sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
f255923c642b4d619486d8e0a771f23a9a6c5906 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xbb1bbfd6716e9d6f8413be2f065de94509ce2112193cb8dffd4f2c0c07526c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | guyana-presidential-election | Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | 76,354,420 | 76,354,420 |
cd76929a1a7368455720a59f02036506fce11fd8 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xe2ad53ad147aa53fbeffc3462117436e6b65858008b07f33574adbdb460c6bfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-september-2025 | Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? | 76,354,420 | 76,354,420 |
6d69304cb2eb838f3616269148a425f9cbccfae5 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x6548e105028c00919339402dbd6a241d598f483b544b13d4dd8e9b71fd212fc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on September 2? | 76,354,421 | 76,354,421 |
76c94a66adeeaaa684e355623402b5a978506d8d | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x6600d3be705f4db2e165496e75623cf83b5f8c3937e84f316adfa6c3d5b81786 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-394 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025? | 76,354,421 | 76,354,421 |
36ae3940b18b34612531d10b799d49875603896b | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x725c10fca91aaee3b81e298d2d4e5fe7198e89fd5b41bec1318d4aed5608fe0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | browns-week-1-starting-qb | Will Joe Flacco start Week 1 for the Browns? | 76,354,421 | 76,354,421 |
9c793355e1a5b13ef1cc7a3dbd12090290ca4ca8 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x8cfc2e4cb9b1a85c2b97b41e98456d160c216105c4849ae1b82ed96bc0c7a1a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,354,421 | 76,354,421 |
920e1ef875855f3a9a07dc21560b0074068c8075 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xa47d5522a14e98422b06053bc153cbb731321e286c12a5a8f75036f6c302e167 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | 76,354,421 | 76,354,421 |
df7e9e08382e60e8748a5dc4270dad05b2c6fd89 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xcd14b4abfd5b9ebbc0a613904746d53bfa9f88592377c501fb6b07525a1d2239 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 13 ET? | 76,354,421 | 76,354,421 |
880957a0f44b29fdeab59af327cd2426a25c5d64 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xed39d4222c5ac6494a6167973a2538073ae0d72a57ec2649a3d2ac8866f28deb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-6 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on September 6? | 76,354,422 | 76,354,422 |
56c7700b9a5b78f34e57274a65d18c32aa65e397 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x0cb9667c48f0e7c21fe346a57fc8355c32d4eb2317d1341bc41918622b437d98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 0.819461 | who-will-be-the-first-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet | Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? | 76,354,425 | 76,354,425 |
b36707351047969fce79ba6115b051b3bd6a13ca | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x887c260deafc9128f83b7f5f776440c06f0e62722b6e64bd0fcf69186a50b38e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 0.111111 | what-positions-will-travis-hunter-play | Will Travis hunter only play offense? | 76,354,425 | 76,354,425 |
95af33414d152c627940a395ae9584d8b30a29bd | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xa3fbfb68225253aaeb1d12e8ba722b4bab1ecf67306696dd1324b4b3ff64f927 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 0.000315 | which-artists-will-release-new-albums-in-2025 | Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2025? | 76,354,425 | 76,354,425 |
68cfe50ef9052f0d280e2b406cf3566fb77b8139 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or higher on September 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-... | no | 0.000201 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 76,354,425 | 76,354,425 |
24bc0ce7382f19b362963160a6bfec9c533cb0bb | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xe9073e63743019c3a69222899f66406bfa1a8aec6d00a9b5063e42cf926c1158 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or higher on September 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 630 and 659 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | ... | no | 0 | kpop-demon-hunters-views-count-on-september-23 | Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 310-330m views on September 23? | 76,354,425 | 76,354,425 |
91d8aa2b605a4da0f7952f53fdca0986e5e2bc46 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x7244ab19360cdfa4030de75e3f71cabee0919df805c54ad7d705b7435914d740 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 630 and 659 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nuno Santo be the first EPL manager fired? | Event: epl-which-manager-gets-sacked-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0.25 | how-many-seats-will-the-progress-party-frp-win-in-norwegian-election | Will the Progress Party (FrP) win more than 46 seats in the Norwegian election? | 76,354,425 | 76,525,441 |
