sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
874015f5e39a59021d8c201f0ff322a866c00b4b | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0xa36ddda357400baae1ec8ad1a753aa2f5ff68c588839f17c512ef02785418b8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-10-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 3PM ET | 75,248,335 | 75,248,335 |
82f0bc744c34a6f1fe3e3ded72006787e82d98b9 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0xe1184f8a612e6278ad74ae04d860261d527eb0aa4bfcb9eda62be9a057a6528d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-9-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 8PM ET | 75,248,336 | 75,248,336 |
fd2f13faba514ff20b5060f4a4074ff33187d02c | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x46778118cc29ab65dce3d26cd9d8e4faa8304856e2923dd7f4149b44333b7649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-15-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 11PM ET | 75,272,716 | 75,272,716 |
4d59562d8541af109d2233bb1d24ab401e2cd294 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x1c5bbfa203ddc75e2551cf41c1aec523b5d3dae2e1b9deb1804c627c234a1796 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-21-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 21, 6PM ET | 75,505,915 | 75,505,915 |
116f752ef8824dd5ab4eb66fb62070a216cdcc89 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x999d12a0cdadc3ce141f3f1a3fb98520df22ad6f0b2425eb47ea22b6f18875e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-21-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 21, 2AM ET | 75,505,915 | 75,505,915 |
335702be07d673bdbcc95e6901db0b956788885f | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0x37469e9dd6d8b7d4d6cda2c5eefd66fcf946678fe8e48c4522d9dfef470bc40c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-17-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 3PM ET | 75,505,916 | 75,505,916 |
4fe91c710eb6ba9ee071c2a9b1798e8f309314a4 | 0x32526c1de010a670eed9a5fbddacccb551c17830 | 0xacb98d84665585ce460bf92481a8f371055f6377df00bc4ab1278ecb2e7d3569 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-1-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 3,... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-21-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 21, 10AM ET | 75,505,916 | 75,505,916 |
7cfc3248e3708eb0b61e77f02279b5b43fb15313 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc5dbb81733cf2c0697062477154e0e03d13ce3cde306fe84815b4d48e335e1f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | 75,898,144 | 75,898,144 |
a4ffde3b662b158d9ffd5c52e883b0e824eceb5c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x7d08a68e9ba42235b3887549715088c6c4bd3d09e96ca47bfc64106b93da440b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5
Predict the user's choice an... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | 75,929,105 | 75,929,105 |
1ca031192ceaefed5e6a491ad6c997c438c938c7 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xd4e0ecce5bbbe10ca5d8f39a2cb0a25d5bbacf45d6f1b62fac1d171e18c2885f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target ... | yes | 1 | seattle-sounders-vs-inter-miami-90-min-result | Will Inter Miami beat Seattle Sounders? | 75,929,105 | 75,929,105 |
55d96e05466c269a30b0f71fa4c1fd7adad4ebf0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe0b19bf7598274c74d10d1a18cdbdea9e681b4a50de316d79b3bfeb76c5ee1c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-31? | 75,929,105 | 75,929,105 |
deeceb0bac0d3ffcfb28aaa1c8a0bb3dec5375af | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x530ce11e24c91a3fa794fdb60c0e9bf9e529ef0db4bcf3cf7503505e234675a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5? | 75,979,499 | 75,979,499 |
07fcb1c3a84052866bc26e9a648dc88dc30b4647 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x9fc53eb2cdc3ca8b6ef2540538460e7643c52e9ef51aada24cf88ce8bbce081d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5? | 75,979,499 | 75,979,499 |
2491fffe894c7f814e147c25141aaf5e53baeabb | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xaefaf1274db91443c348095f5598b1118f278b0edd7cb4bb97c090aae75d455e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5? | 75,979,499 | 75,979,499 |
02bc7c8359c808938530b342e99692d5fe71cd09 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe5d5cb04b11fddd9d7ba0ad903246949360abdf8a712c74a9b6f2b7699c30543 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5? | 75,979,499 | 75,979,499 |
3b542aceb40cc8ecac80e598fa25a6891f38789c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf1ae4f958bb06421edaf2e4e17ce2a89a791a6035fd3cab76dca024f770af606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5? | 75,979,499 | 75,979,499 |
5d55b43781fc9056ea70afebac9f19bcc9097f35 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xcc8e35e23ac9e26466f1114806fb8ab98cd2ddb5a571ae4ecb5883e10268569a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5? | 76,014,990 | 76,014,990 |
75a6b093aa1cbff9735d5bb20e454ec77c950391 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1bb9f20333f950a1da0221e8046617401adc4ea0481a0bea5b12a6808e1eb4b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5? | 76,049,286 | 76,049,286 |
315f29727261809b4c2633ad0db8d15e826b3f1d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x413d610e01b4ee4bdffcfb5f694120f7255477e35bd82f9df60b5827a9df42d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 360 and 389 times August 29–September 5? | 76,049,286 | 76,049,286 |
