sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8464e06685d251bd16230ebda0c464b8f8e6359e | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x8fcbf91fbfa4fd14a0742998f6ac3783c3f6cf79db90d4e2cb085f44cc8971cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee-on-election-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-27-888 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 27? | 73,570,330 | 73,570,330 |
cfc002565df10cb72ce06b2cfa430141dd1307de | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xba373cb435136179b7f59355dc362d1c8ca521d02e47ad259fcc74958585b6c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999716461594835
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Geo... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-27-888 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27? | 73,570,330 | 73,570,330 |
128b3965c06df38668ce8898c01bf6b0df2faaea | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x8718ba92357d0df17ef787daf34c65f4c1a957546bfd6ae66ee5243b6bfe0f79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5489881143591391
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $107K on July 11? | 73,848,964 | 73,848,964 |
d9a6a2ac60054855220880b23e7535d35d77c5ed | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xa114e04bb00852e3c6e894e2b4e2b5f5c670fc16e580b9b7cfa6aa1224803f13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5489881143591391
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101K and $102K on May 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 11? | 73,848,964 | 73,848,964 |
08caad6ffaa2e660ad3ceaf8f0f17398d4e558a4 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0xc4ea102576bc68a45a642887ef7722cbcbb93992297087822c930e372eb74e4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101K and $102K on May 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $105K on July 11? | 73,848,964 | 73,848,964 |
a2304d0eda8cb8676021bec16ad60b7e62fd1156 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x9274f0d03d3ac85a150d2001bc4e08a9b94e5c9a8635b51f6598d2fa8b9e0d99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | yes | 0.680657 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch? | 74,114,919 | 74,312,135 |
ab1e8ebd5eac45fec727abd937f3d3136f779699 | 0x314a5b0baa811ba06ae0d822d998817d6bca2fbd | 0x64f71be39edfa1d3140d92ce3c46381c6288646fad15ecec0a2fbad2d171eb03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the p... | yes | 1 | nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-mov | Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | 74,312,110 | 74,312,110 |
7c3e1eccc0cba4253f7f80a82fb585d727bd3022 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x91eeb357e37173cd8cf6b7617df2af7bd72d93e4602c056ebac317f724a1f568 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28?
Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | 70,655,993 | 70,679,593 |
5fcb2b92ee9b83f96f2ef6db9aac609029150aef | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x4f6d8832d32181a0efdf34349d7eb340b2064345f58a9659ae6d4a177f2f63eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31?
Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the targe... | yes | 0.333131 | solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Solana ETF approved by July 31? | 70,692,444 | 70,706,608 |
54fb1ffa9e530e2ce2d263a734fae0c55c658948 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x80026f98f9de40aea8dba02798c4f0067942bba401fa3715209ee7c27482640b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
Target market:
Que... | no | 0 | us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | 70,862,898 | 70,862,898 |
b68cf1e92a931dd5254585080d5da93f569fa2d5 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x6614828eb735b658bb9c448b6d217f639f3ee17a3d0776cd41b1b86398491b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 0.000027 | will-india-invade-pakistan-before-june | Will India invade Pakistan before July? | 70,865,462 | 71,352,895 |
8a029838c32e1a188af941da4ced6965660eacb9 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x6767550e239bc46ea3a955881a7e81b92eb4bf8b0278f216a8aea882eb47c084 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 0.000193 | bitcoin-above-94000-on-may-2 | Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? | 70,865,474 | 70,960,323 |
f7ef3f14438653cb57d68537e1a7f7e42c76fe3a | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xfac98674a774531c2b7def1ce530ef2eaa78a1c444f794923826f2660b1eaa14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | pierre-poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-in-2025 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? | 70,903,891 | 70,903,891 |
9d01221a16bd3ead9d36bf27e007dfbef03fe33b | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x21652ff408b028121573b13b62e02f24a7a006ccc31894434bf274166679a563 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 0 | bitcoin-all-time-high-by-june-30 | Bitcoin all time high by June 30? | 70,986,300 | 70,986,300 |
e34adb89b2038fcb4f43c532b887d244e08fcaa2 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xd93a765102baec5f5399b160a821ec455e7e0f2440be5e44add98ca0fc02e108 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 0.733478 | april-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April? | 71,177,589 | 71,177,589 |
