sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
136206a5fb8ad3b43a93f04797be99f2a67d7ce2 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3f15198c2ed63acb34b590b2802ba24a92f97996051373def05e1f24d138261b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? | 72,132,636 | 72,157,336 |
2873254ecd6ef70881a1e120e20cfb92794eaef6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x7e042a9aa031ef55ce617191ea4076ce1ce79757b2a6946ac7a9249b47ba4e71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-may | Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? | 72,132,636 | 72,175,304 |
f7515158994ee2b001edde6a17ba566cd4024cb0 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xea64d6bc4566943d354989554cfe57e1fb8f802d636c580c9b8bf46e0acb6022 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-2700-on-june-3 | Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? | 72,132,636 | 72,338,450 |
ff4a97306071ea4c2619b0c08134426ac6635a69 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x8d09e43da69e8f6edae9928459ea9ff6e280dc541081488d25276fd9613b9e84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.360801 | ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? | 72,137,492 | 72,326,628 |
05ec07a47c24b9c13573391f327047efa4da4a88 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xbd28739c4a2a175056720ca23cb12c67b2eefb4e086c22aceadfa34729219344 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.076077 | bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on May 30? | 72,149,321 | 72,164,592 |
68c0589ba4c3229f9fcabddd75625bed8775a783 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xd2a2e9848746343dfd155790befa2e1a1f1d7e484482bb84ff95e59c981a144b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-on-may-30 | XRP Up or Down on May 30? | 72,149,322 | 72,150,972 |
22bffc6ebc9ddf64112a0abc8ad065f4f3c3ef60 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x59a6f515a3b449f34ed2eb4cc4e672abb96af52dd65176cf15a852181f55c51d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Solana Up or Down on May 30? | 72,149,322 | 72,161,307 |
a1d2abc76c3d4fbc7c5fd0cecefa01f65a51d5ed | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x80c53e69cd9555dc6b72f394025d99e397da290961a5b0ac8afd5fa5bfb8d412 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.342404 | bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,149,322 | 72,171,368 |
52d7002af5f88e732b70c9ca24f3e91da2aa57cd | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xc11c84dbe1519a4165201cb2f7dd90274a5c3208f2d60c2379691e81fefc456f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | yes | 0.063312 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 3? | 72,149,322 | 72,326,628 |
aea1803a53f68d19f00fdf26dd79828e436de951 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3f5394b47db6860cef14fc2c6e688dc20144d4eec2dc0079de0d0b7cf3871be2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.000729 | ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3? | 72,149,323 | 72,326,628 |
e47a8604259b0724315ef898bb12dced84e4dd16 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x131ade6a283c6944fe251f5450e3350ec29bde21fdfa5d84898cc63f75c4ef1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.285997 | ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,150,972 | 72,171,368 |
0ce530291d7f6f482510522c8379360156e4d9b3 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x97239b946db6cda57fb605d9dacead47f048f0ac01717eed82a73e14c77d4792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | yes | 0.218129 | ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,150,973 | 72,171,368 |
90adc8d69632a459e5263f8b9df859c5f16b322c | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x944c7815453212389efdb9226a0ec5f1d91728ff4c9ea4debd2666e6aeeded01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may | Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? | 72,158,297 | 72,190,786 |
1c34a90d21e4ad014e1a32fae52628154826ae94 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xdd8a254e8ae31708c01902cec7063d15b4c1a9dc542a3bf154c4587b1092c50d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 31? | 72,158,297 | 72,202,000 |
b864ed18c798cc0e21eb5ac4bd9d2972590fbd25 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x96f998aa7e3d4291cd5209711b9edff23aef7f322969c1868621cded6f784ec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.048025 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | 72,158,297 | 72,326,628 |
4725ebdcac2020c272dd0e18409efc8135417fdc | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xb7e585c3193fbd380027a5b7f1d3f703a508a0041d3c9206e0f9488702bd7c20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.090909 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? | 72,158,298 | 72,326,628 |
50b1598c9644a4e439aa1aaa1de2a2593eb51edf | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x72aac72e0e71bc690d518c71971a55f826595e22f038ff7b32de7090a642e300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? | 72,158,930 | 72,202,000 |
84aefc8b36c6d448f3e80f05e83670ec6b6e9f08 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xcbc1eb3140ad7bbc08d7398e05335225d0c79ecba6fc30d0c0743f86255bf887 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-on-may-31 | XRP Up or Down on May 31? | 72,160,979 | 72,197,645 |
a1d29defb5ddda3ea33a0ee112332628dc8f067d | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x362180ec4f72afbe41663ce9594fa97bae31fee1da0256cb8bd60f22317969d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | yes | 0.089483 | bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,160,979 | 72,213,784 |
