sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78f45d09d416f1eba527ddfe72ab894efab3e624 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbe7402ac5e724798163e0f00e1c3c8ffe100285c6ab8e8579a9ba2211617365a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
743811cf91b8ac7c704b6b4cffa45fa03fa8d669 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe01cea9a2c993527ae7f0d7b3b2039afe755c019e3c4e8fb430a3a96ebc8f34a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,653,055 | 76,653,055 |
a420b667dc6b70340cd169a0ab2392c2f5f86980 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x02808ade4ad5e2b3d53dbe3a0af93f56a6baad46902349a771dac5ae4b4a4211 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,657,954 | 76,657,954 |
39d29e5b764b88bd879b701ae41ea40aa1533eea | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x23503f3060b0ea234bde452cf53a533da7c28c8b39d17abe7e6738b68683dd7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,657,954 | 76,657,954 |
8a9c7d2455ee6bfd5a662ce4c4b89b05fb9d3a13 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc3bbc563eede54e1b2fcb690f2ba2ff89179ed736354e40a47f535c4b0e5e150 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | 76,657,954 | 76,657,954 |
7df2077a813f751abc21ef5c4563f67bb42c2e4f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2f373d0fb0c5a960fa27e3935554a383251ea30339e5a4edf1fad46f9f71cb94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Will Everton win on 2025-09-20? | 76,692,824 | 76,692,824 |
2abaea5e97fd35387a50c7a0c777b7f156ebbc42 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4b89d55add2dbf0f5c2b0e2781589511218397fd7140e8ed6a26c60b6d2978fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-tot-2025-09-20 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? | 76,693,923 | 76,693,923 |
340c992b43821d7faabf6c573204d045200a611c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x765453a0d71f8152e313b7402985c62f38cc75467dbefdc117ad6c6dfde7ab55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Will Manchester United vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 76,697,102 | 76,697,102 |
8c6ac7875876746aca205b546ebabaf98b6c3584 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbfb60c899c3f90c0db94aeabf0b437f004d8a7e059da5c0def434ee7b3c58b0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | 76,697,102 | 76,697,102 |
a0b507a28677d16815c29b109e366bd0644ad668 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3a5bf40de44c92a9e1aa585e74bca318c562222cb67bea70da7b9b9d97da4b4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-sep... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,719,893 | 76,719,893 |
bfbc3e05c2e0d9e7ad9cb7f343c9fc51f64f4c75 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x099e8c4083a5e7ba05290ace011aa6bba27814450cfc4b642609e229af18adbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-new-2025-09-21 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-21? | 76,734,765 | 76,734,765 |
3f07628f02b62bd98a65ae3e280f0d0d6dab09c2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x259182a4a8da9964b26f38cc157127e7a345cc55e0daa9b0604326a8aee8de9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16? | Event: ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-ast-2025-09-21 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-21? | 76,734,765 | 76,734,765 |
587d9017b847cf2c85eb66cae30341499c4b5818 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x145ff557ed79e625c505ba4119dbf10642e0990004ea51f690b35a18ebb8edb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | 76,737,437 | 76,737,437 |
0e536147d070b9576fd0571b3d44eb8d9e997b8b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x782455b32dab9b77c20d3ccbbb4fe1d52b2a41117799040b79bad9cf3e599d04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-bay-cfc-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from Se... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,737,437 | 76,737,437 |
4088cafddb0a2d125b3b2d7ebd36e717b909ec6c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x04a5ca37fd16cf376589cf62b780ca53b524acba2eccac7583a662ae6738504f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-bay-cfc-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atl... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,809,611 | 76,809,611 |
40449a829da291dd1145aa112bb44c563e719374 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x01f6fec028fc2d1e483f0013d4d94a9554972e40727164acfaf9d57c63a7f135 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
e56a37adfd9b0b4490c38606e3053597b1ae4ae8 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2895507c9d239c419357ea07d8fa140b90c555bea9ed951b2ba335d7b14310c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ajax Amsterdam win on... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
d3e583c9c0e698b75fdf234e3dfaf4c5e3313bbb | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3e838872ba5f0248b2f2d286e8fc6e857ea73d6c2c75360586ce4000dfa804d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-aja-int-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Atletico... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
5cb3c95e39f1d55fb8691b9e9fe8ee1182738ece | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x67d170f914b3f4b4de1176f856f68e109010661ccbfd3c0e57fc840c12bf94f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-17? | Event: ucl-aja-int-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after Sept... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
92affcb290cf596fa7e73b560e14c08ce9c470db | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xa372387ff2de628dd2097d889a34b5cf08a6fcdd8e59b254400e0b47506c557e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Napoli win ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