8add619064b2ce0d20dc5cfefabc1c75a53fee93 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x79bc3dc56ce9db49e66fa30a8e9c4b28f844ea7eb2fce82d2b296ebfaaea4813 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? | 76,090,982 | 76,090,982 |
1c72045e2126d0760a1adda20e8537179f0724a8 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbb04768a8f7aad1258b58403d5eae705275cf33217439c7b027ab0c3defaa112 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5? | 76,090,982 | 76,090,982 |
688deeadc587ed1bcdcc89aba61f90c2d17b172d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4df8e949a973a2c47b550fdbbe4d7925dd997e8e83513dcfbf3227e5d9e16967 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on September 5? | 76,102,161 | 76,102,161 |
c1fb536a05ae1d3d388782dd48d030aef87b696d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8727ae9688e6f527d64eeece3dab49623c50049d2fd4d410567756b1a5b1c582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5? | 76,102,161 | 76,102,161 |
2c0589c1adb82a2610874be9ce82dbda36b0ef9d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8976d90d375bf7e2786a66817fcbd55e500f6ad7094e8bd37fbf4992924a063a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on September 5? | 76,102,161 | 76,102,161 |
6d7758c69ce3e744ad7258cbecc3293cf7362e62 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8cfa22ae2249af327c193069f89e95b01ecead4d19c6b07756864ae2ba3077af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5? | 76,102,161 | 76,102,161 |
600d1cf237b663ae822866c45f87b27e602547f4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8e2c7a1aec5fb75bd1233023f5dc7478777a6afa6aa2d22e171eb50c077cc601 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5? | 76,102,161 | 76,102,161 |
473653c805055f4af244f10634bec0bc76236402 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xb35d1202ceb581442f10fa8e08ac1067668b81a1c812d0983e41bc828b19ccef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5? | 76,102,161 | 76,102,161 |
4436b7d875da0669435f11c781db15ba6bdffad5 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xcd51a20b675bf0fd78509628e2715e1dfa62d39162d1451d0cb76d14ed31471f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on September 5? | 76,102,161 | 76,102,161 |
d80d3ec5545584f77721d24be23f6e54061e47e1 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe8c146c06e88691e681a8e2285a01d1fde3ffba79235cf1e93c808c44d14b1b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on September 5? | 76,102,161 | 76,102,161 |
4ba3c77472b2081bc586cb233f69326b8c71ad7a | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x58d4e2f4a0caf88c8d19d0df507e0228c82dc5a9a22d9197db3c4a72e6c74fe8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? | 76,102,175 | 76,102,175 |
c1284592457fdbd78caa05031b9eed21e437ca63 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1b2c28a89e453213067a081fd6bb39bd27595f75ff9d448093f980c250d001a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-smr-bih-2025-09-06 | Will San Marino win on 2025-09-06? | 76,143,675 | 76,143,675 |
9341ac3479b7b134e50ae661a84b408caf9d7c75 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4a90f11fcafb7146a41dd74c98481cec17367a6ee683542c2ac920957a6e1053 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-ire-hun-2025-09-06 | Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-06? | 76,143,675 | 76,143,675 |
563a4a96f651746602ec0cbe3531134d548dcbdc | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x24c5f07384189719b6ac33e0cd38ea8cf8e1fb8fa3fd2279b01454bcdfdd5db6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-aut-cyp-2025-09-06 | Will Cyprus win on 2025-09-06? | 76,174,496 | 76,174,496 |
9297b7764b53b89d7848fec0f85e1b6d52c1492c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2b11c09b39dca3074356a4c108102f7795c40db9ea5b91556c47741cbea5bd8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Will United States vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | 76,174,496 | 76,174,496 |
892c2857fab5c409cd817533bc27d5e866fea903 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x10370f4f5578fc271a64e61b9e5a0a67d98ec3e02a29762e6540a6d58293306e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-lit-nld-2025-09-07 | Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-07? | 76,182,034 | 76,182,034 |
dae30d1af4f6d97869831e3b6c523e585c2c8133 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2d7884db0de102f5b8f3b3ec5a800c199de9c07716327f85c0776db5c2c57179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-mac-lie-2025-09-07 | Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-09-07? | 76,182,034 | 76,182,034 |
11f90f04b2c947e61a27de72483bf06945f06518 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1237d0fcbc3347f86e69117f0c201f9cb68e7213977ff5ab1fbca85b35551f52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-pol-fin-2025-09-07 | Will Finland win on 2025-09-07? | 76,213,528 | 76,213,528 |
851dc9847e87a4c4d9f2a5f8da6a84df866bb9c6 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xb52d0e836c9605d8dc38633c71a53091a0b6047e62d71becc92bc1c636b9bb7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-nir-2025-09-07 | Will Germany vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? | 76,213,528 | 76,213,528 |
46866cefda8bf329df561b6635e28e95dc164ee3 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xcf8d4a09d434c4d20ab2868abda980834231485751f4e685dc05f4233bb6cf0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami beat Seattle Sounders? | Event: seattle-sounders-vs-inter-miami-90-min-result | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | uef-tur-esp-2025-09-07 | Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-07? | 76,213,528 | 76,213,528 |
