sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
f4e642ef56e182edaa2fc81102242bd4056a0643 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,314,459 | 68,314,459 |
15bceca7db92617ced0ae55c75befc24f8df7a2c | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x97f319059fa784eddcba724913a779211694a5124752c85fb602e7b3276d6f17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 25? | 68,373,109 | 68,373,109 |
ba887dfa82dab9e4f4a1a82c58bde855d4c0b7e1 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x40ca912d2ae464de5866e530144c794bde4b86fc161eadf684a7e399af72c82e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25? | 68,392,786 | 68,392,786 |
60c8d4747ad4bbecee958075886a5adbb12633e4 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xf6f7699234bdfa57480b83ef289eff0981bec8807146e2ea9c50a4752628af9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 25? | 68,392,786 | 68,392,786 |
c21e67a257ca24d65ccc1571cfc4bab27ee56201 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xcd6b6ecbe3105b32f8875abdeb686d81fd8df6868ef3c3d9a94e2ff3242bf64c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-26 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 26? | 68,411,304 | 68,411,304 |
bae6ddd4641e7994a9b94358e6ec9f77ddd20fee | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xc33569d2eb4823556774d2f6376992ff43a2b02607d06e67678d16b938773aac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-26 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 26? | 68,422,690 | 68,422,690 |
63c91b0aa259ddeac5e634838a967d5002e359f8 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x5aaf2fd3dbdb3bd110bb30156a5f53a0ad930c57083fecf84ea44ae95d09de3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-26 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26? | 68,432,040 | 68,432,040 |
00f2dbf496a77d261f7e15912d5779281771dc9f | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0x972ed3f4b906d434d06eea1457725c3a673dbb93da0529134ddb695682a927b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 26? | 68,432,040 | 68,432,040 |
f19b509aea376a130713096a1c19498225bb231e | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xb6b53259c2b13e4935b19253d79ce554b1c77ae919465a8d9af1d223c02a9148 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 26? | 68,432,040 | 68,432,040 |
f3880dee5f0c711c58b6a44eb7028a66bc434fb0 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xc290ac1b8799eda4f16251ac6fcff5ea9c161533ea72758298c451890bbbc0e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-26 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26? | 68,432,040 | 68,432,040 |
c7c9f2505ab0d7f9936e42a4cadec7675d2d3fad | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xf3f3fb978018ee729b518d43f858da7941bdc34202ff28fa8349954f7b7741f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 26? | 68,432,040 | 68,432,040 |
39b0089f7a46f0b57cfaaa1c4343d9d1d83d0958 | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xb3cbf6be2fa79e450a75a3e61f1dfe189fe9916528b2798f711936905d7656e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-27 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 27? | 68,451,215 | 68,451,215 |
c17c0acfe156ada4b4471a7844e9e91b097dc26c | 0x30f7b31ab5f1a3d98de5492df4d0f9110f63908e | 0xd0fa5bdc4ebbdec7ff453f5038f7a1403bbbd6e5d5c6762936de65a2c866d1f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-27 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on February 27? | 68,451,215 | 68,451,215 |
353e3c5fd40f4273087060dcd319ce68150685c7 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x9e7ac869c72d9eae9941242ad0e03d92193144e2f6a3cfd6c14454ac288a52f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?
Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,653,038 | 73,653,038 |
f5925a4f72269d1363a7caddcacd8f2e3358ef5c | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0xfa7f0e7da56ce356d6677995ce0cab55685436a3770df4039f582ad6830e8bbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?
Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer
Pr... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,873,359 | 73,873,359 |
db89722b9396a6d3ab92d6d6b2ebee194c1ea97c | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0xfcf91883aaffd785c92d44b4ce65a2dc0bd99c400cbc7ac181e894e10a9a5ca3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 74,363,057 | 74,363,057 |
761d19b480d5d39c6fa77028a19024623f47e679 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x0b4af5b0d219440528c245f150692ba8868e76d0f08b736021731c09ba250e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | uef-far-hrv-2025-09-05 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-09-05? | 76,092,591 | 76,092,591 |
453f79ceb78da90fcfbdb2720f914c3897484fa8 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0xb6dacbb7cb34a97cd53f08f68fa6c8957bbb1441c14f9332240d75bad608ffd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | cof-hai-hnd-2025-09-05 | Will Honduras win on 2025-09-05? | 76,114,446 | 76,114,446 |
7ec2273e39325e8bcb8ac907b799921b28a45b10 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x00f393e5b6d82de5dd706147eebb5fbe0cec8beed8bed0e1c713f895c1d62568 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | yes | 0.000111 | uef-che-kvx-2025-09-05 | Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-05? | 76,114,446 | 76,241,806 |
79c9de5ce724811732b0e9fd26e5d53ad7c94f4f | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x626bb25a6a27573d4eb0773b5eb77e678e2192b70db268e17d1c81f30ef2de1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-den-sco-2025-09-05 | Will Denmark win on 2025-09-05? | 76,114,446 | 76,241,806 |
b58661470023a6490b4184e8c0367a62e5521bf2 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x6f5f6f3b663d347135ad5b4ed5ff06dc82aafdd09761cad19749ce8604f04de1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | fif-rom-can-2025-09-05 | Will Romania win on 2025-09-05? | 76,114,446 | 76,241,806 |
0391e7fb78524a5cd07355778d1487699351d6ad | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x14e32f815eb7a5e0ce35dce242bf57a421705cbe04ba51e05684d4afa5354806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-den-sco-2025-09-05 | Will Scotland win on 2025-09-05? | 76,114,446 | 76,241,807 |
e435c14f0ac485c2b588a80263475cde30544f16 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0xef6512826abfd9fd10e0b347195659bab44c7f8992716813d1ed974cf65dfe20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | cof-hai-hnd-2025-09-05 | Will Haiti win on 2025-09-05? | 76,114,446 | 76,241,807 |
e1e84c84c13f4a52b8e56ece4cd1cfc4efd0f9fd | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0xf220edccb8f787085dfc8239382cdfffb9c038bcd1fd414c09c29aec52af7832 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | yes | 0.244057 | uef-den-sco-2025-09-05 | Will Denmark vs. Scotland end in a draw? | 76,114,446 | 76,241,807 |
d800033f1c798e920c20d4a919375d1204ddb5d8 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x86f67c540608528f5db61617d056ba1890dbab92dd77519891666657cd8b7600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-arm-prt-2025-09-06 | Will Portugal win on 2025-09-06? | 76,139,806 | 76,139,806 |
6c6757c555b28407f5519c6f1e33928ecd074668 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x46956d8be60abeffb8c7418bac56f07a5b4567da4c11a42149ed734620213e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | uef-lit-nld-2025-09-07 | Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-07? | 76,169,590 | 76,169,590 |
023173e5338e7b06d74fde9a1af2bcc7b4a1efac | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x734cbbbc72d7d4bb131221b1998d4da0c239b586b8253be24ea06a25e0fbd800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | uef-ger-nir-2025-09-07 | Will Germany win on 2025-09-07? | 76,169,681 | 76,169,681 |
d0d1c9421acf169c69c98f45e80a1cb4b46e4467 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x74080c5b8426fd535c4248d16b3a322e747f5b3ac1a79c635f275e2412f3cd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | uef-bel-kaz-2025-09-07 | Will Belgium win on 2025-09-07? | 76,169,740 | 76,169,740 |
