sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8cdaa6092f47eeb32390279553e491ab927f3ee6 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x02df15291c4dc3632711f6139bbe256140d2964e8f88394552d4ae58df511a0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-zelenskyy-presser-on-friday1 | Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28? | 68,510,071 | 68,510,071 |
cd9152471e2512d7f1ae0374c9fc80586e176e00 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x989dea59f6404d98bcc4f53ebcca5e8c61a3d874230c2cb773d2f38deaed37e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-februar... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | 68,510,071 | 68,510,071 |
a3c74684e5894fc82abe2b194d4a09ad5bded8fc | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xacca55890f7b250ff8e515bb50ba2cbefd96d7dc32fab8d6b056b7cbd2f2bcd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4545395040673171
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 30°F or below on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-zelenskyy-presser-on-friday1 | Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28? | 68,510,071 | 68,510,071 |
557eae0db213e55dddd3fceeb4ae446eb13a213b | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xd44693da480fc6e613f152da332dedca79748a1402c7f92674c1ef65fa593233 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 30°F or below on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Choi... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-zelenskyy-presser-on-friday1 | Will Donald Trump say "US" or "United States" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28? | 68,510,071 | 68,510,071 |
b8354a98d3132e4fc5aa20d955e88907d81d149a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xa72907836c8dd8c82fed6c8defa0f2d045439aa187b5c2ffb9c22030e975fb00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | march-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in March 2025? | 68,514,071 | 68,514,071 |
b34692945d2c3a1372d9d136fe494b4534e83415 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xc1c3d772a1896edc70f00cda0662de0084258ce30000c9c8ebfc9b9f102e9c17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28? | Event: trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | blue jackets | 0 | nhl-det-cbj-2025-03-01 | Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets | 68,521,026 | 68,521,026 |
41a45afaeff5571113745ea06a27504104c37104 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xb7f07637b7b391bf0d3a23d34b22e03620de10ebad7e9135b895e45271f58787 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28? | Event: trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-21 | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Will 'The Brutalist' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,588,842 | 68,588,842 |
bcd8f9bd6b46b0d292f3db279622abccbada6ac3 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe514a83693f028461e240ee49667a5defadf162f56c60e658384d14de27eb562 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-21 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Will 'The Brutalist' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,588,842 | 68,588,842 |
e6407b8224a9934f5f659c09e0d730145c917993 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x31aa884804fb15142a7193d73127ee1a2ea4734fb88d14bed73333594ca8d09d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | C... | no | 1 | how-many-oscars-will-the-brutalist-win | Will 'The Brutalist' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | 68,627,835 | 68,627,835 |
b24d0b80168fc25eb4a79d7c97541f7f66959c59 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x95eba26c144e3ea5a290ff5475ae2c2118f47b56683157ff159ec994a5d89b55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | C... | yes | 1 | trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on February 28? | 68,627,835 | 68,627,835 |
86a9691b7876571294c7be5b4332d2ba2efda45d | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xcaa45def702778a64bf1dfb60b6c573fafb017184162c35b9f347b34a5a831f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on February 28? | 68,627,835 | 68,627,835 |