46f773852cd1b516943d63baf5088968e18ccfd7 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbbef36a05daa2900d1ee2395c76e27fffbf82bb06e5459592319cd27a8e7136f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
6a569d6d5bdf1e7a3c39753c9da6589f1ff941d0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xda186d701ecfa8c63340821f4f4bf943ec05cb602ff77c334ef6fd19f4e0d5f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
a7bbb2dd38889bdf26526b2df9ed417209d3ed96 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdef2698ca5ab8e6648aab5053298b850f5d9f72e64c2beb86c1f73c02ecbe87a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
4a73e2f9d4bb1a149a25c91db2b50a4cd7151316 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf518e6499382f7317af7e32025b8f16d2f3562dce9339fda61db0e744e0d456f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,815,336 | 76,815,336 |
6a91fde780443059a85572255d2efdd64594b28b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x6c15013be9644dab0735aeac483693d2daeb1d9d9a81c61083df300a14751a5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,819,226 | 76,819,226 |
cb97b787c69a4515b440c34c08c4510da60cb2a7 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x7ae984292149b3906e7a340c91f0da325e1ee97d8cea24b61d66977575383922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,819,226 | 76,819,226 |
beb134d99089ec94ad9e96bc67158423a4daf0d0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x88f59f2d7859de23fd0373d1a908a1808a965d844f7d70e328605351584e75de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,819,226 | 76,819,226 |
84582a48fc9a32a79729a3531940332452003f35 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x26841ef913afddc8fe1ff2b5e2a0731111fd33c09e1c9091b6e604d0d9fcbf41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24? | 76,896,825 | 76,896,825 |
e89f3586afabacc09372c1ebe50956d435966790 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdef0ca8d4240fb9ad56025f7d0f92f075149da1d6b979b9cffd7ac8ff302c5ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,926,765 | 76,926,765 |
18d2d444f4154a142217c60c9c8a0eb8efb3f879 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1c7e9af9d0285c90a9545ba43f973e75bc07eedeeb01f91640ac280235797d61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,937,428 | 76,937,428 |
4296a8dee323c2599c94e0e6ffd9bc10d8728118 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3aede5fbe88ea876bcc54eb838280d86feb472f165457c8138d073300fd9c37e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,937,428 | 76,937,428 |
864a2c3859641d7f5acabe5ad998a16468f03ea0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x632e4cb11fa32f91d418a579351d8f1914ef8574195cf236064da499ecc8c9ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,937,428 | 76,937,428 |
3b5657aaa740d44266e9d88660da0c0e9f1006a4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x9f3131ca0beeecb338abd0ef4f465be009653fa00324ad9328226abe74717dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,937,428 | 76,937,428 |
616b9ad5ccd216d6fc4e06a5fe5f46b409c231db | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdf86e2f1d35b0552e5c93ee0ab0bff9d538c8855abe2ce14a930bde08ab67fc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,937,428 | 76,937,428 |
463934633f4bad26abf7504d559c7df9025526a7 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe179272c73323cd304beb50df57c42f59266f7f69c53399c8fe484df33a25ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-12-september-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tot... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,937,428 | 76,937,428 |
45d220597e896d990b88b9ecd2c37d3de861c4a0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x55ad4284836638c6936aa50bdfeed5f243fe99f30f265714b17b68f858d1d553 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-liv-eve-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-bri-tot-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-che-20... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,965,362 | 76,965,362 |
ea833d478ca6380d22cf7b6397283a029b471021 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x97c90c603a2e4261d2277fb00a5f4176ee7caaa8aaa9fc6986ec3ee865c2b38f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-bri-tot-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-20... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,965,362 | 76,965,362 |
46fe7c2985e41fafb2a7e8bd8663aac61c3e65c2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x9d20c25bfba348f67424ba9f927455bfcf499762e2cc981e8c8fee9ce3bd151a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 16 to S... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,965,362 | 76,965,362 |
380b83bafa6e22a972f7c0e597882c974cf0af00 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x1bf7c30ba20add13f88f9fb4cfa01ca79d3f1b4abb6cf8f2fb60cbf81010a49f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-mun-che-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will New... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? | 77,019,965 | 77,019,965 |
8724145447cffa6efd0782f5dd72690199574eb0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x249232c47daba6e79644d17b8c03248a197e609ed2168f37a16383827fd6ac85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-bou-new-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will S... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 77,055,402 | 77,055,402 |