a3c48cbc8c42f1299f3e18f5ed616a03eb745b92 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x30ca018ba2b699af9209a632b0f05da3c39aca4c747757db53640bc6b2c99900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | uef-kvx-swe-2025-09-08 | Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-08? | 76,170,587 | 76,170,587 |
56e8f35029226c61d9c1d731c5e701ccccba036a | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x808ac96a104cb81a79d0027c66df283c25aadb1958d592b07abfb12fca89dad0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-geo-bul-2025-09-07 | Will Georgia win on 2025-09-07? | 76,177,929 | 76,241,807 |
a3a5d5ccede77a5a0e4d21b4bbf84ed9d59d58a2 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x10370f4f5578fc271a64e61b9e5a0a67d98ec3e02a29762e6540a6d58293306e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0.500215 | uef-lit-nld-2025-09-07 | Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-07? | 76,180,304 | 76,241,807 |
74ea6fa0cd8efa5752322784ccf761be291850cf | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x854d61a5122ede7c0baf3db05e1b8544a6c4de13d87ba4e87713346484f75230 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-mac-lie-2025-09-07 | Will North Macedonia win on 2025-09-07? | 76,180,304 | 76,241,807 |
6b2ce8bada865198bdc46c4072008da152eb0382 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x2a93c4187dc9da6b8ef08e108f828cea03e48e51ed895ee28f429c441ac69a34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | yes | 0.333333 | uef-ger-nir-2025-09-07 | Will Germany win on 2025-09-07? | 76,200,144 | 76,200,144 |
f1c5f83b6958a9a69c01e10dd0f1d92723fbb1d4 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x3f5b00a520b3fe2c1da4537ca30c9f1031380eff1d7129d04c1c8bd98d7a519a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | yes | 0.000263 | uef-lux-svk-2025-09-07 | Will Slovakia win on 2025-09-07? | 76,200,144 | 76,200,144 |
31ed07eb6f914fc7dcd09819bc2dfb2472e1bb07 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0xa54383ffcde805af254ff0d9de0736f16c86234cfdea5f39b3231e8decee8da6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-bel-kaz-2025-09-07 | Will Belgium win on 2025-09-07? | 76,200,144 | 76,200,144 |
a5ae06e55787293ae13db789c0c0abf34dbba481 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x4ff99bf1b3e6d00cb1ba36607b4059f648df36d28f446478beb7db572a6a89d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-pol-fin-2025-09-07 | Will Poland vs. Finland end in a draw? | 76,200,144 | 76,241,806 |
a09603ddf7a4bdcc6a18c324fa8cf21ccf38e6c4 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x7b3c964da374af9075f2171cb1f48fdf316e1d1cacac5166a5ba3d03d8a6d027 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-tur-esp-2025-09-07 | Will Spain win on 2025-09-07? | 76,200,144 | 76,241,806 |
c01659cc768e92d458055e53b8dbb44ceb60f352 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x1237d0fcbc3347f86e69117f0c201f9cb68e7213977ff5ab1fbca85b35551f52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-pol-fin-2025-09-07 | Will Finland win on 2025-09-07? | 76,200,144 | 76,241,807 |
ebe6a4fcd8ccacb111f05c775d9fd7220ecfc377 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0xa98cc87153c284cdadaebe67001ce63737f222b282fafec6afa7057a423cf13e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-pol-fin-2025-09-07 | Will Poland win on 2025-09-07? | 76,200,144 | 76,241,807 |
5d1728905cfb4568a315981ec8458bd0d6f1826e | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0xcf8d4a09d434c4d20ab2868abda980834231485751f4e685dc05f4233bb6cf0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-tur-esp-2025-09-07 | Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-07? | 76,200,144 | 76,241,807 |
b776740f1cf51aa52666f29c942ef15f84c3c870 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x558dca5c24305e70ac2d38633bef32abee9613f204d45482f17547ad9f8999a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0.000402 | uef-kvx-swe-2025-09-08 | Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-08? | 76,240,885 | 76,240,885 |
