sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
aef22f25ebd8016dcb55c6297a5e91a2894e9369 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xdf1242cd50aaa9c74ed0dccc90985cb27dc31dfea8123d4987d7f8cc964c8a80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on June 4 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-4-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2694790317089698
2. Question: Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.198903727763472... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Solana Up or Down on June 8? | 72,516,282 | 72,521,286 |
12b4e3c6c4d8ea391957346a222b7d2ac8af1dc6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x7bf78904d207d4943229670e24f573de07c1bb86447c89723545c4eb35702dd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? | Event: what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.19890372776347284
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.025986388599316856
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on... | yes | 0.001468 | xrp-above-2pt10-on-june-13 | XRP above $2.10 on June 13? | 72,530,307 | 72,722,186 |
a233c23952eeabfd4fc9645f8c9e6be84cc22482 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x180bad59d520687999ce845619c169a63926a2812e2ab3ffb6353ab75ae0c42b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.025986388599316856
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.04967783242399193
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be le... | no | 0.026263 | bitcoin-price-june-9-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 9 at 5 PM ET? | 72,539,916 | 72,575,445 |
ad41f5d1e8ac7c93f5fe288591dbaa8576bea558 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xf39ec144492c8a372370aa3bdd663a22a60a40d4fe5a4c2c205d883a8c3c1096 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.04967783242399193
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on June 4 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-4-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pr... | yes | 0.33357 | ethereum-price-june-9-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 9 at 5 PM ET? | 72,554,707 | 72,575,445 |
3598edf12fbccf03e2440c2be1ea6378f9234b09 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x44a8080028f9fbeca18b7fe1d793aa36a91a8d2420fc96ca3a8e66575ff57a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on June 4 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-4-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.186934... | yes | 0.060547 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13? | 72,561,385 | 72,729,447 |
07b973a5eeb8677b980482c9c0192ed3e4bfb944 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x455a00e8faa70a1d924bf1da1a9b4d9ff63d23650520968a0ff0946cad507738 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.18693438003980636
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-5-5pm-et-455 | Choic... | no | 0.194954 | ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | 72,570,930 | 72,646,354 |
af05fffdb1a0b4104efa9f85215272aba5d4a097 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3d1fd102ec74088ef809f35eb84019cb849a1277bcf4bda80f8ee17c09a9e49c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-5-5pm-et-455 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.14779854351372906
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-5-5pm-et-4... | yes | 0.126189 | ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 13? | 72,570,930 | 72,729,447 |
63cbb935133eda26c10d11cf91a1aaa7fdaaab09 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3e394d97fae9f159a9f84fc3937bc5f2ecba545cca00aa160a5d3d60297fa98e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-5-5pm-et-455 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.001959422974305722
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | ... | yes | 0.02772 | ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 13? | 72,570,930 | 72,729,447 |
d78b3dae2b544474997535fe5459de84c02e1ef3 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xc7cd7c0fb395e9da076b62679671efe43e17efc4f9b69a15ce20be3badf9209f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0010126876796277965
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Choi... | yes | 0.919071 | ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | 72,595,224 | 72,646,354 |
5860752a5b2c0bad3f58750125a1df51ce63e7ad | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xbe9e470571304e966cf632bedc71d8e0c434caab3ce6f008c49fdf97af3bf24c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 5 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-5-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.10591142759156588
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-6-864 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0.159834 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? | 72,595,224 | 73,096,497 |
051488cc6d8c80b8c40f12ee72dcd1452a2203b9 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xd24eefc225817386cf2f80f40720ed752667abae3c597e0a85e947a9b457bef7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-6-864 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Solana dip to $80 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.148740333259732e-08
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less tha... | no | 0.271178 | ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on June 13? | 72,601,201 | 72,729,447 |
21b04091eafde35c896107693524eb6791282957 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xb6b9a2b7921835113152fb8fda9e44914a4329e1caee2a2d0904505f1fbf8c4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana dip to $80 in June? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 9.148740333259732e-08
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-6-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.29336777738366066
3. Q... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-11 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? | 72,605,666 | 72,646,354 |
e1ab1d46e0b03fec4be98156a99f48f2b9b52a98 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x1e83db940ebd4703166c72253e3476c7a84c37d33bc9bf7bc55e9a5437de5dad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-6-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.29336777738366066