370e246c8af9b2ae71f4d7b4ba011921eccbeee8 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x8a4fbe8ca41b233d2bf7f849ed4d5f95c5f21f86ce9df6feebc57668bea008c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.066719 | ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,162,399 | 72,213,784 |
40bf4d1c4f4d644bc2769045d5729d2788ed18c8 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x38a72fec308d479eee516c1ae0887524b8aae8c7c6a7089aae1a1f651492386f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on May 30? | 72,164,592 | 72,164,592 |
5cf1fc9fbfaea1d19962b1c0abb9116bcd63f4cd | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x4c23b615e7b52275438e3ec03d8e21de19a867b5e4fcd8ef69ed6b8e6f2229d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on May 30? | 72,164,592 | 72,164,592 |
c264e56b01a4133a426250d4f82462e9ae9bec3f | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x34d9565012c56dfca5aee5020537f60492219ba9b571cdb9ce61df96283fe11f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-may | Will Solana dip to $140 in May? | 72,165,732 | 72,232,094 |
da200cb4732f5e203a6b2d39fbd1bdf043719342 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3b4ca904435a2ba5205cd06121252075faedeb491ca8e5188b65cbde6cdca38e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-111000-on-june-3 | Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? | 72,167,976 | 72,338,450 |
601b06f2c6d399932c22dfaf5bf94129bd51a0be | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xfd3c6abeb89869141c9314ddbecae3f914f984e092a0dded3266d5444c67a671 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | yes | 0.056964 | ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,170,151 | 72,201,186 |
bd2cb9299990215ca0d59ee107c4ca0fefca1cae | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xc8fe919d1e87d21bf00a1b9b3befbe7c4ea0a0dda2f5f09b11a8d5f4e6e662f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0.169935 | bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,170,151 | 72,213,784 |
35a24716cb967e4fbf80a26362c0cb4cb27c0f69 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x20220cad54b910b51cf12b1c836e3af89df76f1f2eabb240ce40aaafba36e057 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | yes | 0.042434 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? | 72,175,304 | 73,130,732 |
6b2d0ecc20ac72f79b4b40b5e1bb62377f9badd1 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x9ce11d16148db30572f9356eb6fe4ca594d48dc90abee3b2400879e6c3375390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | no | 0 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-may | Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? | 72,190,786 | 72,232,094 |
3fe0166ae1816630d056a6999940b699c078a625 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xd0ba157295a80808ba9fbe6db897686b33363766a2a8beea76263b8ce1b13ad5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.48025428678585574
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
3... | yes | 0.006519 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June? | 72,190,788 | 72,575,181 |
eabe667773ba7a08d98bb8bea899957a168a6c36 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x26aec6c2101b4f1f21786408cee684b54eeb97f145ed03a722eaf2bfd5659bc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on May 30? | Event: solana-price-on-may-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13749330607177004
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $30... | no | 0.061585 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? | 72,190,788 | 73,085,203 |
223784bf9bf031df3d1ee339ab0c56dc7c428cd6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x5c4a3aadb3984092c07f5d1e952c9b9519a3bedcc528287cdad5a3021d648840 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-abo... | yes | 0.016435 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? | 72,190,788 | 73,139,207 |
a8106754b6fb13c27afcbb31ef4f2390cc8df6c6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x1d77c3ff80fe181fb3e4e31b2b73bae7e134073fa6b35a96d1c49118e26970dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on Ju... | no | 0.81296 | ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,193,067 | 72,213,784 |
b6843ec3c25e708b414b928ad59a45d7c2c3ea23 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xdc6bbc29306de8dde1dd216c83078b689f195a8d0a0d502f0bb99b458d03292a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-above-2700-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.36080135037039907
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Solana Up or Down on May 31? | 72,195,263 | 72,202,000 |
63e1c10a8194663a6d9175d2d2c201baa579b69f | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xa9389cc819c1e2737a5eeaa9a45ce3e28d80745651de45e9b37b13ca56a08332 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.36080135037039907
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.076077410... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? | 72,195,263 | 73,084,655 |
7ed4ca8270dfd0afa700a8b809526c671c0c8ef7 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xe128eabfb34e9bb6bcea1e0d2022571e686c96daf3cd0848b7da06197fed0800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.07607741073455876
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 30? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 3... | yes | 0.000001 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | 72,197,291 | 72,697,546 |
0b74bab1492afb85222d31f959ac387078f0b414 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x992f6dc2ffc3ce1d7b19c21a9afbd664f6ddc04c7ed276d0f8bde5b7307bc0e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 30? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 30? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? ... | up | 0.034913 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? | 72,201,184 | 72,238,471 |