1b6a9ef8989966f8de537c3003f8d577a3d8963a | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x1a2240279f230b593d9a49341652ac1e336fc3718b846e61e046d4fdb4d724f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | yes | 0.007966 | uef-bel1-sco-2025-09-08 | Will Scotland win on 2025-09-08? | 76,240,885 | 78,972,080 |
c2e7a5fbd137b358ebacafcd9c270f057adc1f89 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x546e7cb4d75382524c1a3c745c281c999ffbefd8f9078748c1a60b83c964c04f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | uef-hrv-mon-2025-09-08 | Will Croatia win on 2025-09-08? | 76,240,885 | 78,972,080 |
63d7003af445e387aefbbcc3a2be136e3cc09c36 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x69ce7d7ecb23004c5b5c61cca2abbc69cf1468d2d6b315abd627516ac621b0d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no |... | no | 0.01626 | uef-che-slv-2025-09-08 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-09-08? | 76,240,885 | 78,972,080 |
437cf9ff1ed9e158120d98174d9d27557dce12a8 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x999c696edc9d63419d48164a6094711c78d4dcde8738dadbe036c512e59cba42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | C... | no | 0.743679 | uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | 76,240,885 | 78,972,080 |
9e8c7a1b7032a5585b725fa6040b3d9349dc8764 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x4a7e8db41ab754c34142c80298cbfec8ac1762ecfc0ee94d9c7c710fc3440a7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-far-hrv-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hond... | yes | 0.000017 | uef-kvx-swe-2025-09-08 | Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? | 76,241,806 | 76,241,806 |
18b0d59f2ea2f731637a1fbb7b15010aa5e228e4 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x76e6c2e36c1ad2e70d5dd3fdcbb1acf082b71e17db151aafb6c0b9851e5da476 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-far-hrv-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Honduras win on 2025-09-05? | Event: cof-hai-hnd-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-che-kvx-2025-09-05 | Choic... | yes | 1 | caf-car-com-2025-09-07 | Will Central African Republic win on 2025-09-07? | 76,241,806 | 76,241,806 |
bde0fa05b3016b544e234e3eec478b2014343579 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x8fdf32c93698452f42999c416b0eca0031050a77a12fe0165d300b7b90dff539 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Honduras win on 2025-09-05? | Event: cof-hai-hnd-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-che-kvx-2025-09-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00011114568532382898
3. Question: Will Denmark win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-den-sco-2025... | no | 1 | uef-lit-nld-2025-09-07 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-07? | 76,241,806 | 76,241,806 |
63185211a70c87e0146fa2c71439045e8feff813 | 0x31176050cabdf402aee60a618b38b6893e5d027a | 0x097625a2f4132d7f955ce84089c25980300f5a261101f5f52ab714c8bc207c07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-che-kvx-2025-09-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00011114568532382898
2. Question: Will Denmark win on 2025-09-05? | Event: uef-den-sco-2025-09-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Romania win on 2025-09-05? | Event: fif-rom-can-2025-... | no | 1 | cof-ber-jam-2025-09-05 | Will Jamaica win on 2025-09-05? | 76,241,807 | 76,241,807 |
89b5de4fbede68140e5512749fdbead54a6c4a2e | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xcb521462882e2f65762c29ac8f7452c9aadb4cf2db4cadd61b47ebea86f4eae0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw?
Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | 77,356,623 | 77,356,623 |
4f33b3f02185f134a424c7b7e84269890de9f640 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x2b6a5170c30fbeba1b2317cf98929a446af82e2dc2bc5e84a07959b35bc2edbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05?
Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | 77,357,734 | 77,357,734 |
a022fb70329b03df818e2dffeae8a0e0d9418370 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x8cd640da054a9c55e7591e00e6d9e55e589a194e8c4c2ec04a7b93c89cf212b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05?