2e3958ecb7470d0e9b3d7741545f075bc70e942e | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xce96709d7baea7749c2f789dd53e8e3048c06433ed14029a2779b7b905c46fa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 49.0% and 49.4% on February 28? | 68,627,835 | 68,627,835 |
13fdc7ba9cf919e7a45b1e0dec69a935f2a83d5a | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe4165b7d2feae3426d359f740fadf1c62812baf5e36356fbbc38a2d3323394cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-28 | Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on February 28? | 68,627,835 | 68,627,835 |
124c254e0454dc0688bdbe46c5f751ce40300ec9 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xba597e8ed4066d657fb9448baf5b90fc7f713309c202a6f5a6161dc7fc7b3344 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Choice: yes |... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-crypto-summit-on-friday | Will Donald Trump say "Ulbricht" during Crypto Summit on Friday? | 68,629,172 | 68,629,172 |
7d02a31edeca1f01eeda68e011cdb2ec9f7c0cd7 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x8b3180a2981fffbdfae8f1014e8341d204a12c2d8da61f36c205f19549f104bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Ch... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-crypto-summit-on-friday | Will Donald Trump say "Hack" during Crypto Summit on Friday? | 68,639,170 | 68,639,170 |
9da971de932aba9e52d5e416612c04ab2985ac69 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x54672c917ec9843e84dea835a208710295ee74851abf0fa0ce4e65a587889ef9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-24 | C... | no | 0 | will-doge-sell-fbi-headquarters-before-june | Will DOGE sell FBI headquarters before June? | 68,677,392 | 68,677,392 |
a60f0518d593b0aeefc3877a7832b71022479bad | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xbc1d14b0b064021269dab5621a1227a47a992f00f452f711e06ddbfc2b8825c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5090819833087874
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-... | yes | 1 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? | 68,951,407 | 68,951,407 |
f884c3dcb6fe077a7bb54f42edebd1e7b4c8736f | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xc7f45e0eedbe8db2ae597784770cb764f547a3c202c1bcf12ceeecea07569878 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-febr... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-department-of-justice-event-on-friday | Will Trump say "Million" 10+ times during his DOJ appearance on Friday? | 69,032,839 | 69,032,839 |
6f2fcd42a9abc5b6c348691337ccd78bc9ba8804 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0xe83931dcf1368d77091a631b7d96f22e792f836aa816b4b73c181fb536149303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-febr... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-department-of-justice-event-on-friday | Will Trump say "Epstein" during his DOJ appearance on Friday? | 69,032,951 | 69,032,951 |
a56f671cedbb5cd57b093a171b3064bec4642d77 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x20e5305a6278271f8a3343422441c5a9180444e863611ce06825a63116c9db22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-febru... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-department-of-justice-event-on-friday | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his DOJ appearance on Friday? | 69,032,969 | 69,032,969 |
8de93423c0b2e58248d267c53feb1023ada2fe31 | 0x0532bef7173d81db05e0702ab05da32195d30b95 | 0x747c0feb60a0e64ac9b4105a0653a55b63dc6c5d114bfd1aa04a76ba064f1c51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6946154597869637
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-at-department-of-justice-event-on-friday | Will Trump say "Border" 3+ times during his DOJ appearance on Friday? | 69,033,273 | 69,033,273 |
13c33427bec0ebe31ce9fc83d61cc0022fc2be74 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0x2d35ab61515c4067cd052d6f9e28858bd7a507494c7b70deb48cf35a0dc0d9e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26?
Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | 78,182,893 | 78,182,893 |
202c6c1de021086b3dea25dde7ec608024b7175d | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0x33b4b6828a6edf08cc0ac1fbb894c70192a656499f55f34843ffd20ff94514d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26?
Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confi... | yes | 1 | kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | 78,189,932 | 78,189,932 |
1e9d93159a0e373670b7984a7caaaf6c351eaf46 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xea3f7c0f9e90f43af1f5c8bfb373296d887958f278d9cd0730db29b755e59ab0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw?... | yes | 1 | chi-sgr-ygb-2025-10-26 | Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | 78,198,321 | 78,198,321 |
02768a15cead98d870be5b66927ec257c114779c | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xec792bd038440c9c7afe4c9eeb91cb637272b5e2a81f8ff183fee642b0a249d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | tur-kas-bes-2025-10-26 | Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? | 78,219,736 | 78,219,736 |
04047fe661bb460e9eaa54ab9c0f5a114f460d1a | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,348,859 | 78,348,859 |
6c9baf296dfec760f5c5460abf3327e3753c8bdb | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0x8e272c6d3ca1718838395f9736f14718027ae4b0f08f9ba6a022875891f3f71c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | cdr-ebr-sd-2025-10-29 | Will CD Ebro vs. SD Tarazona end in a draw? | 78,348,859 | 78,348,859 |
4d0a7b23130f17e36297d5563fc19f7a17f333c8 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0x4f1523c3ecb88a8caefe6dff7b18bfb913520783fdd521aee8fbdf96996d8d23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | bra-san-fec-2025-11-03 | Will Santos FC vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? | 78,479,303 | 78,479,303 |
4d064882fdd4691b022f2e966ca5a58b7d379e23 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xa25959558e042119e13a9711bf0bac1c52e648bec55d9bfaadded27654eb64ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | no | 1 | bra-san-fec-2025-11-03 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-03? | 78,479,303 | 78,479,303 |
32e94c8be294588d219d11c2fc2b8874eabb5e1b | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0x776e52f8800d1c39f66e4b1a1c07cfff534eb335ea0602324ae953281291e204 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | efa-gai-ast1-2025-11-02 | Will Gainsborough Trinity FC vs. Accrington Stanley FC end in a draw? | 78,523,857 | 78,523,857 |
08b06645f82dd5b8fa84bb8967b3e04fbbfb8834 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xd77aeab4e3a0dcca1a1bbab1888333ca072e98cff0227d45a103d1e35406fc41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | no | 1 | efa-gai-ast1-2025-11-02 | Will Accrington Stanley FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,523,857 | 78,523,857 |
c5e8a0fa81272442b805ff14ae8a3648fd21de8c | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xf7c69100b4b7bcaa41bd55ac42f6903fca83ab534147de0af3cd39c620941c05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | no | 1 | efa-gai-ast1-2025-11-02 | Will Gainsborough Trinity FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,523,857 | 78,523,857 |
a6db0e76d5efe0d9887392e82c46750477ea65c6 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xf6c62ab563d147278675d996fadb4fcbc93c07d11de255fad95cc28a52f0d36e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | tur-bes-fen-2025-11-02 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-02? | 78,566,503 | 78,566,503 |
1c971b2500a63ed4a9e29b9b03f276ece5bfc290 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0x37bea11910936627707652bd6af486f7ea7eb5247cddc0e723de0aafbc67897c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | no | 1 | fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? | 78,951,632 | 78,951,632 |
fad4467b452bf752830a8384488f5b6d17768c52 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xab9cd077df16527fc2c39b4b1691a961bb6f9859b9454f8c11dd2c975d2a54ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | fif-ksa-civ-2025-11-14 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,026,649 | 79,026,649 |
e9e79ed2f310ae3042ef55f0b5837102d98370cd | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xae7234665214c9f401eab7a7f9a5d7c9babdcb412d4cdbf384b7a555fc1f2150 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | fif-tun-jor-2025-11-14 | Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,026,649 | 79,026,649 |
ff2f7e04e093dea79eb9f8fe4bf5a8d087e0452a | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xe430944bdf97ff3378c1be30d115c463dadfc4790e2cbc36477495fd9c3abc46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | fif-ken-eqg-2025-11-14 | Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-11-14? | 79,026,649 | 79,026,649 |
235f733d3513c3c93b16dc29287a1b6bdeca01fd | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xe6fe518cbb5adce1f1f9e8d367d22e1609441bf9861bb467dffdc2242e00c27b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | fif-bur-nig-2025-11-14 | Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-11-14? | 79,043,307 | 79,043,307 |
39a968a62389cf856e2de50a8383cc80585a66ff | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xab9778d7d45a9e54666b23395c4af98fda75effacc2ab1359d94e632f1d0f5a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | uef-ukr-isl-2025-11-16 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? | 79,125,844 | 79,125,844 |
c4ff8db3e90c6530587f902898f7065fcc18194a | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xaecea1d6995f18fe252614fe1c02e401ea0199286e57a0b83d4e0cbec9ad2a0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | no | 1 | fif-bah1-som-2025-11-17 | Will Bahrain win on 2025-11-17? | 79,173,514 | 79,173,514 |
13e3661a7eed3a0cfa46526e69ef965d37dfd240 | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0xd81a5549f60fa3589ccdf9a4aa8d3c01e73b28bc86fc404531562f53105ad05d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | no | 1 | fif-cha-moz-2025-11-17 | Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? | 79,176,036 | 79,176,036 |
39ed797ed6de09392930d74cce90a304a622c49a | 0x0554756f09f1c66c413b1697b1ca491fefc23de4 | 0x234d9840433da16801d679cefbc1f660d31bcce4b85eb089c9a2178992bba157 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iwaki FC win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-tok-iwa-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Seoul win on 2025-10-26? | Event: kor-seo-gwo-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? | Event: chi... | yes | 1 | fif-les-mal1-2025-11-18 | Will Malawi win on 2025-11-18? | 79,212,063 | 79,212,063 |
b2621413b3f7666b85cb0163b13b3513c5b2729a | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x6b45b2b4f37f0fbf6540e79f77b1745b9f7090da845f31666730e0f5a35304a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025?
Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.000036 | litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | 72,365,626 | 72,497,801 |
6c46e7fc617b6ba32be2410d10ef8fd74258ebf9 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0xb3af306795f672a0bcaf4bd529ffa8343e88949bc74b098ccd2a0238ce676cd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
Target market:
Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Event: nba-champion-2024-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Ou... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 72,365,738 | 72,365,738 |
de27e3cde9e9c15a53c4a648b977187d1d87b4b3 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x4f6d8832d32181a0efdf34349d7eb340b2064345f58a9659ae6d4a177f2f63eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Solana ETF approved ... | no | 0 | solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Solana ETF approved by July 31? | 72,497,801 | 77,187,312 |
d3f2e014180c9a2e678ac43e1034d510590891ec | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x08c4b6f69ddda7c59f11327c81ac741855ee9572cc7669845adb1e2c51b95214 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | giants | 0.007047 | nfl-phi-nyg-2025-10-09 | Eagles vs. Giants | 77,479,466 | 77,480,317 |
1f10b40505037da068d8cb0281a08fe128e6bfcb | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x6456e92135e988551df454d020b054f76fc3e922fb141004e55a81e901d453c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | ducks | 0 | nhl-ana-sea-2025-10-09 | Ducks vs. Kraken | 77,481,316 | 77,481,316 |
429c6f9d7704b001d27e88af8bb14278fa3dbe65 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x709edc33bc2cbf1d9fcc0de9f50272c7565d45695fdc3c83bc5fce1183155dfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | florida gators | 0.146249 | cfb-fl-txam-2025-10-11 | Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M | 77,561,180 | 77,561,716 |
a6fa39fb671fe213fc72beb3553e6dbb1bc651f2 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0xaba61ca5b2f03bb34d371d41d54e7d168e8e5c9816b77d3f850eb20ed0bdeeb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | auburn | 0 | cfb-ga-aubrn-2025-10-11 | Georgia vs. Auburn | 77,562,577 | 77,901,143 |
e32ff47884bbeae8a611595f7a83c18da90a0bc7 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x3e59974e00dcb8857a84aa7214af18ccba1173c3204ef95e70b789cdd5dbfd40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | raptors | 0 | nba-tor-was-2025-10-12 | Raptors vs. Wizards | 77,597,849 | 77,901,143 |
47814a3c4e09b88a3596f4b410fe952293fae6b6 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0xc931a0aee25adf6f2eee087df23d417f7be2ebec4fe65a4f8b2dde16ba077416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | colts | 0.000001 | nfl-ind-lac-2025-10-19 | Colts vs. Chargers | 77,901,265 | 77,904,346 |
792a9bccb1f6036fc506c175b7605f0402d06e43 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x9749a58a12438412025f32a33358e858919ec8b8d2536ef1f4afa00352357ac0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | byu | 0 | cfb-byu-txtech-2025-11-08 | BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders | 78,762,018 | 78,762,703 |
4a2bc6ef0eac46d745d77335810847d731e1a399 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0xf177528a5b2636c16088d1ca3d9bcac87146d2403b78bcf1897211174c509fa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | rice | 0 | cfb-uab-rice-2025-11-08 | UAB Blazers vs. Rice | 78,763,474 | 78,810,157 |
16f904b50f811f5b0be800bacb73d729c915d53a | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x7a7865fa7da880d2b08c07be3a6903c16fe8366e367b57c2a8406fe501be89ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | 49ers | 0.00203 | nfl-la-sf-2025-11-09 | Rams vs. 49ers | 78,809,897 | 78,813,977 |
abfd1dcb3341d61abf7cd95cb0de433bedee4cb6 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x0e194ff1505c1d6bf255ce8f061df7f2398f25f9e04ebcd5e4ea59eecadabc32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | bucks | 0.004866 | nba-hou-mil-2025-11-09 | Rockets vs. Bucks | 78,811,477 | 78,812,206 |