49eeca5b66fd45b35a78d99fe6296db4391008b6 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x35d6cdbd289215d1282caf1481032969d080afb42334ca0735aa6c42571554a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nuno Santo be the first EPL manager fired? | Event: epl-which-manager-gets-sacked-first | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 0.329612 | first-leader-out-of-power-in-2025 | Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? | 76,354,425 | 78,029,908 |
777db4577d0c0b29d9944751c9a1a5cb46981322 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xa5c145324688b080f582c6175c3a5281bf0550fdf339dde9c74c733b575caf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on September 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september... | no | 0.999531 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-394 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025? | 76,354,766 | 76,354,766 |
ec6297d2a799231f58ac083f7414fe32fe2d7eaa | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x2a1ec00cfbd5c5ac01ffde245200d9b8712ff857cce6f86a7bb70140eb0d5420 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on September 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on September 5? | 76,354,774 | 76,354,774 |
1c158aefd0ed57f244d6dcebe87cbd4cdb75fc57 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xada21ffcdd2bf3c34170225af8394894794b2dcea57906a0ddab8749592248fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | Event: f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | major-league-pickleball-winner | Will New Jersey 5s win the 2025 Major League Pickleball Finals? | 76,354,776 | 76,354,776 |
983dd4735e6666e30fdc386567365be0e0c8933a | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x040e39c748c9670086010468156ee6f981e88961bcfb9be5a0f62218be89500f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? | Event: f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | samoa-legislative-assembly-election-winner | Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election? | 76,354,781 | 76,354,781 |
199b0fcfd64795c985e42ee3ffe78554ce1167f5 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x61dc39b21f5880f6f43210a46fa358a78b922b907725724e9b313fc4bd899a17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on September 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-s... | no | 1 | cleveland-browns-qb2-for-week-1 | Will Dillon Gabriel be the Browns QB2 for Week 1? | 76,354,785 | 76,354,785 |
21ad2eb96ab0471edb880db6daa6296675254cf2 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xb0d5bdf2b60c57efcc1c3e9d62dc672aa09b76a595356fbd927cbc0b244237dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on September 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on September 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-septe... | no | 0.998614 | samoa-legislative-assembly-election-winner | Will FAST win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election? | 76,354,787 | 76,354,787 |
49e5d1e32dbc94217319c8431b285ec05f18535e | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xd952918433a61988e7d8b18fa5b13ba2296ceedf6b198d0c046d97972b30c809 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on September 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 11 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | major-league-pickleball-winner | Will Columbus Sliders win the 2025 Major League Pickleball Finals? | 76,354,789 | 76,354,789 |
d2875a9bbf0440275108ed0c92045644df623ef7 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xd7f646862ec167e8025fb89e81909d49f6e0a1084348eddfbd03b4fb6863d1f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 11 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast raise 40m on Saturday August 30? | Event: mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET? | E... | no | 1 | chess-sinquefield-cup-winner | Will Wesley So win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament? | 76,354,791 | 76,354,791 |
1fe0e75559551489a9b770c9dd1e8d38c681cee9 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xcb8cc0c61a648c7ab16284f9e2e0d378aca1ac87ede62278826638e4cda308ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast raise 40m on Saturday August 30? | Event: mrbeast-raises-40m-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be... | yes | 0.998013 | how-much-money-will-mrbeast-raise-by-midnight | Will MrBeast raise between $40m and $41m by midnight? | 76,354,794 | 76,354,794 |