Event: ... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-bet-2025-10-05 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | 77,357,734 | 77,357,734 |
9fe29e7dbd14eb1ade14973aebeceeffb91b5f75 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x8cf3b5a5e7a785020d1dc80fae5a45557ce0b0bcf05d382f35fe82f6ff1b2352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | arg-rie-vel-2025-10-06 | Will CD Riestra win on 2025-10-06? | 77,357,734 | 77,357,734 |
36c23efbe07226715971570f963f9a88bbc6b7b6 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xfb06c34003d381b4f293a93f56cae396505c780f6922df4adb620f8f87e2c56d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? | 77,357,734 | 77,357,734 |
342fe3f7239e81f5a737b3462a62a37befc062bb | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xe4d2287217961c2d8d37773d21ddb9b82b4da3a5abf94a2fd233025269a2a48f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Will Barcelona vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? | 77,357,736 | 77,357,736 |
c42c668b6405edfd8c95ae892bbe32ccd3c8dc76 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x9cf02c5067033ee542867ff450e613ad47455020663eaa410a402b9c2d3839f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | caf-mri-cmr-2025-10-08 | Will Cameroon win on 2025-10-08? | 77,444,454 | 77,444,454 |
77f2813a189c97caf605713562859b8560bc3568 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xd27d0f7dd148a0f457debf7fee24adc6c2072cb5c8ddc6fbd3392e2487c228b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-flu-2025-10-08 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-08? | 77,444,454 | 77,444,454 |
466268cda361cf192e1847567bea6a5dc2a9c1d6 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x539ba8780379de549721333e71d3bb8346167bb3feab25360b619fe5dafeba38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | caf-moz-gui-2025-10-09 | Will Guinea win on 2025-10-09? | 77,471,395 | 77,471,395 |
caa11c95ee476bf462d500bb9822c8355f183f26 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xee999b07749e2a28cf3936cb9fe5ac8f20832dee2efdd943604eaba1d01adb22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | caf-bot-uga-2025-10-09 | Will Uganda win on 2025-10-09? | 77,471,395 | 77,471,395 |
cf81a78265936b76495f0066caaa99e3d47f2f5c | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xf630055345bcc423ab1ca259649410d2bdef49849ef133b95d2ec5878c7bf502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | uef-fin-lit-2025-10-09 | Will Finland win on 2025-10-09? | 77,471,395 | 77,471,395 |
0e947f3e80fc75cdb9f896c030f2631344c5cd3d | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x0f1df346118eeddcd8a9974c94a13445da733c8ae928adc25982a365f2c3de98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09? | 77,477,553 | 77,477,553 |
9e21a432c52a4bc5248666e09eeb6c5bf2bc4ef6 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xc9af23329fd1d73cf4755219b5e2efe852eec9b4f5fd24dbe407c253810f7b14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | uef-swe-che-2025-10-10 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? | 77,526,769 | 77,526,769 |
df1de9072795d6518ca86da769d4677756ecb0b8 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x4071b1f93c8fdfaf64c11e5faf3cb9fb0d1da598d9bd8dfcf0c926b6d033fc95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | uef-cze-hrv-2025-10-09 | Will Czechia win on 2025-10-09? | 77,696,176 | 77,696,176 |
f0dbe9c52d8dbc0df8963cf3dfc6ce34c8ee8d84 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x5084f8d643efb8e3b6106a8984245479e766216c2a13dafbb113592811ac67d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | uef-kaz-lie-2025-10-10 | Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-10-10? | 77,696,176 | 77,696,176 |
c61a753d3ab012137b3d6cfca23096e21980aedd | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xa4d397d0ee7eff07014ef71ef7bc56e3a6981bfdceee726f48d1f76a4787a1dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | uef-fin-lit-2025-10-09 | Will Lithuania win on 2025-10-09? | 77,696,176 | 77,696,176 |
0337ff9d1beb38516d117475e50e2ead27283551 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xa737aadf8ee902b0b51b46c823fab415ebbeb42900a2f4c4d20f0d66fe937cff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | mariners | 1 | mlb-sea-det-2025-10-08 | Mariners vs. Tigers | 77,696,176 | 77,696,176 |