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-6-5pm-et | Choice: yes | C... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-11-847 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? | 72,605,668 | 72,646,354 |
23cd4d40c2594504cc4a9113861ce81e6d8c53f3 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x326d652da88fe0f059d6e116e5b97e36620ec240c8c648f2734fdaf44647fbfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-6-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14625753228501362
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on June 6? | Event: solana-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00909... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-11 | XRP Up or Down on June 11? | 72,605,668 | 72,646,354 |
cb0092b747b1f102ef74157f7c742557fee5c3b2 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x89c73075b8ff0bcad138b1af2f25aa9b4c5cf9d694991d5b7e757d0cd00581ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on June 6? | Event: solana-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.009092398871306227
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana Up or... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-11 | Solana Up or Down on June 11? | 72,612,855 | 72,636,558 |
7ff77ee496e32bec6f0006e439d46c91376f7066 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x6fb72e3803753aeef55c265a65182447b1f8cebdc4d0f898aa53d4961a8f6df0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 7? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 7? | Event: xrp-up-or-do... | no | 0.047929 | bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,612,855 | 72,675,909 |
1647023b1ae0a2eeacb555df5e2c93f5ae457ea4 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2acadffca4b129d45960712e16144c1c1c57920b5edd9e9d450889c3b1953539 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 7? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 7? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | Event... | no | 0.089808 | bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,635,733 | 72,675,909 |
956c44cfc19ef903479bd1cfd01bda69c19b6f44 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x4af488bf4011738eadbcfc269ef9413e499f6591118591eccf53b0a5ec5df2f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 7? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-6-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 7? | Eve... | no | 0.249747 | ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,635,733 | 72,675,909 |
2efb3e464f613233471abf0d3557a14f90015f2a | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x68d6df3ac5ace8e14391436599ece22c073530556d5e46d493860a9c6bb5d18d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-6-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 7? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June... | yes | 0.153691 | ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,635,733 | 72,675,909 |
4bca2b88484ffc440106c0605fa0b744902558d7 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xeae467a1514984a4efd10a7b12660f4c91684076b4264bad6d6b2edef1f025e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 7? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 7 ... | no | 0.828664 | ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,636,558 | 72,675,909 |
a3683b14e398bc16d7126b6856be975027beeb9b | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3f0dded0e8594ab3fb2099b15f6e1a7151f7fdec3e7e81871c98a87e42b93218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-7 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.14149860013817733
3. Question: Will th... | yes | 0.048646 | ethereum-above-2800-on-june-17 | Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? | 72,636,558 | 72,860,505 |
408d2cea7a682a4ad96416fcc143281faaade45a | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x70c31faba6fc478f8e5feb22f7a56315955a74fa7e995ff7483edf80ca616cc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.14149860013817733
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice:... | yes | 0.140408 | bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,636,879 | 72,675,909 |
73dd58e1090a8db6039e3a7a51645b810cab3963 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x44201cf55c19c28e84aa0d1eda11e82ae8e6062597b1f7877e648780148620c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.14569561765935715
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choic... | yes | 0.094447 | solana-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on June 13? | 72,637,422 | 72,729,447 |
80682a9b1150ee3578577166dcf5f34c20f8ab70 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xe53202940b35e42664b707b9546e1648c9d86488793a35dd4e4cf891043d0cc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3452176615255723
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | 72,646,354 | 72,646,354 |
3d3364b46d49ab8cea74ed3a4c0f2c71db6457ac | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x07b221db5b226c38887d13015e07a80b4fc27ef7e3db3a069d4e32949b1ba96b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2930166067616029
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no... | yes | 0.013386 | bitcoin-price-june-12-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | 72,654,574 | 72,700,903 |
1c53cdd90014b467c1d85255a24afe3e7d314e8b | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x40571c4b30428e9bca6b4084bf6a98069508ec486d51e6b52bae3febb5ec5d1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.06446639714419988
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,675,909 | 72,675,909 |
618f2af3300924f1681e97661cc7d546535c265d | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x93573406073309413e258f924aadfd3b420239f071fe9625022fe03dc3b4d9a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be... | no | 0.400068 | bitcoin-price-june-12-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110K on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | 72,675,912 | 72,700,903 |
34168a5a2adc2905380c61da4fcee3bec26794fb | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xce9438b09350083cdb09456745c9c9bc3086f31ace749001017cd5f75887c513 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-13 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? | 72,686,993 | 72,728,596 |