93d29769ef784214277b8093ac052d15372cefc7 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x4cfa84050fb82289dacb391f804dd20ec9dbec8b72ac1fd8759679759b2683b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | commanders | 0 | nfl-det-was-2025-11-09 | Lions vs. Commanders | 78,812,006 | 78,812,682 |
d5a9337d0d6a3b1d5d5a936ca4f6c0ac29b8134e | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x62db3f0e7d2845e81d48c646c49216ff77daae463a3bc609776922934daebc17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | grizzlies | 0.059984 | nba-okc-mem-2025-11-09 | Thunder vs. Grizzlies | 78,813,177 | 78,815,032 |
27f1569e342d0fbc9dbc731a827a038dbf28b5b7 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x59a0972730486da6d736e9bd72de2eed82b159a2c4a0ec8555f55a1d8713c5f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | magic | 0.052767 | nba-bos-orl-2025-11-09 | Celtics vs. Magic | 78,813,292 | 78,816,501 |
986dd65861d1ff984173cdd05fbf95e656588446 | 0x057c901ae1452e4d154a1bf8cc14be19cd201296 | 0x23e6e6f8a327a41bad1282fdc34e846f52e73e390d44b004ac92a329766e2848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? | Event: litecoin-etf-approved-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.621270401997202e-05
2. Question: Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? |... | packers | 0 | nfl-phi-gb-2025-11-10 | Eagles vs. Packers | 78,859,957 | 78,862,598 |
3a8694537ccd24a1831b059a7c59829a83724a8c | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-decision-in-october
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,416,861 | 78,416,861 |
bbb75ac0a813871dadab236fb4d77f5a7c95ed78 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xb4b05347e5705ec4f12affbac97f3011859a3919cb7c23b0509f11f2cd995d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31
Predict the us... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,416,861 | 78,416,861 |
9e3ec2b2dd256ea7f5d2af914c3938fdc2937cef | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x086d41246db853526b6b8660ccf68a1a9d091cde39d2a7340822b51e1ae63663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,416,864 | 78,416,864 |
ad4d88d63050381f7c6a8e7b6ef6485e5b7b8c09 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa42d15ddc3292a35c3380934219f6f84ae21b603847b3c2599cb5cad39b63f32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,416,864 | 78,416,864 |
f8526f711a7060c8bc76d4d0000b696b72788ad5 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xd60f4f46a5f7ab3610dc631e50776dcf8c0a1e114a47132fc326f1b8ea4a62a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | 78,416,864 | 78,416,864 |
bbd1cf9f947371a090a6e30b9e5ef629c3638a42 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x676520ebeff4370e5dfc4a8c8b24f3207a1f28a2ea6345be29f871338cdb7dd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 1? | 78,454,008 | 78,454,008 |
e87a34dca390ef3aa8741a638c5a6d937e16eecb | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x9fe246123376a8fff2eb4e6b736a78f6748714f208558e695f9a71da4bb7cf18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 1? | 78,480,637 | 78,480,637 |
3b823174284f1abe6f1898af144d63d1ea7cbfaf | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa6e1a78089fb474d3124018f41fe593ec48b1eb22e586e77ff6e2c4f5dac9a6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 1? | 78,480,637 | 78,480,637 |
80a0f2a1e3e59f471511418aea78ef4ec350c7cd | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x134758b06fa7f539eccd3a10b5838635079050889e8fd45945302daccb432fd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 2? | 78,529,496 | 78,529,496 |
6b2ce84f91574cbd3c8c619f93ecaf671ff784dc | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x708a3ccd9bd920da09fb30fd175451e018856f30647b7da8de487fb79c6911b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 2? | 78,533,668 | 78,533,668 |
083a5d0f7403ab9eda8d3f5df83a5897f5aaa4b8 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa0c8881b5c057ad027fc4322b543eaf9a2d2effc1e499336ff9cc06458097c7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 1? | 78,533,668 | 78,533,668 |