d3831cd726a162ab7f20a1b6a45fa6291dbd19db | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xc11d4f54df8e73b1b320fa9d83f0944ec3f046b3ed2c0e1fbe1b7c8e055abf49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | uef-bel1-den-2025-10-09 | Will Belarus win on 2025-10-09? | 77,696,176 | 77,696,176 |
3a3534aaef2e5cdd926613daf02a5ede5b3c5875 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xc70197e4b99ab90d1fdb94bfaae85eb48b31554bade5ee6b798a6e896d417c4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Will Norway win on 2025-10-14? | 77,696,176 | 77,696,176 |
c3f4c14297594bae5ab9f3f5210b124ed936f4a6 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0xec8f66d6bed9118ad524a55a768fcceff1225fc46ed157eca6f873bf217d17a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-flu-2025-10-08 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-08? | 77,696,176 | 77,696,176 |
4f4e42fdb109b32b9e8a04b4e31c72aa679facc6 | 0x3129bed8ee22655317249c95e8f8cda0a73105af | 0x106fc9f2ab626ad607602bf49e0b237471e7433dc83057d9cc06a3da03b16d0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Tijuana vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? | Event: mex-tij-mon1-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-esp-bet... | yes | 1 | uef-swe-che-2025-10-10 | Will Sweden win on 2025-10-10? | 77,696,179 | 77,696,179 |
6274c9e9e804bb69dd6dcbc239012d8d4d725e06 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x76dbb81a9fd937efa736aa23e6c0eb33aaf0f2ca4aa6c06da1d5529ed236ebfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day?
Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | 64,004,765 | 64,004,765 |
9f859a22eb36bd9c27460c726304e6afd2dca6df | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: presidential-election-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence f... | yes | 0.999972 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,004,765 | 64,004,765 |
1a37e41586fc1bbb55a71cdc11e433fc63805d55 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
Target... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 66,960,170 | 66,960,170 |
7c54777e3ba8a42f26896a511795d86e7b43ae0f | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x5fc28bfcb6f16080415695b53f1f60820f403a94ce16696eea2f0085d823bc92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | no | 0.548988 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,760,335 | 71,760,335 |
c9c7d5b64a72234e38d1d7c43e5aa0cfbc45eb52 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x05430b6c0a6bd59534c4f7ba50394f334a29933e8447a7e60a709d03a3eb48e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101K and $102K on May 23? | 71,993,095 | 71,993,095 |
b6915115e15884818ef611532ee3deb9d93bb7a3 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x1f85b17b2d3289fe19cd46db8e441afb02809f8a8f1bafad9f1296f76199a098 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? | 71,993,095 | 71,993,095 |
9a7320699f291a36770cd7f378a08b1c9ae4ba37 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x5a202b7f0163af31e2694878dc802b0aaa725cbb9ca7e01a4de540e16e977a8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? | 71,993,095 | 71,993,095 |
dec45a345c148a36261281a046116ab1e9b3e1a6 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x68b7dcba5b46092b51d4afac54458a62ed52335f4ab3b4304fcbd3d634ecd3a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? | 71,993,095 | 71,993,095 |
2ea830eb23c4e31941a96b3572c29ebb77464951 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x80f2cbdbaa754aeb5e794c18b3d4e1d1ba295475fcd379ff0930f1d5cb670c4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? | 71,993,095 | 71,993,095 |
d49f7a49d07cb6b915ce4372c5efbb499a61d49b | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | 72,268,011 | 72,268,011 |
2f4e136102036269ee2d09a1056057387a42db3c | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x6507f3d3c7fbb7ee64028b1a466e76588c30a3149226227b8f21666094fe34c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | 72,268,011 | 72,268,011 |
caf9541c734171fe6487f4182460ce031eea5881 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 72,268,011 | 72,268,011 |
d6fc5661ed90c2eefa3b1c997d2be5aa905694bc | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x14471b8ba9899211f6a66fcab32fc5d05333a739d4a9da01b4280849d795cc24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? | 72,284,768 | 72,284,768 |