61aa43c4bd35d26e2eea3ee9f340563afd0b6272 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x24e164a68c9cb5be4376eebe2183646ed11d9a6032d33d8dd8e2f732f3029700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 1 | april-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April? | 71,177,612 | 71,177,612 |
fc34a7019287133c3eb1e0dfd6cc7233165561ce | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x264603d73262d18b7f7cea8a616620d59354d341b84f30ac520b4929e487d42d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 0.007407 | of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | 71,179,705 | 71,179,705 |
219d09d14a4f900a2127d4cea6c91fc0a215f213 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x95ba5bd573457c91f4d74e7ce06fad25c0edb1d2354b7605a7d743021e2a3200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 1 | of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | 71,179,726 | 71,179,726 |
b77bc9bb2e754df5228c54b67a2536246ae1dbfb | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x5cea1edc2de5ada3f4716dd4404ba0cd97203bdc6476f192af7a8d372c2151c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 0.000021 | crunchyroll-best-main-character | Will Sung Jinwoo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? | 71,182,090 | 71,186,047 |
5816e5788c5ca683887a133a8a7367c9813519ec | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xac852c5c78df67e52bf0280dfd7dab98f1ffa05706afc5e44d891aa43226b609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 0.000369 | ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 9? | 71,187,840 | 71,187,840 |
72f74afca6723e1fad65f55ce80126ba261309e7 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xb13e67e43f3ea7015f472f56660e58fb41e761c0dee63862b379feefafb6efbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 0 | pakistan-military-strike-on-india-by-friday | Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? | 71,229,543 | 71,229,543 |
b2f668724e063bae00f1b05f677c4eed09391ed2 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 0.599701 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,266,323 | 71,269,523 |
3c07c2b71d7cda8e75d52d3f11b2cc2b59fd8508 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x49ac6b66581bce72d76268430e0d9acd3fc9bc7e7841cec7cbbdd270bc1a489f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 0.058846 | pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-by-friday-956 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | 71,267,842 | 71,270,482 |
8c05d6ec361b18001ae078cef526a670cef585e3 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x26b5bd46c8d60f0a0de64b70d0d5eb3c484bae09b54072df64c7969e3bba4b10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 19? | 77,913,494 | 77,913,494 |
eeffcc1b56da2d8c3f41abe73a056b3cb2004c28 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x6d272e159b3b29f613e54978092943020bed10189d3188a6d38c1641d16f2762 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 19? | 77,913,494 | 77,913,494 |
12bc67b59f2466f106636156d58d737dc3452f64 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x2f9603980c27a630ca7b63b5d6059cd716e1c8e327de93fb190af36c8313098b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 20? | 77,958,620 | 77,958,620 |
e3dfab9effc81998eee61566119a68893fb39d91 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x6c6b594e31a59b6e227f6fe9960f8faa2e144f92220fddf3b5a7727b194105df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 20? | 77,958,620 | 77,958,620 |
753123eac59978417833aa3fe994d4b33a0ba190 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xaeee018d3844da1e1236a2afd4aa334aefab0d487227e02e56cc23ddbd301ddc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 21? | 77,999,447 | 77,999,447 |
a532223c66f86bff5ba0f8b1bfb2070a1e0b96a8 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x0fadd635e9af266ec58bbafcd749c56bbd61560b0aec2a48cfd4fc45463d9e5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 22? | 78,043,201 | 78,043,201 |
04fc14b89d364adc89865464e97f3db24bdfead6 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x7b860846ecb81a4103a4f5787f74b937ecb4d34cbf6948c0736985ab6fea1719 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 23? | 78,090,860 | 78,090,860 |
16d30aa5cc8f60eb6bcaacf45334c16eeb8eb457 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xd1f1303f021357aa5a9da9f237d97ad9bdce40cfab151bfb14284abef49461cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 24? | 78,114,907 | 78,114,907 |
281ac7f28a7e4fc72d1a0d579e1bd87cfbc9fc33 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x11f2180b8f72b08cdb8660d761ff2c3cf7378d58cafbad52f756dd47929bdb0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-26 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on October 26? | 78,201,375 | 78,201,375 |
f68ffaf1f0bda2f09bfce81131fc49fb9ebd7e83 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x2d99617f9fbe6a33b5c172f8d52887f385fdbaff3598ad242be1788322d4c87f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 26? | 78,201,375 | 78,201,375 |
a133d4309b9fc2cfc9078cff3da24cc1a0f2a4b3 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xc92b960cb5bcef9931df81bc0a1b36a130b2a731ead20e5b74d59d464b64a676 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-26 | Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on October 26? | 78,201,375 | 78,201,375 |
f4160f02633b8f522d41a220da9f9cef229afc2e | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x6b5c9f30471b0f68fe81b2a59942956c33e89c3182c45e5beb15febdaf316bb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on October 27? | 78,244,776 | 78,244,776 |
