sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7b089359219d7e5d034b2f9fae32f6ced33f2736 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x648087110d9eeed1eb2bd36580e136e9a1b715417357997596462a8dfd2cd48d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-02? | 78,502,244 | 78,502,244 |
4d59be8a99f1a02428c3fc4627495c9c67a88bbc | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x17f6b6f3b0bfdd37c3b69cc0644132a50ea18ae43fa41a617728321d87da6f44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | lal-ala-esp-2025-11-02 | Will Alaves vs. Espanyol end in a draw? | 78,507,627 | 78,507,627 |
260cfb3fa4261ef12169b692be9ec310878debed | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xe1374d4613cd2a4ff444dbd587df4950e6c393f13d86c2b1a750f5214fee6fd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | lal-ala-esp-2025-11-02 | Will Alaves win on 2025-11-02? | 78,507,655 | 78,507,655 |
21dbbce3db95279215ac39b93c0169a20dff0f39 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x617458741c0a2f568b12b3d72a98d96827ed4330773bac45fc891aa9886c597d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | 78,516,325 | 78,516,325 |
37b794b4cf1a8469739df18e652ef6aaf637985b | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xd441bd6fbe29196d13db20819e0c5d62e05a82620e58e080c835e221fdb8e249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | 78,650,899 | 78,650,899 |
9d087d7b08130a68164ae9471e2e4b031071f49a | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x913f246b986a8ac34bbefec30e4426e5e444a1e89eca5ccd2438148aa49bcfd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | lal-elc-rso-2025-11-07 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-07? | 78,744,719 | 78,744,719 |
9940c91552649db1930c89087559113f35403453 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xab65c13b29f0affa6bc0a5a95058bd0b3791341c870cb3f095e601e5af3777da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | sea-pis-cre-2025-11-07 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,757,271 | 78,757,271 |
23c85e9ca8f19bc940575949756be737bf1c227c | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x2e87c0ef5645037e72a91cf4303f644645fc0c81ee39f83dbec1f23737990731 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | sea-lec-ver-2025-11-08 | Will Verona win on 2025-11-08? | 78,767,044 | 78,767,044 |
1c66f980864e998c0ca7ae39e326cc767bcc70fb | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x3577cc620d44d46e2f2cba80bc31e07b1f1ead4d69d68e3530d0ac40b5e9866c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | epl-eve-ful-2025-11-08 | Will Fulham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,767,044 | 78,767,044 |
a38df8b33aed15837f55e8fc02406d5e5d22dbff | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x6baa96a2e7f0a46e00b8449b40f13b9c199b41eaa713e31d0b4c82b68d238331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-cel-rso-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? | 78,767,044 | 78,767,044 |
87561a46fce7c83ac4193142e422b1b350f434db | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x940aa35bf6a44e724a0ede0380c6a86e7d9ecae9634869428626ca02ba48164c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 ... | no | 1 | sea-com-cag-2025-11-08 | Will Cagliari win on 2025-11-08? | 78,767,044 | 78,767,044 |
61e461d3b3757256513f9b11ef7a9cfbfff6f9b4 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xa73b664e66d53d6cafffe327a31e88e3d4700769b41f42d745d8885f36cff743 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ata-slp-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-rma-juv-2025-... | no | 1 | lal-sev-osa-2025-11-08 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-08? | 78,767,044 | 78,767,044 |
05bb7ff07a5df860d07e819290afb86e15e30397 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x0fbf99e9ecb2e787a4c74acd89925542c280cc0a21fb07536d8d793fd9b05c14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-rma-juv-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? | E... | no | 1 | lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Will Girona win on 2025-11-08? | 78,767,086 | 78,767,086 |