43fc4fa582e53a8c1ee18d10676acac0aced3a79 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x83803364b3bfa1e8d63c994be75dbed0e814506e10c9a2846e8c65c141e5b7cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? | 72,284,768 | 72,284,768 |
41ad20bcb13993fe546b17dd25d753b6d25bd6e1 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x266a54731e3f36f83931b4cff3ff6c665d2ac161b54a3f2e8af95afb9640c5fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on June 3? | 72,405,139 | 72,405,139 |
6380f2f57b4556c4b29b5bca81a073021ccaf39d | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x7c6dea983844964b3ea94ee3df4c6bdddf11035b90e04a175f9e1ea8ee638c50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will another person win the South Korean election? | 72,405,139 | 72,405,139 |
0cabfb6321edd10036da29c86a4c781589eb7649 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x96f998aa7e3d4291cd5209711b9edff23aef7f322969c1868621cded6f784ec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | 72,405,139 | 72,405,139 |
ca785b497d8ca919496c657bedb301061df8eaba | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,405,139 | 72,405,139 |
aecf54e0a172c8cf531c5d75d14b7a58b82ffbc7 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xc11c84dbe1519a4165201cb2f7dd90274a5c3208f2d60c2379691e81fefc456f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 3? | 72,405,139 | 72,405,139 |
9bf7a44388fa36bb14dbd82846b94b30d7fbf4b5 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x392008f9aa20e4d125d320a0822a49fc59f7e4e20dcabe8d3d07521ca06fa4e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 6? | 72,466,480 | 72,466,480 |
74d586289a85f663f407ded561574959b3f5d934 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x6be726f0328fda6e7bbf43d94625915a6f60d3d2d74c1043501e262302d76872 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 6? | 72,466,480 | 72,466,480 |
2a91c504ec72887a0375117eef3dc9f5a5c6a798 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xfc6d67480a218f933def0b3ce51e6539b40a394d554499c928f1ce2541dc9e08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 6? | 72,466,480 | 72,466,480 |
d9044c8726311b420c8a45103097734b09389fcc | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xbaccfe7acb5924afb673413946562c78437598fd7ff1c3d4b8a550f7e320ede8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-10-267 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on June 10? | 72,852,407 | 72,852,407 |
25d717a6904ffd90b4d409f3fbd372559862ec5b | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xe25fd03804a86ea890f5cb4ac7af98c9ce86e397f1547693071ffe4db924d23e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | 72,852,407 | 72,852,407 |
b6869660a2ba7dc6fc2665eeb5ff17b310f08bc4 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xe34f990ccaa5948f76f2d740727d0e477a89f2327dc6346912e58180b882c101 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-10-267 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 10? | 72,852,407 | 72,852,407 |
e26af1e10605ded96a7bf9e46f53722bb5dc414a | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x9bef22c5cf4b6f92395318173ad43bb93f763d7d641ef134af0edde44d38a378 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | 73,005,905 | 73,005,905 |
bc4ca440e937db2ebc9e62d0ae9333761745903a | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xaa405c367d716f64112361d0d154e6b0722cb96533f2478e3be20ec922a25357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-3? | 73,288,914 | 73,288,914 |
83bd9a1fc44c742411ae1a4aa90d7ed35a027f76 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xf2a89afeddff5315e37211b0b0e4e93ed167fba2694cd35c252672d0aca73711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 0.642857 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,288,914 | 73,288,914 |
abe12240f8c83e0d417b082832a8c8abf223ea5f | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x2bd4b4e767e5ee5b0be4f7c2a304fd8ba05fdde317017b3956846b5aa0f298b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-27-888 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 27? | 73,570,330 | 73,570,330 |
7b3176c01e19c578918aea6b93e04c58eb157ec3 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x6220c4164a293367cd40eba018dd6e67c78e4d48e74158845cc9361230bcb34d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | no | 1 | who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | 73,570,330 | 73,570,330 |
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