42c6a381d3ac5bd54168b13a43cd1e52c461dc2d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf7576a438f7e0dbf957508666e8f4703373429d365592b946a0567843fd69889 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami beat Seattle Sounders? | Event: seattle-sounders-vs-inter-miami-90-min-result | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-31? | Event: lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August ... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-nir-2025-09-07 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-07? | 76,213,528 | 76,213,528 |
af9e59bef529c9ab3c77b2fafe3cba6b08a9f433 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1eecd713f81c2f3f3a673ff2b59bcdd2200206870d27bff3e4318856ba9b1fba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-31? | Event: lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 325–339 time... | yes | 1 | uef-hrv-mon-2025-09-08 | Will Montenegro win on 2025-09-08? | 76,251,600 | 76,251,600 |
40d285be88ac7db306b481f7e15c1f72227a6a2d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x205ad48baf4fb143034cb596f11da21c5b7a099ac9da7ecf41dea6eadf88fc7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Will Israel win on 2025-09-08? | 76,251,600 | 76,251,600 |
9770392462e2ec6dc94f66575b24903cbf8696ed | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf361d88fc68c9ea9450e5b756d4413b253a39d85ad1dd4a5b8bf6f8044f8383c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-che-slv-2025-09-08 | Will Slovenia win on 2025-09-08? | 76,251,600 | 76,251,600 |
c3e2a84c6341983e4e14aecf536f71a75d0cf987 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xacc45b780a7d4859d28d0f1b33eedea94f8fcbb915c6dc02885088c4fb156bc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09? | 76,261,115 | 76,261,115 |
175a4cb7aadd7df68d87d98c41166fc2f5e8fe6b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1c970fb7c340733e0dda5e12f856c6a8699ddfa0c434ccb66eb63cd47397a493 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-nor-mol-2025-09-08 | Will Moldova win on 2025-09-08? | 76,278,880 | 76,278,880 |
edf5fdf9880cba9948f7197b92ffa776808dee6c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2dcad5cd21ad4a8ecf20070e37b463c8ba4aa6f623f592d7eb07425b066e6da9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-lat-2025-09-09 | Will Latvia win on 2025-09-09? | 76,278,880 | 76,278,880 |
f56df4faf815be5a557f36cf2d18734be1ef4561 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4531780cc51a5efbf0754f316f8e563d7cacec35942acc511863c7b35bd42eed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | con-ecu-arg-2025-09-09 | Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? | 76,278,880 | 76,278,880 |
a97f324acf8b2d6f496d13376a0466eff8b19cd7 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe2547fc53c4d4142432bfd1943f687bf06e50ba030b4e75b0a2a70ff7fb52783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 360 and 389 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | uef-nor-mol-2025-09-09 | Will Moldova win on 2025-09-09? | 76,278,880 | 76,278,880 |
7658b3c51e8796cb9b03093140f3441a35621c6b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe3e7926f1bd65e208109f51d80d193da22e1eedf4a012d83d47b4b8751c06e89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 360 and 389 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Will Serbia win on 2025-09-09? | 76,278,880 | 76,278,880 |
da37ca9fe2d9931c32880c42abe8a2735477cbd1 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdf220cc2f402846ace2be33e7e148adae9b4a863578c08d312e40f366ee19af1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | 76,332,922 | 76,332,922 |
932245ead85cdbc9bfe531b2f3950dd626f7be57 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xef978eb7485781f08df025c536c253eb21d9f7f9d063ea11ef81b883b570f582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on September 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? | 76,366,248 | 76,366,248 |
6f385553b6c5b3b3b2ee9d0e3114152f9e536611 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x54ad898f4bd3d4d3d23f7b42a2d1d87e0c4d6a251b70f8ff97408a5a7d92f307 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on September 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12? | 76,370,060 | 76,370,060 |
2bb7719fe2abd98bf512ef0cfd04a77bec79caa6 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdaca8998a906cbbb2558972ae43730c65aface7a41c992287b0cfd4c40bb8931 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on September 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 480 and 499 times September 5–12? | 76,370,060 | 76,370,060 |
244bd7d5dfd4a0e01e7f8360a21fb73abc668146 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x9aaa9c6c60544167b7de20ba9f184cb8043b39ec074a861e9bb28d4c9fff6472 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on September 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? | 76,370,211 | 76,370,211 |
d5519904b804743281ce20cccb1c67a218f29e8e | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x47dd05688aeb06e5d975c2384bc219f06854efad9cdaa43b38edde9900909191 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? | 76,371,603 | 76,371,603 |
5f6c440a18f75a50248888035fce93a99650d48f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x6f2f0094afd1aee6e5e47c64b83e92708e1a523e10cf83a944f6647d08cd1ccd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? | 76,371,603 | 76,371,603 |
df0279ac3619e181ed508cdcf1ccbe384c8378a4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x71668dbdb29d1f45afa92640c28c7177919344bb6762aa557c43b66d40e69b9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on September 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 420 and 439 times September 5–12? | 76,371,603 | 76,371,603 |