e47ec0b3ef058d731de8696ed19a5bdf7752c784 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x0e7976c86255fd38adce1e53f1744cdbbb2406be3403fa4f1bb567189b89334f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-rma-juv-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? | Event: ucl-spo-olm-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a dr... | no | 1 | epl-ast-bou-2025-11-09 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,449 | 78,809,449 |
e52f99d2d9efbbbc972f02a052cf82f8959340de | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x55d03e0ea78038800bea3744b2fc248a0a4e728a2bb3af026fa3cfa35f9bbdad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? | Event: ucl-spo-olm-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Brighton ... | no | 1 | epl-not-lee-2025-11-09 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,449 | 78,809,449 |
c6911fd91a1760dbbc61783a919b4afaa0390465 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xafbef5a84d713a2aa81f87699a548be786cc2616c0073158ef99045cd1e66839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea vs. Sunderland AFC end in a dra... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-ovi-2025-11-09 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,449 | 78,809,449 |
2be4213ab02239739a64d6c35f719f05dec9a5ed | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xf08d0fb8c099af4410421312db39a884845c829330444856a93e3b2ee2f41641 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | ... | no | 1 | lal-bil-ovi-2025-11-09 | Will Athletic Club vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? | 78,809,449 | 78,809,449 |
20cfaeb9a0ca9f2b568ab9ad473c2d1fd67720fa | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x5469c4eaa3e8dc2f4df9631757e0c04e7393fa2b84cd6dd05cfb74ffd332cf8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-... | 76ers | 1 | nba-lac-phi-2025-11-17 | Clippers vs. 76ers | 79,174,254 | 79,174,254 |
1002c493bf5b710e21baaeaa5b2b25e25fd1d9a1 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x23dcf25f55983932be3638dad0c80ae1ff2f48ba9749a9f28f8a9bcb161363c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-ful-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | ... | no | 1 | lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-21? | 79,345,508 | 79,345,508 |
9107f641793b2e9418a6a6aec11ed923c50f4515 | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x6641d50514493c1161bfaed7ea2f505214d51ebcec1fda81e42b3a2e6fcdd391 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | lal-ala-cel-2025-11-22 | Will Alaves win on 2025-11-22? | 79,370,033 | 79,370,033 |
3861a00af4c6bcaaac14da04e83856b8ffb8a7fe | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x33288d1ac83bd8d463b918e13e1b78028fe9a121d408f82224ca4883efeb554e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-10-30? | Event: sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | ... | no | 1 | lal-get-mad-2025-11-23 | Will Getafe vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | 79,417,545 | 79,417,545 |
6271804a6cb7e5d64e5cf78b671bc2926debb3ee | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0x60aa2715ac57bdf1c2dbc3fd798c204d72964fe785332db510e1915654528eeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-10-30? | Event: sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10... | no | 1 | sea-tor-com-2025-11-24 | Will Torino FC win on 2025-11-24? | 79,459,646 | 79,459,646 |
d27a5b85020a26311700a90f32641c5c86d97acd | 0x318352c5346926bde4f9f08d81b1478728a9a303 | 0xbbb75d91cbadaf9d3105992c6bf34394a2f8459eb7171d4437921e5652c9ec40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-10-30? | Event: sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-1... | no | 1 | ucl-fra1-ata1-2025-11-26 | Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,551,417 | 79,551,417 |
ba4131567d2f5f74296cf6dcc8f694b703a2adf5 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x21133a92321c5791d36ec7cac67ac6fab6c8ca3fa070ef973f92f65234025ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | 73,650,228 | 73,650,228 |
e4aa074d32546ff77ed0d4e8eabb03cfd019e8bb | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x5d4e8d237be6d11bb1c5630e41309a25620ed5c649772d9a26ae895beaa724dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more?
Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice a... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | 73,650,228 | 73,650,228 |
29390397bbd6dfa856426a7f6db741f4dd2792c2 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xcd1b6b71a1964f15e2c14809594cbfa0d576270e8ef94c8c24913121097e09e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 73,650,228 | 73,650,228 |
0846b70431f170dec08fb14ef4cdd87cf5b5ad20 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xe90fde5bbf32a779f5ad8cd47f890acd9f86b73e34e0f620698122052189a079 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | congressional-district-2nd-maine-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Maine's 2nd congressional district? | 73,650,228 | 73,650,228 |
764120ea94dff08761fc34ad397bcebbc7f504d5 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xd7e3207efc687db480ff6f6d156092c527cd22999bd733ab189c47be7bfb0366 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-10-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on July 10 at 5PM ET? | 73,822,069 | 73,822,069 |
a6d093fe45f1f9c0655da360913b64f563957009 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xde06878256790b72bd3b9303f7e21283e4aef768ee12190aa235ea6fda208b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $112K on July 11 at 5PM ET? | 73,859,155 | 73,859,155 |
84e4b18291f0a2ca16d8e3e0283f77e9205e7e6e | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x8d704639fbee07b5a80c390e42d63e011ec8e5bb088e17782990555f061b24f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-12-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 12 at 5PM ET? | 73,893,505 | 73,893,505 |
398e03a0bc5d73e417657610c1fdc82f02b19cbb | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xc6284fb7a24aae80081bec272035b30ae6b984c1460f8e84e858911079865637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Will England vs. India end in a draw? | 73,966,426 | 73,966,426 |
352a28023e1e7d41ed9cde2fe84873caf0bd1922 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xbccbcf6a3645b6062d9887acba9980d2cf36ee00380b9bac707683bb44cb02d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | 74,010,755 | 74,010,755 |
7320027faed1e2c7a1973219bea342e1287afb9b | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x0773bc20d039c5e14c0eda3cf0ca54149214d040127360efe7f2f23577185684 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | 74,052,025 | 74,052,025 |
bababa834630905c3739c7577364ed7af9ecef10 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xec1160e02d239102f65f8f9788f0d5282377ca66b5faaf15afd0faba3f9f442c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 25? | 76,368,401 | 76,368,401 |
6c45bab3c9fdc478c94453d652196b924d0f2b48 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,578,346 | 76,578,346 |
ee54de5409178d6099cac8f49aa42bcb417fc454 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x71e053ed1f6183d037ce9bf8cb09f15e3a62396d28306700e3a003009bc5ff69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-20 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on September 20? | 76,704,336 | 76,704,336 |
93383b8a895ca04e35e16e126949ee73f702b100 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x93736a9eb5314b480df87994fb6e0577bf4579b35f656f1391d34207bb86a350 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 20? | 76,704,336 | 76,704,336 |
ca9f99ad2951ab0e53a8b94bf3d4ce54649f267c | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x876322668b423b1c16b7c9af7b5d166fe40acc8157ea658387654ee35b1afc81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 21? | 76,741,517 | 76,741,517 |
ce2279f36bfc5d9ea5a7133f16fdda465d604736 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xa73cf3d8d68986320fad21780c38a3f19492550861335e35d9959842a1dd7cde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 22? | 76,793,848 | 76,793,848 |
0b8a4ed5c76f98d1985f9257de4133b645a88819 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x0963ddebc0be7359ca6848c34dde51eb9251153b01d8fa88de83822af0d5dacc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | cricket-asia-cup-winner | Will India win the 2025 Asia Cup? | 77,042,573 | 77,042,573 |
c99f0e4046aaed834f94211f90a591566e8dbd8a | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x9f7fcee63fc0bd252f1998ab6010771631eeb13596ad296edce67ae13bfa82f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October 7? | 77,417,549 | 77,417,549 |
af62025ac723c5eb7e01684ff6cf16e8974ad0e5 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xb4f580c2e5677b02fed3ddd339da579628c7aa07d779af759741d6d3f4dea179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $128,000 on October 9? | 77,481,387 | 77,481,387 |
ce4da1e6c6e288186365ebb7ee4c3b18838b3e0f | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xbe42cc2eeea8016c2675ab34586f613932809cdf08bc2d4f428fe9c29bcb57b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 9? | 77,481,387 | 77,481,387 |
c03123f3426a99aa6087500854bf1fcb94d755cd | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xe44bc64cd40805b63ea8863fd0dad6af488068c9821ce205e42f954d9f962295 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 9? | 77,481,387 | 77,481,387 |
94c12cb94f8f2b0799bf3fcf552911757d0a695c | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x1d5f519b00190facf50f69c45ff35044e36896551cefe8c37f99d465ed5cd000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 10? | 77,513,731 | 77,513,731 |
4f4b126309c9f82bc2d0e69ecac988d811697b78 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x32b74abe60e0758742b748edd4c45ff135f17c1335eff43406e9e5879baa1c50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,900 and $5,000 on October 10? | 77,513,731 | 77,513,731 |
21124773ae22c73f21a474e5c7f97c7a0d2a573b | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x7a73878f2d5a67181a8ef4205526c7b9691e126e11fef4fb1f0cd018507d50a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $130,000 and $132,000 on October 10? | 77,513,731 | 77,513,731 |