be4a075ccff6f9eb72cbe93d004ba380e285c07e | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x83bbb8d76c413e911676d6c021b5ced472a5e8a0fd1861426aa12b0418799a63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 0.041321 | bitcoin-price-on-june-17-549 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on June 17? | 72,696,445 | 72,906,961 |
229fb3a81bd8bfd83fe40c76b7a5235380e14542 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x4f8e1a9f3479c01155e02d23b6500038c56235898d1fec61933d499150da574d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 7 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 8? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP above $2.10 on June 13? ... | no | 0.132933 | ethereum-price-on-june-17-213 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 17? | 72,696,938 | 72,906,961 |
065c3c15f7c45825bf1f64290d8e34dd87d90f05 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x11f6569038489b05ae1e97a0450c6abda13109e3e8868ab3e87bd41dbb0824c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 8? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP above $2.10 on June 13? | Event: xrp-above-2pt10-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0014675701527555236
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 9... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-12-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2900 on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | 72,700,903 | 72,700,903 |
826b6234d4ba4bea8fa728498f458b1978f4dfb3 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x97c429fdc0a1c2162caeb706b7656106d7c2b9f7d247bfa71e71ef11b1975400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP above $2.10 on June 13? | Event: xrp-above-2pt10-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0014675701527555236
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 9 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-9-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.026262699059651895
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | 72,723,245 | 72,723,245 |
da2c0dd8ae11f9f8fc6ce7414abc4d2ed54de296 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x13dff5487e8720fd87c5adfcf750831ec59a44a50d7f76549ca6c373677e84be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 9 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-9-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.026262699059651895
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 9 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-9-5pm-et | Choice: yes ... | yes | 0.803706 | ethereum-price-june-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | 72,725,214 | 72,740,354 |
04761d9dac18665091a02ce8a6448e4f4efd20f5 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x6be04d92e2ece7969080568d93df63fe3cfbf2136b1e306fe086a9e4f3dd4151 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 9 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-9-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.33356983091929593
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 0.974456 | ethereum-price-june-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | 72,725,214 | 72,740,354 |
951d209ce1b1ddbcdf871fa19c7196124c566195 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x12b77b5b321a9271ed3dee687b19c7802d44744d1a3838fd8b85d284c426adcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0605466315969096
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-14 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? | 72,725,214 | 72,769,194 |
f78366a0eaef683cb89d25a4b50f14558c429b52 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x50fb5405796f8c1321858e674d0c752d27bd53776ebe17a10649a88bfd056f43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.19495357827464535
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 0.004434 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,733,224 | 72,786,472 |
d00466796fd91724f41421c45891db4cc3f634bb | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xab2e36f9e8ecf35f1e44605833b94f28afcc957ffd6f823b075c467230b5bc9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12618915955854176
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0.105756 | ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,733,224 | 72,786,472 |
4ddc8764866f75c5ebab44d407b0754848827a44 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xb7a4c67a33f6ebae2cc1fd72252f71668b2f97e04ce0824602d24c1d58249809 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.02771954637706645
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Choice: yes |... | yes | 0.09443 | ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,733,224 | 72,786,472 |
3f43849a9d799764eeaa0701981b4744759569b9 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x32a0cb786d60771719c976fd32b12ffb243ce5377b8646ce34cf67fce6845e6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9190708366198642
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.159834193... | no | 0.463324 | bitcoin-price-on-june-17-549 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? | 72,733,224 | 72,906,961 |
7d827989d72f6665d1cef737c972703d9c610b70 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x927fa2e907a750d57a58c0510439193339e9fd83fea589be08c0f21635326bf4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.15983419327804343
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on June 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2711779937718253
3. Question: Et... | no | 0.156898 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,733,225 | 72,786,472 |
d64a76e689a4f9aff84885247e9711771683864c | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xa882e8f48047f97d3b1f341c9c98e92c1b484b812bde299b96c0f69cfa5388c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on June 13? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2711779937718253
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on J... | no | 0.599243 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,733,225 | 72,786,472 |