52233fa56cc3cd9d85d1b0ffd1ec4f7c99d2051b | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x9624091fa4900951a52d83c762121e3ec6bb521a0c7358a465440f775437e17e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 30? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.34240441349991885
3. Question: Will the ... | down | 0.002846 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? | 72,201,186 | 72,247,862 |
efb4cea7e232b828dcabce5ebca86867cfeee48c | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x266a54731e3f36f83931b4cff3ff6c665d2ac161b54a3f2e8af95afb9640c5fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.34240441349991885
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 0.24201 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on June 3? | 72,211,069 | 72,326,628 |
f1058a04b366afd203c26dae5a2584bcd54f6b77 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x4ea16be9d9f47da3d847e2d5c8b3b91d39237caa295a449ec3685f1737cf6c95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06331188158534068
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0007285... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,213,784 | 72,213,784 |
0f3d7ed8ae9eccfe7ea6b6f356511574500571de | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x25e0bfa819a128277106f7b284b4b1330c7b60f210269b75f458233cf1beac1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0007285783158660672
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0.147629 | bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? | 72,216,882 | 72,438,581 |
5e217085be1f4e8da9b829adbb81990a2f047a18 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xce29e08a3447906105a3a90ededc3c1f64729dfcba3bf3b8f720ca25e277e867 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.28599737555050275
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 0.009408 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-june | Will XRP reach $2.3 in June? | 72,232,101 | 72,575,181 |
361bf912ff9db4690f5cf43f5fbef8c9f3ef9fad | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x37f00df0b90ef30f13cad40bf1b051831b1b608e14ac747fcd62728c1c1e6e42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.21812894268393374
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ether... | yes | 0.020413 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | 72,232,101 | 73,132,920 |
f6f248d6357b39d28a3c8311a8ecde1987ad6c6f | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2e7413d80d0c05a401ca5a90167a60b41fa262884cd5d58411db30023379e806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on May 31? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-june | Will XRP dip to $2 in June? | 72,232,102 | 73,085,678 |
fae8906311ea69f35d7b85589d25fdd1007087bf | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x25db81c04d268a1d45c51c9a06841fc7824a8c75e041de518015234aff1d1c35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on May 31? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04802484475306312
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be... | no | 0.00878 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Will Solana dip to $120 in June? | 72,232,102 | 73,176,657 |
1478a4238cdd9adfcfd4ff7c7267440b471d410e | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xa56f168adeb1b021ca4394ffed504f581321ed12a5ec0d92a1e26ea773aec5b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04802484475306312
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09090909090909091
... | no | 0.002562 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? | 72,235,749 | 73,265,250 |
f7b992e71f7af9fca851a2af098d095c471e6250 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x84c95e05fd4ae9ddc0a276656f6d840da183a1c68b67db3e228163b1f6b44d47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09090909090909091
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on May ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Will Solana reach $220 in June? | 72,236,966 | 72,877,857 |
59a7e21c204bc93a8b93981dfa578cce19163aad | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x00f02b2c181ba8cd3ee14c7a8fb6fdaf23b9f2c8467b10cb59ec7dc8bec9b187 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 31? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET... | down | 0.006165 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-2 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? | 72,241,602 | 72,283,509 |
bce8ec3da30237c48917d4a0aad41044d88dd948 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x142597c68b1d76da9521ccc28c021fb6ed89a43c0639fbb6ea986f2f5269d120 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 31? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.08948342051263296
3. Question: Will the price... | down | 0.029284 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-2 | XRP Up or Down on June 2? | 72,247,869 | 72,283,509 |
6d2d1e0d7fa5c0c27596e5ad3598bce88dab8de9 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xf78fe0f8c294a3102a3812ee4755ad7ec2e36cd9a1b87a02f809d4a004e5506e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.08948342051263296
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choi... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Will Solana reach $160 in June? | 72,247,869 | 72,284,568 |
51e11cead90d4a84318429bbfbe78bc700673858 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x086a43f33f4a0eee8376a51370095395d01f9542f681a2b31895e92492a27505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0667190486533626