409e6c39545f43af74e3ef28b32d6b978617a5b4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xbc7ae9ff5946d33d34b95aafb6c3095958d80c114b14baea274657fea7c13854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-bou-new-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-sun-ast-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Will West Ham win on 2025-09-29? | 77,079,379 | 77,079,379 |
4cc4d945b4dab845a3125efe5b310a4d7e1487f2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x0d2d7213de9ec3e8ce824417c6cafc9b226d313e700163e14e110ee552ed2601 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-sun-ast-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 16 to September 23... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 77,098,481 | 77,098,481 |
378f0531ae507274eecb7cd30aab5798c7dd0dbe | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x16c2ef0c4204c3cb5f223d35e2e1956843d9ca41bbf32909d5a607d0ba40cd3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 77,098,481 | 77,098,481 |
50e5d2c7889edfcf0306104f53c63be9e60085d3 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x58d1633083b6e65377f4930a3f04acacb58af4d463e203dc5a173df9aea35d41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 77,098,481 | 77,098,481 |
098ff02ec6d9b35a958a50cf76889ef797f91004 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x61629650d18869146df74e3fab6ddd78cd9dcac8241187c2ba05395e61270047 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 77,098,481 | 77,098,481 |
f542fefe0fc3902fc95b0ded19c067f86dd6237a | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x69f53d0a677314d680cd94d5ddb0555d2f4bc0bd102dc615486b9df6d1d44593 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 77,098,481 | 77,098,481 |
0212ea651e15c2ff106324f96afe14729e59fa65 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x6faf3661053d83e4fe9ef80fcbc2474b1b9988e7a93caddf54cce0721f77e6eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 77,098,481 | 77,098,481 |
445c2be704a9f3a9000495ee20fe354ed3ffb8ec | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xca5fbb380a32b3a5e1bc7c4c0a3d72a4cacdf6983f7dcf06c43332b173ae4397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | 77,098,481 | 77,098,481 |
d9365ae6fab564dd93d2ebf1dd6a4167cccc1da0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x468c16c83d683ab273a90d662c9e41d0893cb1debc5c44d9ad9825f06d818980 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,116,671 | 77,116,671 |
5a1d4fd31e3efdbff966d3b7996ff4978201bbf2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xa0bb35a28ce8e92b8a2381a50bd4c472aef9e240ca5fadf1dd27d78b6e64a316 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Will Pafos FC win on 2025-09-30? | 77,116,671 | 77,116,671 |
2ed7f3ee00771ce94c7d642a5069aa1a0778fa87 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf495a559ccafb5bce93873cf6657185101ba8f9f1180350eebb5f720a447b492 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30? | 77,116,671 | 77,116,671 |
16afef973d5a7230e0149cf91918c288930f035d | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x15bc6a461dadefe3e23519d89d88b22c01cf07d269b4ec008ac49f105a7a9c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on August 31? | 77,135,334 | 77,135,334 |
e4751b2c8f0da5d05f2fa57d5d153098ed9379d3 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2e43f461239025832efc7c96ef329c6bc372b20524171434be61a97908d1b924 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on August 31? | 77,135,334 | 77,135,334 |
81cf7881ed41bdd536bc7d665054df5b3eba3c10 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xc39ac65b0cb667fba3e881b51b7277f64863be2ad707489f2b08958ab99e6fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on August 31? | 77,135,334 | 77,135,334 |
08428b91024dac8c7f700b9d2309a145521be245 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe9b72584578d13c0e0c42ffbe32a8f4742bd753b88f927f54415b8e97607868d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on August 31? | 77,135,334 | 77,135,334 |
bbac45307f68fbcb293dcbfd67f36a46c9b164a8 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf1dbe396cfe8d2b4bb180010fc5ef6f66668356fd859f02fb0479ed381981e0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,185,274 | 77,185,274 |
96e2c930c47a831d60015c1ab4e3635eebc12873 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2355d8cf4c374f6b73df5cd5370c86ddbde1e1a9ddc3176f83a7c3fdd2da709e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
7bdc0ac384c0f91d068df420f1557c7e7fb3c6d2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x3f8fe640edebff0ad85a3550e0544e898a8d9ff6b0b2e0eaa4cfb12714a3b070 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24? | Event: lal-mad-ray-2025-09-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
a7f9a0f5c8e6b54a067b7e18129849c3ca7a1cc7 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4fbea42d0b9ad4b3a39fb78a2c4a4c4e922eb73ddf9cc6b9c75d0db27fa90eea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
13df2d66b017b3bfb6bb7af63ec4326c2b9fac87 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x592faf6014f40e75e58c163d9b98b9467df91330012e8772a476bdde1112ea59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
dbc0116b21eeae5c81fcebddfa2c96772330e96a | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8e2f1adde82823979027ce56c4a21c52ffc1340b4ee07d84ff385e7bbcd5bd9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
794cd4c7676d48aea6934a1a08335136637b08c0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xd008deeb968abc56b46fad455206d485189efaa360a4f6b8692b0059c4b9cfb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
480d555c06b662393244ec78e5494b54a58eaa81 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xd6c7d213a426b850753fb99fbba9d31f7569ade952188a4025edf8780a1b26bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