96c44c186277acc633e7ab78bbf3d85f87c9353e | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x73ebe48e47a87fb1186588d65ee0498767d22b090478ef45b9266999d9873515 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-11-847 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 11? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-j... | yes | 0.038404 | ethereum-price-on-june-20 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 20? | 72,733,225 | 73,013,946 |
b761f44c45fc1064b469a1351dee5b8a1e111b3f | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x31b82efaf43ce6c5608dde944444b9b39f52450ef8aeb22807907af612de07d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-11-847 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 11? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 11? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-... | yes | 0.044944 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,740,146 | 72,786,472 |
02b37bbac46733953dc0827e80132d7fe721cbea | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x10c6cedeccf9567318e2ee07267853b378e5e9e021c4f4819b840540c6297beb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 11? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 11? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | E... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | 72,740,354 | 72,740,354 |
67788dac4b73ccf778292e3191c7ba46b06d3fd6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x32c4b30cdf8d9a6a9dac8de387e09c67d796eb17d079719a1670c737dc57c2eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 11? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04792942811637312
3. Question: Will the pric... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-13-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | 72,740,354 | 72,740,354 |
298689ca6d6bc1ac526ca905a696843b85ab1461 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xe743e94f2e826fdd2e8dc3afb3ee4d6286a5e626d5688863440dfa5af2a60b82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04792942811637312
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: no ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-15 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? | 72,764,025 | 72,803,831 |
8147776b6c02e86d66af9470c122a58e09d609ba | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xefa4811cec52ffeea2a10cd21fe88923f8b5589e077862c31105e619e62d398e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.08980839800209203
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,786,472 | 72,786,472 |
b44185815934593c1ed70a3112672eece1786afe | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x13282a2fd570fa389bf07782475f0f8a276c9b4364cc0c7a3a7c74ba83b65823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2497468586343803
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choic... | yes | 0.134117 | bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | 72,803,831 | 72,824,257 |
087fc1d479b4f67f971aab8b5bcb868d91137d6b | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3df716a1c0f1e9536f099342c88b3b00aab1d4a638cb4ecc83721a008b715ce5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1536909026463717
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et |... | yes | 0.108552 | ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | 72,803,831 | 72,824,257 |
a94431d4f0c5f7d26c976a34aa17def2bc42e587 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x58da9107101e787cfe74b23dde2c6e5a89d5f6e64274cccb2502d752208016e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8286641693164803
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? | Event: ethereum-above-2800-on-june-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04864552179287... | no | 0.157847 | bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | 72,805,093 | 72,824,257 |
ab8e5aa206e11ae1fd318cbc1b1ca5a073e2e2b4 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x6044c8063c4d278ced79463999a9fccfee6fe05c478394ade050612754b18543 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? | Event: ethereum-above-2800-on-june-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04864552179287326
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14040780889701... | yes | 0.573892 | bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | 72,805,093 | 72,824,257 |
3f73fd7d6a3159f20435945fe577e493a764b2d6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x42bbc0c0c08c81f752bd97ff06c16b19df46c191dd5ca7ed7a779f7be997c76c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.14040780889701795
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on June 13? | Event: solana-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 0.418466 | bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | 72,809,918 | 72,860,509 |
cd4246e5bf589cd601d1fc03e3f27acc210472e7 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xbf856d6cffcb3bcf0b1af62b69758a09a44b8b5c391c4d605cf07fd243d28e69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on June 13? | Event: solana-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09444730590091907
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | down | 0.307198 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-16 | Solana Up or Down on June 16? | 72,809,918 | 72,860,509 |
cc8d600b30c25b9b13765538d4912c817486f5e6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x99a2f4ce1992f9dd15d1741b0c5a6f85694fb391ce9d10593181b6a18eb9e645 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 10 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-10-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 0.020658 | ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | 72,813,337 | 72,824,257 |
ed4eee3ab33824dfa212486916a4b6470ede2885 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x050a9471e88df1131eb222803ecc9249ab5b8b990fbe7a8e9f0694e1c6994dcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-12-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.013385908311480533
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice:... | yes | 0.105973 | ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | 72,823,680 | 72,860,509 |
7e041e5589cc6ef197cadbf1379aa73c56a202a0 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x47f5d478a6edf673d7181446885970afc17ecffc9e7afdf4e25b3fc486b29120 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110K on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-12-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.400... | yes | 0.751757 | bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | 72,823,680 | 72,860,509 |