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 0.317232 | ethereum-price-june-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | 72,247,869 | 72,294,410 |
97a65d2591b21d5ada2f95ea3728008758b1cfc3 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x0ee43120e3342a5b002b33bc562c231059534c7fa5c9c6e9f0b49d5b4f08d6b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0.312257 | bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | 72,247,869 | 72,294,410 |
34643aa1db0d3fa186a1ad64d2385263a47d30cb | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3e53da488f6de8607b4b44c359cf1a1df384fa39357d1349fdb17e9f6b04f22f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on May 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-30-793 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Solana dip to $140 in May? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin above $111,000 on Jun... | no | 0.264454 | ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? | 72,258,639 | 72,326,628 |
183b4d00c96b1ae885c75d337cb9ca32f5f8b179 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x6248a9509c89d1b45bafa0c2eb4388f8605a7544a40add7e27c4b66804004929 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana dip to $140 in May? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-above-111000-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on... | no | 0.679262 | ethereum-price-june-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | 72,272,267 | 72,294,410 |
b82b49adca56f2c664dcd2a6fc394f21bcb00986 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xfc6d67480a218f933def0b3ce51e6539b40a394d554499c928f1ce2541dc9e08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-above-111000-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.056963914498399416
3. Question:... | yes | 0.102888 | ethereum-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 6? | 72,272,267 | 72,448,149 |
9f61401576e6aa3d282747deced2de5c9e1b84c7 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x483748043a1000aa40aed0a155a4e51b0fecfabd3ee1bc125c613e14d3dbbac0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.056963914498399416
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Will Solana dip to $100 in June? | 72,272,267 | 73,450,670 |
844b41286d8f55d5eb98a5af1c7a900ccf103239 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xa7191a4f50aaffe628d6e0841c659434ec6c854adc3a2442ca9249b5de191509 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16993549421627668
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.042434244843240425... | no | 0.051518 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in June? | 72,277,612 | 73,065,402 |
d68ac126be054686ee95cad2a7426614269f6953 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x58bf76643c4658e4b3149c934906c395d1a3e32a1c97e8816c1e07c1f67e7baa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.042434244843240425
2. Question: Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? | Event: what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June? | ... | no | 0.09705 | bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? | 72,281,856 | 72,438,506 |
45f15b23ffc2dc0b22814ea9a67611993769a488 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x55492157a58e8e60bceed14bd714ea1907b506a3fe86c48cd43cb334d57ecac0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? | Event: what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.006519237093035097
3. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? | E... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? | 72,284,564 | 72,316,568 |
74cb94fdbf316fe498b347eab3c263be612afcdf | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xe3fd8ecdedfe97e5f7adb8d9b1ff6dbf90a2795b88cca2353d8ab84c78c8df0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.006519237093035097
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06158461830732005
3. Question: Will Bitcoin... | yes | 0.001859 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Will Solana reach $180 in June? | 72,284,564 | 73,161,726 |
4c457b88d5e3f5a87d52ec43ba162e07dbf4acd1 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xddbbcd4d756582a7d04b77e6f6865e31c0b11d813e6be63552ee84b531d31120 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06158461830732005
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.016434790378477955
3. Question: Will the pri... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Solana Up or Down on June 3? | 72,284,568 | 72,326,629 |
6fdf0e1b8b6f7cc65ebf2d8ce2cd2a9dbe9db29b | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xe27665cccd48eb147467db3d5bca0c9cf377bbf04a90d0277015601e43650dc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.016434790378477955
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8129595841839031
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? | 72,287,859 | 72,314,659 |
8a167739a596c785a36928db2ac67bf67c0613c7 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x8d37bdaa1b1ef5ea62269e4ed15f9ffe1ef40268604017529478b816490005b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8129595841839031
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 31? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin dip... | yes | 0.067438 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Will Solana reach $200 in June? | 72,289,277 | 72,692,947 |