13d8197c03215d0ab83dacaf4cbd716319da348d | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xa18e0e187295accf2967277723b648b42daa866a26148286033d4ad8c2d5c43f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October 27? | 78,244,776 | 78,244,776 |
dab6b7ad245b39c94b90e0c89e84ab77437a3ae2 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x4cd59e34d0be180a2ec29d37e7ad08907c72b322c8a8a0cab417c75e0587d83d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.60 and $2.70 on October 29? | 78,338,548 | 78,338,548 |
93fa7c063f25d604d61c77b53b54d68264174c44 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xb9f04267c9971493ab7565253f7b152338fb1ac5948bfd8aa6ac064d6efe612a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-22-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
3. Question: US nat... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-october-30 | Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 30? | 78,381,204 | 78,381,204 |
a082027e9dce81e10adea6515c356ee3fa22f619 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xd94b7d3c74953c268983bb0fb0fb8d320a1ef3adc255b1d2197f67e5c87ec7cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Event: solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3331310386649485
2. Question: US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Event: us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will India invade Pakistan bef... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on November 1? | 78,480,331 | 78,480,331 |
47ed1668a4d5d13559278e8221a331b96c94737f | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xfaa6ef00129f2a3c88b15364c28c5611b9b44f751fc1f6de4aa9764b758d17f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Event: us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will India invade Pakistan before July? | Event: will-india-invade-pakistan-before-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.678053278385638e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin above $94... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 29? | 78,480,423 | 78,480,423 |
f523376f2a63d671aac457a87922ea953436f441 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x080314e8b7f47cd6fa27cc78acf8a1f1bbe98be9ca6a9bad01d9f7fefd7f0f45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will India invade Pakistan before July? | Event: will-india-invade-pakistan-before-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.678053278385638e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-above-94000-on-may-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00019251705568287784
3. Question: Poilievre ... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on November 2? | 78,517,312 | 78,517,312 |
98208b924e731f5e047c0dd8225c2d548db2b418 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x33d69f67c1dcc990843b589aa8c7026a4b54c211d3de9b2055ee88bd3fa2dfab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-above-94000-on-may-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00019251705568287784
2. Question: Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? | Event: pierre-poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on November 2? | 78,517,312 | 78,517,312 |
2a193d4b3751c6417821333a80821b565a80b8a6 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xaaf3a53bbb48f49adaa72cd2827ddb8ca41aaa9a897833483af1760ada07cc2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? | Event: pierre-poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin all time high by June 30? | Event: bitcoin-all-time-high-by-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will annual i... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on November 2? | 78,517,312 | 78,517,312 |
ba07d645426360be2ea95b5a36c2bea3fdef8599 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x88f860126fc129f792a8da0ab66a404e554c694167b3564b9b1a9b00855f6847 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin all time high by June 30? | Event: bitcoin-all-time-high-by-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April? | Event: april-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.733477789815818
3. Question: Will annual inflation incr... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 3? | 78,553,382 | 78,553,382 |
57a452acd38aad0b90918502ce887b970de0c43b | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x8b570fe34d39d905ee5f544314f96870d630225dedd4243c6327ee14691bf4c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April? | Event: april-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.733477789815818
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April? | Event: april-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Libe... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-3 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on November 3? | 78,553,382 | 78,553,382 |
3a9c671c550edbafc9a9ebe8a6ac7b5c62e1ce0e | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x341b66ac94b785a2551250c9e83306594d3d7a33debd3c564d4fc488fe1f7b3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April? | Event: april-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | Event: of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-november-3 | Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on November 3? | 78,553,439 | 78,553,439 |