0018eee30288961b45c7ce1688ba2b6ba0c8adae | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x00472a8b58a124f5a1a3a72daa5fa9a4e35b374e225a8c12c979d848256c3e57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110K on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-12-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.40006813759625515
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-13 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will t... | no | 0.010254 | ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | 72,823,680 | 72,860,510 |
433035414b01599d04a5696f545d69fcadcc3f24 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x5808940f24df2a16dce53b880ae031a10c1f20d46f460be6159e83d0c5de5cec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-13 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on June 17? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-17-549 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04132138746063138
3. Question: Will the price of Et... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | 72,824,257 | 72,824,257 |
0558ab0107d526feae911add413d2548e8c2631d | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x8ed304835822ac71da618fbc1fba2cc89f3973edeca6e0f60b069f8d400c5907 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on June 17? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-17-549 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04132138746063138
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 17? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-17-213 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.132933147902... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | 72,824,257 | 72,824,257 |
62c6ab142644827d71cb2c258034fa3059895f60 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x4c4c51ea8c5478f572a35f5ca0431f86baca6f3db84d412c81f974132407f5ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 17? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-17-213 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.13293314790249083
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2900 on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-12-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.223972 | ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | 72,826,815 | 72,860,510 |
ae1649207e99f6d3fdba51a998ec5ea3f6867cd7 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x3feae50092b4e7d98354ec100481d532f1357f8ce20fe83841a4f594021ebe70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2900 on June 12 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-12-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | down | 0.077137 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-16 | XRP Up or Down on June 16? | 72,840,996 | 72,860,509 |
6421b636ddc32f32f87cb18c09a50fa07d6f5331 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xa4f827f6fe1e8d7577bb1abcd75d5f6bb905a04e9612c3e45b42c0641ab2bc3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.80370614256... | no | 0.811442 | ethereum-price-on-june-17-213 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2800 and $2900 on June 17? | 72,842,233 | 72,906,961 |
7345567d97207265323d798a4aadd8a70b66a907 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x38a491307ff42059e0e570c8caef96f1706f64bd9d3cf7d99a73c2a7b23938e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8037061425651175
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-13-5pm-et | Choice:... | no | 0.037717 | bitcoin-price-on-june-20-453 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? | 72,844,553 | 73,000,157 |
e3dccc1fff7c299ccda69adb38aec4f222be8e95 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2b4d0b6854e2b3d1c9ed2402a8cf2e634f523a3ebe38999b501e302cc0a7eeee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-13-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9744559059536431
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-14 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the p... | yes | 0.066548 | ethereum-price-on-june-20 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 20? | 72,844,554 | 73,013,946 |
f471b913de1591d2f36bdde4670d6ef6021267b5 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x07169227f20c1ad1889dc0151a6a1d6e3f564777239c4f70ebded4f08b9206b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-14 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0044338727023398436
3. Question: ... | no | 0.089012 | ethereum-price-june-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | 72,856,148 | 72,906,961 |
799f31a5a9ea75544c47f3d22b5ac992d4c5cc80 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xa4f64e85ef24d674db68c13e2ef78713f231bd4f50994948ba81909e5b0626cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0044338727023398436
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et ... | yes | 0.638139 | ethereum-price-june-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | 72,856,508 | 72,906,961 |
57ee2fbd3414ffd5d6bf77b846f81bbb9b944dd8 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xd330490ae50b617d63263240da59a916c73f30e3e0e5686961b44186cd37c01f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10575615741105614
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choi... | yes | 0.179605 | bitcoin-price-june-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | 72,860,505 | 72,906,962 |
59cb501270b61025d23f91150bde83ad68024b17 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x74aa9fcc55dfde125b0b55049c5671f52b06055c538b44c3cf97564e2897b41c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09442974747955749
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-17-549 | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0.962869 | ethereum-price-june-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | 72,860,506 | 72,906,961 |
0675e885c9796c379e4e3a8e5917a305dde59284 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2a23942ccb7fe3fa438cd566095bdb6311cc100fc52f1f55b747fb2a5b1d670b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-17-549 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4633240958573925