dcd1560e408fe701cfbb6e250794d545a5e01295 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdcab20dc399d4cd5376ed8167f3e6a446bdfede6aa9cff19cb8641beb1292f76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
94a44c0287163d7389022e1fc8d4f89087130dad | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf822548d2741a8af96c571f27e21e637de671ceccd932990aacecbea5eba118e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | 77,248,532 | 77,248,532 |
b3f88797518cfd924a12fb6e5f2607fbcfe16294 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x251ba4af52bd4a37ad295a31df9396ec86791333ca2feb2c794841bb75f161d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-tot-2025-10-04 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-04? | 77,262,986 | 77,262,986 |
8ee8d6a87119ea8c8e7dd36a15dcf8c485cc92d4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x73c731f9536ef7184d834e1efe5172e0653d912febb4b05ff4654df310887d07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04? | 77,262,986 | 77,262,986 |
914534610ab6ff79fa2c0a12275b944a3cb373f2 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x881152672f9a0ba8a20ecce1a084435df792323c9877ff00893d35cd1d5fd8fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will E... | yes | 1 | mls-mia-ner-2025-10-04 | Will New England Revolution win on 2025-10-04? | 77,291,010 | 77,291,010 |
f6974c0e074710a2c1e626466b32079fe1ddcd61 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xa83ce70ffb7beb220002e9ccade3c26f91053c94c34c903d7b5bc1106a5312f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wes... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,291,010 | 77,291,010 |
fb7cf5a832fec0c0a045d294b590f48281e5c98c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x6989b8e46e91d1e235b57982c81fed0f1521540b41b2ec1b737476995c8d2c20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-09-29? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,295,441 | 77,295,441 |
1c757e355c525288ef97c19eb3ca0829d48e4bc6 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x6e0c78f0a3df2007ba6e3e4e25d9a48a0d64de96f2d9a8f73d716fdbbccb632c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-09-29? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will El... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Will Aston Villa vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? | 77,301,363 | 77,301,363 |
62f7b4fd87a39c593eaa09849c2872acef5e8b3f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xb8e3df902c59d8c65465a7076c0bb7c92d8ec7a664ffbea3bf05ef812310b3ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,301,363 | 77,301,363 |
88a151ea49cd99aa8bf374699855f46138965f30 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xca82e3dc15bfa5fc5e11ad6945e53143e1c30da21f3631b9090a9b8d17fe1354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | 77,304,052 | 77,304,052 |
f8d3ea4723771ca0b505ee9f79adb0b5a376b0b4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xf23e9de3124945b800e5ee05c572c91e4e9e791d99fcd5c0eeaefb44222f148a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 77,304,052 | 77,304,052 |
dc6686d34834ab003d946e9ed409a0e8f0021e0e | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x150c3533d57741847fbdc0ec3099ec4338ed7bc8f70050fd9d4c6ac665feea74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? | 77,323,841 | 77,323,841 |
6994014235ac8f22fb6dea69d185a11b4843f60b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2b6a5170c30fbeba1b2317cf98929a446af82e2dc2bc5e84a07959b35bc2edbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-10-05? | 77,323,841 | 77,323,841 |
f9a710fb53c66336c5a863e2fb3e6202c26f5db4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x306f0e6a07925d97b3197a17cd4d0dfb27a0c828d31106079cb96ec81fe5d6cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,323,841 | 77,323,841 |
45ee1081ddb11adc49e36480d74a18c26a84d0d7 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xfe5f665ddc2c2b7f8216e301540c81230edf14845f3ba6491402df1dd411c227 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-23-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-octo... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,323,841 | 77,323,841 |
b367b9d2e91a79f05ded20738080173aa8dbe336 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x14195e02843e01432ce8930613b804063cf9d8cedd74b29fc33145e0747e56fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pafos FC win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Kairat ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on October 7? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
70ad34153fa89c8d597763802403fb2bf4fe5c35 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x166b58a27fb649235d66fc3f77541e52a1e2d507b86c582aa2c184017dbf25b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pafos FC win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on August 3... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October 7? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
d795a07cabf4c01d2052f28fa0f6adfe7fe4d14a | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x2476e15a7d24f8c6ba041f8e8a948c5d5181637f03aec04a5a6792d60052ea1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on August 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk's ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
bb2a809f648cc3e3dcb67796b004d4c1f7242a04 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x399647024eaff13e4801e7e25175ce4d50f6cf9148bd55794d889ea99d5ee56d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on August 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on August 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