556ddbc8a6b11861cbb61197dd9b1593d1b83135 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xd196681a19b2ca2d2245331aca3e3e606c2045e5c490b3acd45194c5bc92ac1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 31? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-31 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Event: what-price-wi... | yes | 0.423123 | bitcoin-price-june-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | 72,289,278 | 72,333,911 |
f7ea7de6d81a0a21ede5666bc5798ece6d7df86e | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xd23ab6a6dd0483f7b5df349b25449cb306fec6ecf2802b6ba10defdfdb2fb3bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.933019575212959e-07
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on Jun... | yes | 0.891662 | ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | 72,289,278 | 72,333,911 |
2d7e1e8e9eab495f7faf1bbb994e97e1ea1ebf80 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2d38300d59bd23140f83338808848561a036eedf35f49f191eb60becd35f080f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.933019575212959e-07
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0349133422292137
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on... | no | 0.059573 | ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | 72,294,533 | 72,333,911 |
5a125052a3263f2e5865843a49c79c7a5c9f2692 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x6085a86af4e24e899f3872798902d9f2042173dac66652663527e512e5203379 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0349133422292137
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0028456693719019826
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be bet... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Solana Up or Down on June 4? | 72,322,495 | 72,350,322 |
822d2916c135509a8c8ed050fa33bac2a3bec2f9 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xc39f08bd6cfb8bdf4b7e9cfcadd44aed5d597f9d8c2c1ce74aa573bb6187b6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0028456693719019826
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.24200983565919923
3. Question: W... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-4 | XRP Up or Down on June 4? | 72,322,495 | 72,366,220 |
fccc00423efc73041dff07ca32c4c68b6d510679 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xf54e8a14f321694906b458dff4de23975974497a8b182943b2afcfb674155166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.24200983565919923
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence:... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | 72,322,495 | 72,366,220 |
9b45daa706106f6bc3a2a4fdadf2b6c0615621f6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x533698648ff2d4f95f73f431466de81d7ef4014acd288b4ee64a90ca51c7206c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.14762910221111... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | 72,326,491 | 72,366,220 |
c0690b15f8c99992c7de72db9e6cdecbe9c87ced | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x18f2c6bbb01d5293fbc87954407a2336a5d3e54cca2aadf632046d47e9d2c348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.14762910221111636
2. Question: Will XRP reach $2.3 in June? | Event: what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.009408203682871789
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | 72,333,911 | 72,333,911 |
b33defbfdabb0f5a176bc9e72943e6c0eb667d63 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x7b0fbb4f44a5c013ee9d2515135035604a18078f11bc64d75f7d9bc46c67c050 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will XRP reach $2.3 in June? | Event: what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.009408203682871789
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.020413299718773266
3. Question: Will XRP dip to $2 in... | yes | 0.269479 | bitcoin-price-june-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on June 4 at 5 PM ET? | 72,338,348 | 72,376,322 |
078bfd9747491ec4642be5691521271255f1431e | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xc77d9ac666adfb2022adadd84031a21f7d6c536f4dcce145e940f6c134286561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.020413299718773266
2. Question: Will XRP dip to $2 in June? | Event: what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Solana dip to $120 in June? | Even... | no | 0.198904 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? | 72,350,322 | 73,450,670 |
94dae5d43f3fd73a7d7de23b8762ee5f3bd0b4f3 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x0e63532d99df17efee2975718ad9e4b38bae7465303f82c8448ca46ac3fe0489 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will XRP dip to $2 in June? | Event: what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Solana dip to $120 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008780334101733768
3. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? | Event:... | up | 0.025986 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? | 72,366,234 | 72,403,083 |
92e7dc34e79bb2489b9140507362a03cb3187a23 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x0fd38fdde968e5b7862596ccabc06a806a4a5157a4fbab0a6c03e1272a9fef5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana dip to $120 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008780334101733768
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0025617155602776515
3. Question: Will Solana re... | down | 0.049678 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? | 72,366,866 | 72,399,875 |
99fd6028ef8ac5bddd425e7fa1bba28fa4070c9d | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3eba3847aec78aa8c590eed8864ccb3841ec03ab79eef78dabdaebab1e29e586 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0025617155602776515
2. Question: Will Solana reach $220 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.2089344272520483e-07