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0.956422 | bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | 72,860,509 | 72,860,509 |
1cc13962546c51033e1bc9825378e864c2069a3e | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xa1078bebaff8ec21cc1f0587ad6db67fc6f05acb785e46ee349f916953a8ec3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.15689830857082576
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0.023493 | bitcoin-price-june-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | 72,877,858 | 72,906,961 |
7e13decfdd3a21de0ce0cbc13ec183d58cb3a7ac | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xc27d987f50014b06cc1a13ee397aa592481505fe1092e48f3e61b3d85ff1b34d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5992431640229373
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 20? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0.060665 | bitcoin-price-june-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | 72,877,858 | 72,906,961 |
0fd52ac195f7d38ea8fcb4824eada2b7b2a87f2e | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x4f215069e17ec9dbb0a6d108edc098ef88b517c0e15d0b07a7f9e52bbaba1deb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 20? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.038404061912786724
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 0.416187 | bitcoin-price-june-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on June 17 at 5 PM ET? | 72,877,858 | 72,906,962 |
a325e17fe775b27882478ff81471418cb0320cb2 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x8a69c4a84cc463402e522355d506882132b6940cd3e5320038ac9ed726e65502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.044943787106475876
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-13-5pm-et | C... | no | 0.895621 | ethereum-price-on-june-20 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 20? | 72,906,966 | 73,013,946 |
320b10e700cd891db6b420a9e2848182ae55b7c3 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x485461068d4db1266591f2ae522a5d8efd7bf9b191e51971951f81f8464d8831 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | no | 0.056121 | bitcoin-price-june-18-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | 72,922,949 | 72,940,800 |
7a4b423e94882043baa49c2d9bb4011b3fccb76a | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xe82dae174ed68b89a5c2327be814ba80e5f351c6dc54bc08c44bd2097f0c2d5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 13 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-13-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-15 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-19 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? | 72,929,410 | 72,967,567 |
7cdfb3bf3c075915d6cd5e7fd5a83fc7ce6b810c | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xa45e790118d1be6947609039b918308877036163052fbebd3e40509791b3c909 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-15 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-19 | XRP Up or Down on June 19? | 72,930,376 | 72,967,567 |
3d1c4cdc0134c4c1f5b39e5493e274e6902c22bc | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2ba0bfcf2d4f6936d02d9f0f0ac5731d2af738d85c31f54c332e4dcf5ebda8c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-14-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-19 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? | 72,930,796 | 72,967,567 |
9342b4616f0ff121527f60784f04c8d8d85b8ec9 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xcfa46e1dbf704928d52b80a49db15a10de569238e3a62ce155ddcd3ddfa27bb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13411658967549026
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-19 | Solana Up or Down on June 19? | 72,932,948 | 72,967,567 |
5366e41604c85ae2d4334884e195c62a524a6008 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xd46daa10a7da9fc90e862dcf68d2555bf1bd9abe4ee8a97f1e0af951730cf5c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.10855175110845701
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | ... | yes | 0.098255 | bitcoin-price-june-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 19 at 5 PM ET? | 72,940,823 | 72,985,462 |
e680bb2bea6326bdaf5cbb3a23be052ad44301b8 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x8dc7a806fa6b551dd085f2c4c11f87ca24f7185cfd5e60f9db1af9a4114f90d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.15784657505399177
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: ... | yes | 0.102725 | bitcoin-price-june-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 19 at 5 PM ET? | 72,961,434 | 72,985,462 |
35ea50ce77d3b6012623c97d72eae7d4d8a99b9a | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x204de92b9b7710ce3896c8a9eae82425d51e264f2ddfc79918d6552dd23aa74d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5738915919909626
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0.131157 | ethereum-price-june-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 19 at 5 PM ET? | 72,962,178 | 72,985,462 |
dfeadb647cca62f7a705a6eb9668c2a956a1e6ef | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x8618126e530953b5361c37df35e5b39dad5b2e08bd09de8c5b0a3bbcee4a6d99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.41846620483402974
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 16? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.30719815680167467
3. Questio... | yes | 0.355991 | ethereum-price-june-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 19 at 5 PM ET? | 72,962,178 | 72,985,462 |
13296eee2443afd9a15742f7d464091fc54739b0 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xf36020894b8a38b20ea2b73a9a6c9bbd6099fa584784b5eb63a62ec877ad7236 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 16? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.30719815680167467
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.02065814625489117... | yes | 0.186619 | ethereum-price-june-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 19 at 5 PM ET? | 72,962,178 | 72,985,462 |
46c1b7590f14ad204b8614e05637a2690fc3107c | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x5c3cbded71e97bd80be1ed598a4c3059b841e0e55e6ab895b7cb7b660749ad16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.02065814625489117