43076415a9535d3cee6103f74e71dd9ae1cbca0d | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x00f1d6d44837f6b7b6dbc84eb98e427f14bc5a1b8ccd523f239124544023ac5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | swag-ii-first-week-album-sales | Will Swag II first-week album sales be 175000 or more? | 76,381,681 | 76,381,681 |
e0f0808f0af0e9b53a0afb06c1732ac2619b0a32 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x43ad3adcdc9583f28e586386ee053198ea842ddbd112f1ad04760991defd7ac2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on August 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-se... | no | 1 | 2025-eurobasket-mvp | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP? | 76,525,443 | 76,525,443 |
8988e7f6596737c70de539584b9494ef06598e38 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x8a5c1b982175c1782425056b88954174cb66a3ea5c96efadcdbd587d299a6d78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FaZe win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | 2025-premier-lacrosse-league-winner | Will New York Atlas win the 2025 PLL Championship? | 76,525,445 | 76,525,445 |
ffeadaed07efd97428c8a025667382e39a56f7b1 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0xef7642baddf14c139024aeae22b620ca3680500f7ca8c35a434e4f23090f06d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FaZe win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | Event: cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on September 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | emmys-lead-actress-in-a-comedy | Will Uzo Aduba win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series? | 76,525,447 | 76,525,447 |
b6850d5ec166bbc38a45bca553c2215e262142d1 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x30a12edb27bdda550e43ccfd9eb4f53e29a24628dfb015ca2d9d04bebba4070f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on September 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | emmys-lead-actor-in-a-comedy | Will Jeremy Allen White win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series? | 76,525,449 | 76,525,449 |
a1d1b2fd9eca01c011450d09abccaabf73f7964a | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x162e9528a9a5f53741caf631b52a9ebeba3bc5324cac2f2881abafd82d110c42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-september-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | al-west-division-winner | Will the Los Angeles Angels win the AL West Division? | 76,525,451 | 76,525,451 |
47534d52e57795a2d8f09f42c5e490dae5563566 | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x6f43e9c1e344ebc8481a0e41977da78192c8bd03d52a505a78a21871022ce032 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-september-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on September 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-2 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | emmys-lead-actor-in-a-drama | Will Pedro Pascal win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series? | 76,525,453 | 76,525,453 |
3d9f3004318e5563b440567e6ede416d534961aa | 0x31e52c8c9dd504765dce979fee25fa76f3970b07 | 0x38c574667c2dfe83f8050882cf1d439fe02420bce863a57629416eee4533ce41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on September 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025? | Event: july-2025-temperature-increase-c-3... | no | 1 | bank-of-england-decision-in-september | Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,680,750 | 76,680,750 |
578cb0d9f3a4aa002eaead148e0d607da243fa18 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x291b3891c7b34f8d7972919a939ae8f0fe0cbf6f58a22855cfe1f6ca4c7fd6bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will PSG win 4-1?
Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Will PSG win 4-1? | 73,931,713 | 73,931,713 |
ac2be199a0885ff013628b6370d1ce937bb5ccbc | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xf2e9b872b03b874d85bc9f730a723257d4a69a8b44bd9391277e79f297aeaa6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming
Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ma... | bilibili | 0 | league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | 74,868,126 | 74,873,128 |
811497a0d65ec4fba7257bebca7f7710649c8974 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x80cb7a454d1e9280eb7d263a63d77356c4ffb0b0ce59af6db82eaeccefe92026 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Ri... | no | 0 | colts-week-1-starting-qb | Will Riley Leonard start Week 1 for the Colts? | 74,920,052 | 74,920,290 |
26b401f5630a255d27ffedac20e1b7cc12852d1c | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x93f3f07837b7d0aac9bda9bc28876cea265417cfdb3796b46869e42d5fa58a09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | liga mx | 0 | leagues-cup-winner-mls-or-liga-mx | Leagues Cup Winner – MLS or Liga MX? | 74,920,460 | 74,920,469 |