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on June 4 at 5 PM ET? | 72,376,322 | 72,376,322 |
40975036beb0ac5c69a64facecb0ed11287ba97c | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x6cb560d38a1aa5a3af7a1031d533b7e0bd2d14a2d7af4be58f13acd651d9783c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana reach $220 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.2089344272520483e-07
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-2 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.006165059632254933
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on Jun... | yes | 0.186934 | bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | 72,381,204 | 72,413,436 |
3beae32887010ad53155be28856fc43ebeb7d079 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x185b896ded1f39b8ca4bccbc4fdec9e4217b5521bfa64c26bf11c4d750aac715 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-2 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.006165059632254933
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 2? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-2 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.029283855934106883
3. Question: Will Solana reach $160 in June? | Eve... | no | 0.147799 | ethereum-price-june-5-5pm-et-455 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | 72,394,018 | 72,413,436 |
95a54371c2b03597eac2900c1d65566e1d663f09 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xba2f2094a1132005492ba16601933905bba116158f690bf8e623457eb541722f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 2? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-2 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.029283855934106883
2. Question: Will Solana reach $160 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 o... | no | 0.001959 | ethereum-price-june-5-5pm-et-455 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | 72,394,018 | 72,413,436 |
4daf87f43a190d9fc728c81420a6fe4a9cf72e14 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xfae2490cae11a43923c6a5621d9c537626522e8b192355555ad158aeb0828a81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana reach $160 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3172315495366742
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.001013 | bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | 72,396,892 | 72,413,436 |
771494249fa8d46f27b9476a7bdc694569c8cb2d | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x0d1faeb1eb44035b7676619ed5d3264d75d08f208a6ccd510e5e47e666ad1851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3172315495366742
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: no... | yes | 0.105911 | bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | 72,396,893 | 72,413,436 |
5af5e800e3d93d1b86cb433c428188723be3d57d | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xf86d028c818015f5d6857fe5a46ed0c094a7082d9a70ee14b3a888890eb0bb69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.31225673349571287
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confide... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-6-864 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? | 72,403,037 | 72,433,989 |
bb0af1b9bcf9f9021da4fe17c175b863dde889c0 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x6922b872dbad8696b85cb89cbe37ffbc2b9f98923127f02e882fbb126c057185 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.26445354306955926
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Will Solana dip to $80 in June? | 72,407,011 | 72,684,346 |
7c96f5b92954d4bab6dc89a6e5b39d8be54258b7 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x68d661c154cd3fe4ca96bbe21bb979ed3fe9293f20e620236c276e4be821fa36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6792615831630415
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0... | no | 0.293368 | bitcoin-price-june-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | 72,417,174 | 72,453,970 |
3134f575bd2c0f5d9afb02042684c64faa882124 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x612f5fc29cf37203259beb8972cf36a0ebb54dbe9316a925b683ace0261ff257 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 6? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.10288757403879782
2. Question: Will Solana dip to $100 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Ethereu... | yes | 0.146258 | bitcoin-price-june-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | 72,432,453 | 72,453,970 |
2b94345ed4e73d31e85488bc995b1fc573f87930 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xcbcf20d8d72f343bb4144feaee8af6638c3827e118c2e5cc8ba167e132b22300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana dip to $100 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in June? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05151760031338222
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be b... | no | 0.009092 | solana-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on June 6? | 72,433,308 | 72,433,308 |
6c12f93b5bdddadc5ba866cc513e41c92d680f95 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xb1a04a18ccb09f487a276bdad38c06e2e8bf5e578cd26794eee80f06685c7a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in June? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05151760031338222
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09705025384510063
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? | 72,440,345 | 72,440,345 |
6a64cd3bf88cce80370c7ce5b50263bf6cdaa4e8 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xac1479babaa5afe33bbe805f1be1cf2da1492f88e524330c166e218e43770745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09705025384510063