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et ... | no | 0.046615 | bitcoin-price-june-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 19 at 5 PM ET? | 72,962,968 | 72,985,462 |
e7d56d92997215e99d845a88b0ebf9e7195808e0 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xbba6f6e2f899e9e3b262f72005bb5090f456dd3a3b6de7a9a126681ed24a5ee4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1059730492810105
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice... | no | 0.166357 | bitcoin-price-june-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 19 at 5 PM ET? | 72,964,085 | 72,985,462 |
72477843b94b16f7155f3bc319a67f9699b6eafd | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x726cc0316e7fdf5a284e9a8b270ed2d7f96ee8d4f2e6d7d536520214d47aaa58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7517572636601333
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: no ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-20 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? | 72,969,358 | 73,013,946 |
e1bdccd30b4017506ef3eaeb9a3301f423358029 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x15d42593788fc04c7bb95bed52ea4030fb4d78511c5e853aa39bc7a5745447b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.010254458615381682
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-20 | Solana Up or Down on June 20? | 72,969,359 | 73,006,968 |
e7d4a7c32881ab167f1656aa85988255c3efd150 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x7920e3bb516cbab81188057de05115452eadcbff2a6a8db6202f780803bca04a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-20 | XRP Up or Down on June 20? | 72,969,359 | 73,006,968 |
cb11df35007194da4553616694ce40a95030510c | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xfb5e64951eec4d2b49fcdb45dd04bab40e75bcfe1b9b4b9fe033314dddb709da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 15 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-15-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 19 at 5 PM ET? | 72,985,462 | 72,985,462 |
fc5ef59202f66d2dfe9b108f001ad109d747170b | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x2a283d4df9643bb315d57774dddd7517005a9620f0434493bb311b0dc0f72ecf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 16 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-16-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.22397172231969464
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 16? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.07713732378825053
3. Qu... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-20 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? | 72,998,813 | 73,010,450 |
ec725230616cb9ec2f1453f650cb587346b151e6 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0x8f95c0ef683ae989cb953916bd54bd40395136ff1eb6805b31dec0362feb8e78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 16? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.07713732378825053
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2800 and $2900 on June 17? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-17-213 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8114420463852122
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0.307323 | ethereum-price-on-june-24 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on June 24? | 72,998,813 | 73,176,651 |
d9a3ca69351c06801b67699f3a67bd89fc7a29c2 | 0x323b16159312f463c45b3b02ab73c11ec17f9fe7 | 0xff8d2d68e36f9b20b6dc3a6bcf83aa8f21d9402986753a8b1e5beb3d3999a789 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2800 and $2900 on June 17? | Event: ethereum-price-on-june-17-213 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8114420463852122
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-20-453 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03... | yes | 0.357982 | bitcoin-price-june-20-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 20 at 5PM ET? | 73,004,027 | 73,044,046 |
8b040923c3f76ae7058992a2fb7fd916c58d7362 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x2b7e444ea1c52493d34a1e62a4d1215d635492618502d3b4df0d262bd8ac1f60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | 74,850,341 | 74,850,341 |
32fd96aed02b77bad5ec4a471703af4db29f9b41 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x963eb42f6518515ffcff70e129e9911ec91d434a0174a2e7c98742785d503f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET
Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. O... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | 74,850,342 | 74,850,342 |
bfc0ebacbe29576fee8d92610eee550e780fc270 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0xcb9d1db96fd0f0e4977fc89f37820f95579e421a0bbfa9547ff609dce95e0e55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up or Dow... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 2AM ET | 74,850,342 | 74,850,342 |
5ffb1c72f4912859ac9cf3473429b6ad35756bc7 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0xa3d348b9e959dcb461e3762ea2c678eca7bb9280613b13f398e4eadd8ce3c79a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 12PM ET | 74,850,353 | 74,850,353 |
a4581c8cf306fca307695270ae95eea946aaeccb | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x0bc720886719330cdc851a2ed2cc9084f167d5fddeb3b983e9276bf1fbfd8bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | 75,248,329 | 75,248,329 |
d56c26c09a1c3a7447d61352939e656120c412b2 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x8e571f9c1c9586de50cde5d58d50ef8a3f59c5088e81a60fb4a686b8fcc99f3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-10-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 4PM ET | 75,248,329 | 75,248,329 |
799c915b082f291bc3bcad83ac7de5e712045bd5 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0xfe016c31ae24f5ca7d7c12e9265cd9085de34d4f4728873aa333e49b2562821b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-9-7pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 7PM ET | 75,248,330 | 75,248,330 |
645d5a2674f97c3df7b1ef3af0900f9095d7640a | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x46853e96ccf6ceb998777b80c2e80a03abd1d5683c5adc1e27032cab9fccf156 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-10-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 8PM ET | 75,248,332 | 75,248,332 |
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