5e112b5297a98c9bdc22636470b3d2d22f1102fc | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x92a06c7467398840ea2a36083ea9caa02aea65a4d9cbfad713438c0568a9bf04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on September 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on September 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 440 and 459 times September 5–12? | 76,371,603 | 76,371,603 |
0bbd04e1306b190cb5707be29f307df8137e9d6c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdaa122caf32c9e45f8352b25d1ce0e5227b6c50d67e5e7f88700e28f7f666282 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on September 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12? | 76,371,603 | 76,371,603 |
7fca702b729527a76523520515960fd5650b711c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x0e713da86bc51b0cc2ac5b2a77055974dc479b11bb44019c594df35a62b77116 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-29-september-5-629 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will San Marino win on 2025-09-06? | Event: uef-smr-bih-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Republic of... | yes | 1 | bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-12? | 76,439,172 | 76,439,172 |
5754db8da7bca9544cffedea3fe394635fd5e77f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x9e0d194f3d63ce7d5443c0c8f277830f0c22ce0ba6a14164f9b2eb0464d235f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will San Marino win on 2025-09-06? | Event: uef-smr-bih-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-06? | Event: uef-ire-hun-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cyprus win on 2025-09-06? | Event: uef-aut-cyp-2025-09-... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-13? | 76,439,172 | 76,439,172 |
0135af524a3cd75805067ad28e35a0b90431db35 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe61fe51ea2e927f692d0d8c921d44e67187e7a9cf9aa477b390fae6d764d0b02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-06? | Event: uef-ire-hun-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cyprus win on 2025-09-06? | Event: uef-aut-cyp-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United States vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Event: fi... | yes | 1 | mls-clt-mia-2025-09-13 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-13? | 76,439,172 | 76,439,172 |
43d860f0ba2905b85f88b2dbc249bb308b382948 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xeb46b0156ecda9bb3121a74472f6675749f51569fb89930855e89d817c73cfe5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cyprus win on 2025-09-06? | Event: uef-aut-cyp-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will United States vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-lit-nld... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-vil-2025-09-13 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-13? | 76,439,172 | 76,439,172 |
e244007b97fc1aca1600322d89b8cf0948de4763 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x0c2273b413c77ec23ed5f558b40b3dee131e0819aaadd9a161c37ca0e9a51d49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will United States vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-lit-nld-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-tor-2025-09-14 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-14? | 76,456,131 | 76,456,131 |
d46919e96b407368434dc0c3477155101b5996b5 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3c44e8ad76237bdac03612785211baf3bc47c77424ebeea44c6ac2aa0b3a7689 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-lit-nld-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-mac-lie-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-pol-fin-2025-09-07 | C... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-gir-2025-09-14 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-14? | 76,456,131 | 76,456,131 |
8cc4de01076154d82663ace924b93a9b23690e8d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x624b7f6735f380fae2a05482167c101dc675f080120398cdfa8a9996d8a804c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-mac-lie-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-pol-fin-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? | Event: uef-ger-nir... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | 76,456,131 | 76,456,131 |
a9a86408e13e0d1ae1116e72f19453ac7f406512 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc0fe7d565785e8eef78778c9aae46ce84c6ea5ad069288c90abab3b8ccf51c2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-pol-fin-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? | Event: uef-ger-nir-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-tur-esp-2025-... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-tor-2025-09-14 | Will AS Roma vs. Torino end in a draw? | 76,456,131 | 76,456,131 |
7fe321411e9b2d2194769071da7f023a7e9eff74 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc23da160689e7759f04e69235401d9caa5a73030fcdfc46eb466ba8611b9b536 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? | Event: uef-ger-nir-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-tur-esp-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-ger-... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | 76,456,131 | 76,456,131 |