d205740dc2dc12e96b8e3dd25f24ac2f3b04d945 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xc2a42aea477b136e79bb2fc1ac919c40794d0c821a538c3865a51cae764f7770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | jd gaming | 0.132576 | league-of-legends-invictus-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. JD Gaming | 74,991,528 | 74,993,342 |
97a6d194123a280591a2ba4adedaba0a6a57840d | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x77778f264f483720102e2f38b58caede4d60a89d894279be07a199ab0bad73ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | raptors | 0.000021 | nba-tor-sac-2025-10-08 | Raptors vs. Kings | 77,402,377 | 77,402,377 |
3bbf194f400c704a4fabc3b9fc6695e20515445d | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xa737aadf8ee902b0b51b46c823fab415ebbeb42900a2f4c4d20f0d66fe937cff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | mariners | 0.000004 | mlb-sea-det-2025-10-08 | Mariners vs. Tigers | 77,402,377 | 77,402,377 |
fcc75cb658d327f26cea4eea3a656fd8c98f0ffb | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xf2892ddda9b74699fb1bcf0bb5a5f80d0f2494efd85b6cfb34f4e867a5b57cc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | grizzlies | 0.875432 | nba-bos-mem-2025-10-08 | Celtics vs. Grizzlies | 77,402,377 | 77,402,377 |
45c2c07b408bc0a1dde3463356a1cb7304cc08f4 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xa7aeaaae036e316c1e7e0542fa31595117dee8735ef88b3d9ceda85b1b3d1534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | lions | 0.2364 | nfl-det-kc-2025-10-12 | Lions vs. Chiefs | 77,606,367 | 77,606,404 |
ccbc8e35360f88152e3c8920e697d7c0b817582c | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x626a49d9b82acaa9e86760c0cddad6a71aceefbef72f4f1c154ff8e358ae88c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | bills | 0.000019 | nfl-buf-atl-2025-10-13 | Bills vs. Falcons | 77,646,685 | 77,646,685 |
3db1d356ddc7b31d20badc253e8387543224438b | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xb4bba8acb4a85c9f4ccd0eec6393e746c0176d271c2d0e52792968a05dd64b0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | bears | 0 | nfl-chi-was-2025-10-13 | Bears vs. Commanders | 77,652,258 | 77,653,353 |
a003b7ed126ff4a80319f826f2b427f5a23f0704 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x9ef61619539dabd101bb253bf50d088e50d64fe4268243823e8015d13dd08b45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | yes | 1 | caf-nga-ben-2025-10-14 | Will Nigeria win on 2025-10-14? | 77,694,504 | 77,694,504 |
8b4440986cc0149ceb68fab2e9f6be3633fa597d | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xbbf187ff7553075bf3ee06c06546b8c140ddbc10b1c728e6c6715273a8be1686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | no | 1 | fif-arg-pur-2025-10-14 | Will Puerto Rico win on 2025-10-14? | 77,707,503 | 77,707,503 |
7ef905012a0a7630fa28887f9d3000e5bf06189c | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x8e52c6cdccdb66ece7062dbecb65f1ef404a28c0021b23997f42a0a072a6d92d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | movistar koi | 0.33345 | lol-mkoi-g2-2025-10-16 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1) | 77,742,260 | 77,742,260 |
2be62fab48ab6edaa8c292bb5dd67b2870bd5d35 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x1b0179fd8e9ccdb5c2ace95000e7ab0a60208e4e1b40556d4f3d136c955f5a16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | anyone's legend | 0.000001 | lol-al-gen-2025-10-16 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) | 77,753,167 | 77,753,167 |
891f50c503219b241df2e802da5228c4c01f3341 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x770516bfd1c950a385817d7d92e10aebff454d00f2d8f91ef0c5ccf156c882d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | ctbc flying oyster | 1 | lol-t1-cfo-2025-10-16 | LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) | 77,763,212 | 77,763,212 |
46073c9f8c5429b8002eed4335b0f56bff386013 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x36d93c8aab9a3b79c6f5f089e7598ac402bb9cd7083fba875c7d34348edf5115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | gen.g | 0 | lol-gen-t1-2025-10-18 | LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) | 77,765,152 | 77,842,163 |
250cf537712d8e0529843bddd7a84b9869d68a1c | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x29e191911cf65a30375c1d28e2bd9abcb6cdbbf6a95e1465ded598c0ed5a9359 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | anyone's legend | 0 | lol-cfo-al-2025-10-17 | LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) | 77,794,104 | 77,812,983 |
9657623b68e8a354ae5566567e23c14cc3a81c2c | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xca56212c81dd57745642ab3ccd8a4b4daa1c389526dedb8d3050831266036546 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | unicorns of love sexy edition | 0.169152 | lol-use1-hrts-2025-10-21 | LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Los Heretics (BO5) | 77,827,311 | 77,827,311 |