7a1ea36daad5456f1c49f959cadb7bf02ee2020f | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x078dce10d2e69854c0b57f0e738e3e0af6b8db67bf531a84d18e2af9cc00b4b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | Event: of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0074073656186574265
2. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | Event: of-seats-liberalnational-coali... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,300 on November 6? | 78,692,062 | 78,692,062 |
c7ceedea4dfb699404fb7fea2d5253a20b600a1f | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x5084a954610dcbaeed9e0988b86bb438d2788e5a3aa1286b9bfd830801d45107 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | Event: of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sung Jinwoo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-main-character | Cho... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-november-6 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 6? | 78,692,062 | 78,692,062 |
912782137f61d4a491aa122b7bbdb133fbc96e24 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x869f91468f98800dee5033a64d98db200fb8bc63a95187762f870516135b2374 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sung Jinwoo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-main-character | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.100288369593145e-05
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 9? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-6 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on November 6? | 78,692,062 | 78,692,062 |
ed4915cea28f1e44761b6ccedd1fb49e9050789d | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x9e71f262c9abe3bfe0e221e0c5b7253f53a237f51b069d4b2003404748cc6b77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on May 9? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0003692613035786835
2. Question: Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? | Event: pakistan-military-strike-on-india-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November 6? | 78,692,062 | 78,692,062 |
bd46f19315a9057f8b6eecd1468f23bb25ad470d | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x94b105a3278a360d321f898763026ad87f3506cafa6e3a2c66c51da8b5f00780 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? | Event: pakistan-military-strike-on-india-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5997009554190433
3. Question: Pakistan air/missi... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 10? | 78,862,077 | 78,862,077 |
b19bf6a6bbd789cba9c65fa62d254852a4d7759e | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0xe158ae9b491bd52244f97b4fa6566d3624968c6eeac6d7ab395dba55aa5f924e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5997009554190433
2. Question: Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | Event: pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-by-friday-956 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.058845852326... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on November 10? | 78,862,077 | 78,862,077 |
382fc8c0c7b6219e6de7e591c711dafc284573b9 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x1b911007465885f46e28ea4e8c16002db81e3a89cf5195fe1a2f7ab4cbe9e0e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | Event: pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-by-friday-956 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05884585232626804
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-19 | C... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-november-13 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 13? | 78,992,128 | 78,992,128 |
7319484dd69c7f9e933275706a56eca90362c820 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x5ffefacfc3d21b46646b328b8b33312de68f2a263576b99a009ff30b7cd87a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on November 13? | 78,992,128 | 78,992,128 |
6ad861969acd45fd1b9edc1dca37e941a7b112ed | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x884cda9d17b1e179cd54d6afb269dcf48bf5dd12f746c31e106dcfffb055ea83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 19? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November 13? | 78,992,128 | 78,992,128 |
ee9cac95cca66fa759823b124d2da472569ee3e9 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x508f97e1d0c9ce24d5a2b555f3c0a2ff037c304ead4db5159f830b10f4d6a0d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-20 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-november-15 | Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 15? | 79,081,190 | 79,081,190 |
dc607c57eb9def4a7ffc30173b24b1ed8d537049 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x9ddcc62a6fdb70b74342cd267ca0d1839d4427587146bf6672457f84b1cadf3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 15? | 79,081,190 | 79,081,190 |
5574a6e2537b07422c525b4d0187d7f5e6bf00d7 | 0x31627efae60552ccf2753a29da4a90e37cc97c61 | 0x226a08c95318690d0e2544c438104b30cb58e300f5de1b2bc9fa803f2dbb6528 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 22? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-20 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on November 20? | 79,294,633 | 79,294,633 |
4c68f0bff1a3b197290aea750789e3f6e794d7af | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x944c07dca55b99374ef47307082836a747bdd92447d0702d772a084d4c3ceb60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12?
Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | 67,881,986 | 67,881,986 |
5bdaec427fa47a6d026bf40b0e9d3051a0e7e5ff | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Event: germany-parliamentary-election
Predict the user's c... | yes | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,322,505 | 68,322,505 |
9eff5c91533cceba8d31a249b50b485c3eeb0338 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x3b50032646e20987a7fd310cfc82095aef7b50b9a7165d31cfbfc61217e0e670 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-che-sou-2025-02-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-25? | 68,444,696 | 68,444,696 |
aa3cce80c767760387f20cb6fbb0861bf9694a7d | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x444ddf4d35e67e6b1c97ad264c018ff1c0d73ea0702773697d1beca4fb3f484f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | 68,854,419 | 68,854,419 |
bbfca65275cef2db1c3582b8aff8550e48287e71 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x289c940a68bd70174374b58864dbacbc9db57479587468745a35164a83483480 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? | 68,955,133 | 68,955,133 |
6ea36cfac68d0ca5d1f1ed38eeed091171b13608 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x9f6cdaa61fbaf166db9067f7589c1c1ca7a7cff3d778d4d57feab0e1e834bf07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-fey-2025-03-11 | Will Inter win on 2025-03-11? | 68,955,133 | 68,955,133 |
2bc2aeecd387dd22a6ae427a9c92c97ecb61f958 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x5725fa7eb459352b0af04801928f4109c3e4fc36f255995accfa30f50fc0f093 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? | 68,996,387 | 68,996,387 |
19c91ce3186d9f324d250519114c654731a18fb4 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x7350af3e8ecb7f7e41742d92733abd4e22e2f409d7f23f2d8d09bd8569661d2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo-fcsb-2025-03-13 | Will Lyon win on 2025-03-13? | 69,060,252 | 69,060,252 |
d02b7fa27d8434b2c999cea33fc65c1387b7af2d | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0xbc214905bf66a31767a58c8f36f6d3175245799c86a3ec1b082165443395bfbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | uel-laz-plz-2025-03-13 | Will Lazio win on 2025-03-13? | 69,060,252 | 69,060,252 |
66a42a390e4aad3d0b44a9f7c6a164e8809ab8fb | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x2be736ecf65fa3a0a0ac15c9795a0d52bb40c4ffbb242cb4baa4ab98b89b9654 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-ips-2025-04-02 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-02? | 69,841,588 | 69,841,588 |
0a0796850700aec2d07fa2fa7f452d0e25789fdc | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x5de5b7734c862a614da14313f3eb57d6a3f55e9466c6b413d64fed1670ee8d83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-lei-2025-04-02 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-02? | 69,841,588 | 69,841,588 |
6578eded98f71e1c4efcbb43eea7892c2faefddf | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x130ceb9fec2b69491404cc5e56c7740d0c54b0e3761ddce90533fbfaf2131d57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-new-2025-04-07 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | 70,102,558 | 70,102,558 |
886f988c1a5db91d1ce80e87a0fa69f85ce060d3 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x486bfa956c8f009a314aedc893d63bf026bb0f5c63d27b5fad88cbe0079c65fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-fra-2025-04-10 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-10? | 70,178,141 | 70,178,141 |
