6e2563a6f17b32b5505d1c27be4c | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x35012c3019b081cea594e4eee1bd033b0059dd244825df9adf988b00787f0dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0.91296 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-26-12am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 12AM ET | 79,517,381 | 79,517,381 |
8250a5592272024dbe68b20d2dbcff47d1636493 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x8886f1f3ecf1b0e7cba75aa5f3fefb7b5b9f4a03a11b9f786cdd5e423c8e5e49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-26-1am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 1AM ET | 79,517,381 | 79,517,381 |
abbf25572535da53d3a76feec252a50e8c8b1665 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x0f4459b4d611e214608a10cca4b81938430757e8f088b5f160fc088d46f9befd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 9AM ET | 79,532,608 | 79,543,858 |
ca87ad1f07d9a6306733fe5df0d36b65acf4a6a1 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x4861851580be269c5f37790743458a6fe4d7fcf21ec090e528a7fd3b47fff54a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 10AM ET | 79,532,608 | 79,543,858 |
1766810da7d704091fecf8ba332b2a7189703cbb | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x8f3d0c7740c45e270aee414423b708cb0c300e24ac451f6cb5399b58a23c6311 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-26-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 9AM ET | 79,532,608 | 79,543,858 |
7146b6ecc31f5b83cd544ce0509a9426f0cb4b41 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x44b9deba80b5783a573995ebfba48bb304e6175757950426150e42c254f7a81f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 6PM ET | 79,861,511 | 79,861,511 |
31e306207e90c4656cd3890efb7d2bfdc1927397 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x547fe406aeabaede4e4046a5add33d14427f6048f2024907527a87a89e93a56b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.742208 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-3-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11PM ET | 79,861,511 | 79,861,511 |
e1ad0ccbca6c80ef17006611391bfd1e73d05099 | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x70091809bd20a3b49742f4958919dbddc42702a50694236fee873209f75deb63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-december-3-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 5PM ET | 79,861,511 | 79,861,511 |
d5830a4c1ccd46bdddab1ea12c2c2e3056f9db5a | 0x30f3072f766cb2f2bf4d5127a00077d92c7f0535 | 0x8b3a9d6ca57d3a00707259978dd88613c2628c7f43f457e474548d3d058ba2f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-december-3-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8PM ET | 79,861,511 | 79,861,511 |
725fd46d8b6ad9fa6631685b0bdf3b2c88bc90ed | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0x2a92954adc179dd853d3be80c4eafe6640af45242e936cb877042354eb02dadd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November?
Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-in-november | Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | 79,017,524 | 79,017,524 |
058b7f3f871c55bf041a5bd09b88641087e10bd6 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0x1e03b7563ef3603caeea00fbaa25216925d9ca0e90c824472a7d893d845c68a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Google Trends Parlay
Event: google-trends-parlay
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidenc... | no | 0.002898 | google-trends-parlay | Google Trends Parlay | 79,017,525 | 79,017,525 |
378c8f8c430759713a189b4c2e2a2b2c9a7c3e29 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xa47c3241c8f51d4f02d8c6dea507d8ceee4be1adc425cecc933564c762ee24ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
Target market:
Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31... | no | 0.338489 | israel-x-syria-security-agreement-by-september-30 | Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | 79,017,525 | 79,017,525 |
095f5982a0f9a955a9495851498b7606208b2ed4 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xe5867915417a1486421f720e2f057da3086da85cac395e705f6d50844b8b2333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 0.337283 | earnings-mentions-walmart-2025-11-20 | Will Walmart say "Skip" during earnings call? | 79,055,314 | 79,055,314 |
450d3083d2dd2bea35aaacae86648cb26bf4e259 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xaa66eb115a855e259206b6716b518ee9323da8722c40ccf6d1bdda9565f4ee93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-saudi-investment-forum-on-november-19 | Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19? | 79,167,846 | 79,167,846 |
f11abaed0696ce2a9414c1b9e556951da844cab2 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xaa345aaeb75306ba5516faa3bb6d346bb878a278110b54786419913e773ce7e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 0.001828 | will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-december-31 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31? | 79,363,481 | 79,363,481 |
314a347937c6d954101e43438d8cf0f823cd7d08 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0x20ab71c028208020b72b3ce7bfc393b5f107daa6f401a601114e373b3315f705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-at-the-thanksgiving-turkey-pardon-on-tuesday-936 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" or "B-2" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday? | 79,451,588 | 79,451,588 |
9f7c3e6c724d6d667dbf2c95987e816338d37eff | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xb70f4f0d0c13d2751e9fb55f1c02b183fc95a90cf0ff23b34b2e79a4b91dc9c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | fc st. pauli | 1 | bun-pau-uni-2025-11-23-more-markets | Spread: FC St. Pauli (-1.5) | 79,451,675 | 79,451,675 |
4062626fa51f9853ef2f69545f3f765ba77fc529 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xcfbe2de215f38407317a7ecfff4c13aa591eca2fe428fc203e5669a936009e78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 0 | will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31 | Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | 79,493,971 | 79,493,971 |
28d4c8087c4713a628da3243a1bc5a43b0703843 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xca5e9fa7a7104637e622c19229df732d7d2e0b48b0c0cdf468cc9b22cff42333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 1 | the-game-awards-best-art-direction | Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Best Art Direction at the 2025 Game Awards? | 79,535,114 | 79,535,114 |