5b388e49ea7d8f6b55f78f92cf8742485641802a | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x9f4cb89f8da190d6c6f214501c33cf2d06c55941e1b6cd27ed2ed45f5421dc04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | no | 1 | lal-sev-mal-2025-10-18 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-18? | 77,860,449 | 77,860,449 |
623002b654d38a07cc788a440d57533593a8f27a | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x9c7ed54c877a58a3f738147bc8735a61091ae5f1f61440d3eea62afff36c0990 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | movistar koi | 0.11769 | lol-mkoi-tsw-2025-10-23 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) | 77,906,277 | 77,907,811 |
f9b2dd0a709c4345ab6e0d2df9351e31d3fe8f03 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xadccb9668678f7dd277efa2066321ff3fba60d8cd7568f059075380803a28d03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | no | 1 | sea-par-com-2025-10-25 | Will Como win on 2025-10-25? | 78,156,501 | 78,156,501 |
fdf3629000e720b579a53ff2426d8e347eb348ec | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x73330cf905c4bf224e09f9f38cfcf642a74601885b5e1e303a52f8ee02e8f3ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | yes | 1 | lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | 78,180,239 | 78,180,239 |
9f283a36c5115f00c744bd22c39ecc9c30e2de1a | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xc034ac69f99d3754a416f23f6a771693bfc6eaf4417c9a4309c8f51813965a37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | 78,180,239 | 78,180,239 |
2a768366a6dbc1976ccd73add9d1cece701daddf | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x21bed20d85e87128ba93e619002026a101b8d2625df86b00cf48c549fe8e828c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | yes | 1 | aus-per-vic-2025-10-31 | Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,411,675 | 78,411,675 |
87379dc601fa6e11a42fee5311cfcbc4dffd3584 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x23fc10c32677daf5a2ff3bf0c21aada482b180df7ca1afd66525665c95129aff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | 76ers | 0 | nba-bos-phi-2025-11-11 | Celtics vs. 76ers | 78,894,544 | 78,894,544 |
5e1d3ecf272e1e454e74cee5c20c071d7de3387e | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x2700c8cc1b14280f4144a511f8bae2b1482fbe2742304a9dea7b079d0c38546b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | bulls | 0.000003 | nba-chi-det-2025-11-12 | Bulls vs. Pistons | 78,911,491 | 78,911,491 |
23114eeb0b21f0ce8f1534cefe067dfffa718824 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0x1f06235738be91c66e96106bad0009e4d8ffb7d1e499fdab361a89ea77205344 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | hornets | 0.011791 | nba-okc-cha-2025-11-15 | Thunder vs. Hornets | 79,068,281 | 79,068,281 |
e70a136004d0c056407dd1651f5bf91102f4c3d3 | 0x3212a515f3a02546830a6fb41f01470ccfff634e | 0xa194254c06c8ec897cf03f61a049895be08ae56973b0886fb118f2baedb90c4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-1? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming | Event: league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-jd-gaming | Choice: bilibili | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Riley Leonard s... | timberwolves | 0 | nba-was-min-2025-11-19 | Wizards vs. Timberwolves | 79,228,205 | 79,228,205 |
c22ec08318167de9d12b02119a8319ff15efa3fc | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0xe6137f8637c8a9595dfec6e1f0133d3ab941846d7e80d3d33e5387f57bb5a37c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary?
Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | 53,934,432 | 53,934,432 |
6cd9cf003791a07e3354d989f6f1e9564976d884 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x25ee65945ec1880c6c62eea7bcd33512d6de23f05ec9a555db332a931a74d22d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote?
Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-pri... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | 53,940,897 | 53,940,897 |
a3a692df36906676b6beca910b3d7ec1fd519ee2 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x265bbb33ba7170621c87c7d53879250756ad9e44e9a486261e45b6e291547d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 20-30% of the vote? | 54,060,148 | 54,060,148 |
b459bb715e8d0a55c5cafc52009581fda2c3d1be | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x6a0bf25cacee15e507476f9bd79acd63a149a5553bd2acbd82972d30ef435366 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 10-20% of the vote? | 54,131,808 | 54,131,808 |
0485a88ee7bf9fba4b21a785b19fc6ed9fe61a32 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x7c653b281e42ce57c9bd4a17d994149817c46e3e77b78957d7001d9ec9b9a6c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-idaho-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Idaho Caucus 40-50% | 54,212,759 | 54,212,759 |