2750a39162080540d9cce4219151e4e4007073e0 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa616e86f819a10ab20667ed8c6502455bc4b436e8edabfc25ad1f718409fb722 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 2? | 78,533,668 | 78,533,668 |
0c63761175db7bb43b6c5f44d26158dc80e9f362 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xc350d6b8ced56c47ae0b08344bdd8b4586355c16b63658fe852fdbebbb8397a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,533,668 | 78,533,668 |
319debefbc2a1eba6d53a5d178858beae900cf1f | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xea4b89d30f3834cb033bc8aeefbcfd46bc99080baa6322fa24de8b2f19a5fa12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on November 3? | 78,533,668 | 78,533,668 |
f73a21d9f01c9e37d266c522bef1ed59abf755e3 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x07a043d28a85eed71a04c19b7de180ed609afe91fb671c9ab435fb5d3e497d54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 3? | 78,542,603 | 78,542,603 |
a8381f30c3c27bae21040e3d0e9f8f526f54ea92 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xbaffd983be529505d16e55f17008f2167305fac487fb648711d5ec8c502c8164 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 3? | 78,542,603 | 78,542,603 |
0c11d7d4cc89714300348f0aa0b672d2e0a2e666 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xd25c1d861a968b86dc05725ec09084652a8dbcd7410f87a835ded55974db6f1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,542,603 | 78,542,603 |
5b846cb30c08f93b8066dfe8fae13ff2b96eb216 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xd691b6a1dcfdfaf55ef90effefeada516aa93606cec171d9f63e621fb9a5e6bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 3? | 78,542,603 | 78,542,603 |
fa33ff33d5b6fb60c140ae99796e64c237453391 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x3b855cbad5c068dc78293033d6d17d86349590f7b9ecae4c2ea25b4a71a88e5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 3? | 78,568,082 | 78,568,082 |
1b19d9445e390dda9e4afd9811f5fc0d3ef5b053 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x044ecbfa2dceab8cdd5afbbf16b1a56a0a18a692b5662e9c0fba68dc96221783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,568,644 | 78,568,644 |
9d2c65529ad6111315a5fc4f7f72ef0cfb93015a | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x2d6426543d05cb0ed13c6f8bb1168f3ad0e77c62b75890929019347b87e4909b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 3? | 78,568,644 | 78,568,644 |
5c14b0b7d7df457dda9dec7ffc0ff80a679491bc | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x30dbf90d4a88f94ab56ffcee258d1adb311f725c5a63e1d274f3b5312cda55ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 4? | 78,568,644 | 78,568,644 |
1d9c9f167ca6331c21fbda98efd00c21324ae559 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x8000a37ac0f46e2208115605effd89575b24a8e431dd10226cf3622e3f82dbec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 3? | 78,568,644 | 78,568,644 |
6209caaa1e4b9f4fa27a5e4f45219a84412f1875 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x9e0d8164e90ec5dc6e23bc050adda7ca174023acf7d28e9afe8b0765da08b382 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,594,317 | 78,594,317 |
b5ce47da3bb00b970cfeaca4a92c7e492b59ac1a | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x73eb40a408996a4bbea5c021a5a80c03112c26e3ddc6b8d5426a26f7c0ec9c78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-4 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 4? | 78,617,361 | 78,617,361 |
83754d21f8e13497460011ce10ac32794edd9681 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x1d75ad5ff159721be2819200eb3693de3474869f99a01c4bc3a87655e6f3b4d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Will “The Diplomat: Season 3” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | 78,637,318 | 78,637,318 |
49881fa8812169ff3ce1da32fd130bdd709167dd | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x6dc62f8267d88fe9bfcc5181360241adf40f432e7b30b48b098169571ee9d4c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Will “Selling Sunset: Season 9” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | 78,637,318 | 78,637,318 |