9ec1ed960827bbf3dba0cdc0a640e5f5e9eae7e5 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3b2a232e323eba7d1f742f3c7cb6b4d90a8757e321989ac577dc29fe2ec2b421 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-tur-esp-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-ger-nir-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Montenegro win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-hrv-mon-2025-09-08... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? | 76,494,506 | 76,494,506 |
79669ee7490b7733413dd5f62e9697c35b1f4def | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x630d186f7d00ec7a3814183b29ef01526c4fc6142cc86841bd6ec2bb377b3b02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-07? | Event: uef-ger-nir-2025-09-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Montenegro win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-hrv-mon-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,494,506 | 76,494,506 |
e2a2a94b90f0636fee6ea4138e927aa12dfdd863 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x7bcea01e59b19c98261fbbfb2cd2b1643a6a53a6ab71a4ae8c6a2d5c8df84001 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Montenegro win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-hrv-mon-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-che-slv-2025-09-08 | Choice... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,494,506 | 76,494,506 |
3788fe2b90e8b330a9a58a96b81d58e24745aedb | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x24be88087d99b6be45ff486e21c6b7d5a80e354c238c66be1bd70d1f34d04012 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-che-slv-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Choice... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
5ba0dfac1e97341b14d6df798430aedb75b27e44 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x29932881f1b4915f204bd5f65de9b206b53af75af7624bc25c34d9da02bbb113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-che-slv-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Moldova win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-nor-mol-2025-09-08 | Choic... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
6769d12166215acded35217c4eb6224fe0e0debc | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2d5b3f4dd2b44e9ac0c6f1f42cb6d36650fee8209a54aa84fe0f98d286984722 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Moldova win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-nor-mol-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-alb-lat-2025-09-09 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
3808415dc279df73924be6f55d05b0bf380151f3 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2f5978c2cd3290fe50d8175a3a66658b7ff0dc9822839cf09d89aeefd1738d57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Moldova win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-nor-mol-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-alb-lat-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? | Event: con-ecu-arg-2025-09-09 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
13e7e84449741e1a782328ffffe6bae78baf61d9 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x45cadffd1ee1649fd5094a816fa8b7b5303342d85a24fbdcb4e487f80f049f93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-alb-lat-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? | Event: con-ecu-arg-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Moldova win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-nor-mol-2025-09-09 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
f554f46e5b60091008f08001a2f8815307326de4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x515b5d38839b2055b569f91a9188eac06242efcb3afb44d61f97907289226b3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? | Event: con-ecu-arg-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Moldova win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-nor-mol-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
1cf5566a4cd2a2195c17ad3c2ab633c6734a39f3 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x58081fd552b1298d16bc1d9f49ef421b47ce73b692919a185dd9567434d7b360 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Moldova win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-nor-mol-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tw... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
41d9ab74f0b646208a4de8f4cc0792b98e2ff794 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x786ae71c554140ce9e99015a46ab62d1526f432a7aecc4be684025400802b7d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times Se... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
f32d0e19bbf3c773c502d147800f38941daefac1 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x85312f8d5193c7efc5d29342c5b4e8b4fff203ff0b3a2bee7fab3b5c8c6a2d18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
c9d9cc76e9cf9a4ed8ab08002d0f6c2119bef6f8 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe28fefd95208ce8693431213e4f43e4bb733db50a65405788f06079155e04ed5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,532,734 | 76,532,734 |
f03e9065f489ec737bd122766d7b5057da2acf1f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1747a5c2c9e74c6866481c9d5cea26a994a00278d9a40f6e6b22c0624f471ac3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 480 and 499 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16? | 76,570,180 | 76,570,180 |
6863f9b2941e171113db740147cc83dcc9e10a6f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x19d0ec4ea6a369438636ee6b30d065bd5b8cc57fe9849037ab53ca548cb49774 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 480 and 499 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | 76,570,180 | 76,570,180 |