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Solana reach $180... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Solana Up or Down on June 7? | 72,440,764 | 72,481,573 |
dec1fda4e51f0a60d17510131cc5227dcd5d4bcd | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xda3562c564338adf4d3a8cddff3398e056769a2278ec1fcfdb29f58930f63785 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Solana reach $180 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0018592682454409897
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 3? | Event: so... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-7 | XRP Up or Down on June 7? | 72,440,764 | 72,481,573 |
3399ee7769f2902308241217b22f701aa3254a68 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x5a17f314840e7f82b29c9e9a734268fbf5f2d93a2c0272f92fa5d65c3f216d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana reach $180 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0018592682454409897
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 3? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? | Event: et... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | 72,440,779 | 72,440,779 |
5692228db8c1533d98056727a853c0fae868bb6b | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xdc79c07243354291a20e3229d85a90afb105837b00281722ffebc953f477fdb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 3? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Solana reach $200 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-h... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 7? | 72,441,803 | 72,481,573 |
10c1286de97596b32fce64a60e9527d9959e835e | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xe23f906c50cacaf12210acce558a0184842c2d6e16889b093e9c39a0719edeb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Solana reach $200 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06743782935998381
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? | 72,444,091 | 72,479,501 |
1028c18acde25d765dd3898470de8af51977c2d6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x72420399b13a065956d904ff432b95ed606e1ce2ea38cd86943c9af1571cdf48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana reach $200 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06743782935998381
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4231225259021576
3. Qu... | no | 0.141499 | bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,448,161 | 72,495,587 |
40ede0b8cc31b48de5d2d7a4bae6b3c2c059261d | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xeb575e1cffe906b45162cb525e2b79ec03ce567d8e0aa1f6b7fb5a15879cf4ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4231225259021576
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes |... | no | 0.145696 | bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,451,802 | 72,495,587 |
d9f3de23ee51902c6c34cd1cf46404f553c74e7f | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x630ac7b96951fdc582e59c81f1f44eed98d413db451188c2a59cdca7f3ac1280 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.891661594643944
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: n... | yes | 0.345218 | ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,461,390 | 72,495,587 |
b5d213344d716b42931c7bed01b9015be522831d | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xdd613e8634dd8a5dcc9ed3cdb22819f84b70aff74d5d912840e3df75a5f44c89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05957313557602465
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 4? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Do... | yes | 0.293017 | bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,461,390 | 72,495,587 |
b4510cca32a16245cdce2c9f18dc3c2f53cdb749 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x9e5da85871a94b18a8591812dd4145d9bf55d8040fda6bc49006325a696045ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 4? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 4? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choic... | no | 0.064466 | ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,477,017 | 72,495,587 |
b25de720e7ffe026f915bcfb156dffac96999e43 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2ab5dcb1d15d47cb054c68791e2c62bf8acaa28f0c8bff09eb51f12c37532995 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 4? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | C... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? | 72,491,768 | 72,525,954 |
a2aebe994dc8f37c7c6ead0fe1930b2991b6abe5 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2ffd47757246873fa96d79eda828e38b873d1066b72c7ac0d3a3c6f1ecde1d82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 3 ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,495,587 | 72,495,587 |
9d9f0ed905929508b3c624b9da31927fa5497340 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x33378cb32c927b7a9357cbcc31e4b5fa53449ab092d279e545a60f92755b12cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bi... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,495,587 | 72,495,587 |
ac44b44d52dcb2c7c76b60d3778ef1d083394722 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xf446a9d3084fc25aafa78acffc2479191873880939491e464a6aa17f8a15ac50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-3-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on June 4 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-4-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | 72,495,587 | 72,495,587 |
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