1211b56b1bae5c9ffc32f6bfea0dd4efc9aee19b | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x71bb6523ffbfbb73703a0fce944db0a21178e5662aec84cd0fa0ed10005e7523 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,637,318 | 78,637,318 |
b132d10981904741e1ac8f498ad0987674f0ce8d | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x981ffe9d9d5cc32b1093521c0a94ecbbf28eedd9ef6655678dcd3c91362bda76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Will “Bad Influencer” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | 78,637,318 | 78,637,318 |
37605ef068b61dcdcc4897d53671deb6115be5e0 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xc7dab83caf1c7b52dab1e9a6dc8ae7765fe28ea22f40e8f1913dd8d3c40f82be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 5? | 78,637,318 | 78,637,318 |
c7c355f6cb43744f8b60be5cc541dcc9c145c12d | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xea0c0499ed56b50bd88fb65f2f25730d4f88192bd5b485440ec04952e352de19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Will “Boots” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | 78,637,318 | 78,637,318 |
d1598ea4ee7fcbff25527221935646a1396a45d9 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xf05c3ab43bf59dcc1cfb6d1fc2c6b1795244208451555795db6f888fcba30f3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | ... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Will “Nightmares of Nature: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | 78,637,318 | 78,637,318 |
d87b64f359cb3393f1415a93d5954c2aa2c81819 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x0e0a5a11b24c5e4daa9bcb340d2f58366bde2b41c6922165bbd03dd187d2a144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-4 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 4? | 78,637,320 | 78,637,320 |
c7c5bc85dec615f2210f2be2cffe2177da52216a | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x2b683f71fbb7539990121c9fcd66f39c1460c236490be8373052acb7e9e92366 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 5? | 78,637,320 | 78,637,320 |
6d9123487d7b085c160037bc3cae19d644930a1d | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x2e17b62a9d451b686e9cc750345f005557a7dfa85f4b51b12ebefbac7088b0da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-24-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-novemb... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,637,320 | 78,637,320 |
39b927786c4073f1123d47a08d9e7104d04d690f | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x5d630357cf73509e236d91015f2b9f82db40348fd9d7a1638b2351739896b7de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-novem... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 4? | 78,637,320 | 78,637,320 |
40a48fbaed594ad929e14bac094fde41a8ea67b4 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x5de329d30d5553e15e243bbd507a857b4422d2ef7cacbaccc0a09b4b7f4ad89e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,637,320 | 78,637,320 |
1d76acb6716c2d904e1aad35660c91e3816c5f5e | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x836f913efb4914dd19ff7d24c5b2fbbf14d4e1c91a92271aef980f79029a568e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-nove... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-3 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 3? | 78,637,320 | 78,637,320 |
b09ec3153e3120492ff34b4d70ed245cc3959459 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x8d521878e62beeea6d33e86c60ce114269ad09eee6a6f6e0fa76805a7e31746f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 5? | 78,637,320 | 78,637,320 |
3dbd33c4363a8c62e82058b1ed6c6a4f746be10e | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0xa24e28d4f88bb8ddab32c806e6b88647537ab214294f891c3add06e1c3548413 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 4? | 78,637,320 | 78,637,320 |
2dec899733e5d4ff10c4af267ffe9f91c8e85364 | 0x0594680ecb55045909f3f71d93b87d5e836190a5 | 0x3756e3800f9c83e1d3c536f460e6c31d552f0f1a3afa53cea54ffa7da2be741d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-nov... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 5? | 78,657,579 | 78,657,579 |
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