1dc650dd92ab70b94f6c17ff30343c2b52cce2c5 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0x3e771aff9201dd57c87dd93ce93af8b40ffeef489570d90591db70bed60c6924 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-24-30 | Will Trump say "Cave" or "Pipe" this week (November 24–30)? | 79,535,116 | 79,622,745 |
b9acc35b6728f548a8436bdd24cceda99cf323bc | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xe4ce72fea4f28a6ca948befd3b12c496b054b8c3bce16ff4f3fae6f8af42b01c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 0 | will-a-balloon-deflate-during-the-2025-macys-thanksgiving-day-parade | Will a balloon deflate during the 2025 Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade? | 79,560,823 | 79,560,823 |
fa38a0ca61000b978e013e5380691f1381a136f3 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xc91155d60627713932ab342ff77bc8cfd619601f80e785041a84ad4b9b283480 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 1 | what-will-mrbeast-say-during-nyt-dealbook-summit | Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Chocolate" 8+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit? | 79,560,823 | 79,841,136 |
099672e3a073e8e165f79a7be47ff02ec9423595 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0x2f744f6e1ee9900c8ea174d6ae538c72772440f95144d89472e05c19e1eac1a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | alabama crimson tide | 0 | cwbb-kenest-ala-2025-12-01 | Kennesaw State Owls vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (W) | 79,619,382 | 79,619,382 |
b9c94f992167885b1a5de7485e62e9ec6e80faa4 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0x6862938422e44af93b43f65996a53f08168b47c12979fc29a5d186e04aa5f8d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-24-30 | Will Trump say "South Africa" this week (November 24–30)? | 79,619,382 | 79,663,019 |
0aa6abf4a98c0bb25176d316bb70ed0f1983df97 | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xb7909ae03436b3113917ebc06026177f3c6f7d5130483e2ce50eeefd0ee5ccd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | yes | 0.081659 | trump-approval-rating-on-december-5 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on December 5, 2025? | 79,662,879 | 79,662,879 |
87a9c0fe4e610afaef6fb372bffc17d2c6d09b3b | 0x30f709eeafb57b4ca360c53cf06e79ce1bf2f224 | 0xe52203ca784082bf3d252cb7a67d6e4b85a12e7a48bc2bcd06082c2a0527aa8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Pope" in November? | Event: what-will-trump-say-in-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Google Trends Parlay | Event: google-trends-parlay | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0028980943061632305
3. Question: Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31? | Event: is... | no | 0 | november-inflation-argentina-monthly | Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in November? | 79,663,132 | 79,663,132 |
715b9508587c83b3214a2829d162193f87497f4a | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xfe0d3ec264bf85733a175841fdc06f89d5292b604892ffd5b8df0a585f50319a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus?
Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | 52,411,720 | 52,411,720 |
cc852fdc13489c7a935187f176b4815074f9d009 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x9f48a05fb3f34c80866fc41729ec0b085dba86c944df2b0400b925c31e56e233 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary?
Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner
Predict the user's... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | 52,693,557 | 52,693,557 |
12b757ded0f8f67a76ce7d04b4f7d2562aac4fd7 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xf8396a8d21c1982312bedfb110c6d8845a54a9d4db9188d974838a0b10111c79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | el-salvador-presidential-election-winner | El Salvador Presidential Election: Will Nayib Bukele win? | 53,255,822 | 53,255,822 |
0c78a71c6223e66561eaa5fa3916d72ead68297e | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xe91b26e02e0a35d164b243a1b1a70d5886441084e9da1f3f664f052730030cbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | 53,489,812 | 53,489,812 |
4587c3ef2aeeb3a20e8b0d62c8c208384d74fda5 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xe6137f8637c8a9595dfec6e1f0133d3ab941846d7e80d3d33e5387f57bb5a37c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | 54,031,406 | 54,031,406 |
5f5ea39c14b2b38b4bf8ff9e687354e83be91bd0 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x0e7eb6e50bbefd945ccaa96bb22752d5675ded2f5d60debc6d5830cac5e228ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | pakistan-election-who-will-be-next-prime-minister | Will Nawaz Sharif be next prime minister of Pakistan? | 54,704,565 | 54,704,565 |
9221e81a3603b9a2787c3786883dd99d51a5af24 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x77d4493757464b3bdc1c7ae624a5e3070abb2419c01c266b1bbeb1854df7967d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats | Will the DPK win the most seats in the South Korean election? | 57,504,444 | 57,504,444 |
d0d50064776f28773d7af818e339e61682baacc8 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x604699c465b190fdd1929338d726616411ff3cf6123fb0d604dda0181d34976c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 62,298,441 | 62,298,441 |
8501371de85e2e45b43e04f3d429671e6745f714 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,605,378 | 67,605,378 |
10624fe2364ef045deab21ad86be9e3e3e979fba | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xb722a5b45981597a72fdf941225286871f207e6c2b84928b603dcb7475c051f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6? | 67,637,866 | 67,637,866 |
075f640c37181f38fa4fc6737b00a83093a77b82 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x185940d5d7918830b5df909acce6c0bca822f3bcbf294a8eea1af4e49f1249c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-6 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on February 6? | 67,765,116 | 67,765,116 |
e199e263f36c356f522001cf33c42f5e74b9b1bf | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x375348e9f2c66c1e7c6d0d22ef945a85de51d13ac8dadc729b7d4c29b33ed77f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be 35°F or below on February 11? | 67,812,892 | 67,812,892 |
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