47f10e8a14221e0cbc561baf41ddfb596dd152af | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x48d4297f172e5802deae725d067e9135dacafb028f93861298cdfb643f096679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on August 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on August 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 7? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
04ec5c41bbaaea77f83979bf7dec9d459265233c | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x4bba354fd69253425bc42bd4530e435754c069968c70b6f2abf29202c2266fb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on August 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on August 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October 7? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
734e818bad55d33f43f51355f9eda17d535805c4 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x5aca385fc8511d3106419a90b996a5336ee0b051860aaf74892ac34a02eb289e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on August 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
8dacb752bc8789b7240b4d845876a8096c3eb9b0 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x5bb7be544800d50ee8b8c14b8ce07e63f2006bd5e5d5698247cecd3ef87c5e6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
8e133f6406b4078d2cc34f04138ea6f540a68573 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x614ba0ec9e84d9314092a099f0da0d2343285c9b7e478472208efc4082cab6d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
acc6855830d9951cf8de5d41a61c49d6c154b157 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xb70975fd7ce55d899b6c767d4d2334792c833c4dbbc05ebb5f53fb8021d9aced | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 7? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
a223d267ece5ef9d61d84f641fba21fca19473ae | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xdf20027189a6be71f6ad3556e1666eef0c624962b23f37a7254e388a185e77ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
212ed8de280c9e546fd5c792713370e3d1bab430 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe16b9f1d7f8f51e42503812aefd7436e7c06b90d577cebfbbf1c101fa3cc9c28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October 7? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
fbfd4c618a667dda136150fcfee1cdf8bb013acf | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0xe5d39b1630192707048020367667097dcbc2427e9907d92c6265e783e0f50444 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | 77,412,095 | 77,412,095 |
3756bdcb478949b6f62baec814bb368a33882c77 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x5c67727503bc72f15efd2b564c1f6e8fd250717fa60fd9cac83a4c47f8badfec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-9 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110,000 on October 9? | 77,467,943 | 77,467,943 |
723258c92a8f0640f8094c1fc4deaf6fd8335264 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x79dad466b258dd8877deb9e3455719d6272bf393038614f421fc5948a3b35ed7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | 77,502,653 | 77,502,653 |
a0f32880520a90f64f122f97e231d3bb8a9bde45 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x5121fdf3857464303b7c713973521e6c0916d09538b6f5ba0f15a089075c036d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | 77,548,483 | 77,548,483 |
ce40315bec6e7ed797802e78dfa3c1b59df3f337 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x65fc9ece32f93c9bfb5be08b6f9f50c973e2d6f87f7de069b77531b4f877129b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-26-october-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-lee-tot-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | 77,548,483 | 77,548,483 |
4e6507d1762bc92545be01c7e3a23a1900d23e0b | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x7b8f2ba873adeb8c9eba7adf4201351e9f2f933f606680d28df6b1e35abace8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-lee-tot-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will New England Revolution win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-mia-ner-2... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | 77,548,483 | 77,548,483 |
42e65d7930e87f85deb049ff6966f98e736368e5 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x810d667bb756e18f5d4434b15857b33d4d609fa72741ec15db476f9c5183429f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New England Revolution win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-mia-ner-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to Oct... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Will Georgia win on 2025-10-11? | 77,717,878 | 77,717,878 |
1eea9e3795d83378604aae53085c306a3bcef079 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x8c36590432cbfec00a700549464eaa06e1073b6620bb6358233e1416b7e16804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New England Revolution win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-mia-ner-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2025-10-18 | Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18? | 77,892,751 | 77,892,751 |
3ec1df5f79a6c93606bd42abe823a89d0a914c3f | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x9c177c932bac4e666ac4a7d1b9ebf2dcb198a5d7c47b082c6f4220f41341a3ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,892,751 | 77,892,751 |
516a19ed6a5e8d793240f144289d7eee78253176 | 0x32561fa3e9c134ff1766ef5db558d4719be5830c | 0x827ba5021867bd94058359fc2d397f252414c874f5d7ee522e4eb94282692607 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-30-october-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-ast-2025-10-19 | Will Tottenham vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 77,899,159 | 77,899,159 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.