291963cf03271e016d6839e7d2a90a655650a6ab | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0xe1025d19c07331e80f3416f812642677fb57fa393b5865f17b9082024ce3d7bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | yes | 1 | when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out | Will Nikki Haley drop out in March? | 54,345,690 | 54,345,690 |
97ce9b0651620276a36f8940fa3c4fd1012dc555 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x2ed994d2b8196386508261d8a1ae668e5bf464c6ddfc3b957803304b484e30ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | california-senate-primary-margin-of-victory | Will Garvey win the California Senate Primary by between 2-4% of the vote? | 54,947,885 | 54,947,885 |
7da8cc08736363fa4fb159a9add825a0e13b08e7 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x1b06ff5e33df3007fb5918ba2500611e737b4281a4b8ca800567bb2ef06d31f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | trump-vs-biden-rcp-polling-margin | RCP: Trump by +2.0-2.2 on April 5? | 55,484,657 | 55,484,657 |
4b5cd6e6e07ecc1134408e4c5f9107a8865f1740 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x1b9db89faf09ecab67f5f66461ec08a27b7b8c3ee9001d9ca1ebf8b1f0512c80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | trump-vs-biden-rcp-polling-margin | RCP: Trump by +2.3-2.5 on April 5? | 55,484,657 | 55,484,657 |
20ee5833ad20a801cef75a950075f9ded67004c5 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x9bcb53692dab73c6d68a98843e69a54ba7c38ef2c811d7078425b4b599dd60df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-biden-rcp-polling-margin | RCP polling: Trump by less than 1.4 on April 5? | 55,484,657 | 55,484,657 |
287001cb31bab606afd8ccbe5afe594a3a31f4db | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x5769fa4d488376c93659ba5e4edcc6c1631f93180e056b333e0f31bde03c0591 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | trumps-worst-state-on-march-19 | Will Kansas be Trump's worst state on March 19? | 55,740,630 | 55,740,630 |
d8a33158029afacb1b17223c1f76ea03a9cda116 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0xd35c80d2f97f129c9297139425e0e19fc8ce596af45a68cb5fde2ec9309d5392 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 0.001996 | republican-nominee-2024 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | 55,742,887 | 55,742,887 |
5b19589954ef3cf2e7f035d14cea75871124aee6 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x2a73336e8c3ef5370ec96357f575fdbf5e2a457f012a04cad85da6ab07b2f8dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 0.004633 | republican-nominee-2024 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? | 55,868,074 | 55,868,074 |
42ae3eb0de47715029fe65f4b219dcd98af109a8 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x7f782232f39cbd1b12fb3cc92be4ba840845ff298734390ddbf27eb44bfc5a64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 55,910,478 | 55,910,478 |
43736bc429f94c3604937491aaed8c690c2fb4f2 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0xa783e191443f72327131c5188240e6d7640b3fe8b654cebc9a9ccb56a83e77e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Barcelona win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 55,910,478 | 55,910,478 |
e65b76018687d592f8a724946680dbf0f86695e6 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x08aa2a321938ab99bb9ffc7dbafbbe512fff9d5eece4c5cc87fa6e51b0b4632c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | yes | 1 | trumps-best-state-on-march-19 | Will Florida be Trump's best state on March 19? | 56,032,750 | 56,032,750 |
cf4062523b9f75dd3d98b70bb0ed3bfc19a41373 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0x80e14125844dcb3dd3885290bc0a03626223a92b3a704ba10363d250e8640b86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | yes | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win? | 58,045,960 | 58,045,960 |
8011bfaf5a846c34d20f76a2033814fed2004a74 | 0x32211535e396b162719f565f19545ff3a22f0f7e | 0xa76f015fe2523b6bd4656282f854804f8965cf68f70cac3461ad5873835e4430 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choi... | no | 1 | russell-wilson-next-team | Will Russell Wilson remain on the Broncos? | 58,045,960 | 58,045,960 |
1bcc4cfe931b521030e873d8c6d7692e8958c3e4 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0xc94e1ba0f22578e7c54a85f2c5884d23b2bed990af5cc4243aad27e0ff5f3676 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4?
Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.023007 | ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | 74,916,954 | 74,916,954 |
04e85739d451728aef7b2832d68ad0a6592ba696 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x0cc092e50890eb9d56dd16aafea69acf7910b68a8917f6e34a5366e3ce030b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6?
Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6
Predict the user's choice a... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | 74,930,109 | 74,930,109 |
a5cdc8c955233a63537979dca2a766b3913d6186 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0xcac8df60d563ca244ca8a6faebeec5005f197cfb94f89ae037c4276f73475a2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target ... | yes | 0.641074 | ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 6? | 74,930,123 | 74,930,123 |
d34675fc14f679c35a147d17a9f94424f36aed74 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x2ab5ea776cd03acba72314f72261d35d9a952d8269d0c3a23fc852a266bfa328 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 0.530228 | ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 4? | 74,930,145 | 74,930,145 |
a5ae69d5b87ff2f6dbd65d5320e33953f9924668 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0xbe8dfcf1a62a4d8cb30df0ff72fb1d58a0ded418c20cd7f1218f3db4b5c8a3c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3800 and $3900 on August 6? | 74,930,241 | 74,930,241 |
9a75b31fa7a721f3ad2ad3518b93bd060688e8af | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0xe28c57ff05b2026aed199bb70b6704bcdd8f4c744e94a8a68f454d4902290e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.681898 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 8? | 74,970,521 | 74,970,521 |
dc95573d31dbdb43b2c92f5e5f6bfd02f2306e22 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0xffbe54b928afdb9deb9175a0821b3bb6671310ab1251db55ef3689d519192065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.246771 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 8? | 74,970,533 | 74,970,533 |
50cea7f755748f619123f182d196139d4659b5dd | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0xec800c832bcd12abfae95bcf68d67ad1d693b0a846061d0362a74710fb5bdfd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.866387 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 8? | 74,970,538 | 74,970,538 |
7030605fb84531bf2048229cfe903cdf1fde87ce | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x4c235a6f52d3b81535b48d3e4a5d8e69fc4a450c44a698c7478857107ec479d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 0.086449 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3400 and $3500 on August 8? | 74,970,542 | 74,970,542 |
2d7dc03e9c5f877d30ea0cf500d025620fd2a0f8 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x84c3a2d8c4e22c369203f7ad7df5901b91fa9c2cf6f3e0c2fb230874287134dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 8? | 74,970,551 | 74,970,551 |
e59d262dd7e930eb0a5c426ef9efbd4342b873cf | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x4acfb9cc0387b26853edfad34e760c1250b3fe76b18925d7143821bbfbf0f166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.99997 | ethereum-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 11? | 75,092,534 | 75,092,534 |
c52d24cc37ac5acb2a77d04868b2bcc27b588f48 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0xf5b3b2604b8438eee9a5ec92f19398207e6deced89519f2f8e130d014c6cc814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3800 on August 15? | 75,254,638 | 75,254,638 |
bba83ec17c29ad52ee73ae18fbec8a98d432c3a7 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x333993b13219beee944cf40c7c9f61d59211e320fba66ddce482ae16b899c5d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4200 on August 15? | 75,254,641 | 75,254,641 |
b334e0193bc4bca5ead768085fb79c1edddd8b47 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0xe1baa5caa75fe1bea6afbcb45aee03547be795b9db59ed93f1dd6db7700e99f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 13? | 75,254,653 | 75,254,653 |
836f2a6c62432a3539c436151f6e24c0b6ad81ed | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x69c51f3fe42ea891b9903c914f6a71032aff6d1d74d3524b2058344a5a5b78d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4100 and $4200 on August 15? | 75,254,666 | 75,254,666 |
b17a761939e21622c23fc38656d9cd7522e86832 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x187821ee7510047e274f623ed5663c43e1919cd35549fc16a1cd96a8ae7d162d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4000 and $4100 on August 15? | 75,254,669 | 75,254,669 |
b3c3b895184af5e503122ff55551aa81a4ea64ed | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x59bb9cc810dc8f25dd5319c78b0eabad6a7688bfe1d332e84391f9bc66115e59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3800 and $3900 on August 15? | 75,254,672 | 75,254,672 |
424a1cfe4c22978bc54a78545e3677f869a8ff73 | 0x3233b337e1169e52403cc445e5aa35dffcec2adc | 0x6b37fda23293357d9faefdc2b7f04a8d1dcca04305063169ff76400d9e0aa38c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.023006609530120726
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3900 and $4000 on August 15? | 75,274,857 | 75,274,857 |
4765a40b9e2f06eefe90fdb89240f0ead082de70 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3f7d25f7786926ed42438002dc117203068aa062b2a7b46a5e8a38a2944a6145 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30?
Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.480254 | ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | 72,131,832 | 72,164,592 |
4b0c4cbcfde4e6eef32d213e9303f17937f9bba3 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x847a09263f0a27bac8243870d8d4ad1ffe51438c5e2b669195a3141ec383048b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30?
Event: solana-price-on-may-30
Predict the user's choice and confide... | yes | 0.137493 | solana-price-on-may-30 | Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | 72,131,832 | 72,166,167 |
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