c7a08f9027814cad9ec0981da6830c85ae930e51 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xc879f1de50f17aa6cd3ce8120ef7ed9551cb551da2854cf7716b556f6e150d1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $114,000 on October 10? | 77,513,731 | 77,513,731 |
6b3c4b676840826b37e4d4722504bb61c622729b | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xd56c350c4c24945f2b63ec0da7b55cd709cca7d653a471c7bf1cc2a7bdc6f55b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $132,000 on October 10? | 77,513,731 | 77,513,731 |
8e1ff1b9a0c27b698f699c2c917b8744c064366a | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xe0691c3aef56bbb9c3c2bed5e027be860a8edb9b0f7d13c1fe1bdc991b1aaa9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October 10? | 77,522,975 | 77,522,975 |
f2e94ec445ab4e8f23f2f6366cdec6d217132e61 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x0c2bcbaf11d7e6da45f456b8ef10b1da2cb0243fb30839271f90a6823d1d4bfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of Solana be between $260 and $270 on October 11? | 77,575,138 | 77,575,138 |
a25e9a54d6620f423ffeffb6dc5b63a39c94ae76 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x40595e6d7157141eb3dc68dd0531fddbd62689f3e8f0084b7edab1514c573301 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 11? | 77,575,138 | 77,575,138 |
c18e2737f860628430e4bc5b432d9ec2079b245e | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x5a909de21577265e073eb59a8d775d42abe00cd468b02b3313ce3f07ff8ad1ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on October 11? | 77,575,138 | 77,575,138 |
8a0ab94327328dba8c722201bc9bea8711611ce9 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x701485a2963f89652e5b03d932bf025f32d9fadad250d84a3a315ae22d400c58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 68-70m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,900 on October 11? | 77,575,138 | 77,575,138 |
285d0153e4633615951d01b25a278b9d59583ecf | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xa9ac0bd2e1817a2520190561346ea977d54953f57a4748004a59d6d0ae709a0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $3.40 on October 11? | 77,575,138 | 77,575,138 |
ec3a57223c6972eb2a5242da634550d1bc8635e0 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xaf0f06a07c65e3b5c8761e0f216b0044d6c881005f77fc6a42205af6d204dee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Maine's 2nd congressional district? | Event: congressional-district-2nd-maine-presidential-electi... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of XRP be between $3.30 and $3.40 on October 11? | 77,575,138 | 77,575,138 |
42ea1df5f74f8e77dcc74723ff5f644295db4bec | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xe27e9963aef76dd9973378011417e703e4767049e58c0dfd78dfd24fbc7d4305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Maine's 2nd congressional district? | Event: congressional-district-2nd-maine-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on July 10 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-10-5pm-et | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $128,000 and $130,000 on October 11? | 77,575,138 | 77,575,138 |
99f6a3bf4732d5b930830971f1798ee3ecd96106 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xee52dd48e61066fdd374040b22a91878365a1291f6542a9901b093f9388631d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on July 10 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-10-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $112K on July 11 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-11-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $270 on October 11? | 77,575,138 | 77,575,138 |
72f964b6106362ecdbaffb9c44814234f4512755 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xfb3d6eadd912375ef74bebcc2a7cbb8556ba2aef822338ec7181c85075e91609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $112K on July 11 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-11-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-12 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 12? | 77,635,182 | 77,635,182 |
09988e0a5f195b17027826ce1e02aa024ba5dc8d | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x6514f8bce051aa9997005074d2285807fc1b1bf1e19ba9296cf673d96e7bba5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 12 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England vs. India end in a draw? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pri... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-12 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,900 and $5,000 on October 12? | 77,635,185 | 77,635,185 |
f041d6c7c91ce048941be3dba0a76c2599679a58 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0xb0e8015bd0e96a9a2988133548997ad6cda117e8eeff8b8344c87a143714466e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England vs. India end in a draw? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $126,000 and $128,000 on October 12? | 77,635,185 | 77,635,185 |
d9421565935953ae138788b9ede1eb5301568482 | 0x31a7375c626cbeeb65c3b11b1a3b26a46616df67 | 0x40d4c821426de767f70607ce1d5807e2c1e86e10ecf2cbb7b368685458e235c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122K on July 15 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 16 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 15? | 77,741,813 | 77,741,813 |
f25c11256aa9281d755b54f1b6658cf8e22d95cd | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x6b326acfd92e249ff13165fb716ce81476ebe98497283a783a73b5e426470606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01?
Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | 64,968,181 | 64,968,181 |
929fab4a14e401a1af9b196e7d3079897459f033 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xa35fcc5f0331c6b702f9c56c3122aa56e0e63b9fd116bba99ed3ced4e189a4f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01?
Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "con... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | 64,971,196 | 64,971,196 |
c53a88e1a68a1f7d761fc46c34634605e3b616ee | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xa61dcf88d83ced6761ecad0db43fbb0ba8668af3f4efb21041c7d898300beba0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
Event: e... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 65,181,592 | 65,181,592 |
a30433a17cefa0707a3b49c86544bde3e4d479ca | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xda7188bb483cfed6e8c4150b6b8ed0e764358f3b97f493decdb6109c59da04f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-05? | 65,181,592 | 65,181,592 |
85357a60b3be08067c62102a1b0b9904ae513cca | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x6c98a34f34915e73dae6e8fcbe4b0031ff667cee6926dcdbf4c475f9044dd635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-not-2024-12-07 | Will Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | 65,217,768 | 65,217,768 |
1328135188dfd25003ae36810cb37dd775b8d34a | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x50a6c8e790ca9e23aee828e45ad026be5bf81f7943a4fbaf895ba7dac247cc53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-bou-2024-12-08 | Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-08? | 65,254,095 | 65,254,095 |
02e2678f88356af349fdacbb21aaf44a58a59f11 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x6880627d60c1c1b4831ff77628892550a1cba0166c0fe1f4af32e486487d499a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08? | 65,254,095 | 65,254,095 |
d888cf30faa1ca24a06612196e62eca35baeb636 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xf35a5b84e5deaedb7957d212eb964e7a8ab856338604bfae83253b667735911c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-bou-2024-12-08 | Will Ipswich vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 65,254,095 | 65,254,095 |
5c55e7f808fc5cd3321d10297c69932bba4996b9 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xaf15399ad911612d0f03266f7c74733197ecd2e74e19432deb6e86293e1ab1e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | ucl-girona-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat Girona? | 65,334,877 | 65,334,877 |
289053b0c67cc6fc2bbf48cdc67f68fb73657f19 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x52ca7de0c6a0680bd1c941e55fcc5e92435e122c8407e56d92b743264dd270a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | ucl-arsenal-vs-monaco | Will Arsenal beat Monaco? | 65,381,712 | 65,381,712 |
bfd8e05d8887152935412e9b0ad5151a934b6e42 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xc956b10a339271f45125c65a99c6afba4ce7a9105d38006442360f69014c5e60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 66,312,993 | 66,312,993 |
882af2f1372b6bfbfee43c47616cc56f254d314c | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xf9f15b727387041bd42e1faf32413fd98fbfa9280a646bc5380161d178b19c50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-ips-2024-12-14 | Will Wolves win on 2024-12-14? | 66,312,993 | 66,312,993 |
9e11fcbbeee1ff446622e80b76b1c6b15fbfb331 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xc0122a4c969b1644f684d938977eeb29f4afdec91b3edff934a068f2382c0858 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? | 66,312,994 | 66,312,994 |
21072fce6efcaaec69aa134e395fbd765286b2ce | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xd3b5e480ff00889945ceae1c891d6eee68c3880d66290c142f256a55cc0d94fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 66,346,876 | 66,346,876 |
3011270cf95f4b93875c6a78e687484ec4603aae | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x52fcf6a6eacd203d4f30049614273a57fb8a0b5f2f4ef73e646e3085a1835fba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mun-2025-01-05 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? | 66,351,254 | 66,351,254 |
36ba7815c01489d1d5d1d4c497fb3a4794e6872c | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x091c9ba6be983927ca49945c8c56b4b11f58eef7608a36e883d540787f2faee9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-02-23 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-23? | 68,697,683 | 68,697,683 |
fa60875c3dec28ab5696f9bcb9d5944a6933bdc9 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0xd3128bce2cfd79336e681810618a1d14e94d336e6917413e17b3ff3e75b61faa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-not-ars-2025-02-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26? | 68,697,683 | 68,697,683 |
3cd6f67dfb913bae1b3104c5e97ad3468c84c30b | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x0081ede51786d9369fb1a8a2c6dde9a07ecc8581be42472868c49d6d4b3a6ae8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | uel-ajx-fra-2025-03-06 | Will Ajax vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? | 68,767,176 | 68,767,176 |
84d9ef083887765b51a17c6e6e6f8f6cff055e13 | 0x31b7c9df8d5251bee0d20b27c50e5976eefebde1 | 0x49e6c761831498dc6ab6fe16b7a1a9df9946a6c60175d93d821941e72431c621 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-tot-ful-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-ful-2025-03-08 | Will Brighton win on 2025-03-08? | 68,810,419 | 68,810,419 |
63c0f77434ef9c07632837ce9ef3e3e613508706 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x07843c80d53c08855c12ce0f9c46851d39202eb1fad5796ee958647d068d2e25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5?
Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
b59de067d2cc8fa4d38cfacce7671506e9e9d139 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x0c0cdc2c18d89382fd3c3d50066c685d8379f0e0163ef65e305a15ac9510790e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26
Predict ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
afb6bdeb8a254d2486b088e789a1e70a144df309 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x40653d05c299d1f9c8e0491834f08882548acd2edf14f76cc519b66b81de0471 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or higher on September 2? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
9984ce39869d4aef6eeb366d0a7fc0461862261f | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x4ed8bbbef654bae8767f33a6d437555a5eacca8b6439403843cfb6174c95e10e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 630 and 659 times August 29–September 5? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
a12586db49ea0831b69fad3a154627bf12f39efc | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x4efbd20fe4c797ce3abfc78bcbf7a8faf9775b29e2de408632268607a081753e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | epl-which-manager-gets-sacked-first | Will Nuno Santo be the first EPL manager fired? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
c70be656c14443e07bf6d771c0041b8c7837a827 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x71ae0c796ec362ff2afc6576c388081fb4edff889d9521d82a96bf83bdf2f3e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 26? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
839085e69f38adc9625bed33191c3809c81c3268 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xa658c0fbcebd33b3cde89bef79e7bb01fa8536deb5eb2772b6dc53cd65c3e35a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on September 1? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
86b78763b3d4453993efcf55a2b900fa80c37695 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xb262c47f8f66bf24e11614cfd8f2d4fa94fd25000a60f27fd0132d3180abdd01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 28? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
0fd57f433fdd0745b44ac744784f071511db5713 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xbe66509097a1c93489d555da67e8ddbcbb4ef1dcdbdd50cac8d1885db8e8e66b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
74e8dbe6e743955322b862f2dce11ac1851a4f23 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xbe7cd9fabb7a8248a5077aa02629454846f4faa09172c8d718670e74a0887ce7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 8? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
e2f3de99b766f0318eb9ef4ec112e641c86ffedb | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xc4b65c34a63ee6d3765a3cfee9d8d8293ca3624e0f7c0543ce0547c181fb80a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on September 6? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
4b989e4fe20b46e6a7cd5a5a774dff299dbb24d9 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xdc3168dda39671a36c46b1ff8647941dde8bd7fe4b95af56bb790d2e74bd20e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on September 1? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
f6784ea3bc8899663ab76d3681de0fdf39009f70 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xe803479873077dc26a42bcb2ee3f146c6e4a2846861ce66bfa40a080b8ea1adf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 11 ET? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
c13e8642f8b45dc91e3845ce5c90e33e5790da2f | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xe8b2c9fab0b2aed95d6549f1d573cb80506920f18edda70bfbee34a0b0cac198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Will MrBeast raise 40m on Saturday August 30? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
0812febb362880bc38080eec00e6eebeccc81be7 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xf0eff6dbe61204e50353fd68bd0411011ba4975df3f6a059fa6ebec2c0b5a6d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET? | 76,354,419 | 76,354,419 |
426e6975b372453c7fa4fb320ac99026154e2478 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x6270721f71b002e0d53f1e0ca50922581ef5fc58370b839059ebab628423dd87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on August 26? | 76,354,420 | 76,354,420 |
202acb7d59491907210002a947f6241add28448c | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x89b218915235bb9c1af5769441842ad571786b419beacf2e5c2b105315247fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 5? | 76,354,420 | 76,354,420 |
b1457dc9d9fdca89a3834c80c699d9918c4c1632 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xa58ac73fa3b53edef94ece2c8fc42c2fbc51f0a4764cf1168c2b0475822b6cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Will FaZe win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | 76,354,420 | 76,354,420 |
9f4545a8affe76a54c4c5c748def511d578d53b6 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xa5f87b43d89d143b88d64fe784b09121b50322915dcedc0aebeeaedb99ed9f6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on September 6? | 76,354,420 | 76,354,420 |
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