25d217198bbbe337657ea029893835ccec0c5335 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 76,611,655 | 76,611,655 |
2c08ff1a25224dc3cda806b096011a509625783f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3b20206584ac090a1e32278ca7c02a296e4fde8050774a8a2e44e22597509ee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-cfc-2025-09-17 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-17? | 76,611,655 | 76,611,655 |
143c25207abd5c6e44a6c426e36e0597e6cfd4cf | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x427c5076f58c30113d97c335e9693b6d1146dc8c079d8b58998360d821b8bfa7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 420 and 439 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,611,655 | 76,611,655 |
972bd0abb36e0ee6662e27314e36e8db357d5760 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4a0a6f3fda470bd729e7b87e7af7c987027855748fa9aeb30ae4e85ce5babb7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 420 and 439 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 440 and 459 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-17? | 76,611,655 | 76,611,655 |
d3807dacedffc8ebfa265263b7151fe8b5768deb | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 440 and 459 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,611,655 | 76,611,655 |
dceed509883dcc4345380d72cdeed56ba66e23ff | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xaa39ad4af6550e155727abb9e4706387ce52993bbe7fd78a8b53d403545891c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-12? | Event: bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest wi... | yes | 1 | ucl-aja-int-2025-09-17 | Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-17? | 76,611,655 | 76,611,655 |
57811fa8ae314e8334da4851db9d1089e45b4849 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xd28231a95350f4bf772edd72aa1843a327e37c441c3bcc795eecb2873739f3ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-12? | Event: bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-13? | Event: mls-c... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | 76,611,655 | 76,611,655 |
31599e091375b1389a60cecd6508d52aa94cc5ac | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe8d095422da9f6c3ceed727a4b6251177f618b002d2a698bfccb48716c7aa469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-13? | Event: epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-13? | Event: mls-clt-mia-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-mad-vil-20... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,611,655 | 76,611,655 |
4c1e03294ef87fa536f76f79b1d2eeedc61f1e08 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xde57a3ab0f35ebc62125761953d23606f3b5958e2cabe7b7dccdc17c883e7a57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-13? | Event: mls-clt-mia-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-mad-vil-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-14? | Event: sea-rom-tor-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Will Napoli win on 2025-09-18? | 76,637,650 | 76,637,650 |
ce37a1435ee33e6426e588242c482004440c0761 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf613b5e17a81fa7cc56e9e2932ae85b34960e27c5b1c25451345a06ab2382ea9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-mad-vil-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-14? | Event: sea-rom-tor-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-cel-gir-2025-09-14 | Cho... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,637,650 | 76,637,650 |
3abe6cee820b5e4341fbec05a0a443b81470c5d2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1daea9151a326f6a9a6fbf89e3b68a268b7f5b229653b934aab112c5def6af58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-14? | Event: sea-rom-tor-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-cel-gir-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-1... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
2b87ca7671f2f4df099d210a07c9691b2f545d11 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3d115042240bb58f403e014300b75e996de5eee470ac918e5f6b84a7574f05fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-cel-gir-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-rom-tor-20... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
a60f36175b757442b6ff5a749f7f7a4367885f08 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x5707215201756e7da0f93c6722a4da6dd58dc2edba8fe01861b608cea49a02fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-rom-tor-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-20... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
b065c72ace348a93018a2e921f0c69775cfba2ec | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x69d0723a52e0724172ba04a6acce9fe2413110cfe8a1ef8d31c5c003d072e869 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-rom-tor-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
2a1c55d5a8d354b5e241ec02991d58cf2442f20c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x7868ba97e29ca4c215a8291463adc71c6ac3aa9c497273c5e3b298c6ceb2a535 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 20... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
23b1b50369860824953fc0067095a7727b7566d6 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xb0710c122a7a1a3d3879c7786ad35bacd74b67037d63d38b764faa1e3e4aad3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
e1cb85cf27318910667240c5006c2b39e8e9ea69 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbe43ac7db40c5f66943ca6e971d2a3aaf7b6b4bccaa9603ec1b37631aa85dfc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
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