fc83618b019c591e59194d1c9363699b300f51de | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x5c89fdddb177ad8fea8119eb3eb2328b4a0901db93021351fa7bba39e76f3e36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-ast-2025-04-12 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-12? | 70,241,678 | 70,241,678 |
db2fbb7734f8e55e85202ce999c8ed03868d0098 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x79e3b601da5c99f34dadb2e73d00ddde68c3b3b4fe2573348d27d3ca698e5416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-cry-2025-04-12 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-12? | 70,241,678 | 70,241,678 |
00ed941e700199c9172c0337929debc97738d370 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x98c8a829db98c7625c3d9040b05f089867a1fa56f886d7593eb0ea0026781a2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-bre-2025-04-12 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-12? | 70,241,678 | 70,241,678 |
363bf18bad81743b87f65b5c08dd063afb37c206 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0xbb3b626b20d855cb0dada539824d41944f558038b139abce12b6f41f32abc649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-lei-2025-04-12 | Will Brighton win on 2025-04-12? | 70,241,678 | 70,241,678 |
00326f2feb30278791779ae9557448d86660f05e | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x2a085b3155e80b4b4189ccaf36427f2e31d0cd43114e3fe163d281acaaa98c39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-wes-2025-04-13 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-13? | 70,288,793 | 70,288,793 |
d57bdc0f056a76cf8a19e5786c81b33f6fb20c52 | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0xd7493643e6c8873a621b2697b1285a76792579afaade17dad2e2ae75b08443dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | uel-ath-ran-2025-04-17 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-04-17? | 70,447,210 | 70,447,210 |
1affe2085e7845941b3e0f381c2bc06273dafb7c | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x1ea56a85883beb97fe545df42fa5ef204327eb46261ceccea975ecd3d04bc2f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | 2025-barcelona-open-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Barcelona Open? | 70,815,667 | 70,815,667 |
906cb78e437d149b3708d4f0a4d83567cb0030eb | 0x31799b1705b5d3cb3388f2fd79d6ff50c4f45e46 | 0x7bea701c4e4fe2cc6a58fdf12872de78ed50e2afe376aa3f8bcc19ba6ddb6442 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-ars-2025-04-20 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-20? | 70,815,667 | 70,815,667 |
b352174598c5943a67d9a085b5d3e7fb682bb0a6 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xe204f4c7fbca4873a35148e597ad18306b6a01d5b967d8919908380cf0ae1e1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19?
Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | 77,945,805 | 77,945,805 |
8a73735721e751973c97d6c608b72b2e9b43708f | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x3015e7d8df46660be0acf4ac1b4cdee8fbb43ad7682df19730e0f59ff275487f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21?
Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "con... | no | 1 | ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | 77,990,653 | 77,990,653 |
3892787ca06351879e487f0f0b302ec4e021e4f4 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x05f98fe943442a06f41c6d8bfab64772d15cd1e1f9476e1d380bacbb43b6b079 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22?
Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025... | yes | 1 | ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,048,664 | 78,048,664 |
25f074e934acbfa16c851c9e738d6279678d7b2c | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x5e65e02946fafe079d48d7343f3ff08cc92a10602f71bb9f5adf5ee29b3edc1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | 78,048,670 | 78,048,670 |
2516af1c77dd5820f669dc04d7f0952f98955942 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x8f01a558f32d1f48c94045e1f280d74e24e00c82163028b41ca23d42f04d94ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-juv-2025-10-22 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? | 78,048,670 | 78,048,670 |
d9355501e6ec683097a9b1e1acfbe0caa586427f | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xd8c129ebb8f207cf360e34a4e1aaa5c342465c9aafc08db3ff264f3d62ba7e61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | ucl-spo-olm-2025-10-22 | Will Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? | 78,048,670 | 78,048,670 |
b0fd26dd06a443053515d7f95df2f4c8a6438ffd | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x99e3093706de6d738f6ed2f4db939558002f6cf5914226ccfccdedbfd6c93d03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 78,128,597 | 78,128,597 |
521777574a8f29f6dc98ffe29656245e7ef9da04 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x5846db288826e528aea2b9c1d8acecffa807b79fd49d9031d1ed2e75594872f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 78,176,129 | 78,176,129 |
9f840a7c94efb78c6700151c8f0bb98bc819dbc7 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xbd9a8d91124fc5f4bf4ec2732575310aa978940622a79ca476d7e631cf443203 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Will Chelsea vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? | 78,176,129 | 78,176,129 |
9621c9961831a61655b862cc972c65545b97fc50 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xd5129d7d92575a15de160c10e7c80c6e04e416e3583258ca7027cfb8b0f3ca3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | epl-new-ful-2025-10-25 | Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 78,176,129 | 78,176,129 |
cac77be8a54d46cca25839afca197d8371cc5a35 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x4bdf0155cbd6d59d298ec0ce3b6d6f70c1a0e542f935e457f8c08075627dc925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | 78,201,550 | 78,201,550 |
e744ad09e379a43b076354a05714191040c09ffa | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x149a8242ec4eee7c05a9054413f77fd5555882addf8a40ddcdf7f61e3350ad19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? | 78,308,209 | 78,308,209 |
76fca569a60ed5cc634c29b358859ae9f2c6223d | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x4e51de3129b76add333dcfe7a46d60c2c98f059b5e1b1753cf5418d3e475e96a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | 78,348,673 | 78,348,673 |
c4db39c5e0b1db4aff37f792e3e80775b4ab3503 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xb627a6902c1d37d1c156ff533f3ba77453c5b576e01f9653ff5946ec21ca6e51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-10-30? | 78,394,557 | 78,394,557 |
c21df24ca0a8aaa837a1175020b38c7b9e661496 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x5c3bb05bf0d50d28555f6c6cadae000d8942a14fb99359bde7dfaca01bf49722 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | 78,394,562 | 78,394,562 |
5d574682bac8d4b1a5237ccf306d6f372a0e088e | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x5a0f9776be6c742291ec44debf3b4c56f6c3b9271e96b073eeb80ea6b38caeb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | 78,394,619 | 78,394,619 |
c0b309706c30c1e849d0b728f7b11d485ed481b1 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xa497879fa6951974311092a53f5959cd92fb68d076328f052195916ffef732da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-ray-2025-11-01 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01? | 78,457,654 | 78,457,654 |
2563cf165df8045d00f202168f78567b82f3b754 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xd0484014d434e3960d7b908afb5994db5eb488650640a28ef132a7b2b689dc5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | lal-vil-ray-2025-11-01 | Will Villarreal vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? | 78,457,654 | 78,457,654 |
47ed75bec1469dbaaf5eb87a9e6474c406c0b732 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x51957460aeafdc44ff72f1069294e28df0a77b941de5c6cd32825befbdaba20e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | lal-rso-bil-2025-11-01 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-01? | 78,467,142 | 78,467,142 |
8b9879ad25a7a3baf220c671db6f71b02d03831a | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x2f422e5f45d7dbc197aed6a20fd0b5fe5cf050adad623a77242a89dfc3f31042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | lal-get-gir-2025-10-31 | Will Getafe win on 2025-10-31? | 78,467,189 | 78,467,189 |
90987ad3bdc2fea6827a298b51ca8a1b581b54dd | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x7313ef7f8ee13603355872b5e985d614c5aa0c2a00d201aeb24a121bb35b7d7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-val-2025-11-01 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01? | 78,483,796 | 